So much is put into the Derby. Months of lists, charts, anticipation and analysis. It's kind of sad that it's all over in a matter of two minutes. A lot transpires on Derby day and in many cases it causes us to forget the path we took to get there. In this post I'm going to try and bring up a few interesting points of review, perhaps draw some conclusions and also evaluate my own performance with the Derby Top 10, final analysis and use of statistics with the 20-20 system.
What we learned
Big Brown is definitely the superior animal some suspected he was. When a horse really is that good he tends to be able to overcome the unconventional. Convention is for mortals.
The Derby was an easy race for Big Brown after all.
The record of rookie trainers in the Derby gets better and better.
Statistics based on arbitrary lines took yet another hit demonstrating how limited they actually are. The actual number of starts does not and has never mattered. What matters is the experience a horse gets from the starts he or she has.
The Californian's weren't that great after all. Despite the great Cushion to dirt results we saw from Zenyatta, Tiago, Gayego and Sierra Sunset it did to change the fact that the horses simply weren't as good as the bet of those running in the Derby.
Despite the fact that no horse who had their last prep on an artificial surface hit the frame I don't think it's been exposed as a bad way to go. There is a difference between what is true and the truth. What is true is that 6 of the 9 horses who had their last prep on a surface other than dirt finished in the bottom half of the field. Including 5 of the last 6. But the truth is that just one year prior the exacta was filled with horses who had their last prep on Polytrack. The truth is that it's horse specific. Running on an all weather surface doesn't make your good horse bad, but what it does do is make it harder to see a horses real merit on dirt.
Other than Big Brown, Eight Belles and perhaps Tale of Ekati we didn't learn how good any of these horses really are. We learned how good some of them aren't but the Derby rarely reflects the actual upper level of a horse's ability.
All along we've been saying that the crop is slow and the derby did little to change that perception. Big Brown is definitely an exception but the rest of the colts are not very fast as this stage.
Once again we see that tactical speed has an enormous advantage in the Derby. Big Brown and Eight Belles both had the speed to put themselves right where they needed to be while Denis of Cork and Colonel John needed a pace setup and luck with weaving through the field. We mention this every year
Derby Top 10 accountability
You can read the entire Derby Top 10 here (Derby Top 10). The final list was definitely better than the first list. Big Brown was ranked second and Eight Belles was ranked fourth. Denis of Cork nor Tale Of Ekati were included. At one time or another Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork were ranked as high as third and second respectively but poor results saw them dropped altogether.
My first Top 10 of 2008 had Tale of Ekati ranked third but none of the top three finishers were included. Only five of the those Top 10 even ran in the Derby. For the most accurate listing I should have stopped on April 1st. At that time I had Denis of Cork in second, Big Brown in fifth and Eight Belles in tenth. That was the only week that all three of them were listed in my Top 10.
Overall I'd say my Derby Top 10 performance was poor. I'm a skeptic by nature so I'm not quick to jump on horses like Big Brown and I'm also quick to give up on horses that I perceive as failures. Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati were both highly thought of at one point in the spring and both were eliminated after single poor performances.
Derby 20-20 Roundup
The top ranked horse didn't win so was the 20-20 a failure? My estimation is no it was not and here a few reasons why.
There were no perfect qualifiers so right off the top one had to assume that the Derby was not going to be as easy as betting on the top ranked qualifier. The 548.89% ROI gleaned from betting only the perfect qualifiers stayed in tact. (By the way you can view the updated results of the 20-20 system here)
Big Brown was the second ranked contender and Eight Belles was co-third ranked. An exacta box on the top 5 contenders according to the 20-20 system paid off for the second year in a row, and had you followed that system since 1996 you would have made a 60.51% profit.
Much of the media are going to hold up Big Brown as yet another "rule breaker". Proof that statistics don't work and yet I don't see that at all. All the supposed "rules" he broke had to do with experience yet the 20-20 system claimed that his experience was sufficient. What he lacked was fitness. He failed to have two preps around two turns and his closing fractions in the Florida Derby were just a bit too slow.
What Big Brown did show is that good horses in weak fields can overcome these aspects. I think his lack of preps at two turns was still a negative but for a horse that good compared to his competition it doesn't matter.
Going forward I see few if any changes needed to the 20-20 system. I think it performed quite well. I may work on refining the average closing fraction calculations. Big Brown apparently didn't close his last race fast enough but that was based on an average that included preps on All Weather surfaces which were significantly faster because of the pace scenarios. Perhaps fractions earned on All Weather surfaces will have to be calculated separately.
I'm also interested in incorporating Thoro-Graph Sheet Figures as another speed calculation. I have back data and it looks very good but the problem is that they don't provide any of these figures for free and I'm not sold on paying their prices for a hobby system.
In the end I still very much believe that statistics are a useful tool in determining the Derby outcome.
Personal Derby Handicapping
After all the analysis and statistics did I actually come up with the right horse? No, unfortunately I went for Colonel John and Eight Belles on top. But overall I did think that I was on the right track. I did not use Big Brown in the straight win pool but I did use him in the exotics over my keys and other contenders. I went against Big Brown for the win but I still respected him greatly. I also liked Denis of Cork among a few others to hit the frame and my overall projection of the pace turned out to be correct. I feel like I was on the right track but just missed because I wanted to get fancy and drop the favorite. My overall handicapping performance was good but not great.
Showing posts with label Derby Top 10 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Derby Top 10 2008. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - April 22nd
1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (2)
3. Smooth Air (3)
4. Eight Belles (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Court Vision (7)
7. Pyro (9)
8. Monba (10)
9. Cowboy Cal (new)
10. Bob Black Jack (new)
This will be my final Derby Top 10 for this year and what a year it's been. There has been uncertainty for much of the spring and that won't be cleared up until the horses cross the line in the Derby. It might be as simple as Big Brown being better than everyone else. His trainer certainly thinks he is and now with War Pass and Massive Drama out of the race the pace edge may fall to him. Or perhaps it is as simple as rooting for the most well rounded Derby contender, which is certainly Colonel John. He has the look of a Derby winner, physically, mentally and his running style. It's too bad the surface question is still looming. I think the surface is also to blame for his low speed figures. Outside the top two I think it is anyone's race. I can certainly envision a scenario where both Colonel John and Big Brown are defeated although I believe that at least one of them if not both will be in the frame. Smooth Air is the first on the list of logical alternatives. He is not a brilliant horse but I adore the way he is training. Forget what breeding he may or may not have. He is virtually the only horse in the race who is having significant stamina built into him. Some horses will rely on their pedigree to get the extra ground. Smooth Air will be relying on the fitness he's recieved from his workouts. Eight Belles is a bit of a mystery horse but I have to rank her this high because of what she may be capable of. If the form she has showed against fillies translates in the Derby she will be a very tough horse to beat and might even be key to defeating Big Brown. The longer he stays on the lead the more courageous he'll get. Eight Belles has the speed to attack him earlier than most. Z Fortune is a horse I thought the world of early in the year but cooled on after he flopped in the Rebel. His Arkansas Derby won me back to his side though and I expect a huge run from him. I think he's a horse I'll use all over my tickets. Court Vision may be a slow plodder who even failed to make up significant ground on the Wood horses who were crawling home but he does have a touch of class about him and I fear any horse who really wakes up in their works, especially after arriving at Churchill. He's better as a play underneath but he does have a great chance of at least hitting the superfecta. Pyro is a total question mark. I won't use him on top and I may not use him at all but you have to respect what he was able to do on the dirt. I don't like the fact that he didn't get much from his last prep but I do think that a return to his best beats at least half this field. Monba is another horse I'd use underneath if the price was right. I suspect he prefers Polytrack despite a prior win over the surface. Cowboy Cal has been added to the Derby Top 10 after spending the year on the radar list. I'm not convinced he's a dirt horse but I do fear the "other Pletcher" angle with him. In fact if Big Brown is to win the Derby I suspect Cowboy Cal will be in the frame. Big Brown has his best chance of winning if the pace is moderate and Cowboy Cal is the kind of horse who would just love to clip off a steady pace. He'll keep trying all the way to the line. While I think he isn't quite good enough to win he is a real exacta threat if things go his way. Bob Black Jack is the final horse in my top 10. There are few things to dislike about him, most notably the fact that in both of his route races he got passed in the lane. I'm also not hyped over the fact that his best lifetime performance to date came in a 6f race. But you have to acknowledge that Californians have been doing exceptionally well when travelling out of state. I like that he rated well in his last race and was able to finish rather quickly. He doesn't need to love the distance to hit the frame and I think he is the kind of horse who will either run way above expectations or run near last. I prefer him to Gayego among the Californians. I think Gayego has run his best race. If you'd like to read the entire Top 10 from this year you can do that by clicking here.
Dropped: Atoned (6), Tomcito (8)
1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (2)
3. Smooth Air (3)
4. Eight Belles (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Court Vision (7)
7. Pyro (9)
8. Monba (10)
9. Cowboy Cal (new)
10. Bob Black Jack (new)
This will be my final Derby Top 10 for this year and what a year it's been. There has been uncertainty for much of the spring and that won't be cleared up until the horses cross the line in the Derby. It might be as simple as Big Brown being better than everyone else. His trainer certainly thinks he is and now with War Pass and Massive Drama out of the race the pace edge may fall to him. Or perhaps it is as simple as rooting for the most well rounded Derby contender, which is certainly Colonel John. He has the look of a Derby winner, physically, mentally and his running style. It's too bad the surface question is still looming. I think the surface is also to blame for his low speed figures. Outside the top two I think it is anyone's race. I can certainly envision a scenario where both Colonel John and Big Brown are defeated although I believe that at least one of them if not both will be in the frame. Smooth Air is the first on the list of logical alternatives. He is not a brilliant horse but I adore the way he is training. Forget what breeding he may or may not have. He is virtually the only horse in the race who is having significant stamina built into him. Some horses will rely on their pedigree to get the extra ground. Smooth Air will be relying on the fitness he's recieved from his workouts. Eight Belles is a bit of a mystery horse but I have to rank her this high because of what she may be capable of. If the form she has showed against fillies translates in the Derby she will be a very tough horse to beat and might even be key to defeating Big Brown. The longer he stays on the lead the more courageous he'll get. Eight Belles has the speed to attack him earlier than most. Z Fortune is a horse I thought the world of early in the year but cooled on after he flopped in the Rebel. His Arkansas Derby won me back to his side though and I expect a huge run from him. I think he's a horse I'll use all over my tickets. Court Vision may be a slow plodder who even failed to make up significant ground on the Wood horses who were crawling home but he does have a touch of class about him and I fear any horse who really wakes up in their works, especially after arriving at Churchill. He's better as a play underneath but he does have a great chance of at least hitting the superfecta. Pyro is a total question mark. I won't use him on top and I may not use him at all but you have to respect what he was able to do on the dirt. I don't like the fact that he didn't get much from his last prep but I do think that a return to his best beats at least half this field. Monba is another horse I'd use underneath if the price was right. I suspect he prefers Polytrack despite a prior win over the surface. Cowboy Cal has been added to the Derby Top 10 after spending the year on the radar list. I'm not convinced he's a dirt horse but I do fear the "other Pletcher" angle with him. In fact if Big Brown is to win the Derby I suspect Cowboy Cal will be in the frame. Big Brown has his best chance of winning if the pace is moderate and Cowboy Cal is the kind of horse who would just love to clip off a steady pace. He'll keep trying all the way to the line. While I think he isn't quite good enough to win he is a real exacta threat if things go his way. Bob Black Jack is the final horse in my top 10. There are few things to dislike about him, most notably the fact that in both of his route races he got passed in the lane. I'm also not hyped over the fact that his best lifetime performance to date came in a 6f race. But you have to acknowledge that Californians have been doing exceptionally well when travelling out of state. I like that he rated well in his last race and was able to finish rather quickly. He doesn't need to love the distance to hit the frame and I think he is the kind of horse who will either run way above expectations or run near last. I prefer him to Gayego among the Californians. I think Gayego has run his best race. If you'd like to read the entire Top 10 from this year you can do that by clicking here.
Dropped: Atoned (6), Tomcito (8)
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - April 15th
1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (4)
3. Smooth Air (5)
4. Eight Belles (6)
5. Z Fortune (new)
6. Atoned (7)
7. Court Vision (9)
8. Tomcito (10)
9. Pyro (2)
10. Monba (new)
The last weekend of major prep races sure threw a wrench in the mix. I, like most people, figured that Pyro would run well run even if he didn't win, that this was just a formality to get him in shape for the Derby. It was anything but and now his connections are even admitting that he likely didn't get much out of the race. The same has to go for Cool Coal Man and Big Truck, none of them ran a step. I am completely at peace with the notion that they didn't handle the track but what worries me is the blown chance to build fitness and endurance. All three of those horses should bounce back to form once they get back on real dirt but we need them to improve their old form not simply run back to their previous 3yo top. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck have been dropped because of this. Pyro stays on the list only because a return to his best form would put him right in the hunt and I think he has more class than the others. It will be interesting to see how these horses work given that they likely got nothing out of the Blue Grass. Perhaps Asmussen should ring up Bernie Stutts and ask to work Pyro with Smooth Air. The trusty little Smooth Air worked another quick mile at Calder. Make no mistake, this will be one of the fittest horses in the Derby. He moves up to third nearly by default and while he does not exactly have a classic winners profile he is quickly becoming one of the most solid contenders and may well be the best value on Derby day. Smooth Air reminds me of a Funny Cide type of horse, I fully expect him to run a huge race at Churchill. Visionaire ran the best race of the established horses in the Blue Grass but I'm dropping him as well. He didn't seem to handle the track too badly he just didn't have enough kick to get near the leaders. His breeding is already slightly suspect and I this in my opinion was a pivotal race for him, he failed and so I don't think of him as one of the top 10 Derby prospects. Monba returns to the list for the first time since the Fountain Of Youth. I had great faith in him at one point and the Blue Grass was encouraging but I suspect that despite his win he has not gotten as much of this spring as he should have. The Arkansas Derby was a very good race but it didn't sell me on Gayego. He is a nice and classy horse but much like Came Home I think he will struggle to get the distance on Derby day. Z Fortune ran a big race and improved, which is key. I don't like the way he hung. He's done it in both his races at Oaklawn. He looked to be mounting a serious challenge but then just levelled off. I suspect he had more to give and I hope they work out that issue in the mornings maybe with some works in company. Hopefully we'll see him give it all on Derby day. Cowboy Cal is on the radar in case Tomcito or Atoned bomb in the Lexington or if one of these other top 8 pull out for whatever reason. He is the only other horse aside from these top 10 that I'd put money on. Because of the repeatedly wacky results and the host of uninspiring performances I am open to the notion that on any given day nearly any horse could beat all the others. But I'm still going to stick on the side of the averages. I'll hope that if we do get a bomb it will be one of those under appreciated but still partly logical horses. Next week will be the last for the Derby top 10, by then all the significant preps will have been run. Tomcito and Atoned are both horses I think well of and I'm hoping they justify my belief in the Lexington. They'll need to if they want to be in the Derby.
