Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - April 22nd

1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (2)
3. Smooth Air (3)
4. Eight Belles (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Court Vision (7)
7. Pyro (9)
8. Monba (10)
9. Cowboy Cal (new)
10. Bob Black Jack (new)

This will be my final Derby Top 10 for this year and what a year it's been. There has been uncertainty for much of the spring and that won't be cleared up until the horses cross the line in the Derby. It might be as simple as Big Brown being better than everyone else. His trainer certainly thinks he is and now with War Pass and Massive Drama out of the race the pace edge may fall to him. Or perhaps it is as simple as rooting for the most well rounded Derby contender, which is certainly Colonel John. He has the look of a Derby winner, physically, mentally and his running style. It's too bad the surface question is still looming. I think the surface is also to blame for his low speed figures. Outside the top two I think it is anyone's race. I can certainly envision a scenario where both Colonel John and Big Brown are defeated although I believe that at least one of them if not both will be in the frame. Smooth Air is the first on the list of logical alternatives. He is not a brilliant horse but I adore the way he is training. Forget what breeding he may or may not have. He is virtually the only horse in the race who is having significant stamina built into him. Some horses will rely on their pedigree to get the extra ground. Smooth Air will be relying on the fitness he's recieved from his workouts. Eight Belles is a bit of a mystery horse but I have to rank her this high because of what she may be capable of. If the form she has showed against fillies translates in the Derby she will be a very tough horse to beat and might even be key to defeating Big Brown. The longer he stays on the lead the more courageous he'll get. Eight Belles has the speed to attack him earlier than most. Z Fortune is a horse I thought the world of early in the year but cooled on after he flopped in the Rebel. His Arkansas Derby won me back to his side though and I expect a huge run from him. I think he's a horse I'll use all over my tickets. Court Vision may be a slow plodder who even failed to make up significant ground on the Wood horses who were crawling home but he does have a touch of class about him and I fear any horse who really wakes up in their works, especially after arriving at Churchill. He's better as a play underneath but he does have a great chance of at least hitting the superfecta. Pyro is a total question mark. I won't use him on top and I may not use him at all but you have to respect what he was able to do on the dirt. I don't like the fact that he didn't get much from his last prep but I do think that a return to his best beats at least half this field. Monba is another horse I'd use underneath if the price was right. I suspect he prefers Polytrack despite a prior win over the surface. Cowboy Cal has been added to the Derby Top 10 after spending the year on the radar list. I'm not convinced he's a dirt horse but I do fear the "other Pletcher" angle with him. In fact if Big Brown is to win the Derby I suspect Cowboy Cal will be in the frame. Big Brown has his best chance of winning if the pace is moderate and Cowboy Cal is the kind of horse who would just love to clip off a steady pace. He'll keep trying all the way to the line. While I think he isn't quite good enough to win he is a real exacta threat if things go his way. Bob Black Jack is the final horse in my top 10. There are few things to dislike about him, most notably the fact that in both of his route races he got passed in the lane. I'm also not hyped over the fact that his best lifetime performance to date came in a 6f race. But you have to acknowledge that Californians have been doing exceptionally well when travelling out of state. I like that he rated well in his last race and was able to finish rather quickly. He doesn't need to love the distance to hit the frame and I think he is the kind of horse who will either run way above expectations or run near last. I prefer him to Gayego among the Californians. I think Gayego has run his best race. If you'd like to read the entire Top 10 from this year you can do that by clicking here.

Dropped: Atoned (6), Tomcito (8)