Early Breeders Cup Thoughts

Juvenile
Circular Quay has been the only horse I liked for this spot ever since I started doing looking for potential candidates in July. He doesnt need to win the Keeneland prep. Polytrack may not be his cup of tea but I do want to see him reproduce his kick around 2 turns. Principle Secret would be the horse I fear most at this stage, I think he's a far better prospect than Horse Greeley. I think Horse Greeley will be found out sooner rather than later. Scat Daddy interests me as a horse who could hit the board. He has good tactical speed and seems to have no small amount of courage

Juvenile Fillies
Cash Included gave a very good effort in the Oak Leaf. She handled Point Ashley with ease as she seems the quicker of the pair. I would fancy her again in a rematch. Dreaming of Anna is a possible freak. I dont like her propsed preparation which will see her go to the BC without contesting a dirt stakes race but she may be good enough to overcome the obstacles. Point Ashley isnt very good from a championship perspective. She has always looked a horse who needed to be hard ridden in order to respond but Cash Included also exposed her as a filly with just average acceleration. She is solid enough to be listed as a contender though. The 2yo filly division at this stage is wide open. It really wouldnt shock me to see a horse who is virtually unknown run themselves into prominence.

Distaff
Spun Sugar is classy, very tough and has good tactical speed. She's been my darling in this division for many months. I dont think any result in the Spinster would be enough to dissaude me of her chances. But then anything can happen. I expect Fleet Indian to get a nice class test in the Beldame, I also expect her to come through it very well and go to Louisville as the deserving favorite for the race. One thing that is notable with the distaff division is that many of them are slow. That is why Fleet Indian despite her lack of a class test stands out. On paper she is much faster than everyone, even Spun Sugar who I feel is the best mix of speed and class doesnt have great numbers. Horses like Oonagh MacCool, Happy Ticket, Healthy Addiction and Round Pond just arent good enough. Thier form is solid but not spectacular and thus they are always susceptible to the spectacular. Pine Island interests me as well but I think it will be more profitable to oppose her

Mile
I dont know quite what to expect from Silent Name next. He needs to run well in the Oak Tree Mile. He doesnt need to beat Aragorn but he does need to show some of that flash he had in the Arcadia. I love the way he's being brought up to the BC, now its up to him. I have long held him to be one of the best pure milers in the nation. the BC Mile is a funny race that way. It strongly favours who have proven to be most proficient at 8f precisely. This I feel plays against the chances of Gorella and Aragorn. I feel that both horses are best at 9f. Free Thinking will be a huge longshot on BC day if he runs, however he has to have a superb chance. He's an out and out miler and his form is decptively good. I do worry about his tendency to run too eagerly then get passed but with a more patient ride he could easily shock them all. Miesque's Approval might be the most underrated horse in the nation. His only loss this year came to English Channel. Now he does have the unfortunate accomplishment of winning past a mile in the current year plus he's next due in the Shadwell Mile. Those havent been great things for Mile runners. But he loves the course and is in the form of his life . And that form is more than good enough. Manduro is a tough non winning type in Europe who may actually be better going longer. However there are things to like. He is a vicious closer and he'll act on the ground. His class level is right up there with the best in the game and he has the exact same connections as Shirocco. He's the European I'd like at this stage. I dont like George Washington at all. I think him to be an inconsistent horse who will quite overbet. Also horses who were aimed at the QE II often do not reproduce thier best on BC day.

Sprint
I never thought of Henny Hughes as pure 6f speed, but then neither were Gulch and Precisionist. The two things Henny has in gobs are class and talent. That'll take you a long way. He is a very scary horse. He doesnt need to beat Silver Train in the Vosburgh. He just needs to show that he can mix it with older horses. War Front should be a good barometer for him. I'm sort of hoping that Bordonaro gets overlooked with Henny mania sweeping the Sprint. He's got the highest Beyers in the division and he is the class of the field. He should win at Oak Tree though so there likely wont be too much of a price. Too Much Bling is being forgotten a bit because of his lack of races but Baffert can get a sprinter ready off the shelf and long layoff sprinters actually have a good record in this race. He was fast enough when he went to the shelf he should be fast enough still.

FM Turf
Wait A While is turning into my single of the day. Untouchable on the grass thus far. Her early speed means that perfect trips are likely going to a regular occurace for her. Her lightning acceleration gives her a huge advantage over Ouija Board, Alexandrova and Gorella. Ouija Board has to be mentioned because of her class, you cant argue with class. Although Wait A While looks great I would be remiss to dismiss a mare this good.

Turf
The Turf has been baffling me for quite a while. There is much talk of how the Europeans will dominate this race just as they did last year. However I'm unconvinced. I'm usually the first to support the Europeans but they just dont look that tough this year. Mostly because they havent committed to send anyone. Shirocco seems to have this as his target now and he has to be respected if he shows up. Although I think the Arc was a good reminder of what can happen to him on firmish ground. Then agian if its soft he'll likely win with ease. Still I find myself groping around for an alternative and the one I settled on was The Tin Man. He is racing at the highest level of his life and no one is going to go with him at Churchill because everyone is going to be concerned with the Europeans. He has always had class even when things didnt go his way, he's a tough horse to pass. If Showing Up by-passes the Turf his task will be even easier. Cacique is another classy one who I dont think will win but he could easily hit the frame.

Classic
The Jockey Club Gold Cup will hopefully go by without any incident. I dont want anything to get in the way of Bernardini's coronation in the BC's climactic race. He's a standout and with Invasor skipping his prep I have to downgrade his chances. I dont like layoffs that long going to the Classic. Lava Man will pose little threat to him and really I think we could have a runaway for the Darley 3yo.