Saratoga Diary - The End Of A Long Road

What an incredible 36 days of racing. Who would have ever thought that Linda Rice could pull off the upset and win the training title over guys like Pletcher, Mott, Asmussen and McLaughlin. Turf sprints have become a bigger and bigger part of NYRA's daily diet and Rice is simply amazing in those races but she also got great performances from a limited number of runners. Pletcher had 59 more starters and 1 less winner. I think the real hole in the current Todd squad is that he doesn't seem to have any horses than can win stakes races. He only took 3 stakes races in the entire meet. That used to be an average Saturday afternoon for Todd.

The Asmussen/Jackson fillies are definitely the story of the meet for me. Rachel Alexandra is the best Female racehorse of the modern era. Better than Ruffian, better than Personal Ensign and even better than Twilight Tear. This is greatness being played out right before our eyes. It's sad to think that it might be her last race of the year but what a race it was. Macho Again is no slouch on his best day but the most impressive part of her performance was not that she beat Macho Again specifically it was that she handled the tag team pressure. These old guys weren't about to give her an easy ride and she was pushed very hard in the early stages. At about the 1/8th pole I mentioned to my wife that I think they got her but Rachel just would not give up. That performance definitely put her over the top. She's the best ever.

Hot Dixie Chick would normally be a huge story for the Spa meet. A pair of scintillating open length wins in Graded Stakes. Three of the top four Beyers earned by 2yo's this year and she was even impressive while overcoming the supposed adversity of the inside post position. Saratoga is often said to be about the juveniles and Hot Dixie Chick was the finest juvenile in action this summer at the Spa.

The male 2yo's by comparison were a bit disappointing. I have a hard time coming up with the answer to the question "Who was the best male 2yo at the Spa?" Maybe it was Dublin, maybe it was Aspire, D'Funnybone looked pretty good as did Discreetly Mine but no one really stamped themselves as the must watch horse of the fall. I have no doubt that many of these juveniles will have a major impact in future stakes races but none of them seem to be of extraordinary quality.

From a handicapping perspective the meet was a disaster. Having 80 winners on top does represent an improvement over 2008 and 2007 but I still lost about 17%. It took me a long time to gain any traction in the meet. The one bright point for me was the development of the Kennedy Speed Rating. It's far from infallible but the ratings did help me get back on track and nail a few winners.

My spot plays showed a -44.11% return. My apologies if anyone was actually looking at this space for some decent advice. Despite the lure of big profits from exacta's and trifecta's I actually would have lost much less if I had simply bet each of my picks to win. That's usually the way of it with my handicapping and wagering. This meet just goes to show that I'm not that great at either. Still it's an immensely enjoyable exercise and challenge always is to get better.

Saratoga Diary - Sept 5th

Friday was not exactly the type of day I was looking for to get me back in the swing. In truth it was one of my worst days of the entire meet. Nine races and the winner was only a part of my top three selections three times. I completely blanked on all my exacta's and trifecta's as well.

Linda Rice is proving that she isn't just throwing horses to the wind and hoping something sticks. She took two more wins yesterday to Pletcher's one. By my count that locks them up with 18 a piece. Alan Garcia also had 4 winners which puts him back in the hunt against Dominguez for the riding title. These battles for the human titles have made the meet all the more interesting even without the fantastic racing we've been treated to.



Spot Plays for September 5th

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$12
$1 trifecta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$24

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sean Avery/Mesa Sunrise/Hamazing Destiny =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Peace Chant/Ready's Echo/Kodiak Kowboy =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - It's a Bird/Rachel Alexandra/Bullsbay =$6

Wagered - $54
Meet Balance = -$683.50 (-54.94%)

This whole final week has been very tough and today may be the hardest one yet. It seems like there aren't any clear picks aside from Rachel Alexandra and I'm actually choosing to go against her to see if I can get a price.

