Oaks and Derby - Early Line

There is still a ton of racing to come before the Triple Crown trail heats up but I think enough has transpired to give us an early look at who could be the top contenders. At least it will be interesting to see this list again come May.

Fillies Top 10
1. Dreaming of Anna
2. Boca Grande
3. Get Ready Bertie
4. Lady Joanne
5. Octave
6. Autobahn Girl
7. Change Up
8. Appealing Zophie
9. Cotton Blossom
10. Successful Outlook

Until she loses Dreaming of Anna has to be considered to be in a class by herself. Dirt, turf or whatever this filly has been flawless and dominant. Her speed makes her a possible target for cheap speed and her figures haven’t been out of this world so its possible that some other fillies could catch up to her but for now she’s peerless. Boca Grande moves into second with her powerful and professional Demoiselle win. I have a ton of faith in McGaughey, I think he brings his horses along very well and I expect nothing but improvement from her. While Get Ready Bertie was beaten conclusively by Boca Grande I think there are a lot of positives her connections can take from the effort. She moved a little too soon when it looked like Blasi’s horse was getting away then just as she and Boca Grande were getting to the leader, Successful Outlook shifted out and spooked Get Ready Bertie. She lost valuable momentum and the race was over before she regained it but she still went on to assert herself over the others. I don’t know if she would have won regardless however I don’t think you’ll have to be able to beat Boca Grande to be a top horse. Lady Joanne has improved consistently with every start and I loved the way she went around two turns. She wore the brilliant Change Up into the ground. One could expect great things from her. Octave is the class measuring stick of this division. Beat her and you’ve got a good one. I fear that she really isn’t fast enough to assert herself however she could improve. Even if she doesn’t though she’ll give her competition a stiff test each time. Autobahn Girl may be a frustrating one to follow as she may be a bit of a loser but she is very good. She has been beaten by Panty Raid, Get Ready Bertie and Imperial Reign all of whom are very good horses but she only gets beaten by one horse each time. That is often a sign that the horse is better than their record indicates. She won last out and maybe that will be a spring board to more consistent success for her. Change Up has distance issues. Her speed and potential for brilliance gets her on the list but she has to show that she can shut off more early on so she can have something left. Appealing Zophie won me over with the BC Juvenile Fillies. She really had every reason to quit that day and she didn’t. It wouldn’t shock me to see her dominate the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn this spring. Her speed is a dangerous weapon. Combining it with tenacity makes her extra dangerous. Cotton Blossom is in the mold of Octave and Autobahn Girl. Solid with every chance to move forward, however she could just turn into an underachiever. Successful Outlook has both talent and mental issues. For a moment she looked like she was going to take the Demoiselle as she pleased then she just shut off. With some maturity I think this amazon might turn into a really serious contender.

On the radar:
Panty Raid – Very impressive maiden winner at Saratoga. She beat Autobahn Girl with distain but hasn’t had any reported workouts since. That is the only thing that keeps her off the list. She may not be around for the campaign.

Colts Top 10
1. Tiz Wonderful
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Nobiz Like Showbiz
4. Great Hunter
5. Street Sense
6. Circular Quay
7. Scat Daddy
8. Minefield
9. Belgravia
10. Dilemma

I have to give Tiz Wonderful the top spot. He ran the best 2yo race at Saratoga. He followed it up with an ugly but dominant win at CD then looked much better when taking out Any Given Saturday whom I also rate very highly. He has shown brilliance and toughness. His figures are about in line with what you'd like to see. He is clearly fast but he doesn’t give the impression that he's piqued. Any Given Saturday may go to the top once things get going in the spring. A rapier turn of foot this guys got and with a little more professionalism he may have taken down Tiz Wonderful. One of the most exciting prospects I've seen. Nobiz Like Showbiz has been brilliant, even in defeat he looked very good and suggested that there was much more to come. He still has a lot of tests ahead of him but he is definitely in the upper echelon. Great Hunter may seem like an odd selection ahead of a horse who smashed him last out but personally I see tons to like about this guy. If one horse from this crop could be described as the class benchmark it would be him. 7 starts on 5 different tracks from 4 1/2f to 8 1/2f and worse than second only once. He's not a "winner" but Point Given wasn’t really either until after the BC. I think this guy is only going to get better and he may be the dominant force in California in the spring. Street Sense might be viewed as a little low by many but I think he's just about right. I think his BC Juvenile was almost a working definition of the term "freak out". He beat his former best Beyer by 21 points after running 4 races that were decent but not brilliant. I think the stars just aligned on that day for him and that he wont be running back to a 108 until at least Derby time if ever. I expect him to revert back to the type of solid but unspectacular form he showed prior to the BC. Circular Quay actually holds down 6th spot tenuously in my opinion. He is there because of his accomplishments but I really wasn’t impressed with either of his two turn races. He may have trouble moving forward but his 2yo form was too good to just leave him off. Scat Daddy is going to have distance concerns looming over him all spring but he should be a real force in the prep races. This horse has some toughness so I cant count him out. Minefield looks a most impressive prospect. He is easily the most unproven horse in my top 10 but its possible that he could run his way into everyone's list by springtime. Belgravia has pretty poor figures but then he has run both his starts on All-Weather tracks which tend to yield lower figures. Visually this horse does everything you want to see. He's got a good turn of foot and he's got some toughness. He's still got some maturity issues but he should do very well at two turns as well. Dilemma comes in just behind his conqueror, and part of the reason is the two turn question. I'm slightly wary of his ability to reproduce that kick around 2 turns. But if he can he'll be a terror.

On the radar:
Green Vegas - Very unlucky not to be #10 a solid horse with even a good amount of speed. He seems to like two turns but has to show form away from Calder.
Les Grands Trois - Maybe one of the best maiden winners I saw all year, however he hasn’t worked since Sept 9th so I don’t know if he'll be around much.
My Golden Opinion - A solid horse who could do very well if he continues to improve. Ran a pretty good 4th in the Champagne
Pegasus Wind - I don’t really like him in the hands of Lukas but I do think he's got some talent. Whenever Lukas gets him right he could be a real force.
Hard Spun - Untested but brilliant, doesn’t really look like a TC horse to me but I'm open to being convinced.
Day Pass - If he were not going to Dubai he'd be in the top 10. Brilliant speed, and maybe enough stamina to go the distance. At any rate a horse with that much talent is going to win some races. But not from Dubai.
Soaring By - No recently reported works so its hard to say what's up with him. Has every chance to move forward if fit.