Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Apr 23rd)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Scat Daddy (2)
3. Dominican (3)
4. Street Sense (4)
5. Nobiz Like Showbiz (5)
6. Hard Spun (6)
7. Curlin (7)
8. Circular Quay (8)
9. Great Hunter (9)
10. Cowtown Cat (10)

This is the last week for the Derby Top 10 so I guess you could say that these are the final standings. This top 10 doesn't actually represent who I would bet on Derby day. It merely represents who I think has the best chance of winning two weeks away from the Derby. I don't want to be pessimistic but it would not shock me to see one Derby hopeful injured or working poorly which might affect how I'd rank them, but I will stick with this ranking which is unchanged from last week. I don't think any horse from the Tesio or the Lexington will have an impact on the Derby. Any Given Saturday remains the top ranked horse and I think it's a fine time to be a fan of his. Although he does not fit the historical profile of a Derby winner I thnk he has a huge chance. The general populace is throwing him out so the price should be right but there have been many positive changes. Garrett Gomez was named the rider and he should give him a better trip from off the pace. Pletcher confirmed that the plan for Any Given Saturday is indeed to take him further back and make one run. He just drilled a bullet with Gomez aboard at Keeneland. He settled off his stablemate and ran him down in the lane. When I first looked at it I was slightly worried because it took Any Given Saturday a long time to get past his stablemate but whoever was riding Pleasant Strike (his workmate) really messed up because the horse took off on him and left Gomez with more work to do than he intended. For all who think this horse is tired look at the closing splits of this work. He went very fast late on. Scat Daddy was likely the most impressive worker of the weekend. Pletcher sent him out alone because he feared he would be too sharp. He may have been right because this was one of those works that was so smooth it almost appeared to be in slow motion. Yet he went 5f in 1:00 flat. Scat Daddy looks ready. As for the rest of this group I would be quite surprised if the winner was not among the 10 mentioned. I think Zanjero is the best horse who I don't have ranked at all but at best he looks like a horse who might plunk up for third or fourth. Next week I'll do a summary of the Top 10 and take a look at how much the ranking has changed since it started in November of 2006.

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Apr 16th)

1. Any Given Saturday (3)
2. Scat Daddy (6)
3. Dominican (new)
4. Street Sense (2)
5. Nobiz Like Showbiz (7)
6. Hard Spun (9)
7. Curlin (new)
8. Circular Quay (10)
9. Great Hunter (1)
10. Cowtown Cat (new)

It seems like we've come a thousand miles since last week. I think one thing was confirmed that I've been thinking for a long time. No one is a clear cut, top notch Derby contender so even horses with huge holes can be ranked highly because everyone has holes. Ketchikan and Notional's injuries were easily the most disappointing events that transpired. I thought both horses could have had an impact on the Derby but they will have to wait for another day. As far as unravelling what happened in the prep races I'll start with the Arkansas Derby. Curlin was in a totally different class than those horses. He may be in a totally different class than every three year old in this crop but his inexperience is a major doubt. He has not even faced a field of 10 horses yet. On talent alone I think he is top 3 material but you need more than raw talent to win the Derby. He basically needs to get a dream trip or be a super horse to win the Derby. Officer Rocket ran very poorly in the Arkansas Derby and won't be in Kentucky. The only other horse from that race who looks like they have a future is Deadly Dealer, but he doesn't have a Derby future. Now the Bluegrass was a mess. I'm not sure if you can trust the 93 Beyer speed figure firstly because of the pace and secondly because of the generally lower figures achieved on Polytrack. Back in the March 19th Derby Top 10 I wrote that the figures for the Blue Grass were likely to be deceivingly low so I'm not about to be deceived by them now. I have given Dominican the top spot among Bluegrass finishers. Although he has run only on Polytrack this year his performances have been fantastic. The only reason he is not the #1 horse on my list is because he may just be a Polytrack specialist. He is 3 for 3 on Polytrack and 0 for 4 on conventional dirt. I cant make him my top selection without a main track win but I do think he will handle the surface. He also has the unfortunate angle of being sired by a sprinter, but when you look at this horse you can see he should get the distance. He will also likely have the distinction of being the only Derby horse with a Dosage figure over 4.00. that has been a neat little contrarian angle in the past 11 years. The ROI for betting such horses is actually very good. You can bet that Dominican will be in the first slot on many of my tickets. Street Sense was not nearly as impressive as I thought he would be. He did not seem comfortable going wide and he was out hustled by Domincan in the lane. Nafzger has time to get him right but I think he is worth opposing on Derby day. I think I will use him primarily underneath. Great Hunter saw his standing plummet big time. I know he got shut off and I know he is a very very good horse but from a historical perspective he would be the biggest upset winner since Sea Hero. Because of that poor result in the Blue Grass he fits less historical criteria than even Giacomo. I'm not a slave to history but it would be a huge task for him. That means Any Given Saturday has defaulted his way back to the top spot. He is not a solid Derby contender. He has all sorts of weaknesses, but he is no less likely than anyone else. A horse who has been quietly good is Scat Daddy. He may be a forgotten horse a bit but he fits a Derby winners profile very well. The reason he is not the #1 is that I feel that Any Given Saturday is a better horse when at his best. Last week I said that I did not consider Cowtown Cat a Derby horse, well opinions change and this change is mostly due to the fact that a bunch of horses got injured or ran poorly in their last prep. At this point the top 3 horses are the only ones that I would consider betting to win in the Derby. Given the relative weakness of many of the contenders in my top 10 I think the Lexington may produce a contender. Possibly Liquidity will get a third kick at the can if his connections choose to go.

