Suburban Handicap
This races quality has fallen off quite a bit over the years but I'm actually not so disappointed with a playable race as opposed to the all but walkovers horses like Skip Away and Mineshaft got. There are only two horses in this race with the potential to really be somebody, It's a Bird and Asiatic Boy. It's a Bird has already had a decent season and I see this race as a turning point. Either he wins and continues on his way to becoming one of the best older horses in the country or he loses and he's just like everyone else in this weak crop. I don't think I'd really consider playing against him were it not for the fact that this is a one turn race. I suspect that he's got a real preference for two turn races or maybe it's just the distance of two turn races that he likes. However slim it's a bit of something for contrarions to hold onto. Asiatic Boy is good enough to win and a must use in exotics but I don't trust him. Too often in his career he has declined to show up. The rest of this horses in the race should be equals at 10/1. They have outsiders chances, all of them. None are particularly great and none are that bad. If It's a Bird is going to falter I'd rather be riding on a price horse rather than someone like Dry Martini at 6/1. Stud Muffin fits my criteria for a price horse very well. He loves the track when it's dry and he has a very consistent record. He has even been borderline brilliant on occasion against state-breds. It's a step up in class but I don't think his best race is too much worse than anyone else's. His trainer is even sneaky good at some of these class step ups. A dry track makes him very live and lately he's been falling victim to loose speed but I don't think that's as much of a worry here.
Stud Muffin
Firecracker Handicap
Between Thorn Song, Mr. Sidney, Seaspeak and Tizdejavu there is a good deal of talent for a G-2 race. Don't be too shocked if a few of these horses end up looking like good bets in the BC Mile. Thorn Song is tough and lovable but in my opinion he's unplayable. Inca King and Tizdejavu both have good speed and have proven to be quite proficient on Churchill's sod. I think it's a good bet to assume that one of them will go with Thorn Song and that will spoil the chances of the 9/5 favorite. I'm going to play against the chalk with Seaspeak. I know his figures have been light but I think he might be classier than he looks. Cowboy Cal is no slouch on the grass and Seaspeak managed to finish ahead of him at Keeneland although he was DQ'ed in that effort I think the talent is there. Visually he was very impressive at Lone Star and I think he can use his quick burst of pace to good effect if he gets the stalking trip I suspect he will.
Seaspeak
Tom Fool Handicap
I think this is the tasty match up of the weekend. Fabulous Strike against Munnings with Driven By Success as a flavor adding side dish. Three top class horses at the top of their game and Fabulous Strike has to give 11lbs to Munnings and 8lbs to Driven By Success. I almost never talk about the burdens of imposts but it may be a factor here given the great disparity between Fabulous Strike and his competition. I think the distance of this race is key. No one beats Fabulous Strike at 6f if he's on his game. He can take the impost, he can take early pressure and he can get to the line quicker than anyone else. 7f is a different story, he has never won a race beyond 6f and while he has run very good races at 7f I think he's a shade below his best. Driven By Success does his best work on the pace and I expect him to put Fabulous Strike under all kinds of pressure. Meanwhile Munnings should be sitting in behind them praying that they go as fast as possible. I see Fabulous Strike turning back Driven By Success but Munnings will have had the run of the race and should get to the favorite late. Munnings always hinted at superb ability. I think we get a taste of that here. He could not have been more impressive in the Woody Stephens. That race still blows me away. I think if he runs back to that form he can beat Fabulous Strike at 7f.
Munnings
Triple Bend Handicap
It's a full weekend of juicy races and perhaps none are more juicy than the Triple Bend. You don't usually get 14 entrants in a Californian stakes race but I think the G-1 status is a major draw. Zensational is the hype horse and he will be the target. While I think he will definitely be the best horse to emerge from this group I think he's vulnerable on his first major step up at a distance that is probably too long for him. I've had a bit of a horse players crush on Noble Court. I thought he was a good bet in all his 4 starts last year and this year. I think he happens to be a great bet in this particular race. His form probably deserves favoritism but he's unlikely to be favorite and he might even be 5/1 because of the field size. He's a hard closing son of a gun that will likely only appear on the screen late but I think he should get a good enough pace to run at.
Noble Court
American Oaks Invitational Stakes
Like the Triple Bend I see this race as a good opportunity to back a very good horse that will likely be at much longer odds than she would normally be. I think Gozzip Girl is special. There are a ton of other horses I respect. Puttanesca, Apple Charlotte, Well Monied, Mrs Kipling and even Nan are all very good horses. But I'm probably just looking to use them in some way with Gozzip Girl. I have been hugely impressed with Albertrani's filly. She has looked good while winning but she has also displayed the class and maturity to adapt. She came from well back in her stakes at Gulfstream but then led them from pillar to post at Belmont. She's fine with firm or yielding ground, she even almost won a G-1 race on polytrack. I think she has the potential to be Wait A While type caliber. This race is her first big chance to prove that. If she wins here she'll be less than 2/1 from now until the Breeders' Cup. Last chance to get a decent price on a filly who probably shouldn't be a decent price.
Gozzip Girl
Saturday, July 04, 2009
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Breeders' Cup Top 10 - FM Sprint
Filly and Mare Sprint Top 10 - July 2nd
1. Informed Decision
2. Ventura
3. Carlsbad
4. Diamondrella
5. Indian Blessing
6. Light Green
7. Sweet August Moon
8. Coco Belle
9. Heart Ashley
10. Elusive Heat
Each Breeders' Cup top 10 list is challenging in it's own way. For other races I had to leave out horses that could surely be considered contenders but for the FM Sprint I really struggled to find 10 horses that I thought could win. It's not that the division is particularly weak it's that there is a small basket of horses that happen to be very strong and it's hard to see anyone but them winning.
The first 5 horses on my list seem to be far better than anyone else and really I could probably restrict it further to just the top 4 because Indian Blessing, bless her soul, does not look like she can beat the elite fillies on a synthetic surface. She handles it well enough, but she definitely loses that bit of brilliance that makes her a tiger on the dirt. Her latest loss at Hollywood was I think more due to fatigue than a complete failure to handle synthetics. Indian Blessing still holds the #5 slot because she's a very talented horse and she is still better than almost everyone in the division. A few injuries might put her right back near the top.
Keeneland's Madison Stakes in April gave us a bit of a Breeders' Cup preview as Informed Decision and Ventura squared off. I don't think anyone can draw too many conclusions about who is better based on that race because they finished heads apart and it was a rare occasion where Velasquez on Informed Decision really out rode Gomez on Ventura. But what I can tell based on that race is that both fillies have immense quality and they're likely going to take a lot of beating in the Breeders' Cup. An exacta involving these two fillies on BC day is a high probability. I like that Informed Decision has a bit more tactical speed than Ventura. In that way she's more of a classic main track horse while Ventura is a turf horse. Synthetics are the neutral ground where these two talents can duke it out. Informed Decision still often leaves her run very late but she is closer to the action early and might be better able to adjust to different pace scenario's. That gives her the slightest edge and the #1 spot for me over Ventura.
The most dangerous synthetic speed filly in North America is Carlsbad. I know that 7f is a difficult distance to wire, especially on BC day when other speed should show up but Carlsbad is one tough cookie. She has already earned speed figures high enough to be competitive with older females and she's just now completed the first half of her 3yo season. If she gets better in the fall like Indian Blessing did last year I may not be able to oppose her. She has already shown enough stamina to carry her speed two turns. She does need to learn to settle a bit as she has proven unwilling to sit behind anyone thus far but pure speed is so deadly when a horse learns how to harness it effectively. She would also have to be nominated to the Breeders' Cup but she might earn her way.
Last year this race saw a mild upset by a Turf horse over a brilliant main track sprinter. Diamondrella might play the role of favorite spoiler this year. Since switching to Angel Penna's barn she is 7-6-1-0. Her only loss came right off a 7 month layoff and she only went down by a head. Since then she's been flawless in Turf sprints and most recently claimed the scalp of Forever Together in a one turn mile. I don't need to convince anyone that it takes a serious horse to beat the Turf champ. Diamondrella has never been on synthetics but many turf horses love it. She is a sprint specialist who closes with an almighty rush. Despite the surface question I consider her a huge threat to win because of her level of talent. Most of the horses pointing for this race simply aren't as good.
