Sophomore Speed

Somewhat overshadowed by exploits of Rachel Alexandra and the Derby winner are the sprinters from this year crop of three year olds. The strength of any crop should be based on more than just the Triple Crown contestants. This year the group of sprinters we have is unusually strong and may even prove to be of greater quality than the routers. Below is a brief highlight of some of the best 3yo sprinters of 2009.

Capt. Candyman Can - He is probably the class leader of this little sophomore subset. I focus more on his class than his speed because his speed figures have actually been a bit slow but he's finished ahead of two horses on this list already. He has also never lost a race at 7f or shorter. He has great tactical speed and is a difficult horse to out finish at sprinting distances. A very good and very classy horse.

Everyday Heroes - He is still something of an unknown quantity. He is undefeated in 4 starts all at 6f. He only got started in February of this year and he's already won a stakes and twice beaten older horses in allowances. No one has seriously challenged him. At Pimlico this past weekend he earned a 106 Beyer for destroying his rivals in the Hirsch Jacobs. It wasn't the toughest field but he beat them easily and outran the stakes quality older horses just two races later. Being by Awesome Again I'm sure the temptation to stretch him out will be too great to resist but he's already so good at sprinting it means he'll either be a Ghostzapper like monster or much better around one turn than two. I hope they keep him short at Saratoga to face Capt. Candyman Can.

Big Drama - If having a nice looking race record was the primary goal then the Preakness was a bit of a disaster for Big Drama but in reality it was a massive race for a horse that is better suited to one turn races. Big Drama does not have overpowering gate speed but he knows how to win and he can run fast races. I think that 7f and one turn 8f races will eventually prove to be his best game but he'll be dangerous in any sprint races. I suspect his trainer might still put him in some route races because he ran well enough in the Preakness to be tempted by lesser Derby's in states like Pennsylvania and West Virginia. His sprinting form may become a obscured but don't forget that he's a very serious horse around one turn.

This Ones for Phil - When This Ones for Phil transferred to the barn of Dick Dutrow he became a new horse. He has bounced around a few one turn races since coming to Dutrow and I think he is definitely better at 6 and 7f than 8f. It looks like the Met Mile might be next so maybe Dutrow knows best. He earned some massive figures at Gulfstream and I think he is capable of showing that kind of form at other tracks as well. His race in the Withers was good it was just too long. Give him 6f and I think he'll flourish. He may even take to synthetics given his decent race on the Turf. Like many of these sprinters Phil is not a speed crazy front runner. It's a bit of an oddity because young fast horses are usually fast on the front end but all the first four horses mentioned can rate which makes them all the more dangerous.

Cash Refund - If a loss to Capt. Candyman Can is the blackest mark on your resume then you're in good shape. Cash Refund was impressive in his debut where he earned a 92 Beyer but he was breathtaking in his next race when earning a gaudy 110. He was a bit outclassed by Capt. Candyman Can in the Matt Winn stakes but he ran a good second and left the impression that with a bit more time and experience he may be as good or better than any sprinter in the nation. He's not a speed fanatic but he does have ample pace. He needs to learn how to ration his speed a bit better and change leads on time. The raw skills are there he just needs to put it all together.

Zensational - Any conversation about fast 3yo's has to include Zensational the Baffert speedster. It may be folly to get too psyched about a horse that has only run well once in 3 career starts and has never faced stakes company. However if you have the BC Sprint in mind it's worth noting that the one time he ran well it was in a 6f race at Santa Anita. He earned a 104 Beyer for that race and it's one of the best speed figures ever earned in a synthetic sprint race. He didn't show nearly as much on dirt or going a mile, he clearly wants to be fit into the synthetic sprinting niche. Baffert is one of the best in the business at conditioning sprinters.

Rail Trip

The winter is a great time to unearth horses with hidden potential or at least horses with obvious potential that no one has bothered to notice. I spend a good deal of time watching video during racings "off season". Essentially I'm just looking for things that stick out.

Because it's a Tuesday and I can't think of any other topic to pontificate about I thought I'd briefly highlight one horse who really stuck out to me.

I spend way too much time perusing Internet racing sites and it seems like every topic gets covered by multiple sources. But one horse has gone virtually unnoticed. His name is Rail Trip.

Rail Trip is a three year old gelded son of Jump Start out of a Carson City mare. He has the same connections as Declan's Moon, owned by Jay Em Ess Stables and trained by Ron Ellis. He might be the most talented horse that pair have had together since the 2004 Juvenile Champion.

The reason no one has ever heard of him is because he just made his career debut in early November. He isn't two years old so he can't be a classics prospect but his maiden win was one of the most impressive I've ever seen.

I'd encourage everyone to visit Calracing.com and either search for him by name or check out Race #3 on November 7th.

He out-broke the field by almost a length and was two in front before the rest had a chance to gather themselves. He was a tad rank in the early going but he settled down more and more as the race went on. He blitzed though quick fractions of :22.34 and :44.51 before finishing 6f in 1:07.94 under a hand ride. It wasn't just the time, which is the co-fastest 6f time for the meet, but it was also the ease with which he did and the just the way he looked physically. This was a serious performance by a serious racehorse.

He received a meet high 102 Beyer figure for the performance. To achieve a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure in your career debut is a fairly significant accomplishment. I don't have a complete list of horses that have done so but I do know that generally less than three horses achieve it every year. To the best of my knowledge this is the first time a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure has been earned in a synthetic track career debut.

Who knows how far his career will go but for the most part the horses who were good enough to earn triple digit Beyers in their debut found themselves good enough to win Grade 1 races at some point.

Ten Horses To Watch

Curlin is gone so the search for a successor begins. Zenyatta is the obvious one to take up the mantle and of course the Triple Crown stars are always a big draw but what of the lesser known horses in other divisions? Every division has suffered the loss of a star of some kind and there is a vacuum that needs to be filled. Below is a list of ten horses that I'll be keeping a close eye on next year.

Zambezi Sun - Another Juddmonte import to Frankel's barn. He was a G-1 winner in Europe but he suffered through a generally disappointing four year old season. At his best he's 5 lengths better than Champs Elysees. He may well be the best Turf horse in America in 2009.

Desert Key - Freakishly fast but needs to mature a bit. He reminds me a bit of Fabulous Strike as a three year old. If he puts it all together he could be the best sprinter by a mile. He's got the ability to go sub :44 and still be around to fight at the finish.

Tybalt - A Frankel trained Stonerside horse who was imported for the 2008 season. Frankel only got three starts into him. He was never worse than second in those three efforts and finished a fast closing second in the Oak Tree Mile behind Hyperbaric. That was his Graded Stakes debut. Godolphin will likely take over for Frankel so his campaign may not be exclusively American. But this son of Storm Cat and Tuzla has the world at his feet.

Seaspeak - An unlucky headcase of a horse who just might have what it takes to be a top class miler. His antics in his last two races likely cost him the victory but he's shown remarkable consistency in terms of producing a solid effort. He is never well beaten and should really have more wins than just a maiden. He ought to be a dual Graded Stakes winner already.

Ginger Brew - The next in a long line of top class Stronach fillies. Ginger Brew handles all three types of surfaces and is effective from 7f to 10f. Much of her career has been in Canada so far but watch for her to head south of the border for 2009. She might be the best filly in the east.

Into Mischief - He's had a ton of problems in his career but producing big efforts has never been one of them. I don't know if he's a real 10f type but certainly anything from 7f to 9f will be right up his alley. He's got class and good tactical speed. A major player in the handicap division.

Georgie Boy - I was very disappointed to see his 2008 campaign shortened by injury. He was one of the few really exciting three year old prospects. His quick turn of foot should make him able to stretch out further than his breeding might suggest.

