Win And You're No More Likely To Be In

Although Lahaleeb earned a guaranteed spot in the Filly and Mare Turf through her E.P. Taylor victory, Channon expressed skepticism about the Breeders' Cup Win and You're In program, noting the prohibitive fees for horses not nominated to the Cup.

"In that sense," he said, "Win and You're In is a bit misleading."

The excerpt above was taken from the Daily Racing Form and I think Mick Channon has just voiced the sentiment of many people in racing.

Right from the very beginning people questioned the purpose and effectiveness of the "Win and You're In" program. It just didn't make sense. Then there was the issue they had with snubbing the major NYRA races. We were told to give it some time and let it play out but let's look at how it's playing out so far this year.

There were 60 "Win and You're In" qualifying races this year that were won by 58 different horses. Swift Temper and Magical Fantasy were the only horses to win two qualifying races. Here is a list of all the Win And You're In race winners and their likely involvement on Breeders' Cup Day.



So from 58 horses we have just 26 that are likely to run in the race they qualified for.

Tell me, from a marketing perspective, how does Win And You're In really help the Breeders' Cup increase exposure or how does it help fans follow the major contenders for each race?

The Classic division is likely the worst of all. Rip Van Winkle, Gio Ponti, Mastercraftsman and Zenyatta if she comes will have all opted out of the other races they qualified for in order to contest the Classic while only two "WAYI" qualifiers for the Classic will be there.

Win And You're In does not make it easier for fans to follow the buildup to the big day. Nor does it really grant guaranteed entry because supplemental fees have to be paid for some entrants. The races they've chosen are also pretty illogical.

I can certainly think of many more arguments in favor of scrapping the program than I can for keeping it.

Grading The Graded Stakes

It was a major weekend of prep racing but were all preps created equal? We all know the answer to that question. Some races look good on paper before hand but turn out to be slow, some races are turned upside down by the result and some races look like they were already a mini version of the Breeders' Cup. Here is my take on the races we saw this weekend and the impact they might have. The grades and description of the grades are listed below.

A (More than one major BC contender was in action)
Oak Leaf - The California juvenile preps are usually where the eventual BC winners are found when the BC itself is also in California. Always a Princess and Blind Luck look especially good but you also just have to respect any horse that comes out of this race.
Norfolk - It's more than likely that the Juvenile winner was in this race. Lookin At Lucky will be hard to deny but even Pulsion, Gallant Gent and Dave in Dixie look like the next best things. Not much strength in the east at present.
Morvich - If a North American is going to win the Turf Sprint then they're likely coming out of this race. California Flag, Get Funky and Bruce's Dream all ran excellent races and don't forget that Desert Code exited a dull performance in this race last year to score on BC day.

B (Either several BC contenders or just one single major contender)
Jockey Club Gold Cup - Summer Bird, Quality Road and Macho Again may all end up in Breeders' Cup races but given the competition they'll be facing I would not be shocked if the Classic winner was not in this race.
Beldame - Music Note is a serious racehorse, she did not beat much but she did it well and should have a major impact on the Ladies Classic.
Vosburgh - For a race with so much talent this is a pretty cruel ranking but Fabulous Strike is ducking out and Munnings probably will too. That leaves Kodiak Kowboy, he's the logical horse to run down Fatal Bullet and Zensational but can anyone run down those two?

C (Just one BC contender)
Flower Bowl - Pure Clan has a moderate shot at hitting the frame in the FM Turf, everyone else is not good enough.
Cotillion - Careless Jewel is a good horse but the Ladies Classic is ultra tough. She is not a major contender in my mind she's just one of the crowd that needs to be respected.

D (May produce a few longshot hopefuls)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - It's a harsh assessment for Gio Ponti but he's going to the Classic where he will not have a great chance. The rest of this field was junk and should not show up in California.
Indiana Derby - Misremembered looks like a decent sort, maybe for the Dirt Mile
Ohio Derby - Gone Astray put in his second big race performance in a row but will his connections send him?
Hawthorne Gold Cup - Awesome Gem is a lovable old guy but he's not a major threat to win a championship caliber race.

F (Will have no impact whatsoever on a Breeders' Cup race)
Kelso - Three horse field that was taken off the Turf. Not much to add here.
Durham Cup - Woodbine's main track stakes races rarely produce BC contenders. This one is no different.
Cliff Hanger - Someone might actually be tempted to try the Mile coming out of this race but it probably be a mistake.

Sanan A Sextant For The Cup

I have been quite distressed and critical of how the Breeders' Cup has changed direction, lost vision and now worked it's way into financial peril. But today for the first time in years I'm hopeful that things can get set back on a track that makes sense. Satish Sanan seems to be leading the revolution of common sense and I'm hopeful that the plan he has come up with sets the Breeders' Cup on a good path again. I've included an excerpt of a Bloodhorse article below that outlines my reasons for optimism.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51555/breeders-cup-recommendations-on-table

"Since Breeders’ Cup was formed 25 years ago, Sanan said the organization has slowly lost sight of its mission and vision. His committee will reveal what it believes that mission to be and how the organization should re-grasp it. Sanan also said the Breeders’ Cup brand had become “diluted” with all its different programs and sponsored races.

