Overview
This is the first really big weekend of the year. We have two reigning champions in action as well as 4 horses from my Derby top 10. An interesting stat you may want to note about Breeders Cup winners in their first start back is that they d0n't actually win at a higher percentage than you would expect from a favorite. Their cumulative record since 1995 is 64-21-19-10. Although I have to say the older horses have been stronger. I'm not really saying you ought to go against Invasor or Miesque's Approval, just that you don't get overawed with the fact that they are BC winners and champions. Although I don't have too many thoughts about the Swale I am interested to see how Adore the Gold does. He is one of those knocking on the door.
Deputy Minister H
I suppose it doesn't take much depth of insight to pick 3 horses from a field of 5. But I find this race very interesting. Kelly's Landing and Sir Greeley should vie for favoritism. Kelly's Landing won a nice race over this strip last out but I am very wary of this horse. He cant seem to put two good races together. Sir Greeley is horse I respect greatly. I think he's a solid performer with lots of talent and he's been training like a bear. But as the old adage goes, pace makes the race and I am going to go for the lone speed in this race. Or at least the truest speed, and that is Keyed Entry. I have no idea why this horse is the 4th choice on the morning line. Sure his last few races last year were disastrous. But if there is one thing Pletchers team does well its bring back horses sharp from long layoffs. We also have to remember that in addition to Keyed Entry being the lone speed he is also undefeated at distances under a mile and undefeated at Gulfstream. Take any price they'll give you.
1)Keyed Entry
Holy Bull
I wish there was an interesting alternative to the top pair but I just don't see it. Luckily the clash between Nobiz Like Showbiz and Scat Daddy will be interesting enough on its own. I think bettors will prefer Nobiz and fans will be pretty much split down the middle. Nobiz has looked majestic in two of his three outings, Scat Daddy on the other hand is almost a bit blue collar, at least as much as a Tabor/Pletcher $250k colt can be. He's a tough and classy little guy and personally I wish him all the best. I don't know if he will handle the Derby distance but he's got class by the bucket load. I don't think either horses reputation would be harmed by a loss to the other. Remember for a horse to reach the pinnacle in May he doesn't really need to be winning races in early Feb. Some of the best value plays have come from horses like Real Quiet and Funny Cide who were running great races while loosing to bigger name horses. So keep your eye out for the horses who fill the minor placings. Drums of Thunder is mildly interesting but I think the winner will be Nobiz Like Showbiz this time.
1)Nobiz Like Showbiz
2)Scat Daddy
3)Drums Of Thunder
Suwannee River H
This race is likely the least anticipated match up of the entire day. With all respect to J'ray and Naissance Royale, almost no one, who isn't a an ardent fan, knows who they are. But that doesn't mean the race is devoid of opportunity. I am a big believer in horse for the course plays. I think that most horses have a marked preference for either a certain pace, track, or distance and that their chances of success greatly improve when they get those conditions. My longshot play in here is La Dolce Vita. On paper her class level seems to be lagging, her speed figures are in the same neighborhood but competition faced is a better judge than speed figures on the grass. But she has done well against Charmsil who I'm sure would be well backed in this race. What I find most interesting about her is that she is 16-4-2-1 lifetime but she is 5-4-0-1 on the Gulfstream turf. That means she is 11-0-2-0 in all other races. You think she might have a preference for this course? Her only loss over this strip came last out to Charmsil but she got steadied right at the head of the stretch and lost all momentum. If not for that she might still be perfect on this sod. She likes to come from well back so pace might be an issue but I think you'll hardly find a stronger angle for a better price.
1)La Dolce Vita
2)J'Ray
3)Naissance Royale
Donn H
I wanted to find something to beat Invasor in this spot but I think its just futile reaching. He is the best horse and barring a tragedy he should win this race. Magna Graduate is really the only horse who can run with him on his best day, but Magna likes to run close to or set a soft pace. I don't think he is going to be able to do that here, not with Barcola in the race. Possibly if that one scratches we might see an upset but most likely Invasor will just outclass the rest. Chatain almost has the look of Bernardini in the Preakness. Lots of talent, seems to be improving rapidly but unproven and facing a very classy favorite. I think Chatain can run well but I wont make him my first choice. If you want more of a price to fill the minor placings look at AP Arrow. He's a decent horse who should be running on strongly in the last furlong.
1)Invasor
2)Chatian
3)AP Arrow
Strub
I think this is perhaps the most wide open major race of the weekend. Its a familiar and well matched group returning to do battle once again. We discussed Brother Derek quite a bit after his last race and despite all the negative signs I saw from him I still find myself wondering if he can win this if he gets in front. Objective is the only horse with real speed, and Brother Derek did hang pretty tough in his last. But I just can't bring myself to do it, Brother Derek no matter how appealing he looks is a pretty bad gamble right now. I think Midnight Lute is the horse to beat despite his loss last out. Espinoza exposed him way too early last time because he was riding to beat Brother Derek. I don't think you'll see the same type of move on the turn this time. He'll be waiting as long as possible so he can hold off Awesome Gem. The Dollase horse should run well again, I mean he's never run poorly on the dirt so its a pretty good assumption but I don't think he'll get up this time. Not with Midnight Lute being ridden more intelligently.
