Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - January 29th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)

Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don't think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don't think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he's been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he's faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don't even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I'm not the biggest fan of Nick Zito's handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won't necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he'll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they're not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don't trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It's kind of ironic that I've had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it's much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.

On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank

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