On the radar: Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Cool Coal Man (3), Visionaire (8), Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (4)
3. Smooth Air (5)
4. Eight Belles (6)
5. Z Fortune (new)
6. Atoned (7)
7. Court Vision (9)
8. Tomcito (10)
9. Pyro (2)
10. Monba (new)
The last weekend of major prep races sure threw a wrench in the mix. I, like most people, figured that Pyro would run well run even if he didn't win, that this was just a formality to get him in shape for the Derby. It was anything but and now his connections are even admitting that he likely didn't get much out of the race. The same has to go for Cool Coal Man and Big Truck, none of them ran a step. I am completely at peace with the notion that they didn't handle the track but what worries me is the blown chance to build fitness and endurance. All three of those horses should bounce back to form once they get back on real dirt but we need them to improve their old form not simply run back to their previous 3yo top. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck have been dropped because of this. Pyro stays on the list only because a return to his best form would put him right in the hunt and I think he has more class than the others. It will be interesting to see how these horses work given that they likely got nothing out of the Blue Grass. Perhaps Asmussen should ring up Bernie Stutts and ask to work Pyro with Smooth Air. The trusty little Smooth Air worked another quick mile at Calder. Make no mistake, this will be one of the fittest horses in the Derby. He moves up to third nearly by default and while he does not exactly have a classic winners profile he is quickly becoming one of the most solid contenders and may well be the best value on Derby day. Smooth Air reminds me of a Funny Cide type of horse, I fully expect him to run a huge race at Churchill. Visionaire ran the best race of the established horses in the Blue Grass but I'm dropping him as well. He didn't seem to handle the track too badly he just didn't have enough kick to get near the leaders. His breeding is already slightly suspect and I this in my opinion was a pivotal race for him, he failed and so I don't think of him as one of the top 10 Derby prospects. Monba returns to the list for the first time since the Fountain Of Youth. I had great faith in him at one point and the Blue Grass was encouraging but I suspect that despite his win he has not gotten as much of this spring as he should have. The Arkansas Derby was a very good race but it didn't sell me on Gayego. He is a nice and classy horse but much like Came Home I think he will struggle to get the distance on Derby day. Z Fortune ran a big race and improved, which is key. I don't like the way he hung. He's done it in both his races at Oaklawn. He looked to be mounting a serious challenge but then just levelled off. I suspect he had more to give and I hope they work out that issue in the mornings maybe with some works in company. Hopefully we'll see him give it all on Derby day. Cowboy Cal is on the radar in case Tomcito or Atoned bomb in the Lexington or if one of these other top 8 pull out for whatever reason. He is the only other horse aside from these top 10 that I'd put money on. Because of the repeatedly wacky results and the host of uninspiring performances I am open to the notion that on any given day nearly any horse could beat all the others. But I'm still going to stick on the side of the averages. I'll hope that if we do get a bomb it will be one of those under appreciated but still partly logical horses. Next week will be the last for the Derby top 10, by then all the significant preps will have been run. Tomcito and Atoned are both horses I think well of and I'm hoping they justify my belief in the Lexington. They'll need to if they want to be in the Derby.
On the radar: Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Cool Coal Man (3), Visionaire (8), Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - April 7th
1. Colonel John (4)
2. Pyro (1)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Big Brown (5)
5. Smooth Air (6)
6. Eight Belles (10)
7. Atoned (new)
8. Visionaire (new)
9. Court Vision (8)
10. Tomcito (new)
In my original Derby Top 10 for 2008 I had Colonel John ranked second behind War Pass and had this to say about him "Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest (behind War Pass), the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease." Colonel John has put it all together and has finally fulfilled that promise in my eyes at least. He is my new #1 Derby horse, War Pass and Pyro are the only other horses who have been given the top spot. I really loved the performance by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Not everything went smoothly for him but he showed his class and toughness to get the job done. I was also very impressed with him physically. He looked like a man among boys in the paddock, he has a very regal build and looks every inch a classic horse. In my opinion he is the most complete Derby contender out there at the moment. The one issue that is a slight concern is that he has never run on dirt but realistically he'll either like it or he won't. Having previously run on it is not an advantage from the horse's perspective. All it does is make his backers more nervous. Truth be told there will be plenty of horses on Derby day who won't care for the track. Colonel John seems as if he'll handle dirt well. Some are also nervous about the fact that his highest lifetime Beyer figure is 95. That would make him the "slowest" winner ever but I've always said that a horse only needs to be "fast enough" to beat the horses their facing and a 95 is definitely good enough to beat this group. I also suspect (as I have since the figures were made) that all the figures on All Weather surfaces are lower than the equivalents on dirt. Beyer should probably not even be making figures for Santa Anita because they have not had enough time to establish proper pars for this new surface. Pyro drops to second but has every chance to get back on top with a good race in the Bluegrass. He'll be facing Cool Coal Man and Visionaire in what promises to be one of the most important preps of the spring. Cool Coal Man is very much under the radar but I have him as the #3 Derby contender at this point. He has not done a thing wrong and has just as much chance as anyone of improving. Eight Belles moved up the ranking sharply and would likely be in the top 5 if not for the doubt over her participation. This filly is fast, quick and has the heart to gut it out if need be. She's a very good Derby candidate, I only hope she runs here. Atoned has to seem like an odd selection. He was not in my list last week and now after a 4th place finish he is in the top 10 and he's ranked over Visionaire. Basically I think Atoned is going to be sitting on a huge race, maybe not a winning performance but at this stage I don't think anyone is still realistically looking for 10 different winners. Many of the horses on the list simply have a good chance to hit the frame. I expected Atoned to either run second again in Illinois or regress, the former would not have been a great sign in terms of him breaking out of his losing slump but a bad race can be just the thing. He'll need some help to get in the Derby but he's very live if he runs. Court Vision had every chance to catch the front runners in the Wood and he couldn't. He isn't fast enough and while I do expect him to be coming in the final furlong I think he'll be too far back to matter. Third or Fourth in the Derby look to be his most realistic targets. I've added Tomcito because of the news that he's headed to the Lexington. I didn't think that his Florida Derby performance was good enough to set him up for the Derby but an improved effort in the Lexington might be just what he needs. Remember horses like Charismatic and Proud Citizen both were less than stellar in one of the big 5 preps then came to life in Lexington. I have dropped all the Wood Memorial horses aside from Court Vision because I intensely disliked the race. I think that was the best we can expect from War Pass and it's no where near good enough to win. Tale of Ekati and War Pass will both struggle to get the Derby distance. As will El Gato Malo as I've suspected all spring. He ran like a miler, is bred to be a miler and is built like a miler. It's no great surprise that he turned out to be one. Denis of Cork was left in shambles after the Illinois Derby and I don't expect to see him at Churchill. Recapturetheglory is a horse I'd strenuously oppose, he looks like cheap speed from top to bottom.
On the radar: Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
Dropped: Denis Of Cork (2), El Gato Malo (7), War Pass (9)
1. Colonel John (4)
2. Pyro (1)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Big Brown (5)
5. Smooth Air (6)
6. Eight Belles (10)
7. Atoned (new)
8. Visionaire (new)
9. Court Vision (8)
10. Tomcito (new)
In my original Derby Top 10 for 2008 I had Colonel John ranked second behind War Pass and had this to say about him "Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest (behind War Pass), the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease." Colonel John has put it all together and has finally fulfilled that promise in my eyes at least. He is my new #1 Derby horse, War Pass and Pyro are the only other horses who have been given the top spot. I really loved the performance by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Not everything went smoothly for him but he showed his class and toughness to get the job done. I was also very impressed with him physically. He looked like a man among boys in the paddock, he has a very regal build and looks every inch a classic horse. In my opinion he is the most complete Derby contender out there at the moment. The one issue that is a slight concern is that he has never run on dirt but realistically he'll either like it or he won't. Having previously run on it is not an advantage from the horse's perspective. All it does is make his backers more nervous. Truth be told there will be plenty of horses on Derby day who won't care for the track. Colonel John seems as if he'll handle dirt well. Some are also nervous about the fact that his highest lifetime Beyer figure is 95. That would make him the "slowest" winner ever but I've always said that a horse only needs to be "fast enough" to beat the horses their facing and a 95 is definitely good enough to beat this group. I also suspect (as I have since the figures were made) that all the figures on All Weather surfaces are lower than the equivalents on dirt. Beyer should probably not even be making figures for Santa Anita because they have not had enough time to establish proper pars for this new surface. Pyro drops to second but has every chance to get back on top with a good race in the Bluegrass. He'll be facing Cool Coal Man and Visionaire in what promises to be one of the most important preps of the spring. Cool Coal Man is very much under the radar but I have him as the #3 Derby contender at this point. He has not done a thing wrong and has just as much chance as anyone of improving. Eight Belles moved up the ranking sharply and would likely be in the top 5 if not for the doubt over her participation. This filly is fast, quick and has the heart to gut it out if need be. She's a very good Derby candidate, I only hope she runs here. Atoned has to seem like an odd selection. He was not in my list last week and now after a 4th place finish he is in the top 10 and he's ranked over Visionaire. Basically I think Atoned is going to be sitting on a huge race, maybe not a winning performance but at this stage I don't think anyone is still realistically looking for 10 different winners. Many of the horses on the list simply have a good chance to hit the frame. I expected Atoned to either run second again in Illinois or regress, the former would not have been a great sign in terms of him breaking out of his losing slump but a bad race can be just the thing. He'll need some help to get in the Derby but he's very live if he runs. Court Vision had every chance to catch the front runners in the Wood and he couldn't. He isn't fast enough and while I do expect him to be coming in the final furlong I think he'll be too far back to matter. Third or Fourth in the Derby look to be his most realistic targets. I've added Tomcito because of the news that he's headed to the Lexington. I didn't think that his Florida Derby performance was good enough to set him up for the Derby but an improved effort in the Lexington might be just what he needs. Remember horses like Charismatic and Proud Citizen both were less than stellar in one of the big 5 preps then came to life in Lexington. I have dropped all the Wood Memorial horses aside from Court Vision because I intensely disliked the race. I think that was the best we can expect from War Pass and it's no where near good enough to win. Tale of Ekati and War Pass will both struggle to get the Derby distance. As will El Gato Malo as I've suspected all spring. He ran like a miler, is bred to be a miler and is built like a miler. It's no great surprise that he turned out to be one. Denis of Cork was left in shambles after the Illinois Derby and I don't expect to see him at Churchill. Recapturetheglory is a horse I'd strenuously oppose, he looks like cheap speed from top to bottom.
On the radar: Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
Dropped: Denis Of Cork (2), El Gato Malo (7), War Pass (9)
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - April 1st
1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Big Brown (new)
6. Smooth Air (new)
7. El Gato Malo (7)
8. Court Vision (8)
9. War Pass (9)
10. Eight Belles (10)
It is now the beginning of April. For fans of the Derby Trail April is the most exciting month. May is when it all culminates but April is when the fever reaches it's zenith, very often the anticipation of an event is a greater source of joy and excitement than the actual event. For many people that will be true of the Derby, depending on who wins. Everyone wants to see a "champion" win the race. It's a bit of a self fulfilling prophesy because the Derby winner is automatically given exalted status but fans truly want to see greatness portrayed in what is still considered by some to be the greatest race in the world. That is why we have all sat on the edge of our seats this spring waiting to be wowed and amazed. We're waiting for something to believe in. For many people the Florida Derby was the coming of the Messiah. At long last we had a horse run a triple digit Beyer speed figure in a prep race. What's more he did it in his third lifetime start from a post position that seemed to be the kiss of death. Big Brown has become the sole or joint favorite with Pyro almost overnight. There is no question that he ran the best race by any three year old to date. But now we have to deal with the question of how he'll do in the Derby. As you can see by my top 10 list above Big Brown is ranked only 5th. does that mean I was not impressed by his Florida Derby? No, I was very impressed but it does mean that I have a few doubts about him repeating the feat in 5 weeks. The 3 career starts is not a big issue for me, I think he has the experience he needs from the races he's run. He has already shown the requisite speed and class. His form is beyond repute and there are no holes to pick in his breeding. The two questions I have about him have to do with his fitness and his suitability to the specific challenges of the Derby. On the subject of his fitness it is no secret that this horse has been, and to some extent still is, battling some foot issues. You cannot afford to lose time for the next 5 weeks no matter how good you are. Empire Maker fans learned that lesson. The other issue related to his fitness that I have is in regards to his light prep schedule. He has just had one prep around two turns and I honestly feel that will be a significant factor. He does not have a solid base of stamina from the body of work he has put in. The other issue I have with him is his suitability based on his running style. A horse can wire the Derby but if War Pass enters the race it will become much harder. Can Big Brown win the Derby despite these disadvantages? Most definitely yes, but they do cause me to be more cautious and I'm giving a few others above him the benefit of the doubt until they run their last prep race. The top 5 horses on this list are really the only ones that I still give a winning chance to. The bottom 5 and the radar are more the horses with an outside chance to win but more realistically they have a chance to hit the board. The best of them at this stage is Smooth Air. He is emerging as a very solid and classy horse. Not really brilliant enough to win on paper but very often the Derby has gone to a horse who did not seem brilliant before hand. I love the way he has been handled and trained and although he is not really bred for 10f I think that in 5 weeks he will run the best race of his life. Stutts has done a fabulous job of building stamina into him and this horse always tries 100%. Big Brown is a much better horse but I consider Smooth Air more likely to run his best race on Derby Day than Big Brown, the only problem is that we know Big Browns best race is good enough to win while Smooth Air's best race may just be for second. My Pal Charlie was also added to the radar on the back of his excellent works in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. He looks like he's getting good at the right time and he's worth keeping a close eye on. Elysium Fields and Tomcito were both dropped because of their performances in the Florida Derby. Tomcito simply was no where near good enough and Elysium Fields nearly got heatstroke. He might be a very good one later on but that does it for him and the Derby. Poor Georgie Boy has been dropped with the news of an injury that will keep him out of the Derby. I feel badly for the connections, he is a cool horse and the Derby would have been better with him in the race. These next two weeks will all but decide how the pre-Derby pundits summarize and rank the contenders. The last prep for any horse is, in my opinion, by far the most important race. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, it should be fun watching it all unfold.