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Apr 9th)

1. Great Hunter (2)
2. Street Sense (3)
3. Any Given Saturday (1)
4. Ketchikan (6)
5. Notional (8)
6. Scat Daddy (9)
7. Nobiz Like Showbiz (7)
8. Officer Rocket (10)
9. Hard Spun (4)
10. Circular Quay (5)

Well, this weekend was nothing if not interesting and it's left me with a few dilemma's. All three of this weekends races were underwhelming, Cowtown Cat got away with a a very slow pace and he beat a bunch of 4th rate horses. I don't consider him a Derby horse at all. Tiago capitalized on what was a very weak Santa Anita Derby and he merely ran past his staggering rivals in the lane. Tiago's Santa Anita Derby was basically just like Giacomo's Kentucky Derby. I do not think he will be able to repeat the trick in the Derby. Despite this crop looking like they're just as slow as the 2005 group. I think we could have a soft pace in the Derby and its hard to see this horse out closing Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay. Liquidity proved that he was overrated from the beginning and Sam P showed that he is nothing special. He is simply a consistent horse who ran a great race two back. Now for the big race, the Wood Memorial. What do we do with Any Given Saturday and Nobiz Like Showbiz? As you can see Any Given Saturday has been demoted to 3rd place in my top 10. It is the lowest ranking he has had since the Top 10 began in November. By default Great Hunter becomes the 3rd horse to be ranked #1 (Tiz Wonderful was #1 until his injury) I think most would agree with Any Given Saturday no longer being #1 but many will think that he is still too high. Allow me explain my thinking. The Wood Memorial was not a good race for him. He again failed to pass a horse in the stretch and he looked washed out in the final 1/8th. He clearly does not fit the profile of what a Derby winner should look like. However with every prep race that passes it is becoming increasingly obvious that virtually no one is fitting the bill. I think he still looks like the best of the rest, at least until the last major preps are run. His past performance lines look eerily similar to Bluegrass Cat's and I will be using him underneath on Derby day. I hope John Velasquez is not on this horse for the Derby. In my opinion he has butchered his last two races. Nobiz Like Showbiz only maintained his spot because Hard Spun and Circular Quay have been moved down. I do not really like the proposed schedules for those two horses and Circular Quay in particular has a lot of question marks. But back to Nobiz, I figured the blinkers would not be the magic bullet and although he won the race I don't think they had much effect. Yes, they made him run straighter, they did not however aid him in running faster. This race looked something like the Holy Bull and Nobiz Like Shobiz really has not gotten any better in my opinion. I prefer both of the horses coming out of the Florida Derby to him, and although he beat Any Given Saturday this time at least with the Pletcher horse we know he is capable of better. That was Nobiz's best shot and although it does look "fast enough" to compete with the rest of the crop he simply does not look good enough. Ketchikan has ridden the wave of disappointments all the way to 4th. He still has everything to prove and really maybe only a win in Arkansas would be good enough. I have also deleted my radar list, at this stage in the season there is no need for one. Curlin would be the only horse on it anyhow. I am very much looking forward to see how he and Ketchikan matchup. The Blue Grass will most likely not decide anything unless one of the big two runs very poorly. Did we see the Derby winner run this past weekend? My instinct says no, but then again this does not appear to be a very fast group so anything is possible.

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Apr 2nd)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Street Sense (3)
4. Hard Spun (4)
5. Circular Quay (5)
6. Ketchikan (6)
7. Nobiz Like Showbiz (8)
8. Notional (7)
9. Scat Daddy (9)
10. Officer Rocket (new)

The only race of any impact to be run this week was the Florida Derby and I think this race was more the kind that eliminated contenders rather than adding any. Nice to see that I wasnt dreaming when I observed that Scat Daddy is much better when racing outside. Pletcher himself noted the same. I wonrder if they'll choose an outside berth for him in the Derby? Scat Daddy may have won the race but he doesnt really move up in the rankings because of it. I thought his race proved very little and in terms of his Derby chances I think Scat Daddy is no more eligable to run a good race than Notional, but the lack of speed shown by these two entrants means that Nobiz Like Showbiz gets put above them for now. At least Nobiz has the chance to improve in his final prep. Notional and Scat Daddy have already shown us what they've got. The only way I can see these two challenging for a top spot is if all the other major preps come in ridiculously slow. Adore the Gold gets dropped and doesnt even get included on the radar. He spent 6 weeks in the top 10 but was never ranked higher than 10th. There was nothing to like about his race and I dont think he will go for the Derby. Stormello gets dropped off the radar. He had never featured in the top 10. Officer Rocket moves into the top 10 for the first time. I see him as this year's Giacomo. He should be running at the end but he could only win races that fall apart. Still he has every chance to boost an exotic payment on the big day. Chelokee has no chance in the Derby in my opinion and I hope he does not enter. Next week we will see another elimination round but we also might see some stars emerge. No horse that is slated to run in the Santa Anita Derby is featured in the top 10. Sam P and Liquidity look like the best candidates to boost their reputations but we'll have to see how it all shakes down. Nobiz Like Showbiz is also gunning for a chance at redemption when he makes his debut in blinkers against Circular Quay and Summer Doldrums in the Wood Memorial.