“People can’t differentiate between the different series,” he said. “They overlap. Our brand name needs to be clear. We have worked hard to come up with some recommendations that would allow us to have a very simple competition across the seasons that leads up to the championship days and has a single focus and mission rather than all these different things we’ve got going.”

Sanan’s committee has come up with a plan whereby three or four key tracks that meet a certain set of criteria would agree to partner with Breeders’ Cup and host the World Championships on a long-term basis. Sanan also said Breeders’ Cup needs to better define its customer base.

“If you talk to the big gamblers that bet a half-million dollars on Breeders’ Cup day, they will tell you that we put on the show for ourselves,” Sanan said. “We don’t pay attention to our fans or the average people who show up at Belmont or Santa Anita or Churchill every day."

The Breeders' Cup will hopefully get some new leadership today and that leadership will hopefully get this vessel back on course. The Breeders' Cup is the best thing the sport of horse racing has. It has to be well managed.

For years now Avioli and Land have been talking about new visions and directions but for once we have someone in power pointing out the fact that the true vision of the Breeders' Cup has been lost and that the desires of the fans are being ignored.

I'm sure things won't turn out exactly as I envision in my mind but I know my vision is not always the right one. I'm pleased that they're taking some action and if nothing else it seems as if the right intentions are returning to the Breeders' Cup. That's something to be pleased about.

On Your Mark.....

This week begins the road to the Breeders' Cup. Although it's maybe not as defined or celebrated as the road to the Triple Crown I think I probably enjoy it more. There is more diversity, more quality on display and of course it culminates in racing's best event, the Breeders' Cup.

Unfortunately it seems like a few people in prominent positions have dropped the ball. As of right now there is no online fantasy game with a Breeders' Cup focus for fans to look forward to. There is no official kick off promotion from the Breeders' Cup itself. In fact breederscup.com does not even have a schedule of the BC Challenge Races (Win And You're In) for 2009.

Going back to the fantasy games for just a moment, it's my feeling that racing needs to aggressively pursue the creation and promotion of online fantasy games. Fantasy sports is the future and it's how dedicated fans want to enhance their enjoyment of their favorite sport. I would even submit that the prizes don't need to be great. The Road to the Roses fantasy game has shown that you can attract decent interest in a fantasy game even if you ask players to pay for it. There was a free option of course but the pay to play pool swelled to over $20,000. Not having a prominent fantasy game that leads up to and highlights the biggest day on the calender is a terrible oversight. Fans like to play these games, racing needs to find a way to provide them.

I think Churchill Downs understands that this is a kick off to the second part of the year because they've slated 5 graded stakes for this weekend. The Stephen Foster and Fleur de Lis often have special significance within their divisions. Royal Ascot also kicks off next Tuesday. That five day race meeting often identifies horses of class that end up being Breeders' Cup contenders. If you want to get a head start on some good Europeans to follow make sure to keep an eye on Royal Ascot.

I certainly plan on giving the Breeders' Cup my full attention over the coming months. Top 10 lists, stats and the 20-20 profiles are the main ways I'll look to cover the build up to the Breeders' Cup.

I hope everyone enjoys this weekend's racing. It's just the beginning of great things to come.

When Push Comes To Shove

Money still talks and in the case of the Breeders' Cup versus the breeders over purse supplement money it looks as if sanity still has a chance of prevailing thanks to the financial clout of the breeders.

The Breeders' Cup has always been funded by the breeders but it's clear that the current executive believes that it's all about one day of championship racing. They simply have to realize that the only reason that championship day exists is because of the other purse supplements they provide year round.

Breeders must pay stallion and foal nominations to be Breeders' Cup eligible but make no mistake the Cup needs the breeders more than the breeders need the Cup. Very few horses ever strike it big and win a Breeders' Cup championship race anyway. The only way breeders feel like the program is of any value is if there are purse supplements.

Many people came down very hard on the Breeders' Cup executive when it was announced that they were discontinuing the purse supplement program in order to save $5 million. Fan pressure is one thing but we know, from the past changes the Breeders' Cup board has made, that they don't listen to the fans. Money is the only thing that motivates and it looks like many breeders have threatened to cease participation in the program. No breeders, no Breeders' Cup.

I'm still of the opinion that the current management still needs to tender their resignation because first of all they have not officially reinstated the pure supplement program but second of all it should never have come to this. The Breeders' Cup executive is completely detached from the desires of the fans and the breeders and they simply committed to doing their own thing. They don't get it and it should never take the threat of a boycott to see the right thing done. This executive should be doing the right thing all by themselves but evidently they're incapable which is why they should reinstate the purse supplement program then immediately end their association with the Breeders' Cup.

Racing doesn't need Greg Avioli, in fact it may not be able to survive with him. It's a good thing that he only has the power to ruin our championship day but the Breeders' Cup has become so important for the sport it's a shame to see the threat of ruin at all.

Have I Told You Lately....

I don't like to be characterized by repeated rants but I figure it's been a while since I've expressed some frustration at how my beloved Breeders' Cup is changing for the worse. I've always been a big fan of the Breeders' Cup and I've decided that I'm part of the problem because no matter how much I dislike the changes I'm still going to get excited about racing's championship day and I'm still going to support it.

