Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Mile After Mile

I have long viewed the Woodbine Mile as one of the key prep races for my favorite race, the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Since its inception in 1997, 30 runners have gone from the Woodbine Mile to the Breeders' Cup Mile and have compiled a record of 30-2-4-2. It's not exactly a great record but the winners of the Woodbine Mile have hit the BC superfecta every time they've run in the Breeders' Cup Mile aside from 1999 where Quiet Resolve failed badly.

Once again this year we've got a very strong lineup for the Woodbine Mile with last year's exacta of Rahy's Attorney and Ventura returning to face Bribon, Jungle Wave, Ferneley and many more.

As you're watching the Woodbine Mile you'll be no doubt doing so with one eye on the future. After all a bunch of live Breeders' Cup horses have come out of this race. Here are some statistical factors for the Breeders' Cup Mile that might help you hone your search even further after the results of the Woodbine Mile have been digested.

Fresh horses usually outperform. I'm not looking for horses who are coming into the BC Mile directly off a layoff but I am looking for horses who have had a layoff within the last 3 running lines. Horses who didn't went 66-0-4-5 in the BC. Especially oppose those who have not had a recent layoff and have achieved 3 increasing Beyer Speed Figures. They have gone 14-0-0-1 and many of them were well respected.

Highest Last Beyer Figure is not really a positive. Since 1996 the horse with the highest last Turf BSF in the BC Mile have gone 16-1-1-2. There were three occasions where two horses shared the highest last BSF. It is the poorest record by last highest BSF holders for all the BC races.

Prefer horses who did not run at Del Mar or Saratoga. Since Lure in 1993 only Artie Schiller and Da Hoss in 1996 have managed to win the Mile after having run at Saratoga or Del Mar in the same season. Saratoga and Del Mar runners have gone a combined 2 for 82 in the Mile from 1996 to the present. It would seem that most of the Mile winners are actually on vacation during those summer months.

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