Hallandale Beach
What a crazy race, you could easily make a case for most of the horses in this race but this time of year is often when you see the future dominant horses of this division start to emerge. So although this race looks very even it wouldn't surprise me if one or two horses separated themselves from the pack. when I first glanced at the race I figured it would be a match between Twilight Meteor and Soldier's Dancer but since taking a closer look I think I'm going to oppose Twilight Meteor. I think he just might be a better horse on all weather surfaces. I am more intrigued by his stablemate Pleasant Strike, it is notable that John Velasquez has chosen this maiden winner over the stakes winner Twilight Meteor. In his last race which was his debut on turf he broke from an outside post, stalked the pace closely and drew off with ridiculous ease. I think the stable has high hopes for this handsome son of Smart Strike and if any horse looks really capable of blowing the race open its him. However I wouldn't recommend betting him with both fists as Pletcher has been a little cold since coming back from suspension and there are a lot of good alternatives in here. Soldier's Dancer, who in my opinion is the class of the race, will be very tough. Just one narrow loss on the grass and consistently good figures, but maybe they're too consistent. If the pace is crazy he'll have the advantage but a moderate pace will stack things against him since he'll have to pass nearly every horse in this race. A good stalker could already be gone. Another horse I like is Rutledge Cat, his trainer Graham Motion is pretty sly with turf horses and although he was 4th to a few of these competitors in his last turf start I think he could be sitting on a big one.
1)Pleasant Strike
2)Soldier's Dancer
3)Rutledge Cat
Gulfstream Park Breeders Cup Turf
This race looks as wide open as the last one and kudos to anyone who can nail the winners of both races. Pletcher has a very interesting combination with Ramazutti and Honey Ryder. Honey Ryder gets the stables #1 rider and she has been very consistent, especially at this distance. She is most definitely a live candidate but I'm going to shade against her. I don't know how she will do against males and there are no shortage of options here. I have a soft spot for Ramazutti. He is certainly inconsistent and even his best race only puts him on par with what Revved Up and Honey Ryder are capable of. But he has run his best races at Gulfstream and the pace figures to be very soft. The horse he ran into the ground last out, Mending Fences, just came back to give English Channel a good race. He is a very dangerous horse and on the evidence of his last race he could be coming into his own. Jambalaya is another horse I really like. He has always been better going longer than 9f and he also prefers firm ground which he is likely to get. Sitting close to a softish pace will suit him just fine, again its what he likes best. He should also be a nice price, Canadians don't really get the respect they deserve. Interpatation will win a stakes race soon enough but I don't see it here, not with the pace the way I expect it. You have to feel for the guy. He closes very quickly and is quietly developing into a top class horse after being an allowance horse for so long. I think Revved Up, Go Between and Mustanfar will be over bet because of back class but I don't really like any of them. I think I may just go for a Pletcher double in the Gulfstream stakes but I do respect Jambalaya a lot.
1)Ramazutti
2)Jambalaya
3)Interpatation
Las Flores
I have to like Secret Scheme here. I loved her in the Sunshine Millions Filly Sprint only she didn't run there she went for the G-1 Santa Monica where she was easily handled by Pussycat Doll but still did herself credit. A price still may be available on her because of the hype horse Selvatica. I think she can handle her, her best game is sprinting and at her best she should be too much for the others. Nossa Cancao is again a good play if the pace collapses. She doesn't get much respect but she is a solid closer.
1)Secret Scheme
2)Nossa Cancao
3)Selvatica
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2 comments:
I see that Go Between is 12-1 on the morning line for the Gulfstream Turf. If he goes off 10-1, I don't think I could resist putting a win/place bet on him. He has a ton of talent and usually can be counted on to put in a professional effort whenever he runs.
Hallendale beach-good choices for a difficult race/ i don't understand jr's switch to pleasant strike but he must have good reason to think he has a better chance on the turf/ we'll see if it comes back to bite him/ also, i am going to try to use fernando po in some way on this race/ if i can get some odds i might go across the board/ basically i just like saying his name, 'FERNANDO PO'/ 90% of the time i am a straight up win-place better/ but this could be a race to dabble in an exacta or two// passport looks a little over matched but he did win his only turf race//Gulfstream park breeders cup turf- this is another difficult race/you can make a case for 8 out of the 11 runners and i think Kennedy's Corridors' selection are as good as any// mustanfar looks to ready for an eddie murphy but i am not crazy about jara/ revved up has the numbers to win, and einstein looks like he is really cranked/ Regarding honey ryder, i think pletcher has so much talent in his barn, he has difficulty keeping them running, especially when they are on form/ i think at times for him, it's like throwing spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks/ i do think in this case honey ryder is a viable candidate for the win and i like her a lot in this race/ she reminds me a little of lear fan at this stage and i wouldn't bet against her not to win or at least hit the board/ Las Flores-i can't really say anything against the selections by KC//for this race i will use the selections as presented and include maryfield in some kind of exacta and, with 12 horses in the field, i will take a flyer on maryfield and take her across the board// Basically, for me today, even though it many times it fails me i will be looking at the toteboard, top jocks, and top trainers/ for today it might be pletcher in the morning, pletcher in the evening, and pletcher at supper time//Odds and ends-I like Tahir in the 6th race at gulfstream/he looks ready to win at first asking, and i think a handicapper might get a little bit of a price because jr and pletcher are going to take some money/ it will be interesting to see what the wise guys and the smart money do in regard to Tahir/ he is listed in the daily racing form at 8-1//also, a horse i mentioned last weekend, Changeisgonnacome, won ($8.60 at gulfstream park wed., of this week// too bad i don't have the service that notifies you when a horse is running// I'll give myself props for this because the only other person who would give me props is my mom//chicago gerry
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