They say the best opportunities come from finding well backed horses who seem likely to regress. So what do "bet against" horses look like? Here are a few that I typically tend to stay away from.
Inconsistent stakes horses returning from long layoffs in allowance company - I suppose the poster boy for this would be Jazil. Sure he won the Belmont but this horse was not a winner when he went to the shelf. Why did people think he was an automatic against any level when he came back?
High figure maidens coming back off a layoff - We just saw it with Soaring By, Horses who shoot the lights out in their debut can be pretty vulnerable next time out.
Older horses who have recorded 3 consecutive higher Beyer figs - That is in their last 3 races their figures have improved. Statistically these horses regress 71% of the time. Be careful though. Often their Beyer figure will regress but they will still win.
Horses running second time off a long layoff if their first race was a tough one and they're coming back on short rest - When a horse does well in their comeback effort sometimes connections get ambitious and run them back too quickly in a tough spot.
A rather surprising bet against that I found was horses who won their first G-1 of the year in their last start - You would think that horse who have reached the pinnacle would be at least solid next time out, but often loses at short odds in weaker company have come about. In fact the cumulative record of G-1 winners after winning their first G-1 of the season is 55 for 243. A measly 22.63%. That is a very poor record for horses who are most often the favorites. Many good horses including Medaglia D'Oro, Congaree and Minshaft fell under these circumstances.
2yo's 26-4-4-4 (-$33.20 -63.8% ROI)
There are many more types of horses you are better of opposing. If you can think of more please share!
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interesting list and informative/ it's attention to these kinds of situations that separate good handicappers from the rest/ i need to do more of it/ i really think 'horses to oppose' can be better than trying to pick a winner at times because you are protecting your bankroll by not wasting it on situational poor prospects who generally go off at low odds/ i call these types of horses 'money pit' horses after the tom hanks movie where you end up pouring your money down the drain/ i can't really think of other 'horses to oppose' situations right off hand other than what you would normally think of as horses likely to bounce, jockey changes, and things like that/ my guess is i do some of it subconsciously but it is interesting to see it spelled out and some of these situations i haven't thought about //what drives me crazy are the inconsistent stakes horses set out by KC//seems like you never quite get a handle on what they are going to do//meanwhile they are burning up your bankroll/ one situation i do like in which other handicappers tend not to like is a hard fought dual in the stretch where the comment line indicates the horse fell back a bit and made another run at it/ even though they may have missed by a nose, and even though it was a battle down the stretch, i will play these kind of horses right back/ chicago gerry
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