On the radar: Curlin, Sam P, Liquidity, Zanjero, Summer Doldrums, Teuflesberg, Cobalt Blue

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Mar 26th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Street Sense (3)
4. Hard Spun (new)
5. Circular Quay (4)
6. Ketchikan (6)
7. Notional (7)
8. Nobiz Like Showbiz (8)
9. Scat Daddy (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Like last week the biggest news in this Derby Top 10 is that a horse has forged their way back on the list after being dropped earlier. Hard Spun gets put in the #4 slot which is his highest ever ranking. He had spent 4 weeks in the Top 10 but was never higher than 9th. His Southwest performance saw him moved to the radar list but he never slipped too far from the eye. Hard Spun's performance in the Lane's End stamped him as a bonafide Derby contender. I actually moved him above even Circular Quay. This was one of the best performances by a 3yo this year and his speed figure was superb considering that it was achieved on Polytrack which tends to play a little slowly. The reason I have him above Circular Quay is simple, when two horses have shown near equal ability I will always prefer the horse with more speed. Hard Spun showed that he can rate in the Lane's End but we also know that he enough speed to lay close. Circular Quay will always be somewhat at the mercy of the pace and luck. Horses with speed can make their own luck. It has not escaped my notice that the top 4 horses in this ranking are all headed to the Blue Grass next. I guess you could say I'm looking for the Derby winner to come out of that race. It should be a fantastic contest and a horse could easily finish as bad as 4th and still be a top Derby contender. Ravel was dropped off the list because of injury and Twilight Meteor because his connections are unlikely to pursue the Derby. Cobalt Blue got added to the radar list as did Imawildandcrazyguy who gets one more chance. The Florida Derby, next weekend, will give us an excellent line on Scat Daddy, Notional, Adore The Gold and Stormello. Three of those horses are in my top 10 and given that this is the last expected prep race for them we should know exactly where they stand once they cross the finish line.

On the radar: Officer Rocket, Curlin, Sam P, Liquidity, Zanjero, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg, Cobalt Blue, Imawildandcrazyguy

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Mar 19th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Street Sense (new)
4. Circular Quay (3)
5. Ravel (4)
6. Ketchikan (5)
7. Notional (6)
8. Nobiz Like Showbiz (7)
9. Scat Daddy (8)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Street Sense makes his first reappearance on the Top 10 since Jan 22nd. He had been ranked 4th overall at that stage but concerns over his prep races saw him removed from the list. The trainer changed his tune about the type of preps he was going to give him and he passed his first test with flying colors so he goes right back near the top. At this stage the top 4 horses one the list are the only ones that I consider real Derby winning candidates. The others are sort of the best of the rest. The Tampa Bay Derby was a fantastic spectacle and I think both horses did well. In actual fact I loved Any Given Saturday's race. It was the perfect race to move him forward. I like my Derby horses to be battle tested and many times its actually the loser of the battle who winds up being the better play on Derby day. I think this race showed that these horses are extremely closely matched. Despite Calvin Borel's comments I don't believe that Street Sense is really 20 lengths better than the race he ran. I think he should move up in his next race but so should Any Given Saturday. I do not believe the rumors floating around that a hard race will be bad for Street Sense. I prefer that he had hard race. Victory Gallop, one of the best two prep horses of recent times had a pair of tough races and he was quite ready on Derby day. Beyer wise I don't think either of these horses, or indeed Great Hunter. are likely to fit the common 105 Beyer profile. Their last prep is coming on Polytrack and if I'm not mistaken no horse has ever achieved a figure that high on that surface. It might create some value because I think they will come into the Derby a little light on speed figures. It has not escaped my notice that my top 3 are all planning to prep on Polytrack in the same race. I think it will serve them well and I don't necessarily think that the Blue Grass winner will be the Derby winner. It will be an interesting clash. Law Breaker was the major casualty this week. He was always a longshot to be included and with his physical problems now I cant see him really being a contender. I have Officer Rocket ranked above Curlin on my radar list just because I think Curlin is a better horse but a worse candidate for the Derby. He is inexperienced and I really don't think he will be seasoned enough on Derby day. Officer Rocket on the other hand is this year's Giacomo. He had another curious trip where his rider rushed him up early then lost all initiative and had to regroup. By the time he hit his best stride the race was over. Curlin was clearly going to beat him no matter what but Officer Rocket is the kind of horse that is going to keep on coming. He's looking great to hit the bottom of the Derby super. He's only not in the top 10 because I'm giving Adore the Gold and Hard Spun one more chance at redemption. Cobalt Blue does not appear anywhere on my list. He's a good horse and I hope he makes it to the Derby but I really don't think he's good enough to run with the A grade 3yo's.

