Saratoga and Del Mar - where stars collide?

Everyone anticipates the two showpeice meets of American racing. It is said that the best horses run at Saratoga and Del Mar, especially the juveniles. Many big stables hold back thier brightest stars so they can unveiled in the limelight of these meets. But I wondered how that actually bears out on BC day. Specifically are we likely to have seen most of the BC winners at either Del Mar or Saratoga this summer. I did a little digging and these are the results based on 1995 to the present.

Just for a loose description of the stats presented. The first column is the description of the winners. "Won @ Sar" describes the horses who won a BC race while also winning at Saratoga that year. The figure that follows is how many winners met the criteria followed by the percentage of the total that represents.

62 BC Turf and Dirt - Older
Europeans - 13 (21%)
Won @ Sar - 9 (14%)
Won @ DM - 6 (9%)
Ran @ Sar - 22 (35%)
Ran @ DM - 12 (19%)
Ran @ DM or Sar - 34 (54%)

33 BC Dirt races - Older
Won @ Sar - 5 (15%)
Won @ DM - 5 (15%)
Ran @ Sar - 17 (51%)
Ran @ DM - 9 (27%)
Ran @ DM or Sar - 26 (78%)

22 BC races - Juveniles
Europeans - 2 (9%)
Won @ Sar - 7 (31%)
Won @ DM - 7 (31%)
Ran @ Sar - 10 (45%)
Ran @ DM - 8 (36%)
Ran @ DM or Sar - 18 (81.8%)

55 BC Dirt races - All ages
Europeans - 2 (3%)
Won @ Sar - 12 (21%)
Won @ DM - 12 (21%)
Ran @ Sar - 27 (49%)
Ran @ DM - 17 (30%)
Ran @ DM or Sar - 44 (80%)

29 BC Turf races - Older
Europeans - 13 (44%)
Won @ Sar - 4 (13%)
Won @ DM - 1 (3%)
Ran @ Sar - 5 (17%)
Ran @ DM - 3 (10%)
Ran @ DM or Sar - 8 (27%)

The juvenile races were dominated by those 2yo's who had won at Saratoga or Del Mar. Winners combined for an incredible 62%. There was even more dominance once you factored in those who had run but not did not necessarily win at the premier summer meets.

As for the older horses the results arent quite as dramatic until you isolate the dirt races. 78% of the BC dirt races were won by horses who competed at one of the two tracks during that season. Those results are very much in line with the Juvenile percentages.

Bottom line. The status of Saratoga and Del Mar as premier meets isnt just nostalgic fluff. The best horses really do run there and when making your picks for the dirt BC races just remember. 8 times out of 10 the winner will have run at Saratoga or Del Mar earlier that year.
42 horses competed in last years BC after having run at Saratoga or Del Mar. A flat bet on all of them would have cost $84 and the return would have been $113.80. A tidy $29.80 (or 35% ROI) isnt all that bad.