Graduation day

This weekend is underwhelming to say the least. A 4 horse field in the Palos Verdes, and weak fields in the First Lady and Aqueduct Handicaps leave us with very little of quality to analyse. I also make it a habit never to lend an opinion in a race where I dont feel like I have a good prospect and I'm just not feeling any of the big stakes. I am still hoping that the San Marcos draws a good field but at the time of writing the field hasnt been drawn yet. So I'm shifting my focus to some lower class races. Remember a 5/1 winner in a maiden is still the same as a 5/1 winner in a stakes race.

Gulfstream Race #7
Here we have a full field of maidens going 6.5f on the GP main strip. 5 of the entrants are first timers and some of them debut for big time maiden stables like McLaughlin, Harty and Sciametta (Pletcher). I am generally wary of first time starters in fields with more experienced horses. Obviously one of them could easily step up and win but its hard to see them coming and generally you're wasting your money. Its better to try and interpret the form of the horses who have already run. General Beach is the first that stands out, he took money in his first effort and just ran flatly around the track but is coming in second time for Zito who is sharp with this type. He loves to move them up second time and with Bejarano on board it looks like he is confident. I'm not sure what price he'll be because his morning line of 12/1 seems ridiculously high. Even his dull first time effort was as good as anyone other horses career best in this one. I prefer him but only if his price stays above 5/1. A longshot that interests me very much is Bold Promise, if the Zito horse gets bet down he'll be my primary selection. I'd be surprised if this horse got much support off a 7th place finish in his only start. But looking inside at the race I think this guy is live. He goes turf to dirt which he should like. He's shown fast works over the dirt and he flashed speed in his debut. That at least shows that he has some inkling of what racing is about. But one of the other big draws for me is that he is trained by Bill Kaplan who is an underrated master with young horses. He adds blinkers and is 30% with that move. He is also quite good with second career starts. His horses tend to get overlooked as this one will but he could light up the tote. I also have to respect Shaami the first timer for McLaughlin. His stable has done very well and Shadwell likes thier charges running well first up, especially when they cost $900k. He owns a quick work and gets the stables money jock.

1)General Beach
2)Bold Promise
3)Shaami

Santa Anita Race #4
I dont think much of many of the entrants in this race. There are some first timers that could surprise like Frankel's Take Care but really I this race belongs to Montara. She fits the profile perfectly. Second time out for a solid trainer. A prime time jockey, showed excellent ability in her first effort but got a little sidetracked in the straight. I think Montara stands out in this contest.

1)Montara

Santa Anita Race #7
This isnt a maiden race but it looks like an opportunity to nab a winner. Right now there is no hotter trainer in the land than Bobby Frankel. Isolate the Frankel horses that are owned by Stronach and you get an even scarier win pct. Frankel and Stronach had a bunch of very promising but underachieving 3yo's. They included Cittronade, Sugar Shake, Sugar Swirl and Cotton King. All of the horses on that list have won thier 2007 debut impressively aside from Cotton King whom we see entered here., He has the talent to blow this field away and although he has struggled to get in the winners circle in the past I think you'll see him shake off those shackles and put in a good effort.

1)Cotton King