Derby Top 10 (Mar 26th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Street Sense (3)
4. Hard Spun (new)
5. Circular Quay (4)
6. Ketchikan (6)
7. Notional (7)
8. Nobiz Like Showbiz (8)
9. Scat Daddy (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)
Like last week the biggest news in this Derby Top 10 is that a horse has forged their way back on the list after being dropped earlier. Hard Spun gets put in the #4 slot which is his highest ever ranking. He had spent 4 weeks in the Top 10 but was never higher than 9th. His Southwest performance saw him moved to the radar list but he never slipped too far from the eye. Hard Spun's performance in the Lane's End stamped him as a bonafide Derby contender. I actually moved him above even Circular Quay. This was one of the best performances by a 3yo this year and his speed figure was superb considering that it was achieved on Polytrack which tends to play a little slowly. The reason I have him above Circular Quay is simple, when two horses have shown near equal ability I will always prefer the horse with more speed. Hard Spun showed that he can rate in the Lane's End but we also know that he enough speed to lay close. Circular Quay will always be somewhat at the mercy of the pace and luck. Horses with speed can make their own luck. It has not escaped my notice that the top 4 horses in this ranking are all headed to the Blue Grass next. I guess you could say I'm looking for the Derby winner to come out of that race. It should be a fantastic contest and a horse could easily finish as bad as 4th and still be a top Derby contender. Ravel was dropped off the list because of injury and Twilight Meteor because his connections are unlikely to pursue the Derby. Cobalt Blue got added to the radar list as did Imawildandcrazyguy who gets one more chance. The Florida Derby, next weekend, will give us an excellent line on Scat Daddy, Notional, Adore The Gold and Stormello. Three of those horses are in my top 10 and given that this is the last expected prep race for them we should know exactly where they stand once they cross the finish line.
On the radar: Officer Rocket, Curlin, Sam P, Liquidity, Zanjero, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg, Cobalt Blue, Imawildandcrazyguy
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1 comment:
great derby top 10/ things are starting to take shape and will shake out by the blue grass// looking at the list, i was wondering my what horses 6-10 on the derby top 10 and on the radar list, might be capable of posting a big win and big beyers over the next 3 weeks/ i guess it is hard to really know/ i was thinking curlin, even given his inexperience, might because of what he has done and because of his running style/ three others might be adore the gold, nobiz like shobiz, and stormello// other comments: will calvin borel be able to keep doing his patented bill bailey with street sense for two more races? /// borel is a talented rider but, if he forces that technique, i would think at some point he is going to run into a problem he can't get out of despite the obvious talent of street sense// was there a change in tactics with forefathers last out?// i was looking at a list of 4 or 5 of the worst derby winners of all time/ i guess the common thread is that they didn't accomplish much either before or after the derby// one wonders sometimes how these types manage to rise to the occasion on the one most important day in their racing careers//chicago gerry
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