Track This

Not sold on the usefulness of individual timing or ground loss data? How about this use for Trakus.

From the DRF
"In a lengthy explanation to the Keeneland publicity staff, Michael Ciacciarelli, chief executive officer for Trakus, said Mushka was traveling about 2.2 feet per second faster than Proviso at the time of the foul. Had there been no foul and if the two horses had kept a constant speed for the remaining 380 feet of the race, Mushka would have won by about 1 1/2 lengths, Ciacciarelli said."

Now tell me why this would not be a good thing at every racetrack? I'm not sure if the stewards had this data available to them at the time that made their decision but they could have and in the future I think they should have.

Trakus is an excellent tool that can be used in so many ways. Helping the stewards make decisions about disqualifications is just one of them but that in itself would be enough.

Rating Performance Rates

I'm expecting the entries to be drawn for Belmont's Saturday card any time now but while we wait to get a glance at the Past Performances I thought I'd fill up my time by posing a question that has perplexed me for many months.

Just what is the point of "Performance Rates"?

Most people have no idea what I'm talking about because despite the fact that Performance Rates have been around for a few years they get very little publicity. Thoroughbred Times actually features a link to them on their main page. Which you'd think would be exposure enough to have them more widely known. They were also developed by the Jockey Club, you have to think there is some clout there.

The basic premise of Performance Rates is clearly stated in the paragraph below that can be found by visiting Thoroughbred Times.

"Performance Rates are an objective measurement of racetrack performance developed by the Jockey Club Information Systems. Performance Rates assign a rate to horses based upon beaten lengths - who beat whom and by how much - with some adjustments made to standardize beaten distances to account for horses that are not pressed or eased in large fields. Time is not a factor in Performance Rates, which are based on every start by every horse in North America. Performance Rates are expressed in lengths around a theoretical mean of zero. The average Performance Rates of the best horses in a given year are generally about 30 lengths better than an average performance of the average horse."

Sounds good, a system created to tell us how much better certain horses are than the average, but what do Performance Rates look like in reality. Here are the current standings for 2009.

Overall Top 10
Rachel Alexandra - 39.33
Icon Project - 32.03
Mine That Bird - 31.14
Mr. Fantasy - 31.06
Munnings - 30.97
Dunkirk - 30.57
Quality Road - 30.54
Old Fashioned - 29.89
Musket Man - 29.81
Summer Bird - 29.30

Top 5 Older Males
Unbridled's Heart - 25.72
To Tell The Truth - 25.01
Tizway - 23.60
Macho Again - 23.30
Jen's Revenge - 23.26

Top 5 Turf Horses
Take the Points - 23.96
Better Talk Now - 22.72
Grand Couturier - 22.44
Gio Ponti - 22.07
Brass Hat - 21.97

I could go on listing all the divisions but if you know anything about horse racing then you're probably asking the same question as me. Why do rankings this horrendous even exist and furthermore why does a major racing publication promote them?

We are talking about a system so useful that even it's creators make no mention of it on their own website (Jockey Club Information Systems).

I'm sure the Darley Stable would be thrilled to learn that they in fact have the best older horse in the nation! Unbridled's Heart is win-less in three allowance starts this year but apparently that's all it takes. Maybe this will encourage them to retire him, you know, now that he has nothing left to prove.

I actually tried to reverse engineer these numbers to come up with an explanation for the erroneous results. No luck, these numbers seem to have little rhyme or reason.

Most of you will know that I actually do support the creation of point systems that help us quantify racing. I think it's a major hole in our industry. We can't easily point to any guide that allows us to quickly get a feel for the major players in each division. Performance Rates, however, are not the answer to this dilemma and they get an "F" and they should also be removed from cyberspace immediately.

The more you look at them the more you realize why no one else has ever mentioned them. Some things are best forgotten. In fact I apologize for bringing them to your attention.

Grade One Probables

These next three weeks are almost like the equivalent of the playoffs in other sports. We recognize that it's not quite the championship yet but the next few weeks will shape and define the championships. A horse's last prep before the Breeders' Cup is a big deal. Hold Me Back already flubbed his last prep and is now being put away for the year. I'm always intrigued by the matchup's in the prep races. It can be tough task finding out who might be facing who. Below is my best guess on the probable entrants for the 23 G-1 events being run over the next three weeks. Some of this is conjecture but most of it was gleaned from various articles. Hopefully some of the matchup's on this list get you excited!

Vosburgh - Fabulous Strike, Munnings, Ready's Echo, Go Go Shoot

Flower Bowl - Dynaforce, Caribbean Sunset, Criticism, Pure Clan, Lemonette, Leamington. Moneycantbuymelove, Queen of Hearts

Beldame - Icon Project, Music Note, Swift Temper, Unbridled Belle, Captain's Lover, Briecat, Copper State, Morena

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - Gio Ponti, Presious Passion, Grand Couturier, Telling, Al Khali

Jockey Club Gold Cup - Summer Bird, Quality Road, Asiatic Boy, Dry Martini, Macho Again, Tizway, Sette E Mezzo

Alcibiades - She Be Wild, Beautician, Worstcasescenario

Breeders' Futurity - Aspire, Aikenite

Oak Leaf - Blind Luck, Always a Princess, Pure Class, Softly Singing, La Nez

Norfolk - Lookin At Lucky, Dave in Dixie, Pulsion, John Scott, Court Mischief, Jung Man Scott, Smiling Tiger

Frizette - Hot Dixie Chick, Worstcasescenario, Awesome Maria

Champagne - Dublin, Gun Rock, Condemned, Not Macho Any More

Jamaica - Courageous Cat, Take the Points

First Lady - Forever Together, Tizaqueena

Shadwell Turf Mile - Justenuffhumor, Mr. Sidney

Spinster - Indescribable, Mushka

Lady's Secret - Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach, Life Is Sweet, Anabaa's Creation

Clement L Hirsch - Spring House, Sir Dave, Artiste Royal

Ancient Title - Gayego, Cost of Freedom, Talkin to Mom Roo, Atta Boy Roy

Yellow Ribbon - Magical Fantasy, Black Mamba, Life Is Sweet, Internallyflawless, Gotta Have Her

Goodwood - Tiago, Mine That Bird, Richard's Kid, Parading, Colonel John, Chocolate Candy

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup - Gozzip Girl, Miss World, Hot Cha Cha, Shared Account, Keertana, Lady Shakespeare

E.P. Taylor - Princess Haya, Much Obliged, Points of Grace, Rutherienne, Salve Germania

Canadian International - Marsh Side, Marchfield, Champs Elysees, Ask, Sariska, Just As Well, Casual Conquest, Buccelletti, Jukebox Jury

Just Enough Pedigree

It's not often that a comment inspires a post on this blog but that's mostly because only a few people leave comments. This particular comment was left at the Thoroughbred Champions homepage where this blog is also published.

