Much talk is being devoted to the possible prep schedule of top Kentucky Derby contender Ravel. Some rumours have been floating around that he will go straight to the Santa Anita Derby in April rather than taking the traditional route and racing in March. Either the Bob Lewis or the San Felipe would be logical targets if he were to run in March but its possible that he may sit them out.
The questions fans and horse players have been debating is what does that do to his Derby chances. From a statistical perspective having just 2 preps wont really hurt him as long as he does well in the SA Derby. The real question mark it would produce is that old question of career starts. He would only have 4 of them and no Derby winner since Exterminator in 1914 won the Derby with fewer than 5 pre-Derby career starts.
In truth that supposedly daunting statistic is greatly bolstered by the fact that most Derby contenders for the last 90 years have had more than 5 career starts before the Derby. The trend of racing horses lightly is something that is really picking up these days. Here are the average number of starts for the Derby competitors in the last 11 runnings. The average used to be more in the 8 or 9 starts range now its more like 6 or 7.
1996 - 9.52
1997 - 8.46
1998 - 8.40
1999 - 7.26
2000 - 6.78
2001 - 6.76
2002 - 7.55
2003 - 7.13
2004 - 6.70
2005 - 7.00
2006 - 7.20
Obviously with horses making fewer starts these days its natural to assume that eventually someone will be able to win the Derby again with just 4 career starts. But to date the record of horses with fewer than 5 career starts prior to the Derby is 18-0-0-2. The only two horses who were able to hit the frame were Indian Charlie and Congaree. Although the trend leans more towards horses with fewer career starts I am still led to be cautious of inexperienced horses in the Derby. It's become a bit of a roller Derby over the last decade and if your horse is inexperienced you better hope he so talented it wont matter or that he finds a way to get a perfect trip, because the odds are he will find the Derby a bridge too far at that stage of his career.
Among the inexperienced losers were Congaree, Medaglia D'Oro, War Chant, Flower Alley and Showing Up. Many of the inexperienced horses went on to become top notch competitors after the Derby so the feeling is that many of them were good enough to win, they just weren't ready on the day. Also some of them were very talented but hadn't run enough for their connections to accurately assess what they are really best at. But virtually every talented 3yo gets thrown in the Derby.
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2 comments:
I'm glad you posted on this subject because this trend is becoming ridiculous. I don't mind trainers bringing a horse along slowly, but to me that has always meant increasing the difficulty of their races slowly - Not avoiding races alltogether. (Sorry in advance for the upcoming rant) It isn't as if Ravel isn't getting on the track and putting in works - so what sense does it make to not give him some MUCH needed race experience. If Pletcher is afraid that Ravel's confidence might suffer in a loss to Great Hunter or Exhale, then run him in an allowance or at some small time stakes! Why is the Robert B. Lewis the only option? I think Ravel may be the most talented horse among the three year olds, and I am absolutely dumbstruck as to how it makes sense to send a perfectly healthy horse into the derby with such minimal experience when you don't need to. ARRRGH! People were up in arms last year about Barbaro's preps, but he was a seasoned veteran compared to what Ravel will be. Barbaro went into the derby with the Laurel Futurity, 2 Grade IIIs, and a Grade I under his belt. Ravel will have 1 Grade III and 1 Grade I... WHY!? (Sorry again for the rant)
i wonder why trainer and owners are
going more with racing horses lightly before the derby/ does it have to do with the health of the horse and/or are training techniques getting better so that they can get the horse ready with fewer races/ KC's mention of experience vs. perfect trips is a good observation / i would take circular quay right now, a horse that had to checked and re-rally through traffic than a barn full of ravel's/ chicago gerry
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