Gio Ponti - Another miler, I guess I'm attracted to them. Gio Ponti might be my favorite horse in training after the retirement of Wait A While. I loved him since the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland when he showed such promise as a two year old. He's a killer. I don't think he is best served by attempting races beyond 8f. His results are far more varied at those distances. They should develop him into a specialist. If someone would like to book action on the winner of the 2009 Makers Mark Mile I'd love to play him.

Storm Play - Undefeated in three starts and still virtually unknown. He recently won a minor stakes at Aqueduct in his first try at two turns. He's received some huge figures and he's got an exciting future.

Lantana Mob - This late running sprinter might actually be set for a big year. He loves 6f and is better than you think. He's had a bit of poor fortune in his races but what I like about him is that unlike many other eastern sprinters he has shown ability on a synthetic surface. His closing style is also well suited for success in big Sprint events.

Juvenile Wide Open

Just reading a bit of news and the one thing I'm noticing is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is going to have a lot of horses coming in off a layoff, many horses who have never run a route of ground and even more who have not tried synthetics. Last time the Juvenile was run at Santa Anita it drew the weakest field in recent memory and true to form a maiden winner (Action This Day) stormed to the front off a fast pace at 26/1.

I'm not about to predict boxcars for this years event since all it takes is one good horse with the proper preparation and Midshipman is probably going to fit that description. But consider how a few of the notables are coming into the race.

Charitable Man - 2 for 2 lifetime but will likely enter off a layoff with no two turn experience and up to this point not even a work on synthetics.

Coronet of a Baron - He's apparently too knocked out to run in the Norfolk so it's straight to the Juvenile. No two turn experience.

Run Away And Hide - He has not been out since the Saratoga Special on August 14th. He hasn't run past 6.5f but his connections are fully committed to sending him to the Juvenile. He might still go in the Breeders Futurity but he's had a problem and may not recover in time.

Azul Leon - Was supposedly set for the Norfolk but there has been no news of his intended participation. Perhaps he will still enter but a few days out there is no buzz on his intentions. He has not run since Aug 10th and of course like all the others on this list he has no two turn experience.

These four contenders would all be in any Juvenile top 10 list and some of them would even be in a top 5. I'm one of those guys who likes to stick with the proven methods of bringing up horses to big races and I must say more and more of these contenders are looking like horses to bet against. I realize that layoffs are not the big deal they used to be but two turn experience is still a very big issue in my mind.

Mini BC Preview

FM Sprint
Probable contenders: Indian Blessing, Intangaroo, Maryfield, Magnificience, Sugar Swirl, Zada Belle, Mistical Plan, Any Limit, By The Light, Lethal Heat

Notable absentees: None

My Top 3
Indian Blessing - Simply the fastest horse in the division so far
Intangaroo - Like synthetics and seems to have a knack for running her best in big events
Lethal Heat - A very consistent performer who loves sprinting on synthetics

FM Turf
Probable contenders: Mauralakana, Halfway To Heaven, Wait A While, Black Mamba, Moonstone, Dynaforce, Pure Clan, Communique, Forever Together, Rutherienne, Precious Kitten, Lady of Venice, Ariege

Notable absentees: Zarkava, Vacare, Nashoba's Key, Ventura

My Top 3
Moonstone - A very good O'Brien filly who seems to fit the mold well
Dynaforce - Unlucky in both North American starts. She might be the best of the home team
Ariege - Brilliant, unexposed but improving all the time

Ladies Classic
Probable contenders: Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Unbridled Belle, Spring Waltz, Tough Tiz's Sis, Music Note, Little Belle

Notable absentees: Proud Spell

My Top 3
Zenyatta - Hard to argue with anything she's done. She simply goes from strength to strength
Tough Tiz's Sis - Has made a decent living from chasing Zenyatta. Quite easily the second best synthetic mare
Music Note - Still an unknown on the surface but her rise to stardom has been quick and she still might improve a great deal

Sprint
Probable contenders: Benny The Bull, Street Boss, Midnight Lute, J Be K, Lucky Island, In Summation, Rebellion, Idiot Proof, Bustin Stones, Abraaj, Desert Key, Kodiak Kowboy

Notable absentees: None

My Top 3
In Summation - Still the benchmark for sprinting on synthetics
Street Boss - He has looked scary in his last few races
Desert Key - Blazing speed, might not be as much of an asset at Santa Anita but a hugely progressive horse

Mile
Probable contenders: Kip Deville, Raven's Pass, Daytona, Monzante, Hyperbaric, One Union, Tam Lin, Cosmonaut, Thorn Song, Whatsthescript, Storm Military

Notable absentees: Ever A Friend, Henrythenavigator, Creachadoir, Tamayuz

My Top 3
Raven's Pass - Possibly a standout if his preparation is right. I'd like to see him win the Celebration Mile this weekend then train up to the Mile
Kip Deville - The North American gold standard. He hasn't done a thing wrong since winning the race last year
Daytona - The best Californian miler since Ever A Friend went down to injury. Needs to get back on track in Del Mar Mile

Turf
Probable contenders: Red Rocks, Dancing Forever, Winchester, Spring House, Duke of Marmalade, Youmzain, Grand Couturier, Einstein

Notable absentees: Better Talk Now, Montmartre

My Top 3
Spring House - Odd choice for a race dominated by Europeans but he loves the course and is a legitimate 12f horse. Could be quite a shocker
Red Rocks - Not many holes in his North American form. Any winner of this race will have a hard time dealing with him
Dancing Forever - Blew it in his last but still a very good horse on firm ground. I like him for this spot more because I think Duke of Marmalade might be past his best by BC time

Classic
Probable contenders: Big Brown, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Well Armed, Go Between, Student Council, Colonel John, Arson Squad, Mast Track, Tiago, Awesome Gem, Mambo In Seattle, Casino Drive

Notable absentees: Curlin, Pyro, Harlem Rocker, Heatseeker, Commentator

My Top 3
Go Between - He loves Santa Anita and always seems to run well on synthetics
Well Armed - Might be the classiest entrant with Curlin out. 10f is a question but speed is dangerous
Henrythenavigator - A wild card but if he can translate his form and stay 10f he will not have many horses in front of him at the line

BC Future Look - FM Turf

Wait A While - She is not the filly she was but on the right day she is still the most brilliant of this group and there is good reason to believe that she could have her best day at Santa Anita on rock hard turf. She has run at Santa Anita twice and both efforts produced brilliant victories with Beyers of 109 and 105.

Pure Clan - I have high hopes for this three year old filly. She is not yet at the level where she could compete with the best of this group but her speed figures will likely improve dramatically once she starts facing better horses. She's got a good turn of foot and a good winning attitude. She has also never lost in 4 tries on the grass. She is not unlike Wait A While as a 3yo in that she seems quite effective on the dirt as well but the Turf is where her real future lies. All she needs is that one big performance to show that she can handle older mares.

Darjina - She's been blighted with seconditis and is by no means certain to participate but I do think she is well suited to this spot. The best cure for a consistent loser is a class drop and although this is a championship event it would be a class drop for her. She is not a classic type filly like Ouija Board or Islington, much more of a miler type like a Banks Hill but she is every bit as capable as each one of that trio. She would be the race favorite if she came.

Mauralakana - The best of an average lot so far. A winner of 4 of 5 starts this year Mauralakana has been the model of consistency and she is the horse they'll all have to deal with. The trouble with her is that she is solid but unspectacular. While she is the most consistent performer in the division her best races don't match up with those of the more brilliant names on this list. I think she might also prefer 11f as opposed to the 10f this race will be this year.

Lady Of Venice - I had all but pigeon-holed her as a miler by the close of last season. But a year older and in a new barn she no longer seems to have the speed to get it done at a mile. I still think 10f is stretching it a bit but the 10f FM turf events often go to fillies who look more like milers rather than the real classic types. Her lone effort at the distance was not poor by any means. Look for connections to stretch her out in the Beverly D followed by either the Yellow Ribbon. She may not win those races but if she runs well she will be very dangerous in the BC. I actually liked her Cash Call Mile performance very much.

