Sprint Profile

Factors

#1 – The entrant must have finished in the money in their last start.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#2 – The entrant must have made a minimum of 4 starts in the current season.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#3 – The entrant must have a 28 days minimum since their last race.

9 of the last 11 Sprint winners qualified with this factor. The two winners that didn’t were Artax (1999) and Kona Gold (2000). Artax and Kona Gold both had 21 days sicne their last race.

#4 – The entrant must have won a race at 6f furlongs in the current season.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#5 – The entrant must have won at least one Graded Stakes race in the current season.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#6 – The entrant must have received a minimum 110 Beyer Speed Figure.

10 of the last 11 Sprint winners qualified with this factor. The one winners that didn’t was Elmhurst (1997). Elmhurst’s highest career Beyer Speed Figure was 109.

#7 – The entrant must have started lower than 10/1 in their last race. Quality is often reflected on the tote board. Horses that are long odds in the preps usually have to run above themselves to convince their connections that they belong in the Breeders Cup. However regression after a career top is quite common. This is an attempt to identify horses who are susceptible to regression. Or to identify the horses that simply have no chance at all.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Sprint of horses eliminated by this factor is 9-0-1-0.

#8 – The entrants last prep race must have come on the dirt.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#9 – The entrant must have finished in the money in all of their last 3 starts.

9 of the last 11 Sprint winners qualified with this factor. The two winners that didn’t were Lit de Justice (1996) and Artax (1999).

#10 – The entrant much have achieved a 110 Beyer in one of their last three attempts in one turn dirt races.

10 of the last 11 Sprint winners qualified with this factor. The one winners that didn’t was Elmhurst (1997). Elmhurst’s highest Beyer Speed Figure achieved in his last three attempts around one turn was 101.

#11 – The entrant must have earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure minimum in their final start before the Sprint.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

#12 – The entrant cannot have run 10 Beyer points higher in their last start than their previous career best.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor.

The Profile of a Winner would have only selected qualifiers for 8 of the last 10 runnings. In 1996 and 1999 no horses fit all 12 factors. There have been 17 qualifiers from the last 10 runnings for an average of 1.7 per year or 2.1 per race (if you eliminate 96’ and 99’ which yielded no qualifiers). During those 8 runnings, 106 entrants started in the Sprint. So the profile qualifiers have an impact value of 4.69. Meaning that they win the Sprint 4 and half times more often than their statistical probability.

A flat $2 win bet on each qualifier would have cost $34 and the total returned from those wagers would be $121.00. An amazing $85.00 profit or 250.00% return on investment.