Derby and Oaks Top 10

I will be posting my top 10 for the Derby and Oaks each week from now until 2 weeks before the Derby. My Derby top 10 will stay on the sidebar all the time. These horses are ranked according to my interpretation of thier talent and suitability to the Derby conditions. I wont be writing a complete rundown of each horse each week. I'll mostly just be mentioning those who did something nothworty during that time period or if the rankings changed. The horses listed in the "on the radar" section are essentially those next in line to assume a place in the top 10. I posted the original version of this list on November 28th. If you would care to read it, it can be found here.

Derby Top 10 (Jan 8th)

1. Tiz Wonderful (1)
2. Any Given Saturday (2)
3. Nobiz Like Showbiz (3)
4. Great Hunter (4)
5. Street Sense (5)
6. Circular Quay (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Pirates Deputy (new)
9. Birdbirdistheword (new)
10. Tenfold (new)

No changes of the highest ranked horses from when I last posted this ranking in December. None of them have been involved in anything noteworthy that would see them dropped or move up the rankings. That is likely to remain the case throughout January. The new additions are Pirates Deputy and Birdbirdistheword. It may seem curious that Pirates Deputy is ranked higher despite losing his only race against Birdbird but I feel he has greater potential to go on and excel at distance. He has an excellent closing kick and seems poorly suited to sprint races and routes on tight tracks like Delta Downs. His figures aren't very impressive but he has plenty of time to improve. He also has Baffert's expertise behind him. Birdbirdistheword is a versatile horse who can run on any surface, his Beyer speed figures are lower than most of the horses in the top 10, but he has good speed, a nice turn of foot and he seems to be able to adapt well to many different scenarios. I think he could make a successful transition into the prime time races of the division. Tenfold is a Baffert trained Tiznow colt who runs like a lion and trains like a bear. He needs to learn to rate though, that and run straight. He is captivating when he races and I am looking forward to his stakes debut perhaps more than any other maiden winner in the nation.

On the radar:
Ravel - Maybe the most exciting horse in Pletchers barn who hasnt run in a stakes race yet. He may get that test soon in California. He's bred for it and looked nice breaking his maiden.
Belgravia (9) - Falls in ranking slightly after his Hollywood Futurity. He didnt run terribly, but it was clear that he wasnt as professional as his competitors. He couldnt overcome the pace and he seemed to struggle a bit with the distance
Dilemma (10) - Dilemma has done nothing wrong, but he aslo hasnt done anything since mid-november. I'm going to need to see some workouts and a race out of him to keep him on the radar much longer.
Hard Spun - Untested but brilliant, doesn’t really look like a TC horse to me but I'm open to being convinced.
Pegasus Wind - I don’t really like him in the hands of Lukas but I do think he's got some talent. Whenever Lukas gets him right he could be a real force.
Day Pass - If he were not going to Dubai he'd be in the top 10. Brilliant speed, and maybe enough stamina to go the distance. At any rate a horse with that much talent is going to win some races. But not from Dubai.
Minefield (8) - Dropped from the 8th slot because of his sale to Godolphin. A promising horse but he will be prepared in Dubai and will have limited exposure. He'd have to be something really special.
Les Grands Trois - Maybe one of the best maiden winners I saw all year, however he hasn’t worked since Sept 9th so I don’t know if he'll be around much.
Soaring By - He has been working steadily for over a month now. Has every chance to move forward if he picks up where he left off.

Oaks Top 10 (Jan 8th)

1. Dreaming of Anna (1)
2. Boca Grande (2)
3. Get Ready Bertie (3)
4. Lady Joanne (4)
5. Octave (5)
6. Autobahn Girl (6)
7. Change Up (7)
8. Appealing Zophie (8)
9. Cotton Blossom (9)
10. Baroness Thatcher (new)

This list is unchanged aside from Successful Outlook getting dropped for Baroness Thatcher. Baroness Thatcher looked very good in her first start for Biancone. I always liked her when she ran for the Romans barn but she never quite lived up to her potential. Her win in the Santa Ysabel was excellent. Not a ligths out performance but on par with what constitutes a good race in this division. I think she gets better as the distance increases. Hopefully Biancone has found some keys with her. As for all the other members of the top 10 there is very little to report. With Dreaming of Anna headed for California it looks like there will be a power vacuum in the east one which I expect Boca Grande and Get Ready Bertie to amply fill.

On the radar:
Successful Outlook - She has both talent and mental issues. For a moment she looked like she was going to take the Demoiselle as she pleased then she just shut off. With some maturity I think this amazon might turn into a really serious contender.
Panty Raid – Very impressive maiden winner at Saratoga. She beat Autobahn Girl with distain but hasn’t had any reported workouts since. That is the only thing that keeps her off the list. She may not be around for the campaign.