Have They Improved?

The Derby stats we're going to look at this week have to do with trying to gauge how much horses have improved from their 2yo season to their pre-Derby 3yo season and the importance of improving.

Every single year we get top 2yo's who simply don't turn into top 3yo's. The reason for that is because they often mature faster than their peers, which makes them effective 2yo's. However their development then plateau's and by the time the Derby rolls around they are effectively still the same horse they were last year while the rest of the crowd has surpassed them in terms of development.

The pitfall with this kind of horse is that they have big reputations usually and you're keen recognize their class and you don't want to be too quick to drop them because you keep recalled what they were able to do last year.

Obviously the horses who have the toughest time improving are those who were accomplished 2yo's. In this years crop it means Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Nobiz Nike Shobiz and even a horse like Any Given Saturday. To truly be considered top Derby contenders that have to improve on their 2yo form and as of now none of them have.

There are a few ways I like to look 3yo's to discern whether or not they are improving. one of them is to look at the Beyer Speed figures. They aren't always the most accurate judge but they do give you a good idea about the general level of a horses performance.

Just to give you some numbers, 14-0-1-0 is the cumulative Derby record of those starters who achieved their highest career Beyer Figure as a 2yo. Proud Citizen was the lone horse who performed well despite this fact. But it mostly tosses those type of fringe longshots like Private Vow, Scrimshaw, Birdstone, Anees and Captain Steve. None of these horses were going to be the Derby favorites but a few of them would have been on tickets of those trying to nail the exotics.

Another filter that produces some interesting results is looking at horses who made 75% or more of their career earnings as 2yo's. Again not a hard and fast indicator but generally money follows success and since Derby qualification is earned through graded stakes monies its useful to look at the horses who earned by virtue of what they did as a 2yo. Horses who earned less than 25% of their career total on the Derby trail have a record of 20-0-0-0. Not a single one of them has hit the Derby frame. Most of these horses are the big reputation types who won nice races as 2yo's then had spotty preparation as 3yo's but still get respect by virtue of their reputation. The Favorite Trick's, Answer Lively's and AP Valentine's are the type that get eliminated.

These horses are often given light preparation because their connections feel like they have a good 2yo foundation. The first prep is usually not indicative of anything unless its a lights out dominant performance. Then if the horse runs a dull third in their last prep connections still push on to the Derby and bettors are left to decide whether they are actually better as 3yo's or not. Most of the time they aren't, so be wary.