Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Apr 14th

1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Dunkirk (2)
3. Friesan Fire (3)
4. Papa Clem (7)
5. Quality Road (4)
6. General Quarters (new)
7. Desert Party (8)
8. Pioneerof the Nile (9)
9. Chocolate Candy (10)
10. Square Eddie (new)

Dropped: Old Fashioned (5), Terrain (6)

This is the final installment of the Derby top 10. It seems like an eternity since we've discussed the merits of horses like Vineyard Haven, Capt. Candyman Can and Break Water Edison. It's even hard to remember what we saw in them. My first Derby top 10 of 2009 only featured two or three horses that will probably be in the Derby. Square Eddie, Terrain and Quality Road. I haven't kept faith with any of them all the way through with Terrain being the last of my originals to be dropped this week.

My list, like most others is dominated by a big 5. This is the small and select group that my winning selection will emerge from unless something drastic and unforeseen totally changes the picture. The bottom 5 on my list are simply interesting horses that could run well on Derby day and fill a spot on some exotic.

I Want Revenge is still the horse I prefer the most. There is simply nothing to dislike about him, meanwhile every other contender does have something slightly amiss. Whether it be the ability of Dunkirk to stay 10f or Friesan Fire's layoff plus a lack of 9f experience or Quality Road's feet. They all have something to overcome. Quality Road is ranked as the least of my top 5 because I have the most questions about him but he could still wind up being my selection.

My big question with Papa Clem is can he run fast enough to beat these other monsters. He is definitely the slowest of my elite quintet but there is a Silver Charmish tenacity about him. In the Bob Lewis he looked I Want Revenge in the eye and said "no you don't". He likely never saw Pioneerof the Nile. In the Louisiana Derby where connections said he was less than comfortable he still stuck his neck out and denied Terrain the place spot. Then again in Arkansas he out-dueled a good horse in Old Fashioned. My figures say he is fast enough but he is not as fast as the other four. He gets my respect for his guts more than his speed. In a race where many things can go wrong it's nice to have a little money on the stubborn horse that has the toughness to overcome.

General Quarters makes it back onto the list after having been dropped for his flop in Tampa. I almost feel that his ranking is too high because I think he'll prove to be a bit inferior but realized that I like all the horses beneath him even less. Tactical speed is a precious commodity and this horse has it. It will always give him the advantage over a horse like Hold Me Back or West Side Bernie. My main concern with him is that if the trouble he faced in the Tampa Bay Derby was enough to get him beaten how will he deal with the trouble in the Kentucky Derby. There are a ton of stalker types this year. Space will be at a premium in the first and second flights.

Some may notice the somewhat odd inclusion of Square Eddie at the tail end of my list. We all know the story. He's had just a single race this year and has been injured all spring. The consensus is that his connections are just suffering from an advanced case of Derby fever but I think they actually have a bit of horse to work with. The San Rafael was just a cobweb cleaning, he wasn't primed for the race but he still ran well enough to suggest that he moved forward from his 2yo form. In fact he earned a career high Beyer in the loss. He's a bit of a galloper who will appreciate more distance and I think he may just show a preference for the dirt.

There is still a good deal against him. For me to truly like his chances he will have to run well in the Lexington and earn a new career high Beyer. Running well includes winning or finishing in touch with the winner, closing well, showing good tactical speed and not getting passed in the lane. It's not such a stretch to believe that he could accomplish those things, although big Beyers have been hard to come by at Keeneland. Since the introduction of Polytrack the Lexington has produced better figures than the Blue Grass so there is hope that this year could be the same.

I suppose at the base of it my contrarian nature is tempted by this horse because no one believes in him. His record should have earned him at least a little faith in his ability. Do I think he has a great chance in the Derby? No, but I don't think there are 10 horses that do and I prefer a horse that still has a chance to move forward over a bunch of horses that are decidedly slow.

There are still 10 or more horses that will run in the Derby but did not make my list but I must confess that I don't fear any of them. Is there an unmentioned horse out there that could suck up and run 4th? Yes, but for the most part I feel like all the real contenders are among this group of 10. I've really enjoyed following the Derby trail this year, whether or not this list ends up being of any use at all is really secondary. I'm in this to enhance my enjoyment of the sport and that mission has certainly been accomplished.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Apr 7th

1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Dunkirk (8)
3. Friesan Fire (3)
4. Quality Road (5)
5. Old Fashioned (6)
6. Terrain (7)
7. Papa Clem (9)
8. Desert Party (new)
9. Pioneerof the Nile (10)
10. Chocolate Candy (new)

Dropped: Imperial Council (2), The Pamplemousse (5)

This is the second last installment of the Derby Top 10 and although it's been a fun experience it will be a bit of a relief not to have to find 10 Derby horses every week. The task of finding enough horses to fill this list is becoming increasingly difficult. By now it is pretty obvious that there simply aren't 10 horses with a real chance to win the Derby. It's a high quality renewal of the Derby which means fewer horses have the chance of winning it. I'd almost be happier if this list only included the top 7.

Injury and under performance opened up two slots this week and I had a genuinely difficult time filling those slots. I ended up adding Chocolate Candy and Desert Party. Neither horse has made the top 10 anytime this year and to be truthful I don't like their chances of winning. They made the list because I think they can finish in the top half of the Derby field.

There was plenty of excitement generated from the Derby prep races this past weekend. I Want Revenge was phenomenal in the Wood Memorial. He more than confirmed the impression that he originally made in the Gotham. He is a very talented horse and he is good enough to beat Quality Road. You don't see many horses run faster closing fractions in a dirt prep race. I Want Revenge got the last quarter in 11.96. The last horses to win prep races while closing them that quickly were Curlin, Afleet Alex and Perfect Drift. None of those horses won the Derby but they certainly gave a good account of themselves. The speed figures say that he's the second fastest horse behind Quality Road but visually I think he has a better set of tools for the Derby and I have every confidence that he can beat the Jerkens horse.

Dunkirk made a huge move up the rankings this week despite not running and despite the fact that he isn't even guaranteed to be in the Derby. Two factors have contributed to this climb. A closer inspection of the Florida Derby has me thinking that if the pace turns out a little bit differently Dunkirk can turn the tables on Quality Road. I know Quality Road kicked clear of him when challenged but Dunkirk had already done so much running just to get to that point. On another day I think Dunkirk might be able to beat Quality Road and since he's the horse we're all measuring against I think that count for quite a bit. The second factor is that these final preps have given me enough data to run some models and projections for the Derby and Dunkirk really does fit most of my criteria. I'm not thrilled that he isn't a stakes winner but few would argue that he lacks the quality to win a stakes race. The only reason he hasn't won a stakes is because he's only run in one of them.

Friesan Fire sits quietly in the number three slot. I'm not in love with him but very few horses have done enough to usurp him. He's a solid horse trained by one of the hottest current Derby trainers around. I don't like the lack of 9f prep but the distance should not hamper this horse. If he doesn't have the quality to beat I Want Revenge or Dunkirk he certainly has the quality to second or third.

