Beldame Stakes
I don't trust any horse in this race. Music Note was fantastic last season but has been hit and miss this year. I do suspect though that her first race of the season came at a time when the stable was out of form and she just wasn't ready. She surprised me with her effectiveness at 7f in the Ballerina. She probably wins this over a lackluster field. Unbridled Belle has the right credentials if she's feeling up to it on the day but she has just become more inconsistent as time has gone on. Music Note in a yawner at 1/5.
Music Note
Vosburgh Stakes
This race is not unlike the Tom Fool Handicap that was run in July. That was supposed to be the big showdown between Fabulous Strike and Munnings but the Strike backed out on race day. His connections seemingly lacked the courage to face Munnings. Which is odd because Fabulous Strike would have been favored there just as he will be here. But I do think that the conditions are better for the Strike here because this is a 6f race. 7f favors Munnings but 6f is the specialty of Fabulous Strike. Go Go Shoot and Kodiak Kowboy are a good supporting cast but I think they're in for third money. I think that two factors are very important, Go Go Shoot and the weather. Munnings will not win this race without a big pace pushing effort from Go Go Shoot and a dry track. The former seems like something you can count on. The latter is definitely up in the air (no pun intended). My feeling is that the track will be wet and Fabulous Strike will defeat Munnings. But Munnings, should he be given the chance, has a much better claim for victory in the BC Sprint. Fabulous Strike is in a unique class as a sprinter. He has shown that he can take unbelievable pressure at 6f and still run to the line. Zensational is not a member of his class, not yet at least. Munnings can definitely be that good but I think a wet track deprives him of that explosive kick he's got.
Fabulous Strike
Flower Bowl Invitational
This is an exciting contest and a good chance to get away from chalky picks in short fields. My own figures say that the race comes down to Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset but I really don't think it's that simple. Dynaforce, Leamington and Moneycantbuymelove all have big chances. I won't quickly forget the race Rosinka ran in the 07' Flower Bowl for Graham Motion. Like Leamington, Rosinka was a tough front runner in the form of her life. Her campaign gained traction at Keeneland, she had a couple of early summer starts and then was layed off until the end of Saratoga where she took a stakes race. Leamington has had a very similar buildup to this race and Motion is very dangerous in the fall months. Her speed figures look a touch shy of the best but if she improves on her last, which I think she is set to do she can win this race. Dynaforce has to be heavily respected as well and I think she's actually the horse to beat. Belmont, like Arlington, is a nice deep course which seems to suit her perfectly. Dynaforce is also a qualifier on a new angle I'm working on. I know I haven't ever really looked at pedigree but after my post last week I got to thinking about ways to catch well bred talented horses. Dynaforce is a horse I'm going to refer to as a "Blue Blood" and I'm interested to see how she does not only here but in every subsequent start. From a pace perspective Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset will be hoping that Criticism and Leamington lock horns but I really don't see a duel developing. I think Criticism takes back and is never heard from again while Leamington has things her own way. Pure Clan and Carribean Sunset may be chasing in vain in the final furlong. Moneycantbuymelove is a wildcard. I think she has only shown form good enough once but it was in her last race so it's not exactly intelligent to pass her off. I don't feel strongly about her but I fear her so she gets on the ticket.
Dynaforce
Leamington
Moneycantbuymelove
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational
This race is an invitational which to me begs the question - How on earth did Ready's Echo and Interpatation get invited? I suppose I'll be red faced if either of them win but they look totally out of their element here. Gio Ponti is the class and the ground looks to be coming together for Grand Couturier. But I can see both of them getting beat. Gio Ponti is my favorite horse in training and it's been a great year to follow him but he always did look like a horse with stamina issues. Is 12f too far? I guess we'll find out. He ought to be heavily favored in this race because he is the most likely winner but seeing his stamina give out would not be a great surprise to me. Grand Couturier is rounding into his best form just like he was last year he'll be a huge danger to Gio Ponti but I think the best value play here is Telling. His last race shocked me but a repeat wouldn't. I think he's come into the best form of his life and 12f is perfect for him. I think he and the other two I've been mentioning will settle this but of course Telling will be far and away the best price.
Telling
Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
Once again and perhaps to my peril I'm going to go against Macho Again. I see his merits but I think the three year olds are better horses. Summer Bird is the new Curlin, he's getting stronger and stronger as the year goes on both physically and with his results. I think the likely off track here helps him defeat the other really talented horse in here, Quality Road. I still think that Quality Road will be the more brilliant horse but 9f is probably better for him and a wet track is a real question mark in my mind. These two are the fastest in the race and other than maybe thinking about a price on Dry Martini underneath I'd just use the sophomores. I think Summer Bird powers home once again over a much more stubborn Quality Road.
Summer Bird
Oak Leaf Stakes
I think it's probably best to go against Baffert's hot pot Always a Princess. Sure she made a great debut but many juveniles regress off of their first performance and she's drawn the rail in here. I'm not a big fan of taking inexperienced horses on the rail. Of course that bias blew up in my face when Hot Dixie Chick romped at the Spa but I'm willing to take my chances that Always a Princess is not another Hot Dixie Chick. I'm going to focus on Blind Luck and Softly Singing. Blind Luck has only lost once in three starts and that was in a G-1 to Mi Sueno. That's as good a resume as you'll find right now. My one worry with her is that she seemed to hang a bit in her last, or maybe she just had problems closing with a rush against horses that were also closing out the race pretty well. Either way it made for a less than stirring visual impression. Blind Luck is the class in my opinion but she's no slam dunk. I was very impressed with the maiden win by Softly Singing. She was aggressive but still reserved, she moved powerfully when asked and seemed very focused and professional. I suspect that she came out of that race with a fair bit of fizz and ginger because Hollendorfer has put her through 5 timed workouts since her last race just a month ago! I think this filly is as sharp as a razor and I expect a very big effort from her.
Softly Singing
Norfolk Stakes
I tried really hard to find a reason to oppose Lookin At Lucky. I tried Gallant Gent, Dave in Dixie and Pulsion on for size but none of them quite fit what I'm looking for in an upsetter. Lookin At Lucky is likely just the best horse and he's supposed to win this race. But watch for the horses that run well behind him. There could be some real BC Juvenile potential among the others. Lucky does not have me convinced that he's championship quality yet but he is more than good enough to win the Norfolk.
Lookin At Lucky
Showing posts with label Handicapping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Handicapping. Show all posts
Friday, October 02, 2009
Friday, September 25, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Kentucky Cup Classic
This is the only stakes race of note that caught my eye this weekend. It's being billed as the perfect prep to get Hold Me Back to the Classic. I think it is a pretty decent spot for him and he's also the best horse in the race. But I do think it might be worth opposing him because it's his first try against older horses and he seems to need a bit of pace to run at. There are a few horses in this race that could set the pace but none of them are real speed balls and this could be a more tactical affair. I'm going to lean towards Dubious Miss because I think he is the best of the early pace/stalkers. Dubious Miss, like Hold Me Back, has a decent record on synthetics but has spent most of his career running on different surfaces. He gets Borel back in the saddle and interestingly enough he's 5 for 5 with Borel and 1 for 8 with everyone else. Whatever Calvin says to him in the warm up it seems to do the trick. Last time out he sat behind a ridiculously slow pace and could not get to the winner but he did run a very good race. I hope he improves with a slightly better pace scenario and hopefully he has enough to hold off Hold Me Back in the final furlong.
Dubious Miss
This is the only stakes race of note that caught my eye this weekend. It's being billed as the perfect prep to get Hold Me Back to the Classic. I think it is a pretty decent spot for him and he's also the best horse in the race. But I do think it might be worth opposing him because it's his first try against older horses and he seems to need a bit of pace to run at. There are a few horses in this race that could set the pace but none of them are real speed balls and this could be a more tactical affair. I'm going to lean towards Dubious Miss because I think he is the best of the early pace/stalkers. Dubious Miss, like Hold Me Back, has a decent record on synthetics but has spent most of his career running on different surfaces. He gets Borel back in the saddle and interestingly enough he's 5 for 5 with Borel and 1 for 8 with everyone else. Whatever Calvin says to him in the warm up it seems to do the trick. Last time out he sat behind a ridiculously slow pace and could not get to the winner but he did run a very good race. I hope he improves with a slightly better pace scenario and hopefully he has enough to hold off Hold Me Back in the final furlong.
Dubious Miss
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
I've calculated the Kennedy Speed Ratings (KSR) for each applicable race at Woodbine on Sunday. Unfortunately I could not find the BRISnet data for races 3, 10 and 11 so those have been left out. For anyone not familiar with these ratings the essential premise is that any horse rated 100 or higher is fast enough to win, the others are not. This system is still in it's infancy so posts like these are really more like tests rather than statements of confidence. Still perhaps a few of you will find it interesting.
Northern Dancer Stakes
It's a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I've ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he's in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It's hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he's only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It's hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I'm not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the "Euro bounce" last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That's good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don't like them as much.
Marchfield
Quijano
Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby I'm not sure that there's a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy's Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I've enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy's Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can't fault him because of a lack of information. I don't think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I'm going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I'm becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy's Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy's Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he's a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he's been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he's as good or better than he was last year. He won't be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I'll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy's Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we'll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It's more like the European tracks that he didn't do as well over. I'm hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.
Rahy's Attorney
Northern Dancer Stakes
It's a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I've ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he's in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It's hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he's only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It's hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I'm not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the "Euro bounce" last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That's good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don't like them as much.
Marchfield
Quijano
Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby I'm not sure that there's a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy's Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I've enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy's Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can't fault him because of a lack of information. I don't think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I'm going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I'm becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy's Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy's Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he's a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he's been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he's as good or better than he was last year. He won't be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I'll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy's Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we'll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It's more like the European tracks that he didn't do as well over. I'm hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.
Rahy's Attorney
Friday, September 11, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Endine Stakes
Keep the Peace is the obvious choice because of the class drop down. Any filly sprint looks easier without Game Face, or any Graded Stakes winner for that matter but the reason I like this race is that Keep the Peace has not been a winner in her career. She has dropped to classes lower than this in the past and she generally finds ways to get beaten. In her last 9 dirt sprints she has hit the board every time but has managed just one measly allowance win. I'm hoping the second best mentality stays with her here. I'm looking to play against her with the top two KSR rated horses. Sunday Geisha has the speed to pull this off if she can get back to the form she showed at Philly park in the spring. The worrying thing for me is that it seems like her only good races have been at Philly Park. Fearless Leader may be the second rated horse but she's the best qualified to pull off the upset. She's got a great record at Delaware and solid credentials at the distance. She can stalk the pace of Keep the Peace, Bold Union and Sunday Geisha and hopefully have a leg up tactically on that group. She just got run down in her last but she did that while coming off a layoff. She has been much sharper in the mornings lately and she looks like a prime play.
Fearless Leader
Presque Ilse Downs Masters Stakes
You're not going to find a better field of female sprinters outside the Breeders' Cup. This race looks every bit as tough as the Ballerina. A lot of trainers like Presque Ilse because they say horses come out the races there fitter. Handicappers have caught on as well and many last time Presque Ilse horses are getting bet. This is a good spot to prep for the BC Filly and Mare Sprint because you'll know very quickly if you belong. Informed Decision has never lost a race on synthetic and she is the deserving favorite. I don't view her as beatable from the standpoint that she'll run worse than expected. I think the only way she loses this race is if one of her rivals proves to be an utterly brilliant horse. Game Face I do not wholly trust. I'd like her a lot more on the dirt but her speedy style does not visually appear to be a good mesh with the surface. Diamondrella is really the reason I wanted to take a close look at this race. She is unbelievable in one turn turf races. Ventura successfully made the transition to synthetics and I'm hoping that Diamondrella does too. I think she has a slight advantage over Informed Decision because I think she closes harder than the Sheppard horse and I think less than 7f is better for her than the favorite. A bomb worth using underneath is Sweet Lorena. She loves the track and has been earning solid figures over it as well. I think she's the horse that Diamondrella and Informed Decision have to be worried about because she has a tactical speed advantage. It should be a very interesting contest.
Diamondrella
Garden City Stakes
There are few horses that I have more faith in than Gozzip Girl. Maram should be a good test but if Gozzip Girl is as good as I think she is then there is no point in trying to get interesting. Gozzip Girl should win this race and continue her roll to the Breeders' Cup and a meeting with Forever Together. I think the rest are looking at second.
Gozzip Girl
Keep the Peace is the obvious choice because of the class drop down. Any filly sprint looks easier without Game Face, or any Graded Stakes winner for that matter but the reason I like this race is that Keep the Peace has not been a winner in her career. She has dropped to classes lower than this in the past and she generally finds ways to get beaten. In her last 9 dirt sprints she has hit the board every time but has managed just one measly allowance win. I'm hoping the second best mentality stays with her here. I'm looking to play against her with the top two KSR rated horses. Sunday Geisha has the speed to pull this off if she can get back to the form she showed at Philly park in the spring. The worrying thing for me is that it seems like her only good races have been at Philly Park. Fearless Leader may be the second rated horse but she's the best qualified to pull off the upset. She's got a great record at Delaware and solid credentials at the distance. She can stalk the pace of Keep the Peace, Bold Union and Sunday Geisha and hopefully have a leg up tactically on that group. She just got run down in her last but she did that while coming off a layoff. She has been much sharper in the mornings lately and she looks like a prime play.
