New BC Format, Rethought

A few days ago just after the news of the Breeders Cup expansion broke my first reaction was positive. I liked that they were open to change and trying new things. However upon further reflection I'm no so sure about this move, I would say I'm officially undecided. Here are some of the impacts it could have both positive and negative.

One negative that is clear right off the bat if that these new races will dilute the quality of the Breeders Cup races. Look around, which horses last year would have filled the Filly and Mare Sprint? Behaving Badly, Malibu Mint and maybe Dubai Escapade. Beyond that there weren’t really any G-1 quality sprinting mares that were healthy at the time. So the Breeders Cup, the championship day (weekend) of racing will now feature a lot more horses who have no business competing for a championship.

Increased segregation is another negative. Call me old fashioned but I love when horses try new things, step out of their division etc.... These races pander to the niches of specific horses and it means that we will now fail to see any filly sprinters in the BC Sprint. Fillies by the way have had much success in the BC Sprint historically. 36 Fillies have run in the 23 editions of the BC Sprint. Their cumulative record is 3-7-0, a flat win bet on every filly in the sprint would have yielded a 31% ROI. They held their own and won as many races as they were statistically probable to do. In summation, I don’t see why the fillies needed their own sprint. The dirt mile will also take horses away from the sprint.

There are also no logical reasons behind having these particular races. Historically the Breeders Cup was lined up with the different recognized divisions and also then lined up with the year end awards. There is no award directly connected to any of these races. In some cases there is no division to speak of, or even logical prep races in place. What race would a dirt miler prep in? The Cigar Mile is after the Breeders Cup and the Met Mile is the only other significant Mile race on the calendar. The Juvenile Turf is mostly about attracting Europeans, but the bulk of the field is still going to be made up of Americans. There is only one graded stake that is run on the turf prior to the Breeders Cup and that is the Summer stakes at Woodbine.

From a point standings perspective it throws a lot of things up in the air. For instance the way the graded stakes schedule is it will make it much easier for a female sprinter to earn the most points. On one hand its nice because now it is possible for a horse like Xtra Heat to dominate as an older mare and get some recognition in the Older Mare category, which is dominated by routers. However at the same time it means a lot of fillies who are inferior to the males will be able to earn more points without stepping out of their division.

Now for some positives. I think the Juvenile Turf specifically will encourage some positive changes. First of all more Europeans are going to come, they will smell the easy money and come in droves. We may even see the cream of the Euro juveniles. Another thing this will do is cause racetracks to start carding more turf races for youngsters. There is now a reason to have more than Turf maiden races or state bred $50k stakes races. With more money and focus shifting to Turf racing for juveniles we will hopefully see more juveniles running on the surface and in my opinion Turf is a better, kinder surface for juveniles. Another possible benefit of this is that we start breeding for Turf a little more and if certain American juvenile look very impressive in the BC they might even be tempted to contest the European Classics. I do like anything that encourages international competition.

I think having more Breeders Cup races that do not specifically line up by division will mean a slight shift away from a Breeders Cup centered season as far as year end awards are concerned. It will force people to stop simply taking the BC winner and touting them for the Eclipse award. For instance there may now be two Juvenile colts who have won BC races. One hit wonders like Action This Day wont get as much support if there is a good looking Turf alternative. The BC Sprint winner is no longer the shoe in for the Eclipse, the Filly and Mare Sprint winner will get some consideration. Same with the BC Classic and the BC Dirt Mile. They are essentially competing races, and like the situation we have now with the BC Turf and the BC Mile, a win in one of them doesn’t necessarily entitle you to the year end award. So it brings more balance from that perspective.

Overall I'd say I'm still undecided. I can see some positives and negatives. I think that I'm not opposed to the Breeders Cup expanding, but I think they picked the wrong races to expand with. The fastest growing division in North America is the Turf Sprint division. There would be lots of international interest as well. I think that should have been added. I like The Juvenile Turf race, but I'm not a big fan of either of the dirt races they added.