The news surrounding the quarter crack of Quality Road is actually not my main concern with this horse. If it drags on another week and pushes back a workout then it becomes a big deal until then my other concerns are enough to keep him out of the top spot. I put a good deal of faith in numbers and some of them just don't add up for this horse. He's a very scary horse to oppose but he would not be the first scary horse to lose the Derby. My prediction with him is that he'll either win the race or miss the first three spots altogether. For the purposes of this list that sees him ranked behind the horses who have a winning chance but they're also horses that I think would hit the board if defeated.

Old Fashioned is the last horse on the Derby trail with a real chance to be ranked in the top 2. He has had his detractors up to this point and has almost become something of a forgotten horse but he is still capable of that big race. The distance question looms but as long as he can close out his next race with decent fractions I'll be satisfied. Old Fashioned needs to either win the Arkansas Derby in good order or run a massive race in defeat behind a very good winner. I doubt he will do well enough to take over the #1 slot but I think he definitely has the potential to be ranked higher than his stablemate.

Terrain and Papa Clem have it all to prove. They're both solid but uninspiring types who always look likely to hit the frame but never appear likely to blow away their rivals. I suspect that neither of them have strong chances of winning the Derby. I really only think my top 5 have that chance but both are horses I'd want to use underneath in the Derby based on the information we have right now. I expect both of them to run solid races in their last preps finishing no worse than second. If they jump up and run better than expected I'm certainly open to moving them up.

The main concern with Desert Party is his ability to cope with genuinely fast horses. He hasn't faced any this spring and he will have to in the Derby. His performances have been good enough but I think they're a bit short on class. An interesting stat on Godolphin is that despite the fact that they seem to come with horses that don't belong no Godolphin Derby entrant has ever finished out of the top 10. There are quite a few American operations that would love to have a similar distinction. Desert Party is likely to run a non-threatening 7th which I suppose makes him one of the Top 10 Derby horses.

Pioneerof the Nile is a horse I've been looking to drop for weeks now but the challenge of finding 10 better options is still too difficult. I'm quite sure that I don't like this chances of winning the Derby. The positives for this horse are that he wins, he is bred for the distance, he has acquired some tactical speed and his trainer is top notch. The negatives unfortunately outweigh all the positives listed in my opinion. The strikes against him are that he's untested on dirt and I still think he moves like a turf horse, he is also too slow to win this race. None of his figures have come back very high and worst of all I think was his closing fractions in the Santa Anita Derby. Some people were talking about this being an impressive race and how it finished like a turf race. Neither of those observations are accurate.

He was rank and all over the place early. He made a nice middle move but it's not like he was Dunkirk cutting into the lead of impressive horses. He simply got closer to a bad horse setting a slow pace. His closing fractions were horrendous for a synthetic race with a slow pace. Chocolate Candy and Mr Hot Stuff both ran faster closing splits. 12.50 may be "fast enough" when compared with historical races but synthetic races almost always have faster closing splits than dirt races. It's highly likely that he'll enter the Derby with the worst synthetic closing splits of any horse in the race. I simply can't get behind a slow horse who finishes races slowly. I think he'll be the sucker horse of the Derby but will probably still finish among the top 10.

Chocolate Candy ran a good and genuine race in the Santa Anita Derby. He out closed Pioneerof the Nile and would have been ranked above that one had he not all but stopped in the gallop out. He tries hard and he ought to like dirt but he's not fast enough and he does worry me a bit at 10f. When you have to find 10 horses you simply end up having to take a few like him.

We've almost made it to the end of the trail, just three key races remain. I'm expecting that the established class of horses like Old Fashioned, Terrain and Papa Clem will do well in those final preps. I'm not terribly excited about the Derby chances of the late comers like Hull and Charitable Man. I think they're both good horses but not Derby horses. General Quarters, Theregoesjojo and Patena all saw their stars fall in their last races but I'd accept any of them back into the fold if they run better than expected. Hold Me Back is the one horse I'm not sure what to do with. His Lane's End was impressive enough but he's unbeaten on synthetics and ran poorly in his only start on dirt. He could be the newest version of Dominican.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Mar 31st

1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Imperial Council (2)
3. Friesan Fire (3)
4. The Pamplemousse (5)
5. Quality Road (8)
6. Old Fashioned (6)
7. Terrain (7)
8. Dunkirk (new)
9. Papa Clem (9)
10. Pioneerof the Nile (10)

Dropped: Theregoesjojo (4)

The Florida Derby is the new tipping point on the Triple Crown Trail. Every prep will be judged against the Florida Derby and horses who fail to run better last prep races won't be given much of a chance in the Kentucky Derby itself. Quality Road is pure quality top to bottom and it's very likely that he could be the favorite on Derby day. From this point on even every analysis of the Derby will be judged by how it deals with Quality Road.

There were very few things wrong with Quality Road's performance in the Florida Derby. He rated professionally off the pace and even once he found himself in front he was still extremely relaxed. He was waiting until Velasquez gave him the signal to go, other horses didn't matter and that's a huge plus for a Derby horse. Quality Road has all the visual tools of a Derby winner. He's got good size, great speed and a professional mind. It very much looks like this is the horse that will be in front at the 1/8th pole in the Derby. It's up to the rest of the crop to come and get him.

I still have a few fears about Quality Road. Although I do rely on the visual aspects I'm still a numbers guy at heart and some of the numbers don't quite add up and they prevent me from making Quality Road my #1. The problem I still have with him is the Derby distance and the numbers suggest he might have trouble with it three different ways. He has only had one two turn prep, the AWD's of his sire and damsire are below 8f and his highest lifetime figure was earned in a one turn race. On their own none of these factors are enough to toss a horse straight out the window but when combined it gives me enough doubt to prevent me from throwing my complete support behind him. He certainly would not be the first supremely talented individual to lose the Derby.

I have ranked above him those that I consider most likely to appear like more solid contenders once everything shakes down. As you can see despite all the negatives I just mentioned I still have great respect for his talent. He is among my Top 5 with the chance to move up if others fail.

Dunkirk makes his Top 10 debut this week after a solid performance against the bias. I don't think that Dunkirk was given his best chance to win in the Florida Derby based on the tactics and the track but clearly he isn't as good as Quality Road. I think he can be one day but right now he isn't. I do think his earnings will be just enough to get him in the Derby. His speed figures are a little light but at this stage we're running out of Derby contenders that look both speedy and solid. I can't even imagine finding more than 10 horses who I think can win the Derby. On my list there are really only 7 or 8 that I think could manage it.

I thought that both of the Godolphin pair ran their best races of the spring in the UAE Derby. Although the final time was a shade slow the closing fractions were excellent and slow late fractions had been my #1 concern with Desert Party. I think both of these horses will finish in the top half of the Derby field but neither of them represent a major chance of victory. If I were making a top 10 list with the idea of predicting the top 10 finishers in order then both these horses would be on the list around #8 but my list is about winning chances. Some of my current Top 10 will run poorly in the Derby but I think all of them have a better chance of winning than Desert Party.

