Derby Top 10 (Feb 20th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (5)
6. Notional (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (10)
10. Adore The Gold (new)
The Derby trail has started in earnest. From now on there will be contenders racing virtually every single weekend. This weekend featured the long awaited 2007 debut of Any Given Saturday and well his race was sort of anti-climatic which was what I was looking for. He rated kindly, took the lead easily and was a tad green but won under a hand ride and got a 95 Beyer for the effort. It was a good debut but he will need to get much better by Derby time. He has every chance to do so though and I much preferred his debut to Nobiz Like Showbiz's. Hard Spun was the other big name to run this weekend and he flopped badly. He layed over the field on paper but he had the outside post, never got the front and faded after making a smart move off the turn. He actually looked as if the distance was a little too much on him. He also appeared more comfortable on the lead. I'm keeping him on my radar for now but this was a very disappointing race. As a result Law Breaker actually moves up the rankings and Adore The Gold makes his first appearance in the top 10. The other noteworthy performance of the weekend was from Ketchikan. This Albert Stall 3yo won a two turn allowance race at the Fair Grounds in ultra impressive fashion. He got a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort and that puts him right in the mix with the top members of the crop. He will need a class test, and his breeding doesn't scream 10f so he's just the top pick on my radar list for now. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw bigger things from him. Major Pleasure also gets dropped from the radar after his failure in allowance company. Teuflesberg gets on the radar for his Southwest.
On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun (9), Belgravia, Exhale, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Teuflesberg
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2 comments:
Yet again, kennedy's corridor has an excellent 'derby top 10'/ i have 7 of the horses listed in either the top 10 or on the radar in my fantasy 'road to the roses' stable/ in addition, i have stormello, zanjero, and johannsburg star /i really don't have any great reasons for the other three, other than this is my first fantasy stable and i am not really sure yet what i am doing/ the problem is there are too many left out that i wuda and shuda put in/ those i cuda put in and whom i like are: summer doldrums, adore the gold, scat daddy, and possibly ravel/ after this long weekend i am gaining more respect for both notional and nobiz like shobiz, although i am not a great fan of the latter/ there are too many and like they say, you can't bet them all/ I was wondering, because i really don't know, how a horse gets selected for the field in the derby/ i have a curiosity about 'mens magazine' but i never see his name mentioned for a race anywhere, and at this stage, it is probably too late// in the end i am looking at any horse that finishes in the $ in the major races in march and april as well as any who have a last double 98 or 99 beyers or have produced a beyers of up to 112 during these two months // Regarding the 'rtr' and fantasy stable, i was stunned to learn that there are over 13,000 stables signed up/ i would never have guessed there would have been so much interest// Speaking of being stunned, hard spun's race left me with a big ? over my head/ i would never have bet him because of his value, and, like joseph, would have looked for another horse that might have pulled an upset/ although i have made $ with teuflesburg in the past, i would not have selected him because i have the feeling he is being over raced/ i had the same thoughts about smarty jones and afleet alex by the way, and both of them raced well in their respective derby's/ i may need to re-think my thinking on this and let the trainer make the decisions/ the gist of it all is that i had hard spun in my "rtd" contest and the least he could have done for me, as a favor, was to have hit he board / in regard to hard spun's trainer, although he knows more about training than i will ever hope to know, the thought i had at the time, while looking at the pp's, was that i wondered if he may have left the race on the training track/ his last work out especially, a week prior to the race, appeared to me to be overkill// Regarding the weekend races i saw that KC's pick for the daytona was pulled up/ i think all those who pick a horse who is pulled up ought to get a "mulligan'// The run by any given saturday appears to have pleased his trainer and it will be interesting to see if he goes forward// chicago gerry
I'll have to agree with gerry on a nice top ten selection. I'll post my own list sometime soon, but with the way I've been picking 3 year olds lately, I'm a little reluctant to publish my thoughts. Two horses that I am looking forward to following are Exhale and Buffalo Man. Exhale looked amazing breaking his maiden in January (better than Curlin in my opinion) and has been putting in works on par with Great Hunter heading toward the Robert B. Lewis. As for Buffalo Man, other than a flop in the Champagne, he has gotten better with each race, always finishes at or near the front, and has consistently faced pretty solid fields. (Another bit to watch with Buffalo Man is who rides him. Prado rode for the first time in his last race and if he comes back for more, it could be a good sign.)
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