Here is what Eric had to say in response to some negative comments I made about Justenuffhumor and his chances in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

"When I love a horse as much as Gone Astray or justenuffhumor, it is because of 1 reason. The absolute best bloodlines that the game has to offer. Inside information and smuggler gives me reason to believe that Gone Astray may be unbeatable when the phipps strike with him. The pensylvania derby 10 length win was the first step and I believe Gone Astray will prove it once again if entered in the BC. Justenuffhumor stems from a mare that made Kittens joy, precious kitten, and Dreaming of Anna. These names are special to say the least. Now Kiaran mclaughlin has his chance with this golden breeding and I am willing to give a gaurantee about justenuffhumor in a game where guarantees are hard to give. We shall see."

Eric

I have nothing against the breeding side of the game but I do feel that breeding is misleading when it comes to specific races.

A primary focus on breeding is not precise enough for me. Yes it's true that Gone Astray is regally bred. I'm not a breeding guy and I can easily see that but betting on him to fulfill that promise has been a losing venture.

Sure he ran huge in the Pennsylvania Derby but that was his 6th career route race and his first win in a non sprint event. Even if you cashed in Pennsylvania you lost overall while betting him in routes because he only paid $11.40. So right now you'd be down $0.60.

For me breeding is a good indicator of a horses possible overall potential. It can also give clues regarding a horses surface and distance preferences but I just can't make a case for it to be the bedrock of my handicapping.

There are just too many well bred horses losing races that their bloodlines claim they should win. In can see why others differ in their approach though. They are looking at the specific career of a single horse whereas I'm focusing on one particular moment in time.

Justenuffhumor is a good horse and I think he'll win his fair share of races but I view the Breeders' Cup Mile as a race for specialists and he's not a Mile specialist. It seems to me that 9f is actually his best distance. Unless he shows me something different in an 8f race I'm not going to be backing him for the win in the Breeders' Cup.

Many will really disagree with me but I am always going to defer my opinion of a horse to what they've done on the track as opposed to what their bloodlines claim they could be. To me bloodlines are just one piece of the puzzle and that piece becomes less significant as their career unfolds and they show what they can actually do. Fathers are often many things that their sons aren't and vice versa.

What Do You Want To See?

We have little to do but wait and see how our favorites are coming into the Derby. We've sufficiently chewed over most of what has already transpired and most of us have sorted out how we expect the Derby to finish. But what would change your mind for the better or worse about the contenders in the next week and a half?

I've jotted down a few of my thoughts about what would be ideal for the horses that I consider to be the main ones for the Derby.

I Want Revenge - I'd like his last work to be solid but not blazing. He has always been somewhat quick in the morning but not brilliant. The most important thing for him is the physical look, his coat, his weight etc... He has probably logged more air miles than any other Derby contender this spring. You have to make sure he is on the improve instead of getting jaded.

Quality Road - His last three workouts have been long and more moderate. Ideally I'd like to see something short and quick over the CD surface. It'll be a good signal that he's feeling good and getting over the track well. He had an extremely impressive workout before the Fountain of Youth. I'd like to see one of similar quality in this next week. I'm also really hoping this horse does not draw inside the 3 hole. Speed inside is the worst for a race like this.

Pioneerof the Nile - The DRF clockers are gushing over this horse and it's certainly a good sign to hear that a trained eye loves his morning preparations. For me I'll be demanding to see a bullet type work from him. He's a Baffert horse and that's what his race ready charges do. More importantly he worked bullets regularly on synthetics he was a brilliant workhorse in California, it would be a bad sign if he wasn't able to replicate that brilliance on dirt.

Friesan Fire - He is coming into the race the right way, at least in my opinion. Jones gave him a stiff longer work to more or less make up for the lack of a recent race. He will probably just get one more workout before the big day. I think connections will attempt to tighten the screws with a sharp workout. I expect him to go sub :59 for 5f, I won't be impressed with anything slower than that. I'll also be interested to see if they give any clues about his tactics for the Derby. He is one of those horses that could be pressed to show early speed or he might take back and simply be one of the pack.

Dunkirk - Observers at Palm Meadows are comparing him to Big Brown because of the similarity of their experience and pre-Derby preparation. The bad news for Dunkirk is that he'll have to be better than Big Brown to win this Derby. Pletcher has had an odd history with the Derby. Some of his longshots have run above themselves while the majority of his well backed contenders have finished nearer to last. For Dunkirk I think the draw matters less than almost anyone in the field. He is going to go to the back and make one run. What I'd like to see in his workouts is strong gallop outs. He made a monster move in the Florida Derby but flattened out. Horses cannot continue to accelerate like that indefinitely but the good ones sustain the momentum of the move and ride it to victory. Dunkirk needs to show that he doesn't flame out right after firing up.

Papa Clem - I was not a fan of either the timing or quality of his last workout. It was too slow to inspire confidence and too quick after his last race. I'm hoping to see much better from him in his next workout. He's a street fighter who is always going to do better in the heat of battle than the cool of the morning so a really sharp workout would be a massive plus.

Desert Party - A worrisome trend has been emerging. He had the measure of Regal Ransom for most of the spring but last time out he couldn't catch his stablemate. More recently he was just outworked by Regal Ransom. Who knows how the Dubai form will stack up against what we've seen in the US but certainly in order to have a great chance he's got to prove to be better than his stablemate.

Musket Man - He seems to fly under the radar no matter what he does. He virtually does nothing but win and he's also been a good workhorse. He has likely been able to outrun his pedigree thus far thanks to a steady series of tough works over the deep Tampa surface. Leading up to the Derby I'd expect the sharp works to continue. For the draw I wouldn't want to see him too far outside. He's is one of the many stalkers in the race and he'll probably need to be in the inside 10 posts because he doesn't have the same gate speed that some other stalkers do.