On the radar: Visionaire, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
Dropped: Elysium Fields (5), Georgie Boy (6), Tomcito
1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Big Brown (new)
6. Smooth Air (new)
7. El Gato Malo (7)
8. Court Vision (8)
9. War Pass (9)
10. Eight Belles (10)
It is now the beginning of April. For fans of the Derby Trail April is the most exciting month. May is when it all culminates but April is when the fever reaches it's zenith, very often the anticipation of an event is a greater source of joy and excitement than the actual event. For many people that will be true of the Derby, depending on who wins. Everyone wants to see a "champion" win the race. It's a bit of a self fulfilling prophesy because the Derby winner is automatically given exalted status but fans truly want to see greatness portrayed in what is still considered by some to be the greatest race in the world. That is why we have all sat on the edge of our seats this spring waiting to be wowed and amazed. We're waiting for something to believe in. For many people the Florida Derby was the coming of the Messiah. At long last we had a horse run a triple digit Beyer speed figure in a prep race. What's more he did it in his third lifetime start from a post position that seemed to be the kiss of death. Big Brown has become the sole or joint favorite with Pyro almost overnight. There is no question that he ran the best race by any three year old to date. But now we have to deal with the question of how he'll do in the Derby. As you can see by my top 10 list above Big Brown is ranked only 5th. does that mean I was not impressed by his Florida Derby? No, I was very impressed but it does mean that I have a few doubts about him repeating the feat in 5 weeks. The 3 career starts is not a big issue for me, I think he has the experience he needs from the races he's run. He has already shown the requisite speed and class. His form is beyond repute and there are no holes to pick in his breeding. The two questions I have about him have to do with his fitness and his suitability to the specific challenges of the Derby. On the subject of his fitness it is no secret that this horse has been, and to some extent still is, battling some foot issues. You cannot afford to lose time for the next 5 weeks no matter how good you are. Empire Maker fans learned that lesson. The other issue related to his fitness that I have is in regards to his light prep schedule. He has just had one prep around two turns and I honestly feel that will be a significant factor. He does not have a solid base of stamina from the body of work he has put in. The other issue I have with him is his suitability based on his running style. A horse can wire the Derby but if War Pass enters the race it will become much harder. Can Big Brown win the Derby despite these disadvantages? Most definitely yes, but they do cause me to be more cautious and I'm giving a few others above him the benefit of the doubt until they run their last prep race. The top 5 horses on this list are really the only ones that I still give a winning chance to. The bottom 5 and the radar are more the horses with an outside chance to win but more realistically they have a chance to hit the board. The best of them at this stage is Smooth Air. He is emerging as a very solid and classy horse. Not really brilliant enough to win on paper but very often the Derby has gone to a horse who did not seem brilliant before hand. I love the way he has been handled and trained and although he is not really bred for 10f I think that in 5 weeks he will run the best race of his life. Stutts has done a fabulous job of building stamina into him and this horse always tries 100%. Big Brown is a much better horse but I consider Smooth Air more likely to run his best race on Derby Day than Big Brown, the only problem is that we know Big Browns best race is good enough to win while Smooth Air's best race may just be for second. My Pal Charlie was also added to the radar on the back of his excellent works in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. He looks like he's getting good at the right time and he's worth keeping a close eye on. Elysium Fields and Tomcito were both dropped because of their performances in the Florida Derby. Tomcito simply was no where near good enough and Elysium Fields nearly got heatstroke. He might be a very good one later on but that does it for him and the Derby. Poor Georgie Boy has been dropped with the news of an injury that will keep him out of the Derby. I feel badly for the connections, he is a cool horse and the Derby would have been better with him in the race. These next two weeks will all but decide how the pre-Derby pundits summarize and rank the contenders. The last prep for any horse is, in my opinion, by far the most important race. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, it should be fun watching it all unfold.
On the radar: Visionaire, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie
Dropped: Elysium Fields (5), Georgie Boy (6), Tomcito
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - March 25th
1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Elysium Fields (5)
6. Georgie Boy (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Court Vision (9)
9. War Pass (10)
10. Eight Belles (new)
Not many changes this week aside from the enforced dropping of Sierra Sunset. He looked like a decent prospect but injury unfortunately eliminated him from Derby consideration. Thankfully we've had very few injuries this year, just Sierra Sunset, Crown Of Thorns and Into Mischief among the major contenders. Eight Belles makes her debut in the top 10 and the way her connections are looking she might even test the boys before the derby. Her Beyer Speed Figures are right in line if not a bit superior to the colts numbers and visually there are very few holes you can see in her. She is nice sized filly with very good tactical speed and a nice turn of foot. She seems to do everything easily and has become a real monster as a 3yo among her peers. The biggest change in her was probably maturity but it is worth noting she she has always done better when stalking the pace closely. they've taken her back a bit further in 3 of her lifetime starts and she did not fare as well in any of them. Given the fact that most contenders are late runners this year, good tactical speed is a handy weapon. She still has much to prove though and the Arkansas Derby might be a good idea, just so they get a little taste of what they're up against. The stakes races run at Turfway this past weekend will have little to no impact on the Derby. Some of the entrants like Halo Najib might end up in the Derby gate but they won't impact the race. Adriano is an impressive horse visually but dirt remains a significant question mark as does his temperament on big race days. I'm really looking forward to the Florida Derby. I think some nice contenders will emerge from that race. Big Brown is being tipped by many for super stardom. I still do not have him in the top 10 because of his lack of experience. Talent can trump experience but I want to see his talent on display against some worthy adversaries before I proclaim him this years version of Curlin. Tomcito would seem to have a similar chance of proclaiming himself to be something special but we have to wait and see with him. Elysium Fields may actually get overlooked just a bit but for us he is the most solid Derby contender in the Florida Derby. I'd love to see him take the next step forward and really show that he's up to taking on Pyro and Denis Of Cork.
On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck
Dropped: Sierra Sunset (6)
1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Elysium Fields (5)
6. Georgie Boy (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Court Vision (9)
9. War Pass (10)
10. Eight Belles (new)
Not many changes this week aside from the enforced dropping of Sierra Sunset. He looked like a decent prospect but injury unfortunately eliminated him from Derby consideration. Thankfully we've had very few injuries this year, just Sierra Sunset, Crown Of Thorns and Into Mischief among the major contenders. Eight Belles makes her debut in the top 10 and the way her connections are looking she might even test the boys before the derby. Her Beyer Speed Figures are right in line if not a bit superior to the colts numbers and visually there are very few holes you can see in her. She is nice sized filly with very good tactical speed and a nice turn of foot. She seems to do everything easily and has become a real monster as a 3yo among her peers. The biggest change in her was probably maturity but it is worth noting she she has always done better when stalking the pace closely. they've taken her back a bit further in 3 of her lifetime starts and she did not fare as well in any of them. Given the fact that most contenders are late runners this year, good tactical speed is a handy weapon. She still has much to prove though and the Arkansas Derby might be a good idea, just so they get a little taste of what they're up against. The stakes races run at Turfway this past weekend will have little to no impact on the Derby. Some of the entrants like Halo Najib might end up in the Derby gate but they won't impact the race. Adriano is an impressive horse visually but dirt remains a significant question mark as does his temperament on big race days. I'm really looking forward to the Florida Derby. I think some nice contenders will emerge from that race. Big Brown is being tipped by many for super stardom. I still do not have him in the top 10 because of his lack of experience. Talent can trump experience but I want to see his talent on display against some worthy adversaries before I proclaim him this years version of Curlin. Tomcito would seem to have a similar chance of proclaiming himself to be something special but we have to wait and see with him. Elysium Fields may actually get overlooked just a bit but for us he is the most solid Derby contender in the Florida Derby. I'd love to see him take the next step forward and really show that he's up to taking on Pyro and Denis Of Cork.
On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck
Dropped: Sierra Sunset (6)
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - March 18th
1. Pyro (2)
2. Denis Of Cork (5)
3. Cool Coal Man (4)
4. Colonel John (6)
5. Elysium Fields (7)
6. Sierra Sunset (new)
7. Georgie Boy (10)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. War Pass (1)
Ever since this Derby list began I've been removing horses from the Top 10 and Radar every week. I removed some for injury but the vast majority of my cuts were due to under performance. This past weekend was almost enough to make me rethink my policy however because I have been operating under the assumption that some of the horses from this crop were genuinely good and that in order to win all the others would have to measure up. It is becoming more and more apparent to me that any horse from this group should be able to win the Derby even the lamentably slow Big Truck. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a shocking race, War Pass was soundly defeated and his only saving grace was that his performance was so bad it simply cannot be an accurate reflection of what he is capable of. In terms of ability I think he is just as capable of wiring the Wood and Derby as he ever was but the reason I dropped him to 10th place on my list is that I now have serious doubts about his fitness and even mental toughness. Horses can run a terrible prep this close to the Derby and still recover but the fact is most don't. There is usually a reason why they run so badly and with time as short as it is that reason may not be cleared up in time to matter. Big Truck and Atoned are both on the radar, neither makes it into the top 10. Despite the fact that I'm trying to embrace the notion that any horse can win this Derby I'm still put off by the fact that the Tampa Bay Derby represents the best career effort by both of these horses and it is still well short of what horses like Pyro, Colonel John and Denis Of Cork seem capable of. I like Atoned far better than Big Truck because I think he has more upside. The one downside to him though is that he seems to be a loser. There is really no excuse for being second 4 times in a row, especially when 3 of the races were photo finishes. That indicates a mental problem, I wish Atoned had more time between now and the Derby to work it out. Part of me secretly wants to see him run a bad one next time out. That is often how these habitual losers break out of their funk. Then they become a great candidate at better odds next time out. Sierra Sunset makes a very high debut on the Top 10 list, checking in at #6. I thought his performance in the Rebel was just about as good as any two turn performance by a 3yo this year aside from possibly the Southwest where he ran a similar race but was easily beaten by Denis Of Cork who moved to second on the list despite not having run. Sierra Sunset, Liberty Bull and Isabull all came out of that race to run very well and it leads one to believe that Denis Of Cork may just be the big horse on the trail. He'll still be terribly short on seasoning but that be overcome if he is good enough and the competition is bad enough. Z Fortune gets dropped from the list entirely. I still like him as a horse but he ran well below expectations and I don't think he'll be rebounding in a big way next time out. Prior to the San Felipe I compared Georgie Boy to Came Home and the comparison looks more than apt at this stage. I think Georgie Boy has a definite ceiling distance wise and he won't get 10f. The San Felipe only further confirmed that notion. Why is he on my top 10? Because I think class will count for something in a crop that is this slow and Georgie Boy definitely has class. Is he likely to win the Derby? No, but there certainly aren't 10 more likely candidates out there. Personally I could only find 6. The top 10 list is unofficially starting to split between horses that I think are likely winners and horses that I consider as more in the money shots. Realistically after the final preps are run I'm not still going to believe that a full 10 horses are likely Derby winners so an unofficial line gets drawn. Right now I'd put the line under Sierra Sunset, all the horses below him are not as likely to win but are more than capable to hit the frame. Eight Belles has moved to the top of the radar list with the news that Rick Porter is considering nominating her to the Triple Crown. Given the quality of this years group of fillies relative to the colts I think she would have a decent shot but I'll wait until she is officially nominated before I decide to put her in the Top 10.