The highest female earned sprinting Beyer Speed Figure of the season belongs to the undeveloped Light Green. She ran a massive 109 while winning a minor stakes at Belmont. She has to be considered a wild card because we haven't seen enough of her to know if that figure was legitimate. She gets a test in the Prioress this weekend against another horse in my top 10, Heart Ashley. Heart Ashley is another horse who ran a huge figure (104) but then she backed way off that number next time out. She still won a stakes race but she took it with an 87. All this means to me is that we can't make a conclusive judgement about their ability yet but we have seen flashes of brilliance. I personally think that Light Green will prove to be a better horse than Heart Ashley but since the Prioress form is generally pretty weak they might have to fill out the exacta this weekend to retain my respect. Although Selva is also a decent horse that I have my eye on. She may be good enough to split the pair.
Sweet August Moon and Coco Belle are the best of an ordinary group of locals. I know Venture and Indian Blessing are technically California based but they aren't regulars in the Californian female sprinter program. They ship all over the country and pick their spots. Coco Belle and Sweet August Moon will probably spend the whole season in California and will compile decent records in the stakes. They've already combined for a few wins between them including Coco Belle's upset of Indian Blessing.
I prefer Sweet August Moon because of her steady closing style. Coco Belle is a choppy short striding speed horse who may struggle at 7f. Whenever I look at her I wonder how she even manages to beat stakes horses at all but those little legs just keep on pumping and it works for her. Sweet August Moon just seems smooth and classy, she wins while still well within herself. She has been out of action for a bit and I want to see her returning to the work tab fairly soon but a light campaign for sprinters doesn't worry me much.
For the lack of a better option I'll give the last slot to Elusive Heat. She's a brilliant filly whose mother set the standard for modern sprinting fillies. She has already shown that she can run a big race. The time off to get her just right could pay some real dividends in the second half of the year. Look for her to re-emerge in the last few weeks of Saratoga and from there the sky may be the limit.
1. Informed Decision
2. Ventura
3. Carlsbad
4. Diamondrella
5. Indian Blessing
6. Light Green
7. Sweet August Moon
8. Coco Belle
9. Heart Ashley
10. Elusive Heat
Each Breeders' Cup top 10 list is challenging in it's own way. For other races I had to leave out horses that could surely be considered contenders but for the FM Sprint I really struggled to find 10 horses that I thought could win. It's not that the division is particularly weak it's that there is a small basket of horses that happen to be very strong and it's hard to see anyone but them winning.
The first 5 horses on my list seem to be far better than anyone else and really I could probably restrict it further to just the top 4 because Indian Blessing, bless her soul, does not look like she can beat the elite fillies on a synthetic surface. She handles it well enough, but she definitely loses that bit of brilliance that makes her a tiger on the dirt. Her latest loss at Hollywood was I think more due to fatigue than a complete failure to handle synthetics. Indian Blessing still holds the #5 slot because she's a very talented horse and she is still better than almost everyone in the division. A few injuries might put her right back near the top.
Keeneland's Madison Stakes in April gave us a bit of a Breeders' Cup preview as Informed Decision and Ventura squared off. I don't think anyone can draw too many conclusions about who is better based on that race because they finished heads apart and it was a rare occasion where Velasquez on Informed Decision really out rode Gomez on Ventura. But what I can tell based on that race is that both fillies have immense quality and they're likely going to take a lot of beating in the Breeders' Cup. An exacta involving these two fillies on BC day is a high probability. I like that Informed Decision has a bit more tactical speed than Ventura. In that way she's more of a classic main track horse while Ventura is a turf horse. Synthetics are the neutral ground where these two talents can duke it out. Informed Decision still often leaves her run very late but she is closer to the action early and might be better able to adjust to different pace scenario's. That gives her the slightest edge and the #1 spot for me over Ventura.
The most dangerous synthetic speed filly in North America is Carlsbad. I know that 7f is a difficult distance to wire, especially on BC day when other speed should show up but Carlsbad is one tough cookie. She has already earned speed figures high enough to be competitive with older females and she's just now completed the first half of her 3yo season. If she gets better in the fall like Indian Blessing did last year I may not be able to oppose her. She has already shown enough stamina to carry her speed two turns. She does need to learn to settle a bit as she has proven unwilling to sit behind anyone thus far but pure speed is so deadly when a horse learns how to harness it effectively. She would also have to be nominated to the Breeders' Cup but she might earn her way.
Last year this race saw a mild upset by a Turf horse over a brilliant main track sprinter. Diamondrella might play the role of favorite spoiler this year. Since switching to Angel Penna's barn she is 7-6-1-0. Her only loss came right off a 7 month layoff and she only went down by a head. Since then she's been flawless in Turf sprints and most recently claimed the scalp of Forever Together in a one turn mile. I don't need to convince anyone that it takes a serious horse to beat the Turf champ. Diamondrella has never been on synthetics but many turf horses love it. She is a sprint specialist who closes with an almighty rush. Despite the surface question I consider her a huge threat to win because of her level of talent. Most of the horses pointing for this race simply aren't as good.
The highest female earned sprinting Beyer Speed Figure of the season belongs to the undeveloped Light Green. She ran a massive 109 while winning a minor stakes at Belmont. She has to be considered a wild card because we haven't seen enough of her to know if that figure was legitimate. She gets a test in the Prioress this weekend against another horse in my top 10, Heart Ashley. Heart Ashley is another horse who ran a huge figure (104) but then she backed way off that number next time out. She still won a stakes race but she took it with an 87. All this means to me is that we can't make a conclusive judgement about their ability yet but we have seen flashes of brilliance. I personally think that Light Green will prove to be a better horse than Heart Ashley but since the Prioress form is generally pretty weak they might have to fill out the exacta this weekend to retain my respect. Although Selva is also a decent horse that I have my eye on. She may be good enough to split the pair.
Sweet August Moon and Coco Belle are the best of an ordinary group of locals. I know Venture and Indian Blessing are technically California based but they aren't regulars in the Californian female sprinter program. They ship all over the country and pick their spots. Coco Belle and Sweet August Moon will probably spend the whole season in California and will compile decent records in the stakes. They've already combined for a few wins between them including Coco Belle's upset of Indian Blessing.
I prefer Sweet August Moon because of her steady closing style. Coco Belle is a choppy short striding speed horse who may struggle at 7f. Whenever I look at her I wonder how she even manages to beat stakes horses at all but those little legs just keep on pumping and it works for her. Sweet August Moon just seems smooth and classy, she wins while still well within herself. She has been out of action for a bit and I want to see her returning to the work tab fairly soon but a light campaign for sprinters doesn't worry me much.
For the lack of a better option I'll give the last slot to Elusive Heat. She's a brilliant filly whose mother set the standard for modern sprinting fillies. She has already shown that she can run a big race. The time off to get her just right could pay some real dividends in the second half of the year. Look for her to re-emerge in the last few weeks of Saratoga and from there the sky may be the limit.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Sprint
Sprint Top 10 - July 1st
1. Fatal Bullet
2. Zensational
3. Benny The Bull
4. Georgie Boy
5. Big Drama
6. Red Arrow
7. Munnings
8. Devoted Magic
9. Fabulous Strike
10. Capt. Candyman Can
The Sprint seems like a pretty difficult race to read this far out. All year long as I've been compiling the TCR (point standings featured on the sidebar) I've been noting that the sprinters look weak. Often there are two or three horses that step up and seem to put a gap between themselves and the rest of the division. If anyone has done that yet this year it was Fabulous Strike and Benny The Bull in the True North. Both horses looked fantastic that day but being the best dirt sprinters doesn't make you the most likely BC Sprint winner which, as everyone knows, will be run on synthetics again.
Benny The Bull has only raced once on synthetics and it wasn't the greatest race. He finished 6th in an allowance at Keeneland. If this were a dirt race we were discussing there is no way I'd have him worse than second on any list but he falls to third because of the surface concern. I am willing to give him a bit of a break since he was a different horse in the days when he contested that Keeneland allowance. Results have shown that horses form from Keeneland often has no relation to their form in California. He also ran that day at 7f and his best distance is definitely 6f. I'm also still high on him because I think a classy closer is well suited to Santa Anita sprints. Benny The Bull is a monster on his best day and he's got a great chance.
Fabulous Strike is likely the best 6f dirt horse in the nation but he barely made my list because I think his connections will be reticent to send him to California again after what happened last year. Most people would be thrilled with a solid 5th place finish in the BC Sprint but for a horse that virtually never runs worse than second it was not an encouraging effort. He failed to seriously challenge the pacesetters and really just went at one speed the whole way around. If they're chasing a championship he'll probably show up again and who knows maybe his class will show through this time but this is horse of the best arguments against having championships on synthetics. The Breeders' Cup losses a star even if he runs because when he runs on synthetics he's not even close to the same horse.
