Automatic plays

To correspond with the Profile of a Winner project there are also a few ways to make money on the Breeders Cup that are systematic.

I'm sure many people have read about the "bombs away" play featured on equidaily each year. Basically its a wager where you simply bet on every longshot on the card and hope they come in. There are of course many better ways to play longshots instead of just blindly choosing them all. One such way is what I will present to you here.

Simply bet the four longest shots on the board to win in every Breeders Cup race that has 10 entrants or less.

Many people would assume that short fields mean short payouts and lots of favorites, but surprisingly the favorites win at the same percentage and the bombs hit at a slightly higher percentage. By isolating these longshots in short fields one could have made 89% ROI since the BC began, and much of the systems success was achieved in the last 10 years.

To balance that play I looked for a way to turn a nice profit in the larger fields. After all most BC races have fields of more than 10. One thing that struck me was that favorites still win 35% of the races that have maxxed out fields. So the play is as follows.

Bet an exacta wheel with the Favorite over All in every race with more than 10 starters.

This yeilds a 65% profit but the best feature is that it compliments the longshot system so well that in years where one is a loser the other is usually a winner. The reason this works is because in larger fields the exacta combinations are spread more thinly and the favorites tend to be higher prices. Confusion amongst the public creates value for exacta players.

It can be quite a challenge to outdo an automatic system. But I'll give it a shot. If you combine the longshot angle, the Fave-All exacta, and the Profile of a winner it'll cost you $532 total.

That's with $10 to win on every horse in the longshot angle, $10 to win on every Profile qualifier, a $2 exacta wheel on all races with more than 10 entrants and DD's, P3's, P4's and P6's using the Profile qualifiers.

My personal wagers based on my handicapping can be found here. I think I'm going to be all out to try and beat the system.