It's tough to get things like speed ratings for races in Dubai but all the ratings I have seen suggest that the quality of this race was lacking. The Racing Post rates this pair on par with Curule instead of Street Cry and I have to think that with the speed we've seen stateside both these horses may struggle.

Theregoesjojo has dropped out of the list but he's not been completely forgotten. A solid race in the Lexington or Blue Grass could put him right back in the fray. The most important thing for him is that he shows the ability to stay the distance. I know the tactics may have compromised him but he still looked poor in the final 1/8th. A return to respectability would not be unprecedented but it's certainly not a high percentage occurrence.

There was a slight bit of negative news on Friesan Fire this week that makes me think a bit less of him. Jones considers training up to the Derby as option A and it personally makes me a bit nervous. Not nervous enough to move him down my list but I certainly cooled on the prospect of making him #1. I don't mind layoffs and I don't mind the lack of a 9f prep but I do mind when both factors are rolled into the same horse.

This upcoming weekend to me is the biggest of the spring. Three of my top 5 will be in action and we're going to learn a fair bit about each of them. It looks like all systems go for my top pair in the Wood Memorial although Shug didn't give Imperial Council that 5f bullet move that so many of his primed horses get. Perhaps he's saving that for next month. Imperial Council should still run very well. Pioneerof the Nile pretty much has to run a new career high Beyer Speed Figure to convince me that he's got the quality. I think those enamored with his blazing workouts and big reputation are getting sucked in a bit. He's a lot slower than most of this crop and this is his last chance to show some real speed.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Mar 24th

1. I Want Revenge (1)
2. Imperial Council (2)
3. Friesan Fire (10)
4. Theregoesjojo (5)
5. The Pamplemousse (7)
6. Old Fashioned (3)
7. Terrain (9)
8. Quality Road (new)
9. Papa Clem (new)
10. Pioneerof the Nile (8)

Dropped: Hello Broadway (4), General Quarters (6)

I think the preps in the last two weeks have been more about eliminating contenders rather than creating them. Horses like Patena, Hello Broadway, Flying Pegasus, Giant Oak, General Quarters and West Side Bernie were all pushed to the fringes. They might try another prep race but they'll so as desperate longshots who would basically need to win even to get in the Derby. Their chance has past and while they could prove to be proficient in other respects they won't be Derby horses.

I saw no one as good as I Want Revenge. In many ways the performance of Friesan Fire was very similar but it came up slower. Friesan Fire could still manage to take over top spot but he'd have to improve just slightly and I Want Revenge would have have to regress a bit off his last performance. I really respect Larry Jones and it seems like he's really getting Friesan Fire into a good spot. Normally I'd be betting against a horse with a record like his because with so many wins already one wonders if he'll still be sharp in May but both Hard Spun and Eight Belles were solid all spring long so I have to think that Jones can keep them on edge and even coax a career best effort from them in May.

I still have Imperial Council sandwiched between I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire. I just believe in him. In his last start Friesan Fire improved from a 96 Beyer to a 104. Imperial Council is likely capable of similar improvement and it looks as though these three horses may emerge as most solid Derby contenders. They still have a few boxes to tick off but I can certainly see the potential. Imperial Council got a bit of a positive form reference when Join The Dance nearly took the Tampa Bay Derby. He was no where near Imperial Council in their allowance match up.

Theregoesjojo gets his big test this weekend in the Florida Derby. If he were in line for a pair of two turn preps he'd have a legitimate chance at being first on the list if he does as well as I think he will in Florida. Big Brown won with only a single two turn prep and Jojo's preparation will be somewhat similar this spring but it's still a slight worry for me. I love his talent and running style though. I think he'll turn a lot of heads in the coming weeks.

Old Fashioned's race was not great but it was not as bad as some people think. I've dropped him down the list because he didn't run a big Beyer like I had hope he would but everything else is still par for the course. All year long I and a few others have been saying that Old Fashioned likely won't stay the distance. The Rebel seemed to confirm that observation. I think he'll stay 9f better than he did last week but 10f is going to stretch him. I still have him ranked fairly high because I think he could still hit the frame without fully staying the distance. There is also a lack of quality replacements. Dominguez deserved to lose the mount on Old Fashioned after that big early move into a fast pace. He also put him down on the rail which was a questionable path. Old Fashioned has every reason to bounce back and win the Arkansas Derby.

Old Fashioned's conqueror Win Willy very nearly made the list. Call him the unofficial 11th in this top 10. There are things to like about this horse. He's never lost on dirt and he ran a huge race in the Rebel but I'm not jumping on the wagon that quickly. I think his breeding is suspect at 10f and I also think that the pace set the race up for him. Things fell into his lap and he won't look as impressive next time in the Arkansas Derby with Silver City bypassing.

I thought Terrain ran well enough to keep his place in the Louisiana Derby. He didn't have the greatest trip and not many were closing in the race. I wish he could have gotten closer to Friesan Fire, he actually lost ground in the lane but it was his first start of the campaign and it came on an off track. I think the gelding showed some real class and put himself in a good spot going into his last prep race. A big performance would make him extremely dangerous in the Derby.

Quality Road is back on my list this week. It seems odd to be adding him now, several weeks after his last performance. I've got real questions about his breeding and the lack of two preps around two turns but he's wicked fast and extremely talented and in my opinion all the horses who had previously been keeping him off the list performed badly enough to move him onto it. I have a hunch that he won't get 10f but there is certainly no way to argue that there are 10 more likely winners than he.

Papa Clem makes his Top 10 debut after a solid but unspectacular performance in the Louisiana Derby. He has never run terribly fast on synthetics or dirt but I like his tactical speed and his toughness. One race after repelling I Want Revenge he held tough to beat Terrain late and hold onto second place. Tenacity like that is a real asset. I was expecting him to regress in the Louisiana Derby so his performance buoyed my opinion of him somewhat. He has much to prove still, mostly that he is fast enough to compete at the highest level and that he can win races but he's certainly got a bright future.

Pioneerof the Nile is lucky to stay in the Top 10 after a slow and uninspiring San Felipe. If I could find another quality Derby contender to replace him with I would. I know he was forced out of his element, he had to stay closer to the pace than he had previously. But getting him into the race earlier was an essential and he showed that if he's used at all early it really dulls what he can do late. The San Felipe had a terrible field and he beat them unconvincingly and in a slow time. Pioneerof the Nile is going to get crushed by The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby and he'll likely be well back in the Kentucky Derby as well. The only things he has going for him is the ability to stay, class and the ability to win and also the outside chance that dirt will move him up. I actually think he'll be worse on dirt but there is always that slim chance. In my opinion the Pioneer was one of the worst losers on this Derby trail in these past weeks. It's funny to think that he actually won his race.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Mar 10th

1. I Want Revenge (new)
2. Imperial Council (1)
3. Old Fashioned (2)
4. Hello Broadway (3)
5. Theregoesjojo (4)
6. General Quarters (5)
7. The Pamplemousse (6)
8. Pioneerof the Nile (7)
9. Terrain (8)
10. Friesan Fire (9)

Dropped: Flying Pegasus (10)

I've been eagerly awaiting this period of time ever since I first started this list, we're finally at the part of the season where the preps really count. All spring I've been preaching patience because historically January and February preps don't end up being reliable for guides but now is the time to go with what you see.