On the radar: Hard Spun, Officer Rocket, Curlin, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Liquidity, Zanjero, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (March 12th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Circular Quay (new)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Ketchikan (new)
6. Notional (5)
7. Nobiz Like Showbiz (6)
8. Scat Daddy (7)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

A reorganization is certainly necessary. There will always be prep races that clearly separate the wheat from the chaff and I think we saw them this weekend. Liquidity was a huge disappointment, he has actually been dropped from my top 10 entirely. I still think he is a good horse and he has remained on my radar but he really isn't all I thought he was. I would be very surprised if he managed to capture the Derby even if he rebounds. He is just not able to handle anything other than a slow pace. Circular Quay on the other hand has me firmly back in his corner. I was in love with this horse as a 2yo but I had not to this point been convinced that he runs his best races around two turns. This race won me over and Circular Quay is officially the first horse that I've put back in my top 10 after dropping him. He was ranked as high as 4th until the Risen Star when I dropped him, he now comes in ahead of all but Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter. The reason for that is specific. The Louisiana Derby clearly showed that he can rally strongly and finish well going two turns in a fast time. He was not quite as impressive as Great Hunter but I like his class and experience more than Ravel's precocity. Circular Quay will have a tough time winning the Derby because of traffic and such but he showed his class once again and I have to say one of the things that I've enjoyed the most this season has been seeing how well the BC Juvenile runners have done. Stormello, King of The Roxy, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter and now Circular Quay have come back and re-established themselves as 3yo's. It's nice to see them training on and it does make me take another look at Street Sense, but I'll still hold off on him until he runs next week. He is now the top horse on my radar list and has the chance to break into the top 10 with a good showing in the TB Derby. I thought Birdbirdistheword looked pretty poor and I've dropped him entirely. He just isn't anywhere near fast enough to compete. Ketchikan on the other hand was spectacular and once again recorded a respectable Beyer of 98. He got a terrible ride and either was too rank for the rider to hold or the rider simply had a lapse in judgement. He stuck on gamely as long as he could but was just outclassed. This horse will win himself a stakes race and it could be soon. Despite his inexperience he is one of the fastest 3yo's out there right now. Zanjero on the other hand isn't very fast, he's just a solid underneath type of horse. That worked okay for Steppenwolfer but I don't see this horse as winner. Summer Doldrums goes neither up nor down. He has never been on my top 10 list because I was skeptical of his 106 Beyer figure that came out of nowhere. He regressed this time and really looked poor despite being slightly disadvantaged by the ride he got., but we know he is capable of big races on occasion so he stays on the radar. Cowtown Cat really is not fast enough to compete with the top 3yo's around two turns.

On the radar: Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Liquidity (3), Zanjero, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg

You can now view the entire Derby Top 10 archive by clicking on the header in the sidebar that says "Kentucky Derby Top 10 (date)".

Future Wager Pool #2 recap

Based on my analysis from a few days ago I would not have made any plays in the Derby Future bet Pool #2. None of the prices really struck my fancy aside from the one on Summer Doldrums, but he ran much worse than I could have expected. In the Oaks pool I decided to take the plunge with Appealing Zophie despite her loss. It was just a disastrous race for her and I think she can bounce back. She could easily come back well in a race like the Fantasy or the Ashland and right on track. There was nothing else of note that I would have suggested taking.

Derby Pool #2
No plays

Oaks Pool #2
Appealing Zophie 27/1

Derby and Oaks Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Mar 5th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (3)
3. Liquidity (5)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Notional (6)
6. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Great Hunter definitely gave the best performance of the weekend. He looked like a monster and the move he made around the far turn was top notch. His pilot need to get after him a bit in the lane as Sam P wasn't not going away but you cant expect Great Hunter to do everything in his first start back. He got a solid 101 Beyer Figure which is right up there with the best two turn figures achieved this year. This race all but confirmed my suspicion that of the top 4 finishers in the BC Juvenile this was the horse who promised to be the best 3yo. of course we haven't seen Street Sense so that could change. But Great Hunter's race was nearly enough to see him in the top spot. Liquidity also moved up in the rankings, I slightly prefer him to Ravel now because of the lack of experience the Pletcher horse will likely have. Of course Liquidity still has all to prove when he runs in the Louisiana Derby, but the rumors floating around from the O'Neill barn are that he's actually the best of his trio. Nobiz Like Showbiz was the big loser of the week, all in all this was a disaster for him as he went backwards in nearly every respect. He still has never recorded a three figure Beyer. He looked all at sea in the lane and they weren't even going very fast. Sure he was green and unprofessional and that maybe can be fixed but he has one more race before the Derby and he has tons of issues to sort out in that one start. He still could do it because he has always hinted at having a great talent but I no longer regard him as a prime Derby contender. Scat Daddy justified his place in my rankings but I don't think his performance warrants moving him up. This was just proof that I had him placed right already. Most likely this horse is not going to win the Derby, I don't think he has a great chance of that at all but he could hit the frame. He's a solid classy little guy who is dangerous when he gets his trip which is making one run on the outside. Stormello looked good visually in the Fountain of Youth but they were crawling home. He has never featured in my top 10 because of concerns over his preparation. Currin talked repeatedly about the UAE Derby and the possibility of having just one prep. I respect his adventurous spirit but it makes me nervous, especially considering that his horse really isn't that fast and looks unlikely to stay 10f. I added both he and Sam P to my radar. Sam P has been around and is likely not going to have any real impact but I thought he ran a good race in the Bob Lewis and at this stage its hard to come up with more than a handful of real Derby type horses. Adore the Gold hangs on to his #10 spot only just. He couldn't close into a very slow final 1/8th but he did have the outside post so I'll give him one more race to show he belongs.

