Just reading a bit of news and the one thing I'm noticing is that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is going to have a lot of horses coming in off a layoff, many horses who have never run a route of ground and even more who have not tried synthetics. Last time the Juvenile was run at Santa Anita it drew the weakest field in recent memory and true to form a maiden winner (Action This Day) stormed to the front off a fast pace at 26/1.
I'm not about to predict boxcars for this years event since all it takes is one good horse with the proper preparation and Midshipman is probably going to fit that description. But consider how a few of the notables are coming into the race.
Charitable Man - 2 for 2 lifetime but will likely enter off a layoff with no two turn experience and up to this point not even a work on synthetics.
Coronet of a Baron - He's apparently too knocked out to run in the Norfolk so it's straight to the Juvenile. No two turn experience.
Run Away And Hide - He has not been out since the Saratoga Special on August 14th. He hasn't run past 6.5f but his connections are fully committed to sending him to the Juvenile. He might still go in the Breeders Futurity but he's had a problem and may not recover in time.
Azul Leon - Was supposedly set for the Norfolk but there has been no news of his intended participation. Perhaps he will still enter but a few days out there is no buzz on his intentions. He has not run since Aug 10th and of course like all the others on this list he has no two turn experience.
These four contenders would all be in any Juvenile top 10 list and some of them would even be in a top 5. I'm one of those guys who likes to stick with the proven methods of bringing up horses to big races and I must say more and more of these contenders are looking like horses to bet against. I realize that layoffs are not the big deal they used to be but two turn experience is still a very big issue in my mind.