Two Turn Experience and Efficiency

"Personally, I think that Forefathers may be the most intriguing possibility from the past couple weeks' sprint preps. Let us know what you think of him."

Joseph

This query is the perfect segue way into a Derby stat for this week. Overall I like Forefathers, I noted him in my Derby Future Book Analysis. Here is what I said then:

Forefathers - Another horse I would only play above 50/1. He likely only made the list because they felt obliged to have a Zito horse in there and he looked like the best candidate. I don't know how far he wants to go, he seemed to have problems changing leads in his last and consequently his stride looked short and choppy. But it's possible that this horse could handle more distance. I though Adore the Gold was a much better horse than he was and he gave him all he could handle.

Forefathers ended up at 44/1 in the Pool so I did not recommend a wager on him but to expound further, I like the ability he has shown so far but I do have a few cautions with respect to his ability to stretch out. As of right now he has never gone around two turns, from a statistical standpoint he is going to have to get going on that by his next start. Horses who had not competed around two turns by the beginning of March in their 3yo season compiled a record of 27-1-2-1 since 1996. Silver Charm is the most notable member of that group. Obviously this is not one of those hard and fast statistics that should cause you to drop the horse immediately. Its merely a caution that he needs to try two turns as soon as possible. 7 horses have tried the Derby after not having gone around two turns before April and only Proud Citizen hit the frame (7-0-1-0). Proud Citizen was even a unique case because he still got in two preps around two turns.

Another slight caution I have is that Forefathers has already proven himself to be pretty fast around one turn. That isn't a bad thing on its own, just as long as he proves himself to be faster around two turns. More than a few horses have entered the Derby when their numbers indicate that they are really better around one turn. In most cases their Derby effort reinforces that suggestion. Horses who have achieved their highest career Beyer Speed Figure around one turn have a cumulative Derby record of 16-0-1-0. Again Proud Citizen is the only horse to have run well despite this factor.