If there is a synthetic sprinting equivalent to Fabulous Strike it's probably Fatal Bullet. I rate him as the horse to beat for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. It's not just that he ran second in last year's Sprint. If you look at his complete career record you'll see an above average horse who is extremely consistent. He has only run poorly twice in his career. Both times he was running on a surface other than synthetics. He is 8-6-2-0 in synthetics sprints. His first loss came in his second career start where he was running at 7f, a distance that would prove to be too far. His second loss was in the BC Sprint where he held off everyone but Midnight Lute and earned a 107 Beyer for his effort. Fatal Bullet's last 4 Beyer Speed Figures are 107, 108, 100 and 105. All of those were earned on synthetics last year before the new calculation revision which would see those numbers likely climb a few points. There is no horse this year that has come anywhere close to consistently running those kind of synthetic figures. Fatal Bullet has been struggling with an injury which has prevented him from seeing the races but he's back to regular works in the mornings and he should be in action soon enough. A light campaign is actually often better for the Sprint anyway.
Call him a hype horse but I believe the hype surrounding Zensational. He's a freaky fast horse who likes synthetic tracks and has one of the best sprint trainers in the nation. Baffert has another potential champion on his hands and you know he has Breeders' Cup on his mind. Zensational makes his stakes debut Sunday in the Triple Bend (G-1). I actually would not be surprised to see him lose the race because it's a huge step up from allowance level sophomores and it's a 7f race. But he's going to be very tough to beat, his competitors are going to realize just how tough this son of a gun is.
Another reason the sprint division has seemed a touch weak is the absence, through injury, of Georgie Boy. Georgie Boy does not have a look or record that screams pure sprinter but he does scream pure class. This is a horse that some people thought might win the Kentucky Derby until he got injured before the SA Derby. His record up to that point was 7-4-2-1 and he had run almost exclusively in sprints. But he has such a flashy turn of foot that fans of his figured he might have a shot at any distance if properly used. That same logic applies to his chances in the Sprint. He probably looks like a miler and he'll be a top contender in my BC Dirt Mile list as well but he's got that one quick thrust that makes him pretty effective at 6f as well. He is undefeated in two starts this year with wins in the Sunshine Millions Sprint and San Carlos. He got a 103 Beyer for each effort so we know he is in the neighborhood of fast enough. He has been struggling with quarter cracks for months now but one thing we must remember about the Sprint is that even long layoffs are usually no problem. It would not seriously bother me if Georgie Boy did not make another start until the BC Sprint itself.
Big Drama is the only horse in my top 10 that has not yet raced on a synthetic surface but that does not persuade me that he cannot handle it. Big Drama is a win machine. He has run 9 times and has arrived at the finish line first on 7 of those occasions. He's got great tactical speed and it capable of the brilliant as well as the workmanlike. Often brilliant horses don't also add consistency to their arsenal but this horse has both. He might be a wild card on the surface until the BC itself but he'll be dangerous.
Red Arrow is still developing as a sprinter although he's already an older horse. He has had only a few starts in North America since coming from Australia. He's a big powerful horse like Zensational or Fabulous Strike and John Sadler has been bringing him along very well. The stakes quality in California sprints is not great when you take out Georgie Boy but he's probably second best and still has a chance to improve.
Munnings is one of the hottest horses in the nation right now because of his big move in the Woody Stephens. He was excellent that day and he has all the tools to become a great sprinter. Synthetics is a question mark since he was terrible in last year's juvenile but I think it was mostly the distance that did him in. He hooks up with Fabulous Strike this weekend at Belmont in what promises to be a most intriguing affair. I doubt the result will change my opinion of their chances in this race very much because the conditions are so different but it should give us an idea of the true class that Munnings has.
The Sprint has turned up some wacky results in the past and a win for a horse like Devoted Magic would definitely qualify as a wacky result. But I have to respect a closer who is capable of the odd brilliant race on his day. Not unlike 97' Sprint winner Elmhurst, Devoted Magic is an older late closing gelding that is pretty useful at 6f when he feels like it. He's not the most consistent horse which is what has kept him out of regular stakes company but he has run a 107 Beyer at Santa Anita and finished second in a G-2. Don't write him off completely, even if his form looks pretty much the same by BC day.
Capt. Candyman Can is the last horse on my list and is one that most people would probably say lacks the necessary speed to beat elite sprinters at 6f. What I like most about him is that he wins. Like Big Drama and Fatal Bullet this horse is a winner and no one has been able to figure out how to beat him in a dirt sprint. His one synthetic try was a decent effort in a messy race that was really too far for him. He finished a troubled 6th in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. I thought he actually ran well that day. Well enough to suggest that the surface should not beat him outright. He's not a real speed ball, as 3yo he seems to have developed into an intelligent horse with a nose for the wire. He runs as fast as he has to in order to get in front. He needs to get better but three year olds often do over the summer and fall.
1. Fatal Bullet
2. Zensational
3. Benny The Bull
4. Georgie Boy
5. Big Drama
6. Red Arrow
7. Munnings
8. Devoted Magic
9. Fabulous Strike
10. Capt. Candyman Can
The Sprint seems like a pretty difficult race to read this far out. All year long as I've been compiling the TCR (point standings featured on the sidebar) I've been noting that the sprinters look weak. Often there are two or three horses that step up and seem to put a gap between themselves and the rest of the division. If anyone has done that yet this year it was Fabulous Strike and Benny The Bull in the True North. Both horses looked fantastic that day but being the best dirt sprinters doesn't make you the most likely BC Sprint winner which, as everyone knows, will be run on synthetics again.
Benny The Bull has only raced once on synthetics and it wasn't the greatest race. He finished 6th in an allowance at Keeneland. If this were a dirt race we were discussing there is no way I'd have him worse than second on any list but he falls to third because of the surface concern. I am willing to give him a bit of a break since he was a different horse in the days when he contested that Keeneland allowance. Results have shown that horses form from Keeneland often has no relation to their form in California. He also ran that day at 7f and his best distance is definitely 6f. I'm also still high on him because I think a classy closer is well suited to Santa Anita sprints. Benny The Bull is a monster on his best day and he's got a great chance.
Fabulous Strike is likely the best 6f dirt horse in the nation but he barely made my list because I think his connections will be reticent to send him to California again after what happened last year. Most people would be thrilled with a solid 5th place finish in the BC Sprint but for a horse that virtually never runs worse than second it was not an encouraging effort. He failed to seriously challenge the pacesetters and really just went at one speed the whole way around. If they're chasing a championship he'll probably show up again and who knows maybe his class will show through this time but this is horse of the best arguments against having championships on synthetics. The Breeders' Cup losses a star even if he runs because when he runs on synthetics he's not even close to the same horse.
If there is a synthetic sprinting equivalent to Fabulous Strike it's probably Fatal Bullet. I rate him as the horse to beat for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. It's not just that he ran second in last year's Sprint. If you look at his complete career record you'll see an above average horse who is extremely consistent. He has only run poorly twice in his career. Both times he was running on a surface other than synthetics. He is 8-6-2-0 in synthetics sprints. His first loss came in his second career start where he was running at 7f, a distance that would prove to be too far. His second loss was in the BC Sprint where he held off everyone but Midnight Lute and earned a 107 Beyer for his effort. Fatal Bullet's last 4 Beyer Speed Figures are 107, 108, 100 and 105. All of those were earned on synthetics last year before the new calculation revision which would see those numbers likely climb a few points. There is no horse this year that has come anywhere close to consistently running those kind of synthetic figures. Fatal Bullet has been struggling with an injury which has prevented him from seeing the races but he's back to regular works in the mornings and he should be in action soon enough. A light campaign is actually often better for the Sprint anyway.
Call him a hype horse but I believe the hype surrounding Zensational. He's a freaky fast horse who likes synthetic tracks and has one of the best sprint trainers in the nation. Baffert has another potential champion on his hands and you know he has Breeders' Cup on his mind. Zensational makes his stakes debut Sunday in the Triple Bend (G-1). I actually would not be surprised to see him lose the race because it's a huge step up from allowance level sophomores and it's a 7f race. But he's going to be very tough to beat, his competitors are going to realize just how tough this son of a gun is.
