Kennedy's Corridor

The End Of The Hall

2009-10-23T13:41:00.003-06:00

After having some time to think it through I have decided that Kennedy's Corridor has reached it's end. It was just over three years ago, in October of 2006, that I decided to start writing here. Racing was preparing for the Breeders' Cup just as it is today. I was eager to share my thoughts in a space dedicated to them. For the last three years I have sought to bring you informative and original content on this great sport of horse racing.

So why am I choosing to end things now right before the biggest day of the year? Basically I have decided that I no longer want a space dedicated to my opinion. In the beginning, despite the illusion of humility, I think I really wanted a chance to make a name for myself. I wanted to share ideas I had like the Thoroughbred Championship Rankings and the 20/20 systems. Things that were a bit different from what you could get at the mainstream sites.

After three years I think there are a few people in the niche community of online horse racing fans that recognize my name but I no longer consider that an achievement of any sort. I don't want to be a face or name in horse racing. I'm fully content to just be a fan of horse racing. It seems pointless to continue with something that is not directed towards a goal I consider to be valuable.

This doesn't mean I no longer like racing. I will still follow racing as a fan as I have always done. The Breeders' Cup is like a family holiday in my house but I will enjoy it no less because I don't have a blog. I fully enjoyed every Breeders' Cup prior to 2006 and I will continue to do so this year and for many more.

What of my standings? I created them with the intention of proving that it's possible for standings to be accurate and relevant in the sport of horse racing. I imagine that I'll continue to calculate them for my own benefit. It helps me follow racing as a fan.

I'm sure some people will wonder if I'm having some crisis of confidence or bout of depression. Nothing sinister is brewing below the surface. I simply had a revelation that in order to do this blog well (and I have always striven to do this well) I need to dedicate a lot of time to it and I don't think it's a beneficial use of my time. In the world away from this keyboard I have many things that keep me busy but all of them are geared towards more beneficial goals.

I have never been one for dramatic exits but I thought an explanation was due to those who visit this space on a regular basis. In the grand scheme of things our lives will be no worse off for the discontinuance of this space. I want more time to spend on the things that do count in the grand scheme.

Thanks for enjoying the sport along side me these past few years. It's been fun.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-10-23T10:30:00.006-06:00

This is the last installment of the Breeders' Cup Top 5 for the Female side. I had already posted my last run down for the male side just in time for Rail Trip (my #1 Classic horse) to be removed from consideration. I'm not going to go back and edit that list but Rip Van Winkle now becomes my #1 and Summer Bird moves back onto the list at #5. The pre-entries are released next week so the next time we talk about these races it will be as we actually handicap them.

October 23rd

Ladies Classic
1. Zenyatta (1)
2. Music Note (2)
3. Careless Jewel (3)
4. Mushka (4)
5. Life Is Sweet (new)

Dropped: Icon Project (5)

Sadly the time came to drop Icon Project from the list. A few weeks ago she was my number one pick for the race but physical issues have basically seen her removed from consideration.

It's the Breeders' Cup so few things are as simple as they look on paper but Zenyatta and Music Note, the 1st and 3rd finishers from last year, look like they're set to have another big match up and all the rest will have to perform well above themselves to compete.
Careless Jewel and Mushka both have talent while being a bit below the standard set by the top two. Careless Jewel is more of a danger because of her speed but the hard closing Mushka could easily hit the board with the right pace and trip.

I've decided to add Life is Sweet to the list at #5 as a replacement for the ailing Icon Project. Really only Cocoa Beach and Lethal Heat got my attention as alternatives for the final spot. Both of them defeated Life is Sweet last time but I think Life Is Sweet is truly a better horse than either of them. She ought to put up a better performance second time off the layoff and realistically the extra sixteenth of a mile will help her. She needs all the ground she can get to run down those leaders.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Midday (2)
2. Forever Together (3)
3. Pure Clan (4)
4. Rutherienne (new)
5. Dynaforce (new)

Dropped: Dar Re Mi (1), Gozzip Girl (5)

I'm taking a risk and dropping Dar Re Mi because at this stage I only like to list horses for one race and Dar Re Mi is among my top 5 horses for the BC Turf. I think she'll go after that spot instead of this one but she clearly could win this race.

Gozzip Girl has also been removed from consideration because she simply is no where near as good as I supposed she was.

I never thought I'd be going after a habitual loser like Rutherienne but with the defection of Dar Re Mi and the less than invincibility of Forever Together one begins to realize that it may not take that much to be a huge contender here. I really respect Clement as a conditioner and I'm not really fazed by her lack of experience at the distance. Intercontinental didn't look solid at the distance either. She's fresh and in good form. She'll handle the distance and she ought to run very well. The big question with her is can she get over her habit of losing? Her last race suggests that she can.

The lack of depth in this division is nearly enough to make me reconsider my stance on Magical Fantasy. Nearly. I was more drawn to the eastern pair of Dynaforce and Criticism. Criticism is a horse that fully requires added distance. I think she is even better at 11 and 12f than she is at 10f. Quicker horses seem to have more of an advantage even at 10f. Whereas Criticism wants to suck the life out of her rivals with a long and steady gallop. I think a sharp pace down the hill at Santa Anita won't exactly suit.

I settled Dynaforce for my last spot. She ran poorly in the Flower Bowl but she threw a shoe that day and the ground was an absolute bog. She is not the most consistent horse out there but on her best day she's a really good one. She was definitely a better horse last year but I think she could still have a good race in her. She crossed the line 8th in last years event but she didn't have a good trip. She actually got completely shut off in the stretch and had to steady. She still got a 98 Beyer for that. That's equal to Magical Fantasy's best work.

I obviously don't have much respect for the western Turf fillies because I like a European and four Easterners. I suppose time will tell if that bias is misdirected.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura (1)
2. Informed Decision (2)
3. Indian Blessing (3)
4. Sara Louise (4)
5. Carlsbad (5)

Not much to add about this division. I think these are the right horses to consider and I don't see much hope for any others. Perhaps a European like Sweet Hearth is a much better horse than I think but I'm not counting on it. She would have to move up quite a bit on form to win this race.

Sometimes a surface does move a horse forward but there is nothing to indicate that Sweet Hearth or the other European Only Green are good candidates for that wager.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Always a Princess (1)
2. She Be Wild (2)
3. Blind Luck (3)
4. Beautician (5)
5. Negligee (new)

Dropped: Awesome Maria (4)

It's too bad Awesome Maria is not coming. I like her as a horse and as a candidate for this race but she won't win a race she's not entered in so we move on.

It came down to Negligee or Devil May Care for the last spot. I went for Negligee for a few reasons. First, she has run around two turns while Devil May Care has only gone around one turn.

The second reason is that she managed to beat She Be Wild whom I rate very highly. Devil May Care beat Awesome Maria whom I like but I think She Be Wild is a better horse right now. That's why I have her at #2 while Maria was #4.

The third reason is the pace. I think the pace might be hot in the Juvenile Fillies and I prefer a horse that can close as opposed to a pace presser.

Recent maiden winner Connie and Micheal is creating a stir because of her 95 Beyer Speed Figure earned at Keeneland but I still think that McPeek's best chance lies with Beautician. It's very hard for big figure maiden winners to step forward after a major performance in their career debut. I think class counts for something and Beautician has class. Ken McPeek said it best himself. Beautician already showed that she's good enough with her performances at Saratoga. The race at Keeneland was to see if she'd stay and if she'd handle the track. I think the answer to both is yes. Her finishing position does not indicate a lack of ability it was really just a result of a poor trip.

Gauging Europeans

2009-10-22T08:24:00.004-06:00

Two days ago Nick Luck looked to answer the question of which Europeans might be vulnerable at the Breeders' Cup. It's a good question and I thought he wrote out his analysis well. But there is another side to the coin that was not discussed and that is the statistical record of Europeans that fit specific profiles.

Europeans that are favored in Breeders' Cup races don't seem to have any more systematic vulnerability than any other favorites. Favorites have won 67 of the 194 Breeders' Cup races. That's a 34.54% clip. In races where Europeans have been favored the public choice has gone 14 for 45 or 31.11%. The difference is somewhere between negligible and non-existent. European favorites seem to be just as solid but no more solid than hometown favorites.

There is a bit of disparity if you isolate just the favorites that were odds on. North American odds on choices won at a 45.7% rate while European odds on choices managed only 33.3%. You have to take that with a grain of salt though because there have only been 6 European odds on favorites in the history of the Breeders' Cup. If Goldikova happens to be odds on this year and wins the winning percentage would jump to 42% which is right in line. The failed European odds on favorites were often pretty memorable though. Dancing Brave, Zilzal and Dylan Thomas all failed pretty badly.

Another relatively easy way to categorize Europeans is to judge the fresh against the not so fresh. It may be an overly simplistic measurement but look at every European that came to the Breeders' Cup since 1996 that has had more than 3 races since their last layoff. Their overall record is 2 for 48. A caveat to this statistic is the fact that from 1996 to 2007 they were 0 for 36 but last year Raven's Pass and Muhannak both defied the stat. It makes logical sense that a long season without breaks followed by a trip across the ocean may not be the best formula for success.

A third subset of Europeans that we'll examine statistically are those that have come to North America for their final prep before wheeling back in the Breeders' Cup. 34 horses have tried it from 1996 to 2008 and among those 34 a full 10 of them won their preps and 27 of the 34 hit the board. That's nearly an 80% in the money percentage. But when those same horses came back in the Breeders' Cup they have recorded a shocking 34-0-4-3 record. That's no wins and only 20% in the money.

These horses usually attract a fair bit of public support because they've already proven that they can handle American conditions and often they're impressive in the preps. But of the 34 entrants only Docksider, Ace and Banks Hill actually ran better races (ie... achieved an improved finishing position) in the Breeders' Cup than they did in their final preps. None of those three horses won their preps either, nor did they win Breeders' Cup races.

This stat does not include horses like Red Rocks or Winchester last year. Both of those horses did have European careers followed by a single North American race prior to the Breeders' Cup but both of them also had several month layoffs. The theory behind this "Euro bounce" is that a horse does not immediately feel the effects of a intercontinental journey. The adrenaline is still pumping and the jet lag has not set in at the time of their first start. However the arduous activity of a race seems to heighten the post race fatigue and they just can't replicate their form within the next few weeks. Obviously a lengthy spell on the sidelines mitigates this effect.

We've already seen Barry Irwin pull out Gitano Hernando from Classic consideration because of this type of thing. The official story is that he is too tired from his hard race in the Goodwood to wheel back in the Classic. Maybe he knows about the "Euro bounce".

Track This

2009-10-21T13:35:00.004-06:00

Not sold on the usefulness of individual timing or ground loss data? How about this use for Trakus.

From the DRF
"In a lengthy explanation to the Keeneland publicity staff, Michael Ciacciarelli, chief executive officer for Trakus, said Mushka was traveling about 2.2 feet per second faster than Proviso at the time of the foul. Had there been no foul and if the two horses had kept a constant speed for the remaining 380 feet of the race, Mushka would have won by about 1 1/2 lengths, Ciacciarelli said."

Now tell me why this would not be a good thing at every racetrack? I'm not sure if the stewards had this data available to them at the time that made their decision but they could have and in the future I think they should have.

Trakus is an excellent tool that can be used in so many ways. Helping the stewards make decisions about disqualifications is just one of them but that in itself would be enough.

Win And You're No More Likely To Be In

2009-10-21T07:58:00.005-06:00

Although Lahaleeb earned a guaranteed spot in the Filly and Mare Turf through her E.P. Taylor victory, Channon expressed skepticism about the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, noting the prohibitive fees for horses not nominated to the Cup.

"In that sense," he said, "Win and You're In is a bit misleading."

The excerpt above was taken from the Daily Racing Form and I think Mick Channon has just voiced the sentiment of many people in racing.

Right from the very beginning people questioned the purpose and effectiveness of the "Win and You're In" program. It just didn't make sense. Then there was the issue they had with snubbing the major NYRA races. We were told to give it some time and let it play out but let's look at how it's playing out so far this year.

There were 60 "Win and You're In" qualifying races this year that were won by 58 different horses. Swift Temper and Magical Fantasy were the only horses to win two qualifying races. Here is a list of all the Win And You're In race winners and their likely involvement on Breeders' Cup Day.

So from 58 horses we have just 26 that are likely to run in the race they qualified for.

Tell me, from a marketing perspective, how does Win And You're In really help the Breeders' Cup increase exposure or how does it help fans follow the major contenders for each race?

The Classic division is likely the worst of all. Rip Van Winkle, Gio Ponti, Mastercraftsman and Zenyatta if she comes will have all opted out of the other races they qualified for in order to contest the Classic while only two "WAYI" qualifiers for the Classic will be there.

Win And You're In does not make it easier for fans to follow the buildup to the big day. Nor does it really grant guaranteed entry because supplemental fees have to be paid for some entrants. The races they've chosen are also pretty illogical.

I can certainly think of many more arguments in favor of scrapping the program than I can for keeping it.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-10-20T07:10:00.002-06:00

All of the major preparation races are over so this week's top 5 rankings will be the last for this years Breeders' Cup. It's kind of useless to be putting out top 5 lists when you could be pouring over the entries making actual selections. Pre-Entries will be drawn sometime next week and from here on in it will be all about workouts, post positions and proposed tactics.

October 20th

Classic
1. Rail Trip (1)
2. Rip Van Winkle (2)
3. Mastercraftsman (3)
4. Richard's Kid (new)
5. Einstein (4)

Dropped: Summer Bird (5)

The Classic should be just that this year, although Rachel isn't coming, Sea the Stars is not coming and I think Zenyatta will skip in favor of the Ladies version. The Classic will be deep enough to absorb those losses and still look like a fantastic race. A list of 5 horses isn't long enough to mention all the really great talents that will be on display.

One thing that has really stuck out to me is the record of the sophomores in prep races. Not just for the Classic division but seemingly everyone. Three year olds are doing extremely well against older horses and as time marches on I think that spells bad news for the older crew. Many three year olds are maturing into the horse they're going to be while many older horses like Macho Again or Einstein are simply trying to still be the horses they were.

I know I have an older horse atop my rankings but I think that if Rail Trip can't handle the youngsters no one will. Rail Trip is a horse I have enjoyed following for all his career. I posted about him last December and mentioned that he was a horse worth watching but I never could have imagined that he'd end up being this good. I see him as the horse to beat in the toughest race of the year. We know he loves the track and we know he is capable of sheer brilliance like he showed in the Hollywood Gold Cup. I love the fact that he'll be more fresh than most of his competition as well.

The recent performance by Gitano Hernando makes me even more scared of the Ballydoyle duo of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. Gitano may have been an experienced Polytrack horse but his level of talent is no where near what O'Brien's pair are capable of. I hate playing Europeans second time off the plane so Gitano is an out and out toss but it has to make you think that the established class in California will be up against it. So why do I have Richard's Kid on the list? Because I'm naturally contrary to the flow of public sentiment. Everyone will be looking for a European grass horse while I'll still be keeping my eye on a very solid horse who obviously loves synthetic tracks and probably needs 10f to show his best form. I was worried that his Pacific Classic was a fluke but it certainly wasn't. He would have the Goodwood too if it had been 10f. He's a serious horse and Baffert is as good as anyone at preparing horses for big events.

Summer Bird is a major danger. He is one of those improving three year olds but he's an unknown on the surface. I preferred Einstein because he of the surface issue and because Einstein is quietly in very fine form. I know it's bucking the trend to go with three older horses when we can clearly see that the sophomores are gaining tons of ground but I really think that Rail Trip, Einstein and Richard's Kid can give good accounts of themselves.

It may seem like rather weak reasoning but three weeks away from a race much of this type of ranking comes down to a gut feeling. My gut says that that Rail Trip is the horse to beat despite the strong evidence that three year olds and Turf horses are the ones to fear. It's hard to justify a lack of faith in Summer Bird, who looks like a powerhouse. Or Gio Ponti who is my favorite horse in training or even horses like Twice Over or Quality Road but I've decided to stick with these five who I've been pretty high on for months with the exception of Richard's Kid.

Turf
1. Spanish Moon (2)
2. Conduit (3)
3. Dar Re Mi (new)
4. Presious Passion (5)
5. Mastery (new)

Dropped: Fame And Glory (1), Kite Wood (4)

Are there really five horses even coming to this race? I'm looking over a list of contenders and most of the horses that people are listing are likely not to come. Grand Couturier endured a nightmare at Santa Anita last year. Why would he come against this year when he is far worse form? Telling is on many people's lists but he's not good enough to be a real factor. It looks as though no horse from the Canadian International will be headed to the Turf. That means that as of now it looks like the Arlington Million, Joe Hirsch, Clement Hirsch and Canadian International will have only produced one or two starters combined: Presious Passion and Telling. That is shocking and unbelievable.

Because of the dearth of quality I expect that Dar Re Mi will in fact target this race instead of the Filly and mare version. Fame And Glory has now surely dropped out of the running while Godolphin have not said a single thing about Kite Wood since the St Leger. With both of those horses being likely non runners it leaves the race wide open to a filly like Dar Re Mi. She already took on the boys in the Arc and was far from disgraced. I think she'll still have a very tough time with Spanish Moon and Conduit but she's a legitimate threat.

Presious Passion is also a horse with a winning chance and the shorter the field the better he'll do. His opponents will be seriously looking at options for pacemakers because aside from Spanish Moon none of the other names floating around have any semblance of speed.

Although he hasn't been mentioned I think Take The Points will show up. Connections should see this as an easy spot to grab some notoriety. Pletcher always likes to have runners on big race days and although Take The Points doesn't really fit in the Turf. He fits here more than anywhere else and this race looks much easier than the Mile.

I decided to go with Mastery for the last spot on the list. I know Godolphin has been talking about the Marathon with this horse but when they get a glimpse of the competition how could choose a $500k ungraded event instead of the Turf? Mastery is a G-1 winner on fast ground and the St. Leger was a successful stepping stone for both Conduit and Red Rocks. The temptation to chase the big prize will probably draw them here and Mastery has a realistic chance because the field lacks depth at the moment.

Mile
1. Goldikova (1)
2. Delegator (2)
3. Ferneley (3)
4. Zacinto (4)
5. Court Vision (new)

Dropped: Whatsthescript (5)

Last week when I compiled this list I said that the 5th spot was being reserved for the most impressive horse to emerge from the Shadwell Mile and Oak Tree Mile. I have to admit that now having seen those races I believe that none of those horses are likely to win the Mile. The bar set by horses like Goldikova and Delegator is much too high.

There is plenty to like about Court Vision, Cowboy Cal and Karelian even if you think as I do, that Goldikova will be nearly untouchable. Court Vision seems to be responding very well to his new barn and since his surgery. I expect an improved effort from him on firm ground. I think it's significant that IEAH is holding out Diamondrella from this race because of what they see in Court Vision. If Diamondrella was running in this race she would be near the top of my list. I really wanted to see him run a lifetime best effort in this race to show that a Mile suits him perfectly but I was left with the impression that 9f is still likely his best distance. I went with him because of the intangible feeling that this horse has been sitting on some world class talent since the beginning but that Mott struggled to get it out of him. Dutrow has a way of figuring out horses like that and he may even take a big enough step forward to pull off the upset. Maybe Goldikova won't be untouchable.

Karelian is a very admirable horse who is unquestionably a mile specialist but I think the circumstances are just against him. He is a 7 year old who has been notoriously unfit since the fall of 07'. The Shadwell was an unbelievable performance considering that it was his first of the season and that he is not naturally a speed horse. But my worry is that this old gelding won't be able to gear up again in a month. Performances like that often lead to regression in older horses unless they get a bit more time on the bench. If he had got another start in this year I'd be preferring Karelian to Court Vision.

Cowboy Cal is a classic example of a horse that is good at everything but not great at anything. He wins the races he ought to win because he is tough and classy but when special horses show up against him he always takes a back seat. Cowboy Cal has an excellent chance to hit the board in the BC Mile. He is undefeated at the distance and you could see how stubborn he gets. In races 8f-9f Cowboy Cal is 12-7-4-1. He has only missed the exacta once. The reason I haven't put him on my list is that I'm not trying to pick the horse that will be second or third. I'm looking for horses with the best winning chance. Cowboy Cal is a far steadier prospect than Court Vision but Court Vision has that upside potential that Pletcher's horse just doesn't have. what you see is what you get with Cowboy Cal and it's only going to be good enough for second place at best. At least with Court Vision there is that slim chance that the firm turf could really bring him to life and he'd fulfill that potential connections always saw in him.

Sprint
1. Fatal Bullet (1)
2. Zensational (2)
3. Gayego (5)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (new)
5. Delta Storm (new)

Dropped: Kodiak Kowboy (3), Hollywood Hit (4)

Like the Turf this race is struggling to find runners but unlike the Turf there is still going to be quite a bit of quality. The loss of Fabulous Strike and Kodiak Kowboy is significant but Zensational, Fatal Bullet and Gayego are all good enough to make this a legitimate championship event.

I have been a strong supporter of Fatal Bullet all year long. I know the hype is with Zensational and that Fatal Bullet has not had a championship caliber campaign. But in a one race situation I still think he is the best synthetic sprinter in the world. He has lost just on synthetic sprint at 6.5f or less and it took the fabulous Midnight Lute to beat him. All of his last 7 races on synthetics have seen him earn triple digit Beyers. Now this doesn't really set him apart from Zensational who is undefeated in synthetic sprints and has also earned triple digit Beyers in every synthetic sprint race he has run. My case for Fatal Bullet is based more on visual impression, the strength of his competition and the fact that he has shown the ability to rate a bit. Zensational is a bit less reserved and he has never faced any horses like the ones he'll be facing in the Sprint.

Gayego has inherited the spot of closer most likely to swoop past the dueling pair of Fatal Bullet and Zensational. The threat of an all out speed duel with those two is very real and with Kodiak Kowboy pulling out of the Sprint it's left to Gayego to run them down. Gayego has exuded class all his life and he is quite effective going longer as well. What I like about him is that he makes winning seem like no big deal. The Ancient Title was a good performance but it seemed like Gayego was only going at workout pace. It took very little for him to sweep to the lead.

Capt. Candyman Can is one of the most admirable horses in training. He has never earned massive figures for his work but he has been nothing but solid all of his life. He has run in 7 sprint races in his career and the only horses to have beaten him fairly are Quality Road and Fatal Bullet. I'm not sure that he can close as effectively at 6f as Gayego can but he'll be another closer looking dangerous in the final furlong.

I was deeply saddened to hear that Hollywood Hit has been suspended for 90 days because he was found to have a tranquilizer in his system during his last race. I must say that I find it odd that the horse himself is barred from running instead of a sanction being brought on the trainer. Either way the BC Sprint has lost a legitimate threat.

Who else is coming to this race? I have no idea to be honest. I'm interested in Crown of Thorns but he's on the fence for this race and even for the Breeders' Cup at all. My feeling is that he is more likely for the Dirt Mile.

I have tossed Delta Storm on the list because he has a decent and consistent record on synthetics. I don't he has a realistic chance of winning and he should be 40/1 but he usually runs his race and the evidence suggests that he's as good as he's ever been. That's probably not good enough but stranger things have happened in racing. All we know is that 6f on a synthetic track fits him well and he's capable of running a good race.

Juvenile
1. Lookin At Lucky (1)
2. Pulsion (2)
3. Aikenite (new)
4. Aspire (5)
5. Noble's Promise (new)

Dropped: Dave in Dixie (3), Dublin (4)

When the Juvenile is hosted in the West it is usually won by a western horse. I have two westerners atop my list although I think that the form is really very close between all these five horses.

Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise are both major synthetic prep winners that have good tactical speed and decent figures. They also both come from barns that are excellent with two year olds.

On my list they bookend a trio of classy closers who should all have a big say. Pace meltdowns in the Juvenile are hardly rare. With all those young horses keyed up by the crowds it doesn't take much to wind up with a speed duel. Pulsion has proven that he can close effectively on this track. He is not a stakes winner but he is one of the few non stakes winners that will enter the juvenile having won a two turn race. Biancone has a good one.

I think there is very little to separate Aikenite and Aspire. The reason I have Aikenite a bit higher is that he got the two turn synthetic prep while Aspire got a one turn dirt prep. It was still a route race for Aspire but it just gives me a bit less confidence in him. Aikenite had closed hard in both of his last two G-1 races but he definitely looked better on the Polytrack at Keeneland than he did on the main track at Saratoga.

Aspire might be a bit of a hidden gem because he never really got to run in the Champagne. I thought he was the horse to beat going into that race and coming out of it I think he is the horse with the brightest future. I don't know what synthetics do to his chances but I will definitely be rooting for Aspire in the juvenile.