On the radar: Eight Belles, Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck
Dropped: Z Fortune (3), Shediak
1. Pyro (2)
2. Denis Of Cork (5)
3. Cool Coal Man (4)
4. Colonel John (6)
5. Elysium Fields (7)
6. Sierra Sunset (new)
7. Georgie Boy (10)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. War Pass (1)
Ever since this Derby list began I've been removing horses from the Top 10 and Radar every week. I removed some for injury but the vast majority of my cuts were due to under performance. This past weekend was almost enough to make me rethink my policy however because I have been operating under the assumption that some of the horses from this crop were genuinely good and that in order to win all the others would have to measure up. It is becoming more and more apparent to me that any horse from this group should be able to win the Derby even the lamentably slow Big Truck. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a shocking race, War Pass was soundly defeated and his only saving grace was that his performance was so bad it simply cannot be an accurate reflection of what he is capable of. In terms of ability I think he is just as capable of wiring the Wood and Derby as he ever was but the reason I dropped him to 10th place on my list is that I now have serious doubts about his fitness and even mental toughness. Horses can run a terrible prep this close to the Derby and still recover but the fact is most don't. There is usually a reason why they run so badly and with time as short as it is that reason may not be cleared up in time to matter. Big Truck and Atoned are both on the radar, neither makes it into the top 10. Despite the fact that I'm trying to embrace the notion that any horse can win this Derby I'm still put off by the fact that the Tampa Bay Derby represents the best career effort by both of these horses and it is still well short of what horses like Pyro, Colonel John and Denis Of Cork seem capable of. I like Atoned far better than Big Truck because I think he has more upside. The one downside to him though is that he seems to be a loser. There is really no excuse for being second 4 times in a row, especially when 3 of the races were photo finishes. That indicates a mental problem, I wish Atoned had more time between now and the Derby to work it out. Part of me secretly wants to see him run a bad one next time out. That is often how these habitual losers break out of their funk. Then they become a great candidate at better odds next time out. Sierra Sunset makes a very high debut on the Top 10 list, checking in at #6. I thought his performance in the Rebel was just about as good as any two turn performance by a 3yo this year aside from possibly the Southwest where he ran a similar race but was easily beaten by Denis Of Cork who moved to second on the list despite not having run. Sierra Sunset, Liberty Bull and Isabull all came out of that race to run very well and it leads one to believe that Denis Of Cork may just be the big horse on the trail. He'll still be terribly short on seasoning but that be overcome if he is good enough and the competition is bad enough. Z Fortune gets dropped from the list entirely. I still like him as a horse but he ran well below expectations and I don't think he'll be rebounding in a big way next time out. Prior to the San Felipe I compared Georgie Boy to Came Home and the comparison looks more than apt at this stage. I think Georgie Boy has a definite ceiling distance wise and he won't get 10f. The San Felipe only further confirmed that notion. Why is he on my top 10? Because I think class will count for something in a crop that is this slow and Georgie Boy definitely has class. Is he likely to win the Derby? No, but there certainly aren't 10 more likely candidates out there. Personally I could only find 6. The top 10 list is unofficially starting to split between horses that I think are likely winners and horses that I consider as more in the money shots. Realistically after the final preps are run I'm not still going to believe that a full 10 horses are likely Derby winners so an unofficial line gets drawn. Right now I'd put the line under Sierra Sunset, all the horses below him are not as likely to win but are more than capable to hit the frame. Eight Belles has moved to the top of the radar list with the news that Rick Porter is considering nominating her to the Triple Crown. Given the quality of this years group of fillies relative to the colts I think she would have a decent shot but I'll wait until she is officially nominated before I decide to put her in the Top 10.
On the radar: Eight Belles, Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck
Dropped: Z Fortune (3), Shediak
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - March 11th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (3)
4. Cool Coal Man (4)
5. Denis Of Cork (5)
6. Colonel John (6)
7. Elysium Fields (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. Georgie Boy (new)
The more I see this crop the more I wonder if it is all simply pointing to the fact that War Pass or an unknown like Tomcito or Big Brown will be the top horse. The Louisiana Derby was a fine race but realistically it was more reminiscent of Fifty Stars than Peace Rules. Pyro was admirably professional and I did love the way he was closer to the pace. But the pace was on the slow side again and the race itself wound up being slow. Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior and J Be K all put nails in their coffins as Derby contenders. It simply won't happen for any of those three. Pyro, while consistent and a nice horse to watch visually is far from convincing when you look at the clock. War Pass is fast in every facet and Pyro will need to run fast in order to beat him. So far he has not even made it back to the level he was at as a 2yo. He still has one more chance of course in the Blue Grass and he remains second because of his accomplishments but he has a greater chance of slipping down the list than he has of going up. Horses like Denis of Cork, Z Fortune and Elysium Fields may all get past him before his next prep. None of the other horses in the Louisiana Derby have a Derby future. The Gotham was a bit of a bizarre race in that we were unable to watch the majority of it. Visual impressions are hard to glean. What we do know is that Texas Wildcatter looked home free at the 1/16th pole but Visionaire rallied strongly to deny him. It was not a big enough effort to put Visionaire in the Top 10 because my feeling is that the race was not all that strong and that Visionaire himself is more the type to finish second or third behind a good horse. But with the way contenders have been dropping off this year he may well be in the Top 10 before too long. Big Brown and Hey Byrn made some noise with nice allowance wins but Hey Byrn is not on my watch list at all and Big Brown is just on the radar. The reality is that I'm not sure Hey Byrn is all that great and Big Brown is terribly inexperienced. He is monstrously talented, perhaps more so than any horse aside from War Pass and Pyro but experience is a big factor and so is seasoning. As it stands he'll enter the Derby with just one prep around two turns. For me that is too big of a negative to ignore. He has also been struggling with foot problems so even with an explosive victory in the Florida Derby I'm going to be cautious. The crop is almost crying out for a big performance from new shooters like Tomcito, Shediak or Big Brown. Otherwise it is looking more and more like a War Pass walkover. His questionable stamina may not ever factor into the equation if none of the others are fast enough to get near him.
On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Shediak, Tomcito
Dropped: Tale Of Ekati (10), J Be K, Giant Moon
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (3)
4. Cool Coal Man (4)
5. Denis Of Cork (5)
6. Colonel John (6)
7. Elysium Fields (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. Georgie Boy (new)
The more I see this crop the more I wonder if it is all simply pointing to the fact that War Pass or an unknown like Tomcito or Big Brown will be the top horse. The Louisiana Derby was a fine race but realistically it was more reminiscent of Fifty Stars than Peace Rules. Pyro was admirably professional and I did love the way he was closer to the pace. But the pace was on the slow side again and the race itself wound up being slow. Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior and J Be K all put nails in their coffins as Derby contenders. It simply won't happen for any of those three. Pyro, while consistent and a nice horse to watch visually is far from convincing when you look at the clock. War Pass is fast in every facet and Pyro will need to run fast in order to beat him. So far he has not even made it back to the level he was at as a 2yo. He still has one more chance of course in the Blue Grass and he remains second because of his accomplishments but he has a greater chance of slipping down the list than he has of going up. Horses like Denis of Cork, Z Fortune and Elysium Fields may all get past him before his next prep. None of the other horses in the Louisiana Derby have a Derby future. The Gotham was a bit of a bizarre race in that we were unable to watch the majority of it. Visual impressions are hard to glean. What we do know is that Texas Wildcatter looked home free at the 1/16th pole but Visionaire rallied strongly to deny him. It was not a big enough effort to put Visionaire in the Top 10 because my feeling is that the race was not all that strong and that Visionaire himself is more the type to finish second or third behind a good horse. But with the way contenders have been dropping off this year he may well be in the Top 10 before too long. Big Brown and Hey Byrn made some noise with nice allowance wins but Hey Byrn is not on my watch list at all and Big Brown is just on the radar. The reality is that I'm not sure Hey Byrn is all that great and Big Brown is terribly inexperienced. He is monstrously talented, perhaps more so than any horse aside from War Pass and Pyro but experience is a big factor and so is seasoning. As it stands he'll enter the Derby with just one prep around two turns. For me that is too big of a negative to ignore. He has also been struggling with foot problems so even with an explosive victory in the Florida Derby I'm going to be cautious. The crop is almost crying out for a big performance from new shooters like Tomcito, Shediak or Big Brown. Otherwise it is looking more and more like a War Pass walkover. His questionable stamina may not ever factor into the equation if none of the others are fast enough to get near him.
On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Shediak, Tomcito
Dropped: Tale Of Ekati (10), J Be K, Giant Moon
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - March 3rd
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (4)
4. Cool Coal Man (5)
5. Denis Of Cork (8)
6. Colonel John (3)
7. Elysium Fields (9)
8. El Gato Malo (7)
9. Court Vision (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (new)
The list narrows yet again as Into Mischief succumbs to injury and Alaazo drastically under performed. Into Mischief is not officially off the Derby trail but his preparation has been all but halted because of a minor foot ailment. He still might make the Santa Anita Derby but I'm not in love with any horses Derby chances if they've been having health issues all spring and only managed one prep around two turns. It's unfortunate for Mandella because he's one of the good guys. Speaking of the good guys things seem to be slipping away on Bill Mott as well. Z Humor has under performed, Court Vision ran below expectations, Riley Tucker was a complete bust and Alaazo now looks like he'll go in a different direction. Majestic Warrior could still get Mott back on track with a nice race in the Louisiana Derby but he's facing a very tough field off of a long layoff. The Sham Stakes was the only significant Derby prep to be run this last weekend and after having seen it I'm not sure how significant it will wind up being. I was not overly impressed with Colonel John or El Gato Malo. It was another prep with a slow pace and fast finish. In my estimation Colonel John was actually much better than El Gato Malo and has better prospects at a distance. Colonel John stalked the pace and moved to the front rather easily but then was drifting all over the track, still though it never appeared as if El Gato Malo was going to get him. Colonel John has the look of a stayer and hopefully he'll get better in his next race, which should be a rematch with El Gato Malo. What worries me most with Colonel John is that he's never run a really fast race and the fastest race he was involved in he lost. He has also never been on real dirt, but he has class and he is consistent, I'm not so much worried about the dirt issue. El Gato Malo might have had the toughest trip in the Sham but the reality is that Colonel John looked stronger in the last 100 yards and going further this quick little horse will struggle all the more. He is beginning to look like a miler type. So why is he still in the Derby Top 10? Well at this stage he is still talented and realistically there aren't many horses in this crop that have as much upside as he does. I doubt he'll stay the distance but he is definitely among the top best prospects to win. I also prefer his quickness to the slow plodding we saw from Court Vision last time out. Tale Of Ekati finds his way back into the Top 10 for the first time since February 12th, not because he's done anything significant but because of injuries and under achievements from some of his peers. Tale Of Ekati gets his big test this weekend alongside Majestic Warrior in the Louisiana Derby. A top three finish is all he really needs to go on to the next step. A new horse was added to the radar with the news that he is likely for the San Felipe. Shediak is a reformed European who has yet to start in North America. As a 2yo he went 3-1-1-1 and managed to run third in a G-1. He was extremely rank through the first half of that race and I think it's a testament to his ability that he still came with a run in the lane. I think he should have enough speed to stay with the American horses early and he's bred to run for days. The one problem with him is that he does not have any dirt pedigree at all but that should not inhibit him at Santa Anita. If he turns out to be good he'll be a wildcard on Derby day, maybe a wildcard is the only way to beat War Pass. Because more and more it looks as though most of this crop is simply not good enough.
On the radar: Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal, Shediak
Dropped: Into Mischief (6), Alaazo
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (4)
4. Cool Coal Man (5)
5. Denis Of Cork (8)
6. Colonel John (3)
7. Elysium Fields (9)
8. El Gato Malo (7)
9. Court Vision (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (new)
The list narrows yet again as Into Mischief succumbs to injury and Alaazo drastically under performed. Into Mischief is not officially off the Derby trail but his preparation has been all but halted because of a minor foot ailment. He still might make the Santa Anita Derby but I'm not in love with any horses Derby chances if they've been having health issues all spring and only managed one prep around two turns. It's unfortunate for Mandella because he's one of the good guys. Speaking of the good guys things seem to be slipping away on Bill Mott as well. Z Humor has under performed, Court Vision ran below expectations, Riley Tucker was a complete bust and Alaazo now looks like he'll go in a different direction. Majestic Warrior could still get Mott back on track with a nice race in the Louisiana Derby but he's facing a very tough field off of a long layoff. The Sham Stakes was the only significant Derby prep to be run this last weekend and after having seen it I'm not sure how significant it will wind up being. I was not overly impressed with Colonel John or El Gato Malo. It was another prep with a slow pace and fast finish. In my estimation Colonel John was actually much better than El Gato Malo and has better prospects at a distance. Colonel John stalked the pace and moved to the front rather easily but then was drifting all over the track, still though it never appeared as if El Gato Malo was going to get him. Colonel John has the look of a stayer and hopefully he'll get better in his next race, which should be a rematch with El Gato Malo. What worries me most with Colonel John is that he's never run a really fast race and the fastest race he was involved in he lost. He has also never been on real dirt, but he has class and he is consistent, I'm not so much worried about the dirt issue. El Gato Malo might have had the toughest trip in the Sham but the reality is that Colonel John looked stronger in the last 100 yards and going further this quick little horse will struggle all the more. He is beginning to look like a miler type. So why is he still in the Derby Top 10? Well at this stage he is still talented and realistically there aren't many horses in this crop that have as much upside as he does. I doubt he'll stay the distance but he is definitely among the top best prospects to win. I also prefer his quickness to the slow plodding we saw from Court Vision last time out. Tale Of Ekati finds his way back into the Top 10 for the first time since February 12th, not because he's done anything significant but because of injuries and under achievements from some of his peers. Tale Of Ekati gets his big test this weekend alongside Majestic Warrior in the Louisiana Derby. A top three finish is all he really needs to go on to the next step. A new horse was added to the radar with the news that he is likely for the San Felipe. Shediak is a reformed European who has yet to start in North America. As a 2yo he went 3-1-1-1 and managed to run third in a G-1. He was extremely rank through the first half of that race and I think it's a testament to his ability that he still came with a run in the lane. I think he should have enough speed to stay with the American horses early and he's bred to run for days. The one problem with him is that he does not have any dirt pedigree at all but that should not inhibit him at Santa Anita. If he turns out to be good he'll be a wildcard on Derby day, maybe a wildcard is the only way to beat War Pass. Because more and more it looks as though most of this crop is simply not good enough.