Another reason the sprint division has seemed a touch weak is the absence, through injury, of Georgie Boy. Georgie Boy does not have a look or record that screams pure sprinter but he does scream pure class. This is a horse that some people thought might win the Kentucky Derby until he got injured before the SA Derby. His record up to that point was 7-4-2-1 and he had run almost exclusively in sprints. But he has such a flashy turn of foot that fans of his figured he might have a shot at any distance if properly used. That same logic applies to his chances in the Sprint. He probably looks like a miler and he'll be a top contender in my BC Dirt Mile list as well but he's got that one quick thrust that makes him pretty effective at 6f as well. He is undefeated in two starts this year with wins in the Sunshine Millions Sprint and San Carlos. He got a 103 Beyer for each effort so we know he is in the neighborhood of fast enough. He has been struggling with quarter cracks for months now but one thing we must remember about the Sprint is that even long layoffs are usually no problem. It would not seriously bother me if Georgie Boy did not make another start until the BC Sprint itself.
Big Drama is the only horse in my top 10 that has not yet raced on a synthetic surface but that does not persuade me that he cannot handle it. Big Drama is a win machine. He has run 9 times and has arrived at the finish line first on 7 of those occasions. He's got great tactical speed and it capable of the brilliant as well as the workmanlike. Often brilliant horses don't also add consistency to their arsenal but this horse has both. He might be a wild card on the surface until the BC itself but he'll be dangerous.
Red Arrow is still developing as a sprinter although he's already an older horse. He has had only a few starts in North America since coming from Australia. He's a big powerful horse like Zensational or Fabulous Strike and John Sadler has been bringing him along very well. The stakes quality in California sprints is not great when you take out Georgie Boy but he's probably second best and still has a chance to improve.
Munnings is one of the hottest horses in the nation right now because of his big move in the Woody Stephens. He was excellent that day and he has all the tools to become a great sprinter. Synthetics is a question mark since he was terrible in last year's juvenile but I think it was mostly the distance that did him in. He hooks up with Fabulous Strike this weekend at Belmont in what promises to be a most intriguing affair. I doubt the result will change my opinion of their chances in this race very much because the conditions are so different but it should give us an idea of the true class that Munnings has.
The Sprint has turned up some wacky results in the past and a win for a horse like Devoted Magic would definitely qualify as a wacky result. But I have to respect a closer who is capable of the odd brilliant race on his day. Not unlike 97' Sprint winner Elmhurst, Devoted Magic is an older late closing gelding that is pretty useful at 6f when he feels like it. He's not the most consistent horse which is what has kept him out of regular stakes company but he has run a 107 Beyer at Santa Anita and finished second in a G-2. Don't write him off completely, even if his form looks pretty much the same by BC day.
Capt. Candyman Can is the last horse on my list and is one that most people would probably say lacks the necessary speed to beat elite sprinters at 6f. What I like most about him is that he wins. Like Big Drama and Fatal Bullet this horse is a winner and no one has been able to figure out how to beat him in a dirt sprint. His one synthetic try was a decent effort in a messy race that was really too far for him. He finished a troubled 6th in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. I thought he actually ran well that day. Well enough to suggest that the surface should not beat him outright. He's not a real speed ball, as 3yo he seems to have developed into an intelligent horse with a nose for the wire. He runs as fast as he has to in order to get in front. He needs to get better but three year olds often do over the summer and fall.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Weekend Review
Weekend Overview: The two best horses in the nation were in action this weekend and while fans will have enjoyed seeing them win all the focus is on how we get them to face each other. Zenyatta's owners seemed very keen to chase Rachel Alexandra in the hopes of getting Horse of the Year. They rightly recognize that the path they had originally set out for her would not add up to anything other than a divisional Eclipse Award. Rachel Alexandra is the horse to catch for Horse of the Year and Zenyatta will have to come and get her. Unfortunately for all would be challengers Rachel Alexandra just looks like she's in a zone right now. She beat nothing but she was moving very sweetly and recorded a very fast time. Zenyatta on the other hand seemed to take a while to get into the race even though she was being asked a long way out. She won as she always does but this was not her best race. Euphony continued her roll in the minor stakes races with a nice win in the Iowa Distaff while Jonesboro seems to be finding the best form of his life as he took the Cornhusker. It was the first G-2 win for the 7 year old who seems to still be loving life after 40 career starts. Rahy's Attorney, Black Mamba and Porte Bonheur were the other notable race winners this weekend. It also should not go unnoticed that Dutrow has now nursed Wishful Tomcat through 3 straight stakes wins. They have all been in state-bred company but he's getting nice figures and he's already a G-3 winner on the dirt as well as a minor stakes winner on the grass. Other than a rough 3 race skid with Bobby Frankel, Wishful Tomcat has been a very consistent and very dangerous speed horse.
Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: The question of the First-half Horse of the Year is easily settled. It's Rachel Alexandra. She has been leading the standings for the last 7 weeks and her latest victory only widened her lead. Rachel Alexandra has had one of the most impressive half seasons in recent history. Her score of 252.84 virtually ensures her a top 10 overall finish even if she never ran again. If she wins 2 or 3 more races I don't think it will be possible for anyone to catch her. Kodiak Kowboy overtook Fabulous Strike again to take the lead in a limp Male Sprinter division. No one has really stepped up and made this division their own.
Power Rankings: It's official, Rachel Alexandra is the top horse in the nation by every measurement I've got and at her current rating of 31.61 she is the best 3yo filly I've got on record (1999 to the present) and the third best female period. She ranks behind only Zenyatta from 2008 and Azeri from 2002. Power Rankings do decline with losses though so Rachel Alexandra will have to keep up her high level of performance for the rest of the season to maintain or better her lofty status. Zenyatta's first G-1 win of the season saw her take a huge jump in the rankings. She moved all the way into third among the older females, another win may just put her in front. Rahy's Attorney and Porte Bonheur were the only other significant movers in the Power Rankings. Both horses broke into their divisional top 5's for the first time this year.
Performance of the Week: A horse that was at his most impressive was Rahy's Attorney. He won the King Edward going wire to wire and earning a 106 Beyer for his effort. It's not easy to go 9f at Woodbine all the way on the front end, especially with good horses like Sterwins and Society's Chairman in the race. He went the first quarter pretty slowly but then Sterwins rushed up to force the issue and Rahy's Attorney drilled his next 3 quarters in :23.20, :22.52 and :22.43. Hardly any horse can close into those kind of numbers. He finished off his last furlong in :11.95 to score a comfortable length victory. Sterwins stayed on for second but the winner just never came back to him. Rahy's Attorney seems to have picked up where he left off at Woodbine last year. He won the Woodbine Mile over Kip Deville and Ventura last year before finishing off the season with a couple of poor efforts out of town. But back at Woodbine he lost the Connaught Cup on his seasonal debut by a head but turned the tables on Sterwins in emphatic fashion here in the King Edward. His last 3 Woodbine Beyer figures have been 106, 101 and 107. He ought to make any potential shippers think twice about coming to Woodbine.
Race of the Week: I loved Churchill's Debutante as a visual spectacle. Although the stretch battle between Decelerator and Wild Forest Cat was a bit messy, with plenty of bumping it was a fantastic contest between the top two. Two year olds often have problems keeping a straight course when under severe pressure and the top pair in this race were under the most pressure possible. They both wanted to win and they really threw it down for the length of the stretch. I'm already looking forward to Act II at Saratoga.
Flop of the Week: Carolyn's Cat came into the First Flight Handicap as a legitimate favorite in good form but she wound up involved in a speed duel that cost her all respectability. She failed to beat a single horse in the First Flight. I don't know if she just didn't show or if I should be getting after Garcia for the ride. But either way her last place finish was a massive flop.
Tip O'the Cap: It seems as if the match up between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta has fallen to the Moss's and NYRA to organize. Jackson has trumpeted himself as a sportsman but he's not the one that is looking to make this match up a reality. I'm glad Mr. Moss can see that his horse's initially proposed campaign was not tough enough to earn Horse of the Year. To be Horse of the Year you can't just be the most talented you have to earn it. Sending Zenyatta to New York in search of Rachel is a nice step towards earning the right to be Horse of the Year. The Breeders' Cup Classic has also been mentioned as a possibility so this week I'm doffing my cap to ambitious plans. I sure hope they become a reality.
KC Handicapping: Another tough week for me at the windows. I was encouraged by Soul Warrior's good second in the Iowa Derby. A 2nd place finish as a 13/1 shot is a decent performance and i was much more confident about my other two picks. I really could not believe that both Native Ruler and Victory Pete missed the frame. That was pretty unbelievable. Nothing is coming easy for me at the moment.
The good news is that I'm still alive in the Survival at The Shore contest. I've lasted 26 days and that is apparently long enough to earn a lifesaver (a one time free pass if you strike out) 4,266 handicappers entered and just 496 remain. I'm pleased to be one of them.
