Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Weekend Review

Weekend Overview: This was the unofficial sprinters week, there were 6 graded stakes this weekend and the longest one was run at 8f, plus we had the announcement of the addition of the new Eclipse award for female sprinters. A few contenders wasted no time in making their claims for the distinction. Oprah Winney, Any Limit and Swap Fliparoo all grabbed graded stakes wins and served notice that they could be real contenders in this new division.

Performance of the Week: I'm going to give this to Teuflesberg, it wasn't the fastest race in the world nor did it feature the highest level of competition but lets be honest how may of us gave this hard knocker a shot at wiring the Southwest? I guess it was the old story, with so much speed in the race you either get a suicidal speed duel or a few jockey's change tactics and one speed horse actually holds the advantage. Teuflesberg was written off by many as a sprinter and given the way he's been thrown in (seemingly) over his head so many times in the past it was actually nice to see him get the win.

Race of the Week: The San Carlos looked like the race of the week going in and it did not disappoint. It didn't work out like I envisioned but what a battle between Proud Tower Too and Latent Heat. I wonder if maybe Proud Tower Too's connections will look at a jockey change. He outbroke the field but then was taken back and he never crossed over to the rail. That allowed Latent Heat to both come through and capture the lead despite his inferior early foot and also gain the rail. Obviously the didn't want Proud Tower Too going too fast too early but they could have at least made the even money favorite go around them. Proud Tower Too then went way wide on the far turn, that ground loss may have cost him. It was a thrilling stretch duel with neither side giving an inch. Latent Heat is finally realising the star potential he hinted at last year and Proud Tower Too now may own the distinction of the best horse to be winless in 2007. It's hard to believe this horse has managed to lose 3 starts this year.

Flop of the Weekend: Hard Spun without a doubt. Looking at the race before had I thought he had no excuse to lose the race. But it looked like his connections wanted to rate off the pace a little and he just couldn't handle it. I was always more skeptical of this horse than the general consensus has been but I fully expected him to wipe the floor with this field.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: We've added a filly and Mare Sprinter division to mirror the move made by the Eclipse Award committee. It just so happens that at this time two filly sprinters are in our top 10. Fillies and Sprinters always have a slight advantage early in the year because there are more graded stakes for them at this time. Silver Wagon also makes an appearance on the top 10 thanks to his big performance in the General George. He looks like a serious horse this year.

Tip O’the Cap: I'm giving this week's tip o'the cap to Conveyor's Angel who won the (G-2) Buena Vista. This is a 5 year old mare who had never even run in graded stakes company before but she earned some vindication for her last effort. In last January she ran in the Tuzla H at Santa Anita and she made a huge move around the turn and won the race at 48/1. Trouble was she was harshly adjudged by the stewards to have interfered with the favorite Movie Star who at the time was going no where. Conveyor's Angel won off by herself and her connections had to feel a little sore, even if you could make the case that she did interfere she ran such a great race it was a shame to be placed 7th. So they stepped her up in company and she wins this G-2 at 22/1. Justice was served after all.

KC Handicapping: Not a great week by any means. Gerry was right though in that it is much tougher to do the analysis the day before. If I play the races I will always wait until a few minutes before post time. There have been many times when I've changed my opinion for the better after having seen all of the contenders warm up. Any Given Saturday got it off to a great start with his easy win in the Sam Davis and the result of the Sabin wasn't to bad for me. I just got the top two switched around. That will happen, especially when you are preferring the value. Santa Anita was what really claimed my scalp. Taikun was pulled up and the closers never ran a step in the San Carlos. Proud Tower Too nearly pulled it out for me but Latent Heat was tough. Gerry had the right line on him. I also want to congratulate joseph for his Southwest analysis. I myself wouldn't have seen Hard Spun's demise coming in this spot or in any until the Arkansas Derby.

Cumulative record of selected horses 8-2-2-0 (-$6.20 -38.75% ROI)

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