On the radar: Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal, Shediak
Dropped: Into Mischief (6), Alaazo
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - February 26th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Z Fortune (5)
5. Cool Coal Man (new)
6. Into Mischief (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Denis of Cork (10)
9. Elysium Fields (new)
10. Court Vision (4)
This was an interesting weekend as we saw the emergence of two new legitimate Derby contenders and of course the #1 horse confirmed his position. I don't think the performance by War Pass in allowance company really changed anything. Those who like him still like him and those looking for reasons to oppose him would not be overawed by his trashing of a few claimers. Since he has been the #1 ranked horse from the inception of this list it'll be no surprise to find that I liked his race. For me it was not about the competition. This race was just about seeing whether or not he came through the winter well. Physically he looked excellent, perhaps bigger and more powerful than last year. There is some speculation about whether or not he would be able to handle stiff company up front and still finish the way he does but my observation is that this horse rates very well. I think he goes to the front simply because he is much faster than everyone else not because his fragile psyche cannot withstand being in second. Much like if I were to race a group of 10 year olds. No matter what my preferred running style would be against adults I would inevitably find myself in front from the off because I'd simply be so much faster than everyone else. This is the impression War Pass gives and there is no question that he is the benchmark for this crop. In order to win the Derby you're going to have to beat him and as of right now not a single horse has demonstrated that level of ability. I will continue to keep an eye out though because I think the situation in 2001 was not all that dissimilar. Point Given looked like a monster and not many seemed to have the ability to match him. But Monarchos did flash his own high level of ability in the Florida Derby and he became the only horse I used against Point Given. Pyro is not yet that horse. War Pass is questionably bred in the opinion of some. My personal opinion is that if he is truly as good as he has looked it won't matter. If he's a man against boys he will be able to handle them no matter how far they go. Racing has been waiting for a real superstar for decades now and I'm not saying that War Pass is that horse just yet but what I will say is that this is what a truly superior horse should look like and the sky is the limit. Now onto other business because War Pass wasn't the only news of the weekend. Crown Of Thorns has lamentably been injured and is off the trail. I had high hopes for him and it's sad to see him go, hopefully he'll still have a great career ahead of him. The Fountain Of Youth has ended up being quite a bizarre race because of the timing issues. Essentially no one really knows how accurate the timing is, your best bet is just to assume that it was an average race in terms of the final time and bank on the visual impression. Cool Coal Man made an excellent visual impression. He settled nicely on the fence and his quick move to the front was a thing of beauty. I am less enamored with the way he loafed in the straight but that really quick turn of foot is the weapon that caught my eye. That is what you need to successfully navigate the Derby field. You need to be able to move quickly when asked. Is he capable of beating War Pass? Definitely not at this stage but we unfortunately have to remember that War Pass is mortal as well and should something happen to him, God forbid, Cool Coal Man realistically looks as a decent a prospect as anyone. I prefer Cool Coal Man to many of the horses that have run already because of his good tactical speed and quick acceleration. Elysium Fields impressed me as well. He had a bunch of disadvantages including an outside post which saw him lose ground on the first turn and also he was coming in straight from a maiden victory. I loved the way he stuck at it through the lane. He was moving every bit as well as Court Vision, who had gone much slower early on. The unfortunate part with Elysium Fields is that he looks like a grinder. Perhaps not brilliant enough but then again many grinders have had a habit of turning up big when it counts. I'd love to see him get two more starts before the Derby but most likely he'll just get one. I think he could really benefit from the experience of another few starts against stakes quality horses. Court Vision dropped well down the list off his third place finish in the Fountain Of Youth. I suppose he can be forgiven since it was his first start back but for me Court Vision had to prove two things. #1 - That he is actually faster than that terrible number he got in the Remsen and # 2 - That he could show a bit more speed and closer to the action once the real running starts. He basically flopped on both accounts. Perhaps Mott will sharpen him more for his next race but the reality is that he's a slow plodder whose only real asset is the guts to keep on running until he hits the line. That will see him pass a lot of tired horses on Derby day but it won't see him in the winners circle. He stays on the list because realistically he's still one of the 120 best options out there. I severely doubt that anyone can come up with 10 horses who could legitimately beat War Pass so the list is always going to contain some non winners who just have the chance to hit the frame. Monba can be excused as a horse for his failure in the Fountain of Youth but he is not excused as a Derby contender. He came back beaten up with cuts and bruises and realistically that will put an end to his hopes. Even if he gets one more prep he won't have had the kind of spring necessary for success. Kentucky Bear and Halo Najib were both dropped off the radar list because they either will never be good enough or are simply too far behind in their preparation to get there. Not many horses are capable of winning the Derby and the list gets smaller every week. Into Mischief is also in grave danger of being dropped. I did not want to rush to judgement because he has not officially been ruled out of the San Felipe yet but Mandella has said that he may not make the race because of a recurring foot problem. It's a bad time of year to be injured and unless the good news emerges that he's back on track he'll be dropped next year. This coming weekend features the last unraced 3yo on my list, Colonel John, against the highly impressive El Gato Malo. I'm really hoping that one of the two of them shows that they can be real Derby contenders.
On the radar: Tale Of Ekati, Alaazo, Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Crown Of Thorns (6), Monba (9), Kentucky Bear, Halo Najib
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Z Fortune (5)
5. Cool Coal Man (new)
6. Into Mischief (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Denis of Cork (10)
9. Elysium Fields (new)
10. Court Vision (4)
This was an interesting weekend as we saw the emergence of two new legitimate Derby contenders and of course the #1 horse confirmed his position. I don't think the performance by War Pass in allowance company really changed anything. Those who like him still like him and those looking for reasons to oppose him would not be overawed by his trashing of a few claimers. Since he has been the #1 ranked horse from the inception of this list it'll be no surprise to find that I liked his race. For me it was not about the competition. This race was just about seeing whether or not he came through the winter well. Physically he looked excellent, perhaps bigger and more powerful than last year. There is some speculation about whether or not he would be able to handle stiff company up front and still finish the way he does but my observation is that this horse rates very well. I think he goes to the front simply because he is much faster than everyone else not because his fragile psyche cannot withstand being in second. Much like if I were to race a group of 10 year olds. No matter what my preferred running style would be against adults I would inevitably find myself in front from the off because I'd simply be so much faster than everyone else. This is the impression War Pass gives and there is no question that he is the benchmark for this crop. In order to win the Derby you're going to have to beat him and as of right now not a single horse has demonstrated that level of ability. I will continue to keep an eye out though because I think the situation in 2001 was not all that dissimilar. Point Given looked like a monster and not many seemed to have the ability to match him. But Monarchos did flash his own high level of ability in the Florida Derby and he became the only horse I used against Point Given. Pyro is not yet that horse. War Pass is questionably bred in the opinion of some. My personal opinion is that if he is truly as good as he has looked it won't matter. If he's a man against boys he will be able to handle them no matter how far they go. Racing has been waiting for a real superstar for decades now and I'm not saying that War Pass is that horse just yet but what I will say is that this is what a truly superior horse should look like and the sky is the limit. Now onto other business because War Pass wasn't the only news of the weekend. Crown Of Thorns has lamentably been injured and is off the trail. I had high hopes for him and it's sad to see him go, hopefully he'll still have a great career ahead of him. The Fountain Of Youth has ended up being quite a bizarre race because of the timing issues. Essentially no one really knows how accurate the timing is, your best bet is just to assume that it was an average race in terms of the final time and bank on the visual impression. Cool Coal Man made an excellent visual impression. He settled nicely on the fence and his quick move to the front was a thing of beauty. I am less enamored with the way he loafed in the straight but that really quick turn of foot is the weapon that caught my eye. That is what you need to successfully navigate the Derby field. You need to be able to move quickly when asked. Is he capable of beating War Pass? Definitely not at this stage but we unfortunately have to remember that War Pass is mortal as well and should something happen to him, God forbid, Cool Coal Man realistically looks as a decent a prospect as anyone. I prefer Cool Coal Man to many of the horses that have run already because of his good tactical speed and quick acceleration. Elysium Fields impressed me as well. He had a bunch of disadvantages including an outside post which saw him lose ground on the first turn and also he was coming in straight from a maiden victory. I loved the way he stuck at it through the lane. He was moving every bit as well as Court Vision, who had gone much slower early on. The unfortunate part with Elysium Fields is that he looks like a grinder. Perhaps not brilliant enough but then again many grinders have had a habit of turning up big when it counts. I'd love to see him get two more starts before the Derby but most likely he'll just get one. I think he could really benefit from the experience of another few starts against stakes quality horses. Court Vision dropped well down the list off his third place finish in the Fountain Of Youth. I suppose he can be forgiven since it was his first start back but for me Court Vision had to prove two things. #1 - That he is actually faster than that terrible number he got in the Remsen and # 2 - That he could show a bit more speed and closer to the action once the real running starts. He basically flopped on both accounts. Perhaps Mott will sharpen him more for his next race but the reality is that he's a slow plodder whose only real asset is the guts to keep on running until he hits the line. That will see him pass a lot of tired horses on Derby day but it won't see him in the winners circle. He stays on the list because realistically he's still one of the 120 best options out there. I severely doubt that anyone can come up with 10 horses who could legitimately beat War Pass so the list is always going to contain some non winners who just have the chance to hit the frame. Monba can be excused as a horse for his failure in the Fountain of Youth but he is not excused as a Derby contender. He came back beaten up with cuts and bruises and realistically that will put an end to his hopes. Even if he gets one more prep he won't have had the kind of spring necessary for success. Kentucky Bear and Halo Najib were both dropped off the radar list because they either will never be good enough or are simply too far behind in their preparation to get there. Not many horses are capable of winning the Derby and the list gets smaller every week. Into Mischief is also in grave danger of being dropped. I did not want to rush to judgement because he has not officially been ruled out of the San Felipe yet but Mandella has said that he may not make the race because of a recurring foot problem. It's a bad time of year to be injured and unless the good news emerges that he's back on track he'll be dropped next year. This coming weekend features the last unraced 3yo on my list, Colonel John, against the highly impressive El Gato Malo. I'm really hoping that one of the two of them shows that they can be real Derby contenders.
On the radar: Tale Of Ekati, Alaazo, Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Crown Of Thorns (6), Monba (9), Kentucky Bear, Halo Najib
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - February 20th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Court Vision (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Crown Of Thorns (6)
7. Into Mischief (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Monba (9)
10. Denis of Cork (new)
The radar list continues to dwindle as more and more horses prove themselves to be less than Derby winning quality. I do not want to get too harsh on the quality of the horses seen in the Sam Davis but it will suffice to say that not one of them remains even on my radar. I do not think highly of any horse that ran in the race including the winner. Although Fierce Wind is undefeated around two turns I think he only won this race because the rest of his competition ran much worse than he did. The Delta Jackpot form looks pretty bad now with Cave's Valley, Z Humor and Turf War all coming back very poorly. Wise Answer looks as though he is just another Calder flash. He had no response once the real running started. The horse to get excited about this weekend was Denis of Cork. His win the in Southwest was just the sort of progressive effort I like to see. This was not a breathtaking performance. He did not come home all that fast, it's just that his competition was basically stopping. But there were some nice positives about it. First of all I like the way he settled closer to the pace early on. Until the leaders ran away at a ridiculous pace he looked set to have a nice stalking trip. It is good to see his connections trying to distance themselves from being a one run closer. I liked the way he assumed command with very little urging. He did not close very fast but he was well within himself. I also like that he received a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure. It's a good solid figure for this time of year but of course further improvement will be necessary. J Be K won as easily as he liked at the Fair Grounds but he does not really move up the radar for that performance. That race only restated what we already knew. He is a very fast horse. What we need to know about him is how far he'll go. He stays on the radar until we get more direction but the feeling is that he'll be a miler at most. Tale Of Ekati drops off the Top 10 list to the head of the radar list just because of his inactivity, unsatisfactory workouts and the performances of others. Cowboy Cal suffered a reverse on the grass but that race still suggests little about his Derby future. The Bluegrass is next for him and he will likely go into the Derby as a total wildcard, but a talented wildcard nonetheless.
On the radar: Tale Of Ekati (10), Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib, Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Riley Tucker, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Golden Yank
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Court Vision (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Crown Of Thorns (6)
7. Into Mischief (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Monba (9)
10. Denis of Cork (new)
The radar list continues to dwindle as more and more horses prove themselves to be less than Derby winning quality. I do not want to get too harsh on the quality of the horses seen in the Sam Davis but it will suffice to say that not one of them remains even on my radar. I do not think highly of any horse that ran in the race including the winner. Although Fierce Wind is undefeated around two turns I think he only won this race because the rest of his competition ran much worse than he did. The Delta Jackpot form looks pretty bad now with Cave's Valley, Z Humor and Turf War all coming back very poorly. Wise Answer looks as though he is just another Calder flash. He had no response once the real running started. The horse to get excited about this weekend was Denis of Cork. His win the in Southwest was just the sort of progressive effort I like to see. This was not a breathtaking performance. He did not come home all that fast, it's just that his competition was basically stopping. But there were some nice positives about it. First of all I like the way he settled closer to the pace early on. Until the leaders ran away at a ridiculous pace he looked set to have a nice stalking trip. It is good to see his connections trying to distance themselves from being a one run closer. I liked the way he assumed command with very little urging. He did not close very fast but he was well within himself. I also like that he received a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure. It's a good solid figure for this time of year but of course further improvement will be necessary. J Be K won as easily as he liked at the Fair Grounds but he does not really move up the radar for that performance. That race only restated what we already knew. He is a very fast horse. What we need to know about him is how far he'll go. He stays on the radar until we get more direction but the feeling is that he'll be a miler at most. Tale Of Ekati drops off the Top 10 list to the head of the radar list just because of his inactivity, unsatisfactory workouts and the performances of others. Cowboy Cal suffered a reverse on the grass but that race still suggests little about his Derby future. The Bluegrass is next for him and he will likely go into the Derby as a total wildcard, but a talented wildcard nonetheless.