Fearless Leader
Presque Ilse Downs Masters Stakes
You're not going to find a better field of female sprinters outside the Breeders' Cup. This race looks every bit as tough as the Ballerina. A lot of trainers like Presque Ilse because they say horses come out the races there fitter. Handicappers have caught on as well and many last time Presque Ilse horses are getting bet. This is a good spot to prep for the BC Filly and Mare Sprint because you'll know very quickly if you belong. Informed Decision has never lost a race on synthetic and she is the deserving favorite. I don't view her as beatable from the standpoint that she'll run worse than expected. I think the only way she loses this race is if one of her rivals proves to be an utterly brilliant horse. Game Face I do not wholly trust. I'd like her a lot more on the dirt but her speedy style does not visually appear to be a good mesh with the surface. Diamondrella is really the reason I wanted to take a close look at this race. She is unbelievable in one turn turf races. Ventura successfully made the transition to synthetics and I'm hoping that Diamondrella does too. I think she has a slight advantage over Informed Decision because I think she closes harder than the Sheppard horse and I think less than 7f is better for her than the favorite. A bomb worth using underneath is Sweet Lorena. She loves the track and has been earning solid figures over it as well. I think she's the horse that Diamondrella and Informed Decision have to be worried about because she has a tactical speed advantage. It should be a very interesting contest.
Diamondrella
Garden City Stakes
There are few horses that I have more faith in than Gozzip Girl. Maram should be a good test but if Gozzip Girl is as good as I think she is then there is no point in trying to get interesting. Gozzip Girl should win this race and continue her roll to the Breeders' Cup and a meeting with Forever Together. I think the rest are looking at second.
Gozzip Girl
Friday, September 04, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Forego Stakes
This is an extremely tough race with a full 12 entrants. Often you can get a bit of an advantage in races like this by going for course or distance specialists but there is no chance of that this time. Eight horses have won at the distance and another six have won over the course. You could pretty much end up on anyone and I wouldn't laugh. I think the pace will be pretty hot since there are so many speed horses and with such a full field jockeys will be anxious to get a good position. I'll look to get a bit of a price on a pair that could come from off the pace. The first is Peace Chant. His record looks spotty but if you remove the synthetic and turf races from his record he is 6-4-1-0 with three triple digit Beyers. He is definitely fast enough to win the race and the conditions suit him perfectly. I also like Ready's Echo, his record is somewhat obscured by routes and surfaces switches but when you shake it all down the only sprint he ever lost was that remarkable career debut when he came from another zip code in the final furlong to run second. He likes Saratoga and he's a very dangerous closing sprinter if things set up for him. Don't be surprised if he lights up the board.
Peace Chant
Ready's Echo
Woodward Stakes
When I handicap races I often find myself on the wrong side of some of the most powerful performances of our era. I'm usually looking for a way to beat the stars. I do feel kind of guilty on occasion but for the most part racing's stars laugh off my skepticism and romp in impressive style. The Woodward is a race where I expect Rachel Alexandra to win but I won't be picking her on top just in case the unthinkable happens. If Rachel wins this race, even in less than dominating style, she could legitimately lay claim to being the greatest female of the modern era. However I do think that this race will be tougher than all the rest. I'm going to play It's a Bird against the filly because I think it's a great chance to get 10/1 on a horse that is well above par going two turns. He last race doesn't look great but that was in a one turn race. 9f around two turns is perfect for It's a Bird and Marty Wolfson is very savvy when it comes to placing horses like this. It seems like everywhere she goes Rachel has had to deal with one "bird" or another. This bird is the best of the lot and he should give Rachel all she can handle.
It's a Bird
Pacific Classic
Del Mar's premier event looks just about as good as anything seen at Saratoga. It's a full field that looks pretty well matched. I kind of feel like the favorites could dominate this race and afterwords everyone will talk about how it was so obvious. At the same time the longshots could fill out the major places and that would have to be no great shock either. Not when you have quality horses like Parading and Informed at 10/1 and Misremembered at 12/1. I have a 20-20 statistical profile for this race and I've linked it below. It looks as though Rail Trip is the only perfect qualifier while there are 5 horses all tied for the second ranking. Rail Trip does look scary off the performance at Hollywood. If he goes close to that performance again he'll crush them all. Colonel John has to be respected but I think he's terrible value as the possible morning line favorite. I think Rail Trip is plainly a better horse. I'll use Awesome Gem in the mix beneath Rail Trip just because I think he could suck up into one of those minor places. He has been resurgent of late and he could have one more big effort in him. Einstein has to be heavily respected as well. His fortunes have fallen lately but on synthetics he might get some new life. I'll use Rail Trip on top with Awesome Gem, Colonel John, Einstein and Informed underneath. I respect Parading and I do think he'll improve this time but I just don't have room for him this time.
Rail Trip
This is an extremely tough race with a full 12 entrants. Often you can get a bit of an advantage in races like this by going for course or distance specialists but there is no chance of that this time. Eight horses have won at the distance and another six have won over the course. You could pretty much end up on anyone and I wouldn't laugh. I think the pace will be pretty hot since there are so many speed horses and with such a full field jockeys will be anxious to get a good position. I'll look to get a bit of a price on a pair that could come from off the pace. The first is Peace Chant. His record looks spotty but if you remove the synthetic and turf races from his record he is 6-4-1-0 with three triple digit Beyers. He is definitely fast enough to win the race and the conditions suit him perfectly. I also like Ready's Echo, his record is somewhat obscured by routes and surfaces switches but when you shake it all down the only sprint he ever lost was that remarkable career debut when he came from another zip code in the final furlong to run second. He likes Saratoga and he's a very dangerous closing sprinter if things set up for him. Don't be surprised if he lights up the board.
Peace Chant
Ready's Echo
Woodward Stakes
When I handicap races I often find myself on the wrong side of some of the most powerful performances of our era. I'm usually looking for a way to beat the stars. I do feel kind of guilty on occasion but for the most part racing's stars laugh off my skepticism and romp in impressive style. The Woodward is a race where I expect Rachel Alexandra to win but I won't be picking her on top just in case the unthinkable happens. If Rachel wins this race, even in less than dominating style, she could legitimately lay claim to being the greatest female of the modern era. However I do think that this race will be tougher than all the rest. I'm going to play It's a Bird against the filly because I think it's a great chance to get 10/1 on a horse that is well above par going two turns. He last race doesn't look great but that was in a one turn race. 9f around two turns is perfect for It's a Bird and Marty Wolfson is very savvy when it comes to placing horses like this. It seems like everywhere she goes Rachel has had to deal with one "bird" or another. This bird is the best of the lot and he should give Rachel all she can handle.
It's a Bird
Pacific Classic
Del Mar's premier event looks just about as good as anything seen at Saratoga. It's a full field that looks pretty well matched. I kind of feel like the favorites could dominate this race and afterwords everyone will talk about how it was so obvious. At the same time the longshots could fill out the major places and that would have to be no great shock either. Not when you have quality horses like Parading and Informed at 10/1 and Misremembered at 12/1. I have a 20-20 statistical profile for this race and I've linked it below. It looks as though Rail Trip is the only perfect qualifier while there are 5 horses all tied for the second ranking. Rail Trip does look scary off the performance at Hollywood. If he goes close to that performance again he'll crush them all. Colonel John has to be respected but I think he's terrible value as the possible morning line favorite. I think Rail Trip is plainly a better horse. I'll use Awesome Gem in the mix beneath Rail Trip just because I think he could suck up into one of those minor places. He has been resurgent of late and he could have one more big effort in him. Einstein has to be heavily respected as well. His fortunes have fallen lately but on synthetics he might get some new life. I'll use Rail Trip on top with Awesome Gem, Colonel John, Einstein and Informed underneath. I respect Parading and I do think he'll improve this time but I just don't have room for him this time.
Rail Trip
Friday, August 21, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Alabama Stakes
I had thought of skipping the picks and analysis segment this weekend because I'm headed out for a bit of a vacation to Toronto this next week. I never like playing races when I'm not around to recap the results but this is an opportunity I've been waiting for since the spring and I can't pass on it. I think very highly of Milwaukee Appeal. She is not your typical Canadian filly. I think she's got the class and talent to run with any filly in North America outside Rachel Alexandra. Careless Jewel, another Canadian shipper, seems to have a massive speed advantage on paper but she got that fig on Delaware's quirky surface. Horses rarely repeat those efforts at Saratoga and this race is quite a bit longer than her last. A robust filly like Milwaukee Appeal will have no trouble with the distance and she should be able to deal easily with the American crowd coming out of the CCAO. That was not a very talented group and you don't have to be much better than ordinary to beat them.
Milwaukee Appeal
Sky Classic Stakes
Gio Ponti is not the only turf horse has undergone a renaissance this year. Canada's version of Gio Ponti is Rahy's Attorney. Always thought of as more of a miler Rahy's Attorney has simply turned into a devastating horse this year. The distance is a concern and normally I find myself going against horses like this. He'll be a fairly short price he should have more pace pressure than last time and he's got to win going 11f. But this time I'm not going to be rooting against the best horse. This time I hope to enjoy him fully. Good horses can step outside the box and do things that inferior horses can't. Rahy's Attorney may not be a horse for the ages but compared to the competition he's facing at Woodbine he might as well be Lure. I think he'll sit off the pace a bit this time and let Marlang dictate proceedings. I don't think Callaghan will be so eager to open on the field like he did last time I think he'll be a bit more patient. Marchfield and Champs Elysees will chase him again but as long as his rider is patient he should stay this distance just fine.
Rahy's Attorney
I had thought of skipping the picks and analysis segment this weekend because I'm headed out for a bit of a vacation to Toronto this next week. I never like playing races when I'm not around to recap the results but this is an opportunity I've been waiting for since the spring and I can't pass on it. I think very highly of Milwaukee Appeal. She is not your typical Canadian filly. I think she's got the class and talent to run with any filly in North America outside Rachel Alexandra. Careless Jewel, another Canadian shipper, seems to have a massive speed advantage on paper but she got that fig on Delaware's quirky surface. Horses rarely repeat those efforts at Saratoga and this race is quite a bit longer than her last. A robust filly like Milwaukee Appeal will have no trouble with the distance and she should be able to deal easily with the American crowd coming out of the CCAO. That was not a very talented group and you don't have to be much better than ordinary to beat them.
Milwaukee Appeal
Sky Classic Stakes
Gio Ponti is not the only turf horse has undergone a renaissance this year. Canada's version of Gio Ponti is Rahy's Attorney. Always thought of as more of a miler Rahy's Attorney has simply turned into a devastating horse this year. The distance is a concern and normally I find myself going against horses like this. He'll be a fairly short price he should have more pace pressure than last time and he's got to win going 11f. But this time I'm not going to be rooting against the best horse. This time I hope to enjoy him fully. Good horses can step outside the box and do things that inferior horses can't. Rahy's Attorney may not be a horse for the ages but compared to the competition he's facing at Woodbine he might as well be Lure. I think he'll sit off the pace a bit this time and let Marlang dictate proceedings. I don't think Callaghan will be so eager to open on the field like he did last time I think he'll be a bit more patient. Marchfield and Champs Elysees will chase him again but as long as his rider is patient he should stay this distance just fine.
Rahy's Attorney
Friday, August 07, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Whitney Handicap
If you don't recognize the excel sheet above it's the results of my 20-20 Profile for the Whitney Handicap. In brief the 20-20 is a statistical profile system that rates the current competitors against a model defined by past winners. You can easily see how the system rates the contenders so I won't go too much into it. Smooth Air is the obvious choice both statistically and to the naked eye. Commentator looks like he's not quite as sharp as he was in previous seasons when he won this race. In previous years he was also a perfect 20-20 qualifier and he had some big numbers but this year he looks past his best. Smooth Air should shake off his bridesmaid tag and move forward in his new barn. No offense to his prior connections but I love the job Chad Brown is doing with his charges. I know Macho Again is rated in the second tier for this race but I really don't like him. I've had a rough history with this horse, I never seem to read him right. I suppose he should be tossed into the exactas but I don't trust him. I do like Dry Martini to make some noise. I don't think he's up to beating Smooth Air but he is great at two turns and Tagg's stable has been hot at the Spa. He's the one I'd use primarily with Smooth Air but the Smooth Jazz colt lays over the field in my mind.
Smooth Air
Arlington Million
Gio Ponti should be favored in the Million and he's the top 20-20 choice as well. It seems like a bit of a waste to develop a system that gives you just the two favorites in Smooth Air and Gio Ponti but I think some of the value of the system is the fact that horses like Commentator and Einstein come out much worse than you'd think. To me that says stay focused on the clear choices and don't get distracted by the classy duo. Gio Ponti needs very little introduction, he hasn't lost on the grass this year and I don't think his luck will run out here. He's the best turf horse in the nation and as long as Presious Passion does not hijack the race with his crazy pace tactics I think he's the clear winner. Even if Presious Passion does take off I think Gio Ponti can catch him. The horses that have been chasing him lately like Banrock and Lauro are no where near the class of Gio Ponti. I think there is danger from Gloria de Campeao because he's got great tactical speed. I think he's the first horse to get to Presious Passion and perhaps the race simply comes down to how much ground Gio Ponti has to make up in the final quarter mile. If he is within three lengths he wins, if not I think Gloria de Campeao could be the one to spring the upset.