Weekly Record: 3(3)-0-1-0 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 780(436)-133-124-99 (-$159.90 -10.25% ROI)
Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: The question of the First-half Horse of the Year is easily settled. It's Rachel Alexandra. She has been leading the standings for the last 7 weeks and her latest victory only widened her lead. Rachel Alexandra has had one of the most impressive half seasons in recent history. Her score of 252.84 virtually ensures her a top 10 overall finish even if she never ran again. If she wins 2 or 3 more races I don't think it will be possible for anyone to catch her. Kodiak Kowboy overtook Fabulous Strike again to take the lead in a limp Male Sprinter division. No one has really stepped up and made this division their own.
Power Rankings: It's official, Rachel Alexandra is the top horse in the nation by every measurement I've got and at her current rating of 31.61 she is the best 3yo filly I've got on record (1999 to the present) and the third best female period. She ranks behind only Zenyatta from 2008 and Azeri from 2002. Power Rankings do decline with losses though so Rachel Alexandra will have to keep up her high level of performance for the rest of the season to maintain or better her lofty status. Zenyatta's first G-1 win of the season saw her take a huge jump in the rankings. She moved all the way into third among the older females, another win may just put her in front. Rahy's Attorney and Porte Bonheur were the only other significant movers in the Power Rankings. Both horses broke into their divisional top 5's for the first time this year.
Performance of the Week: A horse that was at his most impressive was Rahy's Attorney. He won the King Edward going wire to wire and earning a 106 Beyer for his effort. It's not easy to go 9f at Woodbine all the way on the front end, especially with good horses like Sterwins and Society's Chairman in the race. He went the first quarter pretty slowly but then Sterwins rushed up to force the issue and Rahy's Attorney drilled his next 3 quarters in :23.20, :22.52 and :22.43. Hardly any horse can close into those kind of numbers. He finished off his last furlong in :11.95 to score a comfortable length victory. Sterwins stayed on for second but the winner just never came back to him. Rahy's Attorney seems to have picked up where he left off at Woodbine last year. He won the Woodbine Mile over Kip Deville and Ventura last year before finishing off the season with a couple of poor efforts out of town. But back at Woodbine he lost the Connaught Cup on his seasonal debut by a head but turned the tables on Sterwins in emphatic fashion here in the King Edward. His last 3 Woodbine Beyer figures have been 106, 101 and 107. He ought to make any potential shippers think twice about coming to Woodbine.
Race of the Week: I loved Churchill's Debutante as a visual spectacle. Although the stretch battle between Decelerator and Wild Forest Cat was a bit messy, with plenty of bumping it was a fantastic contest between the top two. Two year olds often have problems keeping a straight course when under severe pressure and the top pair in this race were under the most pressure possible. They both wanted to win and they really threw it down for the length of the stretch. I'm already looking forward to Act II at Saratoga.
Flop of the Week: Carolyn's Cat came into the First Flight Handicap as a legitimate favorite in good form but she wound up involved in a speed duel that cost her all respectability. She failed to beat a single horse in the First Flight. I don't know if she just didn't show or if I should be getting after Garcia for the ride. But either way her last place finish was a massive flop.
Tip O'the Cap: It seems as if the match up between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta has fallen to the Moss's and NYRA to organize. Jackson has trumpeted himself as a sportsman but he's not the one that is looking to make this match up a reality. I'm glad Mr. Moss can see that his horse's initially proposed campaign was not tough enough to earn Horse of the Year. To be Horse of the Year you can't just be the most talented you have to earn it. Sending Zenyatta to New York in search of Rachel is a nice step towards earning the right to be Horse of the Year. The Breeders' Cup Classic has also been mentioned as a possibility so this week I'm doffing my cap to ambitious plans. I sure hope they become a reality.
KC Handicapping: Another tough week for me at the windows. I was encouraged by Soul Warrior's good second in the Iowa Derby. A 2nd place finish as a 13/1 shot is a decent performance and i was much more confident about my other two picks. I really could not believe that both Native Ruler and Victory Pete missed the frame. That was pretty unbelievable. Nothing is coming easy for me at the moment.
The good news is that I'm still alive in the Survival at The Shore contest. I've lasted 26 days and that is apparently long enough to earn a lifesaver (a one time free pass if you strike out) 4,266 handicappers entered and just 496 remain. I'm pleased to be one of them.
Weekly Record: 3(3)-0-1-0 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 780(436)-133-124-99 (-$159.90 -10.25% ROI)
Friday, June 26, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Iowa Derby
This race has more or less attracted the third tier of sophomore talent. The favorite is Terrain and he's winless in his last 6 starts. He might have the most class based on the horses he has been losing to but he's nothing to be scared of. In fact I wouldn't laugh off the chances of any horse in this race. I am naturally drawn to the Asmussen pair because they seem odd to me. Uno Mas is winless in 6 starts this year and gets the local rider Ocampo but he's 4/1. Soul Warrior gets the everyday stable #1 Bridgmohan who flies in to ride this 15/1 shot who is coming off a nice win at Churchill. I think I like Soul Warrior quite a bit in what promises to be a slow paced event. No one has dedicated speed but Soul Warrior looked like he found new life when he flashed some speed last time out. I don't think he was ready for Graded Stakes company when Asmussen rushed him into the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby but this is a class level he should be able to handle. Soul Warrior offers good value in this Derby. Another horse I really like is Conchacer. His connections obviously thought of him as more of a sprinter but in his first route he performed quite well. I think they sent a clear a bit too early and it left him exposed. Corbett rides him back and will surely have last race in his mind when he plots his move. I'm not really sure enough about this race to take a strong stand with one or two horses. In a multi-race wager I'd spread myself deeply but if I'm just looking for a horse in the win pool I'd like to put it on Soul Warrior and hope for a big race.
Soul Warrior
Iowa Sprint Handicap
I think the morning line odds maker is right when he makes Silver Edition, Native Ruler and Bold Start the top 3 choices. I know Semaphore Man and Sok Sok are close behind them on the odds board but I think the race will be decided among the top 3. No one is that great in this race but most of these horses are very consistent. I like Native Ruler more than the rest of the top trio. He's a winner. In fact he's only lost one of his last 9 dirt sprints. He's a consistent sprinting machine who has already shown an affinity for this racetrack. Connections seem to be trying not squeeze him dry with a hard early campaign. He should be fresh for this race and it could serve as a springboard into Graded Stakes company.
Native Ruler
Cornhusker Handicap
I've been waiting to play Victory Pete on a traditional dirt track ever since last spring when he made a brief but speedy flash on the triple crown trail. At the time I thought he looked like a dirt horse and this is the best chance to get a good price on him for the move. He has decent form on Turf and Synthetic, enough to show that he's still a runner. His early speed has been toned down a bit which is a good thing because a lot of horses in this race can run from the gate. I look for Victory Pete to get a nice stalking trip a few lengths back from a healthy pace. If he handles the dirt from there he should be good enough. I also think there is some value in using Stonehouse. take out the Turf and Synthetic races from his running lines and his record on dirt looks fabulous. 4 wins and 2 seconds in his last 7 dirt starts. He seems to go well on any track. The only reason he isn't my primary choice is because there is a lot of speed in the race and he is unlikely to back off from his inside berth. He pretty much needs to go after this one early, maybe the others will back off knowing he'll be sent but I can't have much confidence in him. Not because of his form but solely because of the pace.
Victory Pete
This race has more or less attracted the third tier of sophomore talent. The favorite is Terrain and he's winless in his last 6 starts. He might have the most class based on the horses he has been losing to but he's nothing to be scared of. In fact I wouldn't laugh off the chances of any horse in this race. I am naturally drawn to the Asmussen pair because they seem odd to me. Uno Mas is winless in 6 starts this year and gets the local rider Ocampo but he's 4/1. Soul Warrior gets the everyday stable #1 Bridgmohan who flies in to ride this 15/1 shot who is coming off a nice win at Churchill. I think I like Soul Warrior quite a bit in what promises to be a slow paced event. No one has dedicated speed but Soul Warrior looked like he found new life when he flashed some speed last time out. I don't think he was ready for Graded Stakes company when Asmussen rushed him into the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby but this is a class level he should be able to handle. Soul Warrior offers good value in this Derby. Another horse I really like is Conchacer. His connections obviously thought of him as more of a sprinter but in his first route he performed quite well. I think they sent a clear a bit too early and it left him exposed. Corbett rides him back and will surely have last race in his mind when he plots his move. I'm not really sure enough about this race to take a strong stand with one or two horses. In a multi-race wager I'd spread myself deeply but if I'm just looking for a horse in the win pool I'd like to put it on Soul Warrior and hope for a big race.