I Want Revenge is the horse I've been waiting for. He is the first horse to combine all the necessary elements. He has tactical speed, he is both bred to run all day and looks as if he will he is extremely fast and his preparation will be just what is needed. His closing fractions were also very good, just what you want to see. There is no reason not to rank this horse #1. I'm slightly disappointed that he will be traveling across country so many times before the Derby but all he really needs to do in his last prep is run an averagely good race. A regression speed wise or even a loss in the Wood would not be a terrible thing. He just needs to put in a solid effort to keep him on track. He has already proven himself to be good enough now he just needs to get to the Derby.

I Want Revenge is a perfect example of why I haven't jumped on board with horses like Dunkirk or Quality Road. All year I've believed that performances like this were forthcoming. For the past several weeks we've seen one horse jump to prominence and people have proclaimed them as the next this or that but so much in racing is relative. A few weeks ago Dunkirk's 98 Beyer looked fast, does it still look fast? Dunkirk is now not only behind his peers in terms of preparation but he also looks distinctly ordinary in the speed department. He has some elements of a good horse but he isn't the complete package.

Quality Road is a different but similar story. A 113 Beyer Figure is fast, in fact it's so fast that last week many would have thought that the Fountain of Youth would stand alone as the fastest prep race of the spring by far. After all no Derby entrant had broken 110 since 2006. But in my mind there are problems with Quality Road both in terms of his ability to stay and the lack of two turn preparation. If he had a massive speed advantage over his peers you'd have to include him but arguably he doesn't. Not only did I Want Revenge match his speed figure but there is reason to believe that others in this crop could be capable of doing it as well. Big Brown had a major speed advantage. Quality Road does not, thus his perceived frailties become a bigger deal to me.

I Want Revenge is unlikely to stay atop this ranking until the Derby. There are so many preps to come and so many good horses have a chance to prove themselves but for now you could almost imagine a bolded line separating him from the rest of my top 10. He's the first horse to show me that he has the stuff. I expect two or three more horses to prove themselves in the same way before the Derby.

Imperial Council drops to second behind his Gotham conqueror. He was well and truly beaten this weekend but there was enough there to inspire a bit of optimism. I thought the ride he got was pretty poor. Going to the back of the field was not the best tactical move and from what I'm hearing he ought to be closer to the pace next time. He still finished decently and showed some improvement over his last race. He still hasn't broken out with the type of performance I think he's capable of but he has another start to do it. Shug does not have this horse ready for his A game yet. One thing you often see with a McGaughey horse that is ready to fire is they'll have a quick 5f work within a week of the race. He doesn't usually work his horses at 5f. I suspect it's something you might see prior to the Wood. The Wood will be a huge test for him but at least the standard is clearly visible. I Want Revenge will be opposing him again and in order to be a Derby horse Imperial Council needs to challenge the Mullins horse more. He needs to show more tactical speed and earn a nice triple digit speed figure. My projection at this point is that a horse will need a 104 Beyer to be "fast enough" by my calculation. Imperial Council could certainly improve that much.

I have a thing for the horses who are still somewhat unexposed. Imperial Council, Theregoesjojo, Hello Broadway, Terrain and even Old Fashioned (as a three year old) have not brought their best races to the table yet. I think at least one or two of them will prove to be formidable once their trainers wind them up.

It's a big weekend for six horses on my Top 10 and Old Fashioned has perhaps the most to lose. He has never lost a race so there is a ton of pressure on his camp to keep him undefeated. His last race was not all it could have been and others have thrown down the gauntlet speed wise. He was likely the fastest two year old in America he needs to show that he is still that brilliant horse. I would be very disappointed with a similar Beyer Figure to what he earned last time. I actually don't think he needs to win the Rebel, although I can't identify a horse who ought to beat him. What he needs to do is run fast, perhaps a testing loss while running fast would actually be better for him in the long run.

I've been high on Hello Broadway since his maiden victory and it's time for him to get the job done. General Quarters is likely the only horse who can beat him if the race is still to be considered a positive move forward. I know Tampa is a tricky surface for newcomers but he really needs to display a winning attitude. I know Giacomo and Funny Cide both brought losing streaks into the Derby but it's really not ideal. General Quarters also likely needs to run first or second to confirm his form from the Sam Davis.

Some people are saying that I Want Revenge's performance in the Gotham is a good thing for Pioneerof the Nile, I disagree. It has nothing to do with Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge is a different horse on the dirt, the Pioneer hasn't had the chance to prove what kind of horse he'll be on dirt but certainly one horses preference has nothing to do with anothers preference. For now it's one step at a time for Pioneerof the Nile. I think he ought to win the San Felipe because the horses he's facing are poor. I'd like to see more tactical speed because he'll need it to keep pace with The Pamplemousse next time out.

Terrain, Friesan Fire and Flying Pegasus (who I had to drop to make way for I Want Revenge) are all at the same point. They need a big performance in the Louisiana Derby. Patena, Giant Oak and Papa Clem also have a big chance to make themselves contenders in the same race. I rank all those horses as near equals despite the fact that Friesan Fire has the best resume. I think both his recent wins have been too slow and too early in the year to matter. If he's a Derby horse it will be because of his next two races not his last two. He has as good a chance of improving as any of the other LA Derby horses but not necessarily a better chance.

Unfortunately a vacation will prevent me from updating my Top 10 after next weeks races. Hopefully the list doesn't look horrendously inaccurate after all is said and done this weekend. The Top 10 will return March 24th after the Lane's End. There ought to be plenty of things to be excited about by that time.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Mar 3rd

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Theregoesjojo (new)
5. General Quarters (6)
6. The Pamplemousse (new)
7. Pioneerof the Nile (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Friesan Fire (10)
10. Flying Pegasus (new)

Dropped: Capt. Candyman Can (4), Midshipman (5), Break Water Edison (9)

This past week was a very interesting one for the Derby Trail. I had great difficulty deciding the order of my top 10 and I realized that while this crop looks talented there is a distinct lack of contenders who truly look solid at the full 10 furlong Derby distance.

The difficult question for me is: Will talent overcome pedigree and preparation? We have horses like Quality Road and The Pamplemousse who are undoubtedly fast but extremely suspect at the Derby distance. The trouble is horses like Flying Pegasus, Patena, Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge should all like the distance but at this point they're much slower, so much slower that one wonders if they could even catch up with Quality Road before he gets back to the barn.

In the past few years the Derby has been more wide open because it didn't take much to be fast enough. This year I think it will be decided among the select few who prove to be capable of running big figures as well as being stout enough to handle the distance. A return to the old days perhaps. Right now no horse fits both criteria perfectly but the horses that seem to have a greater penchant for stamina still have two preps to go.

This may be the only Derby top 10 out there that doesn't include Dunkirk and/or Quality Road. I chose not to include Dunkirk last week because his race, while visually impressive, wasn't actually that fast and the events of this past weekend prove that anyone who wants to win the Derby this year must be fast. Dunkirk is not some flashy allowance horse who looks faster than the rest of the crop but lacks seasoning, that was Big Brown. Dunkirk is an average horse who lacks seasoning and a true class test.

