Wednesday, August 08, 2007

3yo Crop

I gave a nod to the strong 3yo crop in my Tip O' The Cap section in the Weekend Review but I thought it was worth taking a closer look. Here is how I would rank them based on talent, then at the bottom is a list of how the TCR ranks them.

1. Street Sense
2. Curlin
3. Any Given Saturday
4. Rags To Riches
5. Hard Spun
6. Tiago
7. Red Giant
8. Nobiz Like Shobiz
9. Dream Rush
10. Octave

I'm not particularly married to the specific order of this ranking. I do think Street Sense belongs on top and after that I think Rags, AGS and Curlin are on even par. Although I think on any given day any one of the 4 could beat the other 3. Street Sense may not have to face any of the other top 3yo's aside from Tiago in the Travers and a win in the Travers will only help to solidify his place at the top. I do not think he is unbeatable though it all depends on conditions and circumstances. Unfortunately Rags will only have 2 more races this year and none of the will be against the boys. I'm not going to get swept away by AGS mania, I like the horse, everyone knows I like the horse. I think he could be the best of the crop but for now he is not as accomplished as the TC race winners and I'm not fully convinced he could beat them at their best at 10f. Beyond that I see Hard Spun and Tiago as equals and I don't think either of them are notably better than Nobiz Like Showbiz. I like Red Giant and I think he may just put himself right up into the top 5 by years end. I think he is definitely the top 3yo colt who does not compete in the dirt route section. The 3yo sprinters have not impressed me all that much. Black Seventeen is good but he did not beat Teuflesberg by that much and that horse is no world beater. I'm waiting to see his King's Bishop before really getting behind him. He's likely the best sprinter out there but the 3yo sprinters are very weak this year. Dream Rush gets included because she is a win machine and is already better than her elders in the Female sprint division. If she improves over the late summer and fall she may just be the best 3yo sprinter period. Octave is just solid and she gets on my list because I'm waiting to see Black Seventeen and First Defence again.

The TCR is a ranking based only on accomplishments, this is how it grades the crop so far.

TCR As of Aug 8th
1. Rags to Riches - 239.80
2. Curlin - 230.20
3. Street Sense - 223.08
4. Hard Spun - 141.58
5. Nobiz Like Showbiz - 130.78
6. Any given Saturday - 130.02
7. Octave - 126.008. Tiago - 120.08
9. Dream Rush - 118.30
10. Scat Daddy - 101.12

In terms of this ranking any gap that is less than 20 points is negligible. For instance the Travers will be worth 63pts to the winner. So the top 3 are fairly even and the next 6 are all pretty even with each other as well.

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