General Quarters - I might want to see him in a different race if his morning gallops continue in their current vein. Every report seems to say the same thing. He looks uncomfortable and out of sorts. He was in flying form at Churchill before the Blue Grass I'd love to see him return to that.

Chocolate Candy - I already see two black marks against him. He worked back quickly after his last race and his most recent mile work was unimpressive. Could it be that this is the synthetic horse we should all be worried about adjusting?

All Aboard

There are more than a few of us out there who have been calling for and hoping for changes to be made in racing. The NTRA looks to be on the right track with their new Safety and Integrity Alliance now Frank Stronach, the soon to be bankrupt racetrack owner and controversial choice for the champion owner at the Eclipse Awards has spoken out.

Frank may be criticized for many things but when you read the excerpt below from his recent guest commentary you have to admire what he's saying. He is publicly acknowledging that he didn't deserve the Eclipse Award this year and that changes need to be made so it doesn't happen again.

Of course this space has been trumpeting the need for standings and point based year end awards for years. It's nice to see such a massive force in the industry lending his weight in a similar direction. Will Stronach's comments change anything? No, not anytime soon but at least it's a sign that the mentality is shifting. Some will read these these comments and give the idea more consideration than they did before. This is how any major change comes about. First people have to agree that changes need to be made. Thanks to Frank Stronach for jumping on the bandwagon.

Thoroughbred Times Guest Commentary

"I believe the Eclipse Awards need to be based on a points system with a clear-cut formula. Points would be awarded to owners for races won, with low-level races (e.g., a claiming race) receiving the fewest points, while graded stakes races (e.g., Grade 1 races) would receive the highest number of points. Under such a system, owners that had smaller stables but with a large number of high-quality, championship horses would end up with more points than owners that had larger stables and a lot of low-grade wins.

A points-based formula similar to this could be easily developed and implemented for both the outstanding owner and outstanding breeder awards.

The points-based formula would be completely transparent, with the result that anyone could independently calculate the total number of points won by an owner. There would be no guessing as to who might win and no questioning afterwards why a certain owner or breeder received the award. And because the points-based formula would be pre-determined, no one could claim the process was unfair owing to the subjective views of various judges or the result of votes cast by judges with potential conflicts-of-interest. All of the inevitable human bias and favoritism that judges bring to the selection process would be stripped out, leaving nothing but hard data and quantifiable results.

This is simply one proposed method for determining the winners of the Eclipse Awards. Others may come up with a different solution—one that the entire industry can support and stand behind. If so, we should openly debate and consider all of the options for enhancing the award selection process, and we should begin the discussions now.

If our industry were to move to a points-based system such as the one I described above, then I believe the Eclipse Awards can preserve their integrity. The awards will no longer be based on mere popularity or the prevailing whims and views of a select number of judges; they will be based on tangible, indisputable yardsticks of success. In short, the Eclipse Awards can once and for all become the undisputed hallmark of success for our industry."

You Never Can Tell

Who knew that one boost racing needed was an economic bust? For a decade now we've all been distressed by the speed with which our stars have been retired. All at once the flow seems to have slowed to a trickle.

The Thoroughbred Times ran a story yesterday that noted the return of eight of the ten champions from 2008. Curlin and Big Brown are the only champs from last year who aren't set to race this year. The article goes on to mention how Champs Elysees and Red Rocks were both kept in training simply because the climate is not good for new stallions. One might even say the climate is not good even for existing stallions as we see reports of stud farms up and down the country cutting fees.

I think we all recognize that the model in this sport was upside down. It seemed to be a race to the breeding shed. Glory on the track was simply a necessary preliminary step toward the ultimate goal of producing fine looking foals. The recent sales results have been extremely poor and it has the whole breeding industry gun shy. This could be a great opportunity to shift the focus back to where it should be: On the sport of racing itself.

Benny The Bull had been retired but the decision was made to bring him out of retirement. That's big news for a sprint division that's already looking pretty good. Now Team Valor has decided to bring back King of The Roxy who had been retired after last years Carter Handicap.

We've still lost two of the biggest stars in racing with the retirements of Big Brown and Curlin but there are signs that things may be different this year. Maybe we'll get to see another Derby winner at age four or perhaps we can hold on to the few stars we actually have in the handicap division.

None of us would ever wish for a recession but there seems to be a silver lining developing for racing.

The Gift Of Racing

Kennedy's Corridor is taking a break for the holidays. My wife and I are very much looking forward to visiting family in Toronto. That makes this the last post of 2008 for me and I didn't want to sign off with a handicapping analysis of the weekly feature race. The Gift Of Racing was actually published last year but if only a few read it this year it'll be more than the fewer that read it last year. Since it says exactly what I want to say there is no sense in rewriting it.

Merry Christmas to all and a Happy New Year!

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I struggle with writing Christmas Cards, once I get past Merry Christmas and my own name I'm usually at a loss for things to say. That may surprise some given the oft verbose nature of many of my entries in this space but I have always been more about facts, observations and opinions than emotional expression.

Despite this literary handicap in the spirit of Christmas I will attempt to convey some of the things I feel blessed to have received from racing this year.

It is so very easy for the dedicated race fan to get caught up in all the issues of racing. So many areas of this sport are operated in ways that seem to defy reason, and then of course there are the tragedies that shake us all. There always seems to be things to fix about this game and while I do advocate for several grand scale changes myself I think this is a good time to put that all on the back burner and salute the things that are truly good about racing, the gifts that racing gives us on an ongoing basis.

I'm sure you are all touched in different ways by this sport and I'd love to hear about them. Here are some of the gifts that racing has provided for me.

Hope - This is my favorite aspect of racing. The fact that there is always tomorrow, there is always one more race. There is always a yearling or juvenile just itching for the chance to do what they love. We're also constantly provided with great stories of how individuals overcame the odds to achieve glory. Horse racing has a greater capacity to inspire hope among its patrons than any other sport in existence.

Beauty - This is where my punitive writing skills do my feelings the greatest injustice. How can one put to words the grace and beauty that the eye beholds. Horses themselves are beautiful creatures, horses in motion are more perfect still. "If God made anything more beautiful he kept it for himself" Unknown author.