Race #4 looks like my play of the day spot. I really really like Karakorum Fugitive and I'm hoping that I have the right horses in the mix along with her. I'm also hoping that Mike Hushion continues his hot streak with Sean Avery. Hushion has quietly been one of the best trainers at the Spa this summer and his horses seem to be holding form very well. Sean Avery was impressive a few weeks ago so I'm hoping he continues that today. His race is a wide open affair though so it'll be tough.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the racing today. It could be the day where we witness the confirmation of the best modern female America has ever seen.

Saratoga Diary - Sept 4th

I'm finally back home and back in the groove. Although I love vacations and the chance to get to the track in person I do find comfort in being at my home base. This is my first post in almost two weeks. It's almost the longest I've ever gone without posting.

While in Toronto I was able to get out to Woodbine to catch Jungle Wave's excellent performance in the Play the King while also watching Travers Day via simulcast. I certainly hope that Jungle Wave's connections have the courage to venture south of the border. He's really in a zone right now and will likely lead the home team along with Rahy's Attorney in the Woodbine Mile.

Getting back to Saratoga, for those of you who may have forgotten I am getting sliced and diced this meet. My spot plays have yielded a -52.66% loss and I've had just 71 winners on top for a -16.41% loss in the public handicapping exercise. The silver lining is that the last two weeks of the meet have actually been positive for me. I'd need the most monstrous final week ever to show a profit for the meet but at least I'm gaining a bit of a foothold.

Saratoga has also been a time when I've been able to test and perfect my new Kennedy Speed Rating. It's not a guarantee of victory but in general the winners wind up being rated fast enough. Just as a little reminder the KSR is simply an average of each horses Beyer's, BRIS Speed and DRF Track Ratings. A rating of 100 or more means that a horse is faster on average at today's conditions than the field average which in my mind makes them a real contender to win.

Here are the KSR ratings for today. Many of the races are wide open with 5 or more contenders. It'll be a tough card but if you're right you should be well rewarded.



Spot Plays for Sept 4th

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Mississippi Hippie/Dogwood Entry/Paddy O'Prado =$6

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Positive Pitch/By M K/Australis Princess =$6

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Biggerbadderbetter/Valtrus/Tiger Woodman =$6

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Weaver Entry/Poppy Day/Adriatic Magic =$6

Race #7
$1 exacta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$12
$1 trifecta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$24

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$623.50 (-52.66%)

I do see some chances to get some prices in several events today. It may be a tough day to get winners on top but some nice exacta's might be on the cards.

My longshot play of the day is Biggerbadderbetter. He is actually rated too slow by the KSR but I still like him to pull off an upset at a big price. The mile should suit him very well. I actually thought that he was a bit unlucky against Tahoe Warrior last time. His second race off the layoff ought to be better.

I'm hoping for a big day for Ken McPeek as I'm using My Baby Baby as a key in the feature as well. Belle Allure will be really tough and I'm not sure that I like the negative form reference from Cocoa Beach but My Baby Baby should win this race if she runs back to that form.

Good luck to everyone today!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 22-23

Weekends are habitually rushed for me and this one is even worse with vacation preparations. I won't be posting the KSR's over the weekend because in order to have them accurate you have to wait until the scratches are released and I'm writing this an hour before scratches are due. But as always the preliminary ratings are heavily influencing my plays.

Spot Plays for Aug 22

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Happy Bull/Mannington/Saratoga Russell =$6
$1 trifecta box - Happy Bull/Mannington/Saratoga Russell =$12

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Cane Candy/Squid Ink/Cat Day =$6

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Winslow Homer/On Vacation/Remittance =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Ryvit/Super Saver/Gathering Cloud =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Milwaukee Appeal/Careless Jewel/Wynning Ride =$6
$10 W - Milwaukee Appeal =$10

Wagered - $52

Spot Plays for Aug 23

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Pearl of Valor/Who Is Lady/Lorraine In Spain/Musical Splendor =$12
$1 trifecta box - Pearl of Valor/Who Is Lady/Lorraine In Spain/Musical Splendor =$24

Wagered - $36

Saratoga Diary - Aug 21

While I failed to have many winners on top yesterday I did manage to hit all three exacta's that I played. My horses also ran 1-2-4 in the only trifecta I played on the day. Things worked out pretty well. Many of the picks were just combination's of the obvious but it's still nice to enjoy some success. Success has been a rare thing in these parts during Saratoga.