Weekend Review

2009-10-19T11:43:00.002-06:00

Weekend Overview: Woodbine hosted the major action of the weekend and the races provided a good mixture between being formful and downright crazy. I was surprised to see Champs Elysees made the favorite in the Canadian International. I would have thought that Jukebox Jury with his flashy European form would command most of the attention but the public got it spot on. Lahaleed raised some eyebrows with her win in the E.P. Taylor off of very little back form. It's no surprise that she was 44/1 but evidently North America suits her very well because she never would have handled Rainbow View back home. I hope people have noticed that once again the three year olds did so well against their elders. Lahaleeb and Rainbow View completed the exacta in the E.P. Taylor with Eastern Aria running 4th and Jukebox Jury almost won the International for the sophomore class. On the heels of wins by Summer Bird and Gitano Hernando it appears that the older horses are weaker than usual. I was pretty surprised to see Gozzip Girl run as flatly as she did. I overestimated her quality by quite a bit. She's a good horse but pretty ordinary amongst her peers. She won't be a factor in the Breeders' Cup. Jackson Bend raised an eyebrow or two when he won the In Reality at Calder earning a 100 Beyer. He had a tough trip but he overcame the adversity and was very impressive. The steady little Canadian El Brujo won his second consecutive Graded Stakes race south of the border. He doesn't get big figures but he just keeps plodding along. His great form makes the suspension of Hollywood Hit look all the more unfortunate. Hollywood Hit was on a major hot streak, it's a shame to see him sidelined for 90 days because he had a tranquilizer in his system. I know there are differing viewpoints on that subject but I think it's unfair to suspend the horse specifically.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: The standings have finally been updated, I missed doing it last week because I was out of town but quite honestly things did not change as much as I thought they might. Zenyatta confirmed herself as the Older Female to beat. The Older Males lost yet another race to the three year olds in the Goodwood and Magical Fantasy continued to dominate the west coast turf. Forever Together is now forced into a position where she definitely has to win the BC Filly and Mare Turf if she wants to be champion again. Magical Fantasy has built up too much of a lead otherwise. Gayego burst onto the Male Sprinters scene and suddenly has a mathematical chance of reaching first place. The BC Sprint will be a major determining factor as it should be but sadly Fatal Bullet's meager campaign leaves him out of the running.

Power Rankings: Perhaps the tightest division right now is the Two Year Old Female division. There really isn't much to separate the best from the rest. There is a difference of just 3.42 from 1st to 5th. Nearctic winner Field Commission is sneaking up the sprinter standings. A good showing in the BC Turf Sprint may actually make him one of the year's top 5 sprinters. Girolamo is also among the upwardly mobile. He is now just 6th among active Three Year Old Males. It looks like there is more to come from this Godolphin colt as well.

Performance of the Week: There is no question that Jackson Bend was the most impressive performer of the week. If you have not seen the In Reality Stakes then go to Thoroughbred Times and check it out. This site, in case you weren't aware, has free links to stakes races both graded and ungraded. Jackson Bend was looking for a sweep of the Florida Stallion series but it looked unlikely after he went down to his nose soon after the break. Young horses rarely come back from that but he regained his rhythm pretty quickly and was in a good stalking position down the backside. Jeffrey Sanchez likely went for home a bit prematurely around the far turn and Jackson Bend again looked in real trouble as Thank U Phillipe came right up beside him near the 1/8th pole. But Jackson Bend fended off the challenge and went on to win by nearly 3 lengths! It was an unbelievable race, certainly the best route performance by any 2yo this year. The 100 Beyer figure confirms the class of the event. It's the highest number earned by a juvenile going two turns. Jackson Bend has now won 5 of 6 starts and is the only horse to have defeated D'Funnybone. Put him on your short list of horses to watch in the future.

Race of the Week: I thought the Nearctic Stakes was the most engaging of the weekend. Turf sprints tend to always be a little hectic and this one was no exception. Maybe I liked the race so much because of the good performances by Field Commission and Jungle Wave. I have a soft spot for these two Canadian based sprinters. Field Commission made an excellent move in the stretch to come between horses then flash by the dueling leaders. Maybe a few of these will turn up at Santa Anita in a few weeks. I don't think they'd be too over matched.

Flop of the Week: I think it likely has to be Gozzip Girl or Look Here. Gozzip Girl was facing a very ordinary cast of 3yo fillies and she had previously suggested that she was a great deal more than ordinary. That illusion is certainly dispelled. Look Here just never raised a hoof in the E.P Taylor. Here is a filly that won the Epsom Oaks, finish third against 3yo males in the St Leger and had been narrowly denied in a pair of tough graded stakes against older males. So what happens when she faces the softest field since her second career race? She runs next to last.

Tip O'the Cap: A horse I have been hard on for virtually all his career is Champs Elysees. He was bred to be a great one and I suppose it was the weight of expectation that resulted in the perception that he was an underachiever. But now with his career now ended I think he deserves a bit of a salute. The Canadian International was likely his greatest performance. He closed with a lot of determination to get Jukebox Jury. He may have only won six times but he struck three times at the G-1 level. All in all he was a solid performer. He was not in the same bracket as his illustrious siblings but 3 G-1 wins is a good haul for any horse. His racing career was not one that will attract breeders but the blood that flows through his veins could only be described as royal blue. I wish him the best of luck at stud.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-10-16T09:02:00.002-06:00

October 16th

Ladies Classic
1. Zenyatta (2)
2. Music Note (3)
3. Careless Jewel (4)
4. Mushka (new)
5. Icon Project (1)

Dropped: Acoma (5)

It has become rather popular to go against Zenyatta recently but in reality she deserves this #1 slot. Her Beyer was not that impressive in the Lady's Secret but she's never lost a race and she certainly did not look like losing last weekend. She made an earlier move and ended the race as a contest in the upper stretch. It's going to take a real runner to beat her and I don't think anyone can.

I did believe in Icon Project but her latest fitness issues put her firmly on the fence. She realistically may not even make the race.

Careless Jewel has the ideal running style for a possible upset of Zenyatta but then again we've never seen an upset so it's really hard to say what might get the Moss filly beaten. Careless Jewel is in fine form though and she will a major pace threat especially since it looks like pace will be scarce.

I added Mushka to the list not because I thought she ran a better race than Proviso but because I think she has a better chance of repeating that performance than Proviso. I'm not a fan of Europeans second time off the plane. Especially when they run big first time off the plane. Mushka is a horse I loved as a 2yo. I was all over her in the Demoiselle and she more than justified my confidence. That was a huge performance. Unfortunately she has rarely looked good since. She has won 4 of her last 13 races but has missed the board in 5 of them. Her last two races have been the turning of a page for her. She won the Glens Falls fair and square and now the Spinster on the DQ. Her two Polytrack races have yielded Beyers of 97 and 101. That puts her in the mix and her good current form only adds spice to her intrigue. Maybe Mushka will be the horse I hoped after all.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Dar Re Mi (1)
2. Midday (2)
3. Forever Together (3)
4. Pure Clan (4)
5. Gozzip Girl (5)

I moved Forever Together off her perch in this division a few weeks back and the decision to do so looks better and better. I'm not going to be hard on her for the loss in the First Lady. It was a soft course and a flat mile. Neither of those play to her preference but it seems clear that the Europeans are probably stronger. Forever Together is definitely the #1 North American Turf filly in my opinion but Dar Re Mi and Midday look pretty scary.

Dar Re Mi has been running at the highest levels all year long and it's not much of a stretch to say that she could be as impressive as Ouija Board. She is simply a really phenomenal horse. If she has held her form she's the one to beat.

Midday must be feared even if it's simply because of her stable. Juddmonte farms is flying at the moment, much like Godolphin. Even the terrible underachiever Visit nearly took a G-1 race. I know Midday comes from another barn but the Juddmonte crew often does very well in the fall. Midday could be a monster.

Pure Clan looks solid but ordinary while Gozzip Girl has it all to prove in the QE II this weekend. Really only Gozzip Girl and Miss World look capable of catching my eye in Keeneland's main feature. It would take something really special from one of the other fillies to see them included.

Woodbine's E.P. Taylor stakes looks like a doozy with several top notch Europeans coming. Rainbow View and Look Here would certainly be well backed in the Breeders' Cup but because they're getting a preliminary start in North America I'd toss them if they reappear. Europeans do very poorly second time off the plane. What I'd look for instead is any North American that can give these fillies a run for their money. Maybe someone like Treat Gently for Juddmonte and Bobby Frankel.

One filly I would not touch with a ten foot pole is Magical Fantasy. She has fraud written all over her. I expect her to be well and truly crushed in the Breeders' Cup.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura (1)
2. Informed Decision (2)
3. Indian Blessing (3)
4. Sara Louise (4)
5. Carlsbad (5)

There is little doubt in my mind that I have the right 5 horses in my top 5. What I struggle with is the precise order that they should be ranked. I decided to leave them be because on accomplishments I think this is an accurate ranking. But workouts, current fitness, pace and post position will decide the proper order for these fillies.

Informed Decision looked beaten at Keeneland in the TCA but she's just relentless on synthetic surfaces and she got to Carlsbad just like she got to Ventura earlier this spring. I'm not sure that even Ventura could handle her but I think freshness may be a factor.

Carlsbad ran her heart out and she nearly got it done. She should have lots of confidence going into the Breeders' Cup because she definitely proved that she can mix it with the best. Don't be surprised if she's very tough to catch going back home to Santa Anita.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Always a Princess (new)
2. She Be Wild (2)
3. Blind Luck (3)
4. Awesome Maria (4)
5. Beautician (1)

Dropped: Midst (5)

It took a while for this division to really take shape, it usually does but this year it seemed to take an especially long time. The Oak Leaf, Alcibiades and Frizette should be the key determining races. I think the quality we saw in those events ensures that the winner won't likely be coming from some maiden or allowance.

I was completely impressed with Always a Princess in the Oak Leaf. She was taken out of her game when given the inside post and she responded well to the adversity. I know she eventually succumbed to Blind Luck but I think she'll definitely be the better horse when it counts. With more experience and a better pace setup the Baffert filly looks like one of the best picks of the entire Breeders' Cup.

She Be Wild looked a shade unlucky in the Alcibiades. I thought the quality of the race was good and the winner, Negligee, looks like a decent sort. But I still think Catalano's filly is the better of the two. She moved a little sooner and that maybe told on her late. One thing I always shy away from is big upset winners in their very next start. Few of them are able to turn the trick twice in a row. It's better to stick with the established quality and She Be Wild is definitely the established quality.

Blind Luck will likely be the favorite for the Juvenile Fillies and she deserves it. She's the best closer in the race and everyone else will be praying that the pace is not too quick up front because if it is she'll roll on by this field. I worry that she might not be versatile enough to catch a good stalker though and that's why I have her placed in third. Both Always a Princess and She Be Wild have better tactical speed and very similar talent.

Awesome Maria didn't win the Frizette but I think she is the highest quality horse to come out of it. Pletcher's Devil May Care is undefeated but I thought Awesome Maria had the tougher trip and was unlucky to miss out. I know this means that I've got the three second place finishers from the major preps in my top 5 while only one of the winners made it but I really think that Always a Princess, She Be Wild and Awesome Maria are a much better group than Blind Luck, Negligee and Devil May Care. Awesome Maria is no sure thing to actually contest the Breeders' Cup but I'm hoping that connections send her. She deserves it in my opinion.

Beautician fell from my number 1 spot all the way to 5th. She's lucky that she stayed on the list at all. I'm willing to give her another shot because she really did have all kinds of trouble. She seemed to get over the track okay it was just the traffic she encountered that disadvantaged her. I still prefer her chances over the rest of this crop that has gone unmentioned.

Time To Give Thanks

2009-10-07T12:55:00.003-06:00

For anyone wondering why this space is not featuring anything new for the next week. I am headed out of town for yet another vacation. This is my third vacation of the year and when Christmas rolls around I'll enjoy number four. I should probably do some work one of these days!

I'm disappointed to miss many of the nice races that are going to be happening over the next week but the wonderful thing about the internet is that I can simply watch them all when I get back.

Happy Thanksgiving to all on my side of the border. To those who don't celebrate this holiday in October you can be thankful anyway for all the great races and exciting match-ups you'll see.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-10-07T11:04:00.000-06:00

October 7th

Classic
1. Rail Trip (1)
2. Rip Van Winkle (2)
3. Mastercraftsman (3)
4. Einstein (4)
5. Summer Bird (new)

Dropped: Parading (5)

Summer Bird struck a blow for the east coast horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but my bias is still with Europe and the west. A good performance by any number of horses in the Goodwood will see them usurp the son of Birdstone and oust him from my list once again.

Parading is chief among those I'm eager to see in action in the Goodwood but of course Richard's Kid, Tiago, Colonel John and Mine That Bird could all end up being major players. I don't have a fully formed opinion about the relative merits of all those horses yet. The Goodwood should iron them out.

The Ballydoyle pair of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman still look very tough. Mastercraftsman had a prep over the synthetic track at Dundalk and he looked pretty impressive. I still think Rip Van Winkle is the stronger of the two though. Rail Trip is the only American that I can see giving those two a real run for their money. Rail Trip has that something extra special and if he ever runs again like he did in the Hollywood Gold Cup the rest will be in big trouble. Obviously since I have him ranked first I am expecting a repeat of that performance. I think he'll be nice and fresh and ready to roll.

For those wondering I am still operating under the assumption that Sea The Stars is not coming. It's a great shame but I just don't think his trainer will want to and his owner has said that it is 100% the trainers choice.

Gio Ponti is an interesting case for the Classic but I'm not going to be taking that bait. I still honestly believe that this horse is a world class miler but he's only the best of the rest at distances beyond. It's unfortunate that there isn't enough prestige at a mile in North America. To be champion turf horse you have to win the longer races. Gio Ponti is a stakes winner on Santa Anita's main track but that was in the one mile Sir Beaufort. He could only manage 5th in the 9f Strub. He was facing pretty ordinary horses that day. The winner of the Strub, Cowboy Cal, has already been pointed elsewhere after it was clear that he wasn't Classic material. I don't think this is the best race for Gio Ponti. He could beat Goldikova in the Mile but instead he'll finish mid-pack in the Classic.

Turf
1. Fame And Glory (1)
2. Spanish Moon (3)
3. Conduit (2)
4. Kite Wood (5)
5. Presious Passion (new)

Dropped: Gio Ponti (4)

This race is in real danger of falling apart. Some British bookmakers removed Fame and Glory from the betting for the BC Turf which is a good indication that he's not coming, but who is? Gio Ponti is now headed to the Classic and America hardly has any horses that could be viewed as realistic contenders. I've left Fame and Glory at the head of my list because I want to hear the final word from his connections.

Spanish Moon has been moved ahead of the defending champion because I was less than impressed with Conduit in the Arc. I know the Arc is a very tough race and finishing 4th is a good result but he is so reliant on the pace it makes him tough to back. Last year the field fell into his lap. This year the pace might be different and Spanish Moon is better equipped to handle a variety of pace scenario's. Spanish Moon has the tactical speed to sit anywhere including in front of the whole field. He is on a good run of form and he could be the fresher of the Stoute pair. Realistically I have struggled to support Conduit wholeheartedly all year long. Maybe I'm unduly biased against him and this is just the latest alternative I've found. For some reason I can't fully describe I just don't trust Conduit and see him as a horse that will hit the board but not win.

Godolphin have been silent on Kite Wood but that partially because no one has asked. I think he's got a good chance if he comes. The one worry with him might be the ground. They have hesitated to put him on real jarring ground

I've thrown Presious Passion back on the list because he offers something that others don't. His style is something the Europeans won't have dealt with. Generally when a horse distances themselves from the field they come crashing back to earth but this horse doesn't. He makes you come and get him and because of the size of the margin he opens up he makes a lot of riders jump the gun. I truly don't believe that any American I've seen thus far can win this race but now that the European challenge is falling apart a bit I simply have to give Presious Passion a look. I expect him to win the Clement Hirsch because the rest of the distance horses in California are terrible.

I don't expect anyone coming out of the horrendous Joe Hirsch Turf Classic to even compete let alone impact the BC Turf.

Mile
1. Goldikova (1)
2. Delegator (2)
3. Ferneley (5)
4. Zacinto (new)
5. Whatsthescript (new)

Dropped: Ghanaati (3), Aqlaam (4)

The loss by Goldikova hardly put me off at all. I actually like to see a bit of a reverse like that. She had to deal with adverse conditions and it probably means that her connections will be extra careful with their prep work now. Some times when a horse is on a real roll connections don't want to change anything but a loss can bring new focus.

Goldikova was rushed up to contest a fast pace in a 7f race. She ended up third by 3/4 of a length but it was the pace that did her in. It actually looked like an excellent blowout. She is a stronger candidate to win the Mile now than she was.

Delegator looks to be backing into this race a bit. I have him above Zacinto because he is a more accomplished horse overall but Zacinto looks like he's heating up towards the end of his campaign while Delegator is just trying to maintain form. This order could easily switch up as we hear more rumblings from the two camps. Another reason I have Godolphin's Delegator above is that Zacinto has not been officially confirmed for this race.

Ferneley looks like the best of an ordinary lot of Americans but I'm really banking on a "stranger" or new shooter to come to the fore in the Oak Tree Mile or Shadwell Mile this weekend. Horses like Justenuffhumor, Court Vision, Mr. Sidney and Battle of Hastings will compete at Keeneland and hopefully one of them marks themselves as a real miler. Cowboy Cal has chosen to go out west which I actually prefer because it gives him a run over the course. He is undefeated at the distance and definitely has a big chance to make the ranking. I chose Whatsthescript because he is, as of now, the most proven miler of the group. He ran third in the BC Mile race last year and although he's had a rough campaign of under performance he could get right back in the thick of things with a win at Oak Tree. I think he was likely not fully cranked for his seasonal debut then his next two races came at 9f so I'll excuse him for not excelling in those events.

One of the most important things I look for in a miler is that they're better at a mile on turf than they are at all other distances or conditions. If a horse has been really great at other things it makes him a less than likely miler but some of the really good ones, like War Chant, prove that they can be even better at a mile. That's what I'm hoping to see from someone in one of the two big mile preps.

Mr. Sidney is the one exception from the group above because he has already shown that he's a real miler. My problem with him is that he has never appeared to be brilliant. I wonder if he has only been beating poor horses in slow times.

Realistically I could have put any one of the main contenders for the Oak Tree Mile or Shadwell Mile in the last spot.

Sprint
1. Fatal Bullet (1)
2. Zensational (2)
3. Kodiak Kowboy (new)
4. Hollywood Hit (new)
5. Gayego (new)

Dropped: Munnings (3), Ready's Echo (4), Noble Court (5)

I made some pretty big changes to my sprint ranking. I still have Fatal Bullet on top but his status as my #1 Sprint choice is contingent upon a good race in Keeneland's Phoenix Stakes. We'll find out on Friday if he still has the flash and dash. I expect that he does.

Munnings, Ready's Echo and Noble Court are all likely going to be non-runners in this race so I had to fix my sights elsewhere.

Fatal Bullet and Zensational have one thing in common. They're really fast early on and if you add the blazing new shooter Hollywood Hit to the mix as well as the normal chaff the BC Sprint may set up for a closer. The best closer I see out there is Kodiak Kowboy. I think Asmussen really gets the best out of this horse and in the Vosburgh he showed that he could come and get a world class sprinter at 6f. That had always been my main concern with him. He looked more like a 7f horse than a 6f one. But any horse that can gun down Fabulous Strike at 6f on the dirt has my respect.

Hollywood Hit is a horse that probably very few people have heard of. He's the newest sprint sensation to come out of Canada. He's not actually Canadian at all, he's an Oklahoma bred that started his career on the minor circuit's in the south. In his first 6 career races he went 6-2-2-0, he won an allowance earning a 100 Beyer and he also ran second to Kensei at Oaklawn. But everything changed for the better when he came to Woodbine. He has run three straight blistering races in a row earning figures of 108, 104 and 96. In his last effort, the King Corrie Stakes, he set fractions of :21.81 and :43.68 en route to a 5 1/2 length win in 1:07.38. He goes to the front and keeps getting stronger. He is still a 3yo that has not tried graded stakes company but he is undefeated on synthetics and the only horse to beat him since he broke his maiden is Kensei. Two races back he destroyed El Brujo who then came back to win the KY Cup Sprint. Although he hasn't run in any big races yet his form and the figures both suggest that this speedball is a major player. His record looks very similar to Fatal Bullet's last year. Mark down the name and keep your eye out. Only Zensational and Fatal Bullet have earned higher synthetic sprinting figures this year.

Gayego never struck me as a 6f purist kind of horse but he is actually 3 for 3 at the distance and I have always thought that he's better on synthetics than he is on the dirt. He is running in the Ancient Title this weekend and since the field is weak he'll likely win or be very close. I like that he can come from off the pace and even that he is good going longer. Some of the best sprinters are those than can handle 6f but they're also proficient at longer distances.

Juvenile
1. Lookin At Lucky (1)
2. Pulsion (4)
3. Dave in Dixie (5)
4. Dublin (2)
5. Aspire (3)

No changes to the juvenile rankings in terms of the horses included but the order did get shuffled around a bit. Lookin At Lucky is the #1 horse in this division and he could easily be one of the shortest prices on the day. None of the Californian's seem to be able to handle him and every horse that is coming in from out of town will have questions hanging over them regarding the surface. Baffert looks set to have a very strong Breeders' Cup.

I got on board with Pulsion after his massive maiden victory. He looked immense when stretching out, then he confirmed that form with a slightly troubled second place finish behind Lookin At Lucky in the Norfolk. Pulsion did not have the cleanest of trips in the Norfolk but he looked good when he got a clear run. He was giving away a good amount of experience to the Baffert horse and maybe he comes on a bit from this effort. He would seem like the most likely horse to run down Lookin At Lucky if indeed that is possible.

Dave in Dixie was even more inexperienced than Pulsion. All he had under his belt going into the Norfolk was one start in a sprint maiden. He ran like he didn't know that other horses could be that good. His maiden win was so easy but the horses in the Norfolk didn't really come back to him. He closed well to finish 6th, just two noses out of third. But the experience he gained is worth a ton. Dave in Dixie ought to be a very nice horse and we should see more from him in the Juvenile.

I'm not as thrilled about the chances of east coast horses. I think the Californians will set the standard in the Juvenile but I don't want to completely ignore the good horses in the east. Dublin and Aspire both look like good ones. I'm not trilled about neither of them showing up in the Breeders' Futurity. I don't think a synthetic prep is necessary for the horses benefit but for those of us making predictions it's a whole lot easier to get behind a horse once you have a bit of an indication of how they'll like the track. Aspire is a hard closing horse who should love synthetics. He's got a big chance. Dublin already has the big reputation and he'll have his hands full at Belmont but any Lukas horse that comes through his early program to win a G-1 at this stage has to be respected. Lukas may be hard on his juveniles but at least you know the good ones are for real.

Most likely after the dust settles this week I'll be giving preference to the good horses that are coming from the Breeders' Futurity rather than the Champagne but no horse in the Breeders' Futurity looks particularly impressive at this time. Perhaps Aikenite, Backtalk or Hockley will fit the mold but it's just as likely that an unknown will win this race, or make the most favorable impression. For now we wait.

Grading The Graded Stakes

2009-10-06T09:55:00.002-06:00

It was a major weekend of prep racing but were all preps created equal? We all know the answer to that question. Some races look good on paper before hand but turn out to be slow, some races are turned upside down by the result and some races look like they were already a mini version of the Breeders' Cup. Here is my take on the races we saw this weekend and the impact they might have. The grades and description of the grades are listed below.

A (More than one major BC contender was in action)
Oak Leaf - The California juvenile preps are usually where the eventual BC winners are found when the BC itself is also in California. Always a Princess and Blind Luck look especially good but you also just have to respect any horse that comes out of this race.
Norfolk - It's more than likely that the Juvenile winner was in this race. Lookin At Lucky will be hard to deny but even Pulsion, Gallant Gent and Dave in Dixie look like the next best things. Not much strength in the east at present.
Morvich - If a North American is going to win the Turf Sprint then they're likely coming out of this race. California Flag, Get Funky and Bruce's Dream all ran excellent races and don't forget that Desert Code exited a dull performance in this race last year to score on BC day.

B (Either several BC contenders or just one single major contender)
Jockey Club Gold Cup - Summer Bird, Quality Road and Macho Again may all end up in Breeders' Cup races but given the competition they'll be facing I would not be shocked if the Classic winner was not in this race.
Beldame - Music Note is a serious racehorse, she did not beat much but she did it well and should have a major impact on the Ladies Classic.
Vosburgh - For a race with so much talent this is a pretty cruel ranking but Fabulous Strike is ducking out and Munnings probably will too. That leaves Kodiak Kowboy, he's the logical horse to run down Fatal Bullet and Zensational but can anyone run down those two?

C (Just one BC contender)
Flower Bowl - Pure Clan has a moderate shot at hitting the frame in the FM Turf, everyone else is not good enough.
Cotillion - Careless Jewel is a good horse but the Ladies Classic is ultra tough. She is not a major contender in my mind she's just one of the crowd that needs to be respected.

D (May produce a few longshot hopefuls)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - It's a harsh assessment for Gio Ponti but he's going to the Classic where he will not have a great chance. The rest of this field was junk and should not show up in California.
Indiana Derby - Misremembered looks like a decent sort, maybe for the Dirt Mile
Ohio Derby - Gone Astray put in his second big race performance in a row but will his connections send him?
Hawthorne Gold Cup - Awesome Gem is a lovable old guy but he's not a major threat to win a championship caliber race.

F (Will have no impact whatsoever on a Breeders' Cup race)
Kelso - Three horse field that was taken off the Turf. Not much to add here.
Durham Cup - Woodbine's main track stakes races rarely produce BC contenders. This one is no different.
Cliff Hanger - Someone might actually be tempted to try the Mile coming out of this race but it probably be a mistake.

