Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Every Tuesday, barring unforeseen circumstances, I'll be updated my Derby Top 10 right up to the Tuesday after the last major preps are run. The Triple Crown Trail is lots of fun and I'd encourage everyone to make their own lists and follow along. This is one of the most exciting times of year.

Derby Top 10 - Jan 6th

1. Imperial Council (2)
2. Old Fashioned (3)
3. Hello Broadway (4)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (6)
5. Square Eddie (7)
6. Midshipman (8)
7. Vineyard Haven (9)
8. Terrain (5)
9. Break Water Edison (10)
10. Quality Road (new)

Dropped: Street Hero (1)

I made my initial Top 10 list a month ago and in the next week Street Hero was retired and Terrain suffered an ugly loss. Street Hero's defection makes Imperial Council my top Derby horse. I'm not sure how comfortable I am trumpeting him as the most likely Derby winner but he ticks all the right boxes aside from having stakes experience. Form lines through Hello Broadway and American Dance suggest that he'll be just fine in stakes company but you never fully know until you see them. Imperial Council has shown tons of talent in his brief career, he is well bred and in good hands. He stays on top until I see more. My list is very light on horses who run primarily on synthetics. Square Eddie and Midshipman are the only two. A horse like Pioneerof the Nile has been excluded because I really don't think he is very good and because he looks like a turf horse who can also run on synthetics. The real dirt of the Derby could be a big problem. I'd much rather have a less accomplished horse like Quality Road who I know will handle dirt. Terrain takes a fairly big drop down from 5th to 8th because of his failure at Delta Downs. I'm not willing to drop him entirely though. Remember that Funny Cide tanked badly in his first start away from New York, many people got off the wagon because of it. Delta Downs can be a weird track to handle and Terrain was ridden very oddly that day. I'll give him another start to find his feet. Otherwise he has been very consistent and has twice beaten Pioneerof the Nile. Quality Road is the new comer to my list. He has had just one lifetime start but it was a phenomenal debut. Some horses start of very well and just keep getting better. Horses like Formal Gold, Curlin and Lost In The Fog were that way and it's possible that this horse is as well. The 101 Beyer he got in his debut already makes him "fast enough" to compete with the best of the division. What he needs to do now is confirm that the figure wasn't a fluke and stretchout in distance.

1 comment:

peeptoad said...

Here's my list from mid-December. If I had to re-do it I think I'd maybe drop Terrain and add Pioneerof the Nile... it'll change soon enough.

1. Vineyard Haven
2. Old Fashioned
3. Square Eddie
4. Hello Broadway
5. Midshipman
6. Breakwater Edison
7. Capt Candyman Can
8. Terrain
9. Atomic Rain
10. Giant Oak