Street Non-Sense

"i was wondering what KC thought about nafzger's 2 preps for street sense and i did see KC's comments today at drf//i hadn't seen much discussion about it in print before today// it seemed that matz had more critisism on the the way he brought barbaro to the derby last year than the way nafzger is bringing his horse to the kentucky derby// i wonder what's with street sense// nafzger says he is more muscular and and had gained weight but was not bigger//he said street sense was not happy i assume around chrismas time/ nafzger said he would be satisfied with hitting the board on a grade II, 7 1/2 furlong race//something just doesn't seem right with all this//"

chicago gerry

I collect a good many things, I have a bunch of old coins as well as more soccer jerseys than I could wear in 2 weeks, but perhaps my most extensive collection is of Derby statistics. If there is a stat about the Derby most likely I have it recorded in my spreadsheet. I am a big believer in historical trends, those trends can provide us with profiles that can be used in the future. I do something similar with the Breeders Cup but that study is more in its infancy. I am not talking about stats that include jinxes or oddities that just happen to work. All the stats I keep and use in my profiling specifically have to do with speed, stamina, experience and current form.

Anyway I said all that to say that I dislike the current plan being set out for Street Sense. Originally the trainer indicated that his first start of the year would come in the Fountain Of Youth or in the Louisiana Derby followed by the Bluegrass. While I am not a huge believer in the idea of two prep races I do not exclude horses just based on the fact that they had two preps. But with two preps there is little margin for error and things pretty much have to be perfect. You'll notice that in my current Derby Top 10 I have Street Sense at #4, another horse who is planning to have two preps, Great Hunter is right above him in #3. However these rankings do not reflect my opinion of the latest news on Street Sense. Next week he will be moved sharply downward because I believe his preparation will leave him flat.

Lets look over some of the numbers, all this data includes Derby's run from 1996 to 2006.

Derby entrants with two prep races: 23-0-4-1
Derby entrants with two prep races, both of them wins: 5-0-1-1
Derby entrants with two prep races, finished in the money in both: 11-0-3-1
Derby entrants with two prep races, did not finish in the money in both: 12-0-1-0
Derby entrants with less than two preps around two turns: 16-0-0-0

The overall record of horses with two preps is actually decent. They have not won for a while but they have finished in the frame at about their statistical expectancy. But if you look inside the numbers you'll find that the majority of horses who excel with just two preps also excel in those prep races. Meaning they do not run off the board in either of their preps. So I think a horse can do well in the Derby off of two preps but there is little margin for error. I think the most hurtful thing to Street Sense will be his lack of two races around two turns. The statistic above includes horses with just one prep race, but even if you exclude them you still have 11 horses who have tried this route and none of them have hit the board. Among this group are Favorite Trick, Bellamy Road, Showing Up and Saarland. Not world beaters but horses who certainly were capable of running in the top 3 on their best day. However their preparation left them short.

All the fuss over Barbaro's Derby preparation was overblown, I personally do not concern myself with the layoff. I wouldn't like much more than 5 weeks but with the current trends in racing that too will likely happen eventually. The biggest things for me is what kind of preps the horse has had and what he did in those preps. I really do not understand the trainers rationale. Here he has a horse who is certainly capable of winning the Derby and he is choosing to prepare him in a way that is statistically inferior. I know training is horse specific but I do wonder if the horse has other issues that have caused this deviation. I think Street Sense will be a short horse in the Derby if his trainer sticks to his current plan of having just one two turn preparation.