Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Profile Of A Winner - Part 1

Profile of a Winner
A statistical guide to beating the Breeders' Cup

The Breeders’ Cup is the best day, now weekend, of racing in North America. There is no doubt about it. Championship races with full fields, champions, contenders and pretenders all facing each other with an eye on the crown. For the bettor it offers unparalleled opportunity. One could be either prince or pauper by days end. The pools are massive and thus the opportunities boundless. Some players chase the big score with the Pick 6. Others plug away with straight win, place or show wagers. No matter the type of wager you prefer your chances of making money on Breeders' Cup day are enhanced because of the size of the pools. So why do so many of us come home with less than we had? The simply answer is because it is very difficult to pick between so many good horses.

Even while the Breeders' Cup offers the most exciting match-ups around they also offer the most complex handicapping puzzles. In any given race you may have 14 horses, all fully capable of winning and many of them having never faced each other. Many of us do our best to wade through the innumerable possibilities and factors. Often times we side with the horses we know the best from our local circuit, or we come to cheer on our favorite stars. Sometimes we score big sometimes we get nothing. Often times we emerge with excellent stories of close calls and the ones that got away. Many times because of our inability to overcome pre-conceived notions and emotional mood swings throughout the day. That seems to be the nature of the game. Is there a way to bet the Breeders' Cup that wouldn’t be as subject to your emotional ups and downs? Is there a way to streamline the handicapping process and guide your judgment? Do the diverse group of Breeders' Cup winners really have anything in common?

The answer to all of those questions is yes and this project is dedicated to identifying and isolating the factors that Breeders' Cup race winners have in common. Your own judgment is always necessary. Handicapping is a science and science should never be blindly applied. The point of this project is to show how a careful review of the statistical trends can be useful in shaping your judgment and hopefully leading you to greater profitability.

Over the next week the profiles will be explained in more detail so if this is the kind of thing that interests you stayed tuned to this space.

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