But even my great affection for the Breeders Cup doesn't fully gloss over the logical inconsistencies we're being served. Focus for a moment simply on the line up of races.

The Dirt Mile will not be run on Dirt.

The Marathon is being run at the upper end of the classic distance band. Everywhere in the world, including America, Marathon's start at 1 3/4 miles.

There are three versions of the Sprint and all of them are different distances. The Filly and Mare Sprint is 7f, the Turf Sprint is 6.5f and the Sprint is 6f.

They have tried to create parallel races for males and females and the Classic is longer than the Ladies Distaff, the Turf is longer than the FM Turf but the Sprint is shorter than the FM Sprint. So please explain the logic to me.

The Breeders' Cup also tries to loosely mirror the main track races with Turf races. The Turf is longer than the Classic and the FM Turf is longer than the Ladies Classic. That makes sense, since in general Turf horses are known for having more stamina. But then why are the main track juvenile races longer than the juvenile turf races?

It's almost as if someone just randomly assigned the distances of the various races. I'd actually prefer to hear that they just didn't think about what they were doing rather than finding out that they gave it careful thought and this was the best they could come up with. I'd rather believe that the people controlling the greatest day in racing are just negligent instead of flat out stupid.

Win And You Might Be In

Okay enough with the nonsense. The Breeders' Cup needs to decide how serious they're going to be with this Win And You're In gimmick. It's gets lots of mention in the press but it's confusing for someone who may not know much about racing to hear that this race guarantees the winner a spot in the championship event. But then after the race the announcers mention that the winner actually isn't eligible to compete in the championship.

They need to scrap this system or make it what it ought to be. A free pass for ANY winner of the designated races. There have been 27 Win And You're In events and 7 of the winners aren't nominated. That's a very significant percentage and it is to the Breeders' Cups benefit to see these horses in the starting gate. For some connections, like Rahy's Attorney's owners, they can't just afford to pay the nomination and all the travel costs to get the horse there. They're simple people but their horse has earned a shot. And whether or not he could win the Breeders' Cup race there is little doubt that his presence would make it a better race.

I think fans are tired of seeing so many things in racing that just don't make sense. Why can't we try to make racing easy to follow? Why can't we try to make the buildup to the Breeders' Cup the most exciting part of the year?

Win And You're In was and is an advertising gimmick. It's starting to become a bit of a false advertising gimmick. Win And You're In races could become hotly contested, full field affairs if a free nomination was given. Not only would it make the Breeders' Cup races better but it would make the prep races better too.

Seating Row

Applications for tickets to the Breeders' Cup have been mailed out and are due by June 9th. Some people seem a bit disgruntled at the price increases. Here is the information on prices according to Breeders' Cup.com

"Prices for tickets for the 25th Breeders' Cup will range from $20 for one-day general grandstand admission ($15 for Santa Anita's Thoroughbreds Club members) to reserved grandstand seats ranging from $200 to $600, depending on location, for the two-day package."

I have not been the biggest supporter of the Breeders' Cup organization since Greg Avioli took over as CEO. In general I think they're conspiring to dilute a fantastic event solely in hopes of increasing handle. I don't like a lot of decisions they've made but an increase in ticket prices is something I do support.

I suppose I should add the proviso off the top that I likely won't go to the BC this year. Scheduling and the overall cost of the trip are the two barriers. But if it was local I definitely would attend. It's a premier event and I expect to pay premier prices.

I realize that not everyone is in a financial position to purchase tickets at these prices but people need to realize that their personal financial situation is not a key determinant in the market valuation. Simply put, it's a shame that the everyday fan might be priced out of the market but how many average joes attend the Super Bowl?

Let's look at approximate costs of other major sporting events in North America.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: $170-$715
Grey Cup: $175-$815
Major League Soccer Cup: $115-$2,500
Sugar Bowl: $195-$448
NCAA Semi-Final/Final Combo: $999-2575

For those who don't know the Grey Cup is the championship game for the Canadian Football League. Does the Breeders' Cup really look out of place now? Which one of these events is as long or would personally give you as much enjoyment? The Super Bowl is not even listed here because prices for those tickets are other worldly. They're on a totally different scale and the comparison is unrealistic. But for a closer comparison a seat on Preakness day will costs somewhere between $75-110. The BC is selling seats for two days for $200-$600. That means the cheapest seats for the BC are approximately $100 per day. That's just $25 more than the Preakness and the BC still offers $20 general admission. Pimlico charges $25 for general admission on it's signature day.

These are reasonable prices people. Just because you're not used to paying that much doesn't mean the price is high, it means you haven't really looked at it objectively. The Breeders' Cup might just be the best value major sporting event on the continent.

You could also look at this from another angle. Racing is looking for ways to generate revenue. Traditionally it has all come from handle, but Breeders' Cup day offers the chance to shift the percentages a little. The main income will still come from the handle but think of the type of people who buy the most expensive seats. Many of them are big shots from other walks of life who are not really into racing. Kind of similar to the Derby the Breeders' Cup wants to make the event seem like a red carpet type of thing. An annual place to be seen. The problem with these people is that for all their wealth they're extremely uncomfortable at the windows.