Soul Warrior
Iowa Sprint Handicap
I think the morning line odds maker is right when he makes Silver Edition, Native Ruler and Bold Start the top 3 choices. I know Semaphore Man and Sok Sok are close behind them on the odds board but I think the race will be decided among the top 3. No one is that great in this race but most of these horses are very consistent. I like Native Ruler more than the rest of the top trio. He's a winner. In fact he's only lost one of his last 9 dirt sprints. He's a consistent sprinting machine who has already shown an affinity for this racetrack. Connections seem to be trying not squeeze him dry with a hard early campaign. He should be fresh for this race and it could serve as a springboard into Graded Stakes company.
Native Ruler
Cornhusker Handicap
I've been waiting to play Victory Pete on a traditional dirt track ever since last spring when he made a brief but speedy flash on the triple crown trail. At the time I thought he looked like a dirt horse and this is the best chance to get a good price on him for the move. He has decent form on Turf and Synthetic, enough to show that he's still a runner. His early speed has been toned down a bit which is a good thing because a lot of horses in this race can run from the gate. I look for Victory Pete to get a nice stalking trip a few lengths back from a healthy pace. If he handles the dirt from there he should be good enough. I also think there is some value in using Stonehouse. take out the Turf and Synthetic races from his running lines and his record on dirt looks fabulous. 4 wins and 2 seconds in his last 7 dirt starts. He seems to go well on any track. The only reason he isn't my primary choice is because there is a lot of speed in the race and he is unlikely to back off from his inside berth. He pretty much needs to go after this one early, maybe the others will back off knowing he'll be sent but I can't have much confidence in him. Not because of his form but solely because of the pace.
Victory Pete
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Breeders' Cup Top 10 - FM Turf
Filly and Mare Turf Top 10- June 25
1. Forever Together
2. Pure Clan
3. Gozzip Girl
4. Look Here
5. Acoma
6. Rainbow View
7. Cocoa Beach
8. Rutherienne
9. Well Monied
10. Cuis Ghaire
Unlike the male equivalent I do not have a significant bias towards Europeans for this race. The European older female ranks are often somewhat lackluster so in general the biggest danger will come from the sophomores. Unfortunately for Breeders' Cup officials the two best middle distance sophomore fillies in Europe are not nominated, seem to prefer softer ground and run for connections that are not exactly eager to ship. Stacelita and Sariska look like very nice fillies indeed but I consider both highly unlikely to run. So much so that neither are included in my top 10.
Top ranking goes to the defending champion Forever Together. I know she is coming off a loss and hasn't yet hit the heights of last year but she'll be patiently primed for a big effort when it counts. I also have a theory on her that she is not as good in one turn races or on deep courses like Belmont, Woodbine or Arlington. Her three efforts on the first two tracks mentioned seem to bear witness that she just doesn't have the same kick on deep courses. That's something to keep in mind if she goes to the Beverly D. If that course if soft at all I'd consider her vulnerable. But Santa Anita's rock hard golf green is right up her street and I think she does still have the swagger that saw her rocket from the back in the Diana and FM Turf. I actually think that it might be a bit easier for her this year. Wait A While was a very serious firm ground horse, I don't see any American fillies at the moment who are of that quality.
Pure Clan found herself outclassed in this race last year but with another year's experience under her belt I think she has a great chance. It's very hard for an American 3yo filly to win this race so I don't blame Pure Clan for finding herself in above her head. Her record on Turf is very solid and I think she does handle 10f very well. An interesting little fact about the FM Turf is that repeat runners have done very well. In just 10 runnings a full 10 horses have won or finished in the frame on their second or third attempt in this race. So watch for quality horses that are returning. Pure Clan is a bit light speed figure wise. Generally I like to see the capability to run triple digit figures but she has plenty of time to improve and this group seems a touch weak.
I know I said it's a very difficult race for 3yo's to win but I actually have four 3yo's in my top 10. Two of them are from America and Gozzip Girl is actually my #3. She is 5-4-0-1 on the grass and her last three turf Beyer figures were 95, 90 and 91. Those aren't the kind of numbers that blow you away but we're not even in the second half of the year yet. There have only been 3 entrants in the FM Turf that have achieved a 95 or greater Turf Beyer figure before July of their 3yo year. Perfect Sting, Tout Charmant and Tranqulity Lake all equalled the feat and the first two made up the exacta in 2000. Gozzip Girl is classy and versatile with the ability to adapt to any pace. If she continues to improve she'll be very tough. I would like her to face older horses at least once before the BC though. I think that experience is invaluable.
Well Monied is the other American 3yo I have on my list and she is not as impressive figures wise but visually there is hardly anyone more impressive than this striking gray. Since breaking her maiden she's been a very tough horse to handle. Being based in California she will be familiar with the course. I expect her to do very well in the summer grass stakes for fillies. She has a very high cruising speed.
Look Here is the top European hope in my opinion. Although she is not nominated to the race she would first or second choice if she came. She won the Oaks last year and was a tight third in the G-1 Coronation Cup against males on her seasonal reappearance. I was always rather unimpressed with her physically but she's a runner.
Acoma and Cocoa Beach are the only Graded Turf Stakes winning females that are also undefeated on the grass, that I'm aware of. They check in at #5 and #7. Until this past weekend I was going to put Cocoa Beach as high as second but she was horrendous in the slop at Belmont and she had previously done well under those conditions. Hopefully it was just a bit of rust. Cocoa Beach is well suited to this race but the biggest threat to her participation is the fact that she's also very good on the main track. Acoma is also quite proficient on all surfaces, I think both of these fillies could do well in the Ladies Classic but they also might show up here where they rate an excellent chance. Acoma is 3 for 3 on grass and most recently claimed the scalp of Pure Clan and Tizaqueena at Churchill. She's got a very quick turn of foot and while the distance may be a problem I don't think 10f at Santa Anita is quite as sapping as 10f at Woodbine or Belmont.
Rainbow View runs for the same ownership as Forever Together, the Augustin stable is mob handed with Winter View and Fantasia as well but Rainbow View is the second best in this stable. She was a dominant 2yo in Europe but has found the transition to 3yo company a bit more difficult. She has been 3rd in a G-1 mile event and was 4th in the Oaks while appearing not to stay. She has not performed poorly at all but she does seem just short of championship class on European courses. My feeling is that a switch to North America and the 10f distance will both be perfect for her. She's a classy horse with lots of room to still improve.
I'm not sure what to do with Rutherienne, part of me thinks that she is just the same type of horse as Criticism. A consistent horse that will win a lot of races but probably could do no better than run third when all the best talent in the division is assembled. They run the same figures nearly every time and although their average performance is at a very high level they don't seem to have that one big effort in them. It usually takes the capability to run a brilliant race to win a BC event. Rutherienne does get included in my list though because after an unbelievable run of 6 third place finishes and a second she finally got back into the winners circle. Breaking through that mental block may have a nice positive impact on her and we just may see her take her game to the next level. She will likely hang out at Woodbine for much of the year with a foray to Arlington for the Beverly D so it's possible that she could win a bunch of races without being in the limelight too much. Woodbine has a solid grass program though so don't underestimate the form.
The last horse on my list is a European filly named Cuis Ghaire (pronounced Cush Gaar-uh) She has a bit of a spotty record but the one constant is explosive form on firm ground and terrible form on soft ground. She simply does not run a step on soft ground but the only horses to beat her on firm ground are Ghanaati, the current top filly in Europe and Rip Van Winkle, a highly touted colt from Ballydolye. I don't know if connections would consider sending her but she's the right type.
1. Forever Together
2. Pure Clan
3. Gozzip Girl
4. Look Here
5. Acoma
6. Rainbow View
7. Cocoa Beach
8. Rutherienne
9. Well Monied
10. Cuis Ghaire
Unlike the male equivalent I do not have a significant bias towards Europeans for this race. The European older female ranks are often somewhat lackluster so in general the biggest danger will come from the sophomores. Unfortunately for Breeders' Cup officials the two best middle distance sophomore fillies in Europe are not nominated, seem to prefer softer ground and run for connections that are not exactly eager to ship. Stacelita and Sariska look like very nice fillies indeed but I consider both highly unlikely to run. So much so that neither are included in my top 10.
Top ranking goes to the defending champion Forever Together. I know she is coming off a loss and hasn't yet hit the heights of last year but she'll be patiently primed for a big effort when it counts. I also have a theory on her that she is not as good in one turn races or on deep courses like Belmont, Woodbine or Arlington. Her three efforts on the first two tracks mentioned seem to bear witness that she just doesn't have the same kick on deep courses. That's something to keep in mind if she goes to the Beverly D. If that course if soft at all I'd consider her vulnerable. But Santa Anita's rock hard golf green is right up her street and I think she does still have the swagger that saw her rocket from the back in the Diana and FM Turf. I actually think that it might be a bit easier for her this year. Wait A While was a very serious firm ground horse, I don't see any American fillies at the moment who are of that quality.