On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg


Oaks Top 10 (Mar)

1. Rags To Riches (new)
2. Boca Grande (2)
3. Baroness Thatcher (9)
4. Christmas Kid (new)
5. Get Ready Bertie (3)
6. Appealing Zophie (7)
7. Octave (5)
8. Autobahn Girl (6)
9. Cotton Blossom (8)
10. Runway Rosie (new)

Things have been much quieter on the Oaks front. There have really only been a few races that have had an impact. The greatest impact has likely been in eliminating horses. Dreaming of Anna is off the top 10 and is unlikely to even make it to the Oaks. She had two pretty bad losses and doesn't look to have trained on. Rags to Riches is the new kid on the block, she is woefully inexperienced but looks much better than the rest of the division. Baroness Thatcher who ran her to a nose in her last also makes a significant jump in the rankings. This filly is a bit underrated, I wouldn't rule her out of winning the big one. A lot of the big names from last season have really yet to get going. Boca Grande hasn't been seen in a while neither has Octave or Cotton Blossom. Lady Joanne got dropped off the list entirely because she hasn't recorded a workout yet this year. Appealing Zophie was tremendously impressive in her first start back and looks like she could move up even higher. Christmas Kid has quietly been the best distance filly in Florida in 2007. She doesn't have the back class of some of the bigger names but she may have improved beyond them.

On the radar: Early Vintage (10)

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Feb 26th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (5)
6. Notional (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Very little to report this week. The biggest news is that some horses have been dropped from the radar. Exhale who was highly touted by nearly everyone is off the trail. He was always facing an uphill battle to get himself there and know he's picked up an injury. Exhale never featured in my top 10 despite his brilliant maiden win. Belgravia has also been dropped because of the news that he is battling illness. I wondered if he was good enough to begin with. Now it looks as though we may not see him at all this spring. Street Sense's connections also reported that he is no longer set for the Hutcheson. His targets are now the Tampa Bay Derby where he would meet Any Given Saturday or the Rushaway. This is a partial positive because now it means that Street Sense will have two prep races around two turns. Which I think is very important, however he doesnt move back into the top 10 because it worries me that this horse is behind. His trainer said he simply wasn't ready for the Hutcheson. That's not a positive sign at this time of year. He could still get back into the top 10 but I'll wait until I see his debut. Twilight Meteor was the only 3yo of note to run this weekend. He won the Hallandale Beach stakes on Turf at Gulfstream and earned a 94 Beyer speed figure. I dont know yet if this horse is being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby. He has never run on dirt but he did get a 97 Beyer when winning a stakes on the polytrack. He will most likely be pointed for the Queen's Plate since he is a Canadian bred but he might start next in the Lane's End. A win in that race and the allure of the Derby might be too much for his connections to resist. He should handle the distance well and he has a nice long stride. He is certainly an interesting prospect and he debuts on my radar list this week. Another Canadian bred Buffalo Man also gets added to the radar ahead of his race in the Fountain of Youth.

On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Teuflesberg, Buffalo Man

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Feb 20th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (5)
6. Notional (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (10)
10. Adore The Gold (new)

The Derby trail has started in earnest. From now on there will be contenders racing virtually every single weekend. This weekend featured the long awaited 2007 debut of Any Given Saturday and well his race was sort of anti-climatic which was what I was looking for. He rated kindly, took the lead easily and was a tad green but won under a hand ride and got a 95 Beyer for the effort. It was a good debut but he will need to get much better by Derby time. He has every chance to do so though and I much preferred his debut to Nobiz Like Showbiz's. Hard Spun was the other big name to run this weekend and he flopped badly. He layed over the field on paper but he had the outside post, never got the front and faded after making a smart move off the turn. He actually looked as if the distance was a little too much on him. He also appeared more comfortable on the lead. I'm keeping him on my radar for now but this was a very disappointing race. As a result Law Breaker actually moves up the rankings and Adore The Gold makes his first appearance in the top 10. The other noteworthy performance of the weekend was from Ketchikan. This Albert Stall 3yo won a two turn allowance race at the Fair Grounds in ultra impressive fashion. He got a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort and that puts him right in the mix with the top members of the crop. He will need a class test, and his breeding doesn't scream 10f so he's just the top pick on my radar list for now. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw bigger things from him. Major Pleasure also gets dropped from the radar after his failure in allowance company. Teuflesberg gets on the radar for his Southwest.