Quality Road by contrast is an above average horse. Look back through some old race records if you have them. Horses do not usually run this fast this early. Brilliant specimen's like Formal Gold, Discreet Cat and Lost In The Fog are among the few you'll find that compare. This horse could definitely be as good or better than any of those horses but what does that mean for the Derby? Quality Road was in my top 10 during the month of January and was actually the first horse to be dropped from the list in 2009. What I originally saw in him was the potential that was evident last Saturday. He has the ability to be any kind, as brilliant as any horse we've seen in the last decade. What made me drop him, though, was the lack of stamina in his pedigree. As good as he might be he simply wasn't fashioned to handle 10f. A huge Beyer figure earned in a one turn mile doesn't do anything to change that fact. Quality Road could be the best horse of this crop and he should also handle 9f but the Derby looks too far for him. I was extremely tempted to include him because I do believe so much in his potential but there are other horses out there who should handle the distance and they still have the chance to prove that they're fast enough.

The horse I loved most from this recent weekend action was Theregoesjojo. Ken McPeek emerged from this race with a ton of confidence in his horse. He said prior to the race that his charge was about 80-90% ready then Jojo went out there and made an impressive sweeping move and finished decently to earn a 105 Beyer figure. If this horse still has improvement in him then he could be a monster. McPeek has been talking all spring about bringing his horses along more slowly than he has done in the past. Harlan's Holiday was at his best in February of his 3yo year, McPeek doesn't want to repeat that situation with this horse. He is bred to run all day and I think in a two turn race he'd likely end up being a bit closer to the pace. He is among the fastest horses out there so far. The only reason he failed to move even higher on my list is that he will likely only have one two turn prep race and it will likely be in the Blue Grass which can yield some crazy results. I'd like him more if he was trying to squeeze in a pair of two turn preps or at least if he was running in one of the dirt preps.

Capt. Candyman Can drops out of my list entirely which may seem like a harsh move for someone who has been preaching patience all spring but he showed clear distance limitations and even his trainer is wary about stretching him out again. He is more likely to show up in races like the Bay Shore or Derby Trial. The Kentucky Derby dream is over for him as it is for Midshipman and Break Water Edison who are both injured and off the trail.

The Pamplemousse makes his top 10 debut this week after a massive runaway performance in the Sham Stakes. I think we need to be quick to recognize that while he is beating horses that appear to be somewhat sub par he is doing it in a most impressive fashion. I actually think he will beat Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby. The Derby distance remains a question mark with him as does his ability to handle dirt. I said back in January that this horse looks like a Turf miler and I still think so but he's way faster than Dunkirk and more likely to stay the distance than Quality Road. I just couldn't find 10 horses who were more likely to win the Derby. In fact I could only find 5. I should give a small mention to Take The Points who I thought ran a very good race for his first time over synthetics. I wasn't completely won over but another good race like that makes him as legitimate as anyone.

Flying Pegasus and Terrain are essentially the same kind of horse. Both have been all but forgotten but both have every right to improve enough to be legitimate Derby horses. Realistically they likely need to get 15 Beyer points faster over their next two races. It's a tall task but that's what it will take to be competitive in prep races this spring. They're both bred to get the distance and seem to have a good bit of class. The Louisiana Derby will be extremely important for them. Patena is the same type of horse but I rank him slightly lower because of the reports that he has been struggling with illness recently.

This coming week will feature the highly anticipated stakes and two turn debut of Imperial Council. In a perfect world he'd win the race in Quality Road type fashion but realistically he needs to be in the money, not losing ground at the finish and run a faster race than his most recent sprint. If he does all that then he's done the minimum I expect from him at this time. The Gotham won't be an easy race but I don't mind knowing what he's made of now rather than later.

Old Fashioned, Hello Broadway, General Quarters and Pioneerof the Nile all fly under the radar this week as they work towards starts on March 14th. Much will be learned about them at that time but for now it's just business as usual. As long as they don't get injured they'll likely hold their positions until they get back in the action.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Feb 24th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Midshipman (5)
6. General Quarters (6)
7. Pioneerof the Nile (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Friesan Fire (10)

No changes to the Top 10 this week. Making no changes is maybe a bigger shock than making outrageous changes. The breakout performance of Dunkirk has caused a big stir and rightly so. It was a massive performance and up to this point in his career he has shown as much promise as any horse on the Derby trail. He was caught very wide around the first turn and still managed to finish strongly. He earned a solid 98 Beyer Speed Figure for the race. He has a decent pedigree, his connections are solid and he seems very professional as well as talented. So why didn't he make the list?

There is much discussion over what these lists are supposed to represent. Is it potential or accomplishments up to this point? The answer is both and neither. It's a mixture of the two but ultimately it's a representation of the writers opinion about who the 10 most likely winners of the Kentucky Derby are. Some weigh potential more heavily while some depend on accomplishments. As for my list it's simply my opinion of all the combined factors I consider to be relevant. For some potential is their main attraction. For others it's accomplishment but for all these horses it's about how I think they'll do in the Derby specifically not how big a factor I think they'll be in prep races.

Dunkirk, Theregoesjojo and Flying Pegasus were all on the cusp of being included. I cut, pasted, edited and undid for hours as I mulled over which horses to include. In the end I decided that I simply need to see another start from these horses or a poor start from one of those ranked ahead of them. A lot of people are comparing Dunkirk to Big Brown, that's a mistake that will bias your interpretation of his form. Dunkirk is not the next Big Brown, he's the one and only Dunkirk. He could be better or worse than any other horse that has raced. What he is capable of or able to accomplish is independent of any other horse that preceded him.

A few things that prevented Dunkirk from being in the top 10 are: 1) A lack of experience, I'd like him more if Pletcher was squeezing two more starts into him. 2) His numbers look flashy but they're actually not that good. If one wanted to do a Big Brown comparison Dunkirk looks extremely slow and my numbers suggest that this crop is faster than last years. He needs to step it up. He is fast enough at this stage but he needs to improve a lot. Big Brown at this stage was so much faster than everyone else he only needed to maintain his form. 3) Gulfstream allowances have not been the best this year. It's also the reason Theregoesjojo has been unable to break into the list. The form from the route allowances at Gulfstream has not translated into stakes success at all this spring so I'm a bit wary of horses whose entire reputation is based upon them. I know cynicism is the easy way out because most horses don't become all we imagine they can be but I'm still choosing to be cautious over this one.

The news is all good from Imperial Council's camp. He is going into the exact stakes preps I hoped he would. The Gotham and Wood Memorial should show us all we need to know about his Derby suitability. I don't think he needs to win both of them to confirm his ability but he probably does need to win one of the two while earning some solid figures and showing the same tactical speed he has exhibited up to this point.