Weekend Review

2009-10-06T07:36:00.002-06:00

Overview: Other than the massive upset by Interpatation over Gio Ponti the week was pretty formful. Interpatation was the only G-1 winner that went off at odds of more than 5/1 and the favorite managed to at least hit the board in every race except the Flower Bowl where Dynaforce struggled to live up to expectations. Even the four G-2 events were all won by the favorite or second choice. So the good horses starting showing their true colors and it's a good thing because the Breeders' Cup record of horses that have had a poor final prep is pretty weak. I do not often mention overseas racing on this blog despite being quite a fan of it. In the early days I actually followed European racing more than American but for the blog I decided to keep my focus stateside. However I simply cannot let the season of Sea the Stars go unmentioned. Sometime after he is retired I plan on thoroughly reviewing his career and comparing it against those of Ribot, Sea Bird, Brigadier Gerard and others to see just how good he was. For now I'll simply say that I am extremely impressed with this colt. His acceleration in the Arc was unbelievable. People speculated that he didn't have that kind of acceleration but as it turns out it seems like he simply never had the occasion to use it. Sea the Stars is a horse for the ages. If you're interested there is an excellent tribute video you can catch on Youtube. There were too many other key races to mention them all by name but Music Note, Summer Bird and Lookin At Lucky were probably the most impressive winners. Gone Astray showed very good acceleration to win his second straight minor state Derby. He may use those wins as back door access to the Classic. Out of stakes company there was a very good debut performance from a Pletcher horse named Connemara. He completely blew the break in a Turfway maiden but he rallied strongly around the whole field on the far turn and kept rolling in the lane to win by 5. This half brother to Lion Heart and French Satin could be a very serious horse.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Mathematically Gio Ponti still had a major chance to catch Rachel Alexandra if he had been able to sweep his final few races. Now that he tasted defeat in the Joe Hirsch that window is all but closed. A win in the Classic would still do it but the Classic is a race he is far less likely to win. The Female Turf division is in a delicate limbo right now. Five horses are within 40 points of each other at the top but with Forever Together and Magical Fantasy still to run in G-1's before the Breeders' Cup the championship may just come down to the two of them. Kodiak Kowboy has put himself squarely back into the mix for the Sprint title. He hadn't won a Graded Stakes race since the Carter back in April so he had been slowly falling down the rankings but this win makes him second only to Zensational. He needs to head to California though.

Power Rankings: Lookin At Lucky is actually one of the top 10 active horses in the country. It's a pretty rare thing for a 2yo to be ranked this high even before the Breeders' Cup which is obviously a major help to whoever wins it. Lookin At Lucky has been phenomenal thus far. Music Note was the other major gainer this week. In just three starts she has captured the biggest sprint race for mares in New York and the biggest route race for mares. Thankfully her opening debacle this season is a distant memory. Her rating of 20.20 makes her joint 12th among active horses and a good showing in the Ladies Classic would see her climb further still.

Performance of the Week: I don't often give Performance of the Week to a horse that lost a race but Always a Princess impressed me the most this past weekend. She came into the Oak Leaf with many things against her. She had never been beyond 5 1/2f and now she was going two turns. She had never faced winners but she was being asked to face stakes winners and to top it all off she drew the rail which often spells death to the inexperienced. She broke with the field but had to be asked in order to get to the lead. In her first start she was sitting 10 lengths off the pace early but here she set a pace that was just on the quick side. Sterling Outlook set nearly identical fractions in the Norfolk and he wound up dead last. Always a Princess could not deal with Blind Luck but she did stay on gamely and fight off the challenge of Bickersons. With the pace and all other factors being so much against her I thought it was a colossal performance. Always a Princess goes to the head of my Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies list. With a better draw, more experience and a different pace scenario she can beat anyone I've seen so far.

Race of the Week: Despite the fact that the finish was not that tight I thought the Jockey Club Gold Cup was the most exciting race to watch. You had to know the context. Summer Bird on a serious roll looking to establish himself as the clear 3yo leader. Quality Road, the talented and brilliant, whose reputation probably outdoes his significant accomplishments. The winner of this match would go into the Breeders' Cup as the top sophomore of their gender. The older horses failed to involve themselves in this race at all it was pretty clear that we were going to see them duke it out as they entered the stretch. For a brief moment it looked like it might get desperate but Summer Bird found something extra and powered a length clear. Quality Road never gave up and performed with much credit but clearly Summer Bird is the better of the two at the distance. I felt like this race was what racing is supposed to be about. Everyone wanted questions answered in head to head fashion and that's what we got.

Flop of the Week: Very few good horses ran badly this weekend so I'm going to have to pick on Get Serious. He was running in the Cliff Hanger at the Meadowlands. Get Serious was 4 for 5 this year and he had not finished out of the frame in a Turf race since he faced Big Brown, Shakis, Proudinsky and company at Monmouth. There were no killers in the Cliff Hanger so he was justifiably sent off as the favorite at around 2/1. Unfortunately for his backers and connections he just didn't come to play. He offered no resistance in the stretch and was quickly swallowed up by the pack. He only avoided a last place finish by a nose. Get Serious is a better horse than that.

Tip O'the Cap: I wanted to give my congratulations to Kodiak Kowboy and to Steve Asmussen as well for his victory in the Vosburgh. Indian Blessing gets praised for being a BC Juvenile race winner still in action and winning stakes but once upon a time I actually selected Kodiak Kowboy to win the Juvenile. He ran a decent third that day and he's been a solid course all of his career. I think he may actually appreciate the Asmussen program a bit more than what Jones was doing with him. Under Asmussen he is 6 for 11 and has never really run a dull race. With Jones he was 4 for 11 and often times he just didn't look like a horse that was really trying.

KC Handicapping: This will be the last installment of the Kennedy's Corridor Handicapping roundup. I have decided that I am no longer comfortable giving out advice that I know will lose you money over the long term. Not that I believe that anyone follows my suggestions blindly but in life away from cyberspace I spend a good bit of time investing in the lives of people that have come from or are in difficult life situations. I got to thinking, is the handicapping advice I give something I'd want them reading?

All things considered I think I do decently with my selections compared to other people. It's hard to turn a profit when making selections for a race a day or two in advance. Most people that offer these types of picks don't keep score because it's extremely difficult to show a profit. My handicapping tips have been good for a loss of 11% over a period of a couple years. I work in the finance sector and I couldn't in good conscience give this kind of advice at work so I'm choosing not to give it in my spare time either.

Does this mean I'll never handicap another race? I've always enjoyed the challenge of finding winners but I am not a gambler. I'm going to have opinions about certain races, especially big races but I'm not going to approach them with the thought of value or turning a profit. I enjoy racing primarily as a fan and in the future I'm going to be focusing this blog more on being a fan than a handicapper.

Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird and Music Note were all short priced winners so it was another negative week. Going against Gio Ponti was the correct move but I came up with the wrong horse in Telling. Interpatation is one that I never would have selected, a horse with a profile like that is simply always going to beat me. I was a bit shocked that Kodiak Kowboy got to Fabulous Strike. I thought the Strike would have more than enough to hold him off.

Weekly Record: 9(7)-3-1-0 (-$7.40 -41.11% ROI)
Overall Record: 813(463)-141-128-102 (-$181.90 -11.19% ROI)

KSR's This Weekend

2009-10-02T14:17:00.004-06:00

Here are some of the Kennedy Speed Ratings for the cards at Belmont on Saturday and Oak Tree on Sunday. Make of these figures what you will. They are still very much in the test phase but I thought some people might be interested in seeing how the tests are going.

Just as a reminder, the basic premise of these figures is that any horse with a rating of 100 or more is considered fast enough to win this particular event. In my database of races calculated it looks like the horses with a 100+ rating win about 70% of the time.

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-10-02T10:41:00.003-06:00

Beldame Stakes
I don't trust any horse in this race. Music Note was fantastic last season but has been hit and miss this year. I do suspect though that her first race of the season came at a time when the stable was out of form and she just wasn't ready. She surprised me with her effectiveness at 7f in the Ballerina. She probably wins this over a lackluster field. Unbridled Belle has the right credentials if she's feeling up to it on the day but she has just become more inconsistent as time has gone on. Music Note in a yawner at 1/5.

Music Note

Vosburgh Stakes
This race is not unlike the Tom Fool Handicap that was run in July. That was supposed to be the big showdown between Fabulous Strike and Munnings but the Strike backed out on race day. His connections seemingly lacked the courage to face Munnings. Which is odd because Fabulous Strike would have been favored there just as he will be here. But I do think that the conditions are better for the Strike here because this is a 6f race. 7f favors Munnings but 6f is the specialty of Fabulous Strike. Go Go Shoot and Kodiak Kowboy are a good supporting cast but I think they're in for third money. I think that two factors are very important, Go Go Shoot and the weather. Munnings will not win this race without a big pace pushing effort from Go Go Shoot and a dry track. The former seems like something you can count on. The latter is definitely up in the air (no pun intended). My feeling is that the track will be wet and Fabulous Strike will defeat Munnings. But Munnings, should he be given the chance, has a much better claim for victory in the BC Sprint. Fabulous Strike is in a unique class as a sprinter. He has shown that he can take unbelievable pressure at 6f and still run to the line. Zensational is not a member of his class, not yet at least. Munnings can definitely be that good but I think a wet track deprives him of that explosive kick he's got.

Fabulous Strike

Flower Bowl Invitational
This is an exciting contest and a good chance to get away from chalky picks in short fields. My own figures say that the race comes down to Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset but I really don't think it's that simple. Dynaforce, Leamington and Moneycantbuymelove all have big chances. I won't quickly forget the race Rosinka ran in the 07' Flower Bowl for Graham Motion. Like Leamington, Rosinka was a tough front runner in the form of her life. Her campaign gained traction at Keeneland, she had a couple of early summer starts and then was layed off until the end of Saratoga where she took a stakes race. Leamington has had a very similar buildup to this race and Motion is very dangerous in the fall months. Her speed figures look a touch shy of the best but if she improves on her last, which I think she is set to do she can win this race. Dynaforce has to be heavily respected as well and I think she's actually the horse to beat. Belmont, like Arlington, is a nice deep course which seems to suit her perfectly. Dynaforce is also a qualifier on a new angle I'm working on. I know I haven't ever really looked at pedigree but after my post last week I got to thinking about ways to catch well bred talented horses. Dynaforce is a horse I'm going to refer to as a "Blue Blood" and I'm interested to see how she does not only here but in every subsequent start. From a pace perspective Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset will be hoping that Criticism and Leamington lock horns but I really don't see a duel developing. I think Criticism takes back and is never heard from again while Leamington has things her own way. Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset may be chasing in vain in the final furlong. Moneycantbuymelove is a wildcard. I think she has only shown form good enough once but it was in her last race so it's not exactly intelligent to pass her off. I don't feel strongly about her but I fear her so she gets on the ticket.

Dynaforce
Leamington
Moneycantbuymelove

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational
This race is an invitational which to me begs the question - How on earth did Ready's Echo and Interpatation get invited? I suppose I'll be red faced if either of them win but they look totally out of their element here. Gio Ponti is the class and the ground looks to be coming together for Grand Couturier. But I can see both of them getting beat. Gio Ponti is my favorite horse in training and it's been a great year to follow him but he always did look like a horse with stamina issues. Is 12f too far? I guess we'll find out. He ought to be heavily favored in this race because he is the most likely winner but seeing his stamina give out would not be a great surprise to me. Grand Couturier is rounding into his best form just like he was last year he'll be a huge danger to Gio Ponti but I think the best value play here is Telling. His last race shocked me but a repeat wouldn't. I think he's come into the best form of his life and 12f is perfect for him. I think he and the other two I've been mentioning will settle this but of course Telling will be far and away the best price.

Telling

Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
Once again and perhaps to my peril I'm going to go against Macho Again. I see his merits but I think the three year olds are better horses. Summer Bird is the new Curlin, he's getting stronger and stronger as the year goes on both physically and with his results. I think the likely off track here helps him defeat the other really talented horse in here, Quality Road. I still think that Quality Road will be the more brilliant horse but 9f is probably better for him and a wet track is a real question mark in my mind. These two are the fastest in the race and other than maybe thinking about a price on Dry Martini underneath I'd just use the sophomores. I think Summer Bird powers home once again over a much more stubborn Quality Road.

Summer Bird

Oak Leaf Stakes
I think it's probably best to go against Baffert's hot pot Always a Princess. Sure she made a great debut but many juveniles regress off of their first performance and she's drawn the rail in here. I'm not a big fan of taking inexperienced horses on the rail. Of course that bias blew up in my face when Hot Dixie Chick romped at the Spa but I'm willing to take my chances that Always a Princess is not another Hot Dixie Chick. I'm going to focus on Blind Luck and Softly Singing. Blind Luck has only lost once in three starts and that was in a G-1 to Mi Sueno. That's as good a resume as you'll find right now. My one worry with her is that she seemed to hang a bit in her last, or maybe she just had problems closing with a rush against horses that were also closing out the race pretty well. Either way it made for a less than stirring visual impression. Blind Luck is the class in my opinion but she's no slam dunk. I was very impressed with the maiden win by Softly Singing. She was aggressive but still reserved, she moved powerfully when asked and seemed very focused and professional. I suspect that she came out of that race with a fair bit of fizz and ginger because Hollendorfer has put her through 5 timed workouts since her last race just a month ago! I think this filly is as sharp as a razor and I expect a very big effort from her.

Softly Singing

Norfolk Stakes
I tried really hard to find a reason to oppose Lookin At Lucky. I tried Gallant Gent, Dave in Dixie and Pulsion on for size but none of them quite fit what I'm looking for in an upsetter. Lookin At Lucky is likely just the best horse and he's supposed to win this race. But watch for the horses that run well behind him. There could be some real BC Juvenile potential among the others. Lucky does not have me convinced that he's championship quality yet but he is more than good enough to win the Norfolk.

Lookin At Lucky

Rating Performance Rates

2009-10-01T10:01:00.003-06:00

I'm expecting the entries to be drawn for Belmont's Saturday card any time now but while we wait to get a glance at the Past Performances I thought I'd fill up my time by posing a question that has perplexed me for many months.

Just what is the point of "Performance Rates"?

Most people have no idea what I'm talking about because despite the fact that Performance Rates have been around for a few years they get very little publicity. Thoroughbred Times actually features a link to them on their main page. Which you'd think would be exposure enough to have them more widely known. They were also developed by the Jockey Club, you have to think there is some clout there.

The basic premise of Performance Rates is clearly stated in the paragraph below that can be found by visiting Thoroughbred Times.

"Performance Rates are an objective measurement of racetrack performance developed by the Jockey Club Information Systems. Performance Rates assign a rate to horses based upon beaten lengths - who beat whom and by how much - with some adjustments made to standardize beaten distances to account for horses that are not pressed or eased in large fields. Time is not a factor in Performance Rates, which are based on every start by every horse in North America. Performance Rates are expressed in lengths around a theoretical mean of zero. The average Performance Rates of the best horses in a given year are generally about 30 lengths better than an average performance of the average horse."

Sounds good, a system created to tell us how much better certain horses are than the average, but what do Performance Rates look like in reality. Here are the current standings for 2009.

Overall Top 10
Rachel Alexandra - 39.33
Icon Project - 32.03
Mine That Bird - 31.14
Mr. Fantasy - 31.06
Munnings - 30.97
Dunkirk - 30.57
Quality Road - 30.54
Old Fashioned - 29.89
Musket Man - 29.81
Summer Bird - 29.30

Top 5 Older Males
Unbridled's Heart - 25.72
To Tell The Truth - 25.01
Tizway - 23.60
Macho Again - 23.30
Jen's Revenge - 23.26

Top 5 Turf Horses
Take the Points - 23.96
Better Talk Now - 22.72
Grand Couturier - 22.44
Gio Ponti - 22.07
Brass Hat - 21.97

I could go on listing all the divisions but if you know anything about horse racing then you're probably asking the same question as me. Why do rankings this horrendous even exist and furthermore why does a major racing publication promote them?

We are talking about a system so useful that even it's creators make no mention of it on their own website (Jockey Club Information Systems).

I'm sure the Darley Stable would be thrilled to learn that they in fact have the best older horse in the nation! Unbridled's Heart is win-less in three allowance starts this year but apparently that's all it takes. Maybe this will encourage them to retire him, you know, now that he has nothing left to prove.

I actually tried to reverse engineer these numbers to come up with an explanation for the erroneous results. No luck, these numbers seem to have little rhyme or reason.

Most of you will know that I actually do support the creation of point systems that help us quantify racing. I think it's a major hole in our industry. We can't easily point to any guide that allows us to quickly get a feel for the major players in each division. Performance Rates, however, are not the answer to this dilemma and they get an "F" and they should also be removed from cyberspace immediately.

The more you look at them the more you realize why no one else has ever mentioned them. Some things are best forgotten. In fact I apologize for bringing them to your attention.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-09-30T07:36:00.005-06:00

September 30th

Ladies Classic
1. Icon Project (1)
2. Zenyatta (2)
3. Music Note (3)
4. Careless Jewel (4)
5. Acoma (5)

It's the calm before the storm in the Ladies Classic division. All five of the mares should be in action over the next two weeks although probably few of them will face each other. Zenyatta will go to the Lady's Secret, Careless Jewel to the Cotillion, Music Note will take on the Beldame and I fully expect to see Acoma in the Spinster. Icon Project is the undecided wild card. She will either go in the Beldame or the Spinster and if she is to retain that #1 ranking she probably shouldn't lose either race.

The Beldame makes sense because Icon Project has already performed very well there but connections will be curious about her synthetic track form so the Spinster is a draw as well. One caution I would make is that Keeneland's form has not necessarily held up in California. They are very different surfaces despite both being synthetic. You'll see a lot more turf horses having success at Keeneland than you will at Santa Anita. The good news for Icon Project is that she's already proven she can handle turf and dirt. She is better on the dirt but turf has not been a problem.

Zenyatta's inactivity has created a scenario where people are actually forgetting that she's quite a mare. The close call in her last start only added fuel to the fire. But make no mistake Zenyatta is still a running machine. It would take a lifetime best effort from any of these fillies to beat her.

European Rainbow View does enter my thinking for this race but at this point I'm not willing to accept that she is automatically as good as the rest of these. Being European does not entitle her to some higher level of performance. I think many Europeans will be overbet this year because people are like sheep. They're going to chase the perception that Turf horses and Europeans specifically have a major advantage. As always it should be evaluated on a case by case basis. In Rainbow View's case were looking at a horse that has mostly underachieved after a scintillating juvenile campaign. The surface switch might help wake her up but I have legitimate questions about how good she really is.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Dar Re Mi (1)
2. Midday (2)
3. Forever Together (3)
4. Pure Clan (5)
5. Gozzip Girl (4)

I didn't make any major changes to the rankings this week other than flip flopping Pure Clan and Gozzip Girl. The reason I did so is because of the news that Gozzip Girl is headed to Keeneland for the QE II instead of staying at Belmont for the Flower Bowl. I would have much preferred to see her against older horses prior to the Breeders' Cup. I also like the timing of the Flower Bowl better. The QE II Challenge Cup is three weeks before the Breeders' Cup whereas the Flower Bowl gives you five weeks. Pure Clan incidentally will be in the Flower Bowl and if it comes up firm she should have a big shot. She's not the kind of filly that I expect to see in the winners circle regularly. She just has to run well to show that she's in good form.

Forever Together is not ranked in third because of her failing in Canada. I had actually moved her to third prior to that race and I expected a sub par performance on a track that she just doesn't handle as well. Some just thought it was the ground that did her in last year so they're puzzled as to why she didn't win on firmer ground this year. I always suspected that it was the one turn configuration she didn't like. In two turn races on the grass she is 5-5-0-0 with an average Beyer of 102.8. Around one turn she is 5-1-2-2 with and average Beyer of 95.8. Her only win around one turn on the grass was in a listed stakes at Arlington. You should see Forever Together back in form at Keeneland.

I do, however, think that Dar Re Mi and Midday might be better horses than Forever Together. Defending her crown against these Europeans might be extremely tough.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura (1)
2. Informed Decision (2)
3. Indian Blessing (4)
4. Sara Louise (new)
5. Carlsbad (3)

Dropped: Game Face (5)

I was personally quite thrilled with the Gallant Bloom and despite the fact that it's in vogue to doubt Indian Blessing on synthetics I'm going to step up and say that she has a real shot here. Indian Blessing had been favored in everyone of her lifetime starts until the Gallant Bloom where she was 1.40/1 to Sara Louise's 1.35/1. Indian Blessing has never been longer odds than 1.80/1. It's pretty incredible really. But at this years Filly and Mare Sprint you're going to see 5/1 or higher on her. That represents great value on a horse that has missed a grand total of one exacta placing in her entire career.

She did have that terrible race at Hollywood, which is why the doubters abound but it was her first race back from Dubai. Those comeback efforts are often below par. It was also run over Hollywood's brand of synthetic which of course does differ from Santa Anita's. At Santa Anita she is actually 3-2-1-0. Her only loss came to Ventura in last year's event when the pace was very sharp. Indian Blessing is a major threat to win this race and she may be the best value of her life.

I've dropped Game Face from my top 5 not through any fault of her own but due to the fact that Sara Louise and the Godolphin stable as a whole have really come on this fall. They also have Seventh Street for this race but I'm not as big a fan of hers. I'm not sure that she has the stuff to dig out a win when she needs to. Sara Louise is a horse that really impressed me last year. In fact I picked her to beat Rachel Alexandra in the Golden Rod because her move in the Pocahontas was so explosive. At the time I thought she was the filly that was destined for greatness. She has done little wrong as a 3yo. Although she hasn't tried synthetics she looks like a good fit for them. She definitely has the potential to upset Ventura and Informed Decision who have looked nearly invincible for so long.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Beautician (1)
2. She Be Wild (2)
3. Blind Luck (3)
4. Awesome Maria (4)
5. Midst (5)

Dropped: Mi Sueno (2)

The news we received yesterday about the injury to Mi Sueno was pretty sad. Not only did she have a big chance in the Breeders' Cup but she also might have turned into a very good horse. Now her entire career is in jeopardy.

Since Hot Dixie Chick is most likely not going to be attending the Breeders' Cup party this race may seem like a consolation prize of sorts.

Beautician is still my #1 selection, I expect her to face off with She Be Wild in the Alcibiades. That ought to be an exciting contest. I think Beautician has been the better horse to date but the pint sized over achiever from Chicago can't be taken too lightly. Wayne Catalano is very good with young horses.

So is Stanley Hough and I was very impressed with his Awesome Maria in the Matron. She just looks so physically imposing even at this early stage. She's going to be a well built muscular filly. I like that she is able to break well and even keep pace early on in sprints but finishing is really her forte. I think two turns will be a good fit. The one downside to her is the schedule she is currently on. Not many horses these days run in the Matron, Frizette and Juvenile Fillies especially when they have to ship cross country. I don't want her to come to the juvenile without a route prep race but most likely if she gets one her cautious trainer won't be inclined to ship her to California. We'll have to wait and see. She's a good horse and she fully deserves to be on this list.

Defending Champions

2009-09-29T12:11:00.002-06:00

I'm really looking forward to the Breeders' Cup this year. It's not really that significant since I get really pumped for it every year but this time around I am especially intrigued by the large number of defending champions we have returning to try and capture Breeders' Cup races once again.

Goldikova, Zenyatta, Ventura, Forever Together, Conduit and Desert Code are all on track to run in the Breeders' Cup again. We actually also have Stardom Bound, Red Rocks, Indian Blessing and maybe Midshipman who have all won Breeders' Cup races but won't be defending champions this fall at Santa Anita.

The Breeders' Cup has never had so many stars returning in a single year. Last year we had four (Curlin, Kip Deville, Ginger Punch, Midnight Lute) and that seemed like a big number but six is right over the top.

I decided to take a look back and see how defending champions in the past have fared. Since it's inauguration the Breeders' Cup has had 40 horses return to defend their titles in the same race the following year. Only 6 of them (15%) managed to be successful the second time around.

A flat $2 win bet on each of these entrants would have cost $80 and returned just $44.40 for a -44.5% loss.

45% of the defending champions did manage to hit the frame but they did so at an average price of 4.50/1.

You don't get very much value out of them typically. These 40 horses won their Breeders' Cup at an average price of 11/1 but they returned to defend their crowns at an average price of 6.20/1.

Four or five of the six defending champions could wind up being favored but the odds say that only one of them is likely to win. Which one would you pick if you had to choose only one?

I think I'd have to go with Goldikova.

Grade One Probables

2009-09-29T07:20:00.006-06:00

These next three weeks are almost like the equivalent of the playoffs in other sports. We recognize that it's not quite the championship yet but the next few weeks will shape and define the championships. A horse's last prep before the Breeders' Cup is a big deal. Hold Me Back already flubbed his last prep and is now being put away for the year. I'm always intrigued by the matchup's in the prep races. It can be tough task finding out who might be facing who. Below is my best guess on the probable entrants for the 23 G-1 events being run over the next three weeks. Some of this is conjecture but most of it was gleaned from various articles. Hopefully some of the matchup's on this list get you excited!