You all heard the interviews on Derby day. Celebrities all plan on betting but they're generally uncomfortable putting down more than $50. So in other words most of them pay more for their seat than they generate in handle. The only realistic way to shift those percentages is to make the seats cheaper because you're not going to make them into hardcore gamblers in a day or two.

Why would we not want to raise ticket prices, especially on the highest end seats? That's the best way to get money out of those patrons. Let's face it, the whales who generally push huge numbers through the windows don't do it from a luxury box. The way to get more money from them is to improve the product they can wager on. But for those who are not comfortable wagering large amounts this is the best way to maximize revenue. Anything they bet is gravy.

The Breeders' Cup despite all the changes is still the best day of racing. It's the best day to watch and bet on and in my opinion it's the best value for a major sporting event anywhere. The seat prices are competitively priced and if you really can't afford it you still have the general admission. I don't see the Super Bowl selling "standing room only" tickets for cut rate prices. No other sport has a cheap outlet like that. We're actually quite blessed.

Lamentations

"How deserted lies the city,
once so full of people!
How like a widow is she,
who once was great among the nations!

......How the gold has lost its luster,
the fine gold become dull!
The sacred gems are scattered
at the head of every street."

Lamentations 1:1, 4:1

Over dramatic? Perhaps, but one can't help but see the parallel's. The first paragraph or verse is rather more a prediction of what may become of the Breeders' Cup if they choose to stick with the new modus operandi. Adding new races and putting all the Filly and Mare races on a single, less important, day does little to enhance the Breeders' Cups image as racing's championship event. Instead it seemingly relegates the female races to a lesser status. Hopefully it does not come to this but it is quite possible that Breeders' Cup Friday will become the forgotten day. It in the eyes of the media it certainly will be. I hate to see that happen to the Distaff (yes, the DISTAFF) but it would serve them right if Friday was comparatively deserted.

The renaming of the Distaff is simply ridiculous. I could see a case being made to change the name but why on God's green earth did they choose the name "Ladies Classic". How about Filly and Mare Classic? You know, like an accurate description of what the race actually is or even just for the sake of continuity. Choosing "Ladies Classic" as the new moniker is just the newest in a long line of terrible decisions made by the Breeders' Cup. I don't like to call particular people out but the ship started taking on water when Avioli was named CEO and I don't think they've made a smart decision since.

The second passage quoted I think is a decent analogy of what the Breeders' Cup has already done. They've taken something that was valuable and precious and made it cheap and common. By creating a Breeders' Cup race for every single niche they've tarnished the glory of being a Breeders' Cup winner. It is no longer truly racings championship event. It is simply just another individualistic facet within racing that is seeking to earn as much money for itself as it can.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to make money but it has meant leaving the original vision of the Breeders' Cup far behind. That is worth lamenting.

The Death Of A Vision

As you've no doubt heard the Breeders' Cup has added three new races to it's menu. When the Breeders' Cup announced that it was adding new races last year there was a far greater reaction, both positive and negative. Many fans and writers were firmly behind the idea while some were firmly against it. I think the majority of us saw both positives and negatives in the addition of the races and were willing to let it play out before passing judgement.

I was personally intrigued by the notion of making the season less Breeders Cup focused. One possible benefit of adding new races that I saw was that it may change the way voters view Breeders' Cup winners with respect the Eclipse Awards. In recent times racing had become quite focused on the Breeders' Cup as the sole determining factor for championship's rendering the rest of the year meaningless. I do want to see the whole year given it's due and while I think the Breeders' Cup Classic is the single most important race of the year I don't think that it outweighs two G-1 races like the Whitney and the Santa Anita Handicap on it's own. The thought was that voters looking to crown the Champion Older horse may not be simply looking for the Classic winner, now the Dirt Mile winner might have some claims.

It was a nice theory but in practice this has had little effect. Part of that was due to the fact that the Graded Stakes Committee refused to give the new Breeders' Cup race G-1 status. Clearly creating a two tier Breeders' Cup. The established races were the "real" Breeders' Cup and the races held on Friday seemed more like under card supporting races. If anything the addition of the new Breeders' Cup races did more to harm racing throughout the year than help it. More horses were attracted to run in the Breeders' Cup and given the preferred preparation methods of trainers this meant that stakes races all over the country lost top class contenders because the goal was to "be fresh for the Breeders' Cup". It is still theoretically possible that the Dirt Mile for instance will take some of the focus off the Classic in terms of year end awards but the effect on the rest of the calender is still the same but to a greater degree. More horses will be campaigned with the Breeders' Cup specifically in mind and the result will be less competing prior to the Breeders' Cup.

As I sought to understand why the Breeders' Cup has decided to take this road I looked carefully at the statements being made by those currently in charge. Statements like "our goal is to reach $200 million in handle by 2010" and “These new races also continue our mission in providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest levels over the two-days of the Championships.”

I realize that we as fans, or at least I, see the Breeders' Cup in a totally different way than the board of directors and particularly CEO Greg Avioli. It seems as though the goal of the Breeders' Cup is not what it used to be. When John Gaines came up with the concept of the Breeders' Cup it was supposed to be an event where all potential champions met on the same track on the same day. It was to be the Super Bowl or World Series of horse racing. Implying that only the best of the best would be on showcase.