Capt. Candyman Can and Break Water Edison get vital acid tests this weekend. For Break Water Edison it's a vital make or break race. He needs to finish in the money and look decent to still merit consideration. Now is the time to put past inconsistencies to rest. Capt. Candyman Can needs to prove that stretching out is no problem. I know a one turn mile isn't a stamina sapping route but he is a very talented and consistent horse so anything worse than a nice second could be viewed as a major disappointment. Realistically the Candyman should eat up this mile, the question marks should be surfacing in longer races. So if you find yourself less convinced about him after the race it's likely a bad sign.

I wanted to just reiterate some of the things I like about Midshipman as he gears up for a race in about two weeks. I loved him in the Juvenile as I thought he was just beginning to find himself both physically and mentally. I haven't seen any recent shots of him but he had the makings of an imposing specimen. His 2yo campaign reminded me very much of Point Given's and it would not surprise me in the least to see him improve massively as a 3yo. Many people thought Vineyard Haven was the more talented 2yo and I could agree with that but I always thought Midshipman was going to be the better 3yo. I'm really looking forward to his first start of the year.

Terrain continues to work well towards his comeback. Don't forget completely about this horse. Friesan Fire hasn't had any recent works and likely needs to start getting back to it this week. Hello Broadway finally recorded a timed workout after a long hiatus following the Hutcheson. The Tagg stable has been in terrible form lately so that maybe moves Hello Broadway's Hutcheson performance up a little. Hopefully it's just a mini slump and the string starts firing again soon.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Feb 17th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Midshipman (5)
6. General Quarters (new)
7. Pioneerof the Nile (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Friesan Fire (10)

Dropped: Vineyard Haven (6)

Prior to this weekend I said that Imperial Council needs to get to work pretty soon to retain his lofty #1 status. He did make it to the races but not in the type of race I was expecting. I thought he would debut in a route race or at least a flat mile but Shug got him started in a 6.5f race. It's hard to tell what you even want to see from a Derby contender in a 6.5f race but my opinion of his race was that he did what was necessary. He showed the ability to sit off the pace and settle, he won in decent racehorse time and he was going stronger at the finish than he was at the start. It's not a performance that will blow you over backwards but I think it's what he needed to get to the next step which is now some kind of route stakes race in March. I suspect the Gotham is the primary target although the Tampa Bay Derby might also be considered. The 94 Beyer Speed figure he received is nice and solid for the type of race it was.

Some still have legitimate concerns over whether or not Imperial Council is a real Derby horse. I have some concerns myself but what I see in him is simple. He's got talent and the it's the right kind of talent. He looks like a router who is classy enough to win sprints. His breeding, his tactical speed, his likely preparation schedule and his connections all seem to be spot on. Even his speed figures are right where they need to be at this point in the season. It's a year where very few horses have stepped in and raised the bar so despite the fact that he still hasn't gone long in a stakes race he's not far behind the best. He has all the tools, but the hardest part remains. He has to use those tools to build a Derby winning combination.

Old Fashioned didn't run well enough to move up my list but he did not run poorly enough to move down. He didn't show the same explosiveness he displayed in the Remsen but I'm sure Jones didn't want him anywhere near that sharp. As I mentioned last week I trust Larry Jones maybe more than any other trainer and he surely knows that a sophomore better not be at his best in February. Old Fashioned kept his winning streak alive with a workmanlike performance from off the pace. It's good to see a new dimension from him.

The biggest news of the weekend in my opinion was the breakout performance of General Quarters. I know it was at Tampa and some horses (Deputy Glitters, Fierce Wind, Limehouse) don't really bring that form with them once they leave but this was the first big performance of the Triple Crown trail and I think the horse has the tools to improve on this form. It's the first time this year I've jumped on a horse right after a stakes win, even Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire took some time to earn my respect. I have General Quarters ranked 6th overall which makes him the lowest ranked contender that I don't have major doubts about. All the horses above him have tools they just need to prove what they've got. All the horses below him have shown some key tools but are still missing some.

General Quarters was not much of a two year old but all his trainers saw talent in him. He was rounding into form and in many ways his big win was not the shock it appeared to be at first glance. He is bred to get the distance at least as well as any other contender and his tactical speed is fabulous. His stride sort of reminds me of Skip Away, every stride seems like a flourish of activity but unlike Skip Away he has already shown that he can handle Churchill Downs. He has a good build for a router but still seems a bit immature. He may grow into that body a bit over the spring and become a really powerful specimen. I'm not concerned by the sudden leap in his speed figures. Routers often see such improvement when they finally get to go two turns. I think he's likely to equal or better that figure next time out.

His preparation will be solid with intended starts in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. I wish only the best to this big horse with little connections. He is first one to really stand out this spring.

Vineyard Haven drops completely out of the list after his performance in the UAE 2000 Guineas. I know I gave Break Water Edison a pass after his bomb in the Hutcheson but I thought this race by Vineyard Haven was worse in a few ways. First off Vineyard Haven was never likely to get more than two starts before the Derby. This was one of them and it stunk. He never looked comfortable and it seemed as though he hated the track. You know his next prep will come over this same track. He's not a good bet to compete in the Derby let alone have a winners chance.

My Top 10 has changed very little from January to now. My first ranking of the year had 7 of the same horses. Square Eddie, Vineyard Haven and Quality Road have been replaced with Pioneerof the Nile, Friesan Fire and General Quarters. This ranking will change very little over the next few weeks as well since the Fountain of Youth is the next major prep race. Not many allowance winners have caught my eye aside from Imperial Council of course and very few races run this year have changed my perceptions that were formed based on these contenders two year old form. But March brings a whole new set of challenges and how these horses perform will weigh heavily into the ranking they're given.

There will still be twists, turns and unfortunately injuries. It's going to be lots of fun seeing the true Derby horses come to the fore.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Feb 10th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Midshipman (6)
6. Vineyard Haven (7)
7. Pioneerof the Nile (9)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (10)
10. Friesan Fire (new)

Dropped: Square Eddie (5)

Things are beginning to get serious. By the time I write the next Derby Top 10 we will have had three more graded route preps and many of the top Derby contenders will have run at least once in 2009. It's not quite crunch time yet. The most important prep races are always run in March and April. Derby contenders need to be in stakes company by March.

If Imperial Council is going to make it into stakes company by March he needs to make his debut very soon. If he has not run by this time next week I'll take it as a negative and start moving him down the list. The positives are still are there though. Both of his two year old races were fantastic and they alluded to much promise. He's been working solidly and should be fit for a return this weekend.

Old Fashioned is ready to get his campaign underway in Monday's Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. He'll be facing some hot horses with Silver City and Poltergeist expected to be in attendance but realistically everyone is expecting a win from the most dominant two year old that wasn't sold to Godolphin. I'm sure his fans will interpret anything less than a win as an upset but as far as his Derby preparation is concerned he simply needs to show that he's still got it. He could easily do that without winning.

Hello Broadway and Capt. Candyman Can will likely get back to work sometime this week and then we'll learn more about their next intended engagements. Capt. Candyman Can seems pretty set for the Fountain of Youth but Hello Broadway's plans are up in the air. Even an allowance has been discussed as Tagg is mostly looking for a spot where his colt can get that winning feeling back. Hello Broadway hasn't won a race since his career debut and while that isn't such a terrible thing because he has been running well and improving it does make you wonder about the horse's mentality.