Dynaforce - I heard some people suggesting that she didn't stay when second in the Diana. I think that's rubbish. She stays 9f and indeed she'll stay 10f. Her problem in the Diana was that Kent D was riding to beat Wait A While and left her completely exposed to a late run. He had to move early because it looked like Pletcher's horse was going to sweep past but when Wait A While sputtered Dynaforce was all alone in front. When Forever Together came late for the win you could see Kent D slash his whip down in frustration. He knew he got it wrong. Dynaforce will do much better if ridden on her own.

Precious Kitten - I thought she was the outstanding Female Turf horse of 2007 but she's had almost no campaign at all this term. The distance is a question mark but she is bred to go 10f and she has not proven that she can't. She is brilliant enough to win this race and that puts her ahead of many others.

Dreaming Of Anna - No one really talks about her but there are few tougher on the grass. I have my doubts about her at 10f but I think speed does hold up better at Santa Anita than at deep courses like Arlington or Belmont in the fall. Her race in the Beverly D will give us clues. If she happens to win that race then she may well go to the head of the line.

Rosinka - A real longshot who showed some fight last year when a narrow second to Lahudood in the Flower Bowl. She has not gotten back to that level yet this term but she is capable on her day. A very tough and feisty horse at her best. She likes to wing it on the front end but probably would prefer 11 furlongs to 10.

Black Mamba - I'm not really a huge fan of her chances. I think she is beating extremely weak opposition at present. Still she is the most consistent Californian Turf router this year and that has to at least place her among the 10 most likely winners. I like that she always brings her race I don't like that she is just not very fast.

O'Brien Invasion

I'm sure most of you have heard by now that Aiden O'Brien recorded his 16th Group 1 win of the season a few hours ago with Henrythenavigator. O'Brien has always been one of Europe's top trainers but his stable is in unbelievable form lately. Frankel's record of 25 G-1's in a season is surely under threat. Here is a list of his G-1 wins so far.

April 27: Duke Of Marmalade - Prix Ganay, Longchamp
May 3: Henrythenavigator - 2000 Guineas, Newmarket
May 24: Henrythenavigator - Irish 2000 Guineas, Curragh
May 25: Duke Of Marmalade - Tattersalls Gold Cup, Curragh
May 25: Halfway To Heaven - Irish 1000 Guineas, Curragh
June 6: Soldier Of Fortune - Coronation Cup, Epsom
June 17: Haradasun - Queen Anne Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 17: Henrythenavigator - St James's Palace Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 18: Duke Of Marmalade - Prince of Wales's Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 19: Yeats - Gold Cup, Royal Ascot
June 29: Frozen Fire - Irish Derby, Curragh
July 5: Mount Nelson - Coral-Eclipse, Sandown
July 13: Moonstone - Irish Oaks, Curragh
July 26: Duke Of Marmalade - King George, Ascot
July 27: Mastercraftsman - Phoenix Stakes, Curragh
July 30: Henrythenavigator - Sussex Stakes, Goodwood

Ten different horses have combined to capture these 16 G-1's and aside from Haradasun and Halfway to Heaven all of them are still active and in search of more G-1 contests to plunder.

As many of you know among European trainers Aiden O'Brien is one of the most eager and frequent to ship horses to America. His first invasion of this year will come in the Arlington Million and it's quite possible that he'll have a horse in most major Turf events in the fall. He often tries the Keeneland Mile and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic but with the abundance of stars he's got he may send even more this year.

Let's look at a breakdown of some of his stars who might be contesting races in America.

Duke of Marmalade - I wrote about him in my BC Turf Future Look. On that occasion he was still somewhat under the radar but I always thought he was the best horse in the stable. Now he's won 4 G-1's on the trot and is the hottest older horse in Europe. This horse is tough as nails and he acts on any ground although firm seems to be his favorite. I think he'd appreciate American courses very much. He has the making of an odds on favorite for the Turf. My only concern with him is that he is likely to come to America after a long and strenous season which coupled with the travel could leave him susceptible to a bounce like Dylan Thomas. If O'Brien gives him a break this summer or fall he could be unstoppable.

Soldier Of Fortune - He began the year as the stable #1 and has lost that title more through the brilliance of the Duke rather than poor efforts on his part. He is not as quick as Duke of Marmalade, he accelerates gradually. He also appears to prefer a bit of cut in the ground. To me he looks like more of a Canadian International horse than a BC Turf horse. The course and weather should suit him better but he is absolutely top drawer and may well be the Arc winner if he can overcome the Aga Khan's duo.

Henrythenavigator - He is the horse of the hour with a recent win in the Sussex. Four G-1's in a row and he's drawing favorable comparisons to Rock of Gibraltar. I personally believe that he is every bit as good as the Rock. He is more suspect on soft ground but on the firm he is unbelievable. He deserves to be odds on in any Turf mile event he contests. I doubt we'll see him in the Keeneland Mile but he'd surely have it at his mercy as well as the BC Mile is he chooses to go. I know Rock of Gibraltar lost the BC Mile but let's be real. He was the best horse in the race and deserved to win. Henrythenavigator will also be the best horse in the race if he chooses the Mile. Unfortunately for those looking for a single he seems more likely for the Classic. In the Classic he's a total crapshot. We have no indication of how he'd like it. Kingmambo does decently with his European synthetic progeny but really we know very little. At this point I would not take him in the Classic. He has never been beyond a Mile and coupled with the new surface it's too much all at once.

Mount Nelson - He is set for the Arlington Million and is possibly the weakest of all O'Brien's G-1 winners. His last start, a win in the Eclipse was not only his first G-1 win in open company it was also his first win since he was a 2yo. He looks like a horse who slightly prefers soft ground. Overall I think he is a bet against on American soil.

Frozen Fire - He is slightly second tier but exactly the type to contest a race like the Joe Hirsch or the Canadian international. Ballydoyle often sends a horse with his profile for one of those races. I think he's good and developing but inconsistent. He'll likely be a nice 4yo but for now you need to take each race on a case by case basis. I think he'll take another G-1 but he is by no means certain to love America. I'd demand a price on him.

Moonstone - We really don't know much about her at this point. With just 4 lifetime starts and a single win she would seem to have plently of scope for improvement. The interesting thing about her is that she finished second as a maiden in the Epsom Oaks, then broke her maiden next time with a win in the Irish Oaks. There aren't many fillies who do that. Her pedigree suggests a slight preference for soft ground but she is closely related to L'Ancresse who of course finished second in the BC FM Turf at Santa Anita. She might be a horse who really needs 12f to show her best so I'd be leery about the FM Turf until we see more from her.

Mastercraftsman - He is O'Brien's youngest G-1 winner and after handling Art Connoisseur so easily in the Phoenix he seemingly has the world at his feet. He looks bred to be a miler and given the speed and acceleration he's shown already I'd say a mile will eventually be perfect for him. It's tough to say whether or not Coolmore would want their best 2yo coming to America. They did send Tomahawk, Hold That Tiger and of course Johannesburg but those horses had American pedigrees. Mastercraftsman is not nearly as American but there is now the Juvenile Turf on offer. I still suspect they won't send him. They'll have some second stringers to contest that race.

Future Look - BC Sprint

Of all the divisions that coincide with a Breeders' Cup race the Sprint is set to be the highest quality. As I've sought to compile Top 10 lists for other BC races the top horses seemed to readily rise to the fore. In some cases I had difficulty even finding 10 horses that I'd recommend for the Breeders' Cup. In the case of the Sprint I've found no less than 16 off hand. That means a ton of good sprinters will get no mention here. That does not mean I don't think they're top quality animals. It only means that I suspect that at 6f on Santa Anita's Cushion Track there will be others that are better.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

Street Boss - He's the new kid with old connections. Bruce Headley expertly campaigned Kona Gold for so many years and Street Boss has the ability to develop into that kind of horse. He is still a long way off of that but he reminds me very much of Kona Gold before he became the monster we all remember. I'd like to see him hone his speed a little. Coming late and wide is not a great tactic for consistent success. He also needs to step forward on the speed figure scale. Beyers are lower on synthetic tracks but others have achieved figures in the 105-109 area, his current top is 103.

