Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Horses to Oppose

This is probably detrimental to objective handicapping but I like to sift through the final preps and identify high profile horses that I would not use in the Breeders Cup. Either because of the way they ran in the prep or because the prep does not change the fact that they aren't suited to the BC race.

Juvenile Fillies
Indian Blessing - Without even seeing the rest of the field I'm pretty sure that if she's a winner on BC day I'll be a loser. I thought the way she finished the Frizette was terrible. Another turn and an extra 1/16th won't be good news for her. Add in the fact that she's quite inexperienced and is a bit speed crazy as well and you've got a solid bet against prospect.

Tale Of Ekati - He is one of the more talented horses going to the BC Juvenile and I do fear tossing him. However I very much dislike the way he's being brought into the race. The long layoff off a 7f race is not a great choice when the Juvenile is being run around two turns. I could dump Kodiak Kowboy for the same reason but he's a bit more of an obvious toss.

After Market - The Mile is a race for specialists and After Market, although talented, is no specialist. He is not nearly as effective at 8f as he is beyond that distance. I think he's simply poor value because his big reputation will encourage some support at the windows.

Midnight Lute - He will come into the Sprint with the biggest Beyer Speed Figure last time out and a fearsome reputation. But like the Mile the Sprint is a race that is usually won by horses who excel at the specific distance. Midnight Lute has not run at 6f since the second race of his career. Baffert himself has already said that he doesn't know if 6f will be his game. The Cigar Mile is already penciled in as his season ending target and I wonder if this more just taking a shot. I'm also not in love with the fact that his huge figure virtually stands in isolation.

FM Turf
Lahudood - Personally I didn't like her Flower Bowl all that much. I thought her success had more to do with the main contenders failing to fire. I think she's a pretty safe horse to drop.

Ginger Punch - I'd love it if she went off as the favorite in this race. Given the upsets we've had recently she might just be the horse who gets the most attention. I think that she wants no part of two turns against high class opposition. Indian Vale repelled her soundly in the Beldame after she made a bold bid for the lead. It's hard to see her getting past Indian Vale, Hystericalady and Lady Joanne and still having enough to hold off Lear's Princess, Octave and Unbridled Belle. My bet is that she does not even get past the first group.

Better Talk Now - I don't want to slag the old champ, he's a fine horse but the field is coming up light and as of now I can only name 4 likely starters in this race. Of the 4 he's the one I feel most comfortable about tossing. Monmouth has never really been his cup of tea and I think the injuries and halted campaign he's had this year will make it tough for him to run as well as he has in the past.

Hard Spun - Hard Spun is a tricky sort because there is no question that this horse is not a quitter. Even if he gets passed he still stays on. He is a good horse to use underneath but I really can't see him beating this group. He simply isn't as good as Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and even Any Given Saturday. Most likely not all of those horses will beat him but at least one of them will.

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