I feel that Greg Avioli has led the Breeders' Cup away from that vision. The goal now is to increase handle not the quality of the racing product and obviously the easiest way to increase handle is to have more races. Since when was a championship day about "providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest level"? Shouldn't a true championship be exclusive? Shouldn't the bulk of the efforts be geared towards attracting the actual best horses on the planet? The theory that more racing equals more handle is not even a sound one but it seems to be the course that the Breeders' Cup is pursuing. In their statement they mention wanting to make the Breeders' Cup a bigger entertainment product for the fans, the sponsors and television. Notably missing from the mission statement is a commitment to benefiting racing, the sport itself.

I suppose we knew this already, the different factions in racing are primarily concerned with enlarging their own piece of the pie and they care very little about what benefits the sport itself. It's just sad to see it once again put into practice.

As for the specific implementation of the races themselves it seems like the ideas were rushed and half baked. Three new races have been added and none of them have true divisional status in North America. There are no awards to give out for the best 2yo Turf Filly, or Dirt Stayer and although the Turf Sprint division does exist worldwide it does not really exist in North America, beyond the listed stakes race level.

The Dirt Marathon is not even a marathon and the distance of 12f is nearly an impossible one for many of the tracks in North America to host. I believe I'm correct in saying that there are no Graded Stakes aside from the Belmont Stakes that are run at 12f on the dirt. Apparently racing secretaries have pledged to start carding a few more distance races to serve as preps but let's be honest. The Dirt Marathon will be full of claimers and allowance horses. The favorites for the event will be the allowance level horses who happen to win the newly carded $50k overnight stakes races. Any horse who is good enough to run at a high level over 12f on the dirt will attempt to win the Classic which offers 10 times the money.

Europeans are not going to be attracted to this race because 12f is a middle distance in Europe and Turf is clearly the preferred surface. They've already got a 12f Turf race so the only way to attract overseas stayers like Yeats and Septimus is to make the race a true stayers affair, perhaps over the distance of 2 miles. Even then the fact that it's on dirt will not bring the Europeans over in numbers.

I'm all for encouraging long distance racing in North America, but this is putting the cart before the horse. Use the money to create a division first. Then when you do have the basis to create a championship race don't make it's value a measly $500k. The message is clear, there isn't any value in sticking around for Dirt Marathon. It's far better to be a moderately useful 2yo on the grass. You're playing for double the money and it's not nearly as difficult to get there.

It makes sense once you understand the context of the Breeders' Cup mission of getting more handle and providing an opportunity for everyone to run. But for those of us stuck in the past still thinking that the Breeders' Cup is a championship event we have to ask. Which "highest level" horses were not at the Breeders' Cup last year that you think you can attract with the new races this year?

The answer is that there were virtually no healthy G-1 level horses who skipped the BC because they could not find a suitable race. There simply aren't more than 100 G-1 level horses in America. In fact there are probably only around 50 or 60 and the Breeder's Cup already attracts more than 100 horses with its premier eight races. The new races boast $5.5 million dollars in purses. Instead of throwing that money at turf maiden race winners or allowance class geldings how about using that money to subsidize championship level horses who happen not to be nominated to the Breeders Cup? How about using the money to entice foreign participation like Dubai, Japan and Hong Kong do?

You want to increase handle? Then realize that most casual bettors lose money, so by day two of the Breeders Cup their wallets will be lighter and they won't be able to bet as heavily on the main races. How about raising handle by attracting bigger bettors? Since most of the huge bettors on earth are based in Europe and Asia, use your money to attract hometown horses that these bettors will want to back. The Japanese in particular travel in droves to the Arc d'Triomphe when they have a horse with a shot and they bet heavily because betting heavily is a part of their current culture. The handle in Asia is immense, find a way to get those people attending the Breeders' Cup.

These suggestions are far from perfect but they are at least aimed increasing the quality of the existing races instead of diluting the overall quality of the event by attracting horses of ever decreasing quality. They are aimed at preserving the original vision and intent of the Breeders' Cup. Although the Breeders' Cup in its original form was far from flawless, in it's inception it was created with the good of the sport at heart. The intent and vision that Mr. Gaines had for this event is something that should be respected and upheld. Mr. Avioli instead has decided to put that vision to rest. The sport is the poorer for it.

Why Don't They Get It?

So the American Graded Stakes Committee blew it again, surprise surprise. That's not really news, it's a recurring theme. There are 718 unrestricted stakes races run in North America and 67% (481) of them ended up being graded. 10 races were upgraded and 6 races were downgraded. We have three new G-1 races, the Maker's Mark Mile, Just A Game and the First Lady. All of them 8f races on the grass.

Every year we get more and more stakes races when what the game actually needs is movement in the opposite direction.

I think they need to downgrade a ton of races right away. Starting with the G-1 KY Derby preps. None of those races should be G-1's. The Derby is a G-1 and those are prep races. How the Graded Stakes committee can justify giving them equal status is beyond me.