George Weaver went on an unbelievable run of three straight winners. He's one to watch in the second half. For some reason I basically never catch any of his winners. I guess his style and mine don't line up at all.

If anyone was checking out the Kennedy Speed Ratings yesterday they could have put you onto 2 winners in 3 races. Also two exacta's and a winning trifecta in those same races. It was mostly chalk but that's just the kind of day it was. Some horses ran surprising races but all in all none of the winners were totally off the wall horses.



Spot Plays for Aug 21

Race #1
$10 W - Sapphire Sky =$10

Race #2
$1 exacta box - The Mayor/Jazz Hands/Orrsville =$6

Race #3
$10 W - China =$10

Race #6
$2 exacta box - Genuine Charm/Awesome Maria/Sing My Song =$12

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Ice Road/Blackberry Road/Luv Gov =$6

Wagered - $44
Meet Balance = -$538.70 (-52.40%)

I went back to some win bets despite my recent success with exacta's. I think Sapphire Sky was great value when Doremifasollatido was still in the race, now that she's out I think she's a possible standout.

I also put some money down on the nose of China. I really think this horse has something special and I would have bet him in the Saratoga Special yesterday. His connections likely saved me some money by scratching because the Dutrow horse ran out of this world. Maybe Pletcher knew something. At any rate he looks like the winner here.

Not much to say about the two $1 exacta boxes I'm playing but the 6th looks like a great opportunity. McLaughlin is an automatic with second timers and his Genuine Charm fits the profile perfectly. Dynazaper has the look of a good one and Awesome Maria is the deserving chalk. I like my chances in that one because of the strong McLaughlin angle.

EDIT: Dynazaper is out so I'm replacing her with Sing My Song

Saratoga Diary - Aug 20

I thought that the winner of the feature yesterday was aptly named. Worstcasescenario really was just that. The Adirondack was a complete disaster for both my wagers and the figures upon which I based my plays.

In fact it was quite an embarrassing debut day for the Kennedy Speed Ratings. 9 races calculated and only 5 winners among those deemed "fast enough". It did have 3 winners on top but just failed to break even if you had wagered every horse with a 100+ rating. The value was definitely with the slower horses yesterday. This is the first day of the meet where so many ran above themselves. Still I'll post today's figures in hope that today will be a bit more to form. Only 3 races on this card could be calculated.



Spot Plays for Aug 20th

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Bobbi O./Myrtle Gray/Rogue's Jewel =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$12
$1 trifecta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$24

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Flying Sappho/Dear Contender/Beso Del Sur =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$552.30 (-56.36%)

Ken McPeek has been well off the pace this meet but it is worth noting that he had a hugely impressive winner yesterday in a turf race for maidens. House of Grace romped at 23/1 and Bobbi O. has been a workmate of House of Grace. This horse could be ready to pop as well although likely not at such a generous price.

In the two last turf races of the day I think there is an opportunity to get some prices in the mix. I respect the favorites but I don't think they have to win. Horses like Moon Drop and Justify should be right there in the 8th. In the 10th I think the favorites are very vulnerable. I included Beso Del Sur in the exacta because of the fear of Linda Rice but otherwise I think the tote board could light up in the last.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 19

Week 3 was not all that kind to me. I had 12 winners on top and still lost money with my spot plays but having said that it was actually my best period of the meet. So essentially I still suck but just not as much. One of the main reasons for my minor improvement has been my intentional development and use of something I call the KSR (Kennedy Speed Rating) I've played around with the concept for for more than a year off and on but after getting killed in claiming race after claiming race where I simply had no idea what to do I decided to knuckle down and refine the ratings to see if they could help a bit.