Vosburgh - Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Ready's Echo, Go Go Shoot

Flower Bowl - Dynaforce, Caribbean Sunset, Criticism, Pure Clan, Lemonette, Leamington. Moneycantbuymelove, Queen of Hearts

Beldame - Icon Project, Music Note, Swift Temper, Unbridled Belle, Captain's Lover, Briecat, Copper State, Morena

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Gio Ponti, Presious Passion, Grand Couturier, Telling, Al Khali

Jockey Club Gold Cup - Summer Bird, Quality Road, Asiatic Boy, Dry Martini, Macho Again, Tizway, Sette E Mezzo

Alcibiades - She Be Wild, Beautician, Worstcasescenario

Breeders' Futurity - Aspire, Aikenite

Oak Leaf - Blind Luck, Always a Princess, Pure Class, Softly Singing, La Nez

Norfolk - Lookin At Lucky, Dave in Dixie, Pulsion, John Scott, Court Mischief, Jung Man Scott, Smiling Tiger

Frizette - Hot Dixie Chick, Worstcasescenario, Awesome Maria

Champagne - Dublin, Gun Rock, Condemned, Not Macho Any More

Jamaica - Courageous Cat, Take the Points

First Lady - Forever Together, Tizaqueena

Shadwell Turf Mile - Justenuffhumor, Mr. Sidney

Spinster - Indescribable, Mushka

Lady's Secret - Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach, Life Is Sweet, Anabaa's Creation

Clement L Hirsch - Spring House, Sir Dave, Artiste Royal

Ancient Title - Gayego, Cost of Freedom, Talkin to Mom Roo, Atta Boy Roy

Yellow Ribbon - Magical Fantasy, Black Mamba, Life Is Sweet, Internallyflawless, Gotta Have Her

Goodwood - Tiago, Mine That Bird, Richard's Kid, Parading, Colonel John, Chocolate Candy

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup - Gozzip Girl, Miss World, Hot Cha Cha, Shared Account, Keertana, Lady Shakespeare

E.P. Taylor - Princess Haya, Much Obliged, Points of Grace, Rutherienne, Salve Germania

Canadian International - Marsh Side, Marchfield, Champs Elysees, Ask, Sariska, Just As Well, Casual Conquest, Buccelletti, Jukebox Jury

Weekend Review

2009-09-28T10:23:00.002-06:00

Overview: It was a pretty quiet weekend. The Kentucky Cup series looked like it could have been a good preparation for Breeders' Cup hopefuls but as the synthetic cloud settled it was pretty clear that no potential Breeders' Cup winners were in action. Indescribable ran a decent race against poor competition but it was not a Ladies Classic caliber performance. Same with the Canadian colt El Brujo who took the KY Cup Sprint. Fatal Bullet was a Canadian based sprinter who followed the same path and was second in the Breeders' Cup but El Brujo seems about 7 lengths inferior to where Fatal Bullet was last year. Hold Me Back was all the rage in the Classic but he never lifted a hoof in 6th place. Furthest Land and Dubious Miss both ran excellent races but it's hard to see connections pushing onto the Classic with horses that had only previously attempted Graded Stakes company once. It was a good race but they'd both likely fit in better at the upcoming Keeneland meet. Maybe a race like the Fayette. It was Indian Blessing and Sara Louise who really put on a show. The Gallant Bloom was definitely the best race of the weekend.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Virtually no changes to these rankings because there were really very few Graded Stakes run this weekend. The next two weeks are among the most pivotal of the entire racing season. The contenders should really start to pull away from the pack with big points on the line in multiple Grade 1 events.

Power Rankings: Indian Blessing was the only major mover in this quiet week. She moved into second in the Female Sprinter division behind Informed Decision. Remember though that Ventura is only not a part of this division officially because she's been more of a turf horse so far but a win at the Breeders' Cup on the main track will put her back in here and bump Indian Blessing down a bit. Informed Decision and Ventura have been the best Female Sprinters this year but the defending champion Indian Blessing has been the best of the rest and her campaign has been somewhat unlucky.

Performance of the Week/Race of the Week: I couldn't help but roll these two categories into one. The race of the week was obviously the Gallant Bloom Handicap. Indian Blessing's part in the race was also the best performance of the week. It seemed like a bit of an awkward trip for Indian Blessing as she didn't make the early pace and she had to make a somewhat premature move through a hole on the fence in order to avoid getting stuck down there. I thought she was beaten in the last 1/16th because she hadn't really opened up and Sara Louise looked to be finishing the stronger. But Indian Blessing had obviously had enough of losing. Three in a row is quite a losing streak for a horse of her quality. The youngster Sara Louise just could not match the tenacity of this two time champion. Indian Blessing has been a real treat to follow throughout her career. I hope we all realize how rare it is to have a juvenile champion still running so well and so consistently at 4 years of age.

Flop of the Week: Hold Me Back was a major disappointment in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He has often been a "nearly" type of horse and bettors made him the favorite here because of his second place finish in the Travers. The competition didn't look that great and he was the only horse with real Breeders' Cup aspirations. Those aspirations had to have been choked out by the recycled rubber and wax. He was supposed to like the surface so what went wrong? Maybe he's just not that good. Lucky Island and Songster also looked pretty bad in a minor stakes race at Belmont on Friday. At one time these were killers in the sprint division. Now they're cheap fodder in allowance and listed stakes company.

Tip O'the Cap: It was pretty neat to see Gomez sweep the Kentucky Cup Stakes races. When I first noted him riding in the Classic I looked through the card to find out which horse he had probably flown into town to ride. I guess the correct answer is all of them. Those were his only three rides of the day and all of them were well timed moves from off the pace. Furthest Land and El Brujo only just got there and Gomez certainly made a difference with them. $240,820 in purse money and a trio of Graded Stakes wins is a pretty good day at the office.

KC Handicapping: Dubious Miss suffered a narrow defeat to Furthest Land who was astutely selected by the commentor Eric. Apparently Furthest Land had the best breeding for this race. He also happened to be well respected in my own Speed Ratings. The KSR identified 4 horses that were fast enough to win the KY Cup Classic. They ran 1, 2, 3 and 6 sweeping a $557 trifecta and a $69 exacta. Unfortunately I only focused on Dubious Miss, who I considered to be the strongest of the alternatives to the favorite. But Furthest Land and Sligovitz would have been good to throw on the ticket as well.

Weekly Record: 1(1)-0-1-0 (-$2.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 804(456)-138-127-102 (-$174.50 -10.85% ROI)

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-09-25T10:20:00.002-06:00

Kentucky Cup Classic
This is the only stakes race of note that caught my eye this weekend. It's being billed as the perfect prep to get Hold Me Back to the Classic. I think it is a pretty decent spot for him and he's also the best horse in the race. But I do think it might be worth opposing him because it's his first try against older horses and he seems to need a bit of pace to run at. There are a few horses in this race that could set the pace but none of them are real speed balls and this could be a more tactical affair. I'm going to lean towards Dubious Miss because I think he is the best of the early pace/stalkers. Dubious Miss, like Hold Me Back, has a decent record on synthetics but has spent most of his career running on different surfaces. He gets Borel back in the saddle and interestingly enough he's 5 for 5 with Borel and 1 for 8 with everyone else. Whatever Calvin says to him in the warm up it seems to do the trick. Last time out he sat behind a ridiculously slow pace and could not get to the winner but he did run a very good race. I hope he improves with a slightly better pace scenario and hopefully he has enough to hold off Hold Me Back in the final furlong.

Dubious Miss

Just Enough Pedigree

2009-09-24T07:53:00.004-06:00

It's not often that a comment inspires a post on this blog but that's mostly because only a few people leave comments. This particular comment was left at the Thoroughbred Champions homepage where this blog is also published.

Here is what Eric had to say in response to some negative comments I made about Justenuffhumor and his chances in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

"When I love a horse as much as Gone Astray or justenuffhumor, it is because of 1 reason. The absolute best bloodlines that the game has to offer. Inside information and smuggler gives me reason to believe that Gone Astray may be unbeatable when the phipps strike with him. The pensylvania derby 10 length win was the first step and I believe Gone Astray will prove it once again if entered in the BC. Justenuffhumor stems from a mare that made Kittens joy, precious kitten, and Dreaming of Anna. These names are special to say the least. Now Kiaran mclaughlin has his chance with this golden breeding and I am willing to give a gaurantee about justenuffhumor in a game where guarantees are hard to give. We shall see."

Eric

I have nothing against the breeding side of the game but I do feel that breeding is misleading when it comes to specific races.

A primary focus on breeding is not precise enough for me. Yes it's true that Gone Astray is regally bred. I'm not a breeding guy and I can easily see that but betting on him to fulfill that promise has been a losing venture.

Sure he ran huge in the Pennsylvania Derby but that was his 6th career route race and his first win in a non sprint event. Even if you cashed in Pennsylvania you lost overall while betting him in routes because he only paid $11.40. So right now you'd be down $0.60.

For me breeding is a good indicator of a horses possible overall potential. It can also give clues regarding a horses surface and distance preferences but I just can't make a case for it to be the bedrock of my handicapping.

There are just too many well bred horses losing races that their bloodlines claim they should win. In can see why others differ in their approach though. They are looking at the specific career of a single horse whereas I'm focusing on one particular moment in time.

Justenuffhumor is a good horse and I think he'll win his fair share of races but I view the Breeders' Cup Mile as a race for specialists and he's not a Mile specialist. It seems to me that 9f is actually his best distance. Unless he shows me something different in an 8f race I'm not going to be backing him for the win in the Breeders' Cup.

Many will really disagree with me but I am always going to defer my opinion of a horse to what they've done on the track as opposed to what their bloodlines claim they could be. To me bloodlines are just one piece of the puzzle and that piece becomes less significant as their career unfolds and they show what they can actually do. Fathers are often many things that their sons aren't and vice versa.

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-09-23T07:28:00.003-06:00

September 23rd

Classic
1. Rail Trip (1)
2. Rip Van Winkle (2)
3. Mastercraftsman (3)
4. Einstein (4)
5. Parading (5)

No change to my Classic rankings this week although there could be some movement after this weekend. Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman could be in action at Ascot this weekend and of course that result could impact both their Classic ranking and even which Breeders' Cup race they're pointed at. Rip Van Winkle is the scariest horse right now, he just got good before his minor injury. If he come back in the same or better form he might find himself the top ranked horse in the Classic division.

Hold Me Back also runs in the Kentucky Cup Classic this weekend and a good performance from him puts him right in the mix. He and Summer Bird are already knocking on the door just below Parading so any flash of brilliance would be enough to see him upgraded. I like his closing style and also the fact that he's been so effective on synthetic surfaces.

Turf
1. Fame And Glory (1)
2. Conduit (2)
3. Spanish Moon (new)
4. Gio Ponti (4)
5. Kite Wood (5)

Dropped: Tartan Bearer (3)

Tartan Bearer has unfortunately come up injured and will not be contesting the Breeders' Cup. it's a shame because he would have had a big impact.

I still see Fame And Glory as far and away the best horse in this group. I only hope his connections still want to bring him after the Arc.

Kite Wood may have lost the St. Leger to his stablemate Mastery but I think the Turf is still a great fit for him. I got the impression that the 14f St. Leger was a bit too far for him. I think he's the best 12f Turf horse that the boys in blue have got and he should be given his chance in America.

Spanish Moon is a very interesting horse. He is a very talented son of El Prado but he's had some mental problems with regards to the gate. He was actually barred from racing in England over the summer because of his antics. But no matter he has used that time to go undefeated in France. Why is he now ranked so high? The suspension in England has actually helped him because it means he's been trained like a French horse instead of an English one. Most English horses are primed for a big summer. Royal Ascot in June, then the Eclipse, King George, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion stakes in September comprise the bulk of the season for top flight horses. Consequently a lot of English horses are out of gas by the fall. French horses by contrast are aimed at the Fall. That's why Andre Fabre has such a great record in the Arc and Breeders' Cup. Back to Spanish Moon, he hasn't had any races between June and mid September. I think he'll have a big fall. He's been first or second in all of his last 6 races and his one experience on a North American-like track was a positive one. He lost by just a nose in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

A horse I won't touch for this race is Just As Well. I know he earned a G-1 win last weekend but the form of that race was pretty poor. He's a bet against if he shows up because he's not in the same class as even Gio Ponti, let alone the top Europeans.

Mile
1. Goldikova (1)
2. Delegator (3)
3. Ghanaati (4)
4. Aqlaam (new)
5. Ferneley (new)

Dropped: Bribon (2), Rahy's Attorney (5)

Who is the best miler in North America? My feeling is that it's Gio Ponti followed closely by Ventura. Who is the best miler in North America that is pointing to the BC Mile? That's a much tougher question to answer. I'm not necessarily sold on the fact that a European has to win the Mile this year but I'm honestly having trouble coming up with the name of a local that's good enough to beat them. The Woodbine Mile was a bit of a dream crusher in that regard. I thought Bribon would run well enough to convince his connections to go. I thought the same for Rahy's Attorney but both failed the test and both will now go down different paths that don't include a stop at Santa Anita.

So who is left? Some people will really get behind Justenuffhumor. I am not on that boat at all. He would have to be extremely impressive in the Kelso or Keeneland Mile to change my mind. If he just wins like he has been doing I won't be using him.

The European Aqlaam has made the list as a temporary stop gap. I'm not sure if he's coming. I do know that he's a solid horse and he'll do until other contenders emerge.

I've tossed Ferneley on the list despite the fact that he's not nominated because at least he's shown that on occasion he can run a big race that puts him in the hunt against top class milers. I know that's a thin case but it's all I've got at present. Besides Ventura's 108 BSF for winning the Woodbine Mile Ferneley owns the two highest 8f Turf BSF's this year.

This race is crying out for some real North American contenders to be born in the Oak Tree Mile, Kelso and Keeneland Mile. Keep a close eye on those races.

Sprint
1. Fatal Bullet (1)
2. Zensational (2)
3. Munnings (3)
4. Ready's Echo (4)
5. Noble Court (new)

Dropped: Jungle Wave (5)

Fatal Bullet is back on track and working and I expect my confidence to grow on him in the next month. He's just as much a monster as Zensational on the synthetics but he gets far less press. Connections might choose to send him to the Ancient Title as a last prep which would drive down his price for the Sprint but it would be a good indicator of his real talent.

Poor Jungle Wave ran his heart out in the Woodbine Mile and if he were my horse I'd definitely be looking at the Sprint. But the people that actually own him seem to be leaning elsewhere with him. If they change their minds I'm on board but until then I have to drop him.

Noble Court is not good enough to win the Sprint unless there is a monumental pace meltdown but I do think he is the second best sprinter in California at the moment. That should count for something.

It's hard to see past the top two, everyone else looks like a second rate choice.

Juvenile
1. Lookin At Lucky (2)
2. Dublin (3)
3. Aspire (4)
4. Pulsion (5)
5. Dave in Dixie (new)

Dropped: Sidney's Candy (1)

Just one week into the rankings for the Juvenile and I've already lost my #1. Sidney's Candy has unfortunately come up with a minor injury that will keep him out of the Juvenile. He ought to be back for the Hollywood meet so look for him in the Futurity.

As a result of that defection Lookin At Lucky takes over as the top horse. I'm fairly confident that he could be beaten but his competition is pretty under developed at this stage.

I've decided not to include either D'Funnybone or Discreetly Mine off of their performances in the Futurity. D'Funnybone's owner and trainer need to sit down and have a talk because Paul Pompa is saying that the Juvenile is next for him while Dutrow is saying that he's like to take the Champagne then wrap him up for the year. Neither scenario makes him a good pick in my opinion. I hate runners that come directly from the Futurity (or Matron) directly to the Breeders' Cup. The only time I give them a serious look is when the BC is at Belmont because of the one turn configuration. I just think that the 7f Futurity is not a good final prep for the Juvenile and horses with two turn experience generally always dominate.

Discreetly Mine looks like a good horse but will his connections given him another prep then ship all the way out west? Stanley Hough seems a bit more reticent than that to me and ultimately I think we'll see him in a race like the Remsen instead of the Juvenile.

I've added Dave in Dixie because he is more or less the kind of horse I'm looking for. He was an impressive winner from John Sadler's barn at Del Mar. He is based in California so it's not a big stretch to see him tossed into the mix even if he is not the most accomplished. The synthetic track experience coupled with a bit of talent is what I'm really looking for.

Weekend Review

2009-09-21T11:52:00.003-06:00

Overview: I thought this weekend was highlighted by the magic of knowing your horse. Bobby Frankel brought Ventura to Woodbine because there was a big purse being offered for a race that fit her preferences perfectly. Ventura is a one turn specialist and she flaunted her proficiency once again. Forever Together also came to Woodbine but she's the polar opposite of Ventura, she is definitely a two turn horse. Forever Together has never lost a two turn turf race but she's struggled mightily in one turn races. That struggle showed itself again as she was nosed out by the inferior Princess Haya. Don't worry too much about the reigning Female Turf champ. The division is won or lost in two turn events and she'll still have a couple of those left on her dance card this season. Regal Ransom looked good in the Super Derby but he's still a few notches short of the real cream from this crop. Blame on the other hand had the pace against him but still came with a bold run in the final few furlongs. His star seems to be on the rise. I wouldn't make too much out of D'Funnybone's latest runaway victory. I thought Discreetly Mine was equally impressive after having a rough trip. With Dutrow planning to take D'Funnybone straight to the Juvenile off this 7f effort he's an easy toss.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Just As Well got lucky when he inherited a win via DQ. He wasn't affected by the trouble but he did get most of the benefit. That result has propelled him into a firm second place in the Turf Male rankings and 6th overall! Who would have ever thought that Just As Well would be ranked higher than Forever Together?

Power Rankings: Ventura has gone from the head of one division to the head of another. The way Power Rankings work is that a horse is given a score based on their entire body of work but the division they get placed in is based on what kind of races make up the bulk of their score. Ventura had been the top Female Sprinter until this weekend when she captured a massive prize on the grass. That made her more of a grass horse than main track sprinter this season so she moved divisions. Expect her to flip flop back into contention for the top Female Sprinter after the Breeders' Cup.

Performance of the Week: Ventura was really good but the pace really helped her as well. She would certainly be a deserving choice for performance of the week but she's also every one's top choice. I'm going to go against the grain just a bit and say that I was personally quite impressed with Awesome Maria in the Matron. She sat right on the pace which was lively then looked powerful as she just extended away from the field. I'm pretty convinced that she'll go two turns and she's a pretty nice physical specimen for a 2yo filly as well.

Race of the Week: Surely the 2009 renewal of the Noble Damsel has to go down in history as one of the tightest non dead-heat finishes of all time. Check out the photo. What is that winning margin, like 3 millimeters? To the naked eye Rutherienne never had her nose in front, even her jockey Alan Garcia congratulated the rider of Quiet Meadow for winning. It just goes to show how important photo finish cameras are. A few weeks ago someone expressed surprise when I said that all dead heats awarded prior to the era of finish line camera's were suspect in my mind. This is why. Even an experienced eye could not have seen Rutherienne get in front at the line.

Flop of the Week: I thought Bribon was ridden far too close to the pace to be effective at Woodbine. Obviously his connections feared Rahy's Attorney more than they should have. Bribon was ridden from further back in the Met Mile, Cigar Mile and even the Saratoga allowance and he did just fine in those races. Here he struggled home without any real kick at all in the lane. He still managed to run 4th just a nose out of third but my feeling is that with some better tactics he could been flying home right with Ventura. Badly done by Alan Garcia.

Tip O'the Cap: 2007 Arlington Million winner Jambalaya was back in action for the first time since that victory and he picked up right where he left off! Okay maybe he wasn't quite back to that level but he did manage to win and he looked pretty good while doing it. Woodbine was never even his favorite course. He always seemed to do better away from his home track but it's great to see him back in action. Who knows, this 7 year old gelding may actually be a major contender for some of this seasons big Turf stakes. He is 19-9-1-6 in his career on the grass but he's 5-4-0-1 away from Woodbine. He's won G-1's at Gulfstream and Arlington and a graded stakes at Saratoga. Jambalaya is a serious horse and congratulations to his connections for getting him back to the races. Patience rewarded.

KC Handicapping: I missed the mark pretty badly this week. For a moment it seemed as if Quijano was going to be good enough but he just doesn't have enough punch in the lane. Rahy's Attorney was too close to a fast pace and he just wasn't good enough. It's been a rough little streak for my 20-20 profiles. Losses in the Woodbine Mile, Pacific Classic and Whitney are beginning to add up. All the 20-20 profiles combined are just $0.70 profitable this year nailing only 6 winners from 11 races. The overall overage is 195% ROI and 79% winners. The Breeders' Cup (eight established races) and Canadian International are the only races of the year left with a developed profile.

Weekly Record: 3(2)-0-1-0 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 803(455)-138-126-102 (-$172.50 -10.74% ROI)

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-09-18T11:32:00.004-06:00

I've calculated the Kennedy Speed Ratings (KSR) for each applicable race at Woodbine on Sunday. Unfortunately I could not find the BRISnet data for races 3, 10 and 11 so those have been left out. For anyone not familiar with these ratings the essential premise is that any horse rated 100 or higher is fast enough to win, the others are not. This system is still in it's infancy so posts like these are really more like tests rather than statements of confidence. Still perhaps a few of you will find it interesting.

Northern Dancer Stakes
It's a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I've ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he's in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It's hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he's only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It's hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I'm not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the "Euro bounce" last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That's good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don't like them as much.

Marchfield
Quijano

Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby I'm not sure that there's a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy's Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I've enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy's Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can't fault him because of a lack of information. I don't think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I'm going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I'm becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy's Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy's Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he's a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he's been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he's as good or better than he was last year. He won't be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I'll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy's Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we'll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It's more like the European tracks that he didn't do as well over. I'm hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.

Rahy's Attorney

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-09-16T06:58:00.004-06:00

Last week I gave my thoughts on the male Breeders' Cup races so this week I thought I'd finish things off by doing the major female races. My plan is to rotate back and form like this each week all the way to the Breeders' Cup.

September 16th

Ladies Classic
1. Icon Project
2. Zenyatta
3. Music Note
4. Careless Jewel
5. Acoma

Among the major Breeders' Cup Female races we have a rather unique situation. Three defending champions (four if you count Goldikova) are coming back and all of them will be expected to win. Zenyatta, Ventura and Forever Together could all be favored in their races but do we really accept the fact that these races will all be won by defending champs at short prices? I had to do a rethink on each race just to get away from that notion because I think it's easy and logical to go with the defending champions in each race but it's not going to happen. The Breeders' Cup talent pool is too deep for that to happen.

Zenyatta has never lost a race and she likely won't have lost a race by the time the Breeders' Cup rolls around. I have always thought that Zenyatta's weakness would be trying to run down top quality stalkers if the pace was not really quick. Coming from the back of the pack as she does that's always a risk and she's had a few close calls. I have her second in this group because I think her number will finally get called this fall and her unbeaten record will be sullied.

I think the filly to finally tame the wild Amazon will be Icon Project. She's a big powerful filly in her own right and she is in otherworldly form this year. As a daughter of Empire Maker she was never likely to be that choosy about surfaces. She has done reasonably well on the grass and originally it looked like her connections wanted to keep her on the turf. After all at one point she actually finished within 3/4 of a length of Dar Re Mi who is one of the finest turf fillies anywhere. But when the New York Handicap was washed off the grass a new career was born and Woflson found out that Icon Project was unbelievable on the main track. Three races on the dirt and she's earned nice Beyer's each time. Her only loss was because of a tactical blunder on a speed favoring track. Valdivia let Swift Temper get everything her own way at Delaware and it was far too late by the time she got going. It cost him the mount. Her Personal Ensign victory was reminiscent of another Phipps horse, Inside Information. Icon Project is a star on the rise and I think she'll love synthetics. She is a big tough filly capable of brilliance and she has the tactical advantage on Zenyatta. She's my #1.

Music Note looked horrendous in her first start back as a 4yo but she laid the fears about not training on to rest in the Ballerina. She was dominant over Indian Blessing and Informed Decision who will both be main contenders in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Connections might be tempted to keep her at 7f but I think she's going to stretch out. I expect to see her in the Beldame alongside stablemate Seventh Street. I think she's the far better filly of the two and with her Santa Anita form already set from last year she is the more logical pick for the Ladies classic as well.

Careless Jewel has gone from zero to hero in a remarkably short span of time. She was thought to be a pretty good thing by bettors at Keeneland in her debut. Josie Carroll first timers rarely take money at places like Keeneland but Careless Jewel was made the favorite. I feel back for her backers because that was the only day of her career that she didn't take home the money. She won a couple of races on Woodbine's Polytrack before setting off to Delaware and Saratoga where she earned Beyers of 104 and 106 in dominating stakes performances. We already know that she handles synthetics, now we know that she's a very dangerous speed horse even against stakes types. She could be controlling the pace on Breeders' Cup day and no horse has ever caught her once she's hit the front.

Acoma is something of a pet project of mine for this race. I probably have more faith in her than her connections do but I see all the tools being in place for her. She is another daughter of Empire Maker and have proven to be adept on all three surfaces. Most of her races have come on dirt but oddly enough dirt is the only surface she's ever lost on. She is undefeated on turf and synthetics. I like the quick move she has and some of her dirt form shows that she has the class to compete with the best.

Filly and Mare Turf
1. Dar Re Mi
2. Midday
3. Forever Together
4. Gozzip Girl
5. Pure Clan

This is another event where the defending champion will loom large. Forever Together has still never lost a two turn Turf race. It's going to be a tough thing for her competition to overcome. But the one thing that has me rating her a bit lower at this stage is the fact that she has not been as dominant this year and that even at the height of her powers she never had to deal with a first class European. Horses like Caribbean Sunset have challenged her this year and that form does not look great.

Dar Re Mi is a first class European and might well be on her way to North America. She suffered a somewhat dubious DQ in her last race but if you consider the result as it should have been, a win for her, then she'd be 4-3-1-0 on the year with three straight G-1 wins. Her only loss came in her debut by a short head. Dar Re Mi has accounted for Sariska and Stacelita, the two sophomore fillies that looked like potential superstars. Her win over Stacelita was taken from her but I'm more concerned about the level of talent she showed to hit the line first. There is no question that she was the better horse. Dar Re Mi handles any ground and is an extremely tough horse. John Gosden had success shipping to Santa Anita last year and he could as well this year.

I also like the Henry Cecil trained Midday. She has really been coming into her own over the last few months. I think she is better on firm ground although she hasn't had much firm ground of late. The Juddmonte farms are normally supporters of the Breeders' Cup so I expect that this filly will be pointed to Santa Anita after perhaps one more race in Europe.