On the radar: Tale Of Ekati (10), Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib, Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Riley Tucker, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Golden Yank
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - February 12th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (4)
3. Colonel John (2)
4. Court Vision (5)
5. Z Fortune (7)
6. Crown Of Thorns (8)
7. Into Mischief (6)
8. El Gato Malo (9)
9. Monba (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (3)
The Kentucky Derby Trail is sometimes as much about proving that certain horses can't win the Derby as it is proving that they can. In the end there are usually only 5 or fewer that truly look capable of winning the Derby so the lists should get shorter and shorter as time goes on. For me a whole bunch of horses proved themselves incapable this weekend. I know War Emblem, Real Quiet and Funny Cide all ran poorly in their first stakes attempts as 3yo's but generally horses run badly because they really aren't as good as they seemed. If any of the horses I dropped this week come back to win a nice race they'll go back on the radar but I'm not holding my breath. Both Visionaire and Signature Move were taken off the radar. Both were close to a slow pace and failed to show very much. Visionaire did show some heart but he looks like a nice G-3 runner rather than a Derby winner. No sense keeping him on the list. Jockey Ridge and Massive Drama both appear to be well suited to shorter races and most likely they won't make serious attempts at the Derby. Fidelio is still the only horse other than War Pass to beat Pyro but he has no recent workouts so while he might be a good horse eventually he's not a Derby horse. Tale Of Ekati was the biggest downward mover in the top 10. I don't like that Tagg is having problems bringing him around. He has talent but he still needs to show that he can do two turns effectively and the more his debut gets pushed back the less likely it is that he'll have a solid enough foundation to win the Derby. Pyro is the hottest property in racing this week because of his visually appealing run in the Risen Star. To me that race did not make him heir apparent. I'm beginning to suspect that Pyro and War Pass are the only animals of true quality that we've seen so far. Z Fortune ran a solid race to be second and I think with some time he could become a very good Derby prospect but he needs to step it up big time. I thought his outside post hampered him just a bit in that it kept him wide the whole way around and he was also sent to the front nearly a full furlong sooner in the Risen Star than he was in the LeComte. I think he needs more patient handling instead of the classic "favorites ride". But still it seemed as though he had a lot of work to do to get to Pyro's level. The San Vicente was not a terribly inspiring race to me. I think Georgie Boy got a dream run and Into Mischief was the one who was really disadvantaged by the way things worked out. He either had to risk Massive Drama getting away or leave himself exposed to a late runner. Since Massive Drama already got away from him once his connections decided to keep him honest and that left the race on a plate for Georgie Boy. Two turns and a bigger field may produce a very different result. I like Georgie Boy's consistency but I need to see him go long before I jump on the wagon. Halo Najib also ran a decent race at the OBS Championship. The fields are nothing worth noting but perhaps he's ready to step back up to good company. I am very much looking forward to Wise Answer's race in the Sam Davis this coming weekend. Calder form is looking fairly strong and he was the best of that bunch. His speed has already been confirmed. What we need to see now is some class and stamina.
On the radar: Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Atoned, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib
Dropped: Signature Move, Visionaire, Jockey Ridge, Fidelio, Massive Drama
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on my prognostication and analysis of the Derby Future Pool #1 I would have made the following plays at the closing prices.
Derby Pool #1
Denis of Cork (46/1)
Into Mischief (26/1)
Z Fortune (37/1)
I know I said I'd like Tale of Ekati at 25/1 or more and he wound up being 33/1 but news also came out over the weekend that Tagg was not thrilled with his training and would push back his first start into March. Not excellent news for a Derby prospect.
1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (4)
3. Colonel John (2)
4. Court Vision (5)
5. Z Fortune (7)
6. Crown Of Thorns (8)
7. Into Mischief (6)
8. El Gato Malo (9)
9. Monba (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (3)
The Kentucky Derby Trail is sometimes as much about proving that certain horses can't win the Derby as it is proving that they can. In the end there are usually only 5 or fewer that truly look capable of winning the Derby so the lists should get shorter and shorter as time goes on. For me a whole bunch of horses proved themselves incapable this weekend. I know War Emblem, Real Quiet and Funny Cide all ran poorly in their first stakes attempts as 3yo's but generally horses run badly because they really aren't as good as they seemed. If any of the horses I dropped this week come back to win a nice race they'll go back on the radar but I'm not holding my breath. Both Visionaire and Signature Move were taken off the radar. Both were close to a slow pace and failed to show very much. Visionaire did show some heart but he looks like a nice G-3 runner rather than a Derby winner. No sense keeping him on the list. Jockey Ridge and Massive Drama both appear to be well suited to shorter races and most likely they won't make serious attempts at the Derby. Fidelio is still the only horse other than War Pass to beat Pyro but he has no recent workouts so while he might be a good horse eventually he's not a Derby horse. Tale Of Ekati was the biggest downward mover in the top 10. I don't like that Tagg is having problems bringing him around. He has talent but he still needs to show that he can do two turns effectively and the more his debut gets pushed back the less likely it is that he'll have a solid enough foundation to win the Derby. Pyro is the hottest property in racing this week because of his visually appealing run in the Risen Star. To me that race did not make him heir apparent. I'm beginning to suspect that Pyro and War Pass are the only animals of true quality that we've seen so far. Z Fortune ran a solid race to be second and I think with some time he could become a very good Derby prospect but he needs to step it up big time. I thought his outside post hampered him just a bit in that it kept him wide the whole way around and he was also sent to the front nearly a full furlong sooner in the Risen Star than he was in the LeComte. I think he needs more patient handling instead of the classic "favorites ride". But still it seemed as though he had a lot of work to do to get to Pyro's level. The San Vicente was not a terribly inspiring race to me. I think Georgie Boy got a dream run and Into Mischief was the one who was really disadvantaged by the way things worked out. He either had to risk Massive Drama getting away or leave himself exposed to a late runner. Since Massive Drama already got away from him once his connections decided to keep him honest and that left the race on a plate for Georgie Boy. Two turns and a bigger field may produce a very different result. I like Georgie Boy's consistency but I need to see him go long before I jump on the wagon. Halo Najib also ran a decent race at the OBS Championship. The fields are nothing worth noting but perhaps he's ready to step back up to good company. I am very much looking forward to Wise Answer's race in the Sam Davis this coming weekend. Calder form is looking fairly strong and he was the best of that bunch. His speed has already been confirmed. What we need to see now is some class and stamina.
On the radar: Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Atoned, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib
Dropped: Signature Move, Visionaire, Jockey Ridge, Fidelio, Massive Drama
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on my prognostication and analysis of the Derby Future Pool #1 I would have made the following plays at the closing prices.
Derby Pool #1
Denis of Cork (46/1)
Into Mischief (26/1)
Z Fortune (37/1)
I know I said I'd like Tale of Ekati at 25/1 or more and he wound up being 33/1 but news also came out over the weekend that Tagg was not thrilled with his training and would push back his first start into March. Not excellent news for a Derby prospect.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - February 5th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Z Fortune (9)
8. Crown Of Thorns (new)
9. El Gato Malo (10)
10. Monba (new)
A slight shuffling in the top 10 this week after a nice performance by Crown Of Thorns and a re-evaluation of a couple of the contenders. Kodiak Kowboy was dropped from the Top 10 after his latest few works indicate that he's still a good ways off his first start of the year. He may not even get going until March. Considering that he was also questionable to be a route horse in the first place I think the time has come to drop him. I still respect his class and he is the kind of horse who should run well no matter where he is put. But do I realistically see him beating every other 3yo on the first Saturday in May? No, I don't. The axe also fell on Country Star, through no real fault of her own but it is looking increasingly like she won't run in the Derby. As of right now I believe she is only set to have one prep race before the Oaks and Derby and her connections have still not indicated that the Derby is a possibility. Now onto the more positive news. Crown Of Thorns appeared to be a real star in the making when he broke his maiden. He confirmed that impression this weekend in the Robert Lewis. The field was not extremely tough but he did beat Indian Sun by the same margin as El Gato Malo. He is a beautifully horse and is bred to run all day, I love Mandella as a trainer and he has such a quick and handy turn of foot. He used it to good effect when a hole on the rail opened up. He shot right through and then showed even more maturity when responding to urging. It was good that Coast Guard made him run a little but in the end it was clear that Crown Of Thorns was a far better horse. I'd be really excited to have this one. If this list were based solely on 3yo form he would be ranked second only to Z Fortune. His next race should come against the tough Colonel John but I would not necessarily bet against him. The second best race of the weekend by a 3yo was run by Alaazo who moves to the top of the radar list. You will not find a horse who is better bred for this race. By AP Indy out of Atelier and trained by Bill Mott Alaazo has all the tools. Not a brilliant horse by any means he still seems to have success in spite of not paying much attention. He never looks as if he's really putting his head down and getting to business. On Monday he won his second lifetime start in a 9f allowance at Gulfstream. His pilot seemed to have to keep him interested on the backside but he simply ambled his way to the front once the real running started. He gives the impression that with time and maturity he will be much more than he is at this stage. Although Barrier Reef earned a 94 BSF in the Whirlaway (which is very solid for this time of year) I was not sufficiently impressed with either he or Roman Emperor to add the to the radar. They did give Giant Moon a good form reference but I think this pair is destined to be second class. This coming weekend features the Risen Star where we will get a lot of guidance because Pyro, Z Fortune, Signature Move and Visionaire are all set to clash as well as a few other solid contenders. Anyone who finishes in the top three must be considered a legitimate Derby contender.
On the radar: Alaazo, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, Giant Moon
Dropped: Kodiak Kowboy (7), Country Star (8)
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Z Fortune (9)
8. Crown Of Thorns (new)
9. El Gato Malo (10)
10. Monba (new)
A slight shuffling in the top 10 this week after a nice performance by Crown Of Thorns and a re-evaluation of a couple of the contenders. Kodiak Kowboy was dropped from the Top 10 after his latest few works indicate that he's still a good ways off his first start of the year. He may not even get going until March. Considering that he was also questionable to be a route horse in the first place I think the time has come to drop him. I still respect his class and he is the kind of horse who should run well no matter where he is put. But do I realistically see him beating every other 3yo on the first Saturday in May? No, I don't. The axe also fell on Country Star, through no real fault of her own but it is looking increasingly like she won't run in the Derby. As of right now I believe she is only set to have one prep race before the Oaks and Derby and her connections have still not indicated that the Derby is a possibility. Now onto the more positive news. Crown Of Thorns appeared to be a real star in the making when he broke his maiden. He confirmed that impression this weekend in the Robert Lewis. The field was not extremely tough but he did beat Indian Sun by the same margin as El Gato Malo. He is a beautifully horse and is bred to run all day, I love Mandella as a trainer and he has such a quick and handy turn of foot. He used it to good effect when a hole on the rail opened up. He shot right through and then showed even more maturity when responding to urging. It was good that Coast Guard made him run a little but in the end it was clear that Crown Of Thorns was a far better horse. I'd be really excited to have this one. If this list were based solely on 3yo form he would be ranked second only to Z Fortune. His next race should come against the tough Colonel John but I would not necessarily bet against him. The second best race of the weekend by a 3yo was run by Alaazo who moves to the top of the radar list. You will not find a horse who is better bred for this race. By AP Indy out of Atelier and trained by Bill Mott Alaazo has all the tools. Not a brilliant horse by any means he still seems to have success in spite of not paying much attention. He never looks as if he's really putting his head down and getting to business. On Monday he won his second lifetime start in a 9f allowance at Gulfstream. His pilot seemed to have to keep him interested on the backside but he simply ambled his way to the front once the real running started. He gives the impression that with time and maturity he will be much more than he is at this stage. Although Barrier Reef earned a 94 BSF in the Whirlaway (which is very solid for this time of year) I was not sufficiently impressed with either he or Roman Emperor to add the to the radar. They did give Giant Moon a good form reference but I think this pair is destined to be second class. This coming weekend features the Risen Star where we will get a lot of guidance because Pyro, Z Fortune, Signature Move and Visionaire are all set to clash as well as a few other solid contenders. Anyone who finishes in the top three must be considered a legitimate Derby contender.
On the radar: Alaazo, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, Giant Moon
Dropped: Kodiak Kowboy (7), Country Star (8)
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - January 29th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don't think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don't think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he's been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he's faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don't even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I'm not the biggest fan of Nick Zito's handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won't necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he'll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they're not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don't trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It's kind of ironic that I've had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it's much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don't think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don't think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he's been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he's faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don't even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I'm not the biggest fan of Nick Zito's handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won't necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he'll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they're not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don't trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It's kind of ironic that I've had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it's much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Since the weekend is long past and nothing much happened anyway I'll dispense with the weekend review for this week. I'll still remember to tally my losing bets for the weekend but those results will be combined with this weeks tally. Now onto the Derby Top 10.