Starting Monday Aug 3rd I made calculations for every race possible. Not every race can have KSR's applied because the rating is essentially based on the premise of finding the average speed of each entrant at a similar condition that they're facing today. If a horse has never run on the surface or has never run with 2 furlongs of today's distance it's basically impossible to say how they'll do. If a horse achieves a rating of 100.00 or more it is the KSR's suggestion that they are fast enough to win this particular race.

In 13 race days at Saratoga 69 races had the KSR applied to them and 47 times the winner had a rating of 100.00 or more. 11 times the winner was unrated and another 11 times the winner had a rating of 99.99 or less. A flat bet on every horse in those 69 races that had a rating of 100.00 or more would have made you $85.60. It's not the most unbelievable profit margin ever but it does show a profitable correlation.

The KSR is still pretty new so it might need some revision but I've decided to link today's figures here on the blog and we can follow the results as they happen. Hopefully these ratings can help put you and I onto a few winners today.



Spot Plays for Aug 19th

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Miss Fleetfoot/Dressmaker/Sneaky Girl =$6

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$12
$1 trifecta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$24

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Starfish Bay/Thoroughly Holy/Gemswick Park =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Akonite/First to Come Home/Galluscio Entry =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$12
$1 trifecta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$24

Wagered - $90
Meet Balance = -$487.00 (-54.72%)

You may notice that most of the horses I'm using today are well rated by the KSR. There were a lot of playable races today based on those figures. In fact there were likely more races today than any other that I've calculated so I'm going a bit heavy in relation to my stated average of $50 per day.

In Race #5 I'm taking a bit of a risk in that I'm leaving out a lot of really good horses but I just like the race because you have a good looking Pletcher, a good looking Rice and Gemswick Park, a horse that I've always thought very well of. So hot trainers combined with a classy sprinter, it seems like a good deal to me.

The other plays are mostly based off the figures. I'm looking for overall speed to dominate the races and hopefully cash me some tickets.

I think Pletcher will really come to hand in the second half of this meet and he's starting to put in some serious horses. Look for him to win 5 or more races this week.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 17

Friday and Saturday we're pretty terrible days at the windows for me. I had just 2 winners on top total and for most of the races I didn't even have the winner among my top 3. The one that really got away was the bomb Eltish Star. She came out second overall in the field with my figures and I debated long and hard about her. I finally decided to go with the safer chalk Classic Moon. Classic Moon ran third and Eltish Star was completely forgotten at the windows.

Sunday was a much better day. I cast my lot with 4 Pletcher horses and he didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped going 4-1-1-1 with those. The one that really hurt was Etincelle who got ignored and went off at 9/1. Etincelle came with a furious rally in the lane to miss by two heads. Another stride or two and it would have been an excellent score.

It was a shame not to catch hold of the Citifest exacta and trifecta but two of my 4 plays for the box scratched out and I wasn't around to compensate for the changes. Hopefully Monday is more like Sunday than Saturday.

Spot Plays for Aug 17th

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Exhi/Successful Score/Indian Council =$6

Race #3
$25 Win - Gayego = $25

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Banker's Buy/Driven by Seattle/Top Lass/Sister's Speed =$12
$1 trifecta box - Banker's Buy/Driven by Seattle/Top Lass/Sister's Speed =$24

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sixthirteen/I've Got Speed/Due Date =$6

Wagered - $73
Meet Balance = -$526.00 (-64.38%)

I'm overspending a bit today because I was so far below budget yesterday courtesy of the scratches. I'm not thrilled with many of the fields today. I know I'm playing 4 different races but they're the only ones I'd really consider today. Most days you're trying to narrow it down to only the plays where you think you have the best chance. Today I'm desperately looking for any good chance I can find.