Pure Clan found herself outclassed in this race last year but with another year's experience under her belt I think she has a great chance. It's very hard for an American 3yo filly to win this race so I don't blame Pure Clan for finding herself in above her head. Her record on Turf is very solid and I think she does handle 10f very well. An interesting little fact about the FM Turf is that repeat runners have done very well. In just 10 runnings a full 10 horses have won or finished in the frame on their second or third attempt in this race. So watch for quality horses that are returning. Pure Clan is a bit light speed figure wise. Generally I like to see the capability to run triple digit figures but she has plenty of time to improve and this group seems a touch weak.
I know I said it's a very difficult race for 3yo's to win but I actually have four 3yo's in my top 10. Two of them are from America and Gozzip Girl is actually my #3. She is 5-4-0-1 on the grass and her last three turf Beyer figures were 95, 90 and 91. Those aren't the kind of numbers that blow you away but we're not even in the second half of the year yet. There have only been 3 entrants in the FM Turf that have achieved a 95 or greater Turf Beyer figure before July of their 3yo year. Perfect Sting, Tout Charmant and Tranqulity Lake all equalled the feat and the first two made up the exacta in 2000. Gozzip Girl is classy and versatile with the ability to adapt to any pace. If she continues to improve she'll be very tough. I would like her to face older horses at least once before the BC though. I think that experience is invaluable.
Well Monied is the other American 3yo I have on my list and she is not as impressive figures wise but visually there is hardly anyone more impressive than this striking gray. Since breaking her maiden she's been a very tough horse to handle. Being based in California she will be familiar with the course. I expect her to do very well in the summer grass stakes for fillies. She has a very high cruising speed.
Look Here is the top European hope in my opinion. Although she is not nominated to the race she would first or second choice if she came. She won the Oaks last year and was a tight third in the G-1 Coronation Cup against males on her seasonal reappearance. I was always rather unimpressed with her physically but she's a runner.
Acoma and Cocoa Beach are the only Graded Turf Stakes winning females that are also undefeated on the grass, that I'm aware of. They check in at #5 and #7. Until this past weekend I was going to put Cocoa Beach as high as second but she was horrendous in the slop at Belmont and she had previously done well under those conditions. Hopefully it was just a bit of rust. Cocoa Beach is well suited to this race but the biggest threat to her participation is the fact that she's also very good on the main track. Acoma is also quite proficient on all surfaces, I think both of these fillies could do well in the Ladies Classic but they also might show up here where they rate an excellent chance. Acoma is 3 for 3 on grass and most recently claimed the scalp of Pure Clan and Tizaqueena at Churchill. She's got a very quick turn of foot and while the distance may be a problem I don't think 10f at Santa Anita is quite as sapping as 10f at Woodbine or Belmont.
Rainbow View runs for the same ownership as Forever Together, the Augustin stable is mob handed with Winter View and Fantasia as well but Rainbow View is the second best in this stable. She was a dominant 2yo in Europe but has found the transition to 3yo company a bit more difficult. She has been 3rd in a G-1 mile event and was 4th in the Oaks while appearing not to stay. She has not performed poorly at all but she does seem just short of championship class on European courses. My feeling is that a switch to North America and the 10f distance will both be perfect for her. She's a classy horse with lots of room to still improve.
I'm not sure what to do with Rutherienne, part of me thinks that she is just the same type of horse as Criticism. A consistent horse that will win a lot of races but probably could do no better than run third when all the best talent in the division is assembled. They run the same figures nearly every time and although their average performance is at a very high level they don't seem to have that one big effort in them. It usually takes the capability to run a brilliant race to win a BC event. Rutherienne does get included in my list though because after an unbelievable run of 6 third place finishes and a second she finally got back into the winners circle. Breaking through that mental block may have a nice positive impact on her and we just may see her take her game to the next level. She will likely hang out at Woodbine for much of the year with a foray to Arlington for the Beverly D so it's possible that she could win a bunch of races without being in the limelight too much. Woodbine has a solid grass program though so don't underestimate the form.
The last horse on my list is a European filly named Cuis Ghaire (pronounced Cush Gaar-uh) She has a bit of a spotty record but the one constant is explosive form on firm ground and terrible form on soft ground. She simply does not run a step on soft ground but the only horses to beat her on firm ground are Ghanaati, the current top filly in Europe and Rip Van Winkle, a highly touted colt from Ballydolye. I don't know if connections would consider sending her but she's the right type.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Turf
Turf Top 10 - June 23rd
1. Tartan Bearer
2. Fame And Glory
3. Conduit
4. Soldier of Fortune
5. Ask
6. Casual Conquest
7. Vision D'Etat
8. Bronze Cannon
9. Father Time
10. Dancing Forever
We continue in our series of Breeders' Cup top 10's. This week is turf week, the main events for males and females will be in view. The Breeders' Cup Turf is a race that has become increasingly dominated by Europeans. It's not just that Europeans have been winning the race they have been dominant in the last decade. From the year 2000 to the present 30 European trained horses have come for the BC Turf. Seven of them won and seven more hit the frame. A simple $2 win bet on every European in that time period would have made you 38.3% ROI.
If you don't happen to recognize many of the names on my list it's okay, with the exception of Dancing Forever at #10 every horse on the list is European. An American could win the race but I have yet to be really convinced by any stateside competitor this year, that includes Midships. It's always tricky to find the Europeans that will be suited to America and will be willing to come over for the race but I'd rather cast my lot with a horse that could win if they run rather than one that won't win even if they do. Dancing Forever makes the list as the lone American because of his decent 3rd place finish in last years turf and his preference for firm Turf. He was still outclassed last year though and has to improve greatly to win.
My #1 horse for the Turf is Tartan Bearer. He goes for the same connections as Turf winners Pilsudski and Conduit. Given that he's a stablemate of the defending champion there is the chance that connections may choose to keep them apart but I think Tartan Bearer has always been the stable #1. Conduit made a bigger name for himself with a strong second half of the year but Tartan Bearer had already been sidelined by injury. Tartan Bearer was sent out as the main classics hope and finished second in the Epsom Derby and third in the Irish Derby on unsuitable ground while also being bothered in the stretch. Conduit meanwhile was not good enough at that stage to tackle group company. He made his Graded Stakes debut just 9 days before Tartan Bearer's last run of the season. Starting off in 2009 it's once again Tartan Bearer that looks the stronger horse. He won his debut then went down by a half length in the Prince of Wales to Vision D'etat. 10f is a bit short for Tartan Bearer and he'll appreciate the step up in trip. Conduit was nipped in his 2009 debut by a much lower class horse. He is still going to be a force this year but I have him checked in third. Tartan Bearer is a bit of a steady galloper while Conduit seems to have that big move in him. Neither running style is likely to be disadvantaged.
Aiden O'Brien sends a major contender for this race just about every year and given the fact that he had so many Derby horses I'm betting his entry in the Turf will be as strong as ever. I have a pair of his main contenders at #2 and #4. Fame And Glory is the new stable hot pot for the classic distances. He has been beaten only once, a second in the Epsom Derby, and he was staying on very well that day. His jockey couldn't wait for a rematch with the Derby winner in a race that had more pace. Fame And Glory is brilliant, consistent and very likely to improve over the course of the year. He just may seem like a monster by the fall. Soldier of Fortune makes my list as well despite his blow up in last year's Turf. I really do blame the ride that day. Soldier of Fortune was being ridden right up with the pacemaker and then made his move too soon. He was only beaten a nose for third. He has yet to get a start in this year but it seems like he'll have a bit of a stayers campaign. He should be fresh for the second half and if connections choose to send him again he ought to do better. O'Brien also has horses like Frozen Fire, Golden Sword, Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle but I think only the two mentioned above are good enough right now.
I have Ask in the #5 slot which means that all my top 5 horses for the Turf are trained by Sir Micheal Stoute or Aiden O'Brien. Both trainers have won the race several times and have supported it with runners but they also just have very strong stables right now. Ask is a 6yo who has managed only 16 starts. Back in 2007 he looked like a real gem. He capped off that season with a nose defeat in the Canadian International. 2008 was not as kind to him, connections tried him first in very tough G-1 races and then races on soft ground. He was not up to either task but this year they seem to have him back on track. He has already won the Yorkshire Cup (G-2) and the Coronation Cup (G-1). He seems to like firm tracks and he already did well in Canada.