On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun (9), Belgravia, Exhale, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Teuflesberg

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Feb 12th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (6)
6. Notional (7)
7. Scat Daddy (8)
8. Birdbirdistheword (9)
9. Hard Spun (10)
10. Law Breaker (new)

As with so many Derby preps the Risen Star and Whirlaway were more about eliminating horses from the Derby trail than they were about unearthing new and exciting prospects. Summer Doldrums will be seen on a few lists after his smashing win in the Whirlaway and the gaudy 106 Beyer figure. But for me he just makes it on the radar. I respect Violette very much but I don't like the fact that this horse wasn't sent to Florida with the rest of the string. I'm also always skeptical about horse running huge figures out of nowhere. I'll need to see another good race from him to include him in the top 10. The Whirlaway all but eliminated Lawrence The Roman from the Derby. I have not been a big fan of his chances, he has never even featured on my radar list but out of respect for his owner (who in my opinion has conducted himself very well) I haven't mentioned him in a negative light. The Risen Star told us nothing new about Notional. This was exactly the same Notional who won the San Rafael, he didn't improve in this race thus he doesn't leap over anyone in the standings except Circular Quay, which was more due to Pletcher's horse dropping. Notional needs to get faster in order to be a Derby horse but he has time for that. As of right now he is undefeated on normal dirt and he has been visually impressive. Circular Quay goes off the list but stays on the radar. He lost all chance when the spill happened in front of him but really he wasn't going to win without something supersonic in the lane. My suspicion is that he isn't as effective at two turns. He wont be back on the list until he proves me wrong. The new addition to my top 10 may be a bit of a reckless head-scratcher but the more I see of Law Breaker the more I like. This horse burned me when he held off my choice in his career debut to win at 50/1. He then went straight into stakes company and was third beaten just by a neck in a blanket finish. Both of those starts however were on the grass, he then switched to the main track in a two turn allowance and he won. He cut back in distance for the San Vicente but I thought he ran a stellar race against horses who were clearly much quicker. He has not yet received any big time speed figures that would lead you to believe that he is a top flight horse but he's a waiter and a fighter. He doesn't open up on horses he waits for them a bit but he also loves a good fight. I'm sure Baffert will toss him into tougher company around two turns next out. He could surprise some people.

On the radar: Adore the Gold, Circular Quay (5), Street Sense, Belgravia, Major Pleasure, Exhale, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Minefield


Future Book Follow-up

Based on the closing prices these would have been my future wager plays. For some reason the O'Niell/Reddam trio didnt get very much support. I know I didnt mention Notional in my original Future Book Analysis but I was not expecting such a huge price on him. Also the two fillies mentioned below did not look enticing on the morning line but their final prices were quite reasonable.

Derby Future Wager
Pool #1
Great Hunter - 24/1
Liquidity - 33/1
Notional - 27/1

Oaks Future Wager
Pool #1
Baroness Thatcher - 33/1
Get Ready Bertie - 31/1

Derby and Oaks Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Feb 5th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (10)
5. Circular Quay (4)
6. Liquidity (new)
7. Notional (7)
8. Scat Daddy (5)
9. Birdbirdistheword (8)
10. Hard Spun (9)

The first big week of preps brought the first big shakeups to the top 10. The biggest loser this week was without a doubt Pirates Deputy. He has always moved in a promising manner but his figs were pretty slow. Now when he encounters a fast race for the first time he was nowhere to be found. He stays on the radar only just. The Sham Stakes also produced the two biggest positive movers. I was very very impressed with Ravel and Liquidity. Ravel got a 102 for the race and already appears as if he is going to be one of the Derby favorites. He doesn't look like the finished article yet but this was an excellent prep race. I think the best place to look for top Derby prospects is usually right behind the high figure winners. Liquidity was superb in this race but I think he's still going to be underrated a bit. I'm not going to underrate him at all, O'Niell has 3 top notch Derby horses. Nobiz Like Showbiz was a tad more workmanlike in his Holy Bull effort but the race did not diminish his status in any way. I did not think it good enough to claim the top spot but it was a useful prep race. Now he can go on to two turn races. Drums of Thunder ran a great race and is unlucky not be included on my radar. Scat Daddy falls in the rankings a bit but this race wasn't terrible. It was not all that fast which I suppose could be worrisome but Scat Daddy is also not going to run his best race forcing a quick pace like that. The best horse to run and not get on my list is Adore the Gold. He has always been fast and he showed it again on Saturday. The question is, can he do that going two turns? I have a soft spot for him because I was a fan of his brilliant father, but bias aside this horse is a runner and he could find himself in the top 10 before too long. Curlin broke his maiden impressively and he goes on the radar because of it. But lets get real he is only on there on the off chance that he is a real superstar. More than likely he a sprinter type, and having just made his first start this past weekend he is way behind the rest of this group in terms of preparation. Forefathers ran an interesting race but I am not the biggest fan of Nick Zito in the Derby of late. He gets his horses there but they tend to be more impressive in February and March than they are in May.