One of the reasons why they have is because they always look back at the stakes at the end of the year and see which horses ran in what. Naturally a Derby winner comes out of one of those preps every year so in retrospect they look like G-1 quality. But for many horses its the first time they've been in G-1 company. They weren't G-1 horses when they ran in the race. A race should not be upgraded because its participants went on to fame. It should be upgraded because its participants are increasingly qualified before they enter the said race.

For instance if the top handicap horse in America enters the Brooklyn 5 years in a row then maybe it deserves to be upgraded.

Most 3yo stakes races conducted early in the year and virtually all 2yo stakes races are graded too highly. Most 2yo G-1 stakes races are half full of nothing more than maiden winners. Outside the Breeders Cup how many 2yo races really get G-1 quality fields? Maybe the Breeders Futurity or the Champagne but certainly not all the 2yo G-1's end up with G-1 fields.

The overabundance of graded stakes is to blame for small fields in prestigious races because horses can ship around the country and pick their spots. The AGSC also bears some of the responsibility for early retirements. If there were only 5 G-1 races for 3yo's all year long you might have to keep your horse around longer in order to win one of them. We all know that breeding value hinges on resumes of Graded Stakes so one way to combat retiring is to make it hard to earn Graded Stakes wins.

They get an annual chance to right the wrongs and once again they blew it.
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On an unrelated note Kennedy's Corridor will be mirrored on the Thoroughbred Champions homepage starting tomorrow. There will still be benefits to visiting this site like the TCR rankings and other gems I put on the sidebar but most of the posts will be there as well.

I've been a member of TBC for nearly 7 years and have served as a moderator for much of that time. In addition to my blog there should be several others so be sure to check that out.

Breeders Cup Thoughts

It seemed as though everything stopped as I waited for the Breeders Cup pre-Entries to be released. They finally came and I quickly purchased my online DRF BC Advance and greedily poured over the information for a few hours.

One would think that after having spent some intimate time with the Past Performances that I'd be brimming with insight and observations, but after finishing my initial scan I actually found myself with no ideas to write about. Perhaps some will come as I lay out the schedule for the blog until the Breeders Cup.

Tomorrow I'll highlight some fun and profitable ways to play the Breeders Cup without the necessity of any real handicapping knowledge.

Friday we'll look for some plays at Woodbine as the International and a host of other top class stakes races are being carded.

Monday will be the weekend wrap up as always and starting Tuesday I'll be posting my analysis of each BC race. Hopefully I'll finish that by Friday and have time to update the 20-20 scores for 2007.

As for observations about the Breeders Cup itself, I would say that the Filly & Mare Turf and the Distaff are two of most confusing races of the day. There are a ton of horses in both that could be winners.

Despite the lack of entrants in the Classic it is the toughest field since 1998.

Cross entries make things more confusing to figure out but I think every race aside from the Turf, Dirt Mile and Classic should be full. Those races will likely have less 10 runners or less.

Here is my opinion of the races that each of the important cross entries will end up in.

Honey Ryder - FM Turf
Nashoba's Key - FM Turf
Hystericalady - Distaff
La Traviata - Sprint
Panty Raid - Distaff

Win And You're In

The Breeders Cup is launching their new qualifying initiative stateside this weekend. In my personal opinion this is a non event. It's not a great idea to begin with and the BC powers that be have taken a poorly conceived idea and made it even worse with a nonsensical practical application.

Why did we need this in the first place. What good horses are left out of the BC each year because they can't get in? The only other justification for this is to try to get main contenders all prepping in the same races. But lets be realistic, a horse who wins a G-1 that isnt on this list will still be in the BC if they want to be so they havent increased the incentive to compete in those specific preps. In all likelihood Street Sense will not compete in ANY of the BC Challenge races. Will that make a difference? Nope, none at all.

I do not understand the process by which they selected the races 25 for inclusion. You would think they'd have G-1's and other prestigious races, maybe even some overseas races to encourage European participation. The BC brass obviously agreed that overseas races are a good idea so they chose one. That's right just one, and does anyone care to guess which race they chose? You might have thought the Arc de Triomphe, The King George, The Irish Champion or even the Juddmonte International but none of those were included. Instead they chose the Champions Mile which is run at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) at the end of APRIL. Take a guess at how many Champions Mile starters have ever made it to the Breeders Cup?

Furthermore the races they selected stateside make no sense either. There is not one race for the Juvenile Fillies, Sprint Females or the Juvenile Turf division. The horse who wins the Goodwood gets an automatic birth but a horse could sweep the Travers and Woodward and get nothing. And someone please tell me why the G-3 Phoenix sprint on polytrack is important enough to get a horse into the BC sprint?

I think the television personalities will give this challenge some lip service but in general it will go unnoticed and most likely it will not have any impact at all on the horses who enter the BC because most any horse who wins one of those races would never have been denied entry from the old system and horses who ignore these races this year will still get in if their good enough by virtue of the points standings or the selection committee.

This system caters to the Seek Gold's and Wagon Limit's of the world and we don't need a system that does that. It's a bad idea to try and restrict race entry this way and nonsensical incompetence made the idea worse in reality than it is in concept.

BC changes and purses

Comments are still a pretty rare thing in these parts so I do my best to respond to them when they come.