Casual Conquest's form matches up very well with Tartan Bearer's. He finished just behind him in the Epsom Derby and just in front of him in the Irish Derby but he's further down my list because he does seem to go better with some give in the ground. Not that he's bad on firm turf he just seems better on soft turf. Santa Anita is usually hard baked so he's unlikely to get his favored conditions. His trainer Dermot Weld often sends over horses so it'll no surprise to see him in the Turf or even in races like the Arlington Million or Canadian International.
Vision D'Etat is the king of the moment in Europe. He is fresh off a win over Tartan Bearer in the Prince of Wales and that ran his record to 8 wins from 10 starts. He is a three time G-1 winner and being French trained he is likely to have a nice easy summer in order to peak for the fall. I have only two concerns with him. The ground, which has often been on the soft side for his best races and the fact that he is not nominated to the Breeders' Cup. He is the only horse who isn't nominated in this list and Eric Libaud is not a consistent shipper for big American events like Stoute, O'Brien or Fabre. He's a serious horse with a very nice turn of foot but his participation is unfortunately questionable.
Bronze Cannon is an up and comer for John Gosden who won the Classic last year with Raven's Pass. He did not show immediate promise and was more of a handicapper type last season. That translates to allowance form in the US. But after a spring stint in some All-Weather races Bronze Cannon has looked very sharp indeed. He defeated Casual Conquest then came back to win Royal Ascot's main 12f race, the Hardwicke Stakes. He has actually only lost twice on turf in six tries. His ratings are a bit lower than most of the others but he's winning and improving.
The Turf is still a long time away so horses still have time to develop and improve to the point where they could be contenders. Father Time is definitely one of those horses that would have no chance if the race were run today but by November he could be quite a force. Father Time is a full brother to Passage of Time who finished third as the favorite in the 2007 BC Filly & Mare Turf. Henry Cecil trains and has always thought of him as a horse of promise. It took him a few races to figure things out but last week at Royal Ascot he had his breakout race. He destroyed his rivals in the King Edward VII which is unofficially known as Ascot's Derby. The form of this particular race often works out quite well. Conduit and Red Rocks both ran good seconds in this race before capturing the Turf later in the year. Look for Father Time to contest races like the Great Voltigeur and St. Leger Stakes before a possible tilt at the Turf.
1. Tartan Bearer
2. Fame And Glory
3. Conduit
4. Soldier of Fortune
5. Ask
6. Casual Conquest
7. Vision D'Etat
8. Bronze Cannon
9. Father Time
10. Dancing Forever
We continue in our series of Breeders' Cup top 10's. This week is turf week, the main events for males and females will be in view. The Breeders' Cup Turf is a race that has become increasingly dominated by Europeans. It's not just that Europeans have been winning the race they have been dominant in the last decade. From the year 2000 to the present 30 European trained horses have come for the BC Turf. Seven of them won and seven more hit the frame. A simple $2 win bet on every European in that time period would have made you 38.3% ROI.
If you don't happen to recognize many of the names on my list it's okay, with the exception of Dancing Forever at #10 every horse on the list is European. An American could win the race but I have yet to be really convinced by any stateside competitor this year, that includes Midships. It's always tricky to find the Europeans that will be suited to America and will be willing to come over for the race but I'd rather cast my lot with a horse that could win if they run rather than one that won't win even if they do. Dancing Forever makes the list as the lone American because of his decent 3rd place finish in last years turf and his preference for firm Turf. He was still outclassed last year though and has to improve greatly to win.
My #1 horse for the Turf is Tartan Bearer. He goes for the same connections as Turf winners Pilsudski and Conduit. Given that he's a stablemate of the defending champion there is the chance that connections may choose to keep them apart but I think Tartan Bearer has always been the stable #1. Conduit made a bigger name for himself with a strong second half of the year but Tartan Bearer had already been sidelined by injury. Tartan Bearer was sent out as the main classics hope and finished second in the Epsom Derby and third in the Irish Derby on unsuitable ground while also being bothered in the stretch. Conduit meanwhile was not good enough at that stage to tackle group company. He made his Graded Stakes debut just 9 days before Tartan Bearer's last run of the season. Starting off in 2009 it's once again Tartan Bearer that looks the stronger horse. He won his debut then went down by a half length in the Prince of Wales to Vision D'etat. 10f is a bit short for Tartan Bearer and he'll appreciate the step up in trip. Conduit was nipped in his 2009 debut by a much lower class horse. He is still going to be a force this year but I have him checked in third. Tartan Bearer is a bit of a steady galloper while Conduit seems to have that big move in him. Neither running style is likely to be disadvantaged.
Aiden O'Brien sends a major contender for this race just about every year and given the fact that he had so many Derby horses I'm betting his entry in the Turf will be as strong as ever. I have a pair of his main contenders at #2 and #4. Fame And Glory is the new stable hot pot for the classic distances. He has been beaten only once, a second in the Epsom Derby, and he was staying on very well that day. His jockey couldn't wait for a rematch with the Derby winner in a race that had more pace. Fame And Glory is brilliant, consistent and very likely to improve over the course of the year. He just may seem like a monster by the fall. Soldier of Fortune makes my list as well despite his blow up in last year's Turf. I really do blame the ride that day. Soldier of Fortune was being ridden right up with the pacemaker and then made his move too soon. He was only beaten a nose for third. He has yet to get a start in this year but it seems like he'll have a bit of a stayers campaign. He should be fresh for the second half and if connections choose to send him again he ought to do better. O'Brien also has horses like Frozen Fire, Golden Sword, Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle but I think only the two mentioned above are good enough right now.
I have Ask in the #5 slot which means that all my top 5 horses for the Turf are trained by Sir Micheal Stoute or Aiden O'Brien. Both trainers have won the race several times and have supported it with runners but they also just have very strong stables right now. Ask is a 6yo who has managed only 16 starts. Back in 2007 he looked like a real gem. He capped off that season with a nose defeat in the Canadian International. 2008 was not as kind to him, connections tried him first in very tough G-1 races and then races on soft ground. He was not up to either task but this year they seem to have him back on track. He has already won the Yorkshire Cup (G-2) and the Coronation Cup (G-1). He seems to like firm tracks and he already did well in Canada.
Casual Conquest's form matches up very well with Tartan Bearer's. He finished just behind him in the Epsom Derby and just in front of him in the Irish Derby but he's further down my list because he does seem to go better with some give in the ground. Not that he's bad on firm turf he just seems better on soft turf. Santa Anita is usually hard baked so he's unlikely to get his favored conditions. His trainer Dermot Weld often sends over horses so it'll no surprise to see him in the Turf or even in races like the Arlington Million or Canadian International.
Vision D'Etat is the king of the moment in Europe. He is fresh off a win over Tartan Bearer in the Prince of Wales and that ran his record to 8 wins from 10 starts. He is a three time G-1 winner and being French trained he is likely to have a nice easy summer in order to peak for the fall. I have only two concerns with him. The ground, which has often been on the soft side for his best races and the fact that he is not nominated to the Breeders' Cup. He is the only horse who isn't nominated in this list and Eric Libaud is not a consistent shipper for big American events like Stoute, O'Brien or Fabre. He's a serious horse with a very nice turn of foot but his participation is unfortunately questionable.
Bronze Cannon is an up and comer for John Gosden who won the Classic last year with Raven's Pass. He did not show immediate promise and was more of a handicapper type last season. That translates to allowance form in the US. But after a spring stint in some All-Weather races Bronze Cannon has looked very sharp indeed. He defeated Casual Conquest then came back to win Royal Ascot's main 12f race, the Hardwicke Stakes. He has actually only lost twice on turf in six tries. His ratings are a bit lower than most of the others but he's winning and improving.
The Turf is still a long time away so horses still have time to develop and improve to the point where they could be contenders. Father Time is definitely one of those horses that would have no chance if the race were run today but by November he could be quite a force. Father Time is a full brother to Passage of Time who finished third as the favorite in the 2007 BC Filly & Mare Turf. Henry Cecil trains and has always thought of him as a horse of promise. It took him a few races to figure things out but last week at Royal Ascot he had his breakout race. He destroyed his rivals in the King Edward VII which is unofficially known as Ascot's Derby. The form of this particular race often works out quite well. Conduit and Red Rocks both ran good seconds in this race before capturing the Turf later in the year. Look for Father Time to contest races like the Great Voltigeur and St. Leger Stakes before a possible tilt at the Turf.
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