Gio Ponti
If you don't recognize the excel sheet above it's the results of my 20-20 Profile for the Whitney Handicap. In brief the 20-20 is a statistical profile system that rates the current competitors against a model defined by past winners. You can easily see how the system rates the contenders so I won't go too much into it. Smooth Air is the obvious choice both statistically and to the naked eye. Commentator looks like he's not quite as sharp as he was in previous seasons when he won this race. In previous years he was also a perfect 20-20 qualifier and he had some big numbers but this year he looks past his best. Smooth Air should shake off his bridesmaid tag and move forward in his new barn. No offense to his prior connections but I love the job Chad Brown is doing with his charges. I know Macho Again is rated in the second tier for this race but I really don't like him. I've had a rough history with this horse, I never seem to read him right. I suppose he should be tossed into the exactas but I don't trust him. I do like Dry Martini to make some noise. I don't think he's up to beating Smooth Air but he is great at two turns and Tagg's stable has been hot at the Spa. He's the one I'd use primarily with Smooth Air but the Smooth Jazz colt lays over the field in my mind.
Smooth Air
Arlington Million
Gio Ponti should be favored in the Million and he's the top 20-20 choice as well. It seems like a bit of a waste to develop a system that gives you just the two favorites in Smooth Air and Gio Ponti but I think some of the value of the system is the fact that horses like Commentator and Einstein come out much worse than you'd think. To me that says stay focused on the clear choices and don't get distracted by the classy duo. Gio Ponti needs very little introduction, he hasn't lost on the grass this year and I don't think his luck will run out here. He's the best turf horse in the nation and as long as Presious Passion does not hijack the race with his crazy pace tactics I think he's the clear winner. Even if Presious Passion does take off I think Gio Ponti can catch him. The horses that have been chasing him lately like Banrock and Lauro are no where near the class of Gio Ponti. I think there is danger from Gloria de Campeao because he's got great tactical speed. I think he's the first horse to get to Presious Passion and perhaps the race simply comes down to how much ground Gio Ponti has to make up in the final quarter mile. If he is within three lengths he wins, if not I think Gloria de Campeao could be the one to spring the upset.
Gio Ponti
Friday, July 31, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Jim Dandy Stakes
The Haskell may have most of the headliners in the 3yo division but the Jim Dandy is a far better race for a handicapper. Rachel Alexandra should have very little trouble with her opponents at Monmouth but it's genuinely difficult even coming up with a favorite for the Jim Dandy. There are seven horses in the race and I like five of them. In a race like this you will probably get a fair price on whomever you land on. I'm thinking of taking Charitable Man over the others. He ran one of the best maiden races of the summer at Saratoga last year and other than his Polytrack effort he has never run poorly. I thought he ran well enough to win the Belmont until the final furlong when the distance simply found him out. I don't think connections seriously view him as a contender for the BC Marathon so that lack of stamina won't really matter in the long run. He fully stay 9f which is what we're concerned with here. He also has excellent tactical speed which gives him a slight edge over the other horse I really like, Convocation. If Convocation were a publicly traded company you'd have to be buying into him now before his price gets out of control. His run of three races at Belmont has seen his stock rise considerably already but I think there is much more to come. If there is any horse really poised to have a "Tiznow" like second half of the year it's this horse. If he doesn't win a very nice stakes race before the year is out I'll be surprised. I'm a bit concerned that he'll be further off the pace than Charitable Man but then again horses have been coming from off the pace without too much trouble. I think I'll have to use both horses in this space. Kensei had his breakout race last time and I'm hoping that he regresses a little bit. Warrior's Reward has been an excuse horse for most of his life I think he'll run well but I don't want him for the win spot. Saratoga Sinner is likely just too fresh for this spot. He'll need a race or two and maybe a lighter field.
Charitable Man
Convocation
Fourstardave Handicap
It's hard to tell what the weather will be like this evening at Saratoga so figuring out the conditions for Sunday's will probably be tricky. But I will assume with the way it's raining today that soft or yielding conditions are likely. I think it's a critical issue because Cowboy Cal can win this race on a firm track but I think that more testing conditions play against him. I have been looking for a chance to play Kip Deville when he comes back to two turns and I think this is it. Soft conditions should not be a real problem, remember he won the BC Mile at Monmouth when the weather was worse than I've ever seen. I think the one turn configuration had more to do with his loss last time than the soft ground. It's hard to believe that this 6yo has never been to Saratoga but I think he'll settle in just fine. At his best he's the best horse in the race but I may hedge on him a little because of the other speed in here. Cosmonaut, Papa Bear and Cowboy Cal are all likely to keep close tabs on him and press him through fractions that may prove to be testing. I think the in form horse that will benefit from this is Justenuffhumor. He has never lost a grass race and he ought to sit a perfect trip in behind the speed. McLaughlin and Garcia are a potent combination and this horse has already mastered the allowance ranks in New York. It's a step up in class for him but it's the logical place to go. Connections have been really careful when placing him so I have to assume that he is more than up to this task.
Kip Deville
Justenuffhumor
The Haskell may have most of the headliners in the 3yo division but the Jim Dandy is a far better race for a handicapper. Rachel Alexandra should have very little trouble with her opponents at Monmouth but it's genuinely difficult even coming up with a favorite for the Jim Dandy. There are seven horses in the race and I like five of them. In a race like this you will probably get a fair price on whomever you land on. I'm thinking of taking Charitable Man over the others. He ran one of the best maiden races of the summer at Saratoga last year and other than his Polytrack effort he has never run poorly. I thought he ran well enough to win the Belmont until the final furlong when the distance simply found him out. I don't think connections seriously view him as a contender for the BC Marathon so that lack of stamina won't really matter in the long run. He fully stay 9f which is what we're concerned with here. He also has excellent tactical speed which gives him a slight edge over the other horse I really like, Convocation. If Convocation were a publicly traded company you'd have to be buying into him now before his price gets out of control. His run of three races at Belmont has seen his stock rise considerably already but I think there is much more to come. If there is any horse really poised to have a "Tiznow" like second half of the year it's this horse. If he doesn't win a very nice stakes race before the year is out I'll be surprised. I'm a bit concerned that he'll be further off the pace than Charitable Man but then again horses have been coming from off the pace without too much trouble. I think I'll have to use both horses in this space. Kensei had his breakout race last time and I'm hoping that he regresses a little bit. Warrior's Reward has been an excuse horse for most of his life I think he'll run well but I don't want him for the win spot. Saratoga Sinner is likely just too fresh for this spot. He'll need a race or two and maybe a lighter field.
Charitable Man
Convocation
Fourstardave Handicap
It's hard to tell what the weather will be like this evening at Saratoga so figuring out the conditions for Sunday's will probably be tricky. But I will assume with the way it's raining today that soft or yielding conditions are likely. I think it's a critical issue because Cowboy Cal can win this race on a firm track but I think that more testing conditions play against him. I have been looking for a chance to play Kip Deville when he comes back to two turns and I think this is it. Soft conditions should not be a real problem, remember he won the BC Mile at Monmouth when the weather was worse than I've ever seen. I think the one turn configuration had more to do with his loss last time than the soft ground. It's hard to believe that this 6yo has never been to Saratoga but I think he'll settle in just fine. At his best he's the best horse in the race but I may hedge on him a little because of the other speed in here. Cosmonaut, Papa Bear and Cowboy Cal are all likely to keep close tabs on him and press him through fractions that may prove to be testing. I think the in form horse that will benefit from this is Justenuffhumor. He has never lost a grass race and he ought to sit a perfect trip in behind the speed. McLaughlin and Garcia are a potent combination and this horse has already mastered the allowance ranks in New York. It's a step up in class for him but it's the logical place to go. Connections have been really careful when placing him so I have to assume that he is more than up to this task.
Kip Deville
Justenuffhumor
Friday, July 24, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Coaching Club American Oaks
I had a lot of confidence in Livin Lovin last week as she was set to take on older horses in the Delaware Handicap. This race is the same distance against a weaker bunch so it would make sense to keep the faith here. I've really liked this horse since her runner up effort in the Mazarine at Woodbine. The Acorn was a decent effort considering that she blew the break. This field is much lighter than the Acorn was. Livin Lovin could even wind up being a main pace factor. I think she'll have too much class for the rest of them. It would be unwise to ignore Wynning Ride however. Baffert has a good strike rate with the horses he sends east. Wynning Ride was not ready for Milwaukee Appeal in the Woodbine Oaks but I think Milwaukee Appeal would win this race easily. First time on a natural dirt surface has been a decent angle. I'm not a huge fan of Hightap although she does have a consistent efficiency about her. She and Casanova Move should be challenging for a spot on the board.
Livin Lovin
Nijinsky Stakes
This is going to be a very tough G-2 event, I have to say that I'm quite impressed with the quality that has been drawn. Six of the seven entrants are graded stakes winners, two are G-1 winners and another two are Canadian Classic winners. You don't find many G-2 races this deep. Champs Elysees returns to Woodbine after a successful escapade here last year. He was struggling in California and a trip to Woodbine got him back on the right track. This year he is struggling even more in California and Kentucky. The bettors will likely still come in for him but I'm skeptical. Rahy's Attorney has been a bear this season but I'm a little surprised that he went for this race instead of pursuing races for milers. He is the best miler at Woodbine. He has raced beyond 9f four times and has a second, two thirds and a fourth place finish to show for it. In grass races 9f or less he is 10-7-1-0. I think you have to oppose him but the scary part is that he has been in the form of his life recently. He ought to get a bit more pace pressure in here than he did in his last because Marlang is in the race. I actually love Marlang here because I think he was primed perfectly for a top effort. In his first race of the season he was entered in a mile race. He set the pace but Just Rushing, who is the second best miler on the grounds, was too quick for him in the final stages. Marlang is a plodder who needs more distance to be effective. He's is perfectly suited for the trip and his recent bullet shows that he's really ready for a prime effort. I am a bit worried about the pace because both he and Rahy's Attorney will want the lead but Marlang is legitimate at the distance while Rahy is suspect so I suspect Marlang will have things his way. Rahy's Attorney won't be able to stand a speed duel and the extended distance. If the pace does get a bit too hot I like Spice Route instead of Champs Elysees. They are similar in ability but Spice Route has been in much better form. He's a far more trustworthy horse. Marlang was quite a 3yo he could be even better as a 4yo.
Marlang
I had a lot of confidence in Livin Lovin last week as she was set to take on older horses in the Delaware Handicap. This race is the same distance against a weaker bunch so it would make sense to keep the faith here. I've really liked this horse since her runner up effort in the Mazarine at Woodbine. The Acorn was a decent effort considering that she blew the break. This field is much lighter than the Acorn was. Livin Lovin could even wind up being a main pace factor. I think she'll have too much class for the rest of them. It would be unwise to ignore Wynning Ride however. Baffert has a good strike rate with the horses he sends east. Wynning Ride was not ready for Milwaukee Appeal in the Woodbine Oaks but I think Milwaukee Appeal would win this race easily. First time on a natural dirt surface has been a decent angle. I'm not a huge fan of Hightap although she does have a consistent efficiency about her. She and Casanova Move should be challenging for a spot on the board.
Livin Lovin
Nijinsky Stakes
This is going to be a very tough G-2 event, I have to say that I'm quite impressed with the quality that has been drawn. Six of the seven entrants are graded stakes winners, two are G-1 winners and another two are Canadian Classic winners. You don't find many G-2 races this deep. Champs Elysees returns to Woodbine after a successful escapade here last year. He was struggling in California and a trip to Woodbine got him back on the right track. This year he is struggling even more in California and Kentucky. The bettors will likely still come in for him but I'm skeptical. Rahy's Attorney has been a bear this season but I'm a little surprised that he went for this race instead of pursuing races for milers. He is the best miler at Woodbine. He has raced beyond 9f four times and has a second, two thirds and a fourth place finish to show for it. In grass races 9f or less he is 10-7-1-0. I think you have to oppose him but the scary part is that he has been in the form of his life recently. He ought to get a bit more pace pressure in here than he did in his last because Marlang is in the race. I actually love Marlang here because I think he was primed perfectly for a top effort. In his first race of the season he was entered in a mile race. He set the pace but Just Rushing, who is the second best miler on the grounds, was too quick for him in the final stages. Marlang is a plodder who needs more distance to be effective. He's is perfectly suited for the trip and his recent bullet shows that he's really ready for a prime effort. I am a bit worried about the pace because both he and Rahy's Attorney will want the lead but Marlang is legitimate at the distance while Rahy is suspect so I suspect Marlang will have things his way. Rahy's Attorney won't be able to stand a speed duel and the extended distance. If the pace does get a bit too hot I like Spice Route instead of Champs Elysees. They are similar in ability but Spice Route has been in much better form. He's a far more trustworthy horse. Marlang was quite a 3yo he could be even better as a 4yo.
