Derby and Oaks Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Mar 5th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (3)
3. Liquidity (5)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Notional (6)
6. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Great Hunter definitely gave the best performance of the weekend. He looked like a monster and the move he made around the far turn was top notch. His pilot need to get after him a bit in the lane as Sam P wasn't not going away but you cant expect Great Hunter to do everything in his first start back. He got a solid 101 Beyer Figure which is right up there with the best two turn figures achieved this year. This race all but confirmed my suspicion that of the top 4 finishers in the BC Juvenile this was the horse who promised to be the best 3yo. of course we haven't seen Street Sense so that could change. But Great Hunter's race was nearly enough to see him in the top spot. Liquidity also moved up in the rankings, I slightly prefer him to Ravel now because of the lack of experience the Pletcher horse will likely have. Of course Liquidity still has all to prove when he runs in the Louisiana Derby, but the rumors floating around from the O'Neill barn are that he's actually the best of his trio. Nobiz Like Showbiz was the big loser of the week, all in all this was a disaster for him as he went backwards in nearly every respect. He still has never recorded a three figure Beyer. He looked all at sea in the lane and they weren't even going very fast. Sure he was green and unprofessional and that maybe can be fixed but he has one more race before the Derby and he has tons of issues to sort out in that one start. He still could do it because he has always hinted at having a great talent but I no longer regard him as a prime Derby contender. Scat Daddy justified his place in my rankings but I don't think his performance warrants moving him up. This was just proof that I had him placed right already. Most likely this horse is not going to win the Derby, I don't think he has a great chance of that at all but he could hit the frame. He's a solid classy little guy who is dangerous when he gets his trip which is making one run on the outside. Stormello looked good visually in the Fountain of Youth but they were crawling home. He has never featured in my top 10 because of concerns over his preparation. Currin talked repeatedly about the UAE Derby and the possibility of having just one prep. I respect his adventurous spirit but it makes me nervous, especially considering that his horse really isn't that fast and looks unlikely to stay 10f. I added both he and Sam P to my radar. Sam P has been around and is likely not going to have any real impact but I thought he ran a good race in the Bob Lewis and at this stage its hard to come up with more than a handful of real Derby type horses. Adore the Gold hangs on to his #10 spot only just. He couldn't close into a very slow final 1/8th but he did have the outside post so I'll give him one more race to show he belongs.

On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg


Oaks Top 10 (Mar)

1. Rags To Riches (new)
2. Boca Grande (2)
3. Baroness Thatcher (9)
4. Christmas Kid (new)
5. Get Ready Bertie (3)
6. Appealing Zophie (7)
7. Octave (5)
8. Autobahn Girl (6)
9. Cotton Blossom (8)
10. Runway Rosie (new)

Things have been much quieter on the Oaks front. There have really only been a few races that have had an impact. The greatest impact has likely been in eliminating horses. Dreaming of Anna is off the top 10 and is unlikely to even make it to the Oaks. She had two pretty bad losses and doesn't look to have trained on. Rags to Riches is the new kid on the block, she is woefully inexperienced but looks much better than the rest of the division. Baroness Thatcher who ran her to a nose in her last also makes a significant jump in the rankings. This filly is a bit underrated, I wouldn't rule her out of winning the big one. A lot of the big names from last season have really yet to get going. Boca Grande hasn't been seen in a while neither has Octave or Cotton Blossom. Lady Joanne got dropped off the list entirely because she hasn't recorded a workout yet this year. Appealing Zophie was tremendously impressive in her first start back and looks like she could move up even higher. Christmas Kid has quietly been the best distance filly in Florida in 2007. She doesn't have the back class of some of the bigger names but she may have improved beyond them.

On the radar: Early Vintage (10)