The winter is a great time to unearth horses with hidden potential or at least horses with obvious potential that no one has bothered to notice. I spend a good deal of time watching video during racings "off season". Essentially I'm just looking for things that stick out.
Because it's a Tuesday and I can't think of any other topic to pontificate about I thought I'd briefly highlight one horse who really stuck out to me.
I spend way too much time perusing Internet racing sites and it seems like every topic gets covered by multiple sources. But one horse has gone virtually unnoticed. His name is Rail Trip.
Rail Trip is a three year old gelded son of Jump Start out of a Carson City mare. He has the same connections as Declan's Moon, owned by Jay Em Ess Stables and trained by Ron Ellis. He might be the most talented horse that pair have had together since the 2004 Juvenile Champion.
The reason no one has ever heard of him is because he just made his career debut in early November. He isn't two years old so he can't be a classics prospect but his maiden win was one of the most impressive I've ever seen.
I'd encourage everyone to visit Calracing.com and either search for him by name or check out Race #3 on November 7th.
He out-broke the field by almost a length and was two in front before the rest had a chance to gather themselves. He was a tad rank in the early going but he settled down more and more as the race went on. He blitzed though quick fractions of :22.34 and :44.51 before finishing 6f in 1:07.94 under a hand ride. It wasn't just the time, which is the co-fastest 6f time for the meet, but it was also the ease with which he did and the just the way he looked physically. This was a serious performance by a serious racehorse.
He received a meet high 102 Beyer figure for the performance. To achieve a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure in your career debut is a fairly significant accomplishment. I don't have a complete list of horses that have done so but I do know that generally less than three horses achieve it every year. To the best of my knowledge this is the first time a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure has been earned in a synthetic track career debut.
Who knows how far his career will go but for the most part the horses who were good enough to earn triple digit Beyers in their debut found themselves good enough to win Grade 1 races at some point.
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3 comments:
My fear with horses who run big first time out is that they never run back (or take forever to run back) to that number. He definitely seems like one to watch though, with that type of performance... I wonder if this one could be destined for the Malibu.If he winds up there he will be facing a very tough crowd: Gayego, Georgie Boy, Into Mischief, Colonel John, and possibly Dixie Chatter.
That is always my fear as well and in most cases they don't earn the same figure next time out but most of them do go on to win nice races.
I could only think of 12 horses who had achieved the 100+ in their debut and 6 of them were G-1 winners. A further three of them achieved it this year and still haven't had their second start.
Forest Music is the only bust I can recall who got a massive first Beyer and she was managed by Gill.
Horses like Formal Gold, Discreet Cat, Pulpit and Lost In the Fog did well for themselves.
I don't expect a G-1 next out, I don't think he'd be ready for the Malibu but I think he's got some serious quality and should be a stakes winner one day.
What do you think about the theory of a horse improving in his second start? If he won easy there should be something left.
Although I always ask myself what the hell happened to Declan's Moon? How did he just go wrong like that?
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