Todd Squad Unraveled

It seems to me that one could go a long way into getting an accurate picture of the Kentucky Derby if they can simply sort out Todd Pletcher's runners. Even with Ravel's injury today Pletcher could have nearly half the field if he wanted to. He currently has Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Scat Daddy, Sam P, King Of The Roxy, Rags To Riches, Cowtown Cat and Deadly Dealer.

I was wondering if there was anything we could gain in terms of deciphering stable intent or merely identifying the types of horses he has done well with in the past by looking at his past runners. Because one thing is clear, Todd Pletcher may not have won a Derby yet but he has sent many horses who have run very well.

Here is a complete record of his Derby runners, their odds and placement in the Derby and their last 3 starts.

2000
Impeachment 6/1(e) - 3rd (Ark Derby, TB Derby, Sam Davis)
More Than Ready 11/1 - 4th (Blue Grass, LA Derby, Hutcheson)
Trippi 6/1 (e) - 11th (Flamingo, Swale, Alw)
Greame Hall 46/1 - 19th (Ark Derby, Rushaway, Alw)
2001
Invisible Ink 55/1 - 2nd (Blue Grass, FL Derby, Alw)
Balto Star 8/1 - 14th (Ark Derby, Spiral (Lane's End), Alw)
2002
Wild Horses 58/1 - 18th (Ark Derby, Rushaway, Mdn)
2004
Limehouse 41/1 - 4th (Blue Grass, TB Derby, Hutcheson)
Pollards Vision 24/1 - 17th (Ill Derby, LA Derby, Alw)
2005
Flower Alley 41/1 - 9th (Ark Derby, Lane's End, Mdn)
Coin Silver 38/1 - 12th (Lexington, Alw, Mdn)
Bandini 6/1 - 19th (Blue Grass, Fountain of Youth, Alw)
2006
Bluegrass Cat 30/1 - 2nd (Blue Grass, TB Derby, Sam Davis)
Keyed Entry 28/1 - 20th (Wood Mem, Gotham, Hutcheson)

Overall Derby record 14-0-2-1

A few observations based on this data.

#1 - The gamblers on Derby day don't know how to interpret the form of his horses. In nearly every case his longer shots have outperformed his well backed horses. Impeachment was part of an entry with Trippi and High Yield and he definitely would have been around 40/1 had he not been coupled.

#2 - His best Derby horses are not late discoveries. Of the 14 horses he's entered 9 of them were not developed enough to have run in 3 stakes races as a 3yo. Of the 5 horses that were far enough along to be put into stakes company 3 starts before the Derby only Keyed Entry missed the superfecta on Derby day.

#3 - The horses who have done the best for him on Derby day have run their last 3 races around two turns. 8 of his 14 horses were campaigned that way and not one horse who had any different type of preparation ran in the frame.

#4 - Don't look for his horses that are the most successful in prep races. The cumulative record of his Derby entrants in stakes prep races is 32-14-10-5 but amazingly the cumulative record of his horses that hit the frame in the Derby was 8-1-3-1. A severe under performance relative to the rest of his charges. In fact of all his 4 horses to hit the Derby super only Limehouse even won a race past March 1st. Conversely his horses who won their last prep are a bad 0 for 6 in the Derby. Trippi was the best placed of that lot in 11th.

Anyone who handicaps the Derby will have to decide what to do with the Pletcher entries. This might help shed some light and hopefully it will lead you to the right horses. He may not have won the Derby yet but he has sent some live horses postward at good prices.