Joy - There is nothing quite like the rush of seeing a horse you've backed financially, emotionally or both cross that wire in front. Especially if they've had to overcome the odds to do so. Deeper than that as well. I derive a good amount of joy simply from seeing others do things they love. I see this in the body language of the horses. They love it and it's hard not to get caught up in that.

The Chance To See Greatness - I think the human race is naturally intrigued by even a hint of greatness. Racing yearly affords chances to see brilliance and greatness unfold. It does not always come about nor do we always appreciate it for what it is but the chance is ever present.

The Mental Challenge - I love to be challenged and racing is the ultimate mental challenge. There are a myriad of clues that point to the eventual answer some are obvious and some perceptible only to the trained eye. No one has completely mastered this giant puzzle and no one ever truly will but there is tons of enjoyment to be had in trying.

These are the qualities of racing that will always endure no matter how frustrated we get with the lack of changes or the seeming nonsense of changes that are implemented and no matter how often we're beleaguered by tragedies. These are the gifts of racing. How lucky we are to receive them.

Small Change, Nice Bonus

One of the things I heartily support is the idea of uniformity and more information. A recent press release indicates that NYRA is making a positive step for 2009.

From the DRF:

New entry schedule beginning in 2009

The New Year will bring a new entry schedule to the New York Racing Association.

Beginning in January, NYRA will take double entries on Wednesdays for racing on Fridays and Saturdays. Entries for Sundays will be taken on Thursdays. Entries for Wednesdays will continue to be taken on Saturdays and entries for Thursdays will continue to be taken on Sundays.

There will be no entries taken on Fridays with the exception of when racing is being conducted on Mondays such as Martin Luther King Jr. Day (Jan. 19) and Presidents Day (Feb. 16).

P.J. Campo, NYRA's racing secretary, said earlier entries should enable corrected late information such as equipment or medication changes to make it into Daily Racing Form as well as get the past performances out to horseplayers sooner.

I don't know about you but it has always bugged and baffled me that some tracks can have the weekend entries up on Wednesday while others make you wait until Friday at noon. NYRA was pretty bad for not getting the entries out with morning lines until the day before the race. This change means that horseplayers will get the information quicker and the Form itself will be more accurate. Other tracks already do this and have done for years, it's nice to see NYRA on board.

Dog Days Of Winter

Feel like there is nothing going on right now? Good, it means you're paying attention. Nothing is going on. The good news is that this is driest period of the entire racing year.

Although racing action itself doesn't really pick up until after the Sunshine Millions at least January is full of Triple Crown and Eclipse Award talk. We'll have our third annual TCR Awards in this space. I look forward to seeing how the results will pan out. The TCR Awards are one of my favorite institutions of Kennedy's Corridor. They mean nothing to anyone but me and perhaps to a few of the handful who vote on them but I still feel they're the most accurate thing out there and it provides a model for how the Eclipse Awards ought to be decided.

In two years there have only been a few differences between the TCR Awards and the Eclipse Awards but I feel that the differences highlight the need for change. In 2007 the only discrepancies between the two were River's Prayer being selected over Maryfield for the Female Sprinter Award and Precious Kitten instead of Lahudood. In 2006 The Tin Man was the TCR Turf Male Award winner instead of the Eclipse choice Miesque's Approval. Circular Quay and Street Sense were also co-champions.

If you take an honest look at the records of those horses you may find cause to be slightly disgruntled with the Eclipse Award selections.

During the dog days of winter I also take some time to reflect on the year that was and more specifically my interaction with it. As with any pursuit in my life my goal is to get better and/or learn more with each passing period.

I feel like my handicapping results have been more or less the same but I have refined my approach. I get more inside the available data and virtually no information provided in the PP's is not used. I've been working on multi-race exotic betting and I've even hit a few, too bad I was only playing them virtually.

What I'm most proud of this year though is the development of the Thoroughbred Championship Power Rankings. There is nothing like them anywhere, certainly not for free anyway. Perhaps they do exist elsewhere behind the wall of some paid subscription but these are the only ratings I'm aware of. It's something I've been trying to create for years and this year I finally made the breakthrough. Even if I'm the only one who cares (which is quite likely) it makes me feel good to have accomplished something this year that I had been trying for a while.

I'm a projects kind of guy, I actually took the time to count and I've currently got 14 different racing related statistical projects on the go. I hadn't realized it was so many. I'm amazed that I find the time to work at my day job.

I also finally updated my blog into the new format. Only two years later than everyone else!

I'm not sure if anyone else out there sets goals for themselves, specifically goals related to racing but I'd encourage the practice. It gives you something to work towards and reflect upon when racing itself is not providing much stimulus.

A Collection Of Unrelated Thoughts

I was pleased and refreshed to read the transcript of the Bloodhorse Chat with Sobhy Sonbol. I wish their operation all the best. One of the most thoughtful answers he gave was in response to a query wondering what the primary goals of Zayat stables are.

Instead of goals like winning the Derby or having a horse of the year he said that essentially the goal is to own, produce and develop high level runners. Their goal for each horse is to make them the best at whatever they are best suited for. Whether that mean making them a precocious two year old, a turf miler or a dirt router. Each horse has a preference and a period when they are at their best. It is up to the connections to identify those things and make the most out of them.

You think it would be obvious but so many people assume that high priced horses need to be classic types and that precocious juveniles should automatically be saved for a 3yo campaign. Regardless of auction price some horses were cut out to be sprinters or turf horses and others were only ever going to be good 2yo's. It's nice to see connections not going for a one size fits all mentality. Even in their purchasing of horses, they're looking for good horses not necessarily good classic type horses.
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The Graded Stakes Committee had their annual meeting to decide the shape of the stakes calender and once again they seem intent on going their own direction. More G-1 stakes seems to be the result of every single meeting. Net net we always end up with more stakes races and more at higher levels every time these guys meet. This Committee and the racetracks who receive the upgrades seem to be the only people pleased with these decisions.

I have to wonder what they saw in American racing this year that made them decide that we had too few G-1 events? It seemed rather obvious to me that many of the G-1 events held in 2008 were not real G-1 level events. They weren't full of G-1 level horses.

The numerous upgrades also creates a bit of a situation for those who have point systems. All of the sudden the sprint divisions seem a bit over-weighted and because of the increased number of graded stakes in general comparisons from different years are less relevant.

