I Lied

"I'm guessing that running in large fields isn't one of your factors since Bro Derek got a 20, but I think now more than ever, having experience running in large fields is vital. If a horse hasn't been bumbed and steadied in a prep, then they aren't prepared for the 20 horse pile-up that is the Kentucky Derby. "
Joseph

I must confess to misleading you guys about two particulars. The first is that I'll only be giving out Derby stats on Wednesday's. Because today is Thursday and the topic is Derby stats. The second is that the link to the spreadsheet was in fact the current version of my TC profile. I apologize, as I accidentally uploaded the old version of the profile that did not include the update of one of the factors and that is the factor that Joseph kindly brought to my attention.

First of all you can see the updated version of the profile here.

Triple Crown 20-20

The change that was made had to do with the entrants experience with respect to the size of field they had faced. Running in large fields is a key factor as it can go a long way to preparing them for the circumstances they will face on Derby day. There are always exceptions to the rule however. Proud Citizen never faced a field greater than 9 horses but as it turned out the way the 2002 Derby was run he didn't need any large field experience. He simply sat off the flank of the leader and stayed there the whole way.

But the key factor that I use to determine if they have sufficient experience is that they
must have faced field size of 10 or more as a 3yo or if not they had to have faced a field size of 10 or more at least twice as a 2yo. The idea is isolate the horses who do not have much experience with large fields but at the same time you don't want to throw out horses who simply had the misfortune of having little competition. For instance Real Quiet never faced a field of 10 or more as a 3yo. He ran in California and fields are generally smaller. However he did run in a field size of 10 or more 6 times as a 2yo. Its pretty safe to assume that although Real Quiet had not seen a large field recently, he did have sufficient experience to handle it.

Here are some raw numbers about this factor.

Must have faced field size of 10 or more as a 3yo or at least twice as a 2yo: The last 41 Derby winners have qualified with this factor
Did not face a field size of 10 or more: 10-0-1-1
Did not face a field size of 10 or more as a 3yo: 47-1-4-2
Did not face a field size of 10 or more as a 3yo and faced large field size only once or less total: 27-0-2-2

The first and last stats listed here are the key ones for this factor. Not only have all the Derby winners in the last generation qualified for this factor, but it has tossed out 27 entrants who did not qualify. Some of them like Empire Maker, Congaree and Indian Charlie were good enough to run in the money but it has helped expose horse like Brother Derek, Came Home, War Chant, Millennium Wind and Halory Hunter who simply didn't have very much experience in large fields and were thus statistically disadvantaged.

So when you're looking for a Derby horse make sure that he's had some experience with large fields, if not you'd better hope they get a perfect Derby trip. That is not something my money would be on.