Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - April 1st

1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Big Brown (new)
6. Smooth Air (new)
7. El Gato Malo (7)
8. Court Vision (8)
9. War Pass (9)
10. Eight Belles (10)

It is now the beginning of April. For fans of the Derby Trail April is the most exciting month. May is when it all culminates but April is when the fever reaches it's zenith, very often the anticipation of an event is a greater source of joy and excitement than the actual event. For many people that will be true of the Derby, depending on who wins. Everyone wants to see a "champion" win the race. It's a bit of a self fulfilling prophesy because the Derby winner is automatically given exalted status but fans truly want to see greatness portrayed in what is still considered by some to be the greatest race in the world. That is why we have all sat on the edge of our seats this spring waiting to be wowed and amazed. We're waiting for something to believe in. For many people the Florida Derby was the coming of the Messiah. At long last we had a horse run a triple digit Beyer speed figure in a prep race. What's more he did it in his third lifetime start from a post position that seemed to be the kiss of death. Big Brown has become the sole or joint favorite with Pyro almost overnight. There is no question that he ran the best race by any three year old to date. But now we have to deal with the question of how he'll do in the Derby. As you can see by my top 10 list above Big Brown is ranked only 5th. does that mean I was not impressed by his Florida Derby? No, I was very impressed but it does mean that I have a few doubts about him repeating the feat in 5 weeks. The 3 career starts is not a big issue for me, I think he has the experience he needs from the races he's run. He has already shown the requisite speed and class. His form is beyond repute and there are no holes to pick in his breeding. The two questions I have about him have to do with his fitness and his suitability to the specific challenges of the Derby. On the subject of his fitness it is no secret that this horse has been, and to some extent still is, battling some foot issues. You cannot afford to lose time for the next 5 weeks no matter how good you are. Empire Maker fans learned that lesson. The other issue related to his fitness that I have is in regards to his light prep schedule. He has just had one prep around two turns and I honestly feel that will be a significant factor. He does not have a solid base of stamina from the body of work he has put in. The other issue I have with him is his suitability based on his running style. A horse can wire the Derby but if War Pass enters the race it will become much harder. Can Big Brown win the Derby despite these disadvantages? Most definitely yes, but they do cause me to be more cautious and I'm giving a few others above him the benefit of the doubt until they run their last prep race. The top 5 horses on this list are really the only ones that I still give a winning chance to. The bottom 5 and the radar are more the horses with an outside chance to win but more realistically they have a chance to hit the board. The best of them at this stage is Smooth Air. He is emerging as a very solid and classy horse. Not really brilliant enough to win on paper but very often the Derby has gone to a horse who did not seem brilliant before hand. I love the way he has been handled and trained and although he is not really bred for 10f I think that in 5 weeks he will run the best race of his life. Stutts has done a fabulous job of building stamina into him and this horse always tries 100%. Big Brown is a much better horse but I consider Smooth Air more likely to run his best race on Derby Day than Big Brown, the only problem is that we know Big Browns best race is good enough to win while Smooth Air's best race may just be for second. My Pal Charlie was also added to the radar on the back of his excellent works in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. He looks like he's getting good at the right time and he's worth keeping a close eye on. Elysium Fields and Tomcito were both dropped because of their performances in the Florida Derby. Tomcito simply was no where near good enough and Elysium Fields nearly got heatstroke. He might be a very good one later on but that does it for him and the Derby. Poor Georgie Boy has been dropped with the news of an injury that will keep him out of the Derby. I feel badly for the connections, he is a cool horse and the Derby would have been better with him in the race. These next two weeks will all but decide how the pre-Derby pundits summarize and rank the contenders. The last prep for any horse is, in my opinion, by far the most important race. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, it should be fun watching it all unfold.

On the radar: Visionaire, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie

Dropped: Elysium Fields (5), Georgie Boy (6), Tomcito