Point systems are unfortunately linked to the interpretations of the Graded Stakes Committee.
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Although this weekend has some fabulous races lined up one can't help but feel that the last several weeks have been a great argument for the implementation of an off season. The Europeans have already decided their year end awards, the Canadians have begun the process and it'll be tied up shortly. Americans still have two months to go. I'm a firm believer that under the current system every race needs to be considered, including those that happen after the Breeders' Cup, but ideally we would simply change the system so the season effectively ends after the Breeders' Cup and we can get on with our championship ceremonies. By the time we get to the Eclipse Awards most people need a refresher course on the horses being considered. It's like we're afraid of building on momentum.

Blog Favorites

With Wait A While now retired the title of my official favorite horse is up for grabs. I don't often write about sentiment because on any given day I may choose to go against my favorites. Liking them doesn't make them good bets. But ultimately I feel that sentiment is what keeps many of us in the game. Losing streaks can sour anyone off of betting and injuries can quell the enjoyment of a race but old favorites keep drawing us back.

Here are some of my current favorites, I didn't list them in any particular order although I do think that Gio Ponti will take over as my official favorite.

Gio Ponti
Desert Key
Bsharpsonata
Ginger Brew
Coronet of a Baron
Vineyard Haven
Grand Adventure
Livin Lovin
Gemswick Park
Dream Rush
Tin Cup Chalice

The Best Of Racing

Last week I wrote about the biggest disappointments of the year, it's only logical to follow up with my take on the most positive aspects of the racing year. Thoroughbred Times has actually come up with a survey asking the reader to vote of their favorite aspects of the 2008 season. Instead of reinventing the wheel I will simply put my hand to answering their 25 questions.

1. Who was the best horse to race in North America in 2008?
Curlin, he accomplished the most and I don't think any horse could beat him in a dirt route.

2. Which was the best accomplishment of North American racing in 2008?
I think Zenyatta going all year without a loss against some pretty spectacular fillies. You don't see seasons as flawless as that one very often.

3. Who is your pick for outstanding owner of 2008?
IEAH Stables had a super year and despite the negative feelings many have for them it's hard to deny them this honour. Big Brown, Benny The Bull and Kip Deville are likely the most accomplished and talented trio you'll find under any ownership. Godolphin/Darley also get quite a bit of consideration but when you take the size of the operations into consideration IEAH has done better. Even Ariege and Pure Clan had great seasons for IEAH.

4. Who is your pick for outstanding trainer of 2008?
The trainer who really outperformed this year was John Sadler but I can't make him my pick because of the way he handled the steroid issue. Bobby Frankel is the guy I'd want training my horses and this year was no exception. Aside from training good horses like Ventura he also conjured G-1 wins out of frauds like First Defence and Champs Elysees. He also showed his eye for a good horse in picking out the splendid Vineyard Haven.

5. Who is your pick for outstanding jockey of 2008?
Gomez is the guy you want in a big race. Unlike some other big race jockey's he is not afraid to come from the inside.

6. Which was the best Grade 1 Breeders' Cup race?
The Mile, it was simply outstanding. Goldikova but in the most impressive performance of the year.

7. Which race included the best stretch duel?
Maybe it's because I was rooting for Colonel John but I thought the Travers was the best duel of the year. The photo was impossibly tight, I still can't believe John got his nose down.

8. Which was the best victory by a closer in 2008?
I'll go with Visionaire in the King's Bishop.

9. Which was the best front-end victory of 2008?
Vineyard Haven in the Champagne. He dealt with heavy pace pressure but still overpowered his rivals. Many of which were very good horses.

10. Which was the best winning ride of 2008?
To me the best winning rides always come when a jockey gets an inferior horse home first. Alan Garcia on Da'Tara is the best example I saw of that this year. The entire year proved that Da'Tara is not much horse. For Garcia to coax him 12f on the front end in a G-1 was quite something.

11. Who was the best turf horse to race in North America in 2008?
Goldikova, she simply sparkled.

12. Who was the best synthetic surface horse to race in North America in 2008?
Probably Zenyatta, Well Armed had good claims for it but who knows what happened to him on BC day. Zenyatta was the most accomplished on the surface and the most brilliant.

13. Who was the best gray or roan horse to race in North America in 2008?
Forever Together narrowly bests Eight Belles for me. Eight Belles was special but Forever Together put in a better season overall and she showed up when it counted.

14. Who was the best gelding to race in North America in 2008?
Commentator in a walkover.

15. Best race contested outside of North America?
The Arc de Triomphe is the perennial leader in this category. The fabulous Zarkava saw to it that the streak continues.

16. Best horse to race in 2008 based outside North America?
Zarkava was the best horse of 2008 that we never saw in North America. She was breathtaking but at the same time one always got a sense of inevitability from her races. No matter what happened up front, even when a classy horse like Goldikova set for home you always knew that Zarkava would get there.

17. Best racetrack website?
Keeneland sets the industry standard. The information they make available is second to none

18. Best U.S.-based account wagering platform?
Not really sure about this one, I don't deal with any of them so I'll abstain from voting.

19. Best U.S. racetrack simulcast area?
Again I'm not really sure about this. I haven't been to any U.S. tracks

20. Best pari-mutuel tellers?
I don't have enough to compare to. I'll give Woodbine tellers the nod. I've never had any complaints with them.

21. Best synthetic surface used for racing in North America?
Tough question I guess it all depends on how you define best. I personally think the Pro-Ride surface played very fair so I'll give it a slight advantage over all the other synthetic brands.

22. Best announcer?
Larry Collmus is the most complete announcer in North America. Tom Durkin has begun to slip in my opinion. Larry should be given his shot on the national stage, races like the Derby and Breeders' Cup would suit him nicely.

23. Which was the best broadcast of a racing event this year?
I usually say the Breeders' Cup but it was horrendous this year. The Derby broadcast was much better especially if you don't include the special red carpet segment.

24. Who is the best television analyst/reporter?
Randy Moss is the best in this category. He has things to say and he says them clearly

25. Which is the better channel dedicated to horse racing?
My vote goes to HRTV. I like many of their feature shows better.

How Do You Cope With The Off Season?

The Breeders' Cup is over and fans and handicappers all over the nation are experiencing a burnout of sorts. It's the natural lull after the euphoric high of a big event. The depth of your personal lull is often inversely related to the height of your euphoria. All that excitement can leave one feeling the need for a vacation.