In Summation - He is the most accomplished synthetic sprinter of all time. That's perhaps not saying as much as it suggests given that synthetic tracks are fairly new but he is 5-4-1-0 on all weather surfaces. His only reverse was a half length loss at Hollywood. He's got figures of 107 and 108 which are huge in relation to what most horses earn in those races. He has fallen off the radar with an extended break from action but look for him to return in one of the Del Mar sprint stakes and then the Ancient Title. His connections want him fresh for the BC so he will likely just have one or two more starts.

Barbecue Eddie - He might not be as fast as Fabulous Strike, but on synthetic surfaces he is the most trusted speed. Eddie is a very tough customer who gave In Summation some torrid battles as well as running a good 4th in Dubai. He looked very good in his comeback effort and should give Street Boss all he can handle at Del Mar. I'd like to see Eddie break through and win a stakes race prior to the Breeders' Cup.

Idiot Proof - He was the best of the rest in the Breeders' Cup and has oddly settled into that position in his subsequent races. Idiot Proof is obviously class and his 3rd behind In Summation and Barbecue Eddie in the El Conejo was very good. But then he somehow lost to Tribesman before running a very good second in Dubai. He needs to break out of the funk he's in but he still remains a very good Californian sprinter. He could even be the race favorite if he starts winning again.

Benny The Bull - Despite his seemingly invincible nature I do not view him as the horse to beat for the Sprint. His lone experiment on the surface did not yield great results and despite his great success this year he has not been facing the toughest horses. He has faced just two of the ten on this list and none of his other competition was even a consideration. Closers rarely win every time they run. There are too many variables, and yet he is winning every time he runs. I suspect that things will eventually turn against him. This little blurb has been mostly negative, despite the reasons I can see for getting him beat I still think he is among the 5 most likely winners of the Sprint. He's fast, he's classy and he's consistent you can't ask for much more.

Fabulous Strike - I'm not sure if there is a faster gate horse in the world. He is a monster in the first 4f of any race and that makes him dangerous even though he is not tested on the surface and eastern horses don't have the greatest record in western Breeders' Cups. the Sprint is about speed and he is the speed of the speed.

J Be K - He has never lost a race at less than a mile. He's got brilliant speed and the ability to hold back just slightly. There is some debate about if he'll handle the track or even if he'll be given the chance considering Asmussens reticence to put his stars on synthetic tracks and Zayat stables well documented criticism of anything but real dirt.

Lucky Island - I'm not convinced that he's a true 6f specialist, but neither was Midnight Lute and Lucky Island at least has set a new Beyer high each time he's run 6f. 7f looks like his best trip but he's no slouch at any distance and we may not have seen his best yet. You'll notice that most eastern sprinters are on the bottom half of this list. That's because it has proven to be very difficult to go west and win in the Breeders' Cup. Still this horse has the look of a possible freak. I look forward to seeing him face some top class opposition at Saratoga.

Euroears - He had me quite excited earlier in the spring as he developed into a truly top class sprinter. He has never been beaten and he handles turf and dirt equally well. He has had an injury which will make it tight for him to compete on BC day but he's got the quality. He is one of those horses with an air of invincibility. No matter what pace scenario or tactics used against him he finds himself getting to the lead as if it were no great trouble. I really hope he comes back at the same level.

Midnight Lute - The defending champion barely made this list ahead of some others like Black Seventeen and Elite Squadron. It is obviously not that he lack the talent but I think he is not as effective on synthetic tracks, his preparation will be highly suspect and this version of the Sprint promises to be a much better race than last years. Baffert has struggled to get him sound and now he will have just one race before the BC. That does not leave the Lute much leeway. He has to be perfect and brilliant.

Future Look - BC Ladies Classic

The future look series I'm doing is more or less like the numerous top 10 lists you'll find for the Derby. Except I'm not going to update them on a weekly basis. The idea is just to give you an idea of some of the best horses to follow in the build up to the Breeders' Cup I've already done the Mile, Classic and Turf.

The race formerly known as the Distaff has been a very tough one for me to beat personally. In fact I've never had a Distaff winner in 12 years of handicapping the Breeders' Cup. I usually find myself going for horses like Elloluv, Sharp Cat, Banshee Breeze and Happy Ticket. They performed well but couldn't manage a victory. Despite my lack of single selection winners I'm confident that I can point in the right direction when naming 10 different horses.

Spring Waltz - She is latest model to come out of the impressive Stronach breeding program. After a good but low key start to her career she exploded at Gulfstream earning impressive wins and the highest Beyer Speed Figures in the division. Surface should not be a problem for her and I honestly think that she is as good as anyone if not better. That includes Ginger Punch and Zenyatta.

Zenyatta - Many people will see her as unbeatable in the Ladies Classic even this far from the race. Personally I don't believe that any horse is unbeatable. There is always a condition or circumstance that could result in seeing them defeated. She just hasn't encountered it yet. There is no guarantee that she will encounter it in the Ladies Classic either though. Her huge strides have not yet found a match but perhaps she might be more vulnerable to a slow pace. The horse to beat in the division, no question about that, but don't concede the contest just yet.

Tough Tiz's Sis - I think a lot of people will overlook her no matter how well she does over the summer but the key with her is that the Breeders Cup is at Santa Anita. She is 6-3-3-0 on All Weather tracks and despite the fact that she was handled easily by Zenyatta I think she could still produce an effort good enough to win on the right day. She'll have home court advantage over all the eastern fillies and her speed makes her a key player.

Zaftig - I don't know how good she is but she certainly looks freaky. Her last two races have been unbelievable. There are two big questions about her though, will she handle two turns and is she picky about surfaces? She does not seem to care for Aqueduct much so that's a concern when considering Santa Anita. On raw form though she looks like the best 3yo filly.

Ginger Punch - She is no longer the "now" horse of the division with her failure to beat Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom, but she still has every chance. She was up against it that day while setting the pace. I have always had the feeling that she is really at her best around one turn but she is a top class mare no matter how you look at it and she also has good form on Polytrack.

Hystericalady - Her connections are on record saying that All Weather surfaces are not her best and generally I think her performances lend weight to that. However she is still not far behind the best on any surface. She is a very consistent performer with good tactical speed. I don't think she fully stays 9f but even with the lack of stamina she managed to run second last year.

Proud Spell - She has never really put a foot wrong in her whole career. She is ranked a bit lower because I'm not sure how she'll like it out west. She did not care much for Keeneland. As well as I'm slightly concerned about her preparation. Jones is looking at sweeping the Mother Goose, CCA Oaks and Alabama then likely giving her a break. If he decides to keep her on the bench all the way to the BC then I'd be against her slightly. Hopefully she comes through her summer program well and still gets a fall prep.

Santa Teresita - We have not yet seen the best of this fast improving filly. She only broke her maiden at the end of 2007. In 4 starts this year she has gone 4-2-2-0 with losses coming to Tough Tiz's Sis and Zenyatta. Those aren't easy horses to beat in your first graded stakes. She was not giving up at all in either contest. Expect her to win some nice races this year and maybe just improve enough to handle the big guns.

Unbridled Belle - I really don't know how she'd do in the Ladies Classic but I am convinced that she'll wreak havoc in the build up to it. She has always been a horse who was somewhat picky about racing surfaces. She loves Delaware and is better there than anywhere else. In her debut this year she looked better than she ever has, even in her best races at Delaware. All Weather tracks are a big concern but she has the talent.