On the radar: Adore the Gold, Street Sense, Belgravia, Major Pleasure, Exhale, Curlin, Day Pass, Minefield, Came To Pass, Pirates Deputy (6)

Oaks Top 10 (Feb)

1. Dreaming of Anna (1)
2. Boca Grande (2)
3. Get Ready Bertie (3)
4. Lady Joanne (4)
5. Octave (5)
6. Autobahn Girl (6)
7. Appealing Zophie (8)
8. Cotton Blossom (9)
9. Baroness Thatcher (10)
10. Early Vintage (new)

Not many changes to this list as this grouped really hasn't got going yet. The is talk that Dreaming of Anna could be Derby bound but for now She stays a top this list. She looks set to make her 2007 debut sometime this weekend in either the Davona Dale or the Old Hat. Get Ready Bertie and Appealing Zophie look set for a clash in the Silverbulletday. Get Ready Bertie's figures have been pretty slow but she wins or runs very well so I can't fault her. Her stablemate Change Up is out injured so now she becomes the stable's #1, a position I always felt was rightfully hers anyway. Autobahn Girl look fabulous when beating Sealy Hill in an allowance. She may be small but she's got some class. The new addition to the top 10 is Early Vintage. This Team Valor filly ran, in my opinion, the most impressive maiden race by a filly in all of 2006. I had been touting her for the Breeders Cup but she got injured. She seems to be back now and could get back to the races soon. Panty Raid is also set to get back to the races soon. The Las Virgenes, a weak G-1 in my opinion but a G-1 nonetheless, should give us a good line on the Californian fillies who are admittedly absent from my top 10. I just haven't seen anything worth following from California as yet. Maybe something will emerge this weekend.

On the radar: Panty Raid, Romance Is Diane

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Jan 29th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Circular Quay (5)
5. Scat Daddy (6)
6. Pirates Deputy (7)
7. Notional (8)
8. Birdbirdistheword (9)
9. Hard Spun (9)
10. Ravel (new)

The biggest change in this top 10 is that Street Sense has been dropped from the list. This is the second major defection in a row after Tiz Wonderful was removed the week prior. Street Sense is fine physically but I have severe doubts about his suitability for Derby success after hearing the plans for his prep races. My concerns are outlined in more detail here but suffice it to say I think Street Sense, despite the confidence of his trainer, will not perform well in the Derby. So I dont see any point in keeping him on my top 10 list. Ravel gets upgraded to 10th by default. His stakes debut is this weekend in the Sham and he has all to prove. I added Major Pleasure to my on the radar list. He has looked fantastic in his two starts. He hasnt tried two turns yet but he moves like he wants extra ground and he is remarkably professional for a young horse. Pegasus Wind has been dropped from my radar because of his terrible comback effort at oaklawn. I know Lukas never gives up on a horse and we will still likely see him in some stakes races but he looked bad. Adore the Gold is a bit of a longshot who definitely needs to prove that he can run with graded stakes company but he has looked so good against lesser horses. The preps start in earnest this coming weekend. We'll have Nobiz vs Scat Daddy, Ravel vs Liquidity and many more. Stay tuned!

On the radar: Street Sense (4), Belgravia, Major Pleasure, Exhale, Day Pass, Minefield, Tenfold, Came To Pass, Adore the Gold, Dilemma

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Jan 22nd)

1. Any Given Saturday (2)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (3)
3. Great Hunter (4)
4. Street Sense (5)
5. Circular Quay (6)
6. Scat Daddy (7)
7. Pirates Deputy (8)
8. Notional (9)
9. Birdbirdistheword (10)
10. Hard Spun (new)

It's a sad update of the Derby top 10 with the news that Tiz Wonderful will miss the Derby. He has been the top ranked horse in the 2007 rankings since its inception in November of 2006. Still the march goes on and I'm sure he wont be the last horse to hit the sidelines. Our new top ranked Derby horse is a horse who I felt would eventually be better than Tiz Wonderful and that is Any Given Saturday. He has the look of a Derby winner. He is talented, and has a touch of brilliance, he is still raw but showed some toughness. He comes form off the pace but he's got great quickness and the best turn of foot of his generation. He may be the horse to finally give Pletcher a Derby win. Hard Spun breaks into the top 10 for the first time courtesy of Tiz's defection. Whether or not he stays there will decided when the next round of preps begin. Some of you may be wondering why Stormello still has no place in either the rankings nor on the radar. The big reason is because despite his talent I believe this horse will be mismanaged and underprepared for the Derby. The latest quote from his trainer Currin that suggested he could go straight to the Derby without a prep only strengthens my position. I think he'll end up with one prep, the UAE Derby.

On the radar: Ravel, Belgravia, Dilemma, Pegasus Wind, Exhale, Day Pass, Minefield, Tenfold, Came To Pass

Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Jan 16th)

1. Tiz Wonderful (1)
2. Any Given Saturday (2)
3. Nobiz Like Showbiz (3)
4. Great Hunter (4)
5. Street Sense (5)
6. Circular Quay (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Pirates Deputy (8)
9. Notional (new)
10. Birdbirdistheword (9)


The real news this week came from the San Rafael and the LeComte. Many people were mightily impressed with Hard Spun. Unbeaten abd thus far untested he is drawing comparison with Smarty Jones. Up to this point though his career best Beyer is 95 so clearly he is a little slower than Smarty was at that stage. He just fails to make the 10 for a few reasons. First of all he wasnt facing very good horses. Second I didnt really like his action in the lane he seemed somehow awkward to me and finally he seems to prefer to be in front. Maybe its just because he outclassed them but I'm not going to give preference to him with that running style when Notional was in my mind more impressive and he comes from off the pace. Notional will have to improve his figures to show that he is fast enough to win the Derby. A 92 wont cut it, but I view this race as sort of a place to get on track. He got on track in a big way, I loved the way he was moving down the straight, powerful and professional. His breeding may be a question mark but the way he looked on Saturday suggests that 9f at least should not be a problem. Birdbirdistheword gets moved down slighty because Notional at this stage has shown more capacity for brilliance. Tenfold was a bit of a disappointment. It was like he hit a wall in the straight. I think he has talent but Baffert is goign to need to rethink his running style or his Derby aspirations.

