Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Angling For A Derby Winner

Looking for a way to impress your friends at a derby party? Or maybe you need a few winning angles to share with your friends.

Here are some simple and somewhat mindless ways to bet the Derby and stand a good chance of being profitable.

Bet every horse with a Dosage above 4.00 - Tradition and the Dosage creators say that only horses with a 4.00 or less can win but since 1996 you would have made great money by betting on the 23 non qualifiers. There were 3 winners in that group and your ROI would be a whopping 328.57%. This year that means backing horses like War Pass, Bob Black Jack, Gayego and Recapturetheglory.

Bet every horse who ran a 100+ Beyer as a Two Year Old - 27 qualifiers in the last 12 runnings and 5 winners including a bunch of recent ones like Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Street Sense. You would have made 52.96% by betting on all of them. War Pass and Pyro are the only ones this year who look likely to be in the Derby.

Bet every horse that has worked two bullets since their last prep race - Make sure that one of those bullets is their final Derby workout. Horses often signal top form with some fast moves in the morning. 13 horses horses qualified and 4 of them turned out to be winners. A massive 444.61% ROI would have been yours.

Bet on every horse trained by a Derby rookie trainer - Who says a conditioner needs experience to train a Derby winner? 4 of the last 5 winners have been trained by a conditioner who is bringing their first starter to the derby. A bet on all 32 of those rookie trained qualifiers in the last 5 years would have made you 141.56%. Also worth noting that along with the winners horses like Hard Spun, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Steppenwolfer and Imperialism were all trained by Derby rookies as well. This could mean horses like Smooth Air, Gayego, Adriano and Tomcito for this year.

If Trifecta's are your thing and you have a big budget try boxing every horse who has achieved the average two turn stakes prep winning Beyer figure - It may sound complicated but it's really not. Just glance through the PP's and note the speed figures that each horse earned in a winning two turn stakes race in the current year. Average them, then eliminate the horses who did earn a figure around two turns that is as fast as the average. Box the rest of them in a trifecta. It may cost a fair bit but here are the year by year results over the last decade or so.

Year - Wagered (Returned)
1996 - $1,008 ($600.60)
1997 - $672 ($205.40)
1998 - $240 (---)
1999 - $3,432 ($5,866.20)
2000 - $1,440 ($435)
2001 - $1,008 (---)
2002 - $240 (---)
2003 - $420 ($664.80)
2004 - $1,008 ($987.60)
2005 - $2,640 ($133,134.80)
2006 - $1,980 (---)
2007 - $3,432 ($440)

You would have only made money in 3 of the 12 years but you would have cashed a ticket in 8 of those years. You also would have been a hero for 2005. Overall the system is not a high probability one but it does show a 712% return on investment. That's $124,814.40 in real dollars. It's a pretty expensive lottery ticket but it does show a high percentage hit rate. All you need to pray for is a bomb or two in the frame.

1 comment:

Lisa said...

I like your blog, but I just wanted to correct on one fact--
Adriano is not trained by a rookie Derby trainer. Graham Motion saddled Chilito for the 1998 Kentucky Derby. He finished 11th.