Marlang
Friday, July 17, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Virginia Derby
I shared the results of my 20-20 Profile for this race yesterday and given the fact that I developed the profile my handicapping thoughts are going to heavily influenced by it's results. Battle of Hastings is not a difficult horse to come up with on top. He's a tough and consistent little horse who does not look completely genuine at 10f but he should be good enough to get the job done. The scratch of Nicanor means that he'll be favored and he might even go as low as 2/1. He is not an overpowering horse but he consistently grinds out results. The Virginia Derby has often played to class and he's got a ton of class. I'll be interested to see what price Hold Me Back is offered at. He's a much better prospect for the Turf transition than stablemate Court Vision was last year and that one came up a nose short for the same trainer. Hold Me Back should be flying late and I do expect him to have some kind of impact. Lime Rickey is another closer that should be included in the bottom of your exotics. Straight Story has yet to run a poor race on the grass and his Colonial Turf Cup was a most interesting race indeed. Had he not been shifted out into the center of the track he logically would have benefited by a length or two. I'm not sure that it would make him a winner though since Battle of Hastings seems to idle a bit in front. He would have responded if he had seen him. Still Straight Story looms a major threat. I may also include Florentino on some tickets, not only because he ranked well in my profile but because I was very impressed with him earlier this spring when he came to Keeneland. I thought he would gallop his rivals off the track in the Transylvania but the soft ground made him come a bit unstuck. Back on firmer ground he was not to be caught in the Jefferson Cup. There is a good deal of pace in here on paper but I don't think anyone wants to get suicidal. I think the pace will be solid but it won't cook the speed. But Battle of Hastings could do even better here with a healthier pace to run at.
Battle of Hastings
Delaware Handicap
My play in this race hinges upon the buccaneering spirit of Steve Klesaris and Puglisi Racing. Their horse, Livin Lovin, is cross entered in the Delaware Handicap and the Delaware Oaks which is run the previous day. I think she would win both races but she'll be 2/1 in th Oaks and more like 7/1 in the Handicap because it's against older fillies. I happen to think that the Handicap is not a very tough race at all. Unbridled Belle is the horse to beat but how many times have we seen this horse go from world beater to money burner in back to back starts? Her last race was very impressive but that almost increases the confidence I have to go against her. She ran a huge race off a layoff and could be vulnerable to a regression. Acoma is the other threat in here but I think she'll flatten out going 10f on the main track. She might be able to get the distance better on the grass where she can reserve her energy and make on quick burst but the main track demands more speed earlier in the race and I think we'll see her move into contention but flatten out in the final furlong. Livin Lovin is another one of those Birdstone sophomores. She has never been this far but she is bred for the distance and she has been getting a lot of stamina building works. Those works are the main reason that I think she'll be in this race instead of the Oaks. As a 2yo Lovin Lovin showed remarkable promise. She has the ability to cruise near the pace and still accelerate quickly when asked. She might even have the most speed in this race and could find herself in front. She blew the break in the Acorn so you can discount that race although she still performed with credit. She has a win over the track and looks like excellent value to score an upset over her elders.
Livin Lovin
I shared the results of my 20-20 Profile for this race yesterday and given the fact that I developed the profile my handicapping thoughts are going to heavily influenced by it's results. Battle of Hastings is not a difficult horse to come up with on top. He's a tough and consistent little horse who does not look completely genuine at 10f but he should be good enough to get the job done. The scratch of Nicanor means that he'll be favored and he might even go as low as 2/1. He is not an overpowering horse but he consistently grinds out results. The Virginia Derby has often played to class and he's got a ton of class. I'll be interested to see what price Hold Me Back is offered at. He's a much better prospect for the Turf transition than stablemate Court Vision was last year and that one came up a nose short for the same trainer. Hold Me Back should be flying late and I do expect him to have some kind of impact. Lime Rickey is another closer that should be included in the bottom of your exotics. Straight Story has yet to run a poor race on the grass and his Colonial Turf Cup was a most interesting race indeed. Had he not been shifted out into the center of the track he logically would have benefited by a length or two. I'm not sure that it would make him a winner though since Battle of Hastings seems to idle a bit in front. He would have responded if he had seen him. Still Straight Story looms a major threat. I may also include Florentino on some tickets, not only because he ranked well in my profile but because I was very impressed with him earlier this spring when he came to Keeneland. I thought he would gallop his rivals off the track in the Transylvania but the soft ground made him come a bit unstuck. Back on firmer ground he was not to be caught in the Jefferson Cup. There is a good deal of pace in here on paper but I don't think anyone wants to get suicidal. I think the pace will be solid but it won't cook the speed. But Battle of Hastings could do even better here with a healthier pace to run at.
Battle of Hastings
Delaware Handicap
My play in this race hinges upon the buccaneering spirit of Steve Klesaris and Puglisi Racing. Their horse, Livin Lovin, is cross entered in the Delaware Handicap and the Delaware Oaks which is run the previous day. I think she would win both races but she'll be 2/1 in th Oaks and more like 7/1 in the Handicap because it's against older fillies. I happen to think that the Handicap is not a very tough race at all. Unbridled Belle is the horse to beat but how many times have we seen this horse go from world beater to money burner in back to back starts? Her last race was very impressive but that almost increases the confidence I have to go against her. She ran a huge race off a layoff and could be vulnerable to a regression. Acoma is the other threat in here but I think she'll flatten out going 10f on the main track. She might be able to get the distance better on the grass where she can reserve her energy and make on quick burst but the main track demands more speed earlier in the race and I think we'll see her move into contention but flatten out in the final furlong. Livin Lovin is another one of those Birdstone sophomores. She has never been this far but she is bred for the distance and she has been getting a lot of stamina building works. Those works are the main reason that I think she'll be in this race instead of the Oaks. As a 2yo Lovin Lovin showed remarkable promise. She has the ability to cruise near the pace and still accelerate quickly when asked. She might even have the most speed in this race and could find herself in front. She blew the break in the Acorn so you can discount that race although she still performed with credit. She has a win over the track and looks like excellent value to score an upset over her elders.
Livin Lovin
Friday, July 10, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Long Branch Stakes
It's far from the highest quality race being run this weekend but it is a very even contest. There are eight horses entered and none of them are over 6/1 on the morning line. It helps that the two horses with the least logical chances are coupled with better horses but we still have six horses that could easily wind up being winners. Papa Clem will be favored but I'm not sure that he's a great play in this race. I suspect his poor race in the Preakness was just a case of the wheels coming off after a tough spring but his recent work at Monmouth casts a doubt in my mind about his willingness to get over this track. He has often been a fast workhorse. At both Oaklawn and Santa Anita he zips in the mornings but he had much slower works at Churchill and Pimlico and he finished off the board in both of those affairs. He went back to Santa Anita and drilled a bullet after the Preakness but now at Monmouth he went slowly again. It's enough for me to think that I can get a better price elsewhere. Santana Six is a very interesting prospect to me. Other than a blowup at Churchill he's done very well in all his races. A lot of Ziot horses were doing very badly at Churchill in March and April. It's possible that the whole barn was out of tune. Things have turned around for Zito recently. In his prep for the Long Branch Santana Six ran a very good second behind Lord Justice who got loose on the lead. Santana Six was getting to him late and I figure he can go one better here. Rapid Redux or Despite the Odds may be inspired to keep Lord Justice company so the pace should be just a bit better for Santana Six. I love the bullet works over the tiring training track and Saratoga. Zito ships a lot of live horses off of strong works on that strip. I guess I also get Nowhere to Hide for the same money but I'm not sure that I'm that interested in his chances.
Santana Six
Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap
I really like Parading both in this spot and as a horse overall. He has become something entirely new and better this year after spending most of his career injured or in allowance company. He shows the benefits of giving horses time to develop. Generally I don't like east coast horses coming into big Californian events but I developed a bit of a statistical profile for this race based on results from past years and Parading is the only one that fits all the criteria. So he looks solid visually and he lines up historically as well. Sounds like a good selection to me. One of the biggest factors that may be overlooked in this race is the effectiveness of tactical speed. When this was a dirt race speed ruled, now that it's switched to synthetics speed is still king but most people assume it wouldn't be. Horses with early speed or good tactical speed have always done better than those without it. I'm not as high on Life Is Sweet, Big Booster or Dakota Phone for those reasons. Rail Trip is always dangerous but I think he finds this distance too far. I don't expect that anyone will leave him alone in the early stages. Two longer shots that I've taken a shine to are Magnum and Tres Borrachos. Back in 2006 people thought of Magnum as a possible challenger to Lava Man. He ran poorly in that Gold Cup and his career took a tailspin. He had a major injury that kept him out for a year and a half and then since coming back he's been out of the money 7 times in 9 starts. But I think he's shown enough talent to be a factor here. His race at Lone Star was better than it looked and Jonesboro has already come out of that race to win. He could pick up a piece. Tres Borrachos has also fallen on some hard times since winning the Swaps last summer. He actually hadn't run well since that day until his last allowance race. He looked like he had some life again. I'm hoping that he brings that form into this race just like his mini two race set at Hollywood last summer. I still like Parading but I'll use those two with him in some way.
Parading
It's far from the highest quality race being run this weekend but it is a very even contest. There are eight horses entered and none of them are over 6/1 on the morning line. It helps that the two horses with the least logical chances are coupled with better horses but we still have six horses that could easily wind up being winners. Papa Clem will be favored but I'm not sure that he's a great play in this race. I suspect his poor race in the Preakness was just a case of the wheels coming off after a tough spring but his recent work at Monmouth casts a doubt in my mind about his willingness to get over this track. He has often been a fast workhorse. At both Oaklawn and Santa Anita he zips in the mornings but he had much slower works at Churchill and Pimlico and he finished off the board in both of those affairs. He went back to Santa Anita and drilled a bullet after the Preakness but now at Monmouth he went slowly again. It's enough for me to think that I can get a better price elsewhere. Santana Six is a very interesting prospect to me. Other than a blowup at Churchill he's done very well in all his races. A lot of Ziot horses were doing very badly at Churchill in March and April. It's possible that the whole barn was out of tune. Things have turned around for Zito recently. In his prep for the Long Branch Santana Six ran a very good second behind Lord Justice who got loose on the lead. Santana Six was getting to him late and I figure he can go one better here. Rapid Redux or Despite the Odds may be inspired to keep Lord Justice company so the pace should be just a bit better for Santana Six. I love the bullet works over the tiring training track and Saratoga. Zito ships a lot of live horses off of strong works on that strip. I guess I also get Nowhere to Hide for the same money but I'm not sure that I'm that interested in his chances.
Santana Six
Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap
I really like Parading both in this spot and as a horse overall. He has become something entirely new and better this year after spending most of his career injured or in allowance company. He shows the benefits of giving horses time to develop. Generally I don't like east coast horses coming into big Californian events but I developed a bit of a statistical profile for this race based on results from past years and Parading is the only one that fits all the criteria. So he looks solid visually and he lines up historically as well. Sounds like a good selection to me. One of the biggest factors that may be overlooked in this race is the effectiveness of tactical speed. When this was a dirt race speed ruled, now that it's switched to synthetics speed is still king but most people assume it wouldn't be. Horses with early speed or good tactical speed have always done better than those without it. I'm not as high on Life Is Sweet, Big Booster or Dakota Phone for those reasons. Rail Trip is always dangerous but I think he finds this distance too far. I don't expect that anyone will leave him alone in the early stages. Two longer shots that I've taken a shine to are Magnum and Tres Borrachos. Back in 2006 people thought of Magnum as a possible challenger to Lava Man. He ran poorly in that Gold Cup and his career took a tailspin. He had a major injury that kept him out for a year and a half and then since coming back he's been out of the money 7 times in 9 starts. But I think he's shown enough talent to be a factor here. His race at Lone Star was better than it looked and Jonesboro has already come out of that race to win. He could pick up a piece. Tres Borrachos has also fallen on some hard times since winning the Swaps last summer. He actually hadn't run well since that day until his last allowance race. He looked like he had some life again. I'm hoping that he brings that form into this race just like his mini two race set at Hollywood last summer. I still like Parading but I'll use those two with him in some way.
Parading
Saturday, July 04, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Suburban Handicap
This races quality has fallen off quite a bit over the years but I'm actually not so disappointed with a playable race as opposed to the all but walkovers horses like Skip Away and Mineshaft got. There are only two horses in this race with the potential to really be somebody, It's a Bird and Asiatic Boy. It's a Bird has already had a decent season and I see this race as a turning point. Either he wins and continues on his way to becoming one of the best older horses in the country or he loses and he's just like everyone else in this weak crop. I don't think I'd really consider playing against him were it not for the fact that this is a one turn race. I suspect that he's got a real preference for two turn races or maybe it's just the distance of two turn races that he likes. However slim it's a bit of something for contrarions to hold onto. Asiatic Boy is good enough to win and a must use in exotics but I don't trust him. Too often in his career he has declined to show up. The rest of this horses in the race should be equals at 10/1. They have outsiders chances, all of them. None are particularly great and none are that bad. If It's a Bird is going to falter I'd rather be riding on a price horse rather than someone like Dry Martini at 6/1. Stud Muffin fits my criteria for a price horse very well. He loves the track when it's dry and he has a very consistent record. He has even been borderline brilliant on occasion against state-breds. It's a step up in class but I don't think his best race is too much worse than anyone else's. His trainer is even sneaky good at some of these class step ups. A dry track makes him very live and lately he's been falling victim to loose speed but I don't think that's as much of a worry here.