Ginger Brew - The Canadian filly has a lot of maturing to do before she could be regarded as Distaff quality but she is also somewhat under developed. She has never been worse than second in 7 starts on Turf, Dirt and Polytrack. Her career Beyer top is 94, which is not huge but consider that at this point in the season horses like Flute, Exogenous, Ashado and Stellar Jayne had not yet shown the necessary speed to beat older mares either. We know that Stronach has had an unbelievable run with fillies. Much like the Phipps enjoyed in the 90's. Most of his fillies like Ginger Punch, Citronnade and Sugar Swirl did not mature this quickly. If Ginger Brew goes on improving she will be extremely tough.

Future Look - BC Classic

I'm continuing my series on possible good future bets for the BC races or at least some horses to follow in the run up to the big event.

The Breeders' Cup Classic will be, in my opinion, a very different type of affair. The fact that the surface will be an All Weather one should seriously alter the type of horses who are successful and also the type of horses who are pointed to the race.

BC Classic

Heatseeker - He is the best All Weather horse in the nation. He performs at the highest level and is extremely consistent. He showed a new dimension in his latest start and I think as the year goes on he will confirm the form he showed. Tiago his arch rival is not included in my list at all only because I don't see anyway Heatseeker would lose to him in a race like this. He's got speed but prefers to come from off the pace. It's a deadly combination, he also owns the highest route Beyers earned at Santa Anita.

Einstein - He is one horse I like a bit for the BC turf but I put him barely in the top 10 for that race while the Classic looks right up his alley. 10f is his best distance and we know he's got an abundance of class. Turf horses have been quite successful switching over to the surface and we already know he handles dirt and Turf decently. Why not an all weather surface? Horses like Go Between and Heatseeker were turf horses at one point and Einstein looks 10 lengths better than that pair on the sod. If he takes to this surface at all and if his connections choose this race he could be a good thing.

Go Between - At one point earlier in this season it was wondered whether any horse could take him on an all weather surface. Of course Heatseeker then beat him in the Big Cap and has gone on to national prominence but Go Between nearly had him that day and many blamed the ride. He loves Santa Anita and despite the fact that we don't see him in action right now he still has a huge shot.

Well Armed - This is the most under rated speed horse in the nation. I'm sure there are a bunch who think that he's not up to winning a race like this but I see him as extremely dangerous. Let's not forget that he too matched up very favorably against Heatseeker in the spring and then went out and ran third in the Dubai World Cup. He was no match for Curlin but still it displayed a real usefulness and class. I suspect we'll see him in out of the way races like the San Diego instead of the Gold Cup or Pacific Classic but he ought to be the horse who controls the pace on BC day.

Big Brown - The aura of invincibility may be gone but he's still a dashed fine horse. He does not lay over the contenders here like did in the Triple Crown but you need to respect his talent. He's handled turf and dirt so most likely the surface is not a huge concern. The concern with him is will he come back to his best form and then will he also improve to the level he'll need to be at to beat the rest of these.

Colonel John - He looked second class on dirt in the Derby but he does love Santa Anita and rates a chance on the surface. He has loads of improvement to come, far more than Big Brown but he is the type of horse who could do it. The distance should not be a problem and he definitely has the breeding. His preparation for the Classic begins soon in the Swaps.

Henrythenavigator - There will likely be more Europeans than just this one coming over for the Classic but this one looks the best bet at this stage. Coolmore loves to have a tilt at the Classic with miler types and this horse looks truly special. He should get 10f with ease and we know he's got a great turn of foot and bags of class. All that remains to be seen is whether he likes the surface and whether or not connections choose this race over the Mile.

Out of Control - He is a bit of a "tweener" on the grass but would likely fit well in the Classic. He is still coming into his own and connections are just sort of finding out what he's best at. He has a good running style for the main track. It often sees him flat footed when it counts on the grass but it could serve him well on Cushion Track.

Georgie Boy - He was brilliant in the spring and although I doubt him at 10f he may be the kind of horse that gets more stamina as he matures. Of course coming back from injury is his main concern at this stage but he certainly rates a chance.

Curlin - Curlin would be at the head of this list if I thought there was a good chance he would run. He is the best horse in the world and would likely take to the surface and handle anyone who opposes him. However his connections are talking about avoiding the Classic and going for the Arc. I have him on the list because they still might have a change of heart. We don't know how the Turf experiment will play itself out it could be that plans for the Arc get scrapped and does wind up defending his title. He is too good a horse not to include in a list like this.

Future Look - BC Turf

The period after the Belmont is the beginning of the road to the Breeders' Cup. The Three year olds are almost the sole focus until June but the best and highest quality racing happens in the build up to the Breeders' Cup and in the main event itself.

On the Derby trail there are a myriad of Top 10's and Derby Dozen's to help give perspective and maybe alert you to some up and coming stars but for the Breeders' Cup there is very little of that type of thing. I'll look to fill that gap a little. A few weeks back I took a look at some of the top contenders for the BC Mile and today I'll do the BC Turf.

As a side note a great way to keep track of the top contenders for the Breeders' Cup races is the TCR standings. Their aim is to accurately assess a horse's accomplishments and boil it down to one number. Over the many years they've been in use they have proven to be quite accurate.

Breeders' Cup Turf

Soldier of Fortune - He is the best middle distance horse in one of the most powerful stables in the world. Coolmore always sends a strong team to the Breeders' Cup and this horse may head that group. He was a very good 3yo winning several stakes including the Irish Derby but he did seem just a step behind championship class. Turning four may have fixed that particular problem as he was very good in the Coronation Cup. Do not be surprised if this horse ends up being the odds on favorite on Breeders' Cup day. He has all the tools to become the highest profile horse in Europe.

Ramonti - He is not a recognized 12f horse but he does not have a poor record at the distance. He was actually beaten just a head in the Italian Derby which was his only try at the distance. Not a poor effort and we all know that American courses require less stamina. Falbrav was beaten by two noses in the last BC Turf at Santa Anita and he was much more of a miler. Ramonti is a classy street fighter. He has only been worse than second twice in a 19 race career. He has already won G-1's in 3 different nations and we know he has no trouble travelling. He is a huge threat if Godolphin decide to send him for this race.

Duke of Marmalade - Another Ballydoyle hotpot underlining both the strength of that operation and of the European challenge in this race overall. They always believed he was a good horse and he was campaigned aggressively as a 3yo. He has run in 8 straight G-1 events. Despite being placed well over his head on many occasions he was never worse than 4th. As a 4yo he has shaken off the bridesmaid complex and has won two G-1's in a row. Some may still see him as second string behind Soldier of Fortune and while his reputation may never be as high that does not mean he couldn't beat him head to head.

Spring House - His name does not immediately come to mind when you think of the titans of the Turf but he is already basically fast enough to beat his North American peers at the distance. The trip to Dubai was ambitious and he did not too badly to run 7th. At Santa Anita he will be a tough horse to handle. He is 2 for 2 on the course, both races coming at 12f and his two highest career Beyer figures were achieved in those races. He is North America's top hope.

Youmzain - He has become Europe's Better Talk Now in many ways. He has run second in a ton of high profile races and has become loved for his late running ways. Always a threat in eah race he runs. We know he has the capability to win virtually any race. He may lack the mindset at present but you never know how a a trip to North America might shake him up.

Getaway - He put in an ugly race in the Coronation Cup on Epsom Derby weekend but prior to that he looked quite good. It's possible that he just didn't handle the unique course at Epsom. Andre Fabre is a master conditioner and this horse has flashed talent good enough to win at the highest level. There is much to like.

Casual Conquest - Most recently third in the Epsom Derby behind New Approach he has a lot of upside. The Derby was just his 3rd career start so he should get much better. Dermot Weld is well known for his willingness to ship his horses around so there is a good chance we'll see him if he's healthy.

New Approach - Epsom Derby winner and a horse of considerable talent. I'm not sure if 12f is his best distance but in North America he would handle it fine. He always gives his best effort and he's a tough customer. Hopefully they lighten up his campaign in the summer to have him at his best for the fall.

