The Last Furlong - A Given?

Kennedy's Corridor has long been a big supporter of Any Given Saturday. He was the number one ranked Derby horse for 11 weeks in a row. However his performance in the Wood Memorial saw him drop down to his lowest ever ranking of 3rd. Some may feel he should have been dropped off the list while others might think. If you loved him so much for that long why not just have a little faith and stick with him until the Derby. I was tempted to stick with him but one key statistic swayed my thinking.

The most negative thing about the Wood Memorial was not the final time or his Beyer regression, although those weren't positives. The worst aspect of his performance was that he got passed in the final 1/8th of a mile. He didn't just get passed because someone was really flying. He got passed because he gave up the ghost. He quit in the final furlong.

Now there could be some rational explanations for that. He wasn't originally being pointed for the Wood, his workout schedule suggested that he was no where near ready. All he had between the TB Derby and the Wood was one very slow workout. Conversely Street Sense has now turned in 3 works and two of them were very quick. I think Todd was trying to back him off, but also figured he could get another work into him before the Bluegrass. Plans changed and his horse wasn't ready. Another explanation is that he is being ridden poorly. In his first few races he was well off the pace and came with one run. Since coming into the limelight he has been ridden right on the pace and I think it makes him less effective. So there are a few mitigating factors however you cant just ignore the way he folded in the final furlong.

Statistics suggest that getting passed in the final furlong of either of their final two preps is a real negative factor for Derby hopefuls.

Horses who were passed in the final furlong in either of their last two preps: 50-1-3-3
Horses who were not passed in the final furlong in either of their last two preps: 144-10-8-8

Now the data cannot tell the whole story. For instance Silver Charm was technically passed in the final furlong of the SA Derby, but he got beaten by a scant nose after setting suicidal fractions in order to burn out Sharp Cat. He wasn't exactly hitting the wall. But at the same time eight horses from last years Derby were carrying this negative factor and only Steppenwolfer and Deputy Glitters even managed to finish in the top half of the field. In most cases the horses who fade like that (especially in their final prep) are not Derby quality horses. They simply don't have the stamina. Steppenwolfer of course finished third but he, like Silver Charm did not exactly fit the mold.

Whether or not Any Given Saturday fits the profile that this statistic is meant to isolate or is good enough to overcome his bad day remains to be seen. It is certainly the biggest question mark surrounding his Derby attempt.