Stud Muffin
Firecracker Handicap
Between Thorn Song, Mr. Sidney, Seaspeak and Tizdejavu there is a good deal of talent for a G-2 race. Don't be too shocked if a few of these horses end up looking like good bets in the BC Mile. Thorn Song is tough and lovable but in my opinion he's unplayable. Inca King and Tizdejavu both have good speed and have proven to be quite proficient on Churchill's sod. I think it's a good bet to assume that one of them will go with Thorn Song and that will spoil the chances of the 9/5 favorite. I'm going to play against the chalk with Seaspeak. I know his figures have been light but I think he might be classier than he looks. Cowboy Cal is no slouch on the grass and Seaspeak managed to finish ahead of him at Keeneland although he was DQ'ed in that effort I think the talent is there. Visually he was very impressive at Lone Star and I think he can use his quick burst of pace to good effect if he gets the stalking trip I suspect he will.
Seaspeak
Tom Fool Handicap
I think this is the tasty match up of the weekend. Fabulous Strike against Munnings with Driven By Success as a flavor adding side dish. Three top class horses at the top of their game and Fabulous Strike has to give 11lbs to Munnings and 8lbs to Driven By Success. I almost never talk about the burdens of imposts but it may be a factor here given the great disparity between Fabulous Strike and his competition. I think the distance of this race is key. No one beats Fabulous Strike at 6f if he's on his game. He can take the impost, he can take early pressure and he can get to the line quicker than anyone else. 7f is a different story, he has never won a race beyond 6f and while he has run very good races at 7f I think he's a shade below his best. Driven By Success does his best work on the pace and I expect him to put Fabulous Strike under all kinds of pressure. Meanwhile Munnings should be sitting in behind them praying that they go as fast as possible. I see Fabulous Strike turning back Driven By Success but Munnings will have had the run of the race and should get to the favorite late. Munnings always hinted at superb ability. I think we get a taste of that here. He could not have been more impressive in the Woody Stephens. That race still blows me away. I think if he runs back to that form he can beat Fabulous Strike at 7f.
Munnings
Triple Bend Handicap
It's a full weekend of juicy races and perhaps none are more juicy than the Triple Bend. You don't usually get 14 entrants in a Californian stakes race but I think the G-1 status is a major draw. Zensational is the hype horse and he will be the target. While I think he will definitely be the best horse to emerge from this group I think he's vulnerable on his first major step up at a distance that is probably too long for him. I've had a bit of a horse players crush on Noble Court. I thought he was a good bet in all his 4 starts last year and this year. I think he happens to be a great bet in this particular race. His form probably deserves favoritism but he's unlikely to be favorite and he might even be 5/1 because of the field size. He's a hard closing son of a gun that will likely only appear on the screen late but I think he should get a good enough pace to run at.
Noble Court
American Oaks Invitational Stakes
Like the Triple Bend I see this race as a good opportunity to back a very good horse that will likely be at much longer odds than she would normally be. I think Gozzip Girl is special. There are a ton of other horses I respect. Puttanesca, Apple Charlotte, Well Monied, Mrs Kipling and even Nan are all very good horses. But I'm probably just looking to use them in some way with Gozzip Girl. I have been hugely impressed with Albertrani's filly. She has looked good while winning but she has also displayed the class and maturity to adapt. She came from well back in her stakes at Gulfstream but then led them from pillar to post at Belmont. She's fine with firm or yielding ground, she even almost won a G-1 race on polytrack. I think she has the potential to be Wait A While type caliber. This race is her first big chance to prove that. If she wins here she'll be less than 2/1 from now until the Breeders' Cup. Last chance to get a decent price on a filly who probably shouldn't be a decent price.
Gozzip Girl
This races quality has fallen off quite a bit over the years but I'm actually not so disappointed with a playable race as opposed to the all but walkovers horses like Skip Away and Mineshaft got. There are only two horses in this race with the potential to really be somebody, It's a Bird and Asiatic Boy. It's a Bird has already had a decent season and I see this race as a turning point. Either he wins and continues on his way to becoming one of the best older horses in the country or he loses and he's just like everyone else in this weak crop. I don't think I'd really consider playing against him were it not for the fact that this is a one turn race. I suspect that he's got a real preference for two turn races or maybe it's just the distance of two turn races that he likes. However slim it's a bit of something for contrarions to hold onto. Asiatic Boy is good enough to win and a must use in exotics but I don't trust him. Too often in his career he has declined to show up. The rest of this horses in the race should be equals at 10/1. They have outsiders chances, all of them. None are particularly great and none are that bad. If It's a Bird is going to falter I'd rather be riding on a price horse rather than someone like Dry Martini at 6/1. Stud Muffin fits my criteria for a price horse very well. He loves the track when it's dry and he has a very consistent record. He has even been borderline brilliant on occasion against state-breds. It's a step up in class but I don't think his best race is too much worse than anyone else's. His trainer is even sneaky good at some of these class step ups. A dry track makes him very live and lately he's been falling victim to loose speed but I don't think that's as much of a worry here.
Stud Muffin
Firecracker Handicap
Between Thorn Song, Mr. Sidney, Seaspeak and Tizdejavu there is a good deal of talent for a G-2 race. Don't be too shocked if a few of these horses end up looking like good bets in the BC Mile. Thorn Song is tough and lovable but in my opinion he's unplayable. Inca King and Tizdejavu both have good speed and have proven to be quite proficient on Churchill's sod. I think it's a good bet to assume that one of them will go with Thorn Song and that will spoil the chances of the 9/5 favorite. I'm going to play against the chalk with Seaspeak. I know his figures have been light but I think he might be classier than he looks. Cowboy Cal is no slouch on the grass and Seaspeak managed to finish ahead of him at Keeneland although he was DQ'ed in that effort I think the talent is there. Visually he was very impressive at Lone Star and I think he can use his quick burst of pace to good effect if he gets the stalking trip I suspect he will.
Seaspeak
Tom Fool Handicap
I think this is the tasty match up of the weekend. Fabulous Strike against Munnings with Driven By Success as a flavor adding side dish. Three top class horses at the top of their game and Fabulous Strike has to give 11lbs to Munnings and 8lbs to Driven By Success. I almost never talk about the burdens of imposts but it may be a factor here given the great disparity between Fabulous Strike and his competition. I think the distance of this race is key. No one beats Fabulous Strike at 6f if he's on his game. He can take the impost, he can take early pressure and he can get to the line quicker than anyone else. 7f is a different story, he has never won a race beyond 6f and while he has run very good races at 7f I think he's a shade below his best. Driven By Success does his best work on the pace and I expect him to put Fabulous Strike under all kinds of pressure. Meanwhile Munnings should be sitting in behind them praying that they go as fast as possible. I see Fabulous Strike turning back Driven By Success but Munnings will have had the run of the race and should get to the favorite late. Munnings always hinted at superb ability. I think we get a taste of that here. He could not have been more impressive in the Woody Stephens. That race still blows me away. I think if he runs back to that form he can beat Fabulous Strike at 7f.
Munnings
Triple Bend Handicap
It's a full weekend of juicy races and perhaps none are more juicy than the Triple Bend. You don't usually get 14 entrants in a Californian stakes race but I think the G-1 status is a major draw. Zensational is the hype horse and he will be the target. While I think he will definitely be the best horse to emerge from this group I think he's vulnerable on his first major step up at a distance that is probably too long for him. I've had a bit of a horse players crush on Noble Court. I thought he was a good bet in all his 4 starts last year and this year. I think he happens to be a great bet in this particular race. His form probably deserves favoritism but he's unlikely to be favorite and he might even be 5/1 because of the field size. He's a hard closing son of a gun that will likely only appear on the screen late but I think he should get a good enough pace to run at.
Noble Court
American Oaks Invitational Stakes
Like the Triple Bend I see this race as a good opportunity to back a very good horse that will likely be at much longer odds than she would normally be. I think Gozzip Girl is special. There are a ton of other horses I respect. Puttanesca, Apple Charlotte, Well Monied, Mrs Kipling and even Nan are all very good horses. But I'm probably just looking to use them in some way with Gozzip Girl. I have been hugely impressed with Albertrani's filly. She has looked good while winning but she has also displayed the class and maturity to adapt. She came from well back in her stakes at Gulfstream but then led them from pillar to post at Belmont. She's fine with firm or yielding ground, she even almost won a G-1 race on polytrack. I think she has the potential to be Wait A While type caliber. This race is her first big chance to prove that. If she wins here she'll be less than 2/1 from now until the Breeders' Cup. Last chance to get a decent price on a filly who probably shouldn't be a decent price.
Gozzip Girl
Friday, June 26, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Iowa Derby
This race has more or less attracted the third tier of sophomore talent. The favorite is Terrain and he's winless in his last 6 starts. He might have the most class based on the horses he has been losing to but he's nothing to be scared of. In fact I wouldn't laugh off the chances of any horse in this race. I am naturally drawn to the Asmussen pair because they seem odd to me. Uno Mas is winless in 6 starts this year and gets the local rider Ocampo but he's 4/1. Soul Warrior gets the everyday stable #1 Bridgmohan who flies in to ride this 15/1 shot who is coming off a nice win at Churchill. I think I like Soul Warrior quite a bit in what promises to be a slow paced event. No one has dedicated speed but Soul Warrior looked like he found new life when he flashed some speed last time out. I don't think he was ready for Graded Stakes company when Asmussen rushed him into the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby but this is a class level he should be able to handle. Soul Warrior offers good value in this Derby. Another horse I really like is Conchacer. His connections obviously thought of him as more of a sprinter but in his first route he performed quite well. I think they sent a clear a bit too early and it left him exposed. Corbett rides him back and will surely have last race in his mind when he plots his move. I'm not really sure enough about this race to take a strong stand with one or two horses. In a multi-race wager I'd spread myself deeply but if I'm just looking for a horse in the win pool I'd like to put it on Soul Warrior and hope for a big race.
Soul Warrior
Iowa Sprint Handicap
I think the morning line odds maker is right when he makes Silver Edition, Native Ruler and Bold Start the top 3 choices. I know Semaphore Man and Sok Sok are close behind them on the odds board but I think the race will be decided among the top 3. No one is that great in this race but most of these horses are very consistent. I like Native Ruler more than the rest of the top trio. He's a winner. In fact he's only lost one of his last 9 dirt sprints. He's a consistent sprinting machine who has already shown an affinity for this racetrack. Connections seem to be trying not squeeze him dry with a hard early campaign. He should be fresh for this race and it could serve as a springboard into Graded Stakes company.
Native Ruler
Cornhusker Handicap
I've been waiting to play Victory Pete on a traditional dirt track ever since last spring when he made a brief but speedy flash on the triple crown trail. At the time I thought he looked like a dirt horse and this is the best chance to get a good price on him for the move. He has decent form on Turf and Synthetic, enough to show that he's still a runner. His early speed has been toned down a bit which is a good thing because a lot of horses in this race can run from the gate. I look for Victory Pete to get a nice stalking trip a few lengths back from a healthy pace. If he handles the dirt from there he should be good enough. I also think there is some value in using Stonehouse. take out the Turf and Synthetic races from his running lines and his record on dirt looks fabulous. 4 wins and 2 seconds in his last 7 dirt starts. He seems to go well on any track. The only reason he isn't my primary choice is because there is a lot of speed in the race and he is unlikely to back off from his inside berth. He pretty much needs to go after this one early, maybe the others will back off knowing he'll be sent but I can't have much confidence in him. Not because of his form but solely because of the pace.
Victory Pete
This race has more or less attracted the third tier of sophomore talent. The favorite is Terrain and he's winless in his last 6 starts. He might have the most class based on the horses he has been losing to but he's nothing to be scared of. In fact I wouldn't laugh off the chances of any horse in this race. I am naturally drawn to the Asmussen pair because they seem odd to me. Uno Mas is winless in 6 starts this year and gets the local rider Ocampo but he's 4/1. Soul Warrior gets the everyday stable #1 Bridgmohan who flies in to ride this 15/1 shot who is coming off a nice win at Churchill. I think I like Soul Warrior quite a bit in what promises to be a slow paced event. No one has dedicated speed but Soul Warrior looked like he found new life when he flashed some speed last time out. I don't think he was ready for Graded Stakes company when Asmussen rushed him into the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby but this is a class level he should be able to handle. Soul Warrior offers good value in this Derby. Another horse I really like is Conchacer. His connections obviously thought of him as more of a sprinter but in his first route he performed quite well. I think they sent a clear a bit too early and it left him exposed. Corbett rides him back and will surely have last race in his mind when he plots his move. I'm not really sure enough about this race to take a strong stand with one or two horses. In a multi-race wager I'd spread myself deeply but if I'm just looking for a horse in the win pool I'd like to put it on Soul Warrior and hope for a big race.
Soul Warrior
Iowa Sprint Handicap
I think the morning line odds maker is right when he makes Silver Edition, Native Ruler and Bold Start the top 3 choices. I know Semaphore Man and Sok Sok are close behind them on the odds board but I think the race will be decided among the top 3. No one is that great in this race but most of these horses are very consistent. I like Native Ruler more than the rest of the top trio. He's a winner. In fact he's only lost one of his last 9 dirt sprints. He's a consistent sprinting machine who has already shown an affinity for this racetrack. Connections seem to be trying not squeeze him dry with a hard early campaign. He should be fresh for this race and it could serve as a springboard into Graded Stakes company.
