Well for the 2 people who read my blog you will be happy to note that I finally figured out how to allow comments. For most people this isnt even an issue but for me it took switching the entire format of my blog to beta. Anyway since this was the first comment ever made on the site I'll devote an entire post to responding to it :)
Peeptoad
"Regarding the Juvenile division:I agree that Circular Quay will still be one to watch on BC day despite his loss this weekend. It was his 1st at a route(?)- the Polytrack may not have helped him either. His running style is a bit worrisome considering the BC will be a large field, but he has talent and class. IMO, Great Hunter is more likely to run in the frame but not win on BC day. (But I could be totally wrong about that.) I think the synth surface actually may have aided him and the ultra-quick tracks of SoCal where he was running previously may not have been his best surface in terms of his style. And lastly, what do make of Stormello? He sure looked good beating the highly regarded Principle Secret in the Norfolk"
I have actually cooled a tad on Circular Quay. First impressions arent always the right ones and the more I look at the race the more I see the possibility that he handled the surface fine but wasnt able to kick on at 8.5f. It possible that he may be a stretchout sprinter and while I do respect his chances I'm not so sure that he will be my primary selection come BC day.
Great Hunter and Scat Daddy are two horses I would think long and hard about before tossing. Longshots happen in the BC, but both of these guys have class, versatility and some toughness. If neither wins it wouldnt surprise me to see both of them still run in the frame.
As for Stormello I'm actually quite negative on him. As some of you may know I'm actually quite big on a project that I call the "Profile of A Winner". It is essentially a system where I take all the common factors of the winners of that particular race and build a profile. Maybe I should write a book on the subject because it produces about 75% winners. Anyway I disgress. The point of mentioning that is Stormello flies in the face of many of the trends I see emerging. To be truthful the Juvenile Profile is the weakest of the 8 but its still pretty good. Here are some things he's strikes out on.
He has the highest last beyer figure. At least at this time he'll go in with a 96 and only allowance or maiden winners can top that because all the stakes races were lower. None of the last 10 juvies who came in with the highest Beyer fig won. In fact only two of them hit the frame.
He was a longshot in his last race. One of the angles I have long played against in my regular handicapping is longshots next out. I applied those stats to the Breeders Cup and the results are interesting. In the last 10 years 17 horses have entered the juvenile after being 10/1 or more in thier last prep. Thier record is 17-0-1-1. If ones takes all the Breeders Cup horses who won thier last race at 10/1 or more the results are 31-0-2-3. Basically longshots who hit it big just before the big day are more likely to regress than to go forward. I like to stick with the averages.
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1 comment:
Thanks for the comments (on my comment) Kennedy. The more I think about the Juvenile races, the more I think that (this year) class will be a big factor in the outcome. Unlike, for example, 2003 when the short-priced favorite looked like a confirmed sprinter (Cuvee), many of this year's top contenders look like they have the potential to get the distance (and around 2 turns), with the possible exception of Circular Quay. With that long stretch at Churchill, I'll be looking for the horse that can accelerate off the turn and outgame challengers to the wire...More thoughts later after I actually look at the pps..
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