The feature is a deep race and perhaps it's an error in judgement to leave off both Linda Rice horses but neither of them struck me as particularly strong. Awakino Cat got such a perfect setup last time it's hard to see a repeat of that here.

I think Gayego is a standout in race 3. I know it's not very interesting to play a 3-5 shot but when you're losing money at a near 65% clip solid winners begin to look like real value.

Best of luck to everyone today, it's a very tough card.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 15-16

I'm going to have to go ahead and combine Saturday and Sunday's diary. The weekend's really pile up these days. It ought to be a great weekend of racing. I sure hope the weather holds through Sunday.

Spot Plays For Aug 15th

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Bulldogger/Brother Bird/Chief Counsel =$6

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Keep Thinking/Strong Commitment/Sean Avery =$6

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Musketier/Grand Couturier/Lauro/Brass Hat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Musketier/Grand Couturier/Lauro/Brass Hat =$24

Wagered - $48

Spot Plays for Aug 16th

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Epicurus/Steve's Kitten/Mott Entry =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Etincelle/Deputy's Citizen/Siren Serennade =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Citifest/Redefined/Elusive Fox/Thunder Minister =$12
$1 trifecta box - Citifest/Redefined/Elusive Fox/Thunder Minister =$24

Wagered - $48

I'm kind of betting on a big weekend for Pletcher, especially on Sunday. I kind of feel like he's really bringing some live horses over the next two days and I want to get a piece of that.

I'd love to say that I fully support Grand Couturier for a third Sword Dancer but I actually think that Musketier will be a very tough horse to beat. Attfield has really brought him along well and I think he's ready to establish himself as top tier.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 14

Yesterday was my first profitable day of the meet, it only took 12 days...I'm hoping that my next profitable day is not another 12 days from now.

Three winners on top and a trifecta score as well as an exacta. It was just a decent day where things worked out.

Congrats to Linda Rice who has continued her rich vein of form and is now in the lead of the trainers race. Pletcher has a far bigger stable and will likely win the title again just because of volume but Rice is the big story and she is doing the best job with her string right now.

Spot Plays for Friday Aug 14th

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Pendulum/Crystal Moment/Eto'o =$6

Race #8
$10 W - Straight Story =$10
$1 exacta box - Straight Story/Lime Rickey/No Inflation/Courageous Cat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Straight Story/Lime Rickey/No Inflation/Courageous Cat =$24

Wagered - $52
Meet Balance = -$412 (-58.61%)

I didn't have a lot of strong opinions today aside from Straight Story in the 8th. I love this horses chances and I've been waiting eagerly for him to run back. I think he's far and away the best horse and I've committed almost all of my budget today to using him in some way.

I'm interested in the juvenile race as well. I mostly like to play key trainers in juvenile races but this time I'm leaving off a major contender from Pletcher. Drover is a half to Ashado and Sunriver and he's by Storm Cat so he's bred to be a champion but after a series of dirt works they tried him on the grass and he didn't look great in that either. For the most part when you have a royal juvenile like this you start them on the main track unless they absolutely cannot run. I'm hoping Drover takes some money and the exacta with the other 3 logical horses is a bit inflated.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 13

I find that when my handicapping has gone south I'm automatically drawn towards discussing things like the weather. So without further ado I'm pleased to report that it's a nice day at Saratoga once again. It's been a pretty unbelievable run of good weather. The Turf races have not been affected since perhaps the third day of the meet.

I'm sure there are plenty of trainers looking to score wins at the Spa in easy off the turf races but that angle is just about closed for now. We're seeing a ton of turf racing packed into every card and the course looks like it's in excellent condition.

Alan Garcia continues to showcase his talent and show people that he can do more than simply ride very live horses for Kiaran McLaughlin. He's simply riding well and Ramon is having a very tough time staying in touch with him despite getting many more mounts. Leparoux and Velasquez are beginning to emerge from the pack as well and these four look like the only ones in serious contention for the title.