Dancing Forever - I think Dancing Forever is the best Eastern turf horse in America at the 12f distance. Eastern horses do not typically do as well going west for the Breeders' Cup but he is as good as any.

Einstein - He is a very classy horse, I think the distance is against him a bit, that's why I have him ranked lower than some others. But if you're judging pure class he's got a great chance. I like his tactical speed as well. My concern is that they don't use him up too much over the summer.

Future Look - BC Mile

Despite the fact that the Triple Crown is in full swing I find myself rather apathetic towards the buildup to what should be a one horse race.

Instead my energies have been focused on the buildup to the Breeders' Cup. Yes even at this early stage! I spend a good deal of time working on statistical models for the established Breeders' Cup races very similar to the Triple Crown 20-20 system. The system for the Breeders' Cup debuted in 2007 and did reasonably well but as I continue to learn more about this game some things need to be adapted. Anyway this post is not really about my project although that clearly occupies a prominent space in my mind at the present. What I wanted to do was write a brief profile on the horses I think might be ones to watch out for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Why the Mile? Because it happens to be my favorite Breeders' Cup race and I've just spent the last week studying it.

Ever A Friend - If I were called to put down a future bet on the Mile right now, this would be the horse. I know he just lost to Daytona but he is definitely good enough to turn the tables if he were to be ridden from off the pace. The loss will only make his price higher when it counts as long as he doesn't blow it by winning a BC prep impressively. He loves Santa Anita and is definitely a pure miler. It's a shame it took switching barns to and 6 years to isolate his preference. He will likely get the summer off and will have a maximum of two more races before the Mile. Don't let the inactivity cool you on his chances. It's all by design and it's a good design.

Kip Deville - He's the defending champ and he's going to be tough to beat. What I dislike about BC winners though is that after the race everyone assumes they should never lose again. Look at his record, this horse is capable of losing anytime but he's still very dangerous when it counts. Connections are taking the notion of a light campaign to a new level with just 3 starts planned all year long. Not a lot of room for error with a schedule like that.

Daytona - Unquestionably a good horse, I initially was against him for the Mile because he seemed to be too good at longer distances and successful milers rarely are. He reminds me a bit of Aragorn who eventually finished second in the Mile. I love that he showed a new dimension in stalking the pace in the Shoemaker Mile. My one concern is the type of campaign he'll get. I don't want to see him running huge numbers through the summer. The horses that do always get well bet in the Breeders Cup and they usually fail to reproduce that form.

Cosmonaut - I love a horse that can hide good form in plain site because everyone has stopped looking. The smart money has played against him for years except in fields that were hopelessly over matched. He'd always find a way to lose, he has not won a photo in any race of his career because he generally quits when challenged. However the lovable loser has turned the page in my opinion and his last two races. Since switching to the Serpe barn I think he's found a way to work past his mental blockage. His first start of the year he was facing an easy field but one member of that field decided to have a career day and pressed him hard all the way down the lane. Cosmanaut responded gamely and for the first time in his life he repelled the challenge and edged away. Next time out it was the Maker's Mark Mile and a very tough field. He had virtually the worst trip imaginable in a race like this but he again came on gamely for 4th after finishing 8th seemed more likely. His record at a flat mile on the grass is deceptively good. It reads 8-2-2-1 but the Makers Mark Mile where he was beaten by 3 lengths after a horrible trip represents his worst performance at the distance. Many of the times he contested a Mile he established a new career Beyer high. He's a closet miler who likely won't even run a mile again until either the BC itself or the Kelso.

Hyperbaric - I had high hopes for this Canani trainee and still do in some respect. I think he's a big talent and a natural miler but he clearly has mental issues to work through. He was in a good position in the Shoemaker until he started losing ground on the far turn and it looked as if he may finish last but then he surged again and just missed getting Ever A Friend. He had previously just been beaten by Daytona in a photo so there is no question that on his best day he has the talent but I'm convinced we haven't really seen his best day. I'm not sure what it'll take to get his best race out of him but he needs to learn how to change leads on cue, run in a straight line and stop running just in spots. If he puts all that together he could easily win this race.

Vacare - Is there an official title for the "best horse in active training that no one remembers" because she might be the top contender for that award. She's 8-6-1-1 for her career, her only losses came to Wait A While at Saratoga and Cittronade and Price Tag at Hollywood. Her win in last year's First Lady was what really put her on the radar for this race. She beat a dead game Precious Kitten that day. She produced a slashing move to pull on level terms then simply out gamed a horse who was extremely difficult to beat last year. Vacare has only run a mile twice but both were very good races. She is working well for a return, perhaps the Cash Call Mile is her first target. It would not shock me to see her do well, even against the boys.

Creachadoir - Europe's best hope at moment for this race. Oddly enough a European has not won the Mile since it was run at Santa Anita. Creachadoir is not brilliant but he definitely good enough to run with all the horses above. He's one of those solid, adapt to anything, type horses. American racing would suit him very well.

Rio de La Plata - By years end I suspect that this horse will be Europe's chief challenger for the Mile. Ramonti and Henrythenavigator are more likely to contest a race like the Classic, I'd be shocked if either ended up in this race. Rio de la Plata still has maturing to do, he's a little shy of the requisite level of form to win a race like the BC Mile but he's just had one start since a very good juvenile campaign. What I like is his build and quickness. It's not as much of an asset in Europe where powerful horses can dominate the straight uphill miles. In America quickness like his can leave his rivals gasping for breath in the blink of an eye. I think you'll see him campaigned more in France because those courses suit him better. It's no coincidence that primarily French campaigned milers have outperformed British ones by a good margin.

Tariq - Tariq is a horse I always wanted to see stepped up to a mile last year. In fact I liked him for the BC Mile last year but his connections didn't go that route. He tried 8f last time out and ran a good, traffic impeded, third behind Creachadoir. He loves to swoop from the back so he's always vulnerable to traffic problems but I expect we'll see him in most of the big races for milers in Europe so if he's good enough he won't be a secret and if he's not we'll see it clearly.

Phoenix Tower - Another horse who recently lost to Creachadoir in the G-1 Lockinge but he can readily forgiven. It was just his 5th career start and his first try in G-1 company. He ran a great second and it was a bit of a shame to see him suffer his first career loss. He may not stay at a mile, possibly preferring 10f but if his connections (Juddmonte Farms and Henry Cecil by the way) decide to make him a miler he should be tough.

Horses to Oppose

This is probably detrimental to objective handicapping but I like to sift through the final preps and identify high profile horses that I would not use in the Breeders Cup. Either because of the way they ran in the prep or because the prep does not change the fact that they aren't suited to the BC race.

Juvenile Fillies
Indian Blessing - Without even seeing the rest of the field I'm pretty sure that if she's a winner on BC day I'll be a loser. I thought the way she finished the Frizette was terrible. Another turn and an extra 1/16th won't be good news for her. Add in the fact that she's quite inexperienced and is a bit speed crazy as well and you've got a solid bet against prospect.

Juvenile
Tale Of Ekati - He is one of the more talented horses going to the BC Juvenile and I do fear tossing him. However I very much dislike the way he's being brought into the race. The long layoff off a 7f race is not a great choice when the Juvenile is being run around two turns. I could dump Kodiak Kowboy for the same reason but he's a bit more of an obvious toss.

Mile
After Market - The Mile is a race for specialists and After Market, although talented, is no specialist. He is not nearly as effective at 8f as he is beyond that distance. I think he's simply poor value because his big reputation will encourage some support at the windows.

Sprint
Midnight Lute - He will come into the Sprint with the biggest Beyer Speed Figure last time out and a fearsome reputation. But like the Mile the Sprint is a race that is usually won by horses who excel at the specific distance. Midnight Lute has not run at 6f since the second race of his career. Baffert himself has already said that he doesn't know if 6f will be his game. The Cigar Mile is already penciled in as his season ending target and I wonder if this more just taking a shot. I'm also not in love with the fact that his huge figure virtually stands in isolation.

