Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - February 20th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Court Vision (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Crown Of Thorns (6)
7. Into Mischief (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Monba (9)
10. Denis of Cork (new)

The radar list continues to dwindle as more and more horses prove themselves to be less than Derby winning quality. I do not want to get too harsh on the quality of the horses seen in the Sam Davis but it will suffice to say that not one of them remains even on my radar. I do not think highly of any horse that ran in the race including the winner. Although Fierce Wind is undefeated around two turns I think he only won this race because the rest of his competition ran much worse than he did. The Delta Jackpot form looks pretty bad now with Cave's Valley, Z Humor and Turf War all coming back very poorly. Wise Answer looks as though he is just another Calder flash. He had no response once the real running started. The horse to get excited about this weekend was Denis of Cork. His win the in Southwest was just the sort of progressive effort I like to see. This was not a breathtaking performance. He did not come home all that fast, it's just that his competition was basically stopping. But there were some nice positives about it. First of all I like the way he settled closer to the pace early on. Until the leaders ran away at a ridiculous pace he looked set to have a nice stalking trip. It is good to see his connections trying to distance themselves from being a one run closer. I liked the way he assumed command with very little urging. He did not close very fast but he was well within himself. I also like that he received a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure. It's a good solid figure for this time of year but of course further improvement will be necessary. J Be K won as easily as he liked at the Fair Grounds but he does not really move up the radar for that performance. That race only restated what we already knew. He is a very fast horse. What we need to know about him is how far he'll go. He stays on the radar until we get more direction but the feeling is that he'll be a miler at most. Tale Of Ekati drops off the Top 10 list to the head of the radar list just because of his inactivity, unsatisfactory workouts and the performances of others. Cowboy Cal suffered a reverse on the grass but that race still suggests little about his Derby future. The Bluegrass is next for him and he will likely go into the Derby as a total wildcard, but a talented wildcard nonetheless.

On the radar: Tale Of Ekati (10), Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib, Cowboy Cal

Dropped: Riley Tucker, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Golden Yank

1 comment:

peeptoad said...

My current top 10:
1. War Pass
2. Pyro
3. Z Fortune
4. Crown of Thorns
5. Colonel John
6. Into Mischief
7. El Gato Malo
8. Court Vision
9. Monba
10. Denis of Cork

My short "watch list" includes Tale of Ekati (I agree-drop due to inactivity), Alaazo, Atoned,and Elysium Fields. This should be an exciting weekend as we'll likely see Court Vision and Monba square off with the promising Elysium Fields in the FOY. The following weekend will probably be Crown of Thorns, Col. John (not sure if the Bad Cat is going there or the San Felipe w/Into Mischief), in the Sham, so things should start taking definite shape very soon.
-peep