Could Linda Rice actually be the champion trainer at the Spa? The easy answer is no but she is well on her way to having her best meet ever. Last year McLaughlin took the title with 17 winners. Rice has 7 winners from 11 race days. With another 25 days to go she could well find herself in the 12-15 range. It won't be enough to deal with a massive stable like Todd Pletcher's but she is turning some heads. Pletcher got off to his usual slow start but has steadily climbed his way all the way to the top without even getting hot. I think he'll walk away with this title easily despite the best efforts of overachievers like Rice.

Spot Plays for Thursday Aug 13th

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Dattt Echo/Capital Adequacy/Happy Week =$12

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Quick to Charm/Willsboro Point/Bullara/Aly's Wheat =$12
$1 trifecta box - Quick to Charm/Willsboro Point/Bullara/Aly's Wheat =$24

Race #7
$1 exacta box - Pletcher Entry/Ready to Party/Smart Seattle =$6

Wagered - $54

I'm going a bit heavier with Race 2's exacta but I feel pretty good about that race. I know I've been cold with the juveniles but I've been cold with everything. I think Dattt Echo is a fabulous win bet for this race and I really like Pletcher and Violette with first timers. This could yield a nice return too since McLaughlin has an expensive Darley horse debuting. I suppose it could win but I like that barn more with second timers.

Race 6 feels like one of those claiming events where anything can happen. I'm just hoping that the fastest horses prevail.

Race 7 is much like Race 2 in that my play is mainly focused on the trainers rather than the horses but I don't have as strong a feeling about it.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 12

So the third week begins and I'm personally feeling a bit bullish about the week. We don't have an overwhelming number of stakes races on offer like we did in the first two weeks but we still have contentious fields that will prove to be very tricky to decipher.

I've got quite a few price horses on top today but I'm feeling quietly confident that one or two will come in. I think today may feature more than a few false favorites which creates chances for everyone.

We have a unique 2 mile race on the main track in the 4th today. The logical horse Lord Kipling just ran a marathon last week and was terrible. I'm hoping that a crazy horse, New Fandan can shock them all.

I had many horses that I wanted to play in the win spot for today but I had to refrain because realistically playing the win pool has not been a great thing for me. So here are a few of my plays for today.

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Quiet Alice/Beboblues Art/Kevazinga/Kaleigh Rose =$12
$1 trifecta box - Quiet Alice/Beboblues Art/Kevazinga/Kaleigh Rose =$24

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Minnie Punt/Scientist/Uncle T Seven =$6
$1 trifecta box - Minnie Punt/Scientist/Uncle T Seven =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$423.35 (-70.44%)

Despite my poor results thus far I'm going to keep on going after some bigger scores with the exacta's and trifecta's. I'm losing quite a bit so far this meet but one nice trifecta and I'm close to getting back in the game. The main issue is that I just need to start making good choices on which races to play.

I'm looking at a pair of grass races for today because I think they're contentious races and there could be some prices. I actually decided not to take any of those prices in race 9 because the top horses seem to stand above the rest but since the race looks confusing a lot of combinations may be underbet.

The weather looks great and no one should be disadvantaged by the course. Best of luck to everyone playing the Spa today!

Speeding Things Up

Saratoga continues to be a very tough place to play. I managed just 8 winners in week two after having 13 in week one but I had a heartbreaking 17 second place finishes. If even half of those could have been winners it would have been a much better week for me. Once again my second choices performed much better as they accounted for 16 wins. Had I focused on my second place picks as my primary wagers I'd be up to 31 winners at the meet. But it's not so easy to simply take your second place horses the reason you picked them second is because you think they're not as likely as your primary pick.

