The Profile of a Winner

Profiling horses for specific races is not always effective and the main reason is because in any given race nearly all of the horses are entered with different goals. Some are coming back from a layoff. Some are at the end of their form cycle. Some are being raised in class, others dropped in class. A specific race may have been the target of a particular horse while another might be using it as a prep. With so many different types of intentions from the connections it is impossible to build a successful profile. However the Breeders Cup doesn’t have those same variables. All horses who enter it are pointed specifically for it. No one uses it as a prep and it is almost never an after thought. Everyone comes up to the race in the manner that they feel gives them the best chance for success. Consequently we are able to identify and isolate those patterns and combine them into a profile.

None of the factors included are jinx or myth. There is no quantifiable reason why a certain horse would not be able to win a Breeders Cup race simply because he won a certain “jinxed” prep race, or because his name starts with a certain letter. Every single factor must be aimed at identifying six key ingredients to winning: Speed, Fitness, Current Form, Class, Experience and Suitability to the conditions.

The factors for each Breeders Cup race are unique to that race. As you might expect one requires different qualifications from a possible Breeders Cup Turf winner than one would a Juvenile winner. However some of the factors do overlap. For instance every race Profile demands that the qualifier finish in the money (win, place or show) in their last start before the Breeders Cup. 146 of the 161 (or 90%) Breeders Cup race winners met that criteria. The only exemption from that factor is runners exiting the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Given its championship status it is treated different from other races. It is not a prep race but rather a target. Another uniform factor is that all horses who started a 10/1 or more in their last prep (Arc not included) are eliminated. Quality is often reflected on the tote board. Horses that are long odds in the preps usually have to run above themselves to convince their connections that they belong in the Breeders Cup. However regression after a career top is quite common. This is an attempt to identify horses who are susceptible to regression. Or to identify the horses that simply have no chance at all. The cumulative record of the horses eliminated by this factor is an incredible 116-1-6-6.

Most handicappers will tell you that value is the only way to have long term success. But the Profile of a Winner does not seek to identify value. It seeks to identify the winner. Having the winner in every race is actually your best chance for success. The trick is getting the winner. Most people consider a 30% win rate to be good, at that percentage one still needs to aid of value to be profitable, however this system identifies winners are more than twice that percentage. The starting price has nothing to do with the winners profiles because you don’t need to look for value when you are successful that often.

Tommorow I will post the profile for the Sprint as an example as well as all the qualifiers for each race this year.