Native Ruler
Cornhusker Handicap
I've been waiting to play Victory Pete on a traditional dirt track ever since last spring when he made a brief but speedy flash on the triple crown trail. At the time I thought he looked like a dirt horse and this is the best chance to get a good price on him for the move. He has decent form on Turf and Synthetic, enough to show that he's still a runner. His early speed has been toned down a bit which is a good thing because a lot of horses in this race can run from the gate. I look for Victory Pete to get a nice stalking trip a few lengths back from a healthy pace. If he handles the dirt from there he should be good enough. I also think there is some value in using Stonehouse. take out the Turf and Synthetic races from his running lines and his record on dirt looks fabulous. 4 wins and 2 seconds in his last 7 dirt starts. He seems to go well on any track. The only reason he isn't my primary choice is because there is a lot of speed in the race and he is unlikely to back off from his inside berth. He pretty much needs to go after this one early, maybe the others will back off knowing he'll be sent but I can't have much confidence in him. Not because of his form but solely because of the pace.
Victory Pete
Friday, June 12, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Monmouth Stakes
One thing I've noticed about my handicapping is that I've really not done very well in Turf races aside from flat mile races on the grass. As a consequence I'm going to focus a bit more on main track races but before I do I just couldn't resist the temptation to weigh in on this tasty encounter. 6 of the 9 entrants have shown the form necessary to win this race so I suspect the betting public will be somewhat fragmented with their support. Grand Couturier is the horse with the most accomplishments but he is 0 for 2 on this course and prefers more distance. Presious Passion is in the form of his life but I suspect that he also prefers another furlong or so. Strike A Deal went down by a head in the United Nations over this course last year to Presious Passion but I suspect the shorter distance gives him an advantage. He let me down with his 6th place finish in the Dixie but he still ran a good race for a seasonal debut. The figures suggest that it was not far off his lifetime best in fact. Most horses these days are trained to improve in their second start off the bench. Improvement may just see Strike A Deal crush this field like he did to his Knickerbocker rivals. He also gets Lopez back in the saddle and while most people consider that a negative jockey switch from Velasquez, Lopez has actually conjured the two best career performances out of Strike A Deal.
Strike A Deal
Fleur de Lis Handicap
I see this race coming down to three horses: Santa Teresita, Miss Isella and Distinctive Dixie. All three of them have many positive attributes going in their favor. Distinctive Dixie is a new horse since becoming a dirt router. Only Euphony has managed to beat her. Dollase is a sharp spotter and his horses often surprise when stepping up in class. She has good tactical speed and will likely be pressing Swift Temper from the outset. I'm not sure how good she'll prove to be but I think she definitely merits some consideration if the crowd lets her price drift. Miss Isella has never been beaten in a two turn route on the dirt. She also has a sterling record at Churchill. My question with her has always been how good is she really. I know she beat One Caroline last time and that one looks like a serious filly but it was in the slop. That may have moved her up a bit. Having Borel in the saddle is a big advantage. She has never been worse than 4th in 9 starts with Borel and has never been better than 4th in 5 starts with all other jockey's. I suppose she's comfortable on the fence. I just don't know about her, although I respect her as a possible winner something about her just doesn't sit right. I think I'll settle for Santa Teresita. I successfully went against her in the Sixty Sails Handicap but I got a bit lucky that day and I think she'll like CD more than Hawthorne. While most fillies in this race have career best Beyer's of 96, a 96 is a bit of an under performance for Santa Teresita. This filly is far more brilliant than the rest of them. I don't know what the price will be but I hope it's around 5/2.
Santa Teresita
Stephen Foster Handicap
I suspect Einstein will be over bet as the hype horse in this race. He has every chance but he's no lock. I considered many different ways to go in this race but I eventually landed on Researcher. He has been running some big races since last fall and the only time he failed was the last time I picked him. I really don't know what happened in the Stymie but I think people who see his running lines will allow that race to scare them off a bit. The last time he was away from Charles Town he got crushed. But the start before his Stymie debacle he earned a very progressive looking win in the Queen's County. I don't think this horse is just a bush league maven. He's got great tactical speed and I think he'll need to put it to good use to get to Finallymadeit. Many people underestimate this horse. He's a very tough nut. Aside from the occasional blow up performance he's had some great form. I think they'll let him go on the front end. Alphabet Magic doesn't have the class to seriously push him and Borel on Researcher will likely be more concerned with Einstein and Asiatic Boy behind him. Like the Donn Handicap I see Finallymadeit nearly pulling off the trick here. Einstein is good enough to win but dirt has never been his best game. He is in the form of his life but I see him as poor value. Asiatic Boy could easily be as good as Einstein but he'll be 7/2 instead of even money. Asiatic Boy is a wild card, at one point I would have said he was a shoe in to be a star in America but that was in 2007. His past races have seen his star fall a bit even though he has managed two wins in his last 6 races. I don't think he's as good as he once was but Lasix may perk him up. Bullsbay is a solid course and conditions lover but I just feel he's a touch out of his class. He's a grinder who isn't as good at grinding as Einstein is. I see little cause to play him except for on the bottom of trifecta's. So it's Researcher for me but I'll keep a close eye on Finallymadeit as well.
Researcher
One thing I've noticed about my handicapping is that I've really not done very well in Turf races aside from flat mile races on the grass. As a consequence I'm going to focus a bit more on main track races but before I do I just couldn't resist the temptation to weigh in on this tasty encounter. 6 of the 9 entrants have shown the form necessary to win this race so I suspect the betting public will be somewhat fragmented with their support. Grand Couturier is the horse with the most accomplishments but he is 0 for 2 on this course and prefers more distance. Presious Passion is in the form of his life but I suspect that he also prefers another furlong or so. Strike A Deal went down by a head in the United Nations over this course last year to Presious Passion but I suspect the shorter distance gives him an advantage. He let me down with his 6th place finish in the Dixie but he still ran a good race for a seasonal debut. The figures suggest that it was not far off his lifetime best in fact. Most horses these days are trained to improve in their second start off the bench. Improvement may just see Strike A Deal crush this field like he did to his Knickerbocker rivals. He also gets Lopez back in the saddle and while most people consider that a negative jockey switch from Velasquez, Lopez has actually conjured the two best career performances out of Strike A Deal.
Strike A Deal
Fleur de Lis Handicap
I see this race coming down to three horses: Santa Teresita, Miss Isella and Distinctive Dixie. All three of them have many positive attributes going in their favor. Distinctive Dixie is a new horse since becoming a dirt router. Only Euphony has managed to beat her. Dollase is a sharp spotter and his horses often surprise when stepping up in class. She has good tactical speed and will likely be pressing Swift Temper from the outset. I'm not sure how good she'll prove to be but I think she definitely merits some consideration if the crowd lets her price drift. Miss Isella has never been beaten in a two turn route on the dirt. She also has a sterling record at Churchill. My question with her has always been how good is she really. I know she beat One Caroline last time and that one looks like a serious filly but it was in the slop. That may have moved her up a bit. Having Borel in the saddle is a big advantage. She has never been worse than 4th in 9 starts with Borel and has never been better than 4th in 5 starts with all other jockey's. I suppose she's comfortable on the fence. I just don't know about her, although I respect her as a possible winner something about her just doesn't sit right. I think I'll settle for Santa Teresita. I successfully went against her in the Sixty Sails Handicap but I got a bit lucky that day and I think she'll like CD more than Hawthorne. While most fillies in this race have career best Beyer's of 96, a 96 is a bit of an under performance for Santa Teresita. This filly is far more brilliant than the rest of them. I don't know what the price will be but I hope it's around 5/2.
Santa Teresita
Stephen Foster Handicap
I suspect Einstein will be over bet as the hype horse in this race. He has every chance but he's no lock. I considered many different ways to go in this race but I eventually landed on Researcher. He has been running some big races since last fall and the only time he failed was the last time I picked him. I really don't know what happened in the Stymie but I think people who see his running lines will allow that race to scare them off a bit. The last time he was away from Charles Town he got crushed. But the start before his Stymie debacle he earned a very progressive looking win in the Queen's County. I don't think this horse is just a bush league maven. He's got great tactical speed and I think he'll need to put it to good use to get to Finallymadeit. Many people underestimate this horse. He's a very tough nut. Aside from the occasional blow up performance he's had some great form. I think they'll let him go on the front end. Alphabet Magic doesn't have the class to seriously push him and Borel on Researcher will likely be more concerned with Einstein and Asiatic Boy behind him. Like the Donn Handicap I see Finallymadeit nearly pulling off the trick here. Einstein is good enough to win but dirt has never been his best game. He is in the form of his life but I see him as poor value. Asiatic Boy could easily be as good as Einstein but he'll be 7/2 instead of even money. Asiatic Boy is a wild card, at one point I would have said he was a shoe in to be a star in America but that was in 2007. His past races have seen his star fall a bit even though he has managed two wins in his last 6 races. I don't think he's as good as he once was but Lasix may perk him up. Bullsbay is a solid course and conditions lover but I just feel he's a touch out of his class. He's a grinder who isn't as good at grinding as Einstein is. I see little cause to play him except for on the bottom of trifecta's. So it's Researcher for me but I'll keep a close eye on Finallymadeit as well.
Researcher
Friday, June 05, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
True North Handicap
A single is a great way to start off any Pick 6 and I think race gives us a great chance to single. Fabulous Strike is my best bet on the card, I just hope Benny The Bull stays in to keep his price above even money. I've heard some people saying that Fabulous Strike is past his best. I think that's ridiculous. His last two races have been at 7f where he is far more exposed. He has never won a race at 7f, he simply doesn't have the stamina but at 6f he is a monster. Since breaking his maiden he's had 12 6f races on traditional dirt and has a 12-9-2-0 record. He has been fabulous at Belmont as well. The other speed in this race doesn't bother me at all. I remember the Vosburgh two years ago, that race had a lot more speed than this one but he ran those horses into the ground and drew off by nearly 6. He still has that kind of form in him and even though Benny The Bull is one scary dude on his best day Fabulous Strike will be gone before Benny gets in gear. Desert Key is a horse I love and will cheer for but I can't see him beating Fabulous Strike on current form. Two Step Salsa has an outsiders chance based on his excellent recent form but he also has never shown the kind of pace necessary to win this. At 7f he might just become the pick but not at 6f. This race belongs to Fabulous Strike.
Fabulous Strike
Just A Game Stakes
I think this is the first chance on the card to really get interesting and take a stand against a heavy favorite. Everyone knows that Forever Together can win this race and she will be 4/5 and a single on many tickets. I can see some vulnerability though and the payoff for being a contrarian could be big. Forever Together has only lost two turf races, both losses came in one turn races on large, deep courses namely Belmont and Woodbine. Quicker, sharper courses have been meat and drink to her, she never looked like losing those ones. She does have a win at Arlington which is a deeper course like Belmont but it was a two turn race and she earned the lowest Turf Beyer figure of her career. This may be the only chance to get Forever Together beaten this year. The horse I like is Modern Look. Bobby Frankel knows a thing or two about grass fillies and I think he sent her out east to try and find softer courses than she'd get in California. In Europe she always preferred some cut in the ground and her North American debut was okay but not great. She should improve vastly here and will get a perfect trip behind the deliberate pace of Raw Silk. I might use Caribbean Sunset as well just because I think the mile suits her well and a lot of transplanted Europeans don't hit the heights in their first start. She should be better this time and being better means being probably good enough to win. I love Europeans first off the plane for a European trainer but the ones that come here to stay and have plenty of time stateside before their first race often take a race or two to get going. Captain's Lover has some interesting form but she is exactly the kind of horse I was just talking about. It's her first race in North America but she is a transplant for Pletcher. I'd use her defensively but I think she'll need a race. Modern Look should adore the ground, the course and the pace. She should also be improved off her last effort she's the pick to see the champions colors lowered.
Modern Look
Woody Stephens Stakes
What a race this is. It's truly a shame that Regal Ransom is coupled in here with a horse I like because I was looking forward to not using him in any way. Unfortunately Everyday Heroes is far too good to ignore. I think Sheikh Mohammed may have bought himself a real runner in this son of Awesome Again. He has never been beaten and he is bred to appreciate stretching out. I don't usually like horses that win impressively while drifting badly but he was just so impressive I can't overlook him. He should get a perfect stalking trip and be right in the hunt. His morning preparation for this event was a sizzling 4f. In case you haven't gotten this impression already I definitely feel that Everyday Heroes is very dangerous. He's not the horse I really want to play in this race though. I've been waiting for Munnings to turn up in a spot like this since last summer. His comeback effort on Derby day was good but I think he'll be better on a fast track. Munnings has some flashy ability of his own and I think Pletcher has him nicely tuned for this race. He's the play I just hope Everyday Heroes isn't too much of a freak for him. Triumphant Flight and Hello Broadway are both good plays underneath. They would be a bit of a shock as winners but both have solid sprinting credentials and long prices. That's an excellent blend for a nice exacta under a logical horse.