My use of the average composite speed rating which I'll now call the Kennedy Speed Rating (KSR) has helped me to get a bit of a clue in the tough claiming events. It has also helped put me on track to some nice wagers. I did not hit any of the 7 trifecta's that I played this past week but I missed several of them by just one placing. I'm definitely going to continue along the same vein this coming week. Just to give you a brief idea of what the KSR is it's simply a combination and average of each horses applicable speed figures. Beyer's, BRISnet Speed Figures and DRF Speed Ratings are used and compared against the field averages to come up with one number. That number is supposed to represent a certain horses speed relative to the rest of the field. If the number is 100.00 or greater I assume the horse is fast enough to win the race. Over this past week I've rated 39 races at Saratoga and 160 horses were apparently "fast enough". A win wager on those 160 horses would have made a $43.90 profit (+13.72%) .

With this angle in my corner I'm basically trying to pick from a basket of about 4 horses per race. I'm hoping that gives me a leg up on some winners. In those 39 races as well the 100+ horses have swept the trifecta 11 times and the exacta 18 times so that's kind of what I've been aiming at with my spot plays. The trick is that with a $50 per day average it's tough to get money down on all the trifecta possibilities on the card. I've been mostly trying to pick out the best ones but it hasn't quite landed for me yet.

Week 2 saw a bunch of nice performances by some of the biggest stars in the game. Fabulous Strike and Elusive Heat looked wonderful as did Bribon in his first turf race for many years. He had not been all that great on Turf during his limited exposure in the past but he sure liked it on the weekend. He earned a nice 103 Beyer for the score and it puts him right in the mix with the best milers out there.

Godolphin has been having a pretty fair meet after winning a G-1 with Seventh Street in the first week they took another G-1 with Flashing in the Test. Godolphin loves to win at Saratoga, keep a special eye out for the horses they have coming back from long layoffs. Girolamo was very impressive on Sunday and Pyro nearly got it done in the meets first stakes race.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 10

I promise to return with a more thorough review tomorrow but for now some quick picks will have to suffice.

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Speed Dating/Exonerated/One In a Romp/Soave =$12
$1 trifecta box - Speed Dating/Exonerated/One In a Romp/Soave =$24

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Zori's Eye/Pletcher Entry/Marabelle =$12

Wagered - $48

Good luck everyone!

Saratoga Diary - Aug 9

The weekend has been pretty hectic I'll just post my plays and be done with it for Sunday. Let's go chalk!

Race #5
$25 W - Tam Lin

Race #10
$25 W - Fabulous Strike

Wagered - $50

Saratoga Diary - Aug 8

For the sake of simplicity I'll simply post my plays for Saturday now and hope that there aren't too many scratches. We almost hit some big scores on Friday but it just wasn't to be. I'm hoping for a nice formful day in the sun at Saratoga.

Race #2
$1 exacta box - Spell/Laguna Moon/Kelly Entry =$6
$1 trifecta box - Spell/Laguna Moon/Kelly Entry =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Bluegrass Princess/Maram/Complicity/Striking Dancer =$12
$1 trifecta box - Bluegrass Princess/Maram/Complicity/Striking Dancer =$24

Race #10
$10 W - Smooth Air =$10

Wagered - $58
Meet Balance = -$363.25 (-80.19%)

Saratoga Diary - Aug 7

I don't have much to say about today's card. I do like my chances of getting out on this card, which would be a first for me at this meet. I'm playing most of these races based on my home cooked speed ratings which are essentially a composite average of the most popular figures like Beyers, BRISnet Speed and the DRF Speed Rating. I was looking forward to playing Uvada in the 5th but she has scratched out and I don't see much else out there.

Good luck to everyone today!

Race #1
$1 exacta box - Bella Attrice/Crazy Catlady/Bobs Pinup Girl/Mindbender =$12

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Loxy Lady/Maria's Moon/Who Is Lady =$6
$1 trifecta box - Loxy Lady/Maria's Moon/Who Is Lady =$6

Race #8
$2 exacta box - Mission Approved/Southwest/Lord Kipling =$12

Race #9
$1 exacta box - Gulf Cat/Jet Set Vinny/Mott Entry =$6
$1 trifecta box - Gulf Cat/Jet Set Vinny/Mott Entry =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$352.70 (-87.09%)

There's No Place Like.....

