Tuesday, August 05, 2008

BC Future Look - FM Turf

Wait A While - She is not the filly she was but on the right day she is still the most brilliant of this group and there is good reason to believe that she could have her best day at Santa Anita on rock hard turf. She has run at Santa Anita twice and both efforts produced brilliant victories with Beyers of 109 and 105.

Pure Clan - I have high hopes for this three year old filly. She is not yet at the level where she could compete with the best of this group but her speed figures will likely improve dramatically once she starts facing better horses. She's got a good turn of foot and a good winning attitude. She has also never lost in 4 tries on the grass. She is not unlike Wait A While as a 3yo in that she seems quite effective on the dirt as well but the Turf is where her real future lies. All she needs is that one big performance to show that she can handle older mares.

Darjina - She's been blighted with seconditis and is by no means certain to participate but I do think she is well suited to this spot. The best cure for a consistent loser is a class drop and although this is a championship event it would be a class drop for her. She is not a classic type filly like Ouija Board or Islington, much more of a miler type like a Banks Hill but she is every bit as capable as each one of that trio. She would be the race favorite if she came.

Mauralakana - The best of an average lot so far. A winner of 4 of 5 starts this year Mauralakana has been the model of consistency and she is the horse they'll all have to deal with. The trouble with her is that she is solid but unspectacular. While she is the most consistent performer in the division her best races don't match up with those of the more brilliant names on this list. I think she might also prefer 11f as opposed to the 10f this race will be this year.

Lady Of Venice - I had all but pigeon-holed her as a miler by the close of last season. But a year older and in a new barn she no longer seems to have the speed to get it done at a mile. I still think 10f is stretching it a bit but the 10f FM turf events often go to fillies who look more like milers rather than the real classic types. Her lone effort at the distance was not poor by any means. Look for connections to stretch her out in the Beverly D followed by either the Yellow Ribbon. She may not win those races but if she runs well she will be very dangerous in the BC. I actually liked her Cash Call Mile performance very much.

Dynaforce - I heard some people suggesting that she didn't stay when second in the Diana. I think that's rubbish. She stays 9f and indeed she'll stay 10f. Her problem in the Diana was that Kent D was riding to beat Wait A While and left her completely exposed to a late run. He had to move early because it looked like Pletcher's horse was going to sweep past but when Wait A While sputtered Dynaforce was all alone in front. When Forever Together came late for the win you could see Kent D slash his whip down in frustration. He knew he got it wrong. Dynaforce will do much better if ridden on her own.

Precious Kitten - I thought she was the outstanding Female Turf horse of 2007 but she's had almost no campaign at all this term. The distance is a question mark but she is bred to go 10f and she has not proven that she can't. She is brilliant enough to win this race and that puts her ahead of many others.

Dreaming Of Anna - No one really talks about her but there are few tougher on the grass. I have my doubts about her at 10f but I think speed does hold up better at Santa Anita than at deep courses like Arlington or Belmont in the fall. Her race in the Beverly D will give us clues. If she happens to win that race then she may well go to the head of the line.

Rosinka - A real longshot who showed some fight last year when a narrow second to Lahudood in the Flower Bowl. She has not gotten back to that level yet this term but she is capable on her day. A very tough and feisty horse at her best. She likes to wing it on the front end but probably would prefer 11 furlongs to 10.

Black Mamba - I'm not really a huge fan of her chances. I think she is beating extremely weak opposition at present. Still she is the most consistent Californian Turf router this year and that has to at least place her among the 10 most likely winners. I like that she always brings her race I don't like that she is just not very fast.

1 comment:

peeptoad said...

Agree about Black Mamba. She's as consistent as they come though, and I'd like to see her give it a shot. She's never been worse than third since coming stateside, but it took the sad elimination of Nashoba's Key and the retirement of Citronnade for her to hit the winner's circle. On the plus side, I thik she will do better at 10F than 9, but she is more likely an exotics horse if she runs in the BC.
Watch for Pure Clan at DMR next weekend. If she runs well again, then I hope she goes in the Yellow Ribbon as a final BC tune up.