"........i was wondering what effect the new bc format would have on purses/ i wonder if those purses would be diluted keeping quality horses oversees at home/ i was surprised to find out that as far as rich purses goes, even without the middle eastern races, the u.s. is far down the list of offering the richest purses/ on the one hand i would like to see more foreign based horses in the bc races/ on the otherhand since i don't handicap them very well, i probably do better when they stay home

thanks,
gerry/illinois"

I think the changes made to the BC will serve to increase purses. The BC races will cause racetracks to shuffle thier current stakes schedule to include preps. In cases like the BC Juvenile Turf there are literally no preps stateside, so racetracks would logically look at adding stakes races that could serve as preps. Most likely some new races will be created and in that way purse money will increase. I dont know if we will see any specific increases.

I do believe though that a million dollar purse right now is as big a draw as you need to bring Europeans over. There aren't very many European races that directly conflict with the Breeders Cup. The Criterium International is usually run at the same time as the BC in France, but its not a terribly prestigeous G-1 race and its worth just about the equvalent of $250,000 USD. The Dewhurst is really the last major 2yo race in the European calender and it is typically run two weeks prior to the BC. It is also worth approximately $500,000 USD. I think the BC commitee knows full well that they'll be able to draw a good crowd of Europeans with a million dollar purse.

New BC Format, Rethought

A few days ago just after the news of the Breeders Cup expansion broke my first reaction was positive. I liked that they were open to change and trying new things. However upon further reflection I'm no so sure about this move, I would say I'm officially undecided. Here are some of the impacts it could have both positive and negative.

One negative that is clear right off the bat if that these new races will dilute the quality of the Breeders Cup races. Look around, which horses last year would have filled the Filly and Mare Sprint? Behaving Badly, Malibu Mint and maybe Dubai Escapade. Beyond that there weren’t really any G-1 quality sprinting mares that were healthy at the time. So the Breeders Cup, the championship day (weekend) of racing will now feature a lot more horses who have no business competing for a championship.

Increased segregation is another negative. Call me old fashioned but I love when horses try new things, step out of their division etc.... These races pander to the niches of specific horses and it means that we will now fail to see any filly sprinters in the BC Sprint. Fillies by the way have had much success in the BC Sprint historically. 36 Fillies have run in the 23 editions of the BC Sprint. Their cumulative record is 3-7-0, a flat win bet on every filly in the sprint would have yielded a 31% ROI. They held their own and won as many races as they were statistically probable to do. In summation, I don’t see why the fillies needed their own sprint. The dirt mile will also take horses away from the sprint.

There are also no logical reasons behind having these particular races. Historically the Breeders Cup was lined up with the different recognized divisions and also then lined up with the year end awards. There is no award directly connected to any of these races. In some cases there is no division to speak of, or even logical prep races in place. What race would a dirt miler prep in? The Cigar Mile is after the Breeders Cup and the Met Mile is the only other significant Mile race on the calendar. The Juvenile Turf is mostly about attracting Europeans, but the bulk of the field is still going to be made up of Americans. There is only one graded stake that is run on the turf prior to the Breeders Cup and that is the Summer stakes at Woodbine.

From a point standings perspective it throws a lot of things up in the air. For instance the way the graded stakes schedule is it will make it much easier for a female sprinter to earn the most points. On one hand its nice because now it is possible for a horse like Xtra Heat to dominate as an older mare and get some recognition in the Older Mare category, which is dominated by routers. However at the same time it means a lot of fillies who are inferior to the males will be able to earn more points without stepping out of their division.

Now for some positives. I think the Juvenile Turf specifically will encourage some positive changes. First of all more Europeans are going to come, they will smell the easy money and come in droves. We may even see the cream of the Euro juveniles. Another thing this will do is cause racetracks to start carding more turf races for youngsters. There is now a reason to have more than Turf maiden races or state bred $50k stakes races. With more money and focus shifting to Turf racing for juveniles we will hopefully see more juveniles running on the surface and in my opinion Turf is a better, kinder surface for juveniles. Another possible benefit of this is that we start breeding for Turf a little more and if certain American juvenile look very impressive in the BC they might even be tempted to contest the European Classics. I do like anything that encourages international competition.

I think having more Breeders Cup races that do not specifically line up by division will mean a slight shift away from a Breeders Cup centered season as far as year end awards are concerned. It will force people to stop simply taking the BC winner and touting them for the Eclipse award. For instance there may now be two Juvenile colts who have won BC races. One hit wonders like Action This Day wont get as much support if there is a good looking Turf alternative. The BC Sprint winner is no longer the shoe in for the Eclipse, the Filly and Mare Sprint winner will get some consideration. Same with the BC Classic and the BC Dirt Mile. They are essentially competing races, and like the situation we have now with the BC Turf and the BC Mile, a win in one of them doesn’t necessarily entitle you to the year end award. So it brings more balance from that perspective.

Overall I'd say I'm still undecided. I can see some positives and negatives. I think that I'm not opposed to the Breeders Cup expanding, but I think they picked the wrong races to expand with. The fastest growing division in North America is the Turf Sprint division. There would be lots of international interest as well. I think that should have been added. I like The Juvenile Turf race, but I'm not a big fan of either of the dirt races they added.

Breeders Cup.....Championships?