Some fans and handicappers simply wonder why we race through the winter at all. I actually sympathize with that viewpoint. Racing would benefit greatly from an off season. Not only does it give horses a chance to rest but it would generate more interest when it resumes. Something like the Sunshine Millions would be a perfect launch for a new season at the end of January.

Realistically an off season is not on the cards anytime soon so we're left with the question of what to do for the next three months. Some walk away from racing entirely, the NFL, NHL, NBA and English Premier League offer enticing alternatives. I myself am a racing enthusiast first and foremost. While I do watch those other sports (especially the Premier League and NFL) I like to try and keep my finger on the pulse of racing. The winter months is where I start dedicating myself to looking at maidens and two year olds and exciting prospects who may be under the radar.

All of the promising 2yo's who either didn't make it in the summer or had some bad luck in the summer are wound tight to get a win. Everyone wants to be able to say that their horse (maybe future stakes winner) was precocious enough to win at two. Churchill, Aqueduct, Hollywood, Santa Anita and Calder are home to these maidens and not only can following them be profitable but it also gives you an excellent line on the horses who might be on the Triple Crown Trail next year. I watch a ton of video during this period and almost no horse who ends up on the Triple Crown Trail is unknown to me.

Another thing I do is assign myself a project. I've always got projects on the go from the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup 20-20 projects to the TCR and Power Rankings. Aside from minor tweaks here and there those projects are finished so my task for this off season is develop my skill and tactics for playing multi-race exotic wagers, specifically the Pick 6 and Pick 4. I'm a decent handicapper and after years of playing and self reflection I've discovered that exacta's and trifecta's are a much lower percentage proposition for me than win wagers. The best way to really capitalize strength in this area is to play multi-race exotics. It's not something I've ever seriously looked at aside from maybe a ticket at the Breeders' Cup.

Playing these types of wagers has as much to do with money management as it does handicapping. Knowing how to structure a ticket and backups is what separates the successful players and the nearly crowd who often has the right mix of horses on their losing tickets.

Major Breakthrough

In case you haven't heard there has been a major development that will greatly effect racing fans and the direction of the sport. For perhaps the first time in history a major racing organization is soliciting advice from average fans. The NTRA has requested that five well known bloggers form a panel to discuss what can be done to "engage and retain" fans.

Here is an excerpt from the press release:

"The National Thoroughbred Racing Association's Marketing Summit, to be held Sept. 21-23 at Red Rock Casino, Resort and Spa in Las Vegas, will feature a special 90-minute session on Sept. 22 called "Reaching a New Generation". The workshop will be moderated by John Della Volpe, founder and president of SocialSphere Strategies and director of polling at Harvard's Institute of Politics, and will focus on tactical strategies that racing can employ today to engage and retain new fans.

Joining Della Volpe in his presentation will be five members of a newly created NTRA online marketing task force: Dana Byerly, 42, from New York City; Jessica Chapel, 34, from Brooklyn, N.Y.;Patrick Patten, 30, from Matawan, N.J.; Troy Racki, 26 from Loma Linda, Calif.; and Kevin Stafford, 30 from Hanover, Penn. All are active bloggers, handicappers and online contributors.

"The presentation will be a living, breathing Web 2.0 collaboration with some of racing's best fans," said Della Volpe. "We have scoured the Internet for racing's most ardent supporters, then we created an online community and gave them an assignment: Develop a plan to market the sport to a new generation of fans. Over the course of about six weeks, the group will be spending dozens of hours meeting, debating, and challenging each other's assumptions -- the results of which they will present to the industry at the NTRA Marketing Summit."

Having read many of these blogs for years and being somewhat familiar with their stances on various issues I'm quite excited about the types of ideas that will be brought forward. Of course there is no guarantee that the suggestions will be implemented. But who could ask for more than an audience with powers of racing? I'm sure any racing fan would jump at the chance. It may be just the edge we need to get something like a point system implemented. It's a major step in the right direction and a huge honour for the chosen five.

Let us hope their presentation is well received and that this is not a one time opportunity.

Guest Article - More About Blood-Ex

This weekend features a first for Kennedy's Corridor. We have arranged to have Alex Zelvin write a featured article. Alex has a blog of his own called ThoroughMetrics and is the founder of ThoroughMetrics (http://www.freewebs.com/breedinganalysis), which does statistical analysis and research for the thoroughbred racing industry. I'm honoured and excited to have him as my guest.

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More About Blood-Ex

As a thoroughbred racing fanatic and a fairly serious student of financial markets, I’m looking forward to the upcoming launch of Blood-Ex, the first thoroughbred bloodstock trading exchange. I believe that this is an exciting development that is likely to bring new owners into the game, and a potential profit opportunity for those who trade wisely. Blood-Ex is set to launch in the UK sometime this summer, with expansion to the US and other countries later this year.

For those who haven’t read about Blood-Ex yet, here’s a brief summary of how it works. Owners may put up for sale shares of horses in training that meet certain criteria. Each share represents 1/150th of 1% of the horse. These shares do not carry any obligation for ongoing expenses, and do not entitle the holder to any share of the horse’s earnings on the track. When the owner puts shares up for sale, they will be required to put the horse up for auction at some point in the future, to determine the value of each share. Orders to buy and sell shares will be made on Blood-Ex just like limit orders on a stock exchange. Buying won’t cost anything, but all sales will have a 5% commission.

Along with horse racing, and financial markets, I’m also an obsessive fantasy baseball player. Last year, I participated (and finished 8th out of 4,000+ people) in a new game that used a stock market type trading mechanism. Because it was the first year the game had been run, nobody knew exactly how the ‘market’ would function. Two lessons that I learned there, that I think apply to Blood-Ex as well:

There’s no way to know exactly what will happen once trading starts, or what strategies will be successful.
Whatever happens, you’ll be in a better position to succeed if you’ve already given some thought to the possibilities prior to the start of trading.

I think the second point is especially true, because ‘immature’ or new markets are often the least efficient, and provide the greatest opportunities for profit. Once Blood-Ex has thousands of participants, including some with large sums of money available to them, the inefficiencies in the market will begin to disappear, and opportunities will be harder to find.