Munnings
Acorn Stakes
This is the second time on the card that I'm going with interesting over obvious. The reason is because I don't like Justwhistledixie at all. Forever Together might be vulnerable but I still think she can win. I don't think Justwhistledixie can win. I think her Gulfstream performances were overrated. Only one horse she has beaten all year has come back to win next time out and that was Shared Account who managed to take a slow allowance. Her form is overrated and the Acorn is where the summer batch of fillies usually start to emerge. I loved Livin Lovin as a 2yo. I thought she showed G-1 type acceleration. Normally I don't like taking a horse off such a long layoff in a G-1 but the price will be excellent and the competition not all that stiff. She really doesn't have to be much better than she was as a 2yo to win. If she has trained on at all she could waltz away with this. The layoff is a concern so I will hedge a bit with a few others in the Pick 6 and also with Funny Moon in the win pool. Funny Moon is something of a rarity this spring. She actually improved her Beyer Speed Figures after coming away from Gulfstream. Don't know if you've noticed but very few horses have looked better in their first start away from Gulfstream than they did at Gulfstream itself. I think a lot of the figures and form were overrated. But here is a talented dirt filly from a turf barn that is getting better with each race. After seeing her last race I pencilled her in as a Mother Goose filly because I think 9f will be perfect but she's no slouch at 8f. She's built more like a solid bodied router and she doesn't have the lightning turn of foot that Livin Lovin does but she has current form and the race sets up well for her. These two fillies look like they offer a chance to make a nice score.
Livin Lovin
Funny Moon
Manhattan Handicap
A big problem for many handicappers is that they become married to losers that flatter to deceive. For me that horse is Court Vision. I've touted him in all three of his races this year and he just has a pair of third place finishes to show for it. I think this is finally the spot where he comes good though. 10f is a better distance for him than 9f and he comes back to the course where he earned his best career performance in my opinion. The Jamaica may have been just a G-2 for 3yo's but it was no easy race. In fact 3 horses from the Jamaica are this Manhattan. Gio Ponti looked like the more logical play but Court Vision was breathing fire that day as he scythed down the even money favorite. He looked like he was born for the course. He has to deal with old rivals Gio Ponti and Cowboy Cal again but the extra furlong should be the deciding factor. I think Gio Ponti is the best miler in the nation but this race is too far for him. Class may see him stick around for a place but he's a bad gamble because he's clearly a miler. Cowboy Cal is one of the toughest horses in America but 10f is a stretch for him and ease in the ground will make it all the more stamina sapping. He's hard to leave out of the exotics but he's not a winner for my money. The overlooked horse in this race might be Cosmonaut. This 7yo warrior has the reputation of a loser, probably because he is routinely well backed but is only 8 for 33 lifetime. He's burnt a lot of money in his time. But I like him here for a few reasons. First of all the competition is weaker than what he's faced much of his career. He was 4th in the 07' Manhattan but that race featured English Channel and an in form Better Talk Now. He was only beaten by 3/4 of a length on that day. Secondly I think he likes ease in the ground. In 10 races on less than firm courses he has 4 wins which is way above his normal winning percentage. Also included in that group was a third in the BC Mile which was way beyond his usual level of performance. Thirdly I think he just adores Belmont Park. He has a massive 103 average Beyer figure in stakes races at Belmont. More than half the horses in this race can't even run that fast on their best day let alone as an average. He also has good form at Arlington which I consider to be a similar course. Cosmonaut may not be as young as he once was but he is still just as good and this race is a nice setup for him.
Court Vision
Cosmonaut
Belmont Stakes
I don't like going along with hype horses but when the hype agrees with everything else you see sometimes you just have to hold your nose and go for it. Not since Empire Maker has there been as much talk about a Belmont entrant that wasn't already a Triple Crown race winner. Charitable Man is the horse with the skills to win this race and even his cautious connections aren't hiding the fact. The Belmont is not usually won by a horse that has one quick move those quick move horses often find the stamina drained before they get to use their kick. Steady grinders typically own this race and although Charitable Man has good early speed he's not a quick horse he's a steady accelerator. Miner's Escape and Chocolate Candy are the other main grinders in this race. I'd use the word plodder but that often has a negative connotation. Dunkirk, Mine That Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff are quick move horses. I'm not saying they can't win I'm just saying that I prefer to stay away from that type. The pace could be slow so late runners might not do as well this time around. Mine That Bird appears to have the field by the neck if Beyer's are to be believed but the Belmont is more about fitness than speed and a bit of research has actually shown that horses who run a pair of really quick races in the Derby and Preakness often have a hard time giving the same effort in the Belmont. It's a long race and they're tired from two recent big efforts. I respect Miner's Escape and Chocolate Candy as well as Luv Gov and Dunkirk. I know Dunkirk doesn't have my ideal running style but I respect him because I think he is a genuinely good horse in a race that isn't really full of them.
Charitable Man
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I use big days like this to test out Pick 6 and Pick 4 strategies. I'll be following the Belmont card live and will be updating my selections for every race as well as my multi-race wagers on this spreadsheet: Pick 6
A single is a great way to start off any Pick 6 and I think race gives us a great chance to single. Fabulous Strike is my best bet on the card, I just hope Benny The Bull stays in to keep his price above even money. I've heard some people saying that Fabulous Strike is past his best. I think that's ridiculous. His last two races have been at 7f where he is far more exposed. He has never won a race at 7f, he simply doesn't have the stamina but at 6f he is a monster. Since breaking his maiden he's had 12 6f races on traditional dirt and has a 12-9-2-0 record. He has been fabulous at Belmont as well. The other speed in this race doesn't bother me at all. I remember the Vosburgh two years ago, that race had a lot more speed than this one but he ran those horses into the ground and drew off by nearly 6. He still has that kind of form in him and even though Benny The Bull is one scary dude on his best day Fabulous Strike will be gone before Benny gets in gear. Desert Key is a horse I love and will cheer for but I can't see him beating Fabulous Strike on current form. Two Step Salsa has an outsiders chance based on his excellent recent form but he also has never shown the kind of pace necessary to win this. At 7f he might just become the pick but not at 6f. This race belongs to Fabulous Strike.
Fabulous Strike
Just A Game Stakes
I think this is the first chance on the card to really get interesting and take a stand against a heavy favorite. Everyone knows that Forever Together can win this race and she will be 4/5 and a single on many tickets. I can see some vulnerability though and the payoff for being a contrarian could be big. Forever Together has only lost two turf races, both losses came in one turn races on large, deep courses namely Belmont and Woodbine. Quicker, sharper courses have been meat and drink to her, she never looked like losing those ones. She does have a win at Arlington which is a deeper course like Belmont but it was a two turn race and she earned the lowest Turf Beyer figure of her career. This may be the only chance to get Forever Together beaten this year. The horse I like is Modern Look. Bobby Frankel knows a thing or two about grass fillies and I think he sent her out east to try and find softer courses than she'd get in California. In Europe she always preferred some cut in the ground and her North American debut was okay but not great. She should improve vastly here and will get a perfect trip behind the deliberate pace of Raw Silk. I might use Caribbean Sunset as well just because I think the mile suits her well and a lot of transplanted Europeans don't hit the heights in their first start. She should be better this time and being better means being probably good enough to win. I love Europeans first off the plane for a European trainer but the ones that come here to stay and have plenty of time stateside before their first race often take a race or two to get going. Captain's Lover has some interesting form but she is exactly the kind of horse I was just talking about. It's her first race in North America but she is a transplant for Pletcher. I'd use her defensively but I think she'll need a race. Modern Look should adore the ground, the course and the pace. She should also be improved off her last effort she's the pick to see the champions colors lowered.
Modern Look
Woody Stephens Stakes
What a race this is. It's truly a shame that Regal Ransom is coupled in here with a horse I like because I was looking forward to not using him in any way. Unfortunately Everyday Heroes is far too good to ignore. I think Sheikh Mohammed may have bought himself a real runner in this son of Awesome Again. He has never been beaten and he is bred to appreciate stretching out. I don't usually like horses that win impressively while drifting badly but he was just so impressive I can't overlook him. He should get a perfect stalking trip and be right in the hunt. His morning preparation for this event was a sizzling 4f. In case you haven't gotten this impression already I definitely feel that Everyday Heroes is very dangerous. He's not the horse I really want to play in this race though. I've been waiting for Munnings to turn up in a spot like this since last summer. His comeback effort on Derby day was good but I think he'll be better on a fast track. Munnings has some flashy ability of his own and I think Pletcher has him nicely tuned for this race. He's the play I just hope Everyday Heroes isn't too much of a freak for him. Triumphant Flight and Hello Broadway are both good plays underneath. They would be a bit of a shock as winners but both have solid sprinting credentials and long prices. That's an excellent blend for a nice exacta under a logical horse.
Munnings
Acorn Stakes
This is the second time on the card that I'm going with interesting over obvious. The reason is because I don't like Justwhistledixie at all. Forever Together might be vulnerable but I still think she can win. I don't think Justwhistledixie can win. I think her Gulfstream performances were overrated. Only one horse she has beaten all year has come back to win next time out and that was Shared Account who managed to take a slow allowance. Her form is overrated and the Acorn is where the summer batch of fillies usually start to emerge. I loved Livin Lovin as a 2yo. I thought she showed G-1 type acceleration. Normally I don't like taking a horse off such a long layoff in a G-1 but the price will be excellent and the competition not all that stiff. She really doesn't have to be much better than she was as a 2yo to win. If she has trained on at all she could waltz away with this. The layoff is a concern so I will hedge a bit with a few others in the Pick 6 and also with Funny Moon in the win pool. Funny Moon is something of a rarity this spring. She actually improved her Beyer Speed Figures after coming away from Gulfstream. Don't know if you've noticed but very few horses have looked better in their first start away from Gulfstream than they did at Gulfstream itself. I think a lot of the figures and form were overrated. But here is a talented dirt filly from a turf barn that is getting better with each race. After seeing her last race I pencilled her in as a Mother Goose filly because I think 9f will be perfect but she's no slouch at 8f. She's built more like a solid bodied router and she doesn't have the lightning turn of foot that Livin Lovin does but she has current form and the race sets up well for her. These two fillies look like they offer a chance to make a nice score.
Livin Lovin
Funny Moon
Manhattan Handicap
A big problem for many handicappers is that they become married to losers that flatter to deceive. For me that horse is Court Vision. I've touted him in all three of his races this year and he just has a pair of third place finishes to show for it. I think this is finally the spot where he comes good though. 10f is a better distance for him than 9f and he comes back to the course where he earned his best career performance in my opinion. The Jamaica may have been just a G-2 for 3yo's but it was no easy race. In fact 3 horses from the Jamaica are this Manhattan. Gio Ponti looked like the more logical play but Court Vision was breathing fire that day as he scythed down the even money favorite. He looked like he was born for the course. He has to deal with old rivals Gio Ponti and Cowboy Cal again but the extra furlong should be the deciding factor. I think Gio Ponti is the best miler in the nation but this race is too far for him. Class may see him stick around for a place but he's a bad gamble because he's clearly a miler. Cowboy Cal is one of the toughest horses in America but 10f is a stretch for him and ease in the ground will make it all the more stamina sapping. He's hard to leave out of the exotics but he's not a winner for my money. The overlooked horse in this race might be Cosmonaut. This 7yo warrior has the reputation of a loser, probably because he is routinely well backed but is only 8 for 33 lifetime. He's burnt a lot of money in his time. But I like him here for a few reasons. First of all the competition is weaker than what he's faced much of his career. He was 4th in the 07' Manhattan but that race featured English Channel and an in form Better Talk Now. He was only beaten by 3/4 of a length on that day. Secondly I think he likes ease in the ground. In 10 races on less than firm courses he has 4 wins which is way above his normal winning percentage. Also included in that group was a third in the BC Mile which was way beyond his usual level of performance. Thirdly I think he just adores Belmont Park. He has a massive 103 average Beyer figure in stakes races at Belmont. More than half the horses in this race can't even run that fast on their best day let alone as an average. He also has good form at Arlington which I consider to be a similar course. Cosmonaut may not be as young as he once was but he is still just as good and this race is a nice setup for him.
Court Vision
Cosmonaut
Belmont Stakes
I don't like going along with hype horses but when the hype agrees with everything else you see sometimes you just have to hold your nose and go for it. Not since Empire Maker has there been as much talk about a Belmont entrant that wasn't already a Triple Crown race winner. Charitable Man is the horse with the skills to win this race and even his cautious connections aren't hiding the fact. The Belmont is not usually won by a horse that has one quick move those quick move horses often find the stamina drained before they get to use their kick. Steady grinders typically own this race and although Charitable Man has good early speed he's not a quick horse he's a steady accelerator. Miner's Escape and Chocolate Candy are the other main grinders in this race. I'd use the word plodder but that often has a negative connotation. Dunkirk, Mine That Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff are quick move horses. I'm not saying they can't win I'm just saying that I prefer to stay away from that type. The pace could be slow so late runners might not do as well this time around. Mine That Bird appears to have the field by the neck if Beyer's are to be believed but the Belmont is more about fitness than speed and a bit of research has actually shown that horses who run a pair of really quick races in the Derby and Preakness often have a hard time giving the same effort in the Belmont. It's a long race and they're tired from two recent big efforts. I respect Miner's Escape and Chocolate Candy as well as Luv Gov and Dunkirk. I know Dunkirk doesn't have my ideal running style but I respect him because I think he is a genuinely good horse in a race that isn't really full of them.