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
This week I'm starting to essentially have a paradigm shift in the way I'm assessing the Derby contenders. When the list is first created it is based largely on 2yo form. That is really all we have to go off of. But I am beginning to suspect that much of the 2yo form we saw was not all that great and in many cases the 3yo's we see who pop up with big moves are actually superior in quality. Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style and Slew's Tiznow have all been dropped off the radar. None of them have worked yet this year and I'd rather go with hot horses who are less exposed. That trio could possibly work their way back on the list but they have to prove it with their 3yo form and the lack of works makes that an more unlikely scenario. War Pass remains at #1 despite the news of his bout of colic. The main reason is because there is not any other horse who actually deserves the #1 slot. I know it is still January but we have not seen an overabundance of impressive 3yo's, we've hardly seen any. A few that I'm looking forward to. Signature Move, an Eric Guillot horse is being bullishly touted by his connections. He is 3-2-0-1 in his career with an allowance win around two turns. They are already plotting where he will go after he "wins the Risen Star". Never mind that it will be his stakes debut his connections have no doubt at all that he'll be the winner. After seeing the way he moved away from his competition last time I'm not sure I disagree with them. There have been 4 impressive races at Gulfstream that have caught my eye. Elysium Fields was the latest, he got blinkers for the first time and easily confirmed the promise he had hinted at when losing his first three starts. Blinkers can often make a horse turn the corner as we clearly saw with Daaher. Another horse who actually beat Elysium Fields at Laurel and came back with a good GP race of his own was Visionaire. This Matz trainee has been quite impressive without ever being that fast but very often you'll see talented horses move their speed figures up significantly once they're pressed in stakes company. Jockey Ridge owns the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure at this stage for his win in a 6.5f race at Gulfstream. It was the classic step forward off a solid debut. I don't really like the way that he appeared so comfortable going right to the lead and out sprinting everyone else but he's bred to go longer so we'll keep an eye out. Lastly Kentucky Bear burst onto the scene with a very nice debut performance. He has a bit awkward in parts but he was much the best and won for fun. I'm not sure that any of his competition really showed up but it was probably the best career debut of any 3yo so far this year. All of these horses mentioned get added to the radar for this week while the top 10 remains unchanged.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Dropped: Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style, Slew's Tiznow
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)
This week I'm starting to essentially have a paradigm shift in the way I'm assessing the Derby contenders. When the list is first created it is based largely on 2yo form. That is really all we have to go off of. But I am beginning to suspect that much of the 2yo form we saw was not all that great and in many cases the 3yo's we see who pop up with big moves are actually superior in quality. Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style and Slew's Tiznow have all been dropped off the radar. None of them have worked yet this year and I'd rather go with hot horses who are less exposed. That trio could possibly work their way back on the list but they have to prove it with their 3yo form and the lack of works makes that an more unlikely scenario. War Pass remains at #1 despite the news of his bout of colic. The main reason is because there is not any other horse who actually deserves the #1 slot. I know it is still January but we have not seen an overabundance of impressive 3yo's, we've hardly seen any. A few that I'm looking forward to. Signature Move, an Eric Guillot horse is being bullishly touted by his connections. He is 3-2-0-1 in his career with an allowance win around two turns. They are already plotting where he will go after he "wins the Risen Star". Never mind that it will be his stakes debut his connections have no doubt at all that he'll be the winner. After seeing the way he moved away from his competition last time I'm not sure I disagree with them. There have been 4 impressive races at Gulfstream that have caught my eye. Elysium Fields was the latest, he got blinkers for the first time and easily confirmed the promise he had hinted at when losing his first three starts. Blinkers can often make a horse turn the corner as we clearly saw with Daaher. Another horse who actually beat Elysium Fields at Laurel and came back with a good GP race of his own was Visionaire. This Matz trainee has been quite impressive without ever being that fast but very often you'll see talented horses move their speed figures up significantly once they're pressed in stakes company. Jockey Ridge owns the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure at this stage for his win in a 6.5f race at Gulfstream. It was the classic step forward off a solid debut. I don't really like the way that he appeared so comfortable going right to the lead and out sprinting everyone else but he's bred to go longer so we'll keep an eye out. Lastly Kentucky Bear burst onto the scene with a very nice debut performance. He has a bit awkward in parts but he was much the best and won for fun. I'm not sure that any of his competition really showed up but it was probably the best career debut of any 3yo so far this year. All of these horses mentioned get added to the radar for this week while the top 10 remains unchanged.
On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank
Dropped: Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style, Slew's Tiznow
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
Derby Top 10 - January 15th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (new)
10. El Gato Malo (new)
I won't bore you with a reiteration of why I think War Pass is still the #1 Derby prospect in the nation. In general I'll try to confine my weekly analysis to the current happenings. Riley Tucker and Monba have been temporarily relegated to the radar list following some nice performances from some undefeated horses. I have Z Fortune rated the better of the two for a variety of reasons. Not among them is the brilliance factor, Z Fortune is not a terribly brilliant horse but so far in his career he has never lost. In fact he has never really appeared in danger of losing. He has run on three different tracks, shown the ability to win on the pace or from off it and each time the final furlong has been fairly comfortable for him. Although he has been driven to the line he has never had to deal with pressure late on. His speed figures are quite decent for this stage in his career. He received a 95 for the LeComte, as long as he continues to improve his level of performance on the racetrack he will move up this list. I do not expect him to remain undefeated all the way to the Derby but if he can improve even without winning he will be a dangerous horse. He is bred to love the distance and physically he looks like he'll love a route of ground. The horse that was directly behind him in the LeComte, Blackberry Road, is getting a decent amount of attention but not from me. He needs to start winning races to get included. The classiest loser of this crop is Pyro, I don't need two horses who can't win on the list. El Gato Malo was breathtaking in the San Rafael. He is a beautiful mover who in his short career has shown a few different facets and most of all, sheer brilliance. The pace of the San Rafael did setup for him but the way he quickly accelerated was the sign of a good horse. In his previous start he also showed willingness to get through tight gaps with ease. So he's brave as well as quick. The world is seemingly at his feet and in terms of visual impression while in motion you'd be hard pressed to find any that match him. But I do have a few questions about him. He has the look of a miler. His quickness and breeding suggest that perhaps his best distance will be 9f and below. That isn't written in stone though as there are thousands of examples of horses outstaying their pedigree. The best thing we can do is observe him over the coming months. But there is also one more factor that makes me nervous. He has never been on dirt and it's highly possible that he may never try dirt until the Derby itself. That is far from an ideal situation, although he's bred for dirt you never quite know how a horse will do on its first time out. Especially in a race like the Derby where kickback is nearly unavoidable. As is often the case, the horses we see with the greatest capacity for brilliance also have some real frailties.
On the radar: Riley Tucker (9), Monba (10), Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (new)
10. El Gato Malo (new)
I won't bore you with a reiteration of why I think War Pass is still the #1 Derby prospect in the nation. In general I'll try to confine my weekly analysis to the current happenings. Riley Tucker and Monba have been temporarily relegated to the radar list following some nice performances from some undefeated horses. I have Z Fortune rated the better of the two for a variety of reasons. Not among them is the brilliance factor, Z Fortune is not a terribly brilliant horse but so far in his career he has never lost. In fact he has never really appeared in danger of losing. He has run on three different tracks, shown the ability to win on the pace or from off it and each time the final furlong has been fairly comfortable for him. Although he has been driven to the line he has never had to deal with pressure late on. His speed figures are quite decent for this stage in his career. He received a 95 for the LeComte, as long as he continues to improve his level of performance on the racetrack he will move up this list. I do not expect him to remain undefeated all the way to the Derby but if he can improve even without winning he will be a dangerous horse. He is bred to love the distance and physically he looks like he'll love a route of ground. The horse that was directly behind him in the LeComte, Blackberry Road, is getting a decent amount of attention but not from me. He needs to start winning races to get included. The classiest loser of this crop is Pyro, I don't need two horses who can't win on the list. El Gato Malo was breathtaking in the San Rafael. He is a beautiful mover who in his short career has shown a few different facets and most of all, sheer brilliance. The pace of the San Rafael did setup for him but the way he quickly accelerated was the sign of a good horse. In his previous start he also showed willingness to get through tight gaps with ease. So he's brave as well as quick. The world is seemingly at his feet and in terms of visual impression while in motion you'd be hard pressed to find any that match him. But I do have a few questions about him. He has the look of a miler. His quickness and breeding suggest that perhaps his best distance will be 9f and below. That isn't written in stone though as there are thousands of examples of horses outstaying their pedigree. The best thing we can do is observe him over the coming months. But there is also one more factor that makes me nervous. He has never been on dirt and it's highly possible that he may never try dirt until the Derby itself. That is far from an ideal situation, although he's bred for dirt you never quite know how a horse will do on its first time out. Especially in a race like the Derby where kickback is nearly unavoidable. As is often the case, the horses we see with the greatest capacity for brilliance also have some real frailties.
On the radar: Riley Tucker (9), Monba (10), Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Kentucky Derby Top 10
I posted my initial Derby Top 10 back in early December but now in the new year I'll be updating the Top 10 every week until the Kentucky Derby itself. I have had the eventual Derby winner in my first January Top 10 for the past two years. Hopefully he (or she) is mentioned here for the third year in a row. The Top 10 will be listed on the sidebar as well. The number in brackets is the horses ranking from the previous Top 10 list.
Derby Top 10 - January 8th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (new)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
War Pass remains my top Derby horse and will likely stay there unless I see something fantastic from another contender. He is undefeated and despite his penchant for early speed I think he's live and dangerous for the Derby. Colonel John had his chance to impress and perhaps topple War Pass but he didn't quite take that chance. He did not run poorly in the Hollywood Futurity but he didn't shoot the lights out either and he is vulnerable in the #2 spot. Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Court Vision are also unchanged. None of them did anything of note recently but the class and talent they showed as 2yo's makes them benchmarks for the division and they'll likely remain highly ranked until they give me a reason to drop them. Into Mischief was pretty impressive when taking the Hollywood Futurity over Colonel John and Massive Drama. I love the fact that he's got speed going two turns but he's able to throttle back the speed a bit. This will see him get first run on most of his opponents on the Triple Crown trail. I also love the fact that he's trained by Mandella. There are few trainers that I have more faith in. Although he is not typically known as a Derby trainer I think he can prepare and campaign a horse as well as anyone in the nation. Kodiak Kowboy is questionable to stay 10f but he hangs around and he's got some class. I think he will be very tough all through the TC trail. Country Star made a huge splash with her win in the Hollywood Starlet. I was not quite sure how to rank her. Visually her Hollywood Starlet was better than Into Mischief's Futurity but I've ranked her lower to compensate for the real chance that she may not contest the Derby. Frankel has said the Oaks is her target so even putting her on this list at all means banking on him changing his mind. Riley Tucker is an oddball pick but he showed a lot of ability as a 2yo. His connections did not have him all straightened out so we didn't see his best before he got injured. He is back on the work tab now for Mott and I expect him to do quite well. Most people are tabbing Cowboy Cal as Pletcher's best 3yo right now but I think it's Monba, at least in terms of the main track. Cowboy Cal has been very impressive on the grass not actually as impressive as Barbaro was at that stage. He's good as a turf horse but he isn't exactly the best Turf juvenile we've seen in a decade. I prefer Monba who made a big late run in the Futurity and galloped out very strongly as well. Obviously he'll need to start getting into the race sooner but he's still green and I think he's got a decent future.
Dropped: Cave's Valley (6) - His performance in the Delta Jackpot was not horrendous and I would be open to including him in the Top 10 again if he rebounds well in his next race but I suspect that he will not be pointed to the Derby. Most likely he'll have a nice career contesting listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware.
Majestic Warrior (8) - Still no workouts, I can't keep him on the Top 10 when he's still injured. Derby winners pretty much have to be working out at this stage.
Wise Answer (9) - Got a great form reference from Smooth Air but ran flatly in a turf race. I don't hold the Turf race against him that much so I left him on the radar. But my main question is, why was he in the Turf race to being with? It may signal that his connections don't really think he is good enough to leave Calder and win, or that they simply don't know how to campaign a Derby horse. In any event he's got to run well on the main track to get back in my good graces.
On the radar: Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer (9), Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal
Derby Top 10 - January 8th
1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (new)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (new)
9. Riley Tucker (10)
10. Monba (new)
War Pass remains my top Derby horse and will likely stay there unless I see something fantastic from another contender. He is undefeated and despite his penchant for early speed I think he's live and dangerous for the Derby. Colonel John had his chance to impress and perhaps topple War Pass but he didn't quite take that chance. He did not run poorly in the Hollywood Futurity but he didn't shoot the lights out either and he is vulnerable in the #2 spot. Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Court Vision are also unchanged. None of them did anything of note recently but the class and talent they showed as 2yo's makes them benchmarks for the division and they'll likely remain highly ranked until they give me a reason to drop them. Into Mischief was pretty impressive when taking the Hollywood Futurity over Colonel John and Massive Drama. I love the fact that he's got speed going two turns but he's able to throttle back the speed a bit. This will see him get first run on most of his opponents on the Triple Crown trail. I also love the fact that he's trained by Mandella. There are few trainers that I have more faith in. Although he is not typically known as a Derby trainer I think he can prepare and campaign a horse as well as anyone in the nation. Kodiak Kowboy is questionable to stay 10f but he hangs around and he's got some class. I think he will be very tough all through the TC trail. Country Star made a huge splash with her win in the Hollywood Starlet. I was not quite sure how to rank her. Visually her Hollywood Starlet was better than Into Mischief's Futurity but I've ranked her lower to compensate for the real chance that she may not contest the Derby. Frankel has said the Oaks is her target so even putting her on this list at all means banking on him changing his mind. Riley Tucker is an oddball pick but he showed a lot of ability as a 2yo. His connections did not have him all straightened out so we didn't see his best before he got injured. He is back on the work tab now for Mott and I expect him to do quite well. Most people are tabbing Cowboy Cal as Pletcher's best 3yo right now but I think it's Monba, at least in terms of the main track. Cowboy Cal has been very impressive on the grass not actually as impressive as Barbaro was at that stage. He's good as a turf horse but he isn't exactly the best Turf juvenile we've seen in a decade. I prefer Monba who made a big late run in the Futurity and galloped out very strongly as well. Obviously he'll need to start getting into the race sooner but he's still green and I think he's got a decent future.