FM Turf
Lahudood - Personally I didn't like her Flower Bowl all that much. I thought her success had more to do with the main contenders failing to fire. I think she's a pretty safe horse to drop.

Distaff
Ginger Punch - I'd love it if she went off as the favorite in this race. Given the upsets we've had recently she might just be the horse who gets the most attention. I think that she wants no part of two turns against high class opposition. Indian Vale repelled her soundly in the Beldame after she made a bold bid for the lead. It's hard to see her getting past Indian Vale, Hystericalady and Lady Joanne and still having enough to hold off Lear's Princess, Octave and Unbridled Belle. My bet is that she does not even get past the first group.

Turf
Better Talk Now - I don't want to slag the old champ, he's a fine horse but the field is coming up light and as of now I can only name 4 likely starters in this race. Of the 4 he's the one I feel most comfortable about tossing. Monmouth has never really been his cup of tea and I think the injuries and halted campaign he's had this year will make it tough for him to run as well as he has in the past.

Classic
Hard Spun - Hard Spun is a tricky sort because there is no question that this horse is not a quitter. Even if he gets passed he still stays on. He is a good horse to use underneath but I really can't see him beating this group. He simply isn't as good as Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and even Any Given Saturday. Most likely not all of those horses will beat him but at least one of them will.

Oddball Horses

I wanted to take this chance just to highlight some horses who I like for the Breeders Cup who may not be considered real contenders at this stage or for some reason or another they aren't considered to have a great shot.

Juvenile Fillies - A To The Croft
Ken McPeek trains this daughter of Menifee and I'm really excited to see how she stretches out. Like many 2yo's she struggles with running in spots. She does not really level off and drive to the wire but for many of them that comes with experience. What she does have is very good acceleration and the class to perform well even with her difficulties. She won first out then came back to run second in a pair of stakes at Saratoga. Both times she made a good move on the turn before flattening out for a bit then taking off again once the jock got her sorted out. Her next race will likely come in the Alcibiades at Keeneland and I like to see her run closer to the pace. Longer distances often have that effect on 2yo's and it would be ideal to see her close enough so that her move takes her to the front instead of just getting her into contention.

Juvenile - Riley Tucker
One glance at his past performances suggest that he's slow but that's a bigger factor in the odds than it is at the finish. Both Vindication and Street Sense appeared slow prior to the juvenile. This Mott trained son of Harlan's Holiday has very good tactical speed but showed a new dimension when rating in his last. It's true that he didn't win his last race but he put in a winners effort. He looked all class when breaking his maiden then had a tough race in the Saratoga Special. His Arlington-Washington Futurity was an excellent effort where he rated then was just nosed out at the wire. It looked kind of like he pulled up a bit once getting level but he should have another race to correct that, it's not so unusual for a 2yo to have some mental issues. He will likely be in the Champagne or Breeders Futurity. He need not win his next race to be a big factor on BC day, I'd just want to see more professionalism and perhaps a little boost in the figures.

FM Turf - Precious Kitten
I found it hard to come up with a good longshot in this race. I truly think that Honey Ryder is the class, Wait A While is the talent and only Royal Highness (who is doubtful) or a European is likely to beat them. But Precious Kitten has a very "Intercontinental" type look to her. Unquestionably talented with good speed and class but effective at short distances and untried at longer ones. I have no idea how she'll do at longer distances but her breeding suggests that she might handle it. We also know that she's a pretty tough horse to shake off. She goes next in the First Lady just like Bobby's last winner of this race. Could Frankel and Bejarano pull off another front end theft?

Sprint - Attila's Storm
I know he got dusted in his last race by a horse who looks like the favorite. But Attila was never meant to win that race. His trainer only wanted the timing, he conceded that 7f is not his best distance. Attila's Storm has run twice in the Sprint and was pretty solid both times despite being poorly prepared (in my opinion) for both renewals. Finally he's being brought into the race off a good campaign and I think he is the speed of the speed. He is the classiest horse who will contest the pace and those can be tough to pass in the Sprint.

Mile - Tariq
This European trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam has never successfully raced at a mile. He only tried a mile once and he was next to last in the French 2000 Guineas but I think he simply was not on song at that stage in his career. Since then he's taken 3 7f races in a row and has exhibited a very quick turn of foot in those races. That is what makes a miler. It is also worth noting that because of the undulations found on European tracks (like uphill finishes) a mile in Europe is a much greater test of stamina than a mile in America. Generally a horse who handles 7f well in Europe will have no trouble with a mile. He is a firm ground specialist so his intended engagement in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp (where the course seems to be terminally soft) will be viewed carefully but he may not give his best shot. Normally I wouldn't focus on horses without proven form at a mile but the talent seems to be there and this is a spot for selecting horses who are out of the ordinary.

Distaff - Indian Vale
With Rags To Riches out I truly believe that the race is wide open. I give the Californian distaffers a bit of an edge but I think Indian Vale is an overlooked contender. What I love about her is that she's undefeated at 9f and basically ineffective at all other distances. When she gets 9 panels around two turns she has run some very big races and I don't think she needs to improve at all to beat the best Distaffers out there.

Turf - Grand Couturier
This horse really is not very good but I don't think it'll necessarily take a great horse to beat the best Americans. He has already beaten English Channel so on his best form he should be right on par with the best Americans. Even his European form but him just two heads behind the defending champion in this race. The horse has mostly been a flop in North America but I think the way he was campaigned has much to do with that. He was never going to be successful at 8 or 8.5f this horse is a stayer. His best races not surprisingly have been his longest races. I can't see him taking very much money but he has as good a shot as anyone.

Classic - Lewis Micheal
The Classic looks likely to be decided between Street Sense, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun so is there even room for a longshot? I'm actually kind of excited about Lewis Micheal running in the Classic because, like Volponi, Lewis Micheal has some very nice hidden form that the public is likely to overlook. This brother of Dreaming Of Anna has had an odd career. It seems like his connections always thought he was talented but never knew quite what to do with him. He's race short and long on all three surfaces with only sporadic success. He even ran in last year's sprint but I think this race is a much better fit for him. In this year he has sort of become a Polytrack specialist and that is how the public will view him but he hs some very good form routing even on dirt. He has gone a route of ground 5 times on conventional dirt and has compiled a record of 2-1-1 with one 4th place finish. He actually finished less than 3 lengths behind Lawyer Ron in the St Louis Derby. That form was not good enough to win the Classic but I have reason to believe this horse is significantly better than he was last year. Rahy's often get better with age and the way his figures and consistency have improved tells me that he may just be able to run with the best on dirt. His win in the Washington Park Handicap was phenomenal. His BSF of 105 is one of the highest route figures you'll see on that surface, but forget the surface for a moment and just watch the race. He stalked the pace from the inside and when asked he moved away easily and smoothly. It was the kind of race that had to have his owners thinking of trying the Classic. He runs this weekend in the Goodwood and should get a nice class test but again it should not effect his price too much because the race is on a synthetic surface and his dirt form is hidden.

Breeders Cup Contender Past Performances

Breeders Cup Future Look - September

Juvenile Turf
The Europeans will be a huge factor in this race as they are with all turf races in the Breeders Cup. Rio De La Plata has alrady been mentioned as a candidate for this race and he may be very tough to beat but I am very interested in one American. Prussian looked like a G-1 winner in waiting in his first start at Saratoga. There is no telling where he might turn up next but perhaps the biggest turf prep race on this continent will be the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. It's run on the Atto Mile undercard and whether or not Prussian turns up it will likely be the best guide for Turf 2yo's in this country.