1)Midnight Lute
2)Awesome Gem
3)Brother Derek
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The race I'm most interested in this weekend is the Sham. This race will be a great chance to watch several potential derby starters, including Ravel, Pirates Deputy, and Liquidity. Liquidity looks to get the heavy betting off of a nice run in the Holywood Futurity, but I don't see him running well here. His worst races have come on dirt. If Ravel is as good as he appears, this race sets up well for him (this is a big if since he has yet to run on dirt). Ravel also gets a nod because Garrett Gomez picked him over Pirates Deputy. I have a hard time going against Pirates Deputy here with the extra distance and the nice works he's put in, but the Gomez move makes me think I need to. The most interesting horse in this field will be Kolo, a nice looking son of Dynaformer who will be making his first start on the dirt. He looks like he can run all day and won his last out, the Eddie Logan Stakes, off of just 2 weeks rest.
1)Ravel
2)Pirates Deputy
3)Kolo
i havn't had the time to look at this upcoming weekend as much as i would like but i did want to weigh in a bit on KC's picks if that's ok. // Strub i agree totally on this other than brother derek may not finish in the money// this is a classic case of the eddie murphy's 'trading places' which happens many times in racing // midnight lute looks ready to win// if the tote board has him 7/5 or less i will take him on top/ if he is higher than 8/5, i'll take either awesome gem or arson squad on top/ i believe awesome again is giving up 6 lbs/ that's too much weight to give up // deputy minister - very intriguing pick, keyed entry/ after KC's $55.00 horse last week, i wouldn't be surprised// on paper sir greely looks very good and i liked high finance just as much// holy bull- KC has this one nailed / nobiz and scat daddy/scat daddy is used to carrying more weight than nobiz and i can't figure out how why the weight assignments were given out the way they were//donn- you can't argue with the picks/ magna graduate may have enough class advantage the be somewhere in the mix and could hit the board /as KC noted miesque's approval, all the way in the canadian turf///suwannee river-great picks / this race could produce a surprise or two// i like prado's horse on top because he figues close and has ridden this mare 4 times winning twice with her/ i also like bejarano's horse a lot// i liked KC's pick of la dolce vita/ i think guidry is highly underrated as a turf jockey// he does extremely well in getting all the talent the horse possesses on the turf/ he doesn't always have the cream of the crop/ / Swale-the race looks fairly wide open /adore the gold seems to have a bit of a class advantage over cowtown cat and prado's horse//i will be doing something with forefaters// sham- i see Joseph's horse is running in the sham and he looks as capaple as the winner of the 10th race last week at gulfstream which surprised a lot of handicappers// i prefer liquidity on top because of his beyer's, he has won on the dirt at santa anita and he and his breeding shows he can get the distance// another good weekend of racing ahead// it will be fun//chicago (and for the last time-go bears-)- good luck to all- gerry
I dont have any strong feelings about the Sham which is why I didnt write about it. But I agree with your analysis and those would be my 3 choices as well. I just dont feel strongly enough about them.
Nice analysis, best of luck this weekend.
"i can't figure out how why the weight assignments were given out the way they were"
This is from the race conditions concerning how the weight was assigned.
"Weight: 122 lbs. Non-winners of $50,000 twice at a mile or over, allowed, 2 lbs.;
$50,000 at any distance or $35,000 at a mile or over, 4 lbs.; $30,000 at any distance or $25,000 at a mile or over, 6 lbs."
Why did they choose to do it like that? Its just a case of the secretary writing what he thinks will attract the most horses.
I have to agree with Kennedy on not having a strong feeling for the Sham. I guess that's why I'm so interested in the outcome. I'll be rooting for Pirates Deputy. I'm hoping he has matured and will get out of the gates faster than a snail (maybe pinch Ravel into the rail while he's at it) and pull away down the stretch. Should be fun.
Well, Nobiz definately looked the best of the 3 year olds this weekend. Ravel looked nice also, and I liked that he won a stretch duel, but I think he definately needs some seasoning before he gets tangled with the big boys. Speaking of big boys, the Risen Star is starting to look like a monster race! Circular Quay, Zanjero, and Notional are already on board - and now it looks like Lawrence the Roman (one of my top 5 derby horses) may throw his hat in the ring as well. His owner says he wants to get some graded earnings - but I'd advise him to take a real close look at the field before counting his cash.
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