Dropped: Cave's Valley (6) - His performance in the Delta Jackpot was not horrendous and I would be open to including him in the Top 10 again if he rebounds well in his next race but I suspect that he will not be pointed to the Derby. Most likely he'll have a nice career contesting listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware.
Majestic Warrior (8) - Still no workouts, I can't keep him on the Top 10 when he's still injured. Derby winners pretty much have to be working out at this stage.
Wise Answer (9) - Got a great form reference from Smooth Air but ran flatly in a turf race. I don't hold the Turf race against him that much so I left him on the radar. But my main question is, why was he in the Turf race to being with? It may signal that his connections don't really think he is good enough to leave Calder and win, or that they simply don't know how to campaign a Derby horse. In any event he's got to run well on the main track to get back in my good graces.
On the radar: Salute The Sarge, Slew's Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer (9), Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Derby Top 10
Starting in the new year I'll be updating my personal Derby Top 10 on a weekly basis, until then I'll just post my initial list. I apologize for it's length. I promise that the weekly updates won't be nearly this long. I just wanted to give you all an idea of why I liked these specific horses. From this point on the Top 10 will be focused primarily on recent occurances not past accomplishments, but I felt a solid base of context was necessary. That and I just started writing and didn't realize how much I'd done until it was too late!
Derby Top 10 - December
1. War Pass
2. Colonel John
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Pyro
5. Court Vision
6. Cave’s Valley
7. Kodiak Kowboy
8. Majestic Warrior
9. Wise Answer
10. Riley Tucker
War Pass had to be put on top of the list at this point because the reality is that no horse has proven himself to be in the same class as him thus far and it is entirely possible that we are simply witnessing one of the great talents of our time. That often gets said about 2yo’s that look promising but War Pass is utterly dominant and has received the highest speed figures of any 2yo on record. Some talk warily of his ability to stretch out or what might happen to him when he is faced with a speed duel but his competition tried that in the BC Juvenile and no horse in that race was capable of going with him early and of course none could catch him late. This was not merely a front running score it was a clear display from War Pass that he is in a different class. For the record I’m not fond of how Zito prepares his Triple Crown horses but War Pass could be good enough to overcome that. Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest, the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease. He has not yet run on real dirt and so far Tiznow’s progeny has been better on All-Weather tracks but I’m not going to assume that’s a problem until it becomes one. Tale Of Ekati is a horse I regard very highly. I disliked him in the Juvenile because I thought he was not prepared the right way for it. Still he ran a good race to be 4th while appearing not to get a hold of the track. He’s a quick horse who I think we’ve yet to see the best of. Tagg should take him along the traditional Gulfstream/Aqueduct route and I expect him to be a dominant horse in the preps. I have Pyro ranked 4th despite his fine late closing finishes and good speed figures. I do love the way he runs on and one can hardly be blamed for losing to War Pass but he’s lost to him 3 times in a row and that kind of dominance can effect a horse mentally. I want to see him start to win some races and he should get a chance to do that at the Fair Grounds. Court Vision has everything you could ask for from a Derby prospect except for the fact that he seems about 10 lengths slower than the best of this crop. He may improve as time goes on and a look at his record and accomplishments without race times make him a peer or War Pass. But this is the value of speed figures. When they are consistently slow it often indicates that the horse is slow. I have a wary eye on Court Vision if he does not start to get fast in a hurry he won’t stick around long. Cave’s Valley is a bit of an oddball selection but I find it hard to criticize an undefeated Saratoga maiden winner who has already won two minor stakes races going long. He is 3 for 3 lifetime with a 92 Beyer around two turns, his other figures have been quite slow though and there is some question as to why he has been kept at Delaware recently if he’s so good. But he got an excellent form reference in the Remsen when Atoned nearly beat Court Vision after almost falling. Cave’s Valley beat Atoned twice in a row including one very dominant performance. That form suggests he can run with many of the best horses in the East. He has good early speed but has also won from off the pace and is conditioned by Micheal Trombetta who had Sweetnorthernsaint a few years back. He might take the winter route through Aqueduct or head to Gulfstream after a run in the Delta Jackpot. Kodiak Kowboy is the class benchmark of the generation. Like Scat Daddy or More Than Ready he is a classy and consistent horse who probably has distance limitations but that should not affect him in the preps where he will be a tough horse to beat every time he runs. Do I see him winning the Derby? Probably not, but at this early stage I’d rather highlight a horse who will be a major factor in the preps than some maiden. Majestic Warrior gets one race to prove that his Champagne was a fluke. The Hopeful form did not work out at all and if not for his breeding I would have likely tossed him already. But he was so bad in the Champagne that he deserves another shot. Wise Answer is another horse that is on a short leash as far as his standing in this ranking goes. He’s shown brilliant speed going short and long and for the most part he’s been fantastic. He also got a great form reference from Check It Twice, a horse he demolished in the In Reality who has not lost since. But he might be nothing more than a Calder flash so I’ll want to see him confirm this form on another track. If he proves to be just as good away from Calder he could easily be a top 3 prospect. Riley Tucker is another Mott horse that I think highly of. He struck me as a very good horse that has yet to figure things out. He was far too good for the horses he faced in his debut then ran a good third to Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse in the Saratoga Special. He was ridden too aggressively on the front end that day and tired. In his next start he was taken back and made a good run to the front but seemed to pull up a bit once he hit the front and Wicked Style came on again to deny him by a head. He has since been injured and Mott does not have him back on the work tab but I liked what I saw from his juvenile campaign so if he comes back in good time and continues to improve he could be a very useful horse.
On the radar:
Salute The Sarge – A very consistent performer in California I don’t think the Breeders Cup was necessarily a good indication of what he could do on dirt. He get’s another try.
Slew’s Tiznow – Pointing to the Hollywood Futurity and could be one of the favorites for that race. The form from the Breeders Futurity has not worked out all that well yet but he does appear to be a progressive sort.
Wicked Style – Another Juvenile retread, he looked great prior to the race so I can’t toss him based on a bad performance in the slop.
Atoned – Although Cave’s Valley handled him with ease and Court Vision overcame trouble to deny him atoned does appear to be a solid competitor who might turn the corner and become a good one.
Etched – If he were staying in the US he’d be in the top 5 but preparation in Dubai will leave him with a lot to do. He has been phenomenal so far and Anak Nakal a horse he teased in his last start came back to win a G-2.
Country Star – The only filly I’m really watching to have an impact against the boys. Most likely she’ll be run conservatively but it’s possible that she might get a chance against the boys. She certainly appears to have plenty of talent.
Fidelio – Probably Frankel’s best 2yo male, I believe he even tabbed him as his Derby horse. He won his first start well then looked green when losing to War Pass but he still finished second that day ahead of Pyro. Incidentally he and War Pass are the only horses to have beaten Pyro. Did not show much in the Breeders Futurity but dirt may be the key with him.
Alaazo – A Zayat maiden winner for Mott. He won his 8f debut after an extremely eventful trip. He broke slow and endured some bumping that basically caused him to blow the first turn. He made a strong middle move then ran down the loose leader on Monmouth’s speed favoring summer strip. The figure was modest but this horse is bred to get better and better being by AP Indy out of Atelier. He was obviously injured after that start but hopefully he comes back in good order. He is my number prospect among horses who have not yet run in a stakes race.
J Be K – Another Zayat undefeated maiden winner except this one runs for Baffert. He got a huge figure in his first start and it will be interesting to see what he does next.
Derby Top 10 - December
1. War Pass
2. Colonel John
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Pyro
5. Court Vision
6. Cave’s Valley
7. Kodiak Kowboy
8. Majestic Warrior
9. Wise Answer
10. Riley Tucker
War Pass had to be put on top of the list at this point because the reality is that no horse has proven himself to be in the same class as him thus far and it is entirely possible that we are simply witnessing one of the great talents of our time. That often gets said about 2yo’s that look promising but War Pass is utterly dominant and has received the highest speed figures of any 2yo on record. Some talk warily of his ability to stretch out or what might happen to him when he is faced with a speed duel but his competition tried that in the BC Juvenile and no horse in that race was capable of going with him early and of course none could catch him late. This was not merely a front running score it was a clear display from War Pass that he is in a different class. For the record I’m not fond of how Zito prepares his Triple Crown horses but War Pass could be good enough to overcome that. Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest, the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease. He has not yet run on real dirt and so far Tiznow’s progeny has been better on All-Weather tracks but I’m not going to assume that’s a problem until it becomes one. Tale Of Ekati is a horse I regard very highly. I disliked him in the Juvenile because I thought he was not prepared the right way for it. Still he ran a good race to be 4th while appearing not to get a hold of the track. He’s a quick horse who I think we’ve yet to see the best of. Tagg should take him along the traditional Gulfstream/Aqueduct route and I expect him to be a dominant horse in the preps. I have Pyro ranked 4th despite his fine late closing finishes and good speed figures. I do love the way he runs on and one can hardly be blamed for losing to War Pass but he’s lost to him 3 times in a row and that kind of dominance can effect a horse mentally. I want to see him start to win some races and he should get a chance to do that at the Fair Grounds. Court Vision has everything you could ask for from a Derby prospect except for the fact that he seems about 10 lengths slower than the best of this crop. He may improve as time goes on and a look at his record and accomplishments without race times make him a peer or War Pass. But this is the value of speed figures. When they are consistently slow it often indicates that the horse is slow. I have a wary eye on Court Vision if he does not start to get fast in a hurry he won’t stick around long. Cave’s Valley is a bit of an oddball selection but I find it hard to criticize an undefeated Saratoga maiden winner who has already won two minor stakes races going long. He is 3 for 3 lifetime with a 92 Beyer around two turns, his other figures have been quite slow though and there is some question as to why he has been kept at Delaware recently if he’s so good. But he got an excellent form reference in the Remsen when Atoned nearly beat Court Vision after almost falling. Cave’s Valley beat Atoned twice in a row including one very dominant performance. That form suggests he can run with many of the best horses in the East. He has good early speed but has also won from off the pace and is conditioned by Micheal Trombetta who had Sweetnorthernsaint a few years back. He might take the winter route through Aqueduct or head to Gulfstream after a run in the Delta Jackpot. Kodiak Kowboy is the class benchmark of the generation. Like Scat Daddy or More Than Ready he is a classy and consistent horse who probably has distance limitations but that should not affect him in the preps where he will be a tough horse to beat every time he runs. Do I see him winning the Derby? Probably not, but at this early stage I’d rather highlight a horse who will be a major factor in the preps than some maiden. Majestic Warrior gets one race to prove that his Champagne was a fluke. The Hopeful form did not work out at all and if not for his breeding I would have likely tossed him already. But he was so bad in the Champagne that he deserves another shot. Wise Answer is another horse that is on a short leash as far as his standing in this ranking goes. He’s shown brilliant speed going short and long and for the most part he’s been fantastic. He also got a great form reference from Check It Twice, a horse he demolished in the In Reality who has not lost since. But he might be nothing more than a Calder flash so I’ll want to see him confirm this form on another track. If he proves to be just as good away from Calder he could easily be a top 3 prospect. Riley Tucker is another Mott horse that I think highly of. He struck me as a very good horse that has yet to figure things out. He was far too good for the horses he faced in his debut then ran a good third to Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse in the Saratoga Special. He was ridden too aggressively on the front end that day and tired. In his next start he was taken back and made a good run to the front but seemed to pull up a bit once he hit the front and Wicked Style came on again to deny him by a head. He has since been injured and Mott does not have him back on the work tab but I liked what I saw from his juvenile campaign so if he comes back in good time and continues to improve he could be a very useful horse.
On the radar:
Salute The Sarge – A very consistent performer in California I don’t think the Breeders Cup was necessarily a good indication of what he could do on dirt. He get’s another try.
Slew’s Tiznow – Pointing to the Hollywood Futurity and could be one of the favorites for that race. The form from the Breeders Futurity has not worked out all that well yet but he does appear to be a progressive sort.
Wicked Style – Another Juvenile retread, he looked great prior to the race so I can’t toss him based on a bad performance in the slop.
Atoned – Although Cave’s Valley handled him with ease and Court Vision overcame trouble to deny him atoned does appear to be a solid competitor who might turn the corner and become a good one.
Etched – If he were staying in the US he’d be in the top 5 but preparation in Dubai will leave him with a lot to do. He has been phenomenal so far and Anak Nakal a horse he teased in his last start came back to win a G-2.
Country Star – The only filly I’m really watching to have an impact against the boys. Most likely she’ll be run conservatively but it’s possible that she might get a chance against the boys. She certainly appears to have plenty of talent.
Fidelio – Probably Frankel’s best 2yo male, I believe he even tabbed him as his Derby horse. He won his first start well then looked green when losing to War Pass but he still finished second that day ahead of Pyro. Incidentally he and War Pass are the only horses to have beaten Pyro. Did not show much in the Breeders Futurity but dirt may be the key with him.
Alaazo – A Zayat maiden winner for Mott. He won his 8f debut after an extremely eventful trip. He broke slow and endured some bumping that basically caused him to blow the first turn. He made a strong middle move then ran down the loose leader on Monmouth’s speed favoring summer strip. The figure was modest but this horse is bred to get better and better being by AP Indy out of Atelier. He was obviously injured after that start but hopefully he comes back in good order. He is my number prospect among horses who have not yet run in a stakes race.
J Be K – Another Zayat undefeated maiden winner except this one runs for Baffert. He got a huge figure in his first start and it will be interesting to see what he does next.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