Charitable Man
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I use big days like this to test out Pick 6 and Pick 4 strategies. I'll be following the Belmont card live and will be updating my selections for every race as well as my multi-race wagers on this spreadsheet: Pick 6
Friday, May 29, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
Aristides Stakes
Earlier this month I got burned by Sok Sok as he floundered in the Churchill mud. He was my best bet of the Derby day and it was a little shocking to see him check in 5th. I'm going back to the well for one more shot on him here because all the reasons that I liked him still exist. He's got a great record in dirt sprints and it's even better if you take out his latest effort on a sloppy track. I think 6f is more his game than 7f so the cutback will suit but the biggest thing that is to his advantage here is the step down in class. This is a much easier race. Semaphore Man, Premium Wine, Vicarian and Bold Start are all useful horses but far from brilliant. Sok Sok ought to be able to handle this group unless I've misread him completely.
Sok Sok
Nassau Stakes
This race is being billed as a match race between Callwood Dancer and Rutherienne. Given that they're the only two horses in the race to earn a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure it might be wise to simply stick with the chalk. But I think any handicapper that takes a close look at the favorites can see that they're vulnerable. Rutherienne is winless in her last 7 and Callwood Dancer has just one allowance win in her last 7. I know they had a combined 10 graded stakes placings in those 14 starts but the single win leads me to conclude that each of these fillies are not exactly in the winning habit. It's pretty common for both of them to be well backed but somewhat rare for either of them to win. The problem with this race is that there aren't many logical alternatives. That may wind up being an opportunity because if anyone other than the top two wins it should pay well but coming up with the right horse will be tricky. Points of Grace has a great record and could be an emerging talent that is better than her speed figures. I've often thought that the toughest race for any horse to win is that first step into allowance company after a maiden win. Point of Grace can be forgiven for not winning that one in her second career start. Her only other loss came at the hands of Tizaqueena who, despite lower speed figures, proved herself to be a very capable horse on Derby day. I still suspect that she needs a bit more experience before beating this type but she would not be all that shocking. I think I'm going to settle on Scenery Change as my primary selection though. She doesn't seem fast enough according to Beyer but the other speed measurements I use say that she is good enough. She was a well thought of youngster with the conservative Matz tossing her in stakes company while she was still a maiden but she took a while to come to hand. Matz finally started to coax the best out of her and she was sent to Josie Carroll, likely with the intention of pillaging Woodbine's turf program. She's been okay in two starts this season but she was never going to be well suited to leading a Polytrack race from start to finish. She has perked up in the mornings at Woodbine and I think she's capable of running a big race.
Scenery Change
Gamely Stakes
I think a lot of connections will be praying that Tuscan Evening stays in the race to keep Diamond Diva honest but I think she's going to scratch for the easier spot. The Diva may not get things her own way if Ainamaa is sent like she was in her last two. I respect Diamond Diva a great deal but I'm always inclined to oppose milers that are stretching out. Diamond Diva beats this field at 8f but at 9f she is definitely a question mark on stamina. There are some good closers in this race and I'm going to hope that one of them gets up in time to deny Diamond Diva. Toque de Queda is the horse that interests me most. I think she'll love the shorter distance. It should sharpen her kick a great deal. In Europe she was at her best around a mile or 9f but all her races in North America have been nearer to 10f. I thought Espinoza moved a little too soon on her last time out but with the added experience of having been on her and the shorter distance I think it's a recipe for Frankel's 4th G-1 of the year. I respect Black Mamba because she loves the course and distance but I think she's more likely to run up for third.
Toque de Queda
Earlier this month I got burned by Sok Sok as he floundered in the Churchill mud. He was my best bet of the Derby day and it was a little shocking to see him check in 5th. I'm going back to the well for one more shot on him here because all the reasons that I liked him still exist. He's got a great record in dirt sprints and it's even better if you take out his latest effort on a sloppy track. I think 6f is more his game than 7f so the cutback will suit but the biggest thing that is to his advantage here is the step down in class. This is a much easier race. Semaphore Man, Premium Wine, Vicarian and Bold Start are all useful horses but far from brilliant. Sok Sok ought to be able to handle this group unless I've misread him completely.
Sok Sok
Nassau Stakes
This race is being billed as a match race between Callwood Dancer and Rutherienne. Given that they're the only two horses in the race to earn a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure it might be wise to simply stick with the chalk. But I think any handicapper that takes a close look at the favorites can see that they're vulnerable. Rutherienne is winless in her last 7 and Callwood Dancer has just one allowance win in her last 7. I know they had a combined 10 graded stakes placings in those 14 starts but the single win leads me to conclude that each of these fillies are not exactly in the winning habit. It's pretty common for both of them to be well backed but somewhat rare for either of them to win. The problem with this race is that there aren't many logical alternatives. That may wind up being an opportunity because if anyone other than the top two wins it should pay well but coming up with the right horse will be tricky. Points of Grace has a great record and could be an emerging talent that is better than her speed figures. I've often thought that the toughest race for any horse to win is that first step into allowance company after a maiden win. Point of Grace can be forgiven for not winning that one in her second career start. Her only other loss came at the hands of Tizaqueena who, despite lower speed figures, proved herself to be a very capable horse on Derby day. I still suspect that she needs a bit more experience before beating this type but she would not be all that shocking. I think I'm going to settle on Scenery Change as my primary selection though. She doesn't seem fast enough according to Beyer but the other speed measurements I use say that she is good enough. She was a well thought of youngster with the conservative Matz tossing her in stakes company while she was still a maiden but she took a while to come to hand. Matz finally started to coax the best out of her and she was sent to Josie Carroll, likely with the intention of pillaging Woodbine's turf program. She's been okay in two starts this season but she was never going to be well suited to leading a Polytrack race from start to finish. She has perked up in the mornings at Woodbine and I think she's capable of running a big race.
Scenery Change
Gamely Stakes
I think a lot of connections will be praying that Tuscan Evening stays in the race to keep Diamond Diva honest but I think she's going to scratch for the easier spot. The Diva may not get things her own way if Ainamaa is sent like she was in her last two. I respect Diamond Diva a great deal but I'm always inclined to oppose milers that are stretching out. Diamond Diva beats this field at 8f but at 9f she is definitely a question mark on stamina. There are some good closers in this race and I'm going to hope that one of them gets up in time to deny Diamond Diva. Toque de Queda is the horse that interests me most. I think she'll love the shorter distance. It should sharpen her kick a great deal. In Europe she was at her best around a mile or 9f but all her races in North America have been nearer to 10f. I thought Espinoza moved a little too soon on her last time out but with the added experience of having been on her and the shorter distance I think it's a recipe for Frankel's 4th G-1 of the year. I respect Black Mamba because she loves the course and distance but I think she's more likely to run up for third.
Toque de Queda
Monday, May 25, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis - Part 2
Metropolitan Handicap
This race is a great reason to stay near a television or computer today. Although the field lacks any main track G-1 winners it is quite evenly matched and should be a great betting event. Bribon is a scary horse at Belmont on his best day. He is definitely the horse for the course but he is more used to beating up on allowance grade horses. He gets a tougher test here. I think you need to use him in any significant multi-race wager but if you're just win wagering he might be worth opposing for the sake of value. Riley Tucker stands out as a very interesting candidate to me. I thought he was a very decent two year old but he lost his way as a three year old. I think much of his under performance had to do with being asked to go two turns. He is 6-0-2-1 around two turns and 5-3-1-1 around one turn. Since moving to Baffert's barn he has been earning career best speed figures as well. Baffert is a very dangerous shipping trainer and the most recent bullet work is a good sign for a horse from his barn. There is an abundance of early speed which hurts his chances but hopefully he can get in front and some others will back off knowing that there is so much speed. Driven By Success is the only horse in the race that has more natural speed but he's breaking from the near outside post. Smooth Air is a horse I just can't rationalize myself away from. He is solid from top to bottom and should be able to adapt well to the pace. Other than against Bribon his speed figures look formidable. I'll definitely be using Smooth Air as a hedge. For some nice plays underneath I'd look at Imperial Council, Famous Patriot and Runforthedoe.They should like the conditions and can close into a fast pace if the speed horses decide to go crazy.
Riley Tucker
Smooth Air
Shoemaker Mile Stakes
There is probably no type of race I love more than a nice stakes at a mile on the grass. I think these races give you the best mix contrasting styles, quick moves and tight finishes. I love to focus on the horses that I consider to be distance specialists but this race is chalked full of them. In fact I think a mile on the grass are the best conditions for all the members of this field. You almost never see that. I'm almost thankful to see Ventura scratch, not that her presence wouldn't be interesting but it removes another plausible option from the race. Everyone is good at a mile but I think the highest class milers are Whatsthescript and Hyperbaric. Dixie Chatter is aiming to become of the elite milers but I think he's just a length or two slower than these two. I find it interesting that Baze is off Hyperbaric and gets Dixie Chatter instead. Perhaps he knows something I don't but I'll still go against Dixie Chatter here. Whatsthescript is coming off a long layoff while Hyperbaric is trying to recover from a disaster in Dubai. Both situations may help their prices just a bit but they'll still be backed solidly. I'm going to prefer Hyperbaric slightly over Whatsthescript. Hyperbaric always seemed to have lots of talent but he was a head case. They finally got him figured out last fall and he reeled off 4 straight wins. There is a good deal of pace in the race but I think Hyperbaric won't be affected too badly. He can sit a length or two off the pace or lead if need be. He'll have first run on Whatsthescript and should be able to hold him off just barely. US Ranger and Dixie Chatter should fight it out for third.
Hyperbaric
Ouija Board Handicap
Another Turf Mile event where I feel like there is a good opportunity. Flibberjibit stands above the rest in my opinion. Although she will likely be backed into favoritism she still might offer some value is she is 2/1 or more. She has great speed that can be used to set the pace or simply press it, she is a step above the rest on class and a mile is definitely her best distance. Marty Wolfson is also one of the best shipping trainers in the country. He didn't send her to Texas for nothing. Underneath the best plays are Love To Tell and Rustic Flame. I respect the presence of Sweeter Still but she moved to an inferior barn and has been off quite a long time. I think she'll need a race.
Flibberjibit
This race is a great reason to stay near a television or computer today. Although the field lacks any main track G-1 winners it is quite evenly matched and should be a great betting event. Bribon is a scary horse at Belmont on his best day. He is definitely the horse for the course but he is more used to beating up on allowance grade horses. He gets a tougher test here. I think you need to use him in any significant multi-race wager but if you're just win wagering he might be worth opposing for the sake of value. Riley Tucker stands out as a very interesting candidate to me. I thought he was a very decent two year old but he lost his way as a three year old. I think much of his under performance had to do with being asked to go two turns. He is 6-0-2-1 around two turns and 5-3-1-1 around one turn. Since moving to Baffert's barn he has been earning career best speed figures as well. Baffert is a very dangerous shipping trainer and the most recent bullet work is a good sign for a horse from his barn. There is an abundance of early speed which hurts his chances but hopefully he can get in front and some others will back off knowing that there is so much speed. Driven By Success is the only horse in the race that has more natural speed but he's breaking from the near outside post. Smooth Air is a horse I just can't rationalize myself away from. He is solid from top to bottom and should be able to adapt well to the pace. Other than against Bribon his speed figures look formidable. I'll definitely be using Smooth Air as a hedge. For some nice plays underneath I'd look at Imperial Council, Famous Patriot and Runforthedoe.They should like the conditions and can close into a fast pace if the speed horses decide to go crazy.
Riley Tucker
Smooth Air
Shoemaker Mile Stakes
There is probably no type of race I love more than a nice stakes at a mile on the grass. I think these races give you the best mix contrasting styles, quick moves and tight finishes. I love to focus on the horses that I consider to be distance specialists but this race is chalked full of them. In fact I think a mile on the grass are the best conditions for all the members of this field. You almost never see that. I'm almost thankful to see Ventura scratch, not that her presence wouldn't be interesting but it removes another plausible option from the race. Everyone is good at a mile but I think the highest class milers are Whatsthescript and Hyperbaric. Dixie Chatter is aiming to become of the elite milers but I think he's just a length or two slower than these two. I find it interesting that Baze is off Hyperbaric and gets Dixie Chatter instead. Perhaps he knows something I don't but I'll still go against Dixie Chatter here. Whatsthescript is coming off a long layoff while Hyperbaric is trying to recover from a disaster in Dubai. Both situations may help their prices just a bit but they'll still be backed solidly. I'm going to prefer Hyperbaric slightly over Whatsthescript. Hyperbaric always seemed to have lots of talent but he was a head case. They finally got him figured out last fall and he reeled off 4 straight wins. There is a good deal of pace in the race but I think Hyperbaric won't be affected too badly. He can sit a length or two off the pace or lead if need be. He'll have first run on Whatsthescript and should be able to hold him off just barely. US Ranger and Dixie Chatter should fight it out for third.
Hyperbaric
Ouija Board Handicap
Another Turf Mile event where I feel like there is a good opportunity. Flibberjibit stands above the rest in my opinion. Although she will likely be backed into favoritism she still might offer some value is she is 2/1 or more. She has great speed that can be used to set the pace or simply press it, she is a step above the rest on class and a mile is definitely her best distance. Marty Wolfson is also one of the best shipping trainers in the country. He didn't send her to Texas for nothing. Underneath the best plays are Love To Tell and Rustic Flame. I respect the presence of Sweeter Still but she moved to an inferior barn and has been off quite a long time. I think she'll need a race.
Flibberjibit
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