Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - March 25th

1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Elysium Fields (5)
6. Georgie Boy (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Court Vision (9)
9. War Pass (10)
10. Eight Belles (new)

Not many changes this week aside from the enforced dropping of Sierra Sunset. He looked like a decent prospect but injury unfortunately eliminated him from Derby consideration. Thankfully we've had very few injuries this year, just Sierra Sunset, Crown Of Thorns and Into Mischief among the major contenders. Eight Belles makes her debut in the top 10 and the way her connections are looking she might even test the boys before the derby. Her Beyer Speed Figures are right in line if not a bit superior to the colts numbers and visually there are very few holes you can see in her. She is nice sized filly with very good tactical speed and a nice turn of foot. She seems to do everything easily and has become a real monster as a 3yo among her peers. The biggest change in her was probably maturity but it is worth noting she she has always done better when stalking the pace closely. they've taken her back a bit further in 3 of her lifetime starts and she did not fare as well in any of them. Given the fact that most contenders are late runners this year, good tactical speed is a handy weapon. She still has much to prove though and the Arkansas Derby might be a good idea, just so they get a little taste of what they're up against. The stakes races run at Turfway this past weekend will have little to no impact on the Derby. Some of the entrants like Halo Najib might end up in the Derby gate but they won't impact the race. Adriano is an impressive horse visually but dirt remains a significant question mark as does his temperament on big race days. I'm really looking forward to the Florida Derby. I think some nice contenders will emerge from that race. Big Brown is being tipped by many for super stardom. I still do not have him in the top 10 because of his lack of experience. Talent can trump experience but I want to see his talent on display against some worthy adversaries before I proclaim him this years version of Curlin. Tomcito would seem to have a similar chance of proclaiming himself to be something special but we have to wait and see with him. Elysium Fields may actually get overlooked just a bit but for us he is the most solid Derby contender in the Florida Derby. I'd love to see him take the next step forward and really show that he's up to taking on Pyro and Denis Of Cork.

On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck

Dropped: Sierra Sunset (6)


Chris said...

Excellent Top 10. I, too, am waiting until after the Florida Derby to evaluate Big Brown's potential as a Derby starter.

peeptoad said...

2.Colonel John
3.Denis of Cork
4.Georgie Boy
5.El Gato Malo
6.War Pass
7.Elysium Fields
8.Cool Coal Man
9.Court Vision

radar: Eight Belles, Big Brown, Face the Cat, Tomcito

dropped: Sierra Sunset

Not too much change in my list, except that Sierra Sunset is dropped and Visionaire gains the 10th spot by default. The FL Derby will likely shake things up a bit, esp. if unknown commodities like Big Brown, Tomcito, and Face the Cat step up. This prep should be one of the most interesting yet, ad I'm looking for a strong performance by one of the rader horses or Elysium Fields, as this will be the final prep for many (if not all) of these...