Gozzip Girl suffered a pretty bad reverse in the Garden City stakes this past weekend but I still believe that she has the talent to be competitive here. Being steadied repeatedly then nearly going down on the first turn is enough of an excuse for me. I also think that ultimately her best races will be run on firm ground. Watch for her in her form recovery mission in either the Flower Bowl or QE II at Keeneland. I'd much prefer the Flower Bowl as a prep because I think the timing is far better but the lure of facing only fillies her own age may be too great.

It seems like Pure Clan's season hasn't really gotten off the ground yet but she's still a good horse. She might require a bit of pace to be effective but it's not unreasonable to think that she could get a pace on Breeders' Cup day. I think the Female turf routers in North America are kind of weak this year aside from Forever Together. She's as likely as anyone to get a piece.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1. Ventura
2. Informed Decision
3. Carlsbad
4. Indian Blessing
5. Game Face

I look at this race and I can't help but choke on a bit of chalk dust. None of my top 5 fillies would be longshots but even still I felt like I was really reaching to come up with 5 horses for this race. Indian Blessing has been an admirable horse for years now but 7f and synthetics have never been her best game. It's hard to envision a scenario where she beats last year's winner Ventura.

Game Face ran a good race at Presque Isle and that should be enough to book her Santa Anita ticket but can she really beat Informed Decision who has handled her so easily twice? It's a real stretch but Game Face is still one that could hit the frame.

Carlsbad is a legitimate threat to the big two in this race because she is the speed of the speed. I think she can out foot Indian Blessing and she can certainly run big races when she gets in front. She is not yet nominated but I think connections will want to take that shot with her. She's a win machine and she deserves a chance to compete with the best at her best distance and surface.

I have Ventura over Informed Decision but it's a really close call. Not much separated them at Keeneland when they met and there will likely be little to find at Santa Anita for the rematch. What I like about Ventura is actually her lighter campaign. Frankel has been very choosy with her this year and she's likely to run in the Woodbine mile then go straight to Santa Anita to prepare for the Sprint. Informed Decision has not exactly been running every other weekend but she has had significantly more racing over the summer and may not be quite as fresh. She is also not a Californian and that might play into it. In the past I thought Informed Decision had the advantage because of her tactical speed but I think those other factors outweigh the tactical speed issue. This should be a hotly contested race and a great event to watch.

Juvenile Fillies
1. Beautician
2. Mi Sueno
3. She Be Wild
4. Blind Luck
5. Midst

Anyone that sees this race clearly is encouraged to drop me a line. I certainly had a very difficult time figuring out who to put on top. Mi Sueno is the logical choice. She's regally bred, based in California and is now a multiple stakes winner. But something about her has me less than convinced. She's not that fast at present and I do wonder if the best fillies are out West. It is a good sign that she's winning without having totally figured it out yet. Her trainer must have had quite a scare last time as she looked beaten in the stretch but it turns out that she just hadn't decided to run yet. Once she picked it up she was able to score a bit easily but stunts like that have to be corrected. Good horses won't give you multiple chances to catch them.

Hot Dixie Chick looks like a glaring omission but I consider her highly unlikely to participate. The Jackson/Asmussen team are not going to send many horses to California. They have already made noises about just running her in the Frizette if anywhere else at all. In her absence I decided to go with Beautician as my #1. There is something Ashado-esque about this filly as a juvenile. She had a sparkling maiden then got crushed by Hot Dixie Chick. The rematch had the same result but I thought that Beautician looked much better than she had in the Schuylerville. She doesn't have the same quick move as the Dixie Chick but she chased her hard all the way to the line without being asked all that hard. It looked to me like a great stepping stone to a two turn race. McPeek is good with juveniles and you can almost guarantee that she'll go on synthetics next in Keeneland's Alcibiades. I think Beautician has a big future.

She Be Wild is a pint size conundrum from the Mid-West. Trained by Wayne Catalano she has done nothing wrong and has been extremely impressive. But is she that fast? How good was her competition? With talk of her training up to the Juvenile Fillies will she be a good bet without any two turn experience. It's too early to answer all of those questions. For now we simply respect what she's shown.

Blind Luck is a filly trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who looked fantastic in her debut then followed that up with a clunk up second behind Mi Sueno at Del Mar. Her second race was not nearly as good as her first but horses often regress off a big maiden score. To finish that closely to Mi Sueno while looking less than spectacular is a notable feat and if she continues to improve she should be a main contender in the Oak Leaf and Juvenile Fillies.

Midst is a Canadian based horse that I've been waiting on for a while. She earned a 90 Beyer in June at Woodbine but hasn't made it to the track since. That was a huge figure for Polytrack at that time of year. She was sent to Saratoga but never got in a start there so there could be some fitness issues. I'm excited about her as a talent though and she still has plenty of time to get another start in before the Breeders' Cup.

Mile After Mile

2009-09-15T12:52:00.003-06:00

I have long viewed the Woodbine Mile as one of the key prep races for my favorite race, the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Since its inception in 1997, 30 runners have gone from the Woodbine Mile to the Breeders' Cup Mile and have compiled a record of 30-2-4-2. It's not exactly a great record but the winners of the Woodbine Mile have hit the BC superfecta every time they've run in the Breeders' Cup Mile aside from 1999 where Quiet Resolve failed badly.

Once again this year we've got a very strong lineup for the Woodbine Mile with last year's exacta of Rahy's Attorney and Ventura returning to face Bribon, Jungle Wave, Ferneley and many more.

As you're watching the Woodbine Mile you'll be no doubt doing so with one eye on the future. After all a bunch of live Breeders' Cup horses have come out of this race. Here are some statistical factors for the Breeders' Cup Mile that might help you hone your search even further after the results of the Woodbine Mile have been digested.

Fresh horses usually outperform. I'm not looking for horses who are coming into the BC Mile directly off a layoff but I am looking for horses who have had a layoff within the last 3 running lines. Horses who didn't went 66-0-4-5 in the BC. Especially oppose those who have not had a recent layoff and have achieved 3 increasing Beyer Speed Figures. They have gone 14-0-0-1 and many of them were well respected.

Highest Last Beyer Figure is not really a positive. Since 1996 the horse with the highest last Turf BSF in the BC Mile have gone 16-1-1-2. There were three occasions where two horses shared the highest last BSF. It is the poorest record by last highest BSF holders for all the BC races.

Prefer horses who did not run at Del Mar or Saratoga. Since Lure in 1993 only Artie Schiller and Da Hoss in 1996 have managed to win the Mile after having run at Saratoga or Del Mar in the same season. Saratoga and Del Mar runners have gone a combined 2 for 82 in the Mile from 1996 to the present. It would seem that most of the Mile winners are actually on vacation during those summer months.

Weekend Review

2009-09-14T12:53:00.002-06:00

Overview: I was rather shocked to see Gozzip Girl beaten in the Garden City but after seeing her almost go down around the first turn I'm just happy she made it back in one piece. It seemed like she was simply going much faster than her rivals but there was no seam to allow her to do so. It could have been extremely messy. She did not run all that well in the final reckoning but I'll give her another shot for sure. Swift Temper seems more like a blue collar horse to me. She is never supposed to run quite as well as she does but I think she's a horse I can really cheer for. It will be interesting to see her back on synthetics in the Spinster. Informed Decision is all class as always and I thought Game Face was visually good enough to give synthetics another try. She missed hitting the board but she did have a bit of a tough trip. I think she would have done better with a more courageous ride. Prado seemed to be waiting for the field to magically collapse into his lap. Game Face would have been better served by attacking the pace setters on the far turn because she's not a horse that accelerates all that quickly. It was a fairly light week of stakes action despite the fact that there was a pair of G-1's. Nobody really knocked the lights out this week in stakes company.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Rachel Alexandra has built a lead that is practically unassailable but mathematically she's not free and clear yet. Conceivably horses like Einstein, Gio Ponti or maybe even Summer Bird could match her points tally but from a practical and realistic standpoint it's quite unlikely. Rachel Alexandra is just the second horse to break the 400 point mark in a single season. Curlin is still the single season TCR record holder with 442.35 in 2007. These records are only kept from 1999 to the present. Swift Temper is shaping up as one of the surprises of the season. When a horse has that many "flukes" in a row one begins to think that she might actually be that good. She holds the lead in the Main Track Older Female division at present but she'll probably need another big race win or two to stay there.

Power Rankings: Informed Decision proved once again that she's peerless on the synthetic surfaces. Diamondrella, Game Face and Flashing were all up against it once Informed Decision set for home. Kudos to John Sheppard for keeping her on form all year long. Seventh Street missed a chance to claim the top Power Ranking for Main Track Older Females but that result seems just about right. Although she has been winning I get the feeling that she's not true championship class.

Performance of the Week: The horse I was most impressed with this week was Girolamo. He was a highly touted horse after a sparkling 2yo debut at Saratoga last summer but he failed to follow up that effort with any form of not. Godolphin took him to Dubai and he was only put back to the races a few weeks ago at Saratoga where he was again impressive. This weekend he stayed in allowance company but he was facing some pretty good horses for the class level. This performance suggests that he's done with allowance horses. He tracked the pace for the first 5f but moved very easily to the front without being seriously asked. Garcia shook him up a bit in the lane and he opened up willingly. You get the impression that he's capable of much more and Godolphin really is having a very hot run at the moment. Girolamo is probably not developed enough to be in a Breeders' Cup race but look for him in a graded stakes race next time out. His star is definitely on the rise.

Race of the Week: I really liked the match up in the Palomar. Lethal Heat coming off 11 days rest against males to face Gotta Have Her, Carribean Sunset and Wild Promises. I admit that I was cheering for Lethal Heat and was a bit disappointed when Gotta Have Her went past but I thought the top two put on a pretty good show. Carribean Sunset did not really live up to expectations in third but she may not prefer the hard California surfaces.

Flop of the Week: After beating Forever Together it seemed logical to respect Diamondrella greatly. She had never been on synthetics but her closing style and turf proficiency suggested that it would be no problem. It turned out to be a pretty big problem indeed. Diamondrella never really got going in the Presque Ilse Masters and that most assuredly ends her chances of being seen in a main track BC race. The Turf Sprint or the Mile would seem like the only Breeders' Cup hopes for Diamondrella now but it's more likely that she just won't go to California at all.

Tip o'the Cap: I reserve this little spot to say at least one nice thing about racing every week. This week I'm tipping my cap to HRTV's program Pursuit of the Cup. I love the build up to the Breeders' Cup and this show only fuels the fire. I can't watch HRTV in my region but both the Bloodhorse and Breederscup.com carry this show on their websites. It's worth checking out. Much of the advice they give about specific horses chances in the BC is useful and I simply like the way they present the show. Good job to the Pursuit of the Cup cast!

KC Handicapping: It was not the best week for me. I did feel a small sense of satisfaction when Keep the Peace failed to live up to expectations once again. But that joy quickly faded when my pick, Fearless Leader, couldn't keep up to the winner either. It was a bad result for my speed ratings. They missed out on both the top pair. Gozzip Girl's result seemed more like bad luck to me while Diamondrella just did not handle the surface while the favorite predictably did. The results tallied below also include my selections from Alabama weekend. Milwaukee Appeal was indeed better than the Americans but it was the other Canadian she couldn't handle. Careless Jewel is looking monstrous right now.

Weekly Record: 5(5)-0-1-1 (-$10.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 800(453)-138-125-102 (-$166.50 -10.41% ROI)

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-09-11T11:00:00.002-06:00

Endine Stakes
Keep the Peace is the obvious choice because of the class drop down. Any filly sprint looks easier without Game Face, or any Graded Stakes winner for that matter but the reason I like this race is that Keep the Peace has not been a winner in her career. She has dropped to classes lower than this in the past and she generally finds ways to get beaten. In her last 9 dirt sprints she has hit the board every time but has managed just one measly allowance win. I'm hoping the second best mentality stays with her here. I'm looking to play against her with the top two KSR rated horses. Sunday Geisha has the speed to pull this off if she can get back to the form she showed at Philly park in the spring. The worrying thing for me is that it seems like her only good races have been at Philly Park. Fearless Leader may be the second rated horse but she's the best qualified to pull off the upset. She's got a great record at Delaware and solid credentials at the distance. She can stalk the pace of Keep the Peace, Bold Union and Sunday Geisha and hopefully have a leg up tactically on that group. She just got run down in her last but she did that while coming off a layoff. She has been much sharper in the mornings lately and she looks like a prime play.

Fearless Leader

Presque Ilse Downs Masters Stakes
You're not going to find a better field of female sprinters outside the Breeders' Cup. This race looks every bit as tough as the Ballerina. A lot of trainers like Presque Ilse because they say horses come out the races there fitter. Handicappers have caught on as well and many last time Presque Ilse horses are getting bet. This is a good spot to prep for the BC Filly and Mare Sprint because you'll know very quickly if you belong. Informed Decision has never lost a race on synthetic and she is the deserving favorite. I don't view her as beatable from the standpoint that she'll run worse than expected. I think the only way she loses this race is if one of her rivals proves to be an utterly brilliant horse. Game Face I do not wholly trust. I'd like her a lot more on the dirt but her speedy style does not visually appear to be a good mesh with the surface. Diamondrella is really the reason I wanted to take a close look at this race. She is unbelievable in one turn turf races. Ventura successfully made the transition to synthetics and I'm hoping that Diamondrella does too. I think she has a slight advantage over Informed Decision because I think she closes harder than the Sheppard horse and I think less than 7f is better for her than the favorite. A bomb worth using underneath is Sweet Lorena. She loves the track and has been earning solid figures over it as well. I think she's the horse that Diamondrella and Informed Decision have to be worried about because she has a tactical speed advantage. It should be a very interesting contest.

Diamondrella

Garden City Stakes
There are few horses that I have more faith in than Gozzip Girl. Maram should be a good test but if Gozzip Girl is as good as I think she is then there is no point in trying to get interesting. Gozzip Girl should win this race and continue her roll to the Breeders' Cup and a meeting with Forever Together. I think the rest are looking at second.

Gozzip Girl

Breeders' Cup Top 5

2009-09-10T08:23:00.009-06:00

Vacations are a wonderful thing but for me they represent a complete lack of structure or routine in my days and consequently I don't get any of my usual stuff done like writing on this blog. My most recent vacation has caused me to seriously drop the ball as far as my Breeders' Cup top 10 lists go so I'm not even going to try and pick up where I left off. From now until two weeks before the Breeders' Cup I'm going to try and update top 5 lists for all the major Breeders' Cup races. I'll rotate between the races for males one week and females the next. I'm going with a top 5 because in some cases there will hardly be more than 10 horses in the race. A top 10 is of little value.

So without further ado here is my top 5 for the major male races on BC day. One caveat is that I rank these horses not on past accomplishments but on my feeling of their chances on BC day. That includes my interpretation of the likelihood of them showing up as well.

September 10th

Classic
1. Rail Trip
2. Rip Van Winkle
3. Mastercraftsman
4. Einstein
5. Parading

Three of my top 5 are coming out of the Pacific Classic and none of them were the winners. Richard's Kid could easily be Baffert's latest version of River Keen who came on strong with a late flourish towards the Breeders' Cup but I'm sticking with the class of the race. Rail Trip is still the best synthetic horse in the nation in my mind. I thought he had a bit of a rough trip in the Pacific Classic and he would have been much better suited to a nice stalking trip just outside the leaders like he got at Hollywood. I don't mind the slight regression here he still has all the tools to capture the big one.

Europeans will tough in the Classic and I think Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman will be the best of the Europeans that tackle the Classic. Sea the Stars is unlikely to come in my opinion. Rip Van Winkle has good cruising speed and a monster turn of foot. His class is unquestioned and he's got a nice layoff in the middle of his campaign even if it is injury enforced. I'd rather have him take time to recover from a minor foot issue and be fresh for the Classic than run 3 races over the summer and be past his best for the Classic.

Mastercraftsman is a bit more of a grinder like his sire Giant's Causeway but he's got class and I consider him slightly more likely to handle the surface than Rip Van Winkle. He's a more speedy type than his stablemate, he would likely be looking for the same type of trip as Rail Trip. He's a very dangerous horse.

Einstein is as classy as they come. I'm not sure what his preparation will look like but likely he'll go in the Goodwood. He doesn't need to win that one to be a main contenders for the Classic. He has run twice on synthetics and he's been 1st and 2nd earning Beyer's of 107 and 103. That's solid no matter how old he is. I like him far better on the main track than on the grass. He doesn't seem to be as quick as he once was so the main track is a better fit. You'll be hard pressed to find horses with consistently better figures on synthetic than him.

Parading is a bit of an odd ball choice ahead of Summer Bird or Mine that Bird or Macho Again or even Quality Road. But Parading has some good form and deserves a bit of a break. He has run 3 times on synthetics and if you just look at the results he was 1st in a G-3 then 4 and 5th in G-1's. Hardly championship form but I'm looking a bit deeper. He was unbelievable at Keeneland in the Ben Ali. That was an awesome performance. Next time he ran on synthetics he came undone because of the filly Life Is Sweet. Connections said he was all studdish and didn't have his mind on the task at hand. He still ran an okay 5th. In the Pacific Classic he ran a good race relative to Rail Trip and Einstein while giving away ground to both of them because of his wider trip. I rate both of those highly and Parading unlike Richards Kid has some other good races in his locker to suggest that he could duplicate this form.

Turf
1. Fame And Glory
2. Conduit
3. Tartan Bearer
4. Gio Ponti
5. Kite Wood

I really hope Fame And Glory comes over for this race because I think it would give us some perspective on just how good Sea The Stars is. Fame And Glory is a special horse in his own right and I don't think it's stretching to say that he is as good as High Chaparral. Without Sea The Stars he'd have a most impressive record. Conduit is classy and of course we already know he handles the course but he's not in the same class as Fame And Glory who would be the banker of the day if he shows.

Conduit and Tartan Bearer could both be in this race while I believe that Ask, the third of the Stoute trio, is more likely for a race like the Canadian International. Conduit obviously has the credentials to win and his most recent start in the King George suggests that he is indeed better than Tartan Bearer but both horses have bags of class and will be a major danger.

Connections are playing the wait and see game but I think that Gio Ponti will ultimately end up in this race. The Joe Hirsch at Belmont is his next outing and that it more or less a test for the Turf. I expect him to win that one and so his connections will likely take the next logical step and go for the Turf. His synthetic form is just too shaky. I don't think they'll want to risk taking him off the grass when they might win a championship race with him. I still think he could beat all comers in the Mile but that seems like a most unlikely race for him now. In the Turf he'll be the top American but his hands will be full because of the class of the likely imports.

I've added Godolphin's Kite Wood perhaps a bit prematurely but I really expect him to give a good account of himself in the St. Leger this weekend that that will thrust him into the thinking of many people. Red Rocks and Conduit both took similar paths to BC glory and Kite Wood looks at least as good as those two were at the same point in their careers. I prefer Kite Wood to the french pair of Vision d'Etat and Cavalryman because I think he's more likely to ship and more likely to handle the ground.

Mile
1. Goldikova
2. Bribon
3. Delegator
4. Ghanaati
5. Rahy's Attorney

Goldikova has gotten better and that's a pretty scary thing. We are looking at a repeat of the mighty Miesque here. When Six Perfections came back for a second round she did look like she had lost half a step. Goldikova seems to have found a step or two. It'll take a special performance to deny her.

Bribon may just be that wild card capable of a special performance. We know he can sure throw it down on the main track. He has run some brilliant races and a mile is his best distance. Bribon recently turned to the Turf at Saratoga and he was quite impressive. It was a near graded stakes quality field and he crushed them. The Woodbine Mile will be next and he will either not be able to stay with the best milers out there or the cat will get out of the bag and he could go into the Mile as the clear second choice.

Godolphin recently purchased Delegator and he provided a good return on investment when taking the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. Godolphin clearly wanted this horse for the Mile because he's pretty darn good and he loves firm ground. I'm not sure if he's up to beating Goldikova but he's still a 3yo and improvement is surely possible.

Ghanaati is the latest in a long line of very good 3yo fillies that could have a big say in the Mile. She was a bit outclassed by Rip Van Winkle but I think she'll come on for the effort and be at her best this fall. Her form looks pretty good and the ground should not be a problem either.

Rahy's Attorney had a bit of a setback in the 11f Sky Classic Stakes but I think it's a blessing in disguise. It'll get connections to forget the ridiculous notion they had or making him into something other than a miler. He and Bribon should put on a good show in the Woodbine Mile later this month. Both horses have the quality to win a race like the BC Mile. Rahy may be a bit better at one turn than he is at two but he'll still have a massive shot in the Mile.

Sprint
1. Fatal Bullet
2. Zensational
3. Munnings
4. Ready's Echo
5. Jungle Wave

It seems crazy to have any horse but Zensational atop the list especially since I have a question about Fatal Bullet's fitness but I do actually believe that Fatal Bullet is the better horse. So if he gets to the Sprint healthy I'll be looking to play him against the Baffert superstar. The trouble with Fatal Bullet is that he hasn't worked in a while. I'll want to see him back on the tab soon.

It's much harder to build a case against Zensational than it is to build a case for him. No other horse in California made my list because it's hard to imagine any of them ever beating him. He's just better than all those horses he's facing. If he's going to lose I imagine it will be to horses he hasn't yet faced.

The Munnings stock has taken a bit of a hit from the days when it seemed like he could not lose. Back to back third place finishes in the slop will do that but he's still got that flashy quality and I think he'll like synthetics just fine in a race where the distance is a better fit.

Ready's Echo and Jungle Wave are oddball horses but when you have such dominating forces like Fatal Bullet, Zensational and Munnings why not take a shot with some lesser knowns. Ready's Echo has always been a solid horse but connections have given him a varied campaign. He seems to be a fine horse on all three surfaces from sprints to a mile and a half but when I look at him I see a late running sprinter who also happens to like synthetic race tracks. He is an explosive late runner and if things fall apart he could be the one picking up the pieces.

Jungle Wave is a Canadian based sprinter who also happens to be very good on turf as well as synthetics. Fatal Bullet was too much for him when they met earlier this year but Jungle Wave has gone from strength to strength since then and I think he could give just about anyone a real run for their money. If this horse makes it to the Sprint he'd likely be a massive price but remember the name and don't discount him.

Juvenile
1. Sidney's Candy
2. Lookin At Lucky
3. Dublin
4. Aspire
5. Pulsion

It's safe to say that this list will likely change the most over the next two months. It really is hard to even tell where to go but I ended up on Sidney's Candy. He's only race twice and he's never been in stakes company but he does have a few things going for him. He owns the best synthetic speed figure for a 2yo this year and it may actually be the best synthetic figure ever given to a 2yo. I'd have to check up on that but the 99 he got is an excellent figure. He lost his debut to the Baffert horse Tiny Woods by just a neck then he came back to romp in fine style. John Sadler should bring up this son of Candy Ride in the right way.

Lookin At Lucky is the early division leader courtesy of a pair of synthetic stakes wins as well as the ringing endorsement of Bob Baffert who happens to know a thing or two about the subject. He isn't my #1 for one reason only. He has not yet shown that he's terribly fast, he seems to go just as fast as he needs to which means he could be some kind of horse but it's possible that others in this crop will be more brilliant.

I haven't liked a Lukas juvenile in a pretty long time but the one thing about Lukas is that once he gets a horse to this level it often means that they're legitimately good. He has a reputation of pushing his young horses so that only the strong survive. Most of his horses in recent years haven't been good enough to flourish in the Lukas program but Dublin is. There is a long way to go with this horse but I like the fact that Lukas is seriously thinking about a synthetic prep for him. He's also a good looking G-1 winner who ought to stretch out well.

I thought Aspire was kind of unlucky behind Dublin in the Hopeful and that the two horses have similar ability. Aspire is a Kenneally horse owned by the Wests so it's almost a sure thing that he'll go to Keeneland for the Breeders' Futurity. That race ought to set him up perfectly for a tilt at the juvenile.

Pulsion is kind of a stab in the dark. He's a Biancone trained son of Include who really came alive in his first two turn effort at Del Mar on Sept 5th. Include is not known as a sire of precocious horses but Biancone is very good with 2yo's. His pedigree suggests distance and so far I'd have to say that I have not seen a more impressive two turn race by a juvenile this year.

Saratoga Diary - The End Of A Long Road

2009-09-09T09:14:00.002-06:00

What an incredible 36 days of racing. Who would have ever thought that Linda Rice could pull off the upset and win the training title over guys like Pletcher, Mott, Asmussen and McLaughlin. Turf sprints have become a bigger and bigger part of NYRA's daily diet and Rice is simply amazing in those races but she also got great performances from a limited number of runners. Pletcher had 59 more starters and 1 less winner. I think the real hole in the current Todd squad is that he doesn't seem to have any horses than can win stakes races. He only took 3 stakes races in the entire meet. That used to be an average Saturday afternoon for Todd.

The Asmussen/Jackson fillies are definitely the story of the meet for me. Rachel Alexandra is the best Female racehorse of the modern era. Better than Ruffian, better than Personal Ensign and even better than Twilight Tear. This is greatness being played out right before our eyes. It's sad to think that it might be her last race of the year but what a race it was. Macho Again is no slouch on his best day but the most impressive part of her performance was not that she beat Macho Again specifically it was that she handled the tag team pressure. These old guys weren't about to give her an easy ride and she was pushed very hard in the early stages. At about the 1/8th pole I mentioned to my wife that I think they got her but Rachel just would not give up. That performance definitely put her over the top. She's the best ever.