In the meantime, here are four things to think about as you prepare for the start of trading:

1. The 5% commission on sales is huge. It’s very possible that it will turn all short term trading strategies into losers. It should be less of an issue for those who plan to buy and hold shares. Also, it appears that you will not have to pay the commission when horses you own shares of are sold at auction. So if you’re holding shares of a valuable horse, it will generally be better to simply hang on to them until they’re sold than to sell them on Blood-Ex.

2. Most male horses end up their careers worthless as bloodstock. While trading in fillies and mares may have some resemblance to stock trading, with relatively modest price gains and losses, trading in colts and stallions is going to look like options trading…a few big winners, and a lot of 100% losses. Because of that, any long-term ‘portfolio’ of shares should hold very small positions in colts, and diversify across many of them. Because of the lower volatility, it should be ok to hold fewer, more concentrated positions of shares in fillies and mares.

3. Pay attention to the spread, or the difference between the best bid (offer to buy) and the best ask (offer to sell). Generally speaking, the spread will act as an additional transaction cost. If you want to make sure you get shares in a horse, you’ll have to make your offer to buy at a price equal to the best ask. But if you try to sell those same shares, even if the price hasn’t moved at all, you’ll need to sell them at the level of the best bid to guarantee yourself a buyer. So you’ll lose money on the round trip. That said, if you’re patient there are situations where the spread can work to your advantage. Instead of placing your buy orders at the best ask, place them just above the best bid, and wait to see if someone is willing to lower the asking price of their shares. And instead of placing your sell orders at the best bid, place them just below the best ask, and wait to see if an eager buyer is willing to pay what you’re asking. Until trading starts we really have no idea how wide the spreads on Blood-Ex are going to be. Most likely they’re going to be relatively narrow on well known horses which are actively traded. But for more obscure horses, spreads could be 15-20% of more. If that’s the case, there’s an opportunity to overcome the impact of the commission simply by placing buy orders on horses at a price just above the best big and placing sell orders on those you acquire just below the best ask. However, if you try this, you should probably not leave your orders open during the horse’s races, when the price (and perceived value) of the horse is likely to move sharply in one direction or the other.

4. Pay attention to how responsive the market is to news. Initially there may be relatively few participants, and prices may react slowly to news. This is likely to be most true for horses that aren’t stars. If you follow the news closely, you may be one of the first to learn of an injury or a particularly fast workout. Once the market has more participants, it’s likely that price moves in reaction to news will be so fast that there isn’t an opportunity for most to profit from it. One aspect of this that should be particularly interesting to see is how prices will move during the running of a race. As far as I can tell, trading in horses will not be frozen during their races, although it wouldn’t surprise me if this is done to avoid wild price swings.

Alex Zelvin

Midweek Musings

I spent this morning in the dentists chair and I'm just getting to the point where I can feel my face again. Perhaps its an after effect of the drugs but I just feel like jotting down a few random thoughts on some of the biggest current topics.

- I think IEAH has done a decent thing by stepping forward and volunteering to go off many legal drugs. It's not a cure all for racing but I think it's a nice gesture and a step in the right direction. I do hope others are encouraged to follow suit but most likely none one will until the drugs in question are made illegal.

- I have not spent much time looking for reasons to exonerate Big Brown for his flop in the Belmont Stakes. I think the majority of the excuses produced have been meaningless. I do however think that the issue with his shoe is legitimate. I'm not so much interested in figuring out why he couldn't win the Triple Crown but I am interested in what caused the flop because it may be a concern for the future. If for instance, Big Brown randomly flopped, there is a chance it could happen again and it would cast a doubt over his next races. But I am somewhat satisfied that the shoe did contribute to his downfall. It likely did not fully account for his performance but it had an impact.

- Jeremy Rose deserves what he gets, and possibly more. It was just a petulant strike at a horse he was frustrated with. You can't do that and more than that you shouldn't do that. It's more a question of ethics than rules. I do like that the stewards are holding him financially responsible for the injury treatment.

- Aspiring handicappers should check out the new Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. It's free to enter and it offers 3 qualifying places in the National Handicapping Championship in Vegas as well as a few other prizes. It will be extremely difficult to win but most other NHC qualifiers cost money to enter so this is a good place to test your mettle and decide if you've got the stuff to actually compete with the best.

Evolution Of The Blog Revolution

Blogs take many forms, some focus on horse health issues, some on lighthearted alternative content, some quantify industry happenings while others advocate for reform. I rarely write about anything aside from racing itself but on occasion I do acknowledge that there is more going on than what happens between the gate and the wire.

The blogging world is buzzing with the advent of the Paulick Report and NTRA chief Alex Waldrop's mention of one of the TBA posts and this is actually significant news.

For those who aren't aware the TBA is the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, it's a collection of active racing blogs from all over North America and the world. Some are really top class writers who are gaining clout in the industry while others are just regular Joe's who provide entertaining content. They all blend together to provide a ton of good daily reading.

Why is any of this noteworthy? It confirms what many bloggers have been feeling for some time. More than just their mothers are reading. Perhaps for the first time in history regular people, without the last names Hancock, Phipps or Gaines, have an ear with some of racings most influential people. Not everyone who has an opinion has a useful or valid opinion but on occasion the fans of racing do come with some great ideas and legitimate concerns. It's a great encouragement that for the first time in history the powers that be can at least choose to ignore the common fan. You can't really ignore something if you don't know it exists. Now that they know they'll be making a daily choice to read and act or ignore. Either way, the message is being spread and what one generation rejects the next often embraces.

Racing forums have been around for many years but blogs are a somewhat newer convention. Forums rarely catch the eye because of their format and the fact that discussion and responses make the truly salient posts harder to find. Blogs may not necessarily have better, more relevant information but at least it's provided in a concise, easy to locate manner.

I personally am not a part of the TBA but I am a faithful reader and I am quite impressed with the impact they're having. The TBA was always going to have a negligible impact on non racing fans because typically those who aren't fans aren't looking for racing blogs but they're doing their best at impacting racing from within. Organizations like the NTRA are the ones who can reach out to new fans but the TBA and independent blogs now have the power to at least table suggestions to those who have the power to make changes.

It's a great day for racing.

Breaking The Blockage

I suppose I'm suffering from something resembling writers block because it's three days past the Preakness, we have a possible Triple Crown winner and I'm stuck for good topics to write about.

I think for me personally the Kentucky Derby is more intriguing than the Triple Crown and the Breeders' Cup trumps them both. I am more about anticipation than aftermath and the Triple Crown is a lot of aftermath. There is some anticipation but less so this year. Maybe it's because it seems inevitable that Big Brown will win the Triple Crown.

Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm not enjoying Big Brown's unbelievable form. I am, in fact I think we're witnessing greatness in real time, but it's kind of like if your team is up three games to none in a best of seven series. It now seems only academic that they'll close the deal, you don't have the same sense of nervous excitement or apprehension over every face off and power play.

Big Brown is doing what everyone always believed was possible. When a good horse comes along in the midst of a poor crop he should dominate them. There is no real mystery or intrigue about that.

The Belmont will be billed as a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive but realistically Big Brown is a far better horse. Casino Drive has much to prove and despite his royal bloodlines he still has to show it on the track. From what I've seen of both of them Big Brown should handle him easily.

There has been some discussion about whether or not Big Brown is "worthy" of a Triple Crown. My contention is that there is no such thing as being worthy or not. A horse is either a Triple Crown winner or they aren't. The whole notion of worthiness is based on the feeling that whoever wins the Triple Crown ought to be a champion of champions. A horse for the ages, but realistically other than in the 70's a Triple Crown winner was not necessarily one of those. Big Brown actually could be a champion of champions but he doesn't have to be in order to win the Triple Crown.

Big Brown will win the Triple Crown if he is better than all the horses he faces in the Belmont because he has already proven to be too good for the competition in the Derby and Preakness. It really is that simple.

People need to get over their pre-conceived notions and self appointed standards of all the things a Triple Crown winner should be. It is what it is.

I'm also not one of the boo-birds that expects him to be retired right after the Belmont win or lose (but especially if he wins). That is simply baseless and overly cynical. I don't understand the need to think the worst of people or be the first to predict an unfortunate happening. It may end up being correct but it won't be because of his owners lack of sportsmanship it will be because he gets injured while prepping for a fall campaign. He is definitely getting most of the summer off and his ideal fall campaign will likely be the Travers, Woodward and BC Classic. If any injury prevents him from making the Classic in top shape he will be retired.

Again it's pretty simple and logical. There is no master Machiavellian plan to screw over race fans.

An Audience With The Boss - Part 3

Once again these are just short form ideas that I would love to be able to present to the racing authorities. Of course right now we know there is no such authority with the power to effect any change but one can dream. (Part 1, Part 2)

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Daily Irregularities

Standardize Workout Terminology – Why is a “breezing” workout on one coast a “handily” workout on the other coast?

Publish Penetrometer Readings For Turf Conditions - Why do we use the track condition labels of firm, good, soft etc…when we have penetrometers that give a numerical reading of firmness?

Set A Standard Release Time For All Entries and Morning Lines - Why are the morning line odds not released at the same time for every track? Santa Anita is notoriously slow while Keeneland is generally a full day ahead of every other track.
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Marketing

Change the Marketing Focus
The message I would want to send to the general public is that the racetrack can simply be a great place to spend a day or evening. Make it luxurious, exclusive, a place where the high life is pandered to. You don’t need to try and sell gambling. Racing is one of the most exciting sports there is. People won’t be at a racetrack too long before they start wanting to pick a horse in each race. I think if you place an emphasis on making racetracks more visitor friendly, more accommodating, more comfortable and more luxurious you make it easier to market. Also limit the amount of the product available. The most successful tracks are the ones that run short meets. Get rid of most mid-week racing and create more boutique meets. Don’t worry too much about selling the sport it’s actually the best thing we have going for us. It sells itself, what you need to sell is the experience of a day at the races.

Secure Regular Television Deal That Gives Weekly Exposure – With a more logical racing calendar in place it would be possible to card many of the graded stakes during a set time every week. The NFL has branded Sunday afternoon as its TV time slot. Racing could try to brand Saturday afternoon or whatever time slot they feel gives them the best chance. In Canada there is a cable station (The Score) that already carries Woodbine racing on Wednesday evenings and Sunday afternoons. The Score is hardly a huge station but it is part of all basic cable packages. Also their content is just Woodbine, it would be a much better show with Graded Stakes from all over the country.

Create New Jockey Silks - Racing could use some sell able merchandise aside from hats and pins. I know the tradition of silks is a longstanding one but if we changed them to something that the general public could wear we have another item to market. I personally would go with a soccer jersey type shirt. It still has the glossy look of silks, it's still light but people on the street can and do wear them. Even people who aren't interested in soccer. To make this truly fly you would likely need to look at working with an existing sporting goods manufacturer like Reebok, Diadora or Puma. Also perhaps hire some freelance designers to help owners come up with suitable or marketable designs. Not all of the new "silks" would have marketability. Obviously only those stables who have big name horses would have any draw. Of course another alternative is to keep the racing silks the same and just create soccer jersey type silks for consumer purchase.

Place An Emphasis On Fantasy Games – Fantasy Games are huge and they draw a ton of interest for other sports. Embrace that, have fantasy focus shows on TVG, get Yahoo to run a Horse Racing Fantasy game on its website. Make the prizes significant initially in order to create interest.
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Breeding

Impose A Levy On Stallion Fees For Every Book Above 40 – Most of these ideas cost money and this would be one place that we’d get it. Breeders would not be prevented from booking their stallion to more than 40 mares but they would have to pay a percentage of those fees to the Commissioners office. Sort of like what the Yankees and Red Sox do for the rest of baseball. They have the option to spend more but there is an equalization that benefits the rest of the league. Breeders make most of the money these days. Some of that money needs to find its way back into racing.
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Here is a summary of most of my main ideas for reform.

Fewer Racing Dates
Winter Break
Fewer Tracks
More Boutique Meets
Logical Stakes Schedule
Point Standings
Standard Drug Guidelines
Harsh and Enforced Penalties For Violaters
Improve Customer Service At Racetracks To Casino Standards
Free Race Replays and Past Performance Database
Increase Information Available To Handicappers
Removal of Irregularities
Market Racetracks As An Exclusive Place To Be
Brand A Specific Time That Racing Can Be Broadcast On Television
Levy On Stallion Books Over 40

Yearly meetings For The Commissioner With Racing Officials From Around The World – There are good ideas all over this globe: Europe, Dubai, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all run successful race meets. During the newly initiated off-season it would be good for the commissioner and staff to visit those places and continually glean the best and brightest ideas and technology.