One horse who has put that mentality issue to bed is Friesan Fire. He was a talented but troubled juvenile. Jones always believed in him but never got the best out of him. Now he looks as though he is putting it all together. I must admit that despite his pair of stakes wins I nearly didn't add him to the list. He is not a fast horse, he still has trouble with settling and generally the horses winning stakes in January and February aren't the same ones who win in April and May. He is on the list for one reason only. I have tremendous respect for Larry Jones and his ability to get the most from his horse and also his ability to keep the sharp all spring. Eight Belles and Hard Spun both started off their three year old season with good races in January and improved that form all the way to May. In any other hands Friesan Fire is not a horse that catches my eye. There are a ton of triple crown frauds who win races just like he has been doing and they come to nothing.

The word from Dubai is that both Vineyard Haven and Midshipman are coming along well. Vineyard Haven seems to be further forward in his preparation and is ready for the UAE 2000 Guineas on Thursday. One would think that because of the class edge he showed in North America that it should be an easy race for him but there will be a few South American and South African four year olds in the race so it might be a tougher test than we think. I'm not going to put too much stock in the race. Both Vineyard Haven and Midshipman still have the chance to get two 9f preps in with the Al Bastakiya and UAE Derby. The criticism of Dubai derby runners has always been that they've been poorly prepared. This year they might have just as much prep work under their belts as the ones based here.

Pioneerof the Nile has jumped up the rankings a couple of spots but that was mostly due to a reshuffling. Square Eddie is injured and Terrain is getting over an illness. A lot of people are gushing over Pioneerof the Nile's effort in the Robert Lewis but to me it looked like a race that could deceive a lot of people. I'm not sure that he gets to the front on a dirt track. Horses who leave themselves too much to do rarely succeed in the Derby. Pioneerof the Nile needs to show more tactical ability as well as earn some better speed figures to be a top tier Derby contender. I'm also still skeptical about his dirt ability. He runs like a turf horse, even on the synthetic tracks.

Terrain and Break Water Edison are sort of forgotten horses. Both are coming off a poor last race but both have shown enough ability in the past to be considered. Of the 401 Triple Crown nominations only 54 have recorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 or more. Both of these horses are among the 54 and Break Water Edison is actually right near the top with his 99. Despite his losses he has still shown more ability than a horse like Friesan Fire when at his best. It's that top end ability I'm keying on. A horse cannot give what he doesn't have and on a day when everyone is supposed to be at their absolute best I'd like to be on the horse whose best IS the best. Consistent but slow winners usually find themselves losers when they face fast horses. Break Water Edison's Hutcheson was a debacle but he's always had the look of a two turn horse anyway. I'm keeping faith until I see him run again.

Terrain has gotten back on the work tab and hopefully now will be ready to put in a pair of two turn preps. There is a ton of hysteria over Pioneerof the Nile but I say this nearly every week. Terrain has beaten the Pioneer both times they faced each other and he's already won on conventional dirt. He could easily be a factor on the trail.

Square Eddie was left out of the top 10 for the first time this year after it was reported that he needs 30 days on the sidelines. Technically he could still make the Derby but I'm wary of a horse who still needs to do some healing at this time of year. If he makes it back on time and looks good in a prep I'd consider adding him back but it's a bad risk to back him at this point.

There is still a lengthy list of contenders who are on the cusp of proving themselves but I don't like any of them enough at this point to include them. Flying Pegasus looked very good in the Risen Star but that race alone isn't enough to vault him into the top 10. Poltergeist, Theregoesjojo, The Pamplmousse, Papa Clem, Take The Points and even recent maiden winner Hull look like exciting prospects but none of them have done enough in my opinion.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Feb 3rd

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Square Eddie (5)
6. Midshipman (6)
7. Vineyard Haven (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Pioneerof the Nile (new)
10. Break Water Edison (9)

Dropped: Quality Road (10)

I'm trying to be intentionally patient with my top 10 this year and this week sees the first changes to the ranking in 2009. The top eight horses remain unchanged although it's now getting down to crunch time for Imperial Council. He still has to come out and prove that his two year old races were not just flattery. I suspect he'll be getting an allowance prep in the next two weeks. If he isn't at the races by then I'll consider it a negative.

Old Fashioned is likely to be in action in two weeks. Realistically this is a horse that is not expected to lose on the Triple Crown trail. I think he'll run the table in Arkansas and if he isn't the Derby favorite he'll be among the top two choices. The question that will still linger over him is can he maintain his speed for 10f. He looks more like a 9f horse to me right now. Horses like Peace Rules, Congaree, Millennium Wind and High Fly all showed dominant speed at 9f but didn't quite see out 10f. That's my fear with this horse, but of course I still think he's going to be the most dominant horse on the trail.

The Hutcheson was precisely what I hoped to see from Hello Broadway and Capt. Candyman Can. I still have Hello Broadway ranked above the Candyman despite the loss because I think he's a horse that will get better as the distance increases. Being right on the pace never suited him as well but he fought out a good result and should be much tighter next time. I have always preferred my Derby horses to get a pair of two turn prep races and the Fountain of Youth is a one turn race so that's a slight worry if these two take on the Fountain of Youth then just the Florida Derby before the big event. Big Brown overcame that lack of stamina prep but he was much better than his competition. Tagg has mentioned putting Hello Broadway in an allowance, that might be a better move if it's two turns. Capt. Candyman Can is less definite to get the Derby distance but you can't argue with the talent he's shown. Just one loss on the dirt and that by a half length on a day when he was terribly rank. The Hutcheson was excellent for him. He settled well and made a nice move to take control. He earned a solid figure but I didn't get the impression that he's already run his best race of the spring. The Hutcheson wasn't as perfect for Break Water Edison. He never looked comfortable and now has everything to prove in his next start. He barely stays in the top 10.

Square Eddie is headed for a match with Old Fashioned. I expect him to lose but all he really needs to do is prove he can handle dirt as well as he does synthetics. If he does that then he'll likely stay in the top 5 all spring.

I was assuming that Midshipman and Vineyard Haven would have been surpassed by horses that have run but no one has really come out of the blue and made themselves a solid Derby contender. Saratoga Sinner looked very good in the Holy Bull but he's not bred to get the distance. The Pamplemousse looked good in the San Rafael but he has turf miler written all over him. I'm still waiting for someone who has good tactical speed, can earn nice figures and is also capable of going 10f.

Mr. Fantasy made a good impression in his second start at Aqueduct. He is definitely the best 3yo on the grounds but I'm not adding him to the top 10 because physically he looks like a sprinter. I know he just handled two turns with ease and his breeding suggests that he can go further but against top class horses I think he'll struggle going two turns. I still prefer Theregoesjojo to all the horses that aren't on my list.

I finally decided to add Pioneerof the Nile. I think he's over-hyped. I don't like his style for dirt racing but I do respect Baffert's ability to get the best out of his horses. In a year where legitimate Derby contenders have been somewhat slow to come to hand it's hard to keep off the horse that most people think is the best in California. He has tons to prove to show me that he really could win the Derby but right now is he one of the ten best candidates? Yes.