Hot Dixie Chick would normally be a huge story for the Spa meet. A pair of scintillating open length wins in Graded Stakes. Three of the top four Beyers earned by 2yo's this year and she was even impressive while overcoming the supposed adversity of the inside post position. Saratoga is often said to be about the juveniles and Hot Dixie Chick was the finest juvenile in action this summer at the Spa.

The male 2yo's by comparison were a bit disappointing. I have a hard time coming up with the answer to the question "Who was the best male 2yo at the Spa?" Maybe it was Dublin, maybe it was Aspire, D'Funnybone looked pretty good as did Discreetly Mine but no one really stamped themselves as the must watch horse of the fall. I have no doubt that many of these juveniles will have a major impact in future stakes races but none of them seem to be of extraordinary quality.

From a handicapping perspective the meet was a disaster. Having 80 winners on top does represent an improvement over 2008 and 2007 but I still lost about 17%. It took me a long time to gain any traction in the meet. The one bright point for me was the development of the Kennedy Speed Rating. It's far from infallible but the ratings did help me get back on track and nail a few winners.

My spot plays showed a -44.11% return. My apologies if anyone was actually looking at this space for some decent advice. Despite the lure of big profits from exacta's and trifecta's I actually would have lost much less if I had simply bet each of my picks to win. That's usually the way of it with my handicapping and wagering. This meet just goes to show that I'm not that great at either. Still it's an immensely enjoyable exercise and challenge always is to get better.

Saratoga Diary - Sept 5th

2009-09-05T07:30:00.005-06:00

Friday was not exactly the type of day I was looking for to get me back in the swing. In truth it was one of my worst days of the entire meet. Nine races and the winner was only a part of my top three selections three times. I completely blanked on all my exacta's and trifecta's as well.

Linda Rice is proving that she isn't just throwing horses to the wind and hoping something sticks. She took two more wins yesterday to Pletcher's one. By my count that locks them up with 18 a piece. Alan Garcia also had 4 winners which puts him back in the hunt against Dominguez for the riding title. These battles for the human titles have made the meet all the more interesting even without the fantastic racing we've been treated to.

Spot Plays for September 5th

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$12
$1 trifecta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$24

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sean Avery/Mesa Sunrise/Hamazing Destiny =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Peace Chant/Ready's Echo/Kodiak Kowboy =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - It's a Bird/Rachel Alexandra/Bullsbay =$6

Wagered - $54
Meet Balance = -$683.50 (-54.94%)

This whole final week has been very tough and today may be the hardest one yet. It seems like there aren't any clear picks aside from Rachel Alexandra and I'm actually choosing to go against her to see if I can get a price.

Race #4 looks like my play of the day spot. I really really like Karakorum Fugitive and I'm hoping that I have the right horses in the mix along with her. I'm also hoping that Mike Hushion continues his hot streak with Sean Avery. Hushion has quietly been one of the best trainers at the Spa this summer and his horses seem to be holding form very well. Sean Avery was impressive a few weeks ago so I'm hoping he continues that today. His race is a wide open affair though so it'll be tough.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the racing today. It could be the day where we witness the confirmation of the best modern female America has ever seen.

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-09-04T15:20:00.003-06:00

Forego Stakes
This is an extremely tough race with a full 12 entrants. Often you can get a bit of an advantage in races like this by going for course or distance specialists but there is no chance of that this time. Eight horses have won at the distance and another six have won over the course. You could pretty much end up on anyone and I wouldn't laugh. I think the pace will be pretty hot since there are so many speed horses and with such a full field jockeys will be anxious to get a good position. I'll look to get a bit of a price on a pair that could come from off the pace. The first is Peace Chant. His record looks spotty but if you remove the synthetic and turf races from his record he is 6-4-1-0 with three triple digit Beyers. He is definitely fast enough to win the race and the conditions suit him perfectly. I also like Ready's Echo, his record is somewhat obscured by routes and surfaces switches but when you shake it all down the only sprint he ever lost was that remarkable career debut when he came from another zip code in the final furlong to run second. He likes Saratoga and he's a very dangerous closing sprinter if things set up for him. Don't be surprised if he lights up the board.

Peace Chant
Ready's Echo

Woodward Stakes
When I handicap races I often find myself on the wrong side of some of the most powerful performances of our era. I'm usually looking for a way to beat the stars. I do feel kind of guilty on occasion but for the most part racing's stars laugh off my skepticism and romp in impressive style. The Woodward is a race where I expect Rachel Alexandra to win but I won't be picking her on top just in case the unthinkable happens. If Rachel wins this race, even in less than dominating style, she could legitimately lay claim to being the greatest female of the modern era. However I do think that this race will be tougher than all the rest. I'm going to play It's a Bird against the filly because I think it's a great chance to get 10/1 on a horse that is well above par going two turns. He last race doesn't look great but that was in a one turn race. 9f around two turns is perfect for It's a Bird and Marty Wolfson is very savvy when it comes to placing horses like this. It seems like everywhere she goes Rachel has had to deal with one "bird" or another. This bird is the best of the lot and he should give Rachel all she can handle.

It's a Bird

Pacific Classic
Del Mar's premier event looks just about as good as anything seen at Saratoga. It's a full field that looks pretty well matched. I kind of feel like the favorites could dominate this race and afterwords everyone will talk about how it was so obvious. At the same time the longshots could fill out the major places and that would have to be no great shock either. Not when you have quality horses like Parading and Informed at 10/1 and Misremembered at 12/1. I have a 20-20 statistical profile for this race and I've linked it below. It looks as though Rail Trip is the only perfect qualifier while there are 5 horses all tied for the second ranking. Rail Trip does look scary off the performance at Hollywood. If he goes close to that performance again he'll crush them all. Colonel John has to be respected but I think he's terrible value as the possible morning line favorite. I think Rail Trip is plainly a better horse. I'll use Awesome Gem in the mix beneath Rail Trip just because I think he could suck up into one of those minor places. He has been resurgent of late and he could have one more big effort in him. Einstein has to be heavily respected as well. His fortunes have fallen lately but on synthetics he might get some new life. I'll use Rail Trip on top with Awesome Gem, Colonel John, Einstein and Informed underneath. I respect Parading and I do think he'll improve this time but I just don't have room for him this time.

Rail Trip

Saratoga Diary - Sept 4th

2009-09-04T09:31:00.003-06:00

I'm finally back home and back in the groove. Although I love vacations and the chance to get to the track in person I do find comfort in being at my home base. This is my first post in almost two weeks. It's almost the longest I've ever gone without posting.

While in Toronto I was able to get out to Woodbine to catch Jungle Wave's excellent performance in the Play the King while also watching Travers Day via simulcast. I certainly hope that Jungle Wave's connections have the courage to venture south of the border. He's really in a zone right now and will likely lead the home team along with Rahy's Attorney in the Woodbine Mile.

Getting back to Saratoga, for those of you who may have forgotten I am getting sliced and diced this meet. My spot plays have yielded a -52.66% loss and I've had just 71 winners on top for a -16.41% loss in the public handicapping exercise. The silver lining is that the last two weeks of the meet have actually been positive for me. I'd need the most monstrous final week ever to show a profit for the meet but at least I'm gaining a bit of a foothold.

Saratoga has also been a time when I've been able to test and perfect my new Kennedy Speed Rating. It's not a guarantee of victory but in general the winners wind up being rated fast enough. Just as a little reminder the KSR is simply an average of each horses Beyer's, BRIS Speed and DRF Track Ratings. A rating of 100 or more means that a horse is faster on average at today's conditions than the field average which in my mind makes them a real contender to win.

Here are the KSR ratings for today. Many of the races are wide open with 5 or more contenders. It'll be a tough card but if you're right you should be well rewarded.

Spot Plays for Sept 4th

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Mississippi Hippie/Dogwood Entry/Paddy O'Prado =$6

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Positive Pitch/By M K/Australis Princess =$6

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Biggerbadderbetter/Valtrus/Tiger Woodman =$6

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Weaver Entry/Poppy Day/Adriatic Magic =$6

Race #7
$1 exacta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$12
$1 trifecta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$24

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$623.50 (-52.66%)

I do see some chances to get some prices in several events today. It may be a tough day to get winners on top but some nice exacta's might be on the cards.

My longshot play of the day is Biggerbadderbetter. He is actually rated too slow by the KSR but I still like him to pull off an upset at a big price. The mile should suit him very well. I actually thought that he was a bit unlucky against Tahoe Warrior last time. His second race off the layoff ought to be better.

I'm hoping for a big day for Ken McPeek as I'm using My Baby Baby as a key in the feature as well. Belle Allure will be really tough and I'm not sure that I like the negative form reference from Cocoa Beach but My Baby Baby should win this race if she runs back to that form.

Good luck to everyone today!

Vacation

2009-08-26T07:19:00.001-06:00

I case you're wondering where on earth I've been I've headed back to Toronto for a vacation and family wedding. Unfortunately it makes serious handicapping and updating this blog far more challenging. I'll continue to try and update my Saratoga Selections on the sidebar but other wise all the other normal features of this blog will resume next Thursday.

Enjoy Travers week everyone. I'll be enjoying the Travers from the Woodbine grandstand!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 22-23

2009-08-22T07:44:00.003-06:00

Weekends are habitually rushed for me and this one is even worse with vacation preparations. I won't be posting the KSR's over the weekend because in order to have them accurate you have to wait until the scratches are released and I'm writing this an hour before scratches are due. But as always the preliminary ratings are heavily influencing my plays.

Spot Plays for Aug 22

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Happy Bull/Mannington/Saratoga Russell =$6
$1 trifecta box - Happy Bull/Mannington/Saratoga Russell =$12

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Cane Candy/Squid Ink/Cat Day =$6

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Winslow Homer/On Vacation/Remittance =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Ryvit/Super Saver/Gathering Cloud =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Milwaukee Appeal/Careless Jewel/Wynning Ride =$6
$10 W - Milwaukee Appeal =$10

Wagered - $52

Spot Plays for Aug 23

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Pearl of Valor/Who Is Lady/Lorraine In Spain/Musical Splendor =$12
$1 trifecta box - Pearl of Valor/Who Is Lady/Lorraine In Spain/Musical Splendor =$24

Wagered - $36

Saratoga Diary - Aug 21

2009-08-21T09:42:00.005-06:00

While I failed to have many winners on top yesterday I did manage to hit all three exacta's that I played. My horses also ran 1-2-4 in the only trifecta I played on the day. Things worked out pretty well. Many of the picks were just combination's of the obvious but it's still nice to enjoy some success. Success has been a rare thing in these parts during Saratoga.

George Weaver went on an unbelievable run of three straight winners. He's one to watch in the second half. For some reason I basically never catch any of his winners. I guess his style and mine don't line up at all.

If anyone was checking out the Kennedy Speed Ratings yesterday they could have put you onto 2 winners in 3 races. Also two exacta's and a winning trifecta in those same races. It was mostly chalk but that's just the kind of day it was. Some horses ran surprising races but all in all none of the winners were totally off the wall horses.

Spot Plays for Aug 21

Race #1
$10 W - Sapphire Sky =$10

Race #2
$1 exacta box - The Mayor/Jazz Hands/Orrsville =$6

Race #3
$10 W - China =$10

Race #6
$2 exacta box - Genuine Charm/Awesome Maria/Sing My Song =$12

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Ice Road/Blackberry Road/Luv Gov =$6

Wagered - $44
Meet Balance = -$538.70 (-52.40%)

I went back to some win bets despite my recent success with exacta's. I think Sapphire Sky was great value when Doremifasollatido was still in the race, now that she's out I think she's a possible standout.

I also put some money down on the nose of China. I really think this horse has something special and I would have bet him in the Saratoga Special yesterday. His connections likely saved me some money by scratching because the Dutrow horse ran out of this world. Maybe Pletcher knew something. At any rate he looks like the winner here.

Not much to say about the two $1 exacta boxes I'm playing but the 6th looks like a great opportunity. McLaughlin is an automatic with second timers and his Genuine Charm fits the profile perfectly. Dynazaper has the look of a good one and Awesome Maria is the deserving chalk. I like my chances in that one because of the strong McLaughlin angle.

EDIT: Dynazaper is out so I'm replacing her with Sing My Song

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-08-21T08:05:00.002-06:00

Alabama Stakes
I had thought of skipping the picks and analysis segment this weekend because I'm headed out for a bit of a vacation to Toronto this next week. I never like playing races when I'm not around to recap the results but this is an opportunity I've been waiting for since the spring and I can't pass on it. I think very highly of Milwaukee Appeal. She is not your typical Canadian filly. I think she's got the class and talent to run with any filly in North America outside Rachel Alexandra. Careless Jewel, another Canadian shipper, seems to have a massive speed advantage on paper but she got that fig on Delaware's quirky surface. Horses rarely repeat those efforts at Saratoga and this race is quite a bit longer than her last. A robust filly like Milwaukee Appeal will have no trouble with the distance and she should be able to deal easily with the American crowd coming out of the CCAO. That was not a very talented group and you don't have to be much better than ordinary to beat them.

Milwaukee Appeal

Sky Classic Stakes
Gio Ponti is not the only turf horse has undergone a renaissance this year. Canada's version of Gio Ponti is Rahy's Attorney. Always thought of as more of a miler Rahy's Attorney has simply turned into a devastating horse this year. The distance is a concern and normally I find myself going against horses like this. He'll be a fairly short price he should have more pace pressure than last time and he's got to win going 11f. But this time I'm not going to be rooting against the best horse. This time I hope to enjoy him fully. Good horses can step outside the box and do things that inferior horses can't. Rahy's Attorney may not be a horse for the ages but compared to the competition he's facing at Woodbine he might as well be Lure. I think he'll sit off the pace a bit this time and let Marlang dictate proceedings. I don't think Callaghan will be so eager to open on the field like he did last time I think he'll be a bit more patient. Marchfield and Champs Elysees will chase him again but as long as his rider is patient he should stay this distance just fine.

Rahy's Attorney

Saratoga Diary - Aug 20

2009-08-20T09:29:00.004-06:00

I thought that the winner of the feature yesterday was aptly named. Worstcasescenario really was just that. The Adirondack was a complete disaster for both my wagers and the figures upon which I based my plays.

In fact it was quite an embarrassing debut day for the Kennedy Speed Ratings. 9 races calculated and only 5 winners among those deemed "fast enough". It did have 3 winners on top but just failed to break even if you had wagered every horse with a 100+ rating. The value was definitely with the slower horses yesterday. This is the first day of the meet where so many ran above themselves. Still I'll post today's figures in hope that today will be a bit more to form. Only 3 races on this card could be calculated.

Spot Plays for Aug 20th

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Bobbi O./Myrtle Gray/Rogue's Jewel =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$12
$1 trifecta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$24

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Flying Sappho/Dear Contender/Beso Del Sur =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$552.30 (-56.36%)

Ken McPeek has been well off the pace this meet but it is worth noting that he had a hugely impressive winner yesterday in a turf race for maidens. House of Grace romped at 23/1 and Bobbi O. has been a workmate of House of Grace. This horse could be ready to pop as well although likely not at such a generous price.

In the two last turf races of the day I think there is an opportunity to get some prices in the mix. I respect the favorites but I don't think they have to win. Horses like Moon Drop and Justify should be right there in the 8th. In the 10th I think the favorites are very vulnerable. I included Beso Del Sur in the exacta because of the fear of Linda Rice but otherwise I think the tote board could light up in the last.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 19

2009-08-19T09:36:00.005-06:00

Week 3 was not all that kind to me. I had 12 winners on top and still lost money with my spot plays but having said that it was actually my best period of the meet. So essentially I still suck but just not as much. One of the main reasons for my minor improvement has been my intentional development and use of something I call the KSR (Kennedy Speed Rating) I've played around with the concept for for more than a year off and on but after getting killed in claiming race after claiming race where I simply had no idea what to do I decided to knuckle down and refine the ratings to see if they could help a bit.

Starting Monday Aug 3rd I made calculations for every race possible. Not every race can have KSR's applied because the rating is essentially based on the premise of finding the average speed of each entrant at a similar condition that they're facing today. If a horse has never run on the surface or has never run with 2 furlongs of today's distance it's basically impossible to say how they'll do. If a horse achieves a rating of 100.00 or more it is the KSR's suggestion that they are fast enough to win this particular race.

In 13 race days at Saratoga 69 races had the KSR applied to them and 47 times the winner had a rating of 100.00 or more. 11 times the winner was unrated and another 11 times the winner had a rating of 99.99 or less. A flat bet on every horse in those 69 races that had a rating of 100.00 or more would have made you $85.60. It's not the most unbelievable profit margin ever but it does show a profitable correlation.

The KSR is still pretty new so it might need some revision but I've decided to link today's figures here on the blog and we can follow the results as they happen. Hopefully these ratings can help put you and I onto a few winners today.

Spot Plays for Aug 19th

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Miss Fleetfoot/Dressmaker/Sneaky Girl =$6

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$12
$1 trifecta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$24

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Starfish Bay/Thoroughly Holy/Gemswick Park =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Akonite/First to Come Home/Galluscio Entry =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$12
$1 trifecta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$24

Wagered - $90
Meet Balance = -$487.00 (-54.72%)

You may notice that most of the horses I'm using today are well rated by the KSR. There were a lot of playable races today based on those figures. In fact there were likely more races today than any other that I've calculated so I'm going a bit heavy in relation to my stated average of $50 per day.

In Race #5 I'm taking a bit of a risk in that I'm leaving out a lot of really good horses but I just like the race because you have a good looking Pletcher, a good looking Rice and Gemswick Park, a horse that I've always thought very well of. So hot trainers combined with a classy sprinter, it seems like a good deal to me.

The other plays are mostly based off the figures. I'm looking for overall speed to dominate the races and hopefully cash me some tickets.

I think Pletcher will really come to hand in the second half of this meet and he's starting to put in some serious horses. Look for him to win 5 or more races this week.

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Turf

2009-08-18T10:03:00.002-06:00

Turf Top 10 - Aug 18th

1. Fame And Glory (2)
2. Conduit (3)
3. Tartan Bearer (1)
4. Ask (5)
5. Casual Conquest (6)
6. Vision D'Etat (7)
7. Cavalryman (new)
8. Presious Passion (10)
9. Kite Wood (new)
10. Age of Aquarius (new)

Dropped: Soldier of Fortune (4), Bronze Cannon (8), Father Time (9)

The defending champion Conduit has finally gotten back to the place he was last year when he rode his hot form to success at Santa Anita. His race in the King George was fantastic and while I feel that Tartan Bearer would not be disgraced in a rematch it just seems that Conduit has better acceleration. Tartan Bearer would need the race to develop into a true stayers contest and that's unlikely to happen at Santa Anita.

Stoute trio's are all still in the top 5 but I have Aiden O'Brien's Fame And Glory as the best of the lot. He's still improving and he is likely the best of the Ballydoyle group which is no small distinction considering the fact that Mascraftsman and Rip Van Winkle run for the same connections. Sea the Stars has been able to handle all of Ballydoyle's best and brightest but I do think that the horse they'd fear the most in a rematch is Fame and Glory. He looked a shade unlucky at Epsom and at the Curragh for the Irish Derby he was ridiculously dominant. I think Fame And Glory is better than Conduit already and his form may still have more to find.

As has been my policy from the get go I am more of less discounting American chances in this race. Gio Ponti is a fantastic racehorse and a personal favorite of mine but I think the Turf is option 3 or 4 for his connections. The Classic or Mile will be where he ends up. Presious Passion is the only Yankee on the list because he offers something that no one else does. The threat of a runaway is real and the Euro's won't necessarily be tactically prepared to deal with him. Forget his last race, it came on a deep course that was wet. The rock hard Santa Anita turf will help Presious Passion strut his stuff.

Races like the Sword Dancer and Secretariat only further the notion that the American 12f turf horses just aren't any good. For me the question is not whether or not a European will win the Turf it's which European will win the Turf.

Soldier of Fortune is still inactive and holds no big race entries at the moment so I'm going to assume that plans are on hold with him.

Bronze Cannon just went to Russia and suffered a loss, it's not that his race was so poor but that connections felt the need to send him out there. I'm going to assume that the Breeders' Cup is not really on his agenda.

Father Time continues to look like he has some promise but he's not quite developing fast enough for me. A recent third at York today was decent but it was a race he ought to have won I'd rather go with the more progressive 3yo's in Europe like Cavalryman, Kite Wood and Age of Aquarius.

Cavalryman is a longshot to come to Santa Anita since he seems to like soft ground and the Arc is always Fabre's main concern but he's got real talent and is a bit of a stranger to the normal class lines in Europe right now. Much like Conduit was last year, it was hard to tell how good he really was because he hasn't faced any of the limelight horses. Age of Aquarius most recently finished behind him in France and there was enough in that race to suggest that both will be good horses.

I have also added Godolphin's Kite Wood. The distance is definitely no problem there may actually be a concern that the distance is too short. He'll likely be the favorite for the St. Leger and that's a race that has produced many live runners in North America on the cutback. Conduit, Red Rocks, Ballingarry and Phoenix Reach all parlayed St. Leger form into good races on this continent. I consider it to be a key race despite the 14f distance.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 17

2009-08-17T09:23:00.002-06:00

Friday and Saturday we're pretty terrible days at the windows for me. I had just 2 winners on top total and for most of the races I didn't even have the winner among my top 3. The one that really got away was the bomb Eltish Star. She came out second overall in the field with my figures and I debated long and hard about her. I finally decided to go with the safer chalk Classic Moon. Classic Moon ran third and Eltish Star was completely forgotten at the windows.

Sunday was a much better day. I cast my lot with 4 Pletcher horses and he didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped going 4-1-1-1 with those. The one that really hurt was Etincelle who got ignored and went off at 9/1. Etincelle came with a furious rally in the lane to miss by two heads. Another stride or two and it would have been an excellent score.

It was a shame not to catch hold of the Citifest exacta and trifecta but two of my 4 plays for the box scratched out and I wasn't around to compensate for the changes. Hopefully Monday is more like Sunday than Saturday.

Spot Plays for Aug 17th

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Exhi/Successful Score/Indian Council =$6

Race #3
$25 Win - Gayego = $25

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Banker's Buy/Driven by Seattle/Top Lass/Sister's Speed =$12
$1 trifecta box - Banker's Buy/Driven by Seattle/Top Lass/Sister's Speed =$24

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sixthirteen/I've Got Speed/Due Date =$6

Wagered - $73
Meet Balance = -$526.00 (-64.38%)

I'm overspending a bit today because I was so far below budget yesterday courtesy of the scratches. I'm not thrilled with many of the fields today. I know I'm playing 4 different races but they're the only ones I'd really consider today. Most days you're trying to narrow it down to only the plays where you think you have the best chance. Today I'm desperately looking for any good chance I can find.

The feature is a deep race and perhaps it's an error in judgement to leave off both Linda Rice horses but neither of them struck me as particularly strong. Awakino Cat got such a perfect setup last time it's hard to see a repeat of that here.

I think Gayego is a standout in race 3. I know it's not very interesting to play a 3-5 shot but when you're losing money at a near 65% clip solid winners begin to look like real value.

Best of luck to everyone today, it's a very tough card.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 15-16

2009-08-15T05:45:00.002-06:00

I'm going to have to go ahead and combine Saturday and Sunday's diary. The weekend's really pile up these days. It ought to be a great weekend of racing. I sure hope the weather holds through Sunday.

Spot Plays For Aug 15th

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Bulldogger/Brother Bird/Chief Counsel =$6

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Keep Thinking/Strong Commitment/Sean Avery =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Musketier/Grand Couturier/Lauro/Brass Hat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Musketier/Grand Couturier/Lauro/Brass Hat =$24

Wagered - $48

Spot Plays for Aug 16th

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Epicurus/Steve's Kitten/Mott Entry =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Etincelle/Deputy's Citizen/Siren Serennade =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Citifest/Redefined/Elusive Fox/Thunder Minister =$12
$1 trifecta box - Citifest/Redefined/Elusive Fox/Thunder Minister =$24

Wagered - $48

I'm kind of betting on a big weekend for Pletcher, especially on Sunday. I kind of feel like he's really bringing some live horses over the next two days and I want to get a piece of that.

I'd love to say that I fully support Grand Couturier for a third Sword Dancer but I actually think that Musketier will be a very tough horse to beat. Attfield has really brought him along well and I think he's ready to establish himself as top tier.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 14

2009-08-14T10:17:00.002-06:00

Yesterday was my first profitable day of the meet, it only took 12 days...I'm hoping that my next profitable day is not another 12 days from now.

Three winners on top and a trifecta score as well as an exacta. It was just a decent day where things worked out.

Congrats to Linda Rice who has continued her rich vein of form and is now in the lead of the trainers race. Pletcher has a far bigger stable and will likely win the title again just because of volume but Rice is the big story and she is doing the best job with her string right now.

Spot Plays for Friday Aug 14th

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Pendulum/Crystal Moment/Eto'o =$6

Race #8
$10 W - Straight Story =$10
$1 exacta box - Straight Story/Lime Rickey/No Inflation/Courageous Cat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Straight Story/Lime Rickey/No Inflation/Courageous Cat =$24

Wagered - $52
Meet Balance = -$412 (-58.61%)

I didn't have a lot of strong opinions today aside from Straight Story in the 8th. I love this horses chances and I've been waiting eagerly for him to run back. I think he's far and away the best horse and I've committed almost all of my budget today to using him in some way.

