Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Play Back In The Preakness

For those looking for an interesting Preakness angle you probably need not look any further than the favorite. No, I'm not simply suggesting that you bet the favorite in the Preakness although that would have netted you an $11 profit on equal $2 win bets since 1990. I would actually suggest that you consider playing the Derby favorite back in the Preakness.

The bettors in the Derby are rarely wrong about the quality of the horse they make the favorite. The horse may not show it that day but generally they have a decent record the rest of the spring.

From 1990 to the present there has been 13 Kentucky Derby favorites that have returned to run in the Preakness. 6 of them turned up winners and an amazing 11 of them were in the top 3. The only recent Derby favorites to run poorly in the Preakness were Harlan's Holiday (4th) and Excellent Meeting (DNF). Excellent Meeting is a bit of a special case because she was really only the Derby favorite because she was part of an entry with General Challenge. Harlan's Holiday managed to fill out the superfecta.

A $2 win bet on the returning Derby favorite in the Preakness during the last two decades would have cost you $26 and yielded $44.80. That a 72.31% return on investment from betting favorites, the only difference is that you're focusing on the last race favorite not the current one.

Whatever you happen to think of Friesan Fire's chances he might be worth a small win bet and include him on all your tickets. Derby favorites who were favored on their own merit have not missed the Preakness superfecta since Honest Pleasure in 1976.

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