Dirt Mile
I think this is shaping up to be the worst race of the weekend. Lawyer Ron is skipping out, Utopia hasnt been heard from in months and Discreet Cat may not be ready in time. Midnight Lute looked like he was tailor made for this race but his connections did not even mention it as a possibility. They seemed to prefer the Cigar Mile which is run a month later. That's bad news for this contest which may end up as a match race between Park Avenue Ball and Teuflesberg.

Filly & Mare Sprint
This race will not necessarily be full of quality but it will be full of interest. La Traviata is headed straight here after 3 fantastic races this year. Unbeaten and unchallenged she will represent a dilemma for most bettors. We simply don't know how good she really is. I would stick with the more proven class of Dream Rush. She is a win machine and is capable of beating any filly sprinter out there. Respect still has to be given to Shaggy Mane who is a 6f specialist running for an underrated trainer who really knows how to point for a spot. Horses like Maryfield, Oprah Winney and Pussycat Doll are poor selections in my opinion. They are either not consistent enough or not good enough. River's Prayer is the only other horse that interests me. She is unbeaten in 5 starts on all three surfaces this year but I can't help but shake the feeling that she isn't really as good as her record. She beat Shaggy Mane but I think on another day that margin could easily be reversed.

Juvenile Fillies
A weak division so far, no one has really come out and made this division thiers. Most of the good looking fillies look like 6f is thier maximum distance. The best prospect looks like Irish Smoke. She can sit off the pace and doesn't mind getting a little dirt in her face, but realistically she is not a solid bet at this stage. I believe that we'll see several more quality fillies emerge. If we don't she'll be the easiest bet of the day.

Juvenile
Unlike the fillies this is a race I love some contenders in this race. The top 3 finishers in the Hopeful for me are superb prospects. Majestic Warrior was bred to be royalty and he looks like he's everything his owners hoped for. I'd like to see a little more early speed out of him but things will all change when he goes a route in a big field. Hopefull we'll see a more conventional type of performance from him. Ready's Image was not disgraced in defeat. I know his numbers regressed in the Hopeful and its not a good sign to see numbers getting smaller as distance increases but I think this was a special case. He was not well served by the way the race setup. Despite his breeding being somewhat on the edge I think he will go two turns and he may prove to be the class benchmark of this crop. Perhaps not the best but the one they'll all have to beat. Maimonides may turn out to be great value since some of the hype will have disapated. It is not an easy task to go straight from 5 1/2f to 7f against better horses, especially when you're blazing on the front. Teach this horse to rate a little and he should be fine. We already know he has some talent. Kodiak Kowboy is a logical contender but he's too workmanlike for me. He'll likely win the Futurity with the same kind of effort and go into the Juvenile without too many holes on paper but I just don't like him, he reminds me of Private Vow. I personally think that we can't really tell what kind of horse are in California at the moment. Del Mar has been a disaster and I think horses like Salute The Sarge are terrible. I want these juvies to get on a different surface, even if its Cushion track before I can identify some really good prospects but it may just be as simple as focusing on the Hopeful runners.

Mile
This is always my favorite race. I love the conditions, the speed and usually the drama. It is a race dominated by specialists so don't fall for horses like Nobiz Like Shobiz or After Market if they're entered. Concentrate on the horses who have excelled at a flat mile and are resonably fresh. Not necessarily coming off a layoff but we don't want horses who have been going non-stop since May. Injuries have blighted the build up to the race, the best natural miler in the nation, Chinese Dragon, was injured and retired and the under the radar Karen's Caper has had a problem and has not worked for two months. It's hard to come up with a worthy American. Remarkable News is very good but I don't trust him at a flat mile if there is any other speed. Marcavelly is interesting if he manages to win a race like the Kelso I wouldnt take him unless he steps up. Shakespeare is a real unknown for me at a mile. I wrote about Europeans Turtle Bowl, Tariq and Finsceal Beo in an earlier post. You can read my thoughts if you like. The long and short of it is this race still has me confused. We're two months from the day and nothing is really clear.

Sprint
The sprint division is weak this year. The horse with the fastest sprint figures, Midnight Lute, is not even a major candidate for this race. And of course the Lute hasn't even won anything other than a maiden at 6f anyway. Diabolical and Smokey Stover are the horses to beat but they really aren't that fast. I really do like Diabolical I think he is the most complete sprinter out there but he isn't unbeatable. Outsiders like Benny The Bull have a good chance. Attila's Storm is also interesting to me. His speed figures are low but I think you'll get a good price on him on BC day. He's cutting back from a distance that is past his best he should be quite fresh and he's the truest speed. The speed of the speed is often a major player in the BC Sprint.

Filly & Mare Turf
The question this race is, who is coming? This race might have Honey Ryder, Royal Highness, Peeping Fawn, Alexandrova and Irridescence. Or it may have none of them. None of these horses are commited to the race and all of them are potential winners of this race. I truly think that Peeping Fawn is the best Turf filly in the world right now and if she comes she should be odds on. But don't let that scare you off the quality alternatives that may be found. Rock Of Gibraltar, Lailani, Mark Of Esteem and Dancing Brave all went down in defeat when they appeared to have the race at thier mercy. I would stick with classy horses though. Horses like the other 4 mentioned above. I really don't think Citronnade, Precious Kitten and Lady Of Venice are good enough at 11f to beat the best there is. Perhaps if there is no pace like in Intercontinental's win but all things being equal the winner should be one of the top 5 I mentioned. Nashoba's Key is a wild card to me. I would not use her unless she beats some good horses in the Yellow Ribbon. Travelling out of state against top class Turf mares is no easy task.

Distaff
I don't mean to get too cheeky but I think Rags To Riches is by no means a certain starter. We have not really seen a horse good enough to beat her but if she doesn't run the race is wide open. An alternative I really like is Indian Vale. What I like most about her is her specific preference for 9f. No one has ever beaten her going that distance and she's put up some nice figures in those races. She is maybe on the slow side this year but most of her races have come at longer or shorter distances. Lady Joanne is also a horse that needs to be strongly considered. She is only getting better and with Nafzger preparing her for the big dance she might be in irresistable form. I'm not a huge fan of horses like Miss Shop, Ginger Punch, Unbridled Belle or Take D'Tour I think they're either too slow or won't be suited to the conditions. Balance may be an interesting sleeper. She has not lately but she's been facing the tough Nashoba's Key on all weather surfaces. Given the way Hystericalady came east and dominated Balance has be very respected.

Turf
This race has me confused again. I don't see too many Americans that can win it if a legitimate European shows up. There just aren't any top class 12f horses in North America right now. I like The Tin Man as an outsider but only if he's going to be the lone speed. This race is there to be plucked by the European who best adapts to the conditions.

Classic
The Classic is looking like a huge clash between Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday. I don't want to be a pessimist but the Classic always looks like a great race in September and often by the time they load in the gate we've lost one or two. Hopefully that does not happen here but it would be no shock, it would be par for the course actually. Of these 5 titans I have to give the biggest vote of confidence to Street Sense and Any Given Saturday. The 3yo's in this crop have excelled in sprints and turf races already I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to handle older horses. Street Sense is being prepared by a master and I actually prefer classic contenders to have their last prep at 9f instead of 10f. It's not a huge knock I just think it sets them up better. Any Given Saturday will also have a 9f prep but he'll have the disadvantage of never having been successful at 10f. The only older horse of note is Lawyer Ron and perhaps I'm unduly skeptical but I have all sorts of questions about him. Is he that good away from Saratoga? Can he stay this good for 2 more months? Is he going to be as effective at 10f? Remember this horse was once being pointed for the BC Dirt Mile so his connections obviously thought the Classic distance was not his cup of tea. I'd prefer to keep my hands off. Curlin might go into the race as the forgotten horse and certainly rates a chance, his Haskell might have been bad but I expect him to improve off the race. I don't really see any outsiders being capable in here unless the field is ravaged by injury. Grasshopper and Daaher are good longshot candidates but I think both will find the race a bit too tough at this juncture.