I'm interested in the juvenile race as well. I mostly like to play key trainers in juvenile races but this time I'm leaving off a major contender from Pletcher. Drover is a half to Ashado and Sunriver and he's by Storm Cat so he's bred to be a champion but after a series of dirt works they tried him on the grass and he didn't look great in that either. For the most part when you have a royal juvenile like this you start them on the main track unless they absolutely cannot run. I'm hoping Drover takes some money and the exacta with the other 3 logical horses is a bit inflated.

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Ladies Classic

2009-08-13T10:34:00.002-06:00

Ladies Classic Top 10 - Aug 13

1. Zenyatta (1)
2. Acoma (2)
3. Cocoa Beach (4)
4. Seventh Street (6)
5. Music Note (5)
6. Life Is Sweet (7)
7. Ghanaati (8)
8. Again (9)
9. Milwaukee Appeal (10)
10. Miss Isella (new)

Dropped: Rachel Alexandra (3)

This is a tough group to get the order right. Coming up with the 10 most likely winners is not all that hard but the indecision over participation is what's killing me. The obvious and primary difficulty is what to do with Rachel Alexandra. She is the best horse and I think she wins by a street if she runs but we have her owner swearing on the Good Book that she won't go to California.

For me it comes down to whether or not I believe Jess Jackson. I've decided that I do believe he's a stubborn idiot that will pass this race despite Rachel's prior form on synthetics. I think racing will be the poorer for it but that will be the way it is. So Rachel is off my list entirely despite being one of the best fillies of all time.

I wavered quite a bit over who to add on at the bottom of the list. I'm quite partial to Mandella's filly Patricia's Gem but she scratched out of a recent chance to meet Zenyatta so I get the feeling that the main track is only a consideration if Zenyatta isn't around. She could still attempt this race if Zenyatta goes to the Classic but I settled on Miss Isella instead. I've gone against Miss Isella in every single stakes start she's made but that hasn't been a terribly good idea since she's shown really top class form this year. She's even run well away from Churchill which was something I was skeptical about. I think she's just an overall solid filly that is going to give you something to cheer about each time she runs.

Zenyatta nearly lost her place atop this list with that latest effort. I know she closed quickly and the scare was more likely to do with rider error but those were pretty terrible horses she was running down and a repeat of that kind of effort against this kind of horse will surely see her lose. She's still the queen but that race showed some vulnerability that she's never quite displayed before. Bad horses have gotten away with slower paces before with Zenyatta but she always had no trouble getting them.

Good news for this division is that Cocoa Beach is back in form after one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a 1/5 shot. She never ran a step at Belmont but at Saratoga on the grass she looked good again. Visually it was a bit worrying that she had so much trouble dispatching a G-3 type horse but the Beyer figure came back solid and I'm convinced that it was a decent effort and it puts her back on the right track. Cocoa Beach will be a very tough horse to beat for the rest of this year.

I'm not that impressed with Seventh Street, I still think she's not quite as good as her stablemates going two turns but Music Note is taking a while getting back into things and it looks like she is coming back in a sprint race so connections are even a bit leery of her right now. You have to think that a horse with Music Note's record would be looking at two turn races. But she is headed to the Ballerina while Seventh Street, a very capable sprinter, is going to the Personal Ensign at 10f. It just made me wonder how much they really trust Music Note right now so I flip flopped her with her stablemate in the standings. At their best I still feel that Music Note is the better horse.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 13

2009-08-13T08:23:00.002-06:00

I find that when my handicapping has gone south I'm automatically drawn towards discussing things like the weather. So without further ado I'm pleased to report that it's a nice day at Saratoga once again. It's been a pretty unbelievable run of good weather. The Turf races have not been affected since perhaps the third day of the meet.

I'm sure there are plenty of trainers looking to score wins at the Spa in easy off the turf races but that angle is just about closed for now. We're seeing a ton of turf racing packed into every card and the course looks like it's in excellent condition.

Alan Garcia continues to showcase his talent and show people that he can do more than simply ride very live horses for Kiaran McLaughlin. He's simply riding well and Ramon is having a very tough time staying in touch with him despite getting many more mounts. Leparoux and Velasquez are beginning to emerge from the pack as well and these four look like the only ones in serious contention for the title.

Could Linda Rice actually be the champion trainer at the Spa? The easy answer is no but she is well on her way to having her best meet ever. Last year McLaughlin took the title with 17 winners. Rice has 7 winners from 11 race days. With another 25 days to go she could well find herself in the 12-15 range. It won't be enough to deal with a massive stable like Todd Pletcher's but she is turning some heads. Pletcher got off to his usual slow start but has steadily climbed his way all the way to the top without even getting hot. I think he'll walk away with this title easily despite the best efforts of overachievers like Rice.

Spot Plays for Thursday Aug 13th

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Dattt Echo/Capital Adequacy/Happy Week =$12

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Quick to Charm/Willsboro Point/Bullara/Aly's Wheat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Quick to Charm/Willsboro Point/Bullara/Aly's Wheat =$24

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Pletcher Entry/Ready to Party/Smart Seattle =$6

Wagered - $54

I'm going a bit heavier with Race 2's exacta but I feel pretty good about that race. I know I've been cold with the juveniles but I've been cold with everything. I think Dattt Echo is a fabulous win bet for this race and I really like Pletcher and Violette with first timers. This could yield a nice return too since McLaughlin has an expensive Darley horse debuting. I suppose it could win but I like that barn more with second timers.

Race 6 feels like one of those claiming events where anything can happen. I'm just hoping that the fastest horses prevail.

Race 7 is much like Race 2 in that my play is mainly focused on the trainers rather than the horses but I don't have as strong a feeling about it.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 12

2009-08-12T09:36:00.002-06:00

So the third week begins and I'm personally feeling a bit bullish about the week. We don't have an overwhelming number of stakes races on offer like we did in the first two weeks but we still have contentious fields that will prove to be very tricky to decipher.

I've got quite a few price horses on top today but I'm feeling quietly confident that one or two will come in. I think today may feature more than a few false favorites which creates chances for everyone.

We have a unique 2 mile race on the main track in the 4th today. The logical horse Lord Kipling just ran a marathon last week and was terrible. I'm hoping that a crazy horse, New Fandan can shock them all.

I had many horses that I wanted to play in the win spot for today but I had to refrain because realistically playing the win pool has not been a great thing for me. So here are a few of my plays for today.

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Quiet Alice/Beboblues Art/Kevazinga/Kaleigh Rose =$12
$1 trifecta box - Quiet Alice/Beboblues Art/Kevazinga/Kaleigh Rose =$24

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Minnie Punt/Scientist/Uncle T Seven =$6
$1 trifecta box - Minnie Punt/Scientist/Uncle T Seven =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$423.35 (-70.44%)

Despite my poor results thus far I'm going to keep on going after some bigger scores with the exacta's and trifecta's. I'm losing quite a bit so far this meet but one nice trifecta and I'm close to getting back in the game. The main issue is that I just need to start making good choices on which races to play.

I'm looking at a pair of grass races for today because I think they're contentious races and there could be some prices. I actually decided not to take any of those prices in race 9 because the top horses seem to stand above the rest but since the race looks confusing a lot of combinations may be underbet.

The weather looks great and no one should be disadvantaged by the course. Best of luck to everyone playing the Spa today!

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Classic

2009-08-11T09:02:00.002-06:00

Classic Top 10 - Aug 11

1. Rail Trip (1)
2. Rip Van Winkle (new)
3. Mastercraftsman (2)
4. Einstein (4)
5. Zenyatta (3)
6. Quality Road (7)
7. Parading (5)
8. It's a Bird (6)
9. Mine That Bird (8)
10. Sterwins (10)

Dropped: Well Armed (9)

The major changes to this month's Classic list are that Well Armed was dropped because of a horrendous effort in the San Diego and the subsequent revelation of knee chips and the inclusion of Rip Van Winkle.

Sea The Stars looks increasingly likely to pass on the Breeders' Cup but the horses he's defeating keep coming back to look extremely impressive and in Rip Van Winkle Coolmore have another top notch Classic contender to go along with Mastercraftsman. Rip Van Winkle has kind of been the stable underachiever for Ballydoyle this year. He has always had a huge "Hawk Wing like" reputation. Basically his connections thought he could win every big race of the season but it really didn't work out that way for him. He never really showed proper form until running Sea The Stars all the way to the line in the Eclipse. He followed that up with one of the most powerful races of the season in Britain when he took the Sussex. He is due for a bit of a summer break which will help him I think and he ought to get one more race before the Classic. He will be extremely tough. I have him rated over Mastercraftsman at this stage but I think he's shown the capacity for a bit more brilliance.

Mastercraftsman gets a bit of an acid test of his own against Sea The Stars this coming week. He is due to face the superstar in the Juddmonte International at 10f. That should give us a good line on his ability, especially relative to Rip Van Winkle. Both Coolmore horses look like great Classic prospects. This could easily be their year.

Zenyatta moves down the list with a win an Einstein moves just over her with a loss. It seems like flawed logic but Zenyatta was not very good while winning the Clement Hirsch. That kind of form will see her run 6th in the Classic. Einstein meanwhile was racing on the Turf and I think his connections will just decide to target the major synthetic events from here on out.

Quality Road won a 6 1/2f sprint in his comeback but he broke a track record and it just seems like this horse can walk on water. He's a very fast and freaky horse and there might be no limit to what his talent can see him accomplish. The Travers is next and that will tell us a great deal about his ability at the distance.

I know that very few people have noticed but Sterwins continued his very solid campaign with another stakes win on the grass. Sterwins has been fantastic here in Canada this year and looms a threat based on his past form on synthetics. The biggest challenge here will be convincing his connections to take the shot.

Weekend Review

2009-08-11T08:39:00.004-06:00

Overview: The weekend review will be somewhat abbreviated this week because of some personal time constraints. Besides as soon as this day is over most of us will be done with looking back. The news for the coming weekend will be what catches our eye. The Zen masters "yatta" and "sational" continued to do what they do best. Win races. Zenyatta left it oh so late and it was tough to tell if she had gotten there. I know Smith blames himself for this but it only illustrates the problem with closers. It's hard to win races from the back of the pack all the time. Zensational has no such worries. He is easily the best sprinter in California and aside from Fatal Bullet it's hard to find another horse that could really challenge him. Fabulous Strike may be a monster but he's a dirt monster, we already saw how he does on synthetic. It's a shame for Fabulous Strike because the sprint championship really seems to be coming down to him and Zensational. Having the championship race on less than ideal footing puts him at a disadvantage. Gio Ponti was crowned as my official favorite horse late last year and he's given me much to celebrate this year. He just seems to get better and better. He has been winning his races with a late swoop but at Arlington he showed some real stamina after blasting to the front very early. He was completely exposed through the straight to those who had chosen to ride more patiently but he had the stamina to hold off all comers. It was a new dimension and an exciting one for his fans. Take the Points win in the Secretariat had to have the connections of Battle of Hastings thinking twice about their decision to skip. Bullsbay will go down as one of the more forgettable Whitney winners of modern times. He's not a terrible horse but he's typically been a G-3 level runner and the race really lost something with the scratch of Asiatic Boy and the complete no show from Smooth Air.

KC Handicapping: My plays this week focused on using the results of my 20-20 profiles for the Whitney and Arlington Million. The Whitney was flat out embarrassing, it was a totally upside down result according to the profile and it just goes to show you that horse racing is about more than just numbers. Not everything can be quantified and packaged into something simple. Luckily the Arlington Million worked out and spared some blushes. Gio Ponti even paid for the loss on Smooth Air. The $72.20 exacta with Just as Well was a nice touch too. So far a win bet on all 20-20 perfect qualifiers this year has returned +29.72%. It's well below the overall average but at least it's positive.

Weekly Record: 2(2)-1-0-0 ($1.00 +25.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 795(448)-138-124-101 (-$156.50 -9.84% ROI)

Speeding Things Up

2009-08-11T07:56:00.002-06:00

Saratoga continues to be a very tough place to play. I managed just 8 winners in week two after having 13 in week one but I had a heartbreaking 17 second place finishes. If even half of those could have been winners it would have been a much better week for me. Once again my second choices performed much better as they accounted for 16 wins. Had I focused on my second place picks as my primary wagers I'd be up to 31 winners at the meet. But it's not so easy to simply take your second place horses the reason you picked them second is because you think they're not as likely as your primary pick.

My use of the average composite speed rating which I'll now call the Kennedy Speed Rating (KSR) has helped me to get a bit of a clue in the tough claiming events. It has also helped put me on track to some nice wagers. I did not hit any of the 7 trifecta's that I played this past week but I missed several of them by just one placing. I'm definitely going to continue along the same vein this coming week. Just to give you a brief idea of what the KSR is it's simply a combination and average of each horses applicable speed figures. Beyer's, BRISnet Speed Figures and DRF Speed Ratings are used and compared against the field averages to come up with one number. That number is supposed to represent a certain horses speed relative to the rest of the field. If the number is 100.00 or greater I assume the horse is fast enough to win the race. Over this past week I've rated 39 races at Saratoga and 160 horses were apparently "fast enough". A win wager on those 160 horses would have made a $43.90 profit (+13.72%) .

With this angle in my corner I'm basically trying to pick from a basket of about 4 horses per race. I'm hoping that gives me a leg up on some winners. In those 39 races as well the 100+ horses have swept the trifecta 11 times and the exacta 18 times so that's kind of what I've been aiming at with my spot plays. The trick is that with a $50 per day average it's tough to get money down on all the trifecta possibilities on the card. I've been mostly trying to pick out the best ones but it hasn't quite landed for me yet.

Week 2 saw a bunch of nice performances by some of the biggest stars in the game. Fabulous Strike and Elusive Heat looked wonderful as did Bribon in his first turf race for many years. He had not been all that great on Turf during his limited exposure in the past but he sure liked it on the weekend. He earned a nice 103 Beyer for the score and it puts him right in the mix with the best milers out there.

Godolphin has been having a pretty fair meet after winning a G-1 with Seventh Street in the first week they took another G-1 with Flashing in the Test. Godolphin loves to win at Saratoga, keep a special eye out for the horses they have coming back from long layoffs. Girolamo was very impressive on Sunday and Pyro nearly got it done in the meets first stakes race.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 10

2009-08-10T09:51:00.002-06:00

I promise to return with a more thorough review tomorrow but for now some quick picks will have to suffice.

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Speed Dating/Exonerated/One In a Romp/Soave =$12
$1 trifecta box - Speed Dating/Exonerated/One In a Romp/Soave =$24

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Zori's Eye/Pletcher Entry/Marabelle =$12

Wagered - $48

Good luck everyone!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 9

2009-08-08T18:17:00.003-06:00

The weekend has been pretty hectic I'll just post my plays and be done with it for Sunday. Let's go chalk!

Race #5
$25 W - Tam Lin

Race #10
$25 W - Fabulous Strike

Wagered - $50

Saratoga Diary - Aug 8

2009-08-07T19:37:00.003-06:00

For the sake of simplicity I'll simply post my plays for Saturday now and hope that there aren't too many scratches. We almost hit some big scores on Friday but it just wasn't to be. I'm hoping for a nice formful day in the sun at Saratoga.

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Spell/Laguna Moon/Kelly Entry =$6
$1 trifecta box - Spell/Laguna Moon/Kelly Entry =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Bluegrass Princess/Maram/Complicity/Striking Dancer =$12
$1 trifecta box - Bluegrass Princess/Maram/Complicity/Striking Dancer =$24

Race #10
$10 W - Smooth Air =$10

Wagered - $58
Meet Balance = -$363.25 (-80.19%)

Saratoga Diary - Aug 7

2009-08-07T09:53:00.002-06:00

I don't have much to say about today's card. I do like my chances of getting out on this card, which would be a first for me at this meet. I'm playing most of these races based on my home cooked speed ratings which are essentially a composite average of the most popular figures like Beyers, BRISnet Speed and the DRF Speed Rating. I was looking forward to playing Uvada in the 5th but she has scratched out and I don't see much else out there.

Good luck to everyone today!

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Bella Attrice/Crazy Catlady/Bobs Pinup Girl/Mindbender =$12

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Loxy Lady/Maria's Moon/Who Is Lady =$6
$1 trifecta box - Loxy Lady/Maria's Moon/Who Is Lady =$6

Race #8
$2 exacta box - Mission Approved/Southwest/Lord Kipling =$12

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Gulf Cat/Jet Set Vinny/Mott Entry =$6
$1 trifecta box - Gulf Cat/Jet Set Vinny/Mott Entry =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$352.70 (-87.09%)

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-08-07T07:20:00.006-06:00

Whitney Handicap

If you don't recognize the excel sheet above it's the results of my 20-20 Profile for the Whitney Handicap. In brief the 20-20 is a statistical profile system that rates the current competitors against a model defined by past winners. You can easily see how the system rates the contenders so I won't go too much into it. Smooth Air is the obvious choice both statistically and to the naked eye. Commentator looks like he's not quite as sharp as he was in previous seasons when he won this race. In previous years he was also a perfect 20-20 qualifier and he had some big numbers but this year he looks past his best. Smooth Air should shake off his bridesmaid tag and move forward in his new barn. No offense to his prior connections but I love the job Chad Brown is doing with his charges. I know Macho Again is rated in the second tier for this race but I really don't like him. I've had a rough history with this horse, I never seem to read him right. I suppose he should be tossed into the exactas but I don't trust him. I do like Dry Martini to make some noise. I don't think he's up to beating Smooth Air but he is great at two turns and Tagg's stable has been hot at the Spa. He's the one I'd use primarily with Smooth Air but the Smooth Jazz colt lays over the field in my mind.

Smooth Air

Arlington Million

Gio Ponti should be favored in the Million and he's the top 20-20 choice as well. It seems like a bit of a waste to develop a system that gives you just the two favorites in Smooth Air and Gio Ponti but I think some of the value of the system is the fact that horses like Commentator and Einstein come out much worse than you'd think. To me that says stay focused on the clear choices and don't get distracted by the classy duo. Gio Ponti needs very little introduction, he hasn't lost on the grass this year and I don't think his luck will run out here. He's the best turf horse in the nation and as long as Presious Passion does not hijack the race with his crazy pace tactics I think he's the clear winner. Even if Presious Passion does take off I think Gio Ponti can catch him. The horses that have been chasing him lately like Banrock and Lauro are no where near the class of Gio Ponti. I think there is danger from Gloria de Campeao because he's got great tactical speed. I think he's the first horse to get to Presious Passion and perhaps the race simply comes down to how much ground Gio Ponti has to make up in the final quarter mile. If he is within three lengths he wins, if not I think Gloria de Campeao could be the one to spring the upset.

Gio Ponti

There's No Place Like.....

2009-08-07T06:47:00.002-06:00

A commenter has brought a salient point to light and it's that there is no substitute for being at the track and seeing the horses live. That's not something I've been able to do during the Saratoga meeting so all my picks have been sight unseen. But I do recall that my biggest day ever at the track included a score in the 2003 Canadian Handicap. There was a solid field lined up and my initial analysis of the race had me settling on Diadella but when I got to the paddock everything changed. A filly named Inish Glora was jumping out of her skin. To this day I have still never seen a horse look so impressive in the pre-race buildup. She looked colossal and I simply had to back her. She ran an excellent race that day to score at 10/1 with me fully behind her. There is simply no substitute for seeing them in the flesh.

In the absence of such a privilege though we soldier on. It was another rough day for me all around but the problem does not lie with my overall handicapping. The problem is simply which horse I choose to make my primary pick. Once again this week my second choices are carrying the banner. My primary picks are 19-0-7-1 while my second choices are 19-6-4-4. It's gets pretty frustrating to see horses win when you liked them but have no stake in them.

I played three trifecta's yesterday and none of them cashed but in race 3 I had the 2-3-4 finishers and in race 9 I had the 1-3-4 finishers. Past the Point and Paul's Hope scuppered my dreams of some nice returns. Things have to fall into place some time.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 6

2009-08-06T09:43:00.002-06:00

I love the days when you don't need to fret over whether or not the weather is going to wipe out the card. The fields are run more or less in the form that you handicapped. I don't about other people but I tend to have looked over all the races and compiled short lists for each race at least a day before. A pile of scratches and changes in track condition wipe out all that preliminary work.

Yesterday was not the best of days for me. I'm finding it really hard to come up with winners but I'm optimistic that things will change a bit today. I've decided to start relying more on my own speed ratings. Had I followed them a bit more up to this point I'd be doing much better.

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Shoptate/Mister Triester/Cave's Valley/Spin Master =$12
$1 trifecta box - Shoptate/Mister Triester/Cave's Valley/Spin Master =$24

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Pluto/Budget/Four Star Bo =$6
$1 trifecta box - Pluto/Budget/Four Star Bo =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - City Sneakers/Strong Impact/Lyke a Hurricane =$6
$1 trifecta box - City Sneakers/Strong Impact/Lyke a Hurricane =$6

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$292.70 (-84.84%)

I'm dabbling a bit with some trifecta's today because I'm hoping that speed will prove to be superior today. I'm going against Past the Point in Race 3 despite all the good form he's got. I think if we can get him out of the frame the payouts could be very nice indeed. Past the Point is definitely the best horse in the race but so was Riley Tucker on opening day. Past the Point is less a sprinter than router so I'm against the short price.

As a fan I'm really looking forward to seeing Driven by Success against Ferocious Fires. Both high quality horses with near flawless records at Saratoga. They're both G-1 placed horses and I sure hope they both show up and run their best.

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Dirt Mile

2009-08-06T08:57:00.002-06:00

Dirt Mile Top 10 - Aug 6th

1. Smooth Air (1)
2. Georgie Boy (3)
3. Albertus Maximus (4)
4. Big Drama (5)
5. Informed (6)
6. Monterey Jazz (7)
7. My Pal Charlie (8)
8. Mythical Power (9)
9. Wishful Tomcat (10)
10. Mast Track (new)

Dropped: Rail Trip (2)

Rail Trip is the only major change to my rankings for this race and he was not removed because he's not good enough. He was removed from this list because he's far too good for this race. The Dirt Mile has always been a place where Classic rejects go to prosper. Rail Trip could win up being the Classic favorite if he follows up his Hollywood Gold Cup performance with a decent effort in either the Pacific Classic or Goodwood.

Mast Track makes the top 10 for the first time because of the removal of Rail Trip and I think if we're being realistic we realize that Mast Track is the kind of horse that runs well once or twice a year. He has a decent effort recently in the San Diego but he'll likely look much worse in his next few starts. The positive thing about an inconsistent horse is that negative form is more or less expected. He doesn't have to be great every time out. He still has a chance in the Dirt Mile because he'd just have to run big on that day.

Informed bolstered his reputation with a nice score in the San Diego but he's not at the class level of the horses in front of him. Even Big Drama, despite his recent loss has to be feared because of his capacity for the brilliant. Big Drama simply ran out of gas in the West Virginia Derby. A shorter race would have seen him named the winner.

Smooth Air hits the track this weekend in the Whitney and he's likely the best horse in the race. I certainly expect him to come out on top but I don't think it will be the kind of effort that has his connections thinking more of the Classic than Dirt Mile. Smooth Air has shown that he can do 9f but 10f is a bit too much.

Beached

2009-08-05T16:34:00.002-06:00

I think I very much played the fish out of water today. No winners on top and just two winners as my second choices.

Todd Pletcher did have an impact today but he had one winner whereas I was backing him to get two or three. At any rate Paracaidas made a nice return to the races in the third. He was widely rumored to be a good thing last year but came up just short in his Saratoga debut. This was the first time he was seen back in action and he won in very determined fashion. I was able to catch the exacta in the third and although it only paid $24 that makes it my highest return of the meet.

Cocoa Beach looked like the best horse on paper in the De la Rose but people were more than willing to opposed her. I myself went for McPeek's Teamgeist over the Godolphin horse but Cocoa Beach showed a bit of her old class to carry the day. Make no mistake she was not the Cocoa Beach of old in this effort but she was good enough to grind out a win.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 5

2009-08-05T08:08:00.003-06:00

It's a beautiful day at Saratoga and it seems like all 5 turf races are in no danger of being moved to the grass. Let's see if the nice weather brings a bit more success all around. Anyone that has read this space knows that it was a tough week at the windows. Over at Equidaily it was printed that the top public handicappers had just 19 winners on top. 19 winners is good and since I had only 13 I would have loved to have been that good but it's nothing close to the fantastic results we often see from public handicappers. You'll generally find that there is someone out there getting 25ish winners in a single week. No one keeps up that pace for the whole meet but it is possible for a week. The fact that the best had 19 says to me that it was a tough week all around.

It was especially bad for my spot plays but hope springs eternal and I'm certainly hoping to get on a roll today.

Race #3
$2 exacta box - Mott Entry/Catnandu/Paracaidas =$12

Race #4
$2 exacta box - Calipari/Mesa Vista/Vamos a Ver =$12

$1 Daily Double (3/4)
Mott Entry/Paracaides
Calipari/Mesa Vista/Vamos a Ver =$6

Race #8
$5 WP - Teamgeist =$10

Race #9
$10 W - Echo in Eternity =$10

Although I only hit one paltry exacta last week I did have two of the top three in almost half of my of my wagers so I'm hoping that things kind of fall into place a little more. One trainer I'm going to keep a very close eye on in week 2 is Todd Pletcher. He's actually up to 3 winners now after starting off very slowly but in past meets I've always noted that week 2 is really when Todd gets a foothold if he's going to do well at the meet. He's got a couple of juveniles in today and I like one of them on top in the 4th, I'm also using his one in the 3rd in both the exacta and daily double.