I still have Pioneerof the Nile rated behind Terrain despite the news that Terrain has been a bit sick lately. Terrain has beaten the Pioneer in both of their match-ups and has some dirt form. His sickness is an issue I'll monitor but realistically he is a horse with a solid enough foundation that all he really needs is a prep in March and April.

I still believe in the talent of Quality Road but I think stamina will be a real issue. None of the other allowance winners that have gone unmentioned in this post have caught my eye.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Jan 27th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Square Eddie (5)
6. Midshipman (6)
7. Vineyard Haven (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Quality Road (10)

This past week provided very little guidance but as we close out January the results will start to come thick and fast. My top 10 has changed very little over the past month and that is because of the fundamental belief that the January racing action is mostly inconsequential. This weekend kicks off the important action on the Derby Trail.

Interestingly three of my top 10 will be in action in the same race. The 7f Hutcheson stakes will see Hello Broadway, Capt. Candyman Can and Break Water Edison face off. It wouldn't shock me to see them finish in that exact order. I won't be too disappointed if any of the three fail to hit the frame. This is still a one turn race and connections are likely looking to get a pair of two turn races into their charges after this one. I'm very excited to see them in action, especially Hello Broadway and the Candyman.

The other major stakes race this weekend is the Holy Bull. This race could easily produce a legitimate Derby contender. I'm not sure who it'll be at this point with several horses looking as though they could fit the bill. I'm hoping the winner fits the following description. I hope they're bred for the distance and also have the look of one who will appreciate a route. I hope that they win the race in a decent final time, earning a Beyer in the mid 90's at least. I'd also love to see the winner show good tactical speed. If he fits that description I'm sure I can find a place for them in the top 10.

After evaluating the pedigree of Quality Road I'm not sold on his ability as a Derby horse. I think he's a horse of quality but perhaps not of stamina. He is still in the top 10 because there is no point in rushing to judgement without a suitable replacement standing by. Theregoesjojo tops my radar list but he hasn't stretched out yet. Pioneerof the Nile is on top of many people's list but I have severe doubts about his dirt ability. Poltergeist is the new hot ticket in town but I'm not in love with his pedigree for 10f either. Neither of the Gulfstream Beyer bullets Notonthesamepage or This Ones for Phil has much of a Derby chance in my opinion. Quality Road will likely be replaced in the top 10 next week after I get a look at the Holy Bull but for now he stays in there, barely.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Jan 20th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Square Eddie (5)
6. Midshipman (6)
7. Vineyard Haven (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Quality Road (10)

Prior to the San Rafael I said that Square Eddie doesn't need to win the race to retain his position. A loss in January means very little when stock is taken in May. He ran a good race but couldn't get to a winner who ran out of his skin in a pretty fast time. It was good enough for Square Eddie. I find it both interesting and positive that connections are saying he should get one or two dirt preps before the Derby. This might have been the last time we see him on synthetics until the summer. I would suspect that a race like the Louisiana Derby is next on the list for Square Eddie.

As for The Pamplemousse I think I may have found myself a new favorite to cheer for. I don't really like him as a Derby horse, I think he'd have a great future as a Turf miler but for now I'd rank him as the official #11 on this 10 horse list. If Quality Road doesn't take a step forward next out The Pamplemousse will be waiting in the wings to take his place. He does not inspire visions of stamina but it's not far fetched to think that he could win the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. He is certainly one to keep an eye on. A 95 Beyer figure for a synthetics prep in January is quite zesty. I don't think The Pamplemousse really needs the lead he simply took it for the lack of a faster horse.

Chocolate Candy, Taqarub and Flat Out are all suckers horses in my opinion. I don't think any of them are Derby horses but I do think that Taqarub could be one of the best sophomore sprinters this season. I don't think we've seen real Derby quality on exhibition yet in 2009. The only two of my Top 10 runners who have been in action are on the list more for the strength of their two year old races than most recent ones. I'm still waiting for a three year old to "wow" me.

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Jan 13th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Square Eddie (5)
6. Midshipman (6)
7. Vineyard Haven (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Quality Road (10)

Not a major week of Derby doings. Most of the action came in Gulfstream allowances but there was also the Lecomte stakes. I did like Friesan Fire to win the Lecomte but I knew going into it that there was very little he could do that would cause me to include him in the top 10. He won nicely but I need to see him step it up in his next few starts. He has already faced some of the good horses in this division and lost. The Lecomte simply lacked quality opposition so even a win doesn't count for much. But there were some positives, he looks as though he could be the best horse wintering at the Fair Grounds after stablemate Old Fashioned leaves for Oaklawn. He also has good speed which I think is essential. I'd rather fall for a less talented horse with tactical speed than a less talented plodder like Patena.

Ken McPeek had a very big week with three different allowances victories. Danger To Society, Free Country and Theregoesjojo all managed to find the winners circle and give McPeek a pretty good hand of contenders. None of the three did enough to merit a glance from me however. Danger to Society and Free Country were both slow. Now if the crop ends up being a particularly slow one I may have to consider them. But the horses currently in my top 10 are faster than they were. The positives for both of them are that there is still plenty of time to develop. The Holy Bull is penciled in for both and we'll find out a bit more about them.

Theregoesjojo is a separate case and he does deserve some consideration because his allowance victory came at the expense of Quality Road, my current #10. My fear with "jojo" is that he might be a late running sprinter. He really did get a perfect setup behind dueling speed and was able to draw clear late. But then again the 95 Beyer and the early career precocity speak well of his ability. He would be the unofficial #11 on my list.

Quality Road got a valuable lesson and that lesson is that talent is not enough you need to learn to rate. He went out at a breakneck pace with another quality colt and it cost them both in the final furlong when Theregoesjojo made up almost 7 lengths. Quality Road still would have received approximately a 90 Beyer for the effort so he's still faster on average than a good number of this crop. What he needs to do now is settle down and still show the ability to put up a fast number around two turns. This next start is key for him. A lot of big figure maidens regress in their second start. It's almost inevitable but he ought to bounce back in his third start if he's destined to be top quality. I did like that he still outfought Obligingly for second. It showed guts and ticks another box in the experience factor.

I'm being deliberately patient with my Derby horses this year. I put a good amount of time into my initial talent appraisals now these horses must do something much worse than I expected for them to get dropped. Conversely a new horse has to really step up and show some talent to break into the ranking.

All of my top 10 contenders who have not been specifically mentioned are still on schedule and working well. Midshipman and Vineyard Haven are the only ones without recent published workouts but that information is not recorded the same way in Dubai. No problems have been reported so it's safe to assume they're on schedule.

This week we get a look at Square Eddie as well as Brother Keith, Chocolate Candy and a few others in the San Rafael and California Derby. For Square Eddie he doesn't need to win to stay in the top 10. In fact even a terrible performance might keep him in, as I wrote last week a lot of eventual Derby winners didn't do very well in January stakes races. But in a perfect world I'd like to see him run well and earn a Beyer at least in the high 80's.