A commenter has brought a salient point to light and it's that there is no substitute for being at the track and seeing the horses live. That's not something I've been able to do during the Saratoga meeting so all my picks have been sight unseen. But I do recall that my biggest day ever at the track included a score in the 2003 Canadian Handicap. There was a solid field lined up and my initial analysis of the race had me settling on Diadella but when I got to the paddock everything changed. A filly named Inish Glora was jumping out of her skin. To this day I have still never seen a horse look so impressive in the pre-race buildup. She looked colossal and I simply had to back her. She ran an excellent race that day to score at 10/1 with me fully behind her. There is simply no substitute for seeing them in the flesh.

In the absence of such a privilege though we soldier on. It was another rough day for me all around but the problem does not lie with my overall handicapping. The problem is simply which horse I choose to make my primary pick. Once again this week my second choices are carrying the banner. My primary picks are 19-0-7-1 while my second choices are 19-6-4-4. It's gets pretty frustrating to see horses win when you liked them but have no stake in them.

I played three trifecta's yesterday and none of them cashed but in race 3 I had the 2-3-4 finishers and in race 9 I had the 1-3-4 finishers. Past the Point and Paul's Hope scuppered my dreams of some nice returns. Things have to fall into place some time.

Saratoga Diary - Aug 6

I love the days when you don't need to fret over whether or not the weather is going to wipe out the card. The fields are run more or less in the form that you handicapped. I don't about other people but I tend to have looked over all the races and compiled short lists for each race at least a day before. A pile of scratches and changes in track condition wipe out all that preliminary work.

Yesterday was not the best of days for me. I'm finding it really hard to come up with winners but I'm optimistic that things will change a bit today. I've decided to start relying more on my own speed ratings. Had I followed them a bit more up to this point I'd be doing much better.

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Shoptate/Mister Triester/Cave's Valley/Spin Master =$12
$1 trifecta box - Shoptate/Mister Triester/Cave's Valley/Spin Master =$24

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Pluto/Budget/Four Star Bo =$6
$1 trifecta box - Pluto/Budget/Four Star Bo =$6

Race #9
$1 exacta box - City Sneakers/Strong Impact/Lyke a Hurricane =$6
$1 trifecta box - City Sneakers/Strong Impact/Lyke a Hurricane =$6

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$292.70 (-84.84%)

I'm dabbling a bit with some trifecta's today because I'm hoping that speed will prove to be superior today. I'm going against Past the Point in Race 3 despite all the good form he's got. I think if we can get him out of the frame the payouts could be very nice indeed. Past the Point is definitely the best horse in the race but so was Riley Tucker on opening day. Past the Point is less a sprinter than router so I'm against the short price.

As a fan I'm really looking forward to seeing Driven by Success against Ferocious Fires. Both high quality horses with near flawless records at Saratoga. They're both G-1 placed horses and I sure hope they both show up and run their best.

Beached

I think I very much played the fish out of water today. No winners on top and just two winners as my second choices.

Todd Pletcher did have an impact today but he had one winner whereas I was backing him to get two or three. At any rate Paracaidas made a nice return to the races in the third. He was widely rumored to be a good thing last year but came up just short in his Saratoga debut. This was the first time he was seen back in action and he won in very determined fashion. I was able to catch the exacta in the third and although it only paid $24 that makes it my highest return of the meet.

Cocoa Beach looked like the best horse on paper in the De la Rose but people were more than willing to opposed her. I myself went for McPeek's Teamgeist over the Godolphin horse but Cocoa Beach showed a bit of her old class to carry the day. Make no mistake she was not the Cocoa Beach of old in this effort but she was good enough to grind out a win.