FallStars Super weekend

Overview
This is shaping up to be a fantactic weekend. 3 of the top 10 TCR ranked horses are in action and 4 divisional leaders are set to line up. This weekend also features final tuneups for 5 of my top future selections for the BC. Much could change with the results. There are G-1's galore and even more storylines to ponder. Generally every friday I will post my single selections for every stakes where I have an opinion. Then I'll also follow up with some more indepth analysis of certain races if I see something interesting. There is no point in me pontificating about how exactly Bernardini will achieve victory. Some races wont be listed, such as this week the Goodwood is missing. That is because the race confuses the heck out of me and I dont want to put my name beside any selection. At that stage its just a gamble, not an informed decision.

Selections
Friday Oct 6th
Alcibiades - She's Included
Sycamore - Always First

Saturday Oct 7th
Phoenix BC - Judiths Wild Rush
Breeders Futurity - Circular Quay
Shadwell Turf Mile - Miesque's Approval
Beldame - Fleet Indian
Flower Bowl - Film Maker
Vosburgh - War Front
Joe Hirsch - English Channel
Jockey Club Gold Cup - Bernardini
Oak Tree BC Mile - Aragorn
Ancient Title - Bordonaro

Sunday Oct 8th
Spinster - Asi Siempre
Norfolk - Principle Secret

Analysis
Phoenix BC
I think this race has some opportunities just because no one knows where to go with it. Tepid favourite is Coach Jimi Lee but most likely Silver Wagon will get the role. Neither are horses that one should fear. Silver Wagon needs a good apce, is a question on the surface and never has been really great at the distance. Coach Jimi Lee is a much more solid play but I'm going to look for a better price. Many people are going to go for the logical surface play with Level Playingfield. He loves the surface, but he isnt actually that fast over the surface and I think he can be beaten eve if he runs his best race. Surely not every horse in here is going to hate Polytrack. There is a lot of speed so that cools me a bit on Spanish Chesnut but I do think he is the most dangerous front end entrant. I'm going to play Judiths Wild Rush at a bit of a price. This is his best distance and his form at the distance is just about as good as anyone's. His connections also feel that after working him in a near bullet over this stuff at Woodbine that he is worth sending down. He shoudl get a perfect pace setup and its just be a question of whether or not he's on.
1) Judiths Wild Rush 2) Coach Jimi Lee 3)Spanish Chesnut

Shadwell Turf Mile
The horse I'm most interested in is Silent Name, however I dont think I'll use him on top here. I think he's going to be perfectly primed for the BC and thus wont fire his best shot on this day. I would like to see him hit the frame, and relax off the pace and pass at least one horse in the stretch. He has had trouble passing horses in his last 2 and i think he is better suited to coming from off the pace and using one run. Miesque's Approval is simply in the form of his life and I think he'll continue his good run here over a course he likes. Wolfson has done a really good job with him. I dont like Aussie Rules at the price and neither Three Valleys. Cosmonaut is the only really interesting under the radar play. He is deceptively in the form of his life and he will relish the cutback in distance. He may not be good enough to win but he can certainly inflate the exotics.
1) Miesque's Approval 2) Silent Name 3) Cosmonaut

Beldame
When everyone zigs it sometimes a good idea to zag. All the talk around this race is the speed duel and class test for Fleet Indian. That is supposed to drop this race into Balletto's lap and it may. But I think Balletto will be overbet. The off the pace prospect I like is Round Pond. Her figs arent as good but her best lifetime effort came at Belmont and she is avery tough horse to beat on a dry track. I'm still not sure if she can beat Fleet Indian though. That filly is just very good and although I think she is better around 2 turns it wouldnt surprise me at all to see her run away with this one as well. I think Fleet Indian is the more likely winner but Round Pond is the best value.
1) Fleet Indian 2) Round Pond 3) Balletto

Vosburgh
Everyone has decided that Silver Train is a devastating Belmont specialist and that Henny Hughes and his precocious talent are the only things that can derail him. I would be shocked to see them both lose. Henny Hughes is my top pick for the BC Sprint at this stage, but I dont think he has to win this. I'd rather see him get into a dog fight and learn what older horses are all about. Silver Train is just a bad value play. War Front is the best alternative. He was not far behind ST over this strip and he might be more effective at 6f. He's a real runner, War Front and I think he can lay closer to Henny Hughes and get first run on Silver Train.
1) War Front 2) Henny Hughes 3) Silver Train

Spinster
After looking over most of the Belmont card I feel like I'm choking on a cloud of chalk, so I'm tempted to get a littel exotic for the Spinster. The truth is that no one really knows how the principles will handle the Polytrack so the race is wide open. Spun Sugar is my little darling but I dont think she always brings her A game in consecutive races. I'm going to look for her to suffer a reverse in here but I dont like Happy Ticket as an option. One can harldy dismiss her but the price will be low and she has never been a spectacular horse. She always capable of losing to someone who steps up. The most important thing that people are pointing to with AW surfaces is that a horse just needs to be in shape. Asi Siempre is really in the finest form she's been in since her first race here. She should handle the surface switch and she could gun down the faves late on.
1) Asi Siempre 2) Happy Ticket 3) Spun Sugar