What a weekend. There were upsets galore and I cant help but feel that the Breeders Cup didnt live up to its billing as the World Thoroughbred Championships. It may not even have been the American Championships. Lets look at the 8 winners.

Invasor will likely be the Horse of the Year and champion older horse. But he shouldnt be a cinch. Lava Man should get his fair share of consideration for the award as he is still the top ranked horse according to the TCR. I think the voters will stiff Lava Man badly. Bernardini should still get the 3yo championship ahead of Barbaro.

Red Rocks as top turf horse? I hope I never live to see the day. His campaign has only made him the 7th ranked turf horse in the TCR. And since he has only had 1 start in America he shouldnt even be eligable.

How do you give the older mare award to Round Pond? The TCR has her climbing up to fourth spot behind Fleet Indian, Healthy Addiction and Behaving Badly. I dont really think she deserves much better than second at this stage. Fleet Indian has had a much better year.

Miesque's Approval is a solid lovable horse who had a career year and is actually the 4th ranked turf horse and the 8th ranked horse overall. But there is no way he is recognized as a champion. In fact the horse he beat, Aragorn, is the leader of the Turf standings. It will be interesting to see how the voters sway. Aragorn, The Tin Man and English Channel all have a realistic shot. Perhaps that will entice them to become active at the Hollywood meet to put it beyond doubt. The Turf horses this year have been exceptionally strong which is why 7 of the top 10 TCR ranked horses are Turf horses.

The best post BC quote was from Doug O'Niell when he said "He came out of the race in great shape and our goal now is to try to bring home the Eclipse Award," Most trainers would come out and say: "He's being freshened for next year, I think we deserve the Eclipse". O'Niell surely hasnt seen the TCR rankings which see his horse in 2nd but he at least recognizes that a BC win doesnt wrap up anything. This division is as wide open as the Turf division and the De Francis Dash should be the superb.

Ouija Board will likely get the Eclipse and she is the #1 ranked horse in the filly turf division in the TCR. But without 3 starts stateside she cant be the TCR champion. That in my opinion leaves it to Wait A While who has been the best of the rest. In fact I'd take Wait A While for top 3yo filly as well. Pine Island's demise was the most unfortunate occurance of the day and she'll get her fair share of sentiment. However thier records stacked side by side show that Wait A While is the most worthy champion.

Street Sense is being put away for the year and Eclipse voters will lean on him heavily but his record before the BC really wasnt very good and he is still ranked #2 in the TCR standings. I personally dont believe that he is worthy of the Juvenile award off just that performance. There is a decent chance that Great Hunter may come back in the Hollywood Futurity and if he were to win there I would give him my backing. At this stage its wide open.

Dreaming of Anna was perhaps the only true undisputed champion to win on BC day. She was excellent and fully deserves both the championship and her top ranking in the division. I hope there is much more to come from this talented little filly.

Smarter than I thought

Yesterday I mused and complained about the fact that pre-entries for the Breeders Cup are taken on Monday and not released until Wednesday.

I have to say I have re-though my position and have unfairly maligned the powers that be.

The reason for the delay is simple. The BC field selection commitee needs the time to grade every field in order so that the list of also-eligables can be produced at the same time the pre-entries are listed.

BC Goodies

Here are a few helpful links for handicapping or just following the Breeders Cup

NTRA feature video - These are mostly clips of stretch runs followed by a little commentary, however they also have segments of the HRTV Pursuit of the Cup under the "Misc" tab and of ESPN broadcasts. The "Races" gives you access to most of the major graded stakes over the past few months. This site basically renders the Racereplays version useless, and its a lot easier because you dont have to sign up.

NTRA Time Capsule - Stretch replays and full charts of every Breeders Cup race.

BRISnet BC Advance PP's - The main file "Ultimate PP's w/ Comments" is rather large and it can freeze slower computers. But this is a great resource for getting an early line on the form.

DRF Prep Results - This gives you charts and winning Beyer Figures for all this years major preps.

DRF BC Past Winners - Click on the green links at the top of each chart. You'll get Lifetime PP's for the last 10 BC winners.

The Downey Profile - An excellent resource for taking an off the beaten path approach to the BC. Good contender profiles for each race.

CalRacing - This requires free membership but its worth it. Free replays of all Californian racing going back almost 2 years. It also offers replays from tracks like Woodbine, Keeneland and all the NYRA tracks.

And of course dont forget to check out the Throughbred Champions racing forum. The lastest BC news and the possible fields are updated constantly. It really is the fastest place to get news.

I guess it makes sense to someone

Okay I'm sitting here on Tuesday morning wondering why I'm not pouring over the official Breeders Cup pre-entries. The simple answer is because they havent been released yet but one has to wonder why. Pre-Entries were due Monday at 12 noon EST. Why then to BC officials feel that its necessary to hold them from the public until Wednesday? Are they simply unable to organize the list of horses that fast? Or are they trying to build suspense by witholding them until a grand unveiling can be staged?

I really hope it isnt the latter because there are so many leaks almost everyone knows who is pre-entered anyway. There will most likely be one or two surprises but the main body of the field is common knowledge and trainers are even open about revealing who they entered. Any suspense or illusion of mystery is basically gone. Why not just pass on the information?