On the radar:
Hard Spun, Ravel, Belgravia, Dilemma, Pegasus Wind, Exhale Day Pass, Minefield, Tenfold (10), Came To Pass

Derby and Oaks Top 10

I will be posting my top 10 for the Derby and Oaks each week from now until 2 weeks before the Derby. My Derby top 10 will stay on the sidebar all the time. These horses are ranked according to my interpretation of thier talent and suitability to the Derby conditions. I wont be writing a complete rundown of each horse each week. I'll mostly just be mentioning those who did something nothworty during that time period or if the rankings changed. The horses listed in the "on the radar" section are essentially those next in line to assume a place in the top 10. I posted the original version of this list on November 28th. If you would care to read it, it can be found here.

Derby Top 10 (Jan 8th)

1. Tiz Wonderful (1)
2. Any Given Saturday (2)
3. Nobiz Like Showbiz (3)
4. Great Hunter (4)
5. Street Sense (5)
6. Circular Quay (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Pirates Deputy (new)
9. Birdbirdistheword (new)
10. Tenfold (new)

No changes of the highest ranked horses from when I last posted this ranking in December. None of them have been involved in anything noteworthy that would see them dropped or move up the rankings. That is likely to remain the case throughout January. The new additions are Pirates Deputy and Birdbirdistheword. It may seem curious that Pirates Deputy is ranked higher despite losing his only race against Birdbird but I feel he has greater potential to go on and excel at distance. He has an excellent closing kick and seems poorly suited to sprint races and routes on tight tracks like Delta Downs. His figures aren't very impressive but he has plenty of time to improve. He also has Baffert's expertise behind him. Birdbirdistheword is a versatile horse who can run on any surface, his Beyer speed figures are lower than most of the horses in the top 10, but he has good speed, a nice turn of foot and he seems to be able to adapt well to many different scenarios. I think he could make a successful transition into the prime time races of the division. Tenfold is a Baffert trained Tiznow colt who runs like a lion and trains like a bear. He needs to learn to rate though, that and run straight. He is captivating when he races and I am looking forward to his stakes debut perhaps more than any other maiden winner in the nation.

On the radar:
Ravel - Maybe the most exciting horse in Pletchers barn who hasnt run in a stakes race yet. He may get that test soon in California. He's bred for it and looked nice breaking his maiden.
Belgravia (9) - Falls in ranking slightly after his Hollywood Futurity. He didnt run terribly, but it was clear that he wasnt as professional as his competitors. He couldnt overcome the pace and he seemed to struggle a bit with the distance
Dilemma (10) - Dilemma has done nothing wrong, but he aslo hasnt done anything since mid-november. I'm going to need to see some workouts and a race out of him to keep him on the radar much longer.
Hard Spun - Untested but brilliant, doesn’t really look like a TC horse to me but I'm open to being convinced.
Pegasus Wind - I don’t really like him in the hands of Lukas but I do think he's got some talent. Whenever Lukas gets him right he could be a real force.
Day Pass - If he were not going to Dubai he'd be in the top 10. Brilliant speed, and maybe enough stamina to go the distance. At any rate a horse with that much talent is going to win some races. But not from Dubai.
Minefield (8) - Dropped from the 8th slot because of his sale to Godolphin. A promising horse but he will be prepared in Dubai and will have limited exposure. He'd have to be something really special.
Les Grands Trois - Maybe one of the best maiden winners I saw all year, however he hasn’t worked since Sept 9th so I don’t know if he'll be around much.
Soaring By - He has been working steadily for over a month now. Has every chance to move forward if he picks up where he left off.

Oaks Top 10 (Jan 8th)

1. Dreaming of Anna (1)
2. Boca Grande (2)
3. Get Ready Bertie (3)
4. Lady Joanne (4)
5. Octave (5)
6. Autobahn Girl (6)
7. Change Up (7)
8. Appealing Zophie (8)
9. Cotton Blossom (9)
10. Baroness Thatcher (new)

This list is unchanged aside from Successful Outlook getting dropped for Baroness Thatcher. Baroness Thatcher looked very good in her first start for Biancone. I always liked her when she ran for the Romans barn but she never quite lived up to her potential. Her win in the Santa Ysabel was excellent. Not a ligths out performance but on par with what constitutes a good race in this division. I think she gets better as the distance increases. Hopefully Biancone has found some keys with her. As for all the other members of the top 10 there is very little to report. With Dreaming of Anna headed for California it looks like there will be a power vacuum in the east one which I expect Boca Grande and Get Ready Bertie to amply fill.

On the radar:
Successful Outlook - She has both talent and mental issues. For a moment she looked like she was going to take the Demoiselle as she pleased then she just shut off. With some maturity I think this amazon might turn into a really serious contender.
Panty Raid – Very impressive maiden winner at Saratoga. She beat Autobahn Girl with distain but hasn’t had any reported workouts since. That is the only thing that keeps her off the list. She may not be around for the campaign.