In today's feature I'm actually picking against Cocoa Beach because I think she's a bad bet at 6/5 when we don't really know why she ran so poorly last time. I know you also get Skylighter as part of the entry but I'm not sure how she'll be on the grass in fact I half expect her to come out and wait for a spot on the main track. I'm using Teamgeist in hopes that McPeek really does have a special one on his hands. Her record in Argentina was fantastic and a mile hits her right between the eyes. She could be much better than we know and she's worth a bit of a tilt.

Dr. Smarty Jack has turned into a wise guy selection for a lot of pro's so I'm going with Echo in Eternity for Pletcher.

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Mile

2009-08-04T12:44:00.002-06:00

Mile Top 10 - Aug 4th

1. Gio Ponti (1)
2. Goldikova (3)
3. Ghanaati (5)
4. Monterey Jazz (2)
5. Rahy's Attorney (7)
6. Tam Lin (6)
7. Hyperbaric (8)
8. Delegator (9)
9. Mr. Sidney (10)
10. Kip Deville (4)

No horses were dropped from the original top 10 created a month ago however the order was shuffled around a bit. The situation with Kip Deville is a bit troubling, I think we just have no idea if he's ever going to be his old self again. I can forgive him enough to keep him in the list because there aren't a ton of other great options, but also I'm more willing to overlook his under performance when it comes in races that aren't two turn miles. The two turn mile has always been the specialty of Kip Deville. Failures at slightly different conditions carry a little less weight for me.

Justenuffhumor marked himself as the new kid on the block with his stirring victory in the Fourstardave but I'm still just a bit wary of him. Despite his excellent form he's only run one race good enough to compete with the best milers and he has not been doing his best work at a mile specifically. You might say it's splitting hairs since he's obviously a good horse going just half a furlong more but from 1996 to the present there have been 68 horses that have entered the Mile without having achieved their career highest Beyer (or equivalent European rating) at exactly one mile on the grass. Only Da Hoss in 1996 found his way to the winners circle. It's a stat I plan to hang my hat on when trying to identify the true mile specialists.

One horse that did emerge from the Fourstardave with credit that is a real miler is Mambo Meister. He has a long way to go on quality but he's the kind that could hit the board at a price. His best race definitely comes at a mile.

The new dominant force from Europe is Rip Van Winkle. He thrashed Ghanaati soundly in the Sussex but he does not make the list because Coolmore will send him to the Classic. In fact he may be my new #1 for the Classic. He could win this race if he were running but he won't run. Ghanaati was outclassed in the Sussex but she can still improve and the BC Mile could well be an easier race than the Sussex.

Another horse I'd love to add but can't is Colonel John. Unfortunately he's headed for the Classic too but he was very impressive in his first ever Turf race. The Wickerr is often a tougher than it seems event and Colonel John won it in very impressive fashion. If he were given a Turf campaign he could be a major contender.

Monterey Jazz had a major collapse in the last month but he doesn't fall too far down my rankings. The race was one of the weirdest ever from a pace perspective and I don't think it's a really true reflection of form. The Eddie Read only told us what we already know. Monterey Jazz is brilliant when he's not overly keyed up but once he gets caught he throws in the towel. The trick for his competition is catching him.

Gio Ponti and Rahy's Attorney are still not being campaigned like milers but they're winning in fine style and I still think we'll see even better from them once they cut back in distance.

The Most Wonderful Time

2009-08-04T07:26:00.003-06:00

So ends week one, as a handicapper I'm glad to see the back of it. As a fan I was glad to be a part of it in my own way. I don't live anywhere near Saratoga and I won't be visiting the track this summer but the Internet has so many resources that allow you to feel a part of the action even from thousands of miles away.

The first week was a tough one at the windows. My spot plays showed a -90% return on investment. Basically I blew it big time. I played 14 different exacta combos and hit just one. But on six different occasions two of my three exacta horses hit the frame, it's just that they weren't filling the first two spots.

Over the last week I singled out 15 of horses that I considered to be the most likely winners and just one of them won. In fact only three of them even hit the board. That's pretty much as horrendous as you can get. I'm looking for ways to reverse my fortunes a bit over these next few weeks but I am still enjoying myself. That's the neat thing about Saratoga it's like Christmas for me. Even when it's bad it's better than every other time of year. It's like the saying goes "If you can't learn to do something well, learn to enjoy doing it poorly" I think that definitely applies to my first week at the windows.

I have been a fan of Quality Road ever since he broke his maiden but somehow I always end up going against him for a better price. I really need to stop doing that because one thing that has become increasingly evident with each start is that he is an above average animal and the normal rules do not apply. It's generally a good idea to go with experienced and classy sprinters over a router who is just trying to get back to the races. But Quality Road is not a sprinter or router specifically he's just a good horse. Like Ghostzapper before him he seems able to simply win races impressively and in fast times no matter what the challenge seems to be. Breaking the track record on his comeback was a huge effort. This horse might be the only one out there freaky enough to challenge Rachel.

It was a bit of a rough week for favorites. They won just 16 of the 60 races held this week. 26% is just a bit low for favorites who generally win around 30% or more. Odds on favorites compiled a record of 10-5-1-1. Believe it or not but back in 2003 and 2004 you could have made a profit at Saratoga simply by playing the favorite over the rest of the field in exacta's. Those were strong years for favorites and the pool's were bigger back then. That angle has long since dried up.

Weekend Review

2009-08-03T10:35:00.002-06:00

Weekend Overview: So is Rachel Alexandra the best filly of all time? She is definitely the best filly I've ever seen and in my mind she has surpassed Ruffain, Regret, Busher, Personal Ensign and all those greats save one. Twilight Tear is still the standard for me but Rachel Alexandra doesn't have far to go. A win over a quality field of older males would definitely put her over the top as the greatest filly of the modern era in my opinion. Munnings proved himself to be a quality horse who should have been kept in sprinting races. He'll be very hard to be in any sprint race this year but he was never going to beat a monster like that. Mine That Bird looks more ordinary by the day. He's a quality horse that fans should enjoy for years to come but he's not really championship quality. He'll probably be the top three year old male this year but that division is really thinning out. The best three year old males seem to be sprinters this year. Forever Together got back on track even though the course was likely softer than she wanted. I can see her sweeping every event from here to the end of the season unless Gozzip Girl continues to improve. Colonel John was nearly the most impressive horse of the week in the Wickerr Handicap. He loved the turf and had his rivals all at sea once he got going. It wasn't quite War Chant's turf debut but Colonel John could be as good as anyone on the grass if connections choose to leave him there. Justenuffhumor is definitely a rising star in the Turf division. If he can avoid Gio Ponti he just may find himself undefeated until the Breeders' Cup.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Rachel Alexandra is now officially the best Three Year Old Female on record. Better than Rags to Riches, Ashado and Silverbulletday and we're only in August. She still has a few months of serious racing to go. It's incredible to think that she's outdone those fillies in such a short span of time. One more G-1 win basically guarantees that she cannot be caught in the standings. She is already a lock in the hearts and minds of race fans but the numbers say she needs one more just to be totally safe from some horse that may get hot over the summer and fall.

Power Rankings: Six fillies are among the top 10 best active horses in racing. Rachel Alexandra dominates the list of course but Forever Together, Informed Decision and three Main Track Older Females also make the list. This may even be a stronger year for fillies than 1999 when we had Beautiful Pleasure, Banshee Breeze, Silverbulletday, Manitisque, Soaring Softly and Excellent Meeting. Enjoy these fillies to the fullest because they're a very special lot.

Performance of the Week: Champions and all time greats often have defining moments of brilliance or courage. The Haskell is the race that both ushered Rachel Alexandra into the company of the most exalted and the race that will likely be used to surmise her career. There could be more brilliant feats to come but this was definitely her best race to date. Summer Bird also ran a career best race and Munnings tried his little heart out despite going too far but they were in their own race. Rachel Alexandra was already walking back to be unsaddled. This was one of the best performances in the past decade by any three year old, male or female. She simply looked invincible and for champions the aura can be just as important as the accomplishments.

Race of the Week: Blanket finishes in dirt races usually point to a lack of quality but they sure are good to watch. Backtalk seems like a good enough juvenile but 100 yards from home in the Sanford I sure had some questions about how good he was. He was rightly favored off of his past form but the Sanford field seemed to get away from him on the far turn. The principals quickened and he struggled to stay on terms. But in the final furlong as the top 3 were dueling themselves into submission Backtalk and Bulls and Bears were getting on track. They all finished with a rush and the neck margin of victory almost seemed generous. Only 1 1/4 lengths separated the first five horses across the line.

Flop of the Week: Both Kip Deville and Well Armed were horrendous this weekend. I'm not sure that either has a legitimate excuse other than the fact that they're now old and obviously inconsistent. How could Well Armed have gone from Dubai World Cup winner and defending champion in the San Diego to failing to beat a single horse? Kip Deville was perhaps less of a surprise since he was flat in his last effort too but I thought the track had more to do with that effort. Evidently not, he may have simply lost a step.

Tip O'the Cap: The DRF did a little spot on Informed a few months back about how he might be the next Lava Man. A older horse claimed by O'Neill and transformed into a stakes runner he seemed to have a few similarities. But a few things have since become clear. He's not nearly as fast as Lava Man and he's never going to be a serious horse of the year candidate. But let's appreciate him for what he is. His latest gutsy win in the San Diego brought his career earnings to half a million dollars and he's now a dual G-2 winner and is just a nose shy of have three G-2's to his name. Informed is a cool horse and I wish him all the best.

KC Handicapping: My Saratoga travails are being documented on a day to day basis so this little recap will focus solely on my weekend picks and analysis. It was a shaky week for me in that I didn't really have strong opinions in any stakes races aside from knowing that Rachel Alexandra would win for fun. I ended up going with four horses in two races. Lucky for me one of them (Justenuffhumor) ran well and paid for the rest. So a week where I was pretty confused becomes one of my best recently. I can see the humor in that.

Weekly Record: 4(2)-1-0-0 ($1.50 +18.75% ROI)
Overall Record: 793(446)-137-124-101 (-$157.50 -9.93% ROI)

Saratoga Diary - Aug 3

2009-08-03T09:38:00.004-06:00

So it's the last day of week one at Saratoga and for many of us it's our last chance to do something respectable. Even though the Past Performances have been released for the start of next week I haven't really looked at those cards at all. For now it's been enough to reflect on the quality we've been seeing. Hot Dixie Chick, Forever Together, Kensei and Justenuffhumor were impressive winners. Well in line with the historical expectation of top class performances at this track.

It looks like the rain will hold off so only the 2yo races are affected. Both races 3 and 5 were taken off the turf quite early.

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Most Happy Fella/Porcello/Treasure Trunk =$6

Race #3
$10 W - Pendulum
$2 exacta box - Pendulum/King Kitten/Zayat Entry =$12

Race #5
$10 W - Zilva
$2 exacta box - Zilva/Pretty B/Leopard Rock =$12

Race #8
$10 W - Everday Heroes

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Golden Mexico/Royal Vindication/Together Indy =$6

Wagered - $66
Meet Balance = -$200.70 (-87.64%)

I'm a little over budget today but even with these wagers I'm in below the $50 per day average for the week. I am going back to the 2yo races and spreading my shots with some exacta's but I'm keying on an angle that I like in races 3 and 5. Motion is not known for his babies but he is very good with horses in off the turf races. He already had Zimmer fill the bottom on an exacta at a decent price in a similar event and I like both his entrants in races 3 and 5.

In today's feature I see it as an extremely tough event not unlike the Jim Dandy in that there are several talented and consistent horses lining up. I'm going against Quality Road because I think he's not a pure sprinter like some others but also because Pletcher has been cold, especially on the main track. Everyday Heroes has only ever lost to Munnings and Kensei hasn't lost since facing those two. I think Everyday Heroes is a better pure sprinter than Quality Road and he might be more talented than Capt. Candyman Can who I also really respect. Don't be surprised to see a massive performance from the winner and a big Beyer earned.

Should be another great day of racing at the Spa!

Garcia-ville

2009-08-03T08:47:00.002-06:00

Alan Garcia is in a major zone right now. He fully deserves to be atop the rider standings. Garcia currently sits with 8 and next best are Dominquez and Prado with 5. Justenuffhumor was only one example of the superb handling Garcia has been giving his mounts. I know he won the jockey title last year but I more or less figured that McLaughlin being leading trainer was the biggest factor but this year he's winning with anyone that will ride him. He's won for 7 different trainers so far. Garcia could easily be developing into the next big money rider in America.

Todd Pletcher finally got off the mark yesterday in the opener when Miss Catalyst took a contentious Turf allowance. For a trainer that had aspirations of reclaiming the training title he sure got off to a poor start. Now he often does start this meet with caution but Mott and Asmussen look like serious challengers this year. Pletcher may not be able to catch them.

Pletcher is about the only person that has had a slower start to the meet than me. Sunday was a rough day for the spot plays but I least I managed to get 4 winners on top as single selections. I'm showing a negative return of -87.64% on my recommended wagers. I hope to halt that trend pretty soon. After just having just 5 winners on the first 3 cards I've had 7 in the last 2. Hopefully that form translates over to my spot plays.

Was I the only one sad to see Kip Deville never really engage himself in the Fourstardave? Kip was once a very consistent performer. Now after two straight clunkers his career may be in jeopardy.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 2

2009-08-01T18:04:00.002-06:00

Sunday is a tough day for me to keep track of things going on in the racing world so I'll have to post my picks sight unseen. If rain decimates the card I'm pooched because I'm really relying on some nice grass races to carry the day for me.

Race #1
$10 W - Americas Dreaming

Race #2
$10 W - Forest Bell

Race #3
$10 W - Mythical Yarn

$1 Pick 3 (1/2/3)
Americas Dreaming/Strike the Bell/Dynaslew
Forest Bell/Kutais
Mythical Yarn =$6

Race #7
$10 W - Kip Deville

Race #8
$10 W - American Dance

Race #9
$2 exacta box - Godolphin Entry/Luna Vega =$4

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$222.20 (-95.78%)

I'm going a bit heavier on Sunday but I expect that once the scratches come out I'll have lost at least a wager or two. I really like horses in the first three races and given the fact that it's an all turf Pick 3 I might as well have a tilt at it.

I'm sticking with some rather obvious plays in the stakes races but I am choosing to box Asmussen's Luna Vega with Godolphin's powerful entry. Asmussen has been hot and all Luna Vega needs to do is outrun Miss Isella and the bottom half of the exacta is as good as hers. I'm boxing it just in case we see something like the West Virginia Derby where the unthinkable horse splits the logical dangers. Asmussen is having that kind of run.

Forever Optimistic

2009-08-01T17:36:00.003-06:00

I was really hoping to have something positive to report about today. Maybe a run of six winners or cashing on a 20/1 bomb but instead it was a largely disappointing day like the others have been. But I'll stick with the positives anyway. I cashed my first wager of the meet. A skinny $9.80 exacta in the second race. Thankfully Tigresco scratched out of the race to make it just a $4 exacta box. So at least for on that race I came out a winner and I'm now guaranteed not to lose 100% on my spot plays.

Another positive note is that I'm now 11-5-0-1 in grass races this meet. It's basically my only positive subset. Perhaps I should start using those grass races as my spot plays.

Kensei is way better than I thought he was. I'm not sure how far he stays but he looked quite nice in the Dandy. Forever Together barely outfought the tough challenger Carribean Sunset but the champ has still never lost a two turn turf race so you have to take her. Rutherienne should have stayed in Canada where she could win Graded Stakes uninhibited, she simply isn't going to beat Forever Together.

Speaking of horses that don't look like winning any races could Winchester have been any worse? He never ran a step against horses he ought to have handled. Terrible effort.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 1

2009-08-01T08:11:00.002-06:00

The weather does look improved for Saratoga today and we do have a carryover for the Pick 6 that begins with Race 6. I think we'll see the real players getting serious today. We do have one race that has come off the turf, Race 2 but the scratches have not come out yet. Personal time constraints will prevent me from posting these plays after the scratches but before the card begins so here we go.

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Hoopoe/Tigresco/Zimmer =$12

Race #4
$10 W - Colors Flying

$1 Pick 3 (4/5/6)
Colors Flying/Jayden's Hope
Luv Gov/Darley Entry/Burley's Gold/Stealth Missile
Discreetly Mine

Race #6
$10 W - Discreetly Mine
$2 exacta box - Discreetly Mine/Zayat Entry/Hockley =$12

My key for the day is Discreetly Mine and I'm actually steering clear of the stakes races. Forever Together should win and she's my primary selection but I do respect Carribean Sunset and I think the ground moves her up. Getting back to Discreetly Mine I'll use him in the win pool, exacta's and as a single for my Pick 3. That's placing a lot of weight on him but I think he's fabulous and clearly the best bet of the day.

I'm fooling around a bit with an exacta in Race #2 despite not seeing the scratches. I think most of the connections will tend to leave their horses in and it's a very playable race.

In Race 4 I think the McGaughey horse Colors Flying is sitting on a big race. I know she'll be well bet because of her breeding and connections but I love seeing horses from this barn with fast 5f works. That's not something you see often and I think it's a real go signal. I'm placing a bit of emphasis on Colors Flying as well although I am hedging a bit in the Pick 3.

I think the Pick 6 is worth a shot but not on a budget of $50 per day. Forever Together is bit vulnerable and the state-bred stakes race looks wide open. There are also some good possible singles with Discreetly Mine and Winchester.

Best of luck to everyone today!

Off The Pace

2009-07-31T17:37:00.003-06:00

Friday was another tough chapter in my Saratoga adventure. Respectability is quickly fading out of sight. I once again failed to cash any of my spot plays which today were all exacta boxes. I was knocking on the door however with two of my exacta boxes featuring the 1st and 3rd place finishers. I just needed things to fall into place a little differently.

The major weakness I seemed to have exposed in myself is not being able to properly determine who the main speed will be. I keep expecting to see so much more pace out of my selections than they actually give.

Speed did pretty well today but my primary picks generally weren't the speed.

I don't know if anyone bothers to check out my full selections and results at the Saratoga 2009 spreadsheet but I thought I'd point out the fact that while my primary selections for each race have gone 28-5-4-2 with a negative return of -$21.90 for a $2 win bet my secondary selections for each race have gone 29-10-2-3. It seems as though the horses that I think are the second most likely winners can't stop winning. A win bet on each of those entrants would have yielded a $54.80 profit! Over all my ability to come up with the right mix of horses is spot on. It's just that I'm failing at making the final decisions of who to take.

Washout days often leave me feeling a bit depressed. Let's hope for some sunshine tomorrow and some turf races. We've got a $126k carryover for Saturday's Pick 6 so if anyone is looking for a good day to get hot at windows this would be it.

Saratoga Diary - July 31

2009-07-31T09:57:00.004-06:00

Rain has forced Races 1, 3, 4 and 9 off the grass and onto the main track. Obviously weather like this and off-turf races result in scratches. 23 horses are early scratches and there are surely more to come as the day progresses. The 8th race, the Lake George, may still come off the grass if the rain does not relent. I'm going to tread lightly today with just a few exacta boxes but hopefully I can cash a wager here sometime. I haven't fared well in the first two days.

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Musicsetsmefree/Notably Made/Miss Lulu Belle =$12

Race #4
$2 exacta box - Key Quality/Kid Kate/Pletcher Entry =$12

Race #6
$2 exacta box - Frankel Entry/Maraschino Red/See the Forest =$12

Race #8
$5 WP - Strike the Bell =$10 (Turf Only)

Wagered - $46

Meet Balance = -$96.00 (-100.00%)

My big bet of the day was set to be on Tommasi but connections are obviously worried about him over a sloppy track. We'll look for him to surface again in the next few days, perhaps in allowance company.

I'm left with a few exacta boxes on the juvenile races and an allowance in the 6th. In the second I think Ramon Hernandez is pretty dangerous with his state-breds and certainly the Ward third timer has a huge chance after facing much tougher horses in her first few starts. I threw Notably Made into the box because it struck me as odd that connections are running her back in this company after two horrendous tries at Belmont. She is not well bred so there is little to lose in risking her in a claiming race. Cheap maiden state-bred claimers would seem to be more logical company for her but here she is. Perhaps she has something that she hasn't shown yet.

The 4th race is interesting because although all the horses entered with the intention of running on turf most of the connections seems to be fine with starting on dirt as well because only 3 horses have come out of the race. Mott and Pletcher are must use connections in these kinds of races. Kid Kate starts off the meet for Chad Brown who has won with 45% of his 2yo's. It's a small sample size but Brown is one of racings training stars in waiting and many of his juveniles will be live.

I love the Frankel entry in the 6th. I think both of his horses are live and either could win, both may run in the money. Maraschino Red has been consistent at the distance and could move forward second off the layoff. See the Forest is a speedy bomb who suddenly got good in March at Aqueduct and connections have put her away until now. She has a solid run of workouts and a nice pedigree. 20/1 seems like a bit of value for a horse that could be on the lead.

I don't have a strong opinion in the feature but Mary's Follies is likely the best horse on turf or dirt but soft ground does concern me a bit. Strike The Bell has a huge chance if it stays on the grass but at the time of writing I simply don't know if it will be a grass race. I'll try to get a small Win/Place wager on her if it stays on the grass. I thought she was moved a bit too soon in her last and should come forward off that effort.

Weekend Picks And Analysis

2009-07-31T08:45:00.002-06:00

Jim Dandy Stakes
The Haskell may have most of the headliners in the 3yo division but the Jim Dandy is a far better race for a handicapper. Rachel Alexandra should have very little trouble with her opponents at Monmouth but it's genuinely difficult even coming up with a favorite for the Jim Dandy. There are seven horses in the race and I like five of them. In a race like this you will probably get a fair price on whomever you land on. I'm thinking of taking Charitable Man over the others. He ran one of the best maiden races of the summer at Saratoga last year and other than his Polytrack effort he has never run poorly. I thought he ran well enough to win the Belmont until the final furlong when the distance simply found him out. I don't think connections seriously view him as a contender for the BC Marathon so that lack of stamina won't really matter in the long run. He fully stay 9f which is what we're concerned with here. He also has excellent tactical speed which gives him a slight edge over the other horse I really like, Convocation. If Convocation were a publicly traded company you'd have to be buying into him now before his price gets out of control. His run of three races at Belmont has seen his stock rise considerably already but I think there is much more to come. If there is any horse really poised to have a "Tiznow" like second half of the year it's this horse. If he doesn't win a very nice stakes race before the year is out I'll be surprised. I'm a bit concerned that he'll be further off the pace than Charitable Man but then again horses have been coming from off the pace without too much trouble. I think I'll have to use both horses in this space. Kensei had his breakout race last time and I'm hoping that he regresses a little bit. Warrior's Reward has been an excuse horse for most of his life I think he'll run well but I don't want him for the win spot. Saratoga Sinner is likely just too fresh for this spot. He'll need a race or two and maybe a lighter field.

Charitable Man
Convocation

Fourstardave Handicap
It's hard to tell what the weather will be like this evening at Saratoga so figuring out the conditions for Sunday's will probably be tricky. But I will assume with the way it's raining today that soft or yielding conditions are likely. I think it's a critical issue because Cowboy Cal can win this race on a firm track but I think that more testing conditions play against him. I have been looking for a chance to play Kip Deville when he comes back to two turns and I think this is it. Soft conditions should not be a real problem, remember he won the BC Mile at Monmouth when the weather was worse than I've ever seen. I think the one turn configuration had more to do with his loss last time than the soft ground. It's hard to believe that this 6yo has never been to Saratoga but I think he'll settle in just fine. At his best he's the best horse in the race but I may hedge on him a little because of the other speed in here. Cosmonaut, Papa Bear and Cowboy Cal are all likely to keep close tabs on him and press him through fractions that may prove to be testing. I think the in form horse that will benefit from this is Justenuffhumor. He has never lost a grass race and he ought to sit a perfect trip in behind the speed. McLaughlin and Garcia are a potent combination and this horse has already mastered the allowance ranks in New York. It's a step up in class for him but it's the logical place to go. Connections have been really careful when placing him so I have to assume that he is more than up to this task.

Kip Deville
Justenuffhumor

The Agony Of Indecision

2009-07-31T06:29:00.003-06:00

My theme for Saratoga this year has been more about defeat than victory. Yesterday was a punishing day in that regard. I had two winners on top but I talked myself out of another few which could have made a big difference.

On my initial scan over the card I had tabbed Working Class Hero as the most likely winner of the second race but I was plagued by second guessing after a rough first day and I switched to the more heavily backed Woodacre instead. Working Class Hero got first run on Woodacre and just wouldn't quit in the lane. He paid $19.20.

Something else I had intended to do was to play Linda Rice's horses in Turf sprints. I was all set to do so with We're Hooked in the 6th and Ahvee's Destiny in the 8th but Rice scratched Ahvee's Destiny and instead of gravitating towards her second entry in the race I went with my original second choice. Awakino Cat paid $20.20 to those that kept faith in the Queen of Turf Sprints.

Once again I had zero returns in my plays of the day. I need to start cashing a few tickets before the losses get out of hand.

The Sanford was an exciting race to watch even if it wasn't the highest quality affair. Backtalk showed his professionalism and nose for the wire with his third straight win over a tightly bunched group of 4 other horses. Generally blanked finishes like this in dirt races mean that the race was not very good and that is the general impression I'm left with. Bulls and Bears looks like the best of this group after having a terrible trip and only losing by 1 1/4 lengths. Most of his trouble was self inflicted but it was still legitimate trouble that made all the difference between victory and defeat. Play him back when he shows up next at this meet.

A few other quick observations I've made. Turf Sprints seem to be going to late runners while having early speed or good tactical speed seems to be more important for two turn races on the grass. Nobody wired a two turn grass race